North Korean Economy Watch

From the Korea Herald:

South and North Korea resume talks today to discuss the opening of an inter-Korean railway link ahead of former President Kim Dae-jung’s visit to the North in June, an official at the Unification Ministry said yesterday.

In the two-day talks, the schedule for train test-operations and the inauguration ceremony of the cross-border railroad will top the agenda, an official said.

Last month the two Koreas failed to reach an agreement on the issue as the North demanded South Korea provide additional material and equipment to complete the construction of the foundation for its rail station.

Earlier this year, the ministry notified Pyongyang of Kim’s wish to revisit the communist state to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in June. The former president wishes to travel via the reconnected inter-Korean rail link, making the inaugural train journey from Seoul to Pyongyang.

The two Koreas will hold further inter-Korean working-level talks next week from May 16 to work out the details of Kim’s second visit to the North. South Korea hopes a test-run of cross-border trains can be conducted before Kim’s visit to the reclusive country next month.

The two Koreas have almost completed construction work on reconnecting the link that has been closed for half a century. The reconnection of two railway lines that cross the 248-kilometer-long Demilitarized Zone is one of the achievements of the landmark summit in 2000 between then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

The 27.3-kilometer Gyeongui railway connects the two border cities of Munsan in the South and Gaeseong in the North, while the 25.5-kilometer Donghae railway crosses the border at the peninsula’s eastern coast.

From the Korea Herald:

The ROK government is considering selling off the remaining blocks at the kaesong industrial complex in North Korea in three steps to maximize their value, sources said yesterday.

A 1-million-pyeong compound was built as the first phase of the Gaeseong project and is currently occupied by 15 businesses.

An additional 24 businesses are set to operate since last August and there is currently 580,000 pyeong of land left up for grabs.

The Unification Ministry, Hyundai Asan and Korea Land Corporation – the three organizers of the project – have recently completed its sale plan which will begin next month.

Of the 580,000 pyeong, the government will first offer 220,000 pyeong for sale in June.

Based on the outcome, the government will release the remaining lots in two steps, in September and December.

Sources said by dividing the land lots in the sale, the government is hoping to minimize the risk and maximize their value.

The government is also planning to differentiate the types of businesses entering kaesong in order to increase the level of cooperation within the companies.

Such business fields will include electronics, electricity, machineries, metal and chemicals.

The complex will also be open wide enough for three to four foreign businesses to invest, following a show of interest from business owners from Germany and China.

At Gaeseong there are currently 500 South Korean employees working with about 6,800 North Korean workers.

From Hankyoreh:
Why Is Danchon in North Korea Important?
South Korea Proposes Joint Developments with North Korea

South Korea suggested to the North a plan to designate Dancheon, South Hamgyeong Province, as a “special joint resource development district” in the 18th South-North ministerial talks held at Pyeongyang at the end of April. According to a statement, the South and North agreed to “consider a program to jointly develop resources,” but it is obvious that Dancheon is a candidate to become the third joint special economic zone, after the tourist district of Mt. Kumgang and the Kaesong Industrial zone.

In the early stages of the 1994 Agreed Framework regarding the curtailing North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for investment, North Korea proposed to the U.S. that it invest in two mines and a port in the Dancheon area. Peter Hayes, executive director of the U.S.-based public policy think tank Nautilus Institute, expressed regret that the U.S. missed an opportunity to make the North dismantle its nuclear weapons program, in an article published May 2 on the institute’s web site. Is it possible for Dancheon to become another symbol of South-North cooperation? Since the North has suggested the development of the zone to the U.S. in the past, the North will surely accept the South’s interest in the project.

Why Dancheon?

If the two Koreas designate a special district for joint resource development, government officials and experts agree that Dancheon is an ideal place. In short, the area has infinite potential. Dancheon has deposits of 25 kinds of minerals, including zinc, magnesite, lead, gold, silver and asbestos.

There also are mining industry-related factories. The Dancheon refinery, which came into operation in 1985, produces 100,000 tons of zinc in a year, and the Ryongryang plant processes the raw slag that can be supplied to brick factories.

Many experts say that Dancheon has a better distribution infrastructure than other mining areas. Dancheon has its own port, and Cheongjin and Sinpo ports are just 40km and 80km away from Dancheon, respectively.

Benefits for both Koreas

The South imports all of the zinc and magnesite it uses. If the special economic zone program succeeds, the Dancheon area will provide the South with a steady flow of needed minerals.

