North Korean Economy Watch

The Economist
3/11/2004

So far as a visitor can tell in this secretive land, North Korea’s economic reforms are starting to bite. But real progress will require better relations with the outside

COMMUNIST North Korea has started to experiment with economic reform, and opened its door a crack to the outside world. Though its culture of secrecy and suspicion stubbornly persists, it was deemed acceptable for your correspondent to visit Pyongyang’s Tongil market last week. Here, stalls are bursting with plump vegetables and groaning with stacks of fresh meat. You can even buy imported pineapples and bananas from enthusiastic private traders.

But how about a photograph? Most foreigners think of North Korea as a famished nation, and the authorities are evidently keen these days to tell the world about the great strides their economy has made since reforms were introduced in July 2002. Logic might seem to suggest that a snap showing the palpable result of the reforms would be acceptable too. But it is not. The officials were friendly but firm: no pictures of fat carrots.

The July 2002 reforms were ground-breaking for North Korea: the first real step away from central planning since the dawn of communism there in 1945. The government announced that subsidies to state-owned enterprises were to be withdrawn, workers would be paid according to how much they produced, farmers’ markets, hitherto tolerated, would become legal and state enterprises would be allowed to sell manufactured products in markets. Most of these enterprises, unless they produced “strategic items”, were to get real autonomy from state control.

Almost two years on, how to assess the success or failure of these reforms? That climate of secrecy makes it deeply frustrating. Even the simplest of statistics is unavailable. Li Gi Song, a senior economist at Pyongyang’s Academy of Sciences, says he does not know the rate of inflation. Or maybe he is not telling. After all, he says, “We can’t publish all the figures because we don’t want to appear bare before the United States. If we are bare then they will attack us, like Afghanistan or Iraq.” So what follows can be little more than a series of impressions.

The indications are that the reforms are having a big impact. For a start, North Korea has recently acquired its first advertisement (pictured above)—for foreign cars, assembled locally by a South Korean majority-owned company. Or, to be more basic, take the price of rice, North Korea’s staple. Before the reforms, the state bought rice from state farms and co-operatives at 82 chon per kilo (100 chon make one won, worth less than a cent at the official exchange rate). It then resold it to the public through the country’s rationing system at eight chon. Now, explains Mr Li, the state buys at 42 won and resells at 46 won.

North Korea’s rationing system is called the Public Distribution System (PDS). Every month people are entitled to buy a certain amount of rice or other available staples at the protected price. Thus most North Koreans get 300g (9oz) of rice a day, at 46 won a kilo. According to the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP), that is not nearly enough. Anything extra has to be bought in the market.

In theory, even in the market the price of staples is limited. Last week, the maximum permitted rice price was marked on a board at the entrance to Tongil as 240 won per kilo. In fact, it was selling for 250. WFP officials say that in January it was selling for 145 won, which points to significant inflation, for rice at least. This is not necessarily a bad thing, since it means that the price is coming into line with the market.

The won’s international value is also adjusting. Since December 2002, the euro has been North Korea’s official currency for all foreign transactions. In North Korean banks, one euro buys 171 won. In fact, this rate is purely nominal. A semi-official rate now exists and the price of imports in shops is calculated using this.

Last October, according to foreign diplomats, a euro bought 1,030 won at the semi-official rate. Last week it was 1,400. A black market also exists, in which the euro is reported to be fetching 1,600 won—which implies that the won is approaching its market level. It also means, however, that imported goods have seen a big price-hike. For domestically-produced goods, like rice, prices may well go on rising for a good while longer.

What about earnings? Before the 2002 reforms, most salaries lay in the range of 150-200 won per month. Rent and utilities, though, were virtually free, as were (and are) education and health care. Food, via the PDS, was virtually given away. Now, pay is supposed to be linked to output, though becoming more productive is not easy for desk-bound civil servants or workers in factories that have no power, raw materials or markets.

Rents and utilities have gone up, though not by crippling amounts. A two-bedroom flat in Pyongyang including electricity, water and heat costs just 150 won a month—that is, about a tenth of a euro.

Earnings have gone up much more: a waitress in a Pyongyang restaurant earns about 2,200 won a month. A mid-ranking government official earns 2,700. A worker at a state farm earns in the region of 1,700, a kindergarten teacher the same, and a pensioner gets between 700 and 1,500. A seamstress in a successful factory with export contracts can earn as much as 5,000 won a month. Since that seamstress’s pay equates to barely three euros a month, wages still have a long way to adjust.

The prices of food and other necessities, to say nothing of luxuries, has gone up much more than rent has. According to the WFP, some 70% of the households it has interviewed are dependent on their 300 gram PDS ration, and the WFP itself is targeting 6.5m vulnerable people out of a total population of some 23m. Not all suffer equally: civil servants in Pyongyang get double food rations from the PDS.

There are some encouraging stories. In Pukchang, a small industrial town 70km (40 miles) north-east of Pyongyang, Concern, an Irish aid group, has been replacing ancient, leaking and broken-down water pipes and pumps, and modernising the purification system. This has pushed the amount of clean water available per person per day from 80 to 300 litres. Kim Chae Sun is a manager at the filtration plant, which is now more efficient. Before July 2002 she earned 80 won a month. Afterwards she earned 3,000 won. Now she earns 3,500.

As Mrs Kim speaks, three giant chimneys belch smoke from the power station that dominates the town. All workers have been told they can earn more if they work harder, but certain groups have been told they will get even more money than everyone else. In energy-starved North Korea these include miners and power workers. Mrs Kim says her husband, who works in the power plant, earns an average of 12,000 won a month. Her rent has gone up from eight to 102 won a month, and in a year, she thinks, she will be able to buy a television or a fridge.

