Archive for the ‘Economic reform’ Category

SEZ Law Enacted by Supreme Assembly

Friday, December 9th, 2011

Pictured Above (Google Earth): The Hwanggumphyong and Wiwha Island SEZ on the Yalu/Amnok River which separates the DPRK and PRC.

UPDATE 1 (2012-3-19): Read the laws governing the SEZs here.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-12-9): According to the Daily NK:

North Korea has enacted a law governing activities at Hwanggeumpyeong and on Wihwa Island, two new special economic zones in the vicinity of Shinuiju on the Sino-North Korean border.

Chosun Central News Agency revealed the news this morning, stating, “The Hwanggeumpyeong-Wihwa Island Economic Zone Act was adopted by the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the Chosun People’s Democratic Republic.” It did not offer any further details.

The provisions of the new law are reported to have been circulated to various Chinese governmental and economic figures, and it is said to contain provisions reflecting successful elements in the development of China’s own special economic zones.

Naturally, one key part of the intent behind the new law’s enactment appears to be to reassure potential Chinese investors of the stability of the investment climate in North Korea.

At this stage, although there was a large opening ceremony for the zone in June this year attended by Workers’ Party figures including Jang Sung Taek, who plays a key role in the attraction of overseas investment to North Korea, the pace of construction remains limited.

However, there may not be long to wait. Dai Yulin, who heads the Municipal Committtee of the Chinese Communist Party across the Yalu River in Dandong told the China Daily back in September, “Concrete plans for the development of the Hwanggeumpyeong Special Economic Zone will be completed by the end of this year.”

Read the full story here:
SEZ Law Enacted by Supreme Assembly
Daily NK
Kim Tae Hong
2011-12-9

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S. Korean businessmen to meet in Kaesong

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

According to Yonahp:

Top executives of more than 120 South Korean companies operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex plan to meet in the North’s border city this week, in the first such meeting to discuss pending inter-Korean business issues, an organizer said Tuesday.

The CEO conference is scheduled to bring together the heads or local representatives of 123 South Korean firms and other related officials on Wednesday, said Bae Won-joo, one of the organizers of the meeting.

A Unification Ministry official said the meeting was designed to discuss issues related to the operation of the industrial complex. He did not give further details and asked not to identified, citing office policy.

Previous posts on the Kaesong Industrial Zone can be found here.

Read the full story here:
S. Korean businessmen to meet in N. Korea’s industrial park
Yonhap
2011-12-6

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Noland on DPRK inflation (post currency renomination)

Monday, December 5th, 2011

Marcus Noland has crunched some numbers to some up with an approximate inflation rate for the DPRK won after it was renominated in November 2009. According to his post:

The chart above shows the trajectory of prices for rice, corn, and the US dollar since January 2010 (i.e. after the huge step-jump in real prices in December 2009 following the currency reform). A simple regression of the prices (technically their logarithmic values) against time suggests that since the beginning of 2010, inflation on an annualized basis has averaged 131 percent for rice and 138 percent for corn. The won has depreciated against the dollar at a 136 percent annualized rate. A monthly breakdown of price movements suggests that while remaining high, the rate of inflation has attenuated, declining in 2011 relative to 2010.

The co-movement of the blackmarket exchange rate and grain prices would be consistent with a small, open economy in which prices are roughly constant in hard currency terms, but are skyrocketing in terms of the rapidly depreciating domestic currency. In the extreme this could depict an economy that was effectively becoming dollarized.

He also refers to a recent report that prices have not fallen with the autumn harvest and that that the DPRK had suspended anthracite coal exports to China out of fear of domestic shortages.

In general I think the findings are plausible and I am glad that this number is finally out there for the public to reference.  I have just a couple of additional points of inquiry….

If the price and exchange rate data are from public sources, then they are probably geographically concentrated in the provinces that border China. Since there are significant barriers to arbitrage in the DPRK, I expect a large degree of regional price differentiation.  Hypothetically, what would be the effect on these findings of an increase in observations from the “southern” provinces (if that were possible)? If the data are not geographically concentrated and represent a national sample, what would we expect to see if these regressions were run for each province, and how would they compare to the aggregated findings?

A working paper in the making?

UPDATE: A comment from an individual who works with Mr. Noland:

Thanks for sharing this piece on post currency reform inflation. You raise some good points on the regionality of our pricing data. It is true that we don’t have a lot of observations from southern provinces, but it is not all northern either. We get our price data from a number of sources including, but not limited to, Daily NK Market Trends, NK Today reports, and various NGO publications. This gives us a good mixture of general country level price data as well as regional data from provinces such as Pyongyang, North & South Hamyung, North & South Pyongan, & Yanggang. Before the currency reform, we also had a good number of observation from southern areas including North Hwanghae & Gangwon.