Politically, the success of the project could bring about a certain degree of ‘restraint effect’ against foreign capital in the North, including putting a check on China, which has been of late coveting the mineral resource potential of the North.

If the North increases the operating status of its mines, currently between 20 and 30 percent of total employment capacity, with the help of capital and technology from the South, the project will both generate more jobs and help the North earn foreign currency. With this kind of success, a “special district” would mean a win-win economic cooperation.

Obstacles remain

The largest problem is whether the North Korea will accept the program. Fortunately, Dancheon is known to have no military facilities. But it is not clear if the military will agree to the terms of a special economic district, which means a near-complete opening of the area to the South. Due to this, the statement issued in the recent ministerial meeting regarding further development did not specify the Dancheon area, analysts point out.

Experts forecast that even if the two Koreas agree to develop another special district, it will take a long time before goods can be produced. In addition, the North will have to settle a few problems before the project can get underway, such as legislation concerning foreign investments and ownership.

A cost problem exists, as well. In light of the previous cases of Kaesong and Mt. Kumgang, the South will have to provide almost all the infrastructure necessary to develop the special district. An industry official has estimated the cost at more than one trillion won (about one billion US dollars), due to the condition of the North’s transportation routes and electricity grid.

From the Korea Herald:

the ROKs Ex-Im Bank has focused on bolstering economic cooperation with developing countries and promoting reconciliation and cooperation with North Korea. Ex-Im Bank is the official inter-Korean settlement bank for South Korea with Foreign Trade Bank of North Korea as its counterpart.

A number of initiatives were carried out to promote better operation of the state-run lender’s Economic Development Cooperation Fund and the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund.

Active policy dialogues with partner countries, for example, has significantly increased effectiveness through simplified procedures and co-financing approaches with multilateral development institutions. The Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund supported infrastructure projects such as the construction of roads and railways connecting the two Koreas, while providing humanitarian aid to North Korea. The fund also provided loans to South Korean firms involved in trade with North Korea.

From the Korea Herald:

The 39th annual meeting of the board of governors of the Asian Development Bank will be held at Hyderabad International Convention Center in Hyderabad, India’s fastest growing high-tech corridor, for four days ending on Saturday.

The meeting this week will bring together more than 2,500 delegates from around the world to discuss issues including governance, poverty reduction, development finance, international finance architecture as well as economic and social development.

The ADB, which is dedicated to fighting Asian poverty, does not make any investments in North Korea, which could benefit from various education and training projects.  The prospect of membership would also encourage the nation prepare for it by reforming their economy.

Strong U.S. and Japan led-opposition has kept North Korea from becoming an ADB member nation so far, the insiders said.

From the Korea Times:

Rising dramatically from the East Sea, Mt. Kumgang _ about 20 miles (32 km) north of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in North Korea _ is considered by most to be the most scenic area on the Korean Peninsula. The Japanese colonists even built a direct railway line to the area for sightseeing.

I didn’t comprehend the gravity of my excursion to Mt. Kumgang with my colleagues until the South Korean military escort pulled off the side of the road for our caravan of buses at the south end of the DMZ. We crossed the four-kilometer desolate and barbed-wire covered expanse, and picked up the North Korean military escort on the other side. As we approached North Korean immigration, a soldier goose-stepped into the road in front of the bus and held out a red flag to signal the buses to stop.

Upon entering North Korea the stark change in landscape was surprising. Unique clusters of rock formations rose up from flat, treeless, sandy plains. Looming dramatically and endlessly in the distance was the epitome of all Asian mountain images _ Mt. Kumgang.

But other changes were evident, too. The area was quite rural, with small, weathered clusters of traditional Korean homes that may in fact have been quite old. Instead of cars, there were pedestrians on dusty trails, bicycles instead of motorbikes and horse-pulled carts instead of trucks.

Citizens worked the fields with their bare hands and oxen pulled plows. My immigration stamp said “Choson,’’ the name by which North Korea refers to itself and the name of the Korean Kingdom that ruled the peninsula from 1392 until 1910. I had in fact stepped back to that time.

More striking still was the abundance of North Korean soldiers _ along the road, in the farm fields and on the sides of hills. They were stationed at every road and dirt path intersecting the tourist road, which was entirely separated from the rest of the world by continuous fences. Checkpoints were everywhere, both along our road and the ordinary North Korean roads.

The North Korean hotel and park workers were shy, modest, and polite with noticeably different accents and intonation. They often gazed at me innocently, with curiosity about the presence of a Caucasian American. In one conversation a woman who knew surprisingly little about other places in North Korea mentioned that it was her dream to go to Pyongyang.

“Why haven’t you been there?” my colleague asked.

She responded with three reasons: not enough money to travel; poor conditions of transportation making it a difficult journey; and difficulty in acquiring permission to travel.

Despite her having one of the more coveted jobs in North Korea, the 200-kilometer journey from Mt. Kumgang to Pyongyang was fundamentally impossible.

From the Daily NK:

The chief researcher of the SeoJong Institute, Yang Un Chul, presented his report entitled ‘The Political Economic Implications of Chinese Economic Cooperation with North Korea, ‘ and revealed that, “Recently North Korea has been isolated from the international community because of its nuclear weapons development program. This isolation has led to North Korea’s economic dependence on China. It has also caused some people to worry about the possible economic subornation of North Korea to China. However, this is just an unlikely scenario.”

Yang explained, “Recently the trade between North Korea and China has sharply increased. In 2004, its trade with China amounted to 40% of its total trade. As for Dandong, an advance trading partner with North Korea, in 2005 frontier trade grew dramatically enough to record a 26.5% growth rate.” Yang explained the concern over this this growth rate: “Due to such increasing support and investment, some people fervently insist that China is trying to economically transform and colonize North Korea into a fourth Northeast Chinese province (Jilin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and North Korea).”

In his research, Yang points out, “The exceptional incidence that one country is in subordination to another country can only occur in a situation of very limited market availability.” He went on to explain that, “The fact that North Korea is dependent on China for food, energy and other necessities, is a result of North Korea’s choice to source only from China, despite the availability of resources from other markets.”

It is Yang’s assertion as well that, “The excessive precaution against China or even the exaggeration of China’s influence over North Korea, actually works against North Korea’s economic recovery.” Likewise, he states, “Since China currently has relatively more influence over North Korea than we do, its penetration of the North Korean economy – promoting liberalization and true economic reform – could be an effective way to promote North Korean economic development.”

Yang emphasized that, “Unlike in the past, the Chinese government is no longer able to control North Korea’s economic activity to serve Chinese interests. Instead, the Chinese government now faces the responsibility of trying to help North Korea develop a certain level of economic independence.”

“China knows that if North Korean economic cooperation could be established with the U.S. and South Korea, China’s burden would be more manageable and North Korea could reform more quickly,” Yang explained. However, he also noted that the reality of this level of international cooperation is highly unlikely, stating, “The problem is that since North Korea does not trust the intentions of the U.S. and South Korea, China cannot help but face the difficulty of taking on North Korea alone.”

Yang’s research contends that Chinese-style economic reforms are not the most efficient way to develop North Korea’s economy, however, they may be the only effective option at this time. He stated, “China’s main goal for assisting Norh Korea is simply to maintain the stability of the Northeast region. At the same time, China acknowledges the fact that it is unlikely North Korea will normalize relations with the U.S., and therefore North Korea, by default, will turn to China for economic guidance. The price of implementing the same style of reforms that has shaped 3 of China’s most backward provinces will be high, but the market growth and gradually increasing international influence over the North Korean economy that Chinese-style reforms can offer, are still the second best option for North Korea.”

On the other hand, Yang insisted that “It is not necessary to worry about Chinese companies occupying North Korea, as some South Koreans have raised concerns over.” Instead, he explained that companies are bound to carve out lucrative markets through investment and marketing, and that “Currently, due to the unique North-South relations, and the difficulty of investing in North Korea, Chinese companies should actually be encouraged to enter, invest in and sell commodities to North Korea; activity that will benefit both countries’ economies.”

Subsequently, Yang explained, “China’s influence over North Korea can be effective in teaching North Korea about international labor divisions and the principles of market economies. If China can bring about the concepts of reasonable pricing, and market and income redistribution, China’s intervention could be instrumental in discarding North Korea’s planned economy, and finally allowing a market economy to emerge.”

According to the Daily NK (2006-5-3):

Lee Jeong Gil (44), a Chinese-North Korean trader who recently returned from Shinuiju in late April, said that, “It would be hard for Shinuiju to be a special region. However, it is likely that an international market would be formed in the outskirts of Shinuiju.”

Mr. Lee stated, “As far as I know, besides that of Shinuiju, international market plans would be carried out in the outskirts of Nampo and Wonsan as well.” He went on to explain, “This was already determined at the Central Committee level,” something he noted hearing directly from a high-ranking official living in Shinuiju.

Mr. Lee explained, “Because of the huge removal of residents and the great impact on outside areas caused by the special region plan, the government regards the Shinuiju special region plan as complicated.” He noted as well, that, “It seems that the government pursues this in the same manner as the previously constructed Onsung and Nasun international markets.”

The special region plan is to develop a particular region by dividing it into a concerned area and an outskirt. The goal would then be to introduce into the concerned area such aspects of a market economy as financial industries, manufacturing industries, accommodation industries, and free trade zones. Like special regions, international markets could attract foreign investments. Yet, because special regions are controlled by international markets that are not yet mature – most only at a stage where foreigners rent stores to do business – the effects that international markets can bring are meager.

Mr. Lee said, “It seems reasonable to assume that the government will permit commuting since it has allowed daily visa-free commutes to and from China since July… So, it requires a look into the news that North Korean customs moved from Ryeokjeon-dong, the present area, to Minpo-dong where the second NK-China Yalu River iron bridge plan is being constructed.”

He went on to explain, “I heard that the government will construct new buildings for foreign traders to do business in, in the outskirts of Shinuiju, and that they will give leasing rights to investors who invest more than 100,000 dollars.”

On the other hand, on the 23rd, Mr. Kim (51) noted, “The internal policy direction for Shinuiju and Nampo was already set to make special regions within the year to overcome the economic crisis [North Korea] has faced recently.” It is likely that what the high-ranking official testified about is not about special regions, but about international markets.

Read the full story here:
Shinuiju Development, Not a Special Region But an ‘International Market?’
Daily NK
Kwon Jeong Hyun
2006-5-3

From the Joong Ang Daily:

Jay Lefkowitz, Washington’s special envoy on North Korean human rights, has continued to criticize the working conditions for North Korean laborers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, where South Korean companies have located plants.

On the surface, wages and working conditions are the main issue, but experts say there is a more fundamental difference between Seoul and Washington on economic support for the North and on human rights issues there.

In an essay in the Wall Street Journal’s weekend edition, Mr. Lefkowitz said daily wages for North Koreans at the complex were less than $2. That appears to be correct; the monthly minimum wage at the complex is $57, including a 30 percent commission to the government. But because companies at the site pay those wages to a North Korean labor service provider, it is not known how much, if any, of the wages actually find their way into workers’ pockets.

There are currently, 6,850 North Korean workers at the complex; the number will go up by about a fifth this month.

The Unification Ministry here was outraged by Mr. Lefkowitz’s comments, especially by a reference to “slave labor.” The minister, Lee Jong-seok, said on Sunday that he wasn’t sure whether Mr. Lefkowitz was trying to improve human rights in the North or hamper them.

Seoul has put human rights issues in North Korea on the back burner, angering many conservatives here, arguing that the best way to improve rights was by economic development of the North, assisted by massive amounts of economic assistance from South Korea. 

From Yonhap: 

SEOUL, May 1 (Yonhap) — North and South Korea are to hold working-level talks this week to discuss ways to increase economic cooperation, including Seoul’s proposal to jointly develop the Han River’s sand-rich estuary and mineral mines in the communist North, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said Monday.

The new round of dialogue between officials of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee is to be held in the North’s border town of Kaesong from Wednesday through Thursday, the ministry said in a press release.

The meeting will include talk of ways to jointly develop the western mouth of the Han River, called the Imjin River in the North, which is believed to contain at least 1 billion cubic meters, or about 1.6 billion tons, of sand.

It will also serve as a venue to fix the next meeting of the inter-Korean committee, the highest-profile dialogue between the divided Koreas. Last month the two sides agreed on a deadline of end-May.

The sand project was proposed by Unification Minister Lee Jong-Seok, Seoul’s chief delegate to the inter-Korean Cabinet talks, at a meeting in Pyongyang last month.

The Seoul metropolitan area houses almost half of the country’s 48 million population live and requires some 80 million tons of sand a year for use in construction, according to ministry officials.

The South Korean minister also proposed the two sides work together in developing the North’s zinc and magnesite mines in the country’s northwestern city of Danchon.

In an eight-point agreement adopted at the end of the ministerial talks, the North Korean side welcomed Seoul’s proposal, but left actual projects for joint mining to be discussed at the upcoming inter-Korean economic talks.

The South Korean delegation is to be led by the head of the ministry’s social and cultural exchanges bureau, Kim Chun-sig, while the North Korean side will be led by Cho Hyon-ju, an official from the North’s National Economic Cooperation Committee, the ministry said.