A lot of people, in fact, are buying televisions. The women who sell the sets from crowded Tongil market-stalls get them from trading companies which they pay after making a sale. The company price for an average set is 72,000 won, the profit just 1,000 won. After they have paid for their pitch, the traders can expect an income of 10,000-12,000 won a month.

Mystery sales
Which makes for a puzzle. Who can afford a good month’s salary for a locally made jacket in Tongil, costing 4,500 won? How come so many people are buying televisions, which cost more than two years of a civil-servant’s pay? How come the number of cars on the streets of the capital has shot up in the past year? Pyongyang still has vastly less traffic than any other capital city on earth, but there are far more cars around than a year ago. Restaurants, of which there are many, serve good food—but a meal costs the equivalent of at least a white-collar worker’s monthly salary. Many of these restaurants are packed.

Foreign money is part of it. Diplomats and aid workers say many new enterprises seem to have opened over the last year. Nominally they are state-owned, but sometimes they have a foreign partner, often an ethnic Korean from Japan. The majority are in the import-export business. Some have invested in restaurants and hotels and some in light industry. Thanks to the 2002 reforms, these firms have a degree of autonomy they could not have dreamed of before. An unknown number of people also receive money from family abroad, but there are still no North Korean-owned private companies.

Farmers are among the other winners: they can sell any surpluses on the open market. But two out of three North Koreans live in towns and cities, and only 18% of the country is suitable for agriculture. The losers include civil servants, especially those outside Pyongyang who do not get double food rations and have no way to increase their productivity.

Factory workers have it the hardest. A large proportion of industry is obsolete. Though Pyongyang has electricity most of the day, much of the rest of the country does not. Despite wild talk of a high-tech revolution, the country is not connected to the internet, though some high-ups do have access to e-mail service. In the east of the country lies a vast rustbelt of collapsing manufacturing plants.

Huge but unknown numbers of workers have been moved into farming, even though every scrap of available land is already being cultivated. The extra workers are needed because there is virtually no power for threshing and harvesting and no diesel for farm vehicles. This requires more work to be done by hand. Ox-carts are a common sight.

The innocent suffer
Markets are everywhere. But this does not mean that there is enough food everywhere. In Pyongyang, where there are better-off people to pay for it, there is an ever-increasing supply. Outside the capital, shortages are widespread.

No one knows how many died during the famine years of 1995-99; estimates range from 200,000 to 3m. In Pukchang, officials say that 5% of children are still weak and malnourished. In Hoichang, east of Pyongyang, schools and institutions tell the WFP that about 10% of children are malnourished. Masood Hyder, the senior UN official in North Korea, says that vulnerable households now spend up to 80% of their income on food.

And yet some things are improving. Two surveys carried out in 1998 and 2002 by the North Korean government together with the WFP and Unicef showed a dramatic improvement in children’s health between those years. The proportion of children who fail to reach their proper height because of malnutrition fell from 62% to 39%, and the figures are thought to be still better now. However, Unicef says that though children may no longer die of hunger, they are still dying from diarrhoea and respiratory diseases—which are often a side-effect of malnutrition.

To a westerner’s eye, a class of 11-year-olds in Hoichang is a shocking sight. At first, your correspondent thought they were seven; the worst-affected look to be only five. Ri Gwan Sun, their teacher, says that apart from being stunted some of them still suffer from the long-term effects of malnutrition. They struggle to keep up in sports and are prone to flu and pneumonia. They are also slower learners.

Pierrette Vu Thi of Unicef says that North Korea’s poor international image makes it hard for her agency, the WFP and others to raise all the money they need. The country is in a chronic state of emergency, she says, and to get it back on its feet it would need a reconstruction effort on the scale of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Such bleak talk is echoed by Eigil Sorensen of the World Health Organisation. He says that health services are extremely limited outside the capital. Medicines and equipment are in short supply, large numbers of hospitals no longer have running water or heating and the country has no capacity to handle a major health crisis.

None of this is likely to change very fast. With no end yet to the nuclear stand-off between North Korea and the United States, American and Japanese sanctions will remain in place. And nukes are only part of it. Last week the American State Department said it was likely that North Korea produced and sold heroin and other narcotics abroad as a matter of state policy. North Koreans who have fled claim that up to 200,000 compatriots are in labour camps. North Korea denies it all.

Reform, such as it is, has plainly made life easier for many. But rescuing the North would take large amounts of foreign money, as well as measures more far-reaching than have yet been attempted. At present, there is no way for the government to get what it needs from international financial institutions like the World Bank. Such aid as comes will be strictly humanitarian, and investment in so opaque a country will never be more than tentative. Domestic reform on its own cannot fix an economy wrecked by decades of mismanagement and the collapse of communism almost everywhere else.

According to the Guardian:

There is a capitalist pig in Ri Dok-sun’s garden. There are also two capitalist dogs and a brood of capitalist chicks. But even though Ms Ri, a 72-year-old North Korean, lives in the world’s last Orwellian state, this is no animal farm.  The beasts are the product of the growing free market pressure on a government that claims to be the last truly socialist country on earth.

Although Ms Ri and her family live in Chonsan – a model cooperative farm – the bacon from their pig will be sold on the open market. The dog is there to guard their private property. And their chicks – kept in a box in the cosy, brightly decorated living room – are being raised for individual gain rather than the good of the collective.

It is a form of private enterprise – one of the innumerable microfarms that have sprung up in gardens, and even on balconies, particularly since the late 1990s. Initially, they were just for survival, a source of food in a country that has been devastated by famine in the past decade. But increasingly, they are also a means of pursuing profit as the government ventures further into capitalist waters.

Although its military is locked in a nuclear standoff with the US, the world’s last cold war holdout has cautiously pursued economic reforms that are already making an impact in the countryside and on the streets of Pyongyang. Over the past year, far more cars have appeared on the formerly deserted roads – even the occasional six-vehicle tailback. Building sites dot the city, a new culture museum is under construction and the skyline has a new feature: more than a dozen giant cranes.

Three months ago, the first government-sanctioned market in the country’s history opened. Compared with the dusty, quiet, almost empty state department stores, Pyongyang’s Tongil Market is a hive of activity and noise. Shoppers haggle noisily with the 150 or so stall holders for a staggering range of goods; second-hand Japanese TVs, Burmese whisky and Korean dogmeat. Most of the goods are from China. Some – including western diarrhoea pills which sell for 3p apiece – are kept under the table.

Prices are determined by the market, not – as is the case everywhere else – by the state. Even staples, usually provided under the public distribution system, can be had here.

A kilogram of rice costs 165 won, about 10p, but it would cost about £1 from the government because the black market traders offer a much better rate for foreign currency than the state.

A stallholder said business was booming. “Since we opened, the number of customers has surged. They really like this place – but we have to fight for business because the competition is growing all the time.” Outside, builders were constructing new stalls for the fast-expanding market.

In the past foreigners were not permitted to see semi-legal farmers’ markets, but here they are welcome to come shopping. The openness and activity suggest that Tongil market is the best hope for North Korea’s future – one that would bring it closer in line with the successful economic reforms that have transformed neighbouring China.

Nobody here dares to call it capitalism, but that is the direction North Korea is headed. Last year the government liberalised prices, gave private enterprises more independence, and encouraged farmers to pursue profits.

“We are still building our socialist system, but we have taken measures to expand the open market,” said So Chol, a spokesman for the foreign ministry. “They are only the first steps and we shouldn’t expect too much yet, but they are already showing positive results.”

It is impossible to say whether the reforms are really a success. But harvests are believed to have improved. Compared with a year ago, there appear to be many more tractors in the countryside, and huge quantities of foreign aid have eased malnutrition.

But the improvements are from a very low base. Continued shortages mean the UN world food programme still has to support more than 3 million children, mothers and elderly. Aid workers believe the market liberalisation may have worsened the situation for those stuck in run-down industrial towns where wages are said to be as low as £1 a month. “We’re seeing a growing disparity of income and access to food,” said Rick Corsino, head of the WFP’s operation in North Korea. “Some people are now having to spend all of their income on food and that’s for a diet that it totally inadequate.”

The full social implications of the reforms are still to be seen. Several Pyongyang watchers said they were amazed at the transformation in the past year and concerned about the implications. “The extremes of poverty and wealth are growing as market relations increasingly define the economy,” said Hazel Smith of the United Nations University in Tokyo. “Now there is no socialist economy, but also no rule of law for the market. That is the basis of corruption.”

But there are still limits on capitalist activity. Farmers said they had more money, but no freedom to spend it. Academics at the Kimchek Technology University said they had been told to link their research into mobile phones, encryption software and computing with private enterprises, but so far they had been unable to find business opportunities. At least some of the barriers are psychological, the result of years of being told to simply obey the “great leader” Kim Jong-il.

Even young software programmers who were fast-tracked through university graduation three years early so they could build the country’s IT system said they were not interested in becoming tycoons.

“I entered this field because Kim Jong-il called for an IT revolution,” said Kim Seong-chol, a 23-year-old software developer. “But my ambition is not to get rich, but to make my country a leader in the field of information technology. That will make North Korea wealthy.” 

Accoding to the Washington Post:

By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, December 2, 2003; C01

MOUNT KUMGANG

In the surreal world of North Korean tourism, you can feast on local delicacies served by glamorous lady comrades, watch an acrobatics show infused with Stalinist humor and climb a storied mountain covered with plaques and monuments celebrating the totalitarian Kim clan.

But be back indoors by the midnight curfew — or face fines, questioning by authorities or, well, worse.

This is Mount Kumgang, the fortified tourist compound where the Hermit Kingdom meets the Magic Kingdom, right down to Disneyesque guys in fuzzy bear suits greeting visitors. A window into hermetically sealed North Korea since foreign visitors were granted limited access five years ago, it lies an hour’s drive north of the minefields and missile batteries lining the most heavily militarized border in the world.

Here, tension is part of the attraction.

“Look, quick! North Korean soldiers!” one excited South Korean yelled to other tourists on a bus after spotting an armed squad marching by. They tripped over each other trying to get a better view.

The over-the-rainbow quality of the place offers a rare, if hyper-controlled, glimpse at life on the Cold War’s last frontier.

“You are supposed to relax and have a good time,” said Jang Whan Bin, senior vice president of investor relations at Hyundai Asan Corp., the South Korean company that financed and operates most of the resort. “But this is still North Korea. Things are quite different here.”

On this mountain, about which the famous Chinese Sang Dynasty poet Sudongpo wrote, “I would have no regrets in my lifetime were I to see Mount Kumgang just once,” the jagged cliffs and glistening waterfalls now take a back seat to homages erected to the Kims, the only father-and-son act in Stalinist history.

More than half a century ago, Kim Il Sung founded the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea — i.e., North Korea. His son, Kim Jong Il, took the helm following the elder Kim’s death in 1994. The son is said to have entered this world on a mountaintop, his birth heralded by lightning bolts and a double rainbow. Recently named “Guardian of Our Planet” by the North Koreans, Kim Jong Il rules through a cult of personality that is alive and well in Mount Kumgang.

No act of the Kims is too small to be noted on these ancient rocks, now coated with more than 4,000 monuments, etchings and other commemorative inscriptions to the clan. A spot where Kim Il Sung is said to have especially appreciated the view is dutifully marked with a six-foot-tall stone tablet. Elsewhere a young guard stood by an etching commemorating the exact location where Kim Jong Sook, mother of the younger Kim, once rested her weary bones.

This is an important landmark, insisted the female guard, who watches over foreign visitors and keeps out unauthorized North Koreans. Her eyes went wide when asked about the need for a monument in a place of such natural beauty.

“She was the beloved wife of the Great Leader!” fumed the guard in her fashionable red jacket with a matching propaganda pin bearing Kim Il Sung’s face. “Don’t you have a father? Isn’t he the absolute ruler of your family? Mustn’t he be obeyed? You must understand, Kim Il Sung is the father of our nation and we are his children. Everything related to him must be celebrated.”

“Including his wife?” she is asked.

“Do not just call her his wife! Use her title!” she demanded.

What title?

“Her title! How can you not know her title?” Exasperated, the guard explained that Kim’s wife must be referred to as “Great Revolutionary General Kim Jong Sook.”

Most of this sprawling tourist complex, including hotel, hot springs and duty-free shops including Prada and Gucci, is run by Hyundai Asan, which each month brings in about 15,000 people, mostly South Koreans. The North Koreans feared so many foreigners would contaminate the minds of the locals, so the vast majority of employees here are ethnic Koreans shipped in from China.

But two restaurants do employ local staff, and it’s there that foreigners have their best chance to interact with unarmed North Koreans. Waitresses wear ’50s-style heavy makeup and modest attire. One nervous server fled from a table of foreigners every time she was asked a question. In another restaurant, a waitress looked stunned after a foreign guest asked her where one could buy a Kim Il Sung lapel pin like the one she wore.

She tilted her powdered face skyward, raising one arm to gently cup the pin with her hand.

“This,” she proclaimed, “is not fashion. It cannot be bought in a store.”

She went on: “This is a symbol of my love for the great founder of my nation.”

Among the top attractions here is an acrobatics troupe shipped in from Pyongyang.

In one act, a disco version of the North Korean folk favorite “Nice to Meet You” plays as 10 men in stylized sailor suits, heavy rouge and blue eye shadow soar in front of a projected backdrop of sacred Mount Paektu, where Kim Jong Il is said to have entered the world with the blessing of Heaven. In a comedy act, a strongman wearing communist red gets the better of a weakling decked out in blue.

Lest the mountains, lakes and tourist attractions lull you into a false sense of security, officials constantly remind guests that they are surrounded by a military installation that includes a naval base across the port from where a small cruise ship docks each week. Visitors are instructed not to talk to the locals about politics or economics. Two years ago, one South Korean woman merely suggested that her nation, which is 13 times as wealthy as the communist North, had a higher standard of living. She was arrested and held for seven days until Hyundai negotiated her release. Photos here are limited to shots of the tourist installations and specified views of Mount Kumgang itself.

There are no exceptions.

One Dutch visitor captivated by the serenity of the scene snapped a digital photo of the mountain setting with a happy sign in the background declaring “Welcome to Mount Kumgang.” But she inadvertently clicked just as two North Korean soldiers with sidearms were walking by.

“Hey, you!” they barked in Korean. “Come here!”

“The soldiers were not amused,” said Eunmi Postma, a Dutch journalist based in Seoul.

They demanded the tourist’s camera and asked to see her passport.

“But, I mean, all I did was try to take a picture of the welcome sign,” she said. “The soldiers were so far away you couldn’t even make them out in the photo. I finally deleted the picture so they wouldn’t take my camera.

“I know it’s North Korea, but still, this is supposed to be a tourism resort. . . . What a weird place.”

From the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive:

North Korea: Channeling Foreign Information Technology, Information to Regime Goals Pyongyang is working with Koreans abroad and other foreign partners in information technology (IT) ventures, sending software developers overseas for exposure to international trends, granting scientists access to foreign data, and developing new sources of overseas information in a bid to develop the economy. Cellular telephones and Web pages are accessible to some North Koreans, while foreigners in Pyongyang have access to foreign television news and an Internet café. While such steps are opening windows on the world, however, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) oficials are largely limiting such exposure to areas required for economic development. Moreover, they are applying IT tools to develop new means of indoctrinating the public in North Korea and reaching audiences overseas.

Working With Foreign Partners in IT Ventures
North Korea is promoting cooperative ventures with foreign partners to develop IT, which DPRK media have repeatedly described as a priority area in science and technology. An editorial in the 10 November 2003 issue of the party newspaper Nodong Sinmun, for example, named IT as the first of three technical fields, along with nanotechnology and bioengineering, to which “primary efforts should be directed.”

North Korean media suggest that officials have grasped the potential of leveraging IT for national development. A recent article in the government’s newspaper asserted that (1) “IT trade surpasses the automobile and crude oil industries” and (2) “IT goods are more favorable in developing countries than they are in the developed nations” (Minju Choson, 7 March).

ROK analysts, such as those who compiled a survey of Pyongyang’s IT industry (Puhkan-ui IT Hyonhwang-mit Nambuk Kyoryu Hyomnyok Pangan, 1 January), have suggested that DPRK policies for promoting a domestic IT industry reflect the nation’s lack of capital, dearth of natural resources, and relative abundance of technical talent.  Hoonnet.com CEO Kim Pom-hun, whose extensive experience in North Korea includes residence in Pyongyang from December 2001 to October 2002, has assessed North Korean IT manpower as resembling “an open mine with the world’s best reserves of high-quality ore” ( Wolgan Choson, 1 January).

Pyongyang is partnering with Koreans in South Korea, Japan, and China, as well as Chinese, in ventures to develop both software and hardware, including:

• The Morning-Panda Joint Venture Company in Pyongyang, a partnership between North Korea’s Electronic Products Development Company and China’s Panda Electronic Group, which began making computers in late 2002.
• The Pyongyang Informatics Center (PIC) and South Korea’s Pohang University of Science and Technology (PUST), which are cooperating to develop virtual reality technology. In addition:
• The ROK’s Hanabiz.com and PIC launched the Hana Program Center in Dandong, China, in August 2001 (http://hanabiz.com/history.html) for joint software development and training of DPRK programmers.
•  IMRI—ROK manufacturer of computer peripherals—and CGS—a Tokyo-based software company affiliated with the pro-Pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (GAKRJ, a.k.a. Chosen Soren)—joined hands in July 2000 to form UNIKOTECH (Unification of Korea Technologies) to develop and market software. Both partners maintain links to North Korean IT enterprises.
• The ROK’s Samsung Electronics and the DPRK’s Korea Computer Center (KCC) have been developing software together at a Samsung research center in Beijing since March 2000 (Chonja Sinmun, 15 October).

Venturing Overseas To acquire information on foreign IT trends and to promote their domestic industry, North Koreans have begun venturing overseas in recent years.

• State Software Industry General Bureau Director Han U-ch’ol led a DPRK delegation in late September 2003 to the China International Software and Information Service Fair in Dalian. The North Koreans joined specialists from China and South Korea in describing conditions in their respective IT industries and calling for mutual cooperation. Participants from China and the two Koreas expanded on the theme of cooperation at the IT Exchange Symposium, sponsored by the Dalian Information Industry Association, Pyongyang’s State Software Industry General Bureau, and Seoul’s Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST). Dalian Alios Technical Consulting, a company run by Chinese Korean Yi Sung-nam, hosted the exchange (www.kotra.or.kr, 15 October, http://hanabiz.com, 9 October).
• Pyongyang opened, in April 2002 in Beijing, its first foreign exhibition of DPRK software products developed by Kim Il-song University, Korea Computer Center (KCC), PIC, and other centers of software development (DPRK Korea Infobank, 16 May 2002).
• KCC Deputy Chief Technician Kim Ki-ch’ol led a delegation of DPRK computer technicians to the World PC Expo 2001, held in September 2001 outside Tokyo. KCC has worked with Digiko Soft—a company run by a Korean resident of Japan—to develop commercial software. Through Digiko Soft, the expo was the first show in Japan “of computer software developed in [North] Korea” (Choson Sinbo, 22 October, 1 October 2001).
• KCC computer programmers Chong Song-hwa and Sim Song-ho won first place in August 2003 in a world championship software competition of go—an Asian game of strategy—held in Japan. KCC teams have visited Japan and China on at least eight occasions since 1997 to compete in program contests for go, taking first prize three times.

Gaining Access to Foreign Data North Korea has been acquiring foreign technical information from a variety of sources in recent years, benefiting from developments in technology, warming ties between the Koreas, and longstanding sympathies of many Korean residents in Japan.

• Authorities have held the annual Pyongyang International Scientific and Technological Book Exhibition since 2001, bringing foreign vendors and organizations related to S&T publications to North Korea (KCNA, 18 August).
• The Trade and Economy Institute, advertised as North Korea’s “sole consulting service provider” on international trade, has been exchanging information with “many countries via Internet” since September 2002 (Foreign Trade of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 1 April).
• According to PUST President Pak Ch’an-mo, who has extensive DPRK contacts in academic and scientific circles, North Korea has been purchasing technical books from amazon.com and from South Korea (Kwahak-kwa Kisul, 1 April).
• Pro-Pyongyang Korean residents of Japan have long sent technical literature to North Korea.
• ROK organizations, including PUST and IT publisher youngjin.com, have been donating technical publications on IT in recent years to DPRK counterparts as a means of earning good will and contributing to the eventual unification of Korea (Chonja Sinmun, 11 August).

Cell Phones, Web Pages, and NHK
Within North Korea, the advance of IT technology has been suggested by a number of recent developments:

• Approximately 3,000 residents of Pyongyang and Nason have reportedly purchased cell phone service since November 2002 (The People’s Korea, 1 March).
• Installation of a nationwide optical-fiber cable network in 2000, launch of the Kwangmyong 2000 Intranet the same year, and establishment of computer networks have made available domestic access to extensive technical databases maintained by the Central Scientific and Technological Information Agency, the Grand People’s Study House, and other repositories of technical information.
• Via North Korea’s Silibank Web site (www.silibank.com), established in Shenyang, China, in September 2001, registered foreign users can exchange e-mails with DPRK members.
• In August 2002, Kim Pom-hun, CEO of the ROK IT company Hoonnet.com, opened an Internet café in Pyongyang, the only place in North Korea for the public to access the Internet. Most customers of the service, which uses an optical cable linking Pyongyang and Shanghai via Sinuiju, are foreign diplomatic officials or international agency staffers; steep fees reportedly keep most Koreans from going on line (Wolgan Choson, 1 January).
• Foreign guests in Pyongyang hotels have had access to foreign news broadcasts of Britain’s BBC and Japan’s NHK since May 2003, according to a Japanese television report (TBS Television, 2 September).

Limiting Information to Technical Areas, Harnessing IT for Domestic Indoctrination and Foreign Propaganda Development of the nation, rather than empowerment of the individual, appears to be driving DPRK efforts to develop domestic IT infrastructure and industry. Officials, scientists, and traders can now access and exchange information pertinent to their duties within the domestic Kwangmyong Intranet. Those with a “need to know” can even surf the worldwide Web for the latest foreign data. While Kim Chong-il reportedly watches CNN and NHK satellite broadcasts (Kin Seinichi no Ryorinin, 30 June) and supposedly surfs the Internet, the public has no such freedom to learn of the outside world without the filter of official propaganda.

Indeed, Pyongyang is using IT to indoctrinate the public and put its propaganda before foreign audiences. In addition to studying the party line through regular group reading of Nodong Sinmun in hard copy, a practice for indoctrinating members of work units throughout North Korea, the installation of computer networks now brings the newspaper to some workplaces on line, as the photograph below shows:

Moreover, Pyongyang has put its propaganda on the Internet.

• KCNA offers Pyongyang’s line in English, Korean, and Spanish at a Web site in Japan at www.kcna.co.jp.
• News and views of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan and its affiliated organizations appear on the group’s site at www.chongryon.com.
• DPRK media, including newspapers Minju Choson and Nodong Sinmun, have appeared on sites originating in China, such as www.dprkorea.com and www.uriminzokkiri.com.

According to the Financial Times:

John Chambers, managing director for sovereign ratings at S&P, told reporters in Seoul that state collapse in North Korea was just a matter of time and could cause a bigger shock to the South’s economy than the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  He urged South Korea to build financial reserves to cope with the cost of reunification.

North Korea has started to reform its rigid command economy in recent months by liberalizing prices and wages but S&P said the regime was too rigid to emulate the market openings adopted by communist governments in China and Vietnam.

“Although some other Asian nations that used to have centrally planned economies have successfully moved to a market-based system, the North Korean leadership probably lacks the flexibility and the vision to undertake such a change,” said S&P in a statement. “Unless South Korea has substantially built up fiscal reserves in the meantime, its [credit] ratings would fall from their current level upon sudden reunification of the peninsula.”

Analysts have been predicting collapse of the North Korean regime since 1989, when communist states started to fail in eastern Europe. The state has proved more resilient than many expected, surviving a famine in the mid-1990s that killed at least 1 million people and recording modest economic growth over the past three years. However, dwindling international food aid to the country and U.S. attempts to block some of the regime’s most important sources of cash, such as exports of arms and drugs, has prompted fresh doubts about the durability of the world’s last Stalinist state.

Mr. Chambers said reunification with the North could cost South Korea up to 300 percent of its annual gross domestic product, considering the reconstruction and welfare provisions that would be necessary.

South Korea’s policy of engagement with its neighbor – including humanitarian aid and economic co-operation – is designed to prevent economic failure in the North and encourage gradual reform of its economy and political system.

In a recent report, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, economist at Barclays Capital, said state failure in North Korea need not lead to credit rating downgrades in the South. She said the cost of reconstruction would be spread over many years and would be offset by the economic benefits of reunification.

“The Korean peninsula could become a new Asian economic powerhouse if it could associate Chinese-level labor costs in the North with OECD-level financial and legal systems and R&D in the South,” she said.

from a great story in the Economist:

benefits of reform:

• The electricity supply has slightly improved in Pyongyang, as well as on the east coast in Hamhung and Chongjin. Apartment-block lights are now on for much longer.
• Second-hand bicycles, from Japan and China, are numerous, particularly in cities on the poor, industrial east coast.
• Farmers are allowed their own small gardens, and farmers’ markets are now referred to simply as “markets”, because, as well as food, they sell consumer goods. Significantly, these markets have been given official approval. In June, the government appealed for help from other countries in running them. As Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, explains, one immediate effect of the reforms is that there are now products available for hard currency, such as video players and movies like “The Lion King” dubbed in Korean, which were previously unobtainable. The government is also encouraging foreign investment in industries such as mining, energy, agriculture and information technology
• The leadership recently gave its approval for a South Korean company that assembles cars in North Korea to launch a marketing campaign.
• Mobile-phone services have been started in the country’s main cities and along its motorways.
• North Korea’s tourism authority claims that 2,000 Motorola and Nokia mobile handphones were sold in Pyongyang between November 2002 and August 2003. This in a country where barely a million land lines exist, out of a total population of 23m.
• The Hermit Kingdom recently announced plans to develop broadband internet capabilities to improve the business environment. The plan is to link the domestic intranet, called Kwangmyong, to the internet. The North’s national domain designation, “.kp”, is still not in use, but the government has reportedly been testing e-mail addresses incorporating it. There is even an internet café in Pyongyang, though at $10 per hour it is affordable only to the few tourists, diplomats and journalists who visit the city. Currently, only Mr Kim and a few privileged others can use the optical communications lines supplied to North Korea by China’s China Telecom. Contrast this to the state of affairs in the south, which has the world’s greatest penetration of high-speed broadband connections and where more than 65% of households now have internet access.

These observations say little about how the economy as a whole is doing. The sad truth seems to be that the leadership in the North undertook its partial reforms out of necessity, not because it had understood or embraced the market. Rather, for the past 15 months, according to a Korea expert, Kongdan Oh, at the Institute for Defence Analyses in Virginia, the country has been “creatively muddling through”. While the average North Korean has more economic freedom, the economy is near collapse.

Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, in Washington, DC, estimates that, if anything, economic decline has accelerated, not reversed. Last year’s price and wage increases saw prices rise 10 to 20-fold and wages rise by 20 times or more, the idea being to bring them more into line with market rates. But the increases have not been matched by measures to boost output, so inflation has spiralled out of control. The price of staple foods, for instance, has risen by as much as 400%, and the country continues to rely on foreign handouts to feed its people.

In a recent paper, Mr Noland argues that those with access to foreign exchange, such as senior party officials, do not feel the effects of inflation as severely as salaried workers who have no access to foreign exchange. So for urban residents with access to hard currency, in some respects things are much better. But for the bulk of the population, things are quite grim. As much as 80% of an average family’s income now goes towards food.

Just how committed is the regime of Kim Jong Il to its programme of market reform? Probably not very. It shows no sign of embracing reforms that could potentially undermine the state’s control. It continues to emphasise “military-first” policies, reserving the best of everything for the army it depends on. And even if greater economic reform were undertaken, it is far from certain that it would be successful any time soon.

The economy continues to suffer from a lack of energy, transport infrastructure and basic foodstuffs. Many factories—all of which under the reforms now have to pay their own way—have been shut down, leaving people without jobs and therefore no money to buy food. And since the North admitted last year to its illicit nuclear programme, aid flows have diminished and oil deliveries by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation have been suspended.

Foreign investors still stay away and the few companies that have been bold enough to invest in the North, such as Hyundai Asan, have lost millions of dollars. So, though much has changed in North Korea over the past 15 months, the probability is that more will stay the same

From the BBC:

North Korea has unveiled the terms under which foreign investors will be lured to a ground-breaking industrial zone near the tense border with South Korea.

Two South Korean companies – Korean Land and an arm of the Hyundai conglomerate – are developing an international business park in Kaesong, part of a package of cautious economic reforms in the Stalinist country.

So far, more than 1,000 South Korean firms have enquired about setting up shop in Kaesong, where labour costs will be a tiny fraction of those south of the border.

The North Korean Government now promises investors favourable tax rates, but there are still considerable concerns over whether it will allow businesses much economic freedom.

Most of the companies so far interested in Kaesong are in light manufacturing, particularly textiles.

Depending on their line of business, these firms will be taxed at up to 14%, less than half the rate levied in the South.

Pyongyang is, however, especially keen to lure hi-tech firms, which will be subject to a tax rate of just 10%.

Investors will have to pay a number of other smaller levies, and must adhere to a minimum monthly wage of $50.

Such incentives have sparked a flurry of interest in the South, but many companies remain wary.

They will be forced to hire workers through a North Korean state agency whose powers and attitude remain unclear.

And there is still little confidence in the fundamental stability of North Korea, which has turned to economic reform in recent years, but which remains virulently opposed to most forms of foreign influence.

The Kaesong development does, however, seem to be a relatively permanent arrangement.

It forms part of a large-scale construction project in the region, which is just 50 kilometres northwest of Seoul.

Elsewhere the focus is on tourism, especially scenic Mount Kumgang on the country’s east coast, which Hyundai has been trying to develop for five years, with mixed success.

There is also a Unification Park, which will be the venue for reunions of families split by the country’s division.

Most significant are major road and rail developments which mark the first time the two rival countries have re-established transport links since the end of the Korean war in 1953.

Washington Post Foreign Service
Anthony Faiola
September 14, 2003

Notes on the DPRK’s new Fiat:

The first commercial billboards (ever) are going up in Pyongyang.  Fiat is in the Hermit Kingdom.  The billboards are part of what is dubbed the first corporate media blitz to hit North Korea.

Pyeonghwa Motor Corps., a South Korean firm with ties to the Unification Church, coaxed the DPRK government into allowing the campaign.  Pyeonghwa began assembling cars in North Korea 18 months ago using imported Fiat parts.

Creating the ad campaign was not easy, said John Kim.  The government rejected many billboard proposals.

The company began publishing asd in government sponsored trade magazines showcasing the “Whistle” (The name of the car in the DPRK.  Named after a famous song).  Also a SUV model was launched.  Commercials have also appeared on TV.

Cars cost $14,000 and it would take a north Korean 15 years of labor to save up enough money.

When Pyeonghwa opened its $20m factory about 40 miles west of Pyongyang last year, the company hoped to sell 1000 cars in 12 months, but it has unloaded only half that number in 18 months.  Most have gone to government officials and diplomats.

There are only two gas stations in Pyongyang, and the company does not offer financing 

Notes on Politics:

Pyongyang’s news agency recently described new markets as desigend to “dramatically improve the country’s standard of living.”

This month, the North Korean’s announced a cabinet reshuffle that raised Pak Pong Ju, a former chemical industries manager, to the loftier position of Premier.  He is seen as being interested in reforms.

Kim Jong Il has been working to give the authority to fire a worker to factory managers, as opposed to Party officials.

UPDATE 2 (2003-9-7): The BBC reports that Mr. Yang has lost his appeal:

A business tycoon once listed as China’s second richest man has lost an appeal against his 18-year sentence for fraud.

Yang Bin, known as China’s flower king, was found guilty in July of a string of economic crimes including bribery and illegal land use.

The High People’s Court of Liaoning province on Sunday also upheld fines against him and his companies totalling 8.3m yuan ($1m), said the official Xinhua news agency.

Yang is one of a number of high-profile businessmen to have fallen foul of the law in China over the last year.

Before his fall from grace, he was one of China’s most flamboyant businessmen, and was named by North Korea to head a free-market experimental zone across from the Chinese border.

Border arrest

A Dutch citizen, he built a business empire growing tulips amid the industrial decay of north-east China and by 2001 had a fortune close to $1bn.

However, much of Yang’s wealth had, it turned out, been based not on flowers but on illegal property development.

In what may have been a last bid to avoid prosecution, he accepted an offer from the North Korean government to run a new free trade zone inside the Stalinist state.

But last October, as he prepared to cross the border, Chinese police moved in and took him away.

UPDATE 1 (2003-7-14): Mr. Yang has been sentenced to 18 years by a Chinese court. According to the BBC:

A business tycoon once listed as the second richest man in China has been sentenced to 18 years in prison for fraud.
Yang Bin, known as China’s flower king, was found guilty of a string of economic crimes including bribery and illegal land use.

He is one of a number of high-profile businessmen to have fallen foul of the law in China in recent months.

Before his fall from grace, Yang Bin was one of China’s most flamboyant businessmen, and was named by North Korea to head a free-market experimental zone across from the Chinese border.

A Dutch citizen, he built a business empire growing tulips amid the industrial decay of north-east China.

By 2001 he was listed as China’s second richest man, with a fortune close to $1bn.

But with fame came suspicion and soon a government investigation.

Much of Yang’s wealth had, it turned out, been based not on flowers but on illegal property development.

False receipts were used to get his company listed on the stock market. As his empire began to crumble around him, Yang made what may have been a last bid to avoid prosecution.

He accepted an offer from the North Korean government to run a new free trade zone inside the Stalinist state.

But last October, as he prepared to cross the border, Chinese police moved in and took him away.

A spokesman for Yang, chairman of Hong Kong-listed Euro-Asia Agricultural (Holdings), said he planned to appeal.

Read the full story here:
China’s ‘orchid king’ gets 18 years
BBC
2003-7-14

ORIGINAL POST (2002-10-4): According to the Washington Post, Mr. Yang has been arrested.

Chinese sources, including journalists, said police detained Yang Bin, a 39 year old multimillionaire and flower mogul, on suspicion of tax evasion in the northern Chinese city of Shenyang.

A Chinese source said that the move did not mean China opposed North Korea’s fledgling efforts to reform its economy.  China, he said, was simply against the choice of Yang Bin to head the effort.

Nonetheless, Chinese economists said Yang’s detention constitutes an embarrassment for Kim Jong Il and could threaten reform efforts.

Within the last few days, Chinese journalists say, China’s Ministry of Propaganda has issued three circulars banning China’s press from in depth coverage of Yang.  Analysts in China say they believe this means Beijing is uncomfortable with his new status in North Korea.

The Sinuiju region draws its inspiration from the special economic zones that china established in the 1980s .

Yang said any foreigner could travel to Sinuiju without a visa as long as they had a a visa to return to China (as of Sept 30).  But those plans hit a roadblock on Thursday when North Korean authorities declined to allow foreign correspondents travel with Yang to the Zone.  Yang’s problems then started snowballing when an impromptu news conference he called to explain the visa restrictions was declared “illegal” by Chinese police.

Yang’s shares have been suspended from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange because the company has not made sufficient disclosures.

Yang has been reticent about how he got the North Korean appointment–one of the stranger events in Pyongyang’s checkered attempts to open to the outside world.  In an interview with a Chinese magazine, he said that he had been “Sharing my agricultural technology with the people of North Korea “for more than a year” and that “my selfless help won the trust of the Korean people.”

Yang struck up a friendship with Kim Jong-il several years ago.  Yang took his corporate jet to Pyongyang and worked hard to cultivate Kim.  Kim traveled to Shenyang to meet Yang.  Yang offered to donate greenhouses to North Korea which is desperate for ways to grow food, and Kim accepted.

Some Chinese economists and officials have privately criticized North Korea’s choice of Yang, saying he is emblematic of a type of Chinese businessman who amasses fortunes making use of connections and legal loopholes.

Yang has said he hoped to turn Sinuiju into a trading and manufacturing and trading hub.  Chinese cources, however, said that so far Yang has been approached only by developers looking to turn the area into a gambling and entertainment enclave for Chinese tourists.  Gambling is illegal in China.

Source:
The Fall of Mr. Yang
Washington Post
2002-10-4
Page A25

BBC
8/28/2003

North and South Korea have signed a landmark agreement to increase direct trade, the latest step in the slow economic thaw between the two enemies.

According to the agreement, made at bilateral talks unrelated to the simultaneous discussions over nuclear capability, South Korean firms will be encouraged to set up in the North.

The town of Kaesong, just north of the border, has been selected as the site of an industrial park, currently being built by South Korea’s Hyundai.

The two governments will open a corporate liason office in Kaesong, which will deal with the many southern companies keen to exploit cheap northern labour.

Slowly opening

Cross-border economic contacts have become frequent in recent years.

But almost all the $270m (£172m) in north-south trade so far this year has been conducted through intermediary countries, a formality the new agreement aims to dispose of.

The deal represents another step in the extremely slow economic opening of the stalinist North, which long operated in complete isolation from the world economy.

Over the past three years, Pyongyang has reformed its currency, invited visits from foreign investors, cautiously liberalised some prices and planned various – mainly abortive – schemes along the lines of the Kaesong industrial zone.

Reliance on aid

The motivation in much of this, analysts say, is the desperate economic situation in the north.

A series of natural disasters in the 1990s crippled northern agriculture, and the government has done little to put the sector back on its feet.

North Korea – which long rejected outside help – has become increasingly dependent on aid.

This latest agreement concedes to the South the right to oversee the distribution of food aid in the North.