Marcus Noland and Stephan Haggard analyzed regional price differences in a previous paper, as well as discussing other issues such as the possible tendency to increase data collection during times of distress and the possibility that organizations might cherry-pick the data that they release, all of which could affect the statistical analysis of this data.

See the paper here (PDF).

Their analysis found that regional price differences are less systematic than one might expect.

On a related note, Ask a Korean also recently translated another Korean article by Ju Song-ha which deals with food prices in the DPRK. You must read it.

 

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North Korea’s new class system

Saturday, December 3rd, 2011

Andrei Lankov writes in the Asia Times:

It is often overlooked how much North Korea has changed over the past 20 years. Its Stalinist and militaristic facade is carefully maintained by the state, but in the new circumstances it is increasingly misleading. Behind this official veneer of militant posters and goose-stepping soldiers, the society itself has changed much.

In a nutshell, the past two decades were the time when the state was steadily retreating from the private life, and also was losing its ability (perhaps also its will) to control the daily activities of its subjects as well as how they made a living. One of many significant changes has been the steady decline in the significance attached to family background (known as songbun in North Korean parlance) – once the single most important factor that determined the life of a North Korean.

Family background did matter in other communist countries as well, but to a much lesser extent. For example, in the Soviet Union immediately after the 1917 communist revolution, scions of aristocrats, descendants of priests, and merchants faced many kinds of discrimination. It was more difficult for them to enter a college or to be promoted, and they were more likely to be arrested for alleged political crimes. However, this discrimination had disappeared by the late 1940s, so in the days of my youth, in the 1970s and 1980s, it had become quite normal in the USSR to boast about real or alleged aristocratic family roots.

North Korea is very different. In 1957, the authorities launched a large-scale and ambitious investigation of the family backgrounds of virtually all North Korean citizens. As a result of this and subsequent investigations, by the mid-1960s the entire population was divided into a number of hereditary groups, somewhat akin to the estates of medieval Europe. Career chances and life prospects of every North Korean were determined, to a very large extent, by his membership in one of these strictly defined groups.
The major criteria of classification were quite straightforward: the songbun (origin) of the North Korean was largely defined by what his or her direct male ancestors did in the 1930s and 1940s.

The official songbun structure was quite elaborate and changed over time. However, at the first approximation, there have been three groups in North Korea, usually known as “core”, “wavering” and “hostile” classes. Every single North Korean had to belong to one of these groups.

The “hostile class” included people whose ancestors in or around 1945 were engaged in activities that were not to the regime’s liking. Among others, this group included descendants of clerks in the Japanese colonial administration, Christian activists, female shamans, entrepreneurs, and defectors to the South. Members of the hostile class faced the greatest number of restrictions: They could not live in Pyongyang or other major cities and they could not be admitted to good colleges or universities. People whose songbun was exceptionally bad would not even be drafted into the military.

Members of the “core class” included those whose direct male ancestors contributed toward the foundation and strengthening of the Kim family regime. They were descendants of anti-Japanese guerrillas, heroes of the Korean War, or party bureaucrats. For all practical purposes, over the past half-century, only these people could be promoted to key positions in the North Korean state and party bureaucracy. They constituted the hereditary elite.

In the days of Kim Il-sung’s rule, from the early 1960s to the early 1990s, songbun was of paramount significance. It determined where people lived and worked and even what they ate. Most marriages were also concluded between people of the same or similar songbun.

It was also important that the songbun was, in essence, unchallengeable. It was inherited from one’s father and was then bestowed on one’s children. The mother’s songbun did not matter. I know a couple where the husband’s songbun was bad (he was a “landowner’s grandson”), but the wife had the best songbun imaginable, being a descendant of a family that once was involved with the anti-Japanese guerrillas of Kim Il-sung. Frankly, such a marriage was rare and unequal – in most cases women of such standing would be as reluctant to marry a man of low origin as, say, a European noble lady from the 17th century. However, in this particular case the marriage did take place, much against the resistance of the girl’s parents.

In due time, though, the spouses discovered that the wife’s songbun did not really matter. Their daughter, a promising athlete, could not be sent for further training, since her songbun was bad: the great-granddaughter of a minor landlord could not compete on the national level and, for that matter, could be accepted only to a junior college.

In Kim Il-sung’s era – that is, before 1994 – the state was in near-complete control of an individual’s life. The only way to achieve high status and affluence was to climb the official bureaucratic ladder. As a North Korean friend put it in the late 1980s: “I hate officials, but I want to become an official, because in our country, only officials can live well.” Indeed, in Kim Il-sung’s North Korea all material goods were distributed by the state and almost all income was derived from work in state industry or the state bureaucracy.

But things started to change dramatically in the early 1990s. The state sector, suddenly deprived of Soviet subsidies, collapsed. North Koreans suddenly discovered that food rations were no longer forthcoming and their official monthly salary would only buy 1 or 2 kilograms of rice. Predictably, mass starvation followed, killing at least a half-million people.

To survive, the North Korean people literally rediscovered capitalism. Estimates vary, but the consensus is that over the past 10-15 years, the average North Korean family has come to draw most of its income from what can be described as black-market activities. Actually the so-called black market is not particularly black, since the government – in spite of occasional crackdowns – has tacitly tolerated its existence since the mid-1990s. Nowadays North Koreans work on individual fields on steep mountain slopes, they establish private workshops to produce garments and assorted consumer goods, and they smuggle and trade.

The new and increasingly dominant unofficial economy is in essence capitalist. As such, it rewards those who are sufficiently industrious, greedy, intelligent, ruthless and disciplined – and in some cases, it rewards them handsomely. Social inequality is growing and many a successful merchant or workshop owner lives better than a middle-ranking bureaucrat. A successful entrepreneur might have all trappings of luxury – including, say, a Chinese motorbike or a refrigerator, which in North Korea can be seen as roughly equivalent to a Lexus and a yacht.

The success in the emerging new economy is usually unrelated to one’s songbun. In fact, sometimes it seems that people with bad songbun tend to be more successful nowadays – perhaps because back in the 1990s they had no expectations of the state and were the first to jump into the murky waters of the emerging North Korean market economy.

Of late, the previously attractive career avenues have lost much of their allure. For example, in the past, many North Koreans were willing to do their long and tedious military service, which lasted some seven to 10 years. This popularity was easy to explain: For a person with average songbun, this would be the only way to get into the bottom tiers of the bureaucracy. As a North Korean told it, recalling the time of her youth, the 1970s: “The only way to become somebody was to go into the military, join the Korean Workers Party while on the active service, and then come back to become an official.”

Recently, however, military service has lost much of its popularity. Few people would be willing spend 10 years in a squalid barracks so as eventually to become a minor official in the city administration. Such a job is still attractive, to be sure, but it seems preferable to become a smuggler or a merchant, whose income far exceeds that of a petty bureaucrat.

Still, on the very top, songbun is important, since the key administrative positions are held by those with good songbun, and a mid- or high-level official can make a nice income by milking the private economy. Hence people with good songbun still often think about capitalizing on the real or alleged contribution of their ancestors to the establishment of the North Korean regime. However, for a majority the emergence of markets opened a new, faster and more attractive (but also more risky) avenue of social mobility.

North Korean society has become defined by one’s relationship to money, not by one’s relationship to the bureaucracy or one’s inherited caste status. Money talks, and for better or worse, in North Korea, money talks ever louder. As a female refugee in her early 40s put it recently: “Under Kim Il-sung, songbun was very important, it decided everything. Under Kim Jong-il, things are different – your family background still matters, but money nowadays is more important than social background.”

Read the full story here:
North Korea’s new class system
Asia Times
Andrei Lankov
2011-12-3

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DPRK employment at Kaesong continues to grow

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

According to the Daily NK:

According to records released today by the Ministry of Unification, there were a total of 48,242 workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex at the end of September, up from 6013 when the project was launched in 2005.

Following the recent resumption of construction at the complex, the number of workers is now expected to grow further.

Revealing the data, an official with the Ministry of Unification commented, “Labor has been provided sufficient for Kaesong Complex enterprises to overcome labor shortages. If conditions get better allowing workers from further away to get employed, it looks like numbers will increase even more.”

The more than 48,000 North Korean workers in the Kaesong Complex bring in $50 million annually for the North Korean government.

As word of the good working environment that the Kaesong Industrial Complex offers spreads, the area is reportedly attracting internal migrants.

“The good reputation of Kaesong among workers has spread to Shinuiji, so they are moving to the area. But accommodation problems have to be solved before any can be hired,” the official explained.

The educational backgrounds of the workers include 81.8% with a high school diploma, 9.5% college graduates and 8.7% from professional schools.

Their base pay plus bonuses and incentives add up to roughly $100 dollars per person, though much of this is lost in payments to the North Korean state.

Here and here are recent post on road construction in Kaesong.

Here are previous posts on the Kaesong Industrial Zone.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong Still Growing
Daily NK
Kim Yong Hun
2011-12-02

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International Trade Fair held to attract foreign investments

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-11-30

Pyongyang International Trade Fair is held every spring and fall. The exhibition is increasing in size and attracting European and other foreign investments.

Japan-based newspaper, the Choson Sinbo reported on November 22 that during the period of the exhibition, over hundreds of business talks went back and forth between the North Korean and foreign companies and over 50 trade contracts and investment agreements were reportedly signed, with total amount of trade reaching in the millions in USD. At the Seventh Pyongyang Autumn International Trade Fair, held from October 17–20, one contract between a European company was reported to have been over 10 million USD alone.

Initially, the trade fair drew about 100 participating companies with just about 100 trade items. This year, however, roughly 300 companies had participated and over a thousand goods were on display.

It was also reported that “The items presented at the fair represented all sectors of social economic development with machineries, electronic goods, building materials, transportation, chemicals, clothing, food, medical and other consumer goods. In addition to these items, trade items are transitioning from light industry and consumer goods to the state-of-the-art products with CNC technology.”

Recently, multinational companies are exploring ways to enter into the North Korean markets through such international trade fairs.

According to the North Korean press, Chinese companies such as Haier, manufacturer of home appliances, and electronics and television manufacturer Changhong are in attendance at every trade fair held in Pyongyang. This time, particular attention was paid to European companies seeking investment opportunities in North Korea, such as a German paper manufacturing company, French flooring company, and Sweden’s GIA Industries, which is known as a mining equipment supplier.

The trade fair, which used to be held once a year in the spring, is now also being held in the autumn season to meet the increasing interests from multinational companies doing trade in Pyongyang. The scale of the fair has been upgraded as well. Normally the event was held only at the first two floors of the Three-Revolution Exhibition House; but to accommodate for growing size, discussion for building an international exhibition center is currently underway.

In the North Korean analysis, certain factors point to the success of the trade fair: 1) North Korea’s economic revitalization policy that focused on modernization of the people’s economy with large-scale construction projects, as these are gaining attention from overseas companies; and 2) North Korea’s assertive trade goals with economic modernization in mind and the hosting of international trade fairs, which are resulting in long-term trade contracts and an increasing amount of trade.

Additional Information:
1. Previous posts on the Pyongyang International Trade Fair can be found here.

2. Rason (Rajin-Sonbong) also recently held its first international trade fair.

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Hardship changes marriage patterns in DPRK

Monday, November 28th, 2011

According ot the Choson Ilbo:

More and more North Korean women are marrying younger men as their superior earning power makes them increasingly eligible. Park Young-ja of Ewha Womans University’s Institute of Unification Studies told a seminar Thursday more women are becoming breadwinners as the North’s economic hardship deepens.

“Young women are avoiding marriage or opt for informal cohabitation. And an increasing number of women are choosing younger men so that they can have more control in the relationship.”

One female North Korean defector in her 30s said, “Even if the authorities tell people not to, men are living with women who are five or six years older, because these women have experience making ends meet.”

The number of divorces initiated by women is on the rise as well. The regime is threatening to expel divorcees, but to no avail. “North Koreans don’t take warnings from the regime seriously because they believe that there is no need to report marriage or divorce to the government,” Park said.

“Recently an increasing number of people don’t bother to register their partnership and just go their separate ways after a few months or years if they want.”

Hardship Changes Marriage Patterns in N.Korea
Choson Ilbo
2011-11-28

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7 Chinese killed in road accidents near Pyongyang

Monday, November 28th, 2011

Pictured above (Google Earth): The Pyongyang Friendship Hospital, where the Chinese visitors are being treated.

According to Xinhua (PR China):

Seven Chinese citizens and three nationals from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) were killed in two traffic accidents near Pyongyang, the Chinese Embassy in the DPRK said Sunday.

On Saturday morning, a bus carrying 27 Chinese tourists overturned about 60 km away from Pyongyang, due to the slippery iced road caused by icy rain. Another bus with a 17-member Chinese business delegation plunged into a ravine from a bridge in the same section minutes later.

Ten wounded Chinese, including three seriously injured, were being treated at the Pyongyang Friendship Hospital, while the others were confirmed unharmed.

A work group sent by relevant Chinese authorities has arrived in Pyongyang. The Chinese Embassy activated an emergency mechanism and dispatched staff to look after the patients in the hospital on a 24-hour duty.

The DPRK government has instructed health, tourism and diplomatic departments to deal with related issues. DPRK officials have also visited the wounded Chinese in the hospital.

UPDATE: Adam Cathcart is also following this story.

Read the full story here:
7 Chinese killed in road accidents near Pyongyang
Xinhua
2011-11-27

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Dutch stamp dealer accused of being a spy in North Korea

Sunday, November 27th, 2011

By Michael Rank

A Dutch stamp dealer who was arrested in North Korea this summer has told how he was held in solitary confinement for two weeks and threatened with spending 15 years in prison for spying.

Willem Van der Bijl said in a telephone interview that he had visited North Korea about 24 times since 1998 in order to buy stamps, postal stationery and propaganda posters, and that three of his business contacts were arrested with him last August. Although he was freed after a highly unpleasant two weeks during which he was held in a two-by-three metre cell, he has no idea what has happened to his North Korean colleagues, but fears they will be severely punished.

He said he had been “intimidated” by his interrogators but not physically mistreated during his detention. “They yelled at me but did not hit me”, he said, adding that he was accused of being a spy apparently because of the large number of photographs he had taken of the North Korean countryside during trips to factories outside Pyongyang to discuss possible joint ventures.

He was released after signing a confession to his alleged crimes, and said the North Koreans confiscated his laptop and camera as well as a Kim Il Sung badge that had been given to him, but his money was returned to him. “I was happy to leave,” he said, adding that “There was nothing really wrong in what I did…All I did in North Korea was fairly correct”.

Van der Bijl, 60, photographed here with an interview in Dutch, said his North Korean colleagues were held in the same interrogation centre as he was and that he was deeply concerned that “They will have to face trial, and I will never see them again.”

Although mainly a stamp dealer with a stamp shop in Utrecht, he said he had become interested in collecting propaganda posters during his last few visits, and had a collection of thousands of posters.

He said North Korean officials seemed divided in their attitude as to whether such posters should be sold to foreigners. “The ‘doves’ say this art is popular in the west and should be sold; the ‘hawks’ do not want to export secret paintings, they are meant for the Korean people,” Van der Bijl said.

He said his hopes mounted every Tuesday and Saturday that he would be released as there are flights from Pyongyang to Beijing on those days, and as time progressed he became more worried that he would be sentenced to spending up to 15 years in jail for espionage. When he was freed he was told he could apply for a visa to visit North Korea again, but he told NKEW said he had no wish to do so as long as the current regime remains in power.

He said he had taken car journeys about 120 km outside Pyongyang nominally to visit companies to discuss joint ventures, but he was more interested in taking photographs of the impoverished countryside, and that North Korean factories were too dilapidated for there to be any serious chance of doing business with them.

Somewhat surprisingly, Van der Bijl is quoted on two official North Korean websites here and here before his arrest concerning local elections in North Korea in July. He visited a polling station during the elections and was quoted as saying, “Looking round the poll, I have been greatly impressed by the free and democratic elections and I have had a better understanding of the DPRK’s reality.

“In the DPRK every citizen is eligible to vote and to be elected. Those who have worked a lot for the people are elected as deputies. The popular election system of the DPRK is really excellent.”

He confirmed he had spoken to North Korean reporters at a Pyongyang polling station, but said all he had told them was that he had never seen elections run in such a way before, and strongly denied praising the elections as free and fair

Also surprisingly, Van der Bijl is shown wearing a Kim badge in two photographs of him on the Pyongyang Times websites. It’s rare for foreigners to be given a Kim badge and still rarer for them to be shown wearing one in the official North Korean media. Van der Bijl said he was unsure where the photos were taken. One of the websites shows Van der Bijl’s signature, copied from his passport.

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Aidan Foster-Carter on what’s wrong with the DPRK economy

Saturday, November 26th, 2011

Aidan Foster-Carter writes a compendium of problems facing the DPRK economy in 38 North.

Paraphrasing the ailments he cites: Socialism, militarism, royal economy, cult costs, potempkinism, leadership whims, rigidities, coordination problems, unwise leadership priorities.

Read the full story (which is full of fantastic anecdotes) below:
Whim Jong Il: North Korea’s Economic Irrationalities
38 North
Aidan Foster-Carter
2011-11-26

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