North Korean Economy Watch

From the Joong Ang Daily:
10/19/2006
Seo Ji-eun

Hyundai Asan Corp. is facing another tough challenge to its Mount Kumgang tour operation amid mounting pressure to suspend business due to suspicions that it has inadvertantly helped North Korea develop nuclear weapons.

So far the company is still in business, but it may be forced to withdraw.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said on Tuesday that the Mount Kumgang tour “seems to be designed to give money to the North Korean authorities.”

According to Hyundai Asan, North Korea has received up to $457 million since 1999 in return for allowing Mount Kumgang tours.

Experts point out that the reason the United States opposes the tourism business while not objecting to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, also operated by Hyundai Asan, is because the majority of payments from the tour company go directly to the North Korean government. Kim Sung-han, head researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs & National Security, said, “The United States views the Kaesong Industrial Complex as acceptable in that the major portion of capital injected into that project consists of labor costs of the North Korean workforces in actual operation there. However, Mount Kumgang is understood as being mainly for the sake of the regime.”

Political critics speculate that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a meeting with the President Roh Moo-hyun scheduled for today, may officially request a halt for the program. There is speculation of a second North Korean nuclear test, which would likely increase international sanctions against the North.

Officials at Hyundai Asan are discussing ways to retain the tour business, which accounted for 40 percent of revenue last year. Tourists to the scenic resort in the North have sharply decreased of late, making it hard for Hyundai Asan to achieve its annual goal of 350,000 visitors.

The North Korean business arm of Hyundai Group is mulling the delivery of rice, medicine and fertilizer to sustain cash flow and quell notions that it is aiding North Korea.

An executive from Hyundai Motor Co. said, “We are afraid consumers in the United States might be confused. We have no choice but to explain that Hyundai Motor and Hyundai Asan belong to different groups.”

New York Times:
10/19/2006
Norimitsu Onishi
Su-hyun Lee

Last March, Lee Chun-hak, a 19-year-old North Korean, went to the Chinese border to meet with a North Korean money trafficker. Using the trafficker’s Chinese cellphone, Mr. Lee talked to his mother, who had defected to South Korea in 2003. She told him she was going to get him out.

Mr. Lee missed his mother and his sister and brother, and he had a persistent, if half-formed, desire. “I wanted to go to a country that is more developed,” he said, “even more developed than South Korea.”

In June, a young North Korean man appeared suddenly at his home with a message: “Mother is looking for you.” The man then took him by bicycle and foot to the border and handed him over to a North Korean soldier. At the soldier’s direction, Mr. Lee was ordered to leave his identification card and his Kim Il-sung badge, which is worn by all North Koreans to honor the nation’s founder.

The soldier then escorted Mr. Lee across the Tumen River, where on the other side two Chinese men in plainclothes handed the soldier his bribe. Mr. Lee was free to go.

The increasing ease with which people are able to buy their way out of North Korea suggests that, beneath the images of goose-stepping soldiers in Pyongyang, the capital, the government’s still considerable ability to control its citizens is diminishing, according to North Korean defectors, brokers, South Korean Christian missionaries and other experts on the subject. Defectors with relatives outside the country are tapping into a sophisticated, underground network of human smugglers operating inside North and South Korea, China and Southeast Asia.

Learning anything about such a secretive and unpredictable country as North Korea, which isolated itself further by carrying out a nuclear test on Oct. 9, is difficult. Scraps of information provided by defectors often prove unreliable, influenced as they can be by the organizations that shelter and support them while also championing political or religious causes.

But snapshots of life inside the North, and a picture of this smuggling network, emerged from interviews with 20 North Koreans in Bangkok, as well as with brokers, Christian missionaries, government officials and people working in private organizations, in both Thailand and South Korea. The North Koreans in Bangkok were interviewed independently and had all recently arrived in Thailand.

Pieced together, the accounts provide glimpses of a government that, while still a repressive police state, is progressively losing the paramount role it used to enjoy in society, before it found itself incapable of feeding its own people in the famine of the 1990’s. The power of ideology appears to be waning in this nation of about 22.7 million as people have been left to scrounge for themselves, and as information has begun to seep in from the outside world.

The effects of money and corruption appear to have grown sharply in recent years, as market liberalization has allowed ordinary people to run small businesses and has enabled people with connections to prosper in the booming trade with China.

In a country whose borders were sealed until a decade ago, defectors once risked not only their own lives but those of the family members they left behind, who were often thrown into harsh prison camps as retribution. Today, state security is no longer the main obstacle to fleeing, according to defectors, North Korean brokers, South Korean Christian missionaries and other experts. Now, it is cash.

“Money now trumps ideology for an increasing number of North Koreans, and that has allowed this underground railroad to flourish,” said Peter M. Beck, the Northeast Asia project director in Seoul, South Korea, of the International Crisis Group, which has extensively researched the subject in several Asian countries and is publishing a report. “The biggest barrier to leaving North Korea is just money. If you have enough money, you can get out quite easily. It speaks to the marketization of North Korea, especially since economic reforms were implemented in 2002. Anything can be bought in the North now.”

“The state’s control is weakening at the periphery,” Mr. Beck said, explaining that most refugees came out of the North’s rural areas but few from around Pyongyang, where the state’s grip remained strong.

During the North’s great famine in the mid- to late 1990’s, a tide of 100,000 to 300,000 North Koreans is believed to have simply washed into China, and tens of thousands are still believed to be living there illegally, according to human rights organizations. These days, the number of refugees is believed to be much smaller, though there are few reliable figures.

According to the South Korean government, of the 8,740 North Koreans who are known to have fled to the South since the end of the Korean War in 1953, nearly 7,000 arrived in the last four years alone.

But the cost of getting out is significant, according to experts, defectors, brokers and missionaries. There are bribes for the soldiers stationed at the heavily guarded border, a regular cut to their supervisors, money handed to a chain of officials. And that is just on the North Korean side.

At the high end, $10,400 will buy a package deal to get someone out of North Korea and, armed with a fake South Korean passport, on a plane or boat to South Korea within days, according to brokers and a 40-year-old North Korean woman now in South Korea who recently extracted her 14-year-old son. But most North Koreans in South Korea pay on average about $3,000 to get relatives out through China and then Southeast Asia or Mongolia.

Some exits are short-term. One 37-year-old North Korean in Seoul, an employee at a large auto parts maker, said he went to China in April to meet a friend, a journalist in North Korea whom he had not seen in 10 years. For a few hundred dollars, smugglers took the journalist to Yanji, a bustling Chinese town on the border with North Korea, where the two spent the weekend drinking and catching up, the man said in an interview in Seoul.

Like many interviewed for this article, he asked that his name be withheld, for fear of reprisals against friends and relatives still in North Korea. He carried stacks of a South Korean newspaper, The Chosun Ilbo, for the journalist, who had no interest in reading the political stories. Instead, he devoured the business pages, though he puzzled over words like “online,” and marveled at how far the South had outpaced the North economically.

At the end of the weekend, the defector returned to Seoul and his journalist friend to North Korea.

“Doing this would have been unimaginable a few years ago,” he said. “This kind of corruption didn’t exist back then. Now, everything revolves around money.”

Escaping a Shaky Economy

After the end of the cold war, North Korea’s economy collapsed and its leaders adopted a strategy of trying to secure its energy and other essentials by threatening to become a nuclear power. They have adhered to this strategy even as they put into effect economic reforms in 2002, adopting market prices, allowing citizens to run small businesses and joining with South Korea in economic projects.

Though still shaky, the North’s economy has improved thanks to trade with China and South Korea. It grew by 2.2 percent in 2004, the sixth consecutive year of expansion, according to the Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank. Defectors and brokers said North Koreans were fleeing their country to rejoin relatives in the South or to look for economic opportunities — not because they were starving, as they were in the 1990’s. The threat of political persecution remains, of course.

In Seoul, Do Sung-hak, 39, a North Korean who came to the South in 2002, said his older brother was sent to prison three years ago after someone reported the brother’s private comments that North Korea was not opening its economy fast enough.

A few months after his release early this year, the brother fled the North with Mr. Do’s help. He is now in Thailand.

Mr. Do, who works as a security guard, said he had arranged to get about 20 people out of the North, using ethnic Korean-Chinese contacts he had made while living for six years in northeast China.

After receiving a request, Mr. Do said he would call a Korean-Chinese intermediary, who would then call a North Korean with a Chinese cellphone that works inside North Korea near the border. The North Korean or a partner would then travel to the relative’s hometown — the price of the service varying according to the distance — and take that person back to the border, where he or she would then talk to the relative in South Korea on a cellphone and make arrangements.

“It doesn’t matter if the person lives in the middle of the country — of course, it takes longer, maybe 10 days,” Mr. Do said. “It’s only a question of money.”

North Koreans living in the South also send money to their relatives back home through the same method, with the brokers taking at least a 20 percent fee, brokers and North Korean defectors said.

A 49-year-old broker in Seoul — nine of whose clients have arrived in Thailand recently — said she operated the same way, adding that those involved in the business in North Korea were Communist Party members.

“You can do that kind of work — being able to travel freely inside North Korea — only if you’re a party member,” said the woman, who added that she earned $2,500 to $3,000 a month.

The demand for this smuggling service has risen along with the increasing number of North Koreans living in South Korea. The North Koreans in the South pay to get their relatives out by working to pay for the fees, borrowing money or using resettlement money awarded to them by South Korea.

One River, Many Hardships

The case of Lee Chun-hak, the 19-year-old who fled the North on June 28, is a typical one. For the past two months, he has been in the Immigration Detention Center in Bangkok, where his mother, Kim Myung-shim, 46, visited him from Seoul the other day.

Mrs. Kim fled to South Korea in 2003, remarried and began working to arrange the defection of Mr. Lee and her two other children, who lived with her former husband in a province bordering China.

The three children were set to leave in late 2005. But before crossing the Tumen River into China, Mr. Lee balked — he did not want to leave his father and grandmother. His older sister and younger brother went ahead and, thanks to the $5,200 paid to brokers, were smuggled into Mongolia and arrived in South Korea last February.

Mr. Lee returned to his everyday life, going to school and, like many others, earning a little money by working at a nearby gold mine. People farmed corn and beans in the area where the surrounding mountains have been stripped bare for firewood.

The economy had improved in recent years, as the authorities allowed people to moonlight at places like the gold mine and to start small businesses. Local residents ate regularly, Mr. Lee said, though the portions were small. Still, he saw perhaps only two or three cars a day, and most people walked or rode bicycles.

After a few months, his sister in Seoul persuaded him to leave. Mr. Lee was now an adult and would find it hard to keep living with his father, who had remarried, Mrs. Kim said.

So on June 27, after his sister had made arrangements with a broker, the North Korean man picked Mr. Lee up in his hometown and took him by bicycle to a spot near the border, where he spent the night, he said. The next afternoon, they rode the bicycle and then walked to the Tumen River. Mr. Lee waded across, accompanied by the soldier.

“As long as you pay the soldiers, you can cross,” Mrs. Kim said, adding that she had paid $3,600 to the brokers for her son’s escape — $1,000 for the North Korea leg and $2,600 for China.

He found his way through China and Laos to Thailand where, following the advice of the brokers, he gave himself up to the authorities. Thailand does not repatriate North Korean refugees, incarcerating them instead while their cases are processed through the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Bangkok. The process takes about three to four months, after which the North Koreans are sent to South Korea, though the United States recently accepted nine North Korea refugees.

Having learned that news in Bangkok, Mr. Lee said he no longer wanted to go to South Korea. “I want to go to the United States to study and become a scientist.”

Doubts About an Ideology

Many of the North Koreans interviewed in Thailand said they wanted to go to the United States, even though they were reared in a country that has demonized America for decades. In school in the North, one defector said, she had had been taught that Americans were “inhuman, promiscuous and dictatorial.”

“Even today, I still sometimes refer to the United States as ‘Imperialist America,’ ” she said, laughing.

But as a fourth grader, the woman said, she began to have doubts about that image of America, after she happened upon a photograph in a magazine. As she recalled, it showed a tightrope walker balanced on a wire between high-rise buildings in Washington. The implicit message was that the United States was such an inhumane country that it forced people to perform such jobs, she said.

“But what I remembered about that photo was the tall buildings,” she said. “There was also a beautiful park and clean, wide streets. It was fascinating. There was nothing like that where I grew up.”

North Korea still unleashes daily attacks against the United States through its official media, but the desire of many of the defectors interviewed to go to the United States suggests that the power of ideology is waning.

“After spending a few months in China, they change their minds about the United States,” said a South Korean missionary who regularly visits the North Koreans at the detention center. “In China, they have access to so much information. They look at Web sites and exchange instant messages with people in South Korea.”

Lee Chan, 36, who fled North Korea one year ago and entered Thailand in June, agreed that anti-American ideology was not as strong as it was in the past.

“People’s perceptions of the United States have changed inside North Korea,” he said. “I’ll give you one example. If you’re caught watching an American movie, the authorities will just swear at you — nothing else.”

In Bangkok, where South Korean Christian missionaries care for the defectors while trying to convert them, Lee Chun-hak’s mother, Mrs. Kim, was worried that her son had become too friendly with Mr. Lee, the defector who had emerged as a leader of the detainees. She was angry that her son had started smoking under Mr. Lee’s influence.

“Please look after Chun-hak,” the mother said to Mr. Lee, adding that her son had birthmarks on his head and face that foretold a great future. “That’s why I’m sending him to America.”

“Please guide my son,” she said, “even though he’s doing well alone.”

Mr. Lee, showing her a pack of Marlboros, said, “He’s doing well — he doesn’t smoke expensive cigarettes like I do.”

“Stop smoking!” the mother said.

A missionary began praying for Lee Chun-hak.

“Pray to God to send you to America,” the mother exhorted her son.
 

From the Joong Ang:
Ministry: North got $1 billion since 1998
10/18/2006
Lee Young-jong
Ser Myo-ja

The Unification Ministry yesterday defended itself against accusations that the Roh Moo-hyun administration and its predecessor, that of Kim Dae-jung, were at least partly responsible for giving the North the cash it needed to fund its nuclear weapons programs.

Ministry data released yesterday said that South Korea sent nearly $1 billion in cash to the North from March 1998 until August of this year. The ministry said those payments were in connection with “legitimate economic activities.” Nearly half of that cash flow, it said, was from tourism receipts at North Korea’s Mount Kumgang resort, and almost all the remainder was a $500 million payment by Hyundai Group to North Korea for exclusive rights to run the tours.

When Hyundai Group first began the tour program in 1998, Lim Dong-won, then the Blue House senior secