North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-03-12-1
3/12/2010

As the spring lean season approaches, the black market exchange rate for North Korean Won continues to grow, while the prices of rice and other necessities are increasing proportionately. Immediately following last year’s currency reform (November 30), rice was sold at 20 Won per Kg, while it cost 400~600 Won at the end of January and has grown to as much as 1000 Won per Kg in early March. In other words, the cost of rice has jumped 50-fold since the currency reform, negating most effects of the ‘100 to 1’ devaluation reform in just a few months.

The online magazine Daily NK reported, “In the North Pyongan Province area of Sinuiju, a kilogram of rice, which cost 400 Won at the end of last month, cost 800 Won on the 2nd, and 1000 Won on the 3rd. It is being said that the in the end, the price of rice will rise to pre-reform prices (of 2,500 Won per Kg).” The shortwave radio broadcaster Open Radio for North Korea reported similarly, stating, “North Korea’s rice prices, which were around 400 Won per kilogram at the end of February, shot up to 1000 Won on the 3rd of this month.”

More than anything, the reason North Korea’s rice price is doubling weekly is the plummeting value of its currency in relation to the PRC Yuan and U.S. dollar. In January, the (North) Korean Trade Bank set the official exchange rate for Yuan at 14.19 Won and for USD at 30 Won. However, according to Daily NK, the black market exchange rate for U.S. currency jumped from 1200 Won per USD at the end of February to 2100~2500 Won by March 3. Open Radio for North Korea reported that in Hyeryong, North Hamgyong Province, one Yuan traded from 80 Won on the black market February 25, jumped to 120~150 Won by the 28th, and traded for 270 Won at the beginning of March, tripling in just three days. It appears that the skyrocketing prices of food and goods in North Korean markets is directly related to North Korean authorities’ measures to control foreign currency, and Chinese Yuan, in particular.

Confidence in the value of North Korean currency has plummeted, and North Koreans are scrambling to grab up foreign capital as rumors circulate of further currency reform. Residents are trying to get their hands on Chinese Yuan, but North Korean authorities are working to prevent it due to concerns of Chinese dominance over the North’s economy. In order to block Chinese inroads into the North Korean economy, the government has banned the import of Chinese currency, and this is a major factor driving North Korean inflation today.

Daily NK
Jin Hyuk Su
3/8/2010

Rice price inflation, a key indicator of the spiraling inflation which has beset the North Korean economy as a whole since the November, 2009 redenomination, shows no signs of slowing down, with the price in North Hamkyung Province reaching 1,500 won per kilo as of the 7th.

A source from North Hamkyung Province told The Daily NK the news by phone yesterday, saying, “In the Nammun jangmadang, in Hoiryeong, at around 2PM this afternoon, the rice price per kilogram was more than 1,500 won.”

He also reported, “I called a friend of mine who lives in the Songpyung-district of Chongjin, and he said that the rice price per kilogram in the Sabong jangmadang there had gone over 1,450 won.”

The source added, “Although the Hoiryeong food distribution situation is actually better than elsewhere because this is Kim Jong Suk’s home town, since the value of the new money is continuously deteriorating and the exchange rate has skyrocketed, the prices of all products, as well as rice, have continued to soar.”

The source also noted that promised food distribution had failed to materialize. According to his friend, when Kim Jong Il went to Kim Chaek Steel Mill in Chongjin on the 5th, he told them that food distribution would soon be released. But, that has yet to happen; “just words,” as the source put it.

He went on, “The value of the dollar is rising uncontrollably. Since the economy is in such a mess, the dollar’s value cannot stabilize, only fluctuate.”

“Residents in Hoiryeong and Chongjin expected that when Kim Jong Il came to their Province, maybe to the steel mills, food distribution would be released, but there have been no practical moves on that.”

Exchange rates have also been soaring erratically, the source reported; as of today one dollar is being traded for 1,750 won and one Yuan for 250 won.

With a kilo of rice now costing an unaffordable 1,500 won, residents are growing more and more incredulous, not to mention pessimistic, about the future; “Suicides are increasing,” the source asserted.

“Last year, elderly people committed suicide because they were pessimistic about their lives, but these days, more than a few young people are doing it too.”

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-02-09-1
2/9/2010

According to a report from the webzine Daily NK, authorities in the North posted notices at the entrances of all markets across the country in the afternoon of February 4, setting state-wide standard prices for 100 different goods. The prices went into effect the next day. The notice reportedly stated, “In the case of foods not being sold at state-set prices, the state will confiscate all goods.”

The list of 100 items for which prices were set includes rice and corn, indicating that the government is allowing the sale of food items in markets (some of the prices can be seen in the table below). It appears, however, that the state-set prices are causing disruptions in the markets due to the significant difference between Pyongyang’s pricing and the actual prices for which goods in the markets are being sold.

Currently, rice is selling for 350 won/Kg, more than 100 won more than state prices. Corn, costing 180 won/Kg, is trading at 50 won more than the government is demanding. In addition, cooking oil and pork are selling for 1,000 won, 300-400 won more than state-mandated prices. Sources in the North report that, while market traders put on the appearance of adhering to the state’s regulation, many continue to trade at prices dictated by the markets.

Most previous attempts by North Korean authorities to clamp down on markets have failed, making it unlikely that this attempt to mandate prices will have any real impact. Actually, authorities have mandated ‘market price caps’ and regulated prices since the North’s economic adjustment measures taken on July 1, 2002. The government has also banned the sale of grains and other food, but this has not helped the North reach its policy goals and, in fact, has done little but stimulate black market activities. Furthermore, one reason for the recent and significant rise in inflation is the lack of policy for improving the supply sector at a time when currency reforms led to a sudden jump in the purchasing power of farmers and laborers. This adds weight to the argument that these latest price controls will not be maintained with any consistency.

GOODS PRICE (DPRK Won)
Rice (kg)  240
Corn (kg)  130
Pork (kg)  700
Beans (kg)  160
Cooking Oil (bottle) 600
Toothbrush  25
Toothpaste  50
Soap  50
Laundry Detergent 25
Athletic Shoes 500
Toilet Paper 50
Workbook  25-55
Lighter  70
Dress Shoes 1,300
Flashlight  500
Battery  100
Children’s Clothes 1,500
Children’s Padded Clothing 5,000
Socks  350
Apples (kg) 250
Egg  21

Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
2/5/2010

The North Korean authorities finally released fixed prices for 100 items across the country at 3 P.M. on Thursday.

A Daily NK source inside North Korea revealed the news today in a telephone conversation, saying, “The authorities announced state-designated prices for 100 items in a notice posted at the entrance to markets on Thursday afternoon.

Alongside the message came a warning, “If traders fail to sell goods at the stated prices, goods will be confiscated.”

The price list includes those for rice and corn. By implication, the selling of food has now been officially sanctioned in the market.

If the listed prices are enforced, however, confusion and anger are absolutely inevitable, because the gap between the newly-posted prices and real jangmadang prices is enormous.

For example, the latest real rice price in the jangmadang is 350 won per kilo, while corn is selling for 180 won; however the state-designated prices are 240 won and 130 won respectively. The jangmadang price of pork is around 300 won more expensive than its state-designated price.

Inevitably, therefore, traders’ increasingly wily attempts to circumvent the unrealistic demands of the state are continuing apace, “For now,” the source explained, “traders are pretending to sell for the released prices, but in reality they are selling for the existing jangmadang prices.”

According to the state price list, rice is 240 won per kilo; corn is 130 won; pork is 700 won; soy beans are 160 won; oil is 600 won; a kilogram of apples is 250 won; and a single egg is 21 won.

Meanwhile, a toothbrush is 25 won; bars of soap, tubes of toothpaste and laundry soap are all 50 won; sneakers are 500 won; toilet paper is 50 won; a notebook comes in various sizes between 25 and 55 won; lighters are 70 won; shoes are 1,300 won; a flashlight is 500 won and a single battery 100 won.

Children’s clothes are 1,500 won; children’s winter clothes are 5,000 won; and finally socks are listed as 350 won a pair.

UPDATE: Below is a table of prices from the Daily NK:

Click image for larger version

The particular regulations that seem to have been eased: the 10-day rule and price controls on rice.  No word on whether this easing is short-term or long-term in nature. 

From the Daily NK:

In an attempt to avert a food crisis and stem popular discontent, the North Korean authorities have reportedly bowed to pressure and started lifting market regulations across the country.

The decision, which apparently came into force at the start of February, may seem to be an abrupt one, yet it is largely inevitable. A food crisis has seemed to be on the cards for a while, while acts of violence against security officials have been occurring with increasing frequency and discontent among the people has been rising rapidly since the currency redenomination at the end of November.

An inside source reported the news to The Daily NK on Tuesday, saying, “Since February 1st, in Yangkang and Hamkyung Provinces, jangmadang regulations have been completely lifted. The price of rice, which had been more than 400 won, has now stabilized at between 250 and 300 won.”

The source added, “It is a good thing that the jangmadang is open. We were worried about a coming crisis as the rice price has been soaring and we have not been given any wages. That said, the people are watching the authorities’ next move, so they are still reticent to trade.”

Some foresee that, since the authorities have still not released state-designated price for rice in the jangmadang, they may be planning to allow it to just float with the market.

It is still unclear if the February 1st decree completely opened the market as it used to be or is just a temporary solution to avert a possible food crisis. Inside sources say they plan to wait and see.

Regardless, now that the jangmadang is open, exchange rates seem to be stabilizing as well. The dollar exchange rate, which was around 400 won, has fallen back to nearer 300 won in just two days.

Read the full story here:
Ban on Markets lifted
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
2/3/2010

Nicholas Eberstadt has some interesting statistics in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this week:

For a variety of reasons—possibly including unintended reverberations from the past decade’s nuclear drama—the remonetization [of 2002] did not work well. Too much new money was chasing too few goods, sparking significant inflation. By November 2009, the North Korean won’s black-market value in dollars was barely 5% of the level when the 2002 measures were implemented, a depreciation averaging over 3% per month.

…

The speed and depth of the won’s resulting plunge has been dizzying. The nominal market price of rice is reportedly higher today than it was in November 2009, before currency reform. This would imply 100-fold inflation and then some in just over one month. The won-yuan exchange rate along the North Korea-China border has reportedly dropped by almost 50% over the past month, even after discounting for the 100-to-1 currency conversion. The government apparently has no confidence in its own currency move, and is now betting against it. News reports indicate that Pyongyang this month is issuing soldiers in its public security forces twice their nominal monthly pre-reform wages (a 20,000% raise in light of the currency conversion). If the government finances more wage hikes like this by running the printing presses, it will turn the currency into a toxic asset no one wants to hold.

…

The botched currency reform also has revealed how little North Korean decision-makers understand their own economy, much less the outside world. On a related note, the regime’s supposed heir apparent, Kim Jong Eun, was the mastermind behind the North Korean currency reform, according to South Korean intelligence. This may just be bad intelligence or disinformation. But if accurate, it raises disturbing questions about the judgment of the rising generation of North Korean leadership.

Read the full story here:
North Korean Money Troubles
Wall Street Journal
Nicholas Ebererstadt
1/11/10

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-01-08-1
2010-01-08

North Korean authorities appear to be closing regional, large-scale wholesale markets, one after another. According to the latest newsletter from the North Korean human rights group Good Friends (January 6), “Based on a Cabinet measure passed on December 30 of last year, North Korean authorities will suspend operations management of the Sunam Market in Cheongjin [LOCATION HERE] from the end of this March, effectively deciding to close [the market].”

Like the South Pyeongan Province Pyeongseong Market [LOCATION HERE] reportedly closed last year, the Sunam Market, North Korea’s representative wholesale market, was built less than five years ago. Good Friends reported that provincial authorities from North Hamgyeong Province plan to raze the market, located between Chumok and Cheongnam neighborhoods, and build a modern park and residential housing.

The newsletter revealed, “More than 40 percent of Cheongjin residents rely on the Sunam Market to maintain their lifestyles, and if the market is closed, there will be considerable consequences,” and added that those who trade in the market or rely on it for their shopping are already worried about how they will continue to put food on the table if the market gets shut down.

It has also been reported that the Chupyeong Market [LOCATION HERE], in the Sapo district of Hamheung City, South Hamgyeong Province, will also be closed. The Chupyeong Market, which attracts as many traders as the Pyeongseong Market, apparently specializes in the wholesale trade of imitation goods. Good Friends explains that the Chupyeong Market is a very busy and crowded market, with many shoppers coming and going, and this has also led to an increase in scams, thefts and other crimes. It is anticipated that following the closing of the Sunam Market early in the year, the next move authorities make will be to shut down the Chupyeong Market, as well.

A directive has been issued that North Korean authorities are to ban the sale of manufactured goods in the country’s permanent markets, and that all goods are to be sold only in state-sanctioned retail stores, and at state-set prices. However, sources inside the North report that traders are gauging the attitudes of local authorities, and often not turning over their goods for sale in retail stores. This, along with the North’s currency reform and ban on foreign currency, as well as the increase in farmers’ wages, has led to huge increases in exchange rates and prices.

Currently, workers in state-operated enterprises are being paid anywhere from 1,500 won to as much as 5,000 won per month. With the currency revaluation, this is considerably more than they were making before, but taking into account the massive increases in prices, as well, the impact of the higher wages is negligible.

According to an AFP report that cites Good Friends:

Good Friends, citing its own contacts in the reclusive North, said prices for rice and corn doubled last week at markets in the capital Pyongyang and in the eastern port city of Chongjin.

Rice prices ranged from 120-150 won per kilogramme (2.2 pounds) in Pyongyang and 110 to 140 won in Chongjin last week — up from 40 to 50 won reported on December 30, the group said.

Corn also traded higher at 70-75 won last week — up from 20-25 won on December 30 in the areas, it added. Seoul’s unification ministry, handling cross-border issues, could not confirm the data.

The official exchange rate is 135 won to the dollar but the black market rate is between 2,000 and 3,000 won.

The report came as the World Food Programme struggles to raise relief funds for the food shortage-hit North.

Major donors — including South Korea and the United States — refuse to help in protest at its second nuclear test in May last year.

Statistics available at the WFP website display it raised 89.8 million dollars as of late last month, around only 18 percent of its target of 492 million dollars in relief funds for the communist North.

Read the full article here:
Food prices soaring in N. Korea: group
AFP
1/10/10

Good Friends (h/t Northeast Asia Matters)
North Korea Today No.316 Hot Topics December 2009

North Korean authorities publicly announced the official national prices in the markets. Contents of announcement are as follow: 22 to 23 won per Kg for rice, 8 won for corn, 12 won for crushed maize, 10 won for corn noodle, 22 won for flour, 9 to 13 won for tofu soy, 50 won for soy oil, 12 won for red bean, 10 Won for string bean, 21 to 22 won for potato starch, 15 to 18 won for millet, 45 won for pork, 50 won for chicken, 40 won for dog meat, 45 won for rabbit meat, 30 to 50 won for whiting fish, 35 to 45 won for sea bass (a set of 2), 50 to 100 won for clams, 60 to 100 won for Atka mackerel, 3 won for an egg, 30 to 40 won for dried pepper, 40 won for powdered-sugar (sugar), 3 won for a cake of tofu, 30 to 40 won for a fresh octopus, 3 won for cabbage, 5 won for radish, 35 to 45 won for a package of food seasoning, 300 to 550 won for a ready-made men’s suit, 350 to 500 won for a ready-made women’s dress, 200 to 300 won for men’s underwear, 250 to 350 won for women’s underwear, 35 won for a pair of men’s jogging shoes, 30 won for a pair of women’s shoes, 200 to 300 won for a pair of men’s shoes, 250 to 400 won for a pair of women’s shoes, 10 50 15 won for market fee, 0.5 won for bicycle storage at market.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.09-12-16-1
12/16/2009

In accordance with the recent currency reform in North Korea, new state-controlled prices were officially announced on December 9. South Korean NGO ‘Good Friends’ announced on December 13th that rice is now selling for 23 won per Kg, corn at 8 won per Kg, flour at 22 won per Kg, pork at 45 won per Kg and ‘matnaegi’, a common flavor-enhancing food additive, is selling for 45 won per bag. Other prices were also listed per kilogram, including crushed maize at 12 won, corn noodles for 10 won, soybeans from 9-13 won, soybean oil for 50 won, radishes at 5 won, artificial meat for 15 won, and cowpeas for 10 won.

On December 4, the Choson Sinbo, a newspaper printed by the pro-North Korean General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Jochongryeon), reported that North Korean authorities were planning to lower prices to the same level as was seen when the July 1, 2002 Economic Management Reform Measure was enacted.

At the end of November, prior to the currency reform, rice was selling for 1,850 won in Hamheung, 2,000 won in Cheongjin, and 1,700 won in Pyongyang and Sariwon.

In the markets of these four major cities, corn averaged 737.5 won/Kg, flour was sold for 1,687 won/Kg, and pork was 5,450 won/Kg. Pork is the only item now being sold more cheaply, while the price of all other goods went up with the currency reform.

A source inside North Korea has reported that most market traders are not following government pricing guidelines, however, and that the majority of goods are being sold at even higher prices than Pyongyang has set. In the market in Cheongjin, North Hamgyeong Province, rice was being sold for 50 won/Kg, and corn went for 18 won/Kg, more than double government prices. These high prices appear to reflect supply shortages and hoarding.

After the currency reform was announced, North Korean miners received raises, from a basic monthly wage of 6,000 won to the equivalent of 8,000 (pre-reform) won. Miners in North Hamgyeong Province can now put enough food on the table without needing second jobs. On December 4, the Choson Sinbo also reported that the government has guaranteed that living expenses distributed by factories will be distributed in the new currency.