North Korean Economy Watch

Daily NK
Jeong Jae Sung
11/21/2008

The North Korean authorities have been on the move to strengthen recent market regulation policies.

The 6th edition of “NK In & Out,” a recently released newsletter by the Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights (NKnet, Representative Han Gi Hong), relayed an order decreed by the North Korean authorities for the operation of markets every 10 days (on the 1st, 11th, and 21st of the month) starting next year, and introduced as an example some Pyongyang-based markets that only open once a month (on the 10th of every month) starting from last month.

According to the newsletter, an inside source in Yangkang Province reported, “The news of the ‘10-day market system’ starting next year emerged from lectures for government officials.”

A source from Shinuiju also said, “From November, the market maintenance office guards have been relaying the news of the conversion of permanent markets into markets that will operate much less frequently to the civilians.”

A North Hamkyung source said, “At a recent meeting of the People’s Unit, I heard that a new market management policy will come into effect starting next year. However, this is nothing new; all it is saying is that the jangmadang will be eliminated and converted into farmers’ markets, starting next year.”

The sources then pointed out that while the resistance of North Korean citizens will be strong, the possibility of actual policy implementation is deemed low.

The sources unanimously declared, “Similar news of the conversion of markets to the 10-day system or farmers’ markets began to circulate widely at the beginning of the year, but it was not carried out. If the jangmadang are converted into farmers’ markets right now, a riot will result.”

They also retorted, and expressed skepticism regarding the regulation of the market itself, “Most of the products that are circulated in the markets are connected to officials, so they will not actively step forward to regulate the markets and forsake their own gains.”

The “NK In & Out” newsletter relayed that irregular trends have not yet taken place in the markets in North Korea’s major regions. One Chinese trader who visited Dandong, China on the 10th said, “Markets are operating as normal, daily, in Pyongyang, Eunsan, Pyongsung, and Shinuiju.”

He added, “Among the rumors I have heard recently, there was one that private trade itself would be strictly prohibited from November 10th, but this news has been circulating for a while, so people are uncertain whether this will actually happen either.”

The newsletter released a rumor that graffiti and flyers saying “Topple Kim Jong Il” were seen on the morning of the September 9th National Foundation Day among North Korean citizens.

With regard to this, a Shinuiju source stated, “According to stories from merchants who have recently come from Pyongyang, the graffiti could be found near Chungsung Bridge on Unification Street in Pyongyang on September 9th. Flyers were passed out in the markets.”

He added, “The flyers also said, ‘What is socialism?’ ‘How can officials eat well while people starve?’ and ‘Let’s end the Kim Jong Il era’.”

Below is an excerpt from the Economist Intelligence Unit Views Wire 11/1/2008 (h/t Oliver): 

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The immediate outlook for North Korea’s foreign relations is positive. The country’s removal in October from the US State Department’s list of states regarded as sponsoring terrorism signals that the nuclear six-party talks (SPT, also involving China, the US, Russia, Japan and South Korea) are back on track, at least for now. The delisting also clears the way for North Korea, if it so desired, to apply to join the World Bank and the IMF, which the US was previously bound to oppose. However, the rollercoaster of the past three months, and the fact that the SPT are now in their sixth year, counsels caution as to the depth or irreversibility of any progress.

POLICY TRENDS: The omens for progress on economic reform are not propitious. Six years on from the “special measures” (the word “reform” remains discouragingly taboo) of July 2002, it is clear that these have not galvanised GDP growth, which was negative during 2006 and 2007, according to the Bank of Korea (the South’s central bank). Nor have they been a harbinger of wider or deeper institutional reform. Even though the North Korean state can no longer provide and most of its citizens must scrape a living from markets, the regime still seems perversely determined to keep markets in check.

ECONOMIC GROWTH: A reportedly better autumn harvest may bring some respite, but will not alter the fundamental plight of most North Koreans, who must scrabble to ensure even a meagre amount of food. Meanwhile, heavy industry, outmoded and worn out, has no potential to recover, and infrastructure remains in a parlous state. Transforming all of this would require two as yet unmet conditions: large-scale capital investment, which can only come from abroad, and the will to pursue genuine market reforms. The paltry energy aid and other assistance offered via the SPT is no substitute for the major investment needed, the precondition of which is complete denuclearisation.

According to Yonhap (hat tip to Oliver):

North Korean authorities are clamping down on private markets that have cropped up across the country, citing concerns that such business activities can compromise centralized control, a local civic group said Thursday.

Good Friends claimed in its recent newsletter that the government will allow private markets to operate only once a month beginning in 2009. Markets operate on the first, 11th and 21st days of the month at present.

In North Korea’s capital and largest city of Pyongyang, such measures have been implemented since October, said Good Friends.

The Seoul-based relief group said North Korean authorities expressed concerns that merchants who make a living by selling goods at these markets could contest or circumvent decisions and rules made by the state.

The markets have become an integral part of the local landscape, as they are used by many people to supplement their meager state rations.

Quoting an anonymous North Korean official, the group said the government’s ultimate goal is to shut down the markets altogether.

Although I am sure North Korea’s leadership does not enjoy competing against thousands of their uppity subjects (entrepreneurs) in the production of consumer goods and services, the scale of the DPRK’s marketization over the last decade is simply too large and ingrained in the social fabric to be eliminated now.  Preventing entrepreneurs from emerging into a powerful political force (and making sure they pay their “taxes”) while maintaining control of the economy’s “commanding heights” seems a more likely policy direction for the North Korean government at this point.

As an aside, I have located dozens of North Korea’s markets (including the largest in Pyongsong) on Google Earth (Download here).

Link to the full article below:
N. Korea clamps down on private markets
Yonhap
11/6/2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-11-3-1
11/3/2008

The Daily NK has reported that the use of bicycles for business and transportation around the city of Pyongyang is becoming more and more commonplace, with 7 out of 10 households owning a bike, despite the fact that the cost of a bicycle in the capital city has doubled in the last twelve months alone.

According to North Korean defectors, until the early part of the 21st century, bicycles were the most sought-after purchases, with only 30~40 percent of families able to buy them.

According to a source in Pyongyang, “If you go to a [market] these days, you’d see that people who sell or purchase goods mostly use bicycles,” adding, “With the exception of those houses with extremely difficult situations, most households have a bike.”

The source explained that the growing use of bicycles is not due to improvements in the lives of the people, but rather, due to a shift in mentality. In the past, someone wishing to purchase a bike would first have to save up money for it, while today they think they can borrow the money, even at high interest rates, and then repay the loan through business profits.

The Daily NK explains, “With the ubiquity of [market] trading and the increase in business competition, bicycles have become must-have items.”

In Sinuiju, as well, bicycles have become a necessity for traders. A source there reported, “In farmlands that are distant from the [market], bicycles are an important means of linking to city markets. The merchants can triple or quadruple their profit, compared with those that don’t own bicycles.”

Most traders with bicycles take orders from those living in farming villages, fill the orders in city markets, then barter the items in the villages for vegetables and grains which they then turn around and sell in markets for a profit. Competition is stiff as traders follow price differences between the markets in order to squeeze out even a 100 won profit.

Read two recent stories on North Korea’s bicycle culture here:
70% of Households Use Bikes
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
10/30/2008

People’s Safety Agency Targeting Women Cyclists
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
11/6/2008

Peterson Institute Working Paper
WP 08 – October 2008
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland

Read the paper here

Abstract: In the 1990s, 600,000 to 1 million North Koreans, or about 3 to 5 percent of the precrisis population, perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into 2009. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with direct observation to assess food insecurity in North Korea and its causes. We critique the widely cited UN figures and present original data on grain quantities and prices. These data demonstrate that for the first time since the 1990s famine, the aggregate grain balance has gone into deficit. Prices have also risen steeply. The reemergence of pathologies from the famine era is documented through direct observation. Although exogenous shocks have played a role, foreign and domestic policy choices have been key.

Keywords: Famine, North Korea
JEL codes: Q1, O1, P2

Although many would assume that North Korea’s economic isolation would insulate it from recent global financial instability, this does not appear to be the case.  According to the Wall Street Journal:

North Korea does little trade with the rest of the world — about $2 billion annually — and now it’s being hurt by lower prices paid by its biggest trading partner, China, according to report from a South Korean institute that specializes in North Korea research.

In recent weeks, the Chinese companies that buy North Korean ores and minerals like zinc, which are some of its biggest exports, have slashed the prices they’re willing to pay. That’s forced some North Korean mining firms to halt production and even produced a drop in the smuggling of ore and scrap, trade that’s illegal in the North but is believed to play an important role in supporting the impoverished country.

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Seoul-based Institute for Far Eastern Studies who wrote the report issued Thursday, said he learned about the commodity-trade problems from North Koreans doing business in China

“Chinese companies that are affected by global trends don’t want to pay as much as they used to for North Korean raw materials or resources,” Mr. Lim said. “Thus, North Korean merchants can’t make profits from trade.”

The price pressure exerted by Chinese traders on North Korean companies is in line with the broader drop in commodity prices in recent months. But it has imposed new burdens on North Korea in what is shaping up to be a terrible year there.

Official North Korean media have published reports saying the global financial crisis will ruin the U.S. and other industrial powers. But in the report, the Institute for Far Eastern Studies said “North Korean people are becoming very anxious over the possibility of the international economic crisis having a long-term impact.”

Below is the IFES report mentioned in the Wall Street Journal:

Global Financial Crisis hits DPRK economy by way of China 
NK Brief No. 08-10-29-1
10/29/2008

Contacts within North Korea are reporting that the North Korean people are becoming very anxious over the possibility of the international economic crisis having a long term impact as not only exports have dropped, but even cross-border smuggling is taking a hit.

Recently, as Chinese traders have more than halved the price of North Korea’s main export goods such as minerals and scrap iron, North Korea’s markets and even construction industry have felt the blow.

As North Korean state-run media outlets report the current financial crisis as the ruin of the United States and other capitalist world powers, they report as if North Korea were completed unaffected by it. On the 20th, the Rodong Sinmun emphasized that the the U.S.’ financial management system was ‘like a candle in the wind.’

However, it has been leaked that since last week, businesses in North Korea have been shutting their doors as a result of the financial crisis. In particular, the value of the North Korean Won has dropped sharply against the Chinese Yuan, and combined with Chinese traders’ reluctance to purchase North Korean goods and calls to lower prices, very little business is being conducted. This has led mines in Hyesan to halt exports of lead and zinc, and with the drop in legitimate exports, of course smuggling has dropped of, as well.

Furthermore, as raw materials from China are not being supplied, construction projects in the North are also grinding to a halt. 

(UPDATE) Barbara Demick reports in the Los Angeles Times:

Despite efforts to keep North Korea’s extreme poverty out of view, a glance around the countryside shows a population in distress. At the root of the problem is a chronic food shortage, the result of inflation, strained relations with neighboring countries and flooding in previous years.

Aid agencies say the level of hunger is not at the point it was in the 1990s, when it was defined as a famine, although they have found a few cases of children suffering from kwashiorkor, the swollen belly syndrome associated with malnutrition. Mostly what they are seeing is a kind of collective listlessness — the kind shown by the people on the streets of Nampo.

“Teachers report that children lack energy and are lagging in social and cognitive development,” reported a group of five U.S. humanitarian agencies in a summer assessment of the food situation. “Workers are unable to put in full days and take longer to complete tasks — which has implications for the success of the early and main harvests.”

Hospitals complained to aid workers of rising infant mortality and declining birth weights. They also said they were seeing 20% to 40% more patients with digestive disorders caused largely by poor nutrition.

The U.N. World Food Program reached similar conclusions. In a recent survey of 375 households, more than 70% were found to be supplementing their diet with weeds and grasses foraged from the countryside. Such wild foods are difficult to digest, especially for children and the elderly. The survey also determined that most adults had started skipping lunch, reducing their diet to two meals a day.

These are some of the same signs that augured the mid-1990s famine, which killed as many as 2 million people, 10% of the population.

“The current situation hasn’t reached the famine proportions that it did during the 1990s. Our hope and goal is to keep it from going over the precipice,” said Nancy Lindborg, president of Mercy Corps, one of the U.S. aid organizations working in North Korea. “You have a number of factors that have conspired to create a really tough food situation.”

In Pyongyang, the capital, residence in which is reserved for the most politically loyal North Koreans, plenty of food is available on sale. A grocery inside the Rakwon Department Store carries Froot Loops and frozen beef. At open-air markets, you can find mangoes, kiwis and pineapples

But the products are far too expensive for most North Koreans, whose official salaries are less than $1 a month — 60 to 75 cents monthly for the workers surveyed by the World Food Program. And the farther you get from Pyongyang, the poorer are the people.

Nampo is 25 miles southwest of the capital, on the Yellow Sea. It used to be a thriving port city, but nowadays its harbor is used mostly for shipments of humanitarian aid. On a weekday morning, many people sit along the sidewalk watching the few cars pass by. They appear to be unemployed or homeless.

North Koreans say that the food situation is improving and that a good harvest is expected this autumn, as a result of improved weather conditions. The last two years were disastrous because of heavy flooding.

“There was a problem before, but it is getting better. We expect a bumper harvest,” said Choe Jong Hun, an official of the Committee for Cultural Relations With Foreign Countries.

North Korea experts, however, are skeptical. “One good harvest is not really going to alter the picture,” said Stephan Haggard, a UC San Diego professor who has written widely on the North Korean famine.

The World Food Program and the U.S. aid organizations are providing food for the most vulnerable, including children and pregnant women. A U.S. ship carrying more than 27,000 tons of bulk corn and soy is slated to arrive in Nampo within days.

International agencies have been trying to raise money to expand their food aid to the general population. Many urban North Koreans are dependent on food rations, which have dwindled to 150 grams a day, or a little more than 5 ounces.

Even in Pyongyang, one can see signs of scarcity behind the facade of what is supposed to be a showcase capital. Foreign residents say they have seen homeless children in the last few months — a notable sight in a totalitarian country where nobody is supposed to wander away from their legal residence. (Los Angeles Times)

Read the full Wall Street Journal articles below:
North Korea Feels Effects of the Crisis
Wall Street Journal
Evan Ramstad and Sungha Park
10/31/2008

North Korean facade of self-sufficiency can’t hide signs of hunger
Los Angeles Times
Barbara Demick
11/2/2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-10-7-1
10/17/2008

It appears that many in North Korea are expecting an exceptionally large increase in this years’ harvest. According to a report issued on September 30 by Daily NK, a South Korean organization working for North Korean human rights, rice and corn market traders and those involved in food distribution are saying that grain harvests this year are significantly larger than last year, that by the end of the harvest season in November, North Korea’s food shortage crisis will be considerably eased, and that the price of rice will stabilize as well.

A source involved in China-North Korea trade at a company in Shenyang was quoted on the 30th as saying, “[North Korean] rice traders are expecting this year’s food production to be considerably improved compared to last year,” and, “This year, with no large natural disasters, rice paddies and crop fields are doing well, and crop production will probably be much greater than last year.”

In a related matter, one North Korean insider reported, “With the [North Korean] food situation, no one is doing as well as the wholesalers,” and, “As the fall harvest season has come, traders have come by farms in each province and reported that rice and corn harvests are very good.”

The source went on to say, “This year, farming was not difficult, so as autumn passes, the market price of rice looks likely to fall. The price of corn will fall even faster, hitting the 1000 won per kilogram level by mid October.” In fact, by the end of this year’s fall harvest, the price of food is expected to return to pre-shock levels. Currently, rice is selling for 2200 won and corn for 1300 won per kilogram in North Korean markets.

The reason harvests are expected to be more abundant this year is that the North has not suffered from flooding, as it had for the past several years in a row. Therefore, the government has called on the people to take care not to let any grain go to waste as harvesting is already in full swing in Hwanghae and South Pyungan provinces.

North Korean food wholesalers have become the suppliers of rice for markets since the government ceased to ration foodstuffs. They now contract with farms, paying in advance of harvest seasons so that the farms can use the funds to purchase fuel and other supplies necessary for preparing and transporting the food.

Because these traders personally visit the farms to predict harvests and set prices, the information is considered to be relatively accurate. These traders were also the first to predict the jump in prices earlier this year, warning of shortages even before last year’s fall harvest.

Markets work because price increases send entrepreners strong signals of relative scarcity and potential profit opporunities (unless these price increases are caused by inflation).  Entrepreneurs who pick up on these signals, then, have a strong incentive to move the desired resources from where they are valued less to where they are valued more.

A Chinese official in Jilin claims entrepreneurs in his province hear these signals loud and clear—and they respond the way humans have for thousands of years–they arbitrage:

The head of the grains bureau of Jilin, the Chinese province bordering North Korea, Zhu Yehui, says a drought in North Korea is very serious, and there is a lot of corn smuggling from China into North Korea.

He says the price in North Korea is more than 10 times the domestic price in China.

I am going to go out on a limb to suggest that these Chinese smugglers (entrepreneurs) are also delivering food more cheaply (on average) than the World Food Program, and I also am willing to wager that they have better access to “sensitive areas.” 

Addendum: According to Yonhap North Korea’s grain crop last year reportedly amounted to 4 million tons. The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization told U.S.-based Radio Free Asia last month that the North will harvest a half million tons less than last year.

Read the full article here:
China reports grain smuggling business active into North Korea
Australian Broadacsting Corporation
9/17/2008

Jerry Guo, a Yale University economics student who recently traveled to Pyongyang, wrote some interesting articles this week detailing his illicit adventures into Pyongyang’s Central Market (pictures below).

Pyongyang’s Central Market is located along the shore of the Taedong River and is visible from the Yanggakdo Hotel.  Unlike the larger Tongil Market located on the south side of town, the Central Market does not receive tourists or foreign visitors—and given the location, its customers would probably prefer to keep it that way.  So in a sense, an impromptu stroll to the Central Market offers every visitor to the DPRK exactly what they are looking for: a spontaneous glimpse at every-day life in Pyongyang.

According to Guo, that is exactly what he received:

But I wanted to catch a real glimpse of Pyongyang nightlife, so late one afternoon, I sneaked off unsupervised and hit the city streets. And much to my surprise, I didn’t see a single People’s Army cadet goose-step past me with those missile-launchers-on-wheels that appear on the nightly news. What I did witness: a mother buying a soda for her daughter from a sidewalk snack cart; two older women sitting on a bench, gossiping and eating pears; businessmen coming out of the subway, sans Bluetooth headsets; a grimacing teenage boy getting a haircut at a salon. (Washington Post)

Eventually he meandered into the Central District Market:

I had found myself in the North Korean version of Macy’s, but here, every day is the Friday after Thanksgiving. There were delicate blouses and dresses for around 15,000 won (roughly $4 at black market exchange rates), all sorts of fruit — thought to be nearly impossible to find in this mountainous hermit kingdom — and enough varieties of mystery meats to make my high school cafeteria green with envy.

…and he took some pictures (These pictures belong to Mr. Guo, and I thank him for letting me post them):

Above: Fruits and chickens for sale

Above: Side dishes/Sauces and clothing for sale

Above: View of the Central Market from the Yanggakdo Hotel

Taking these pictures, however, ushered in an unpleasant afternoon:

No one paid much attention to me, until I stopped to snap a few photos. Then a group of stocky women in pink dresses magically appeared. They half-wrestled me to a second-floor office while blowing fiercely on blue whistles, as if to announce, “Look at me! My first American spy!” For the next six hours, I was questioned and scrutinized by a procession of Public Safety Bureau officers, their rank identifiable by the quality of their outfits: the first wore an undershirt, the last what seemed to be a custom Italian suit.[…]

Eventually, they forced me to write a hyperbolic but harmless self-criticism, describing myself as “an American student,” “an incompetent trouble-maker” and “a genuine lover of the Korean people.” Then they booted me back to my five-star hotel.

Mr. Guo’s adventures have been chronicled in the following publications and they are well worth checking out:

My Excellent North Korean Adventure
Washington Post
Jerry Guo
9/14/2008; Page B02

A writer journeys into North Korea with Chinese tourists
Christian Science Monitor
Jerry Guo
9/16/2008

Yale Senior Enjoys Uncensored Day in N. Korea
National Public Radio
9/15/2008

And a caveat for future visitors: Although I personally appreciate knowing this type of information about the DPRK, I do not recommend other tourists take this course of action for numerous reasons!

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-9-11-1
9/11/2008

Police recently clashed with women who had worked as traders in the market in North Korea’s Chungjin, in North Hamyong Province, who were demanding that crackdowns in the market be less severe until city officials are able to supply food rations. This report was released on September 9 by ‘Good Friends’, a human rights group in South Korea focusing on aid for the North.

According to the report, on August 24, patrolmen carried out a drastic crackdown in the market, leading women claiming that they need to continue working there to occupy one area. Ultimately, fighting broke out between the two groups.

Women upset with the implementation of rules restricting market trading by women under the age of 50 also led an organized protest in the Chungjin Market last March, demanding that they be allowed to continue working.

According to local residents, this time, the families of the women who had traded in the markets were strongly resisting, causing authorities to become concerned. This has led Chungjin city authorities, after reporting the incident to local party authorities at an emergency session, to pass down an order to local police and market managers to “not crack down too hard until after the September rations are distributed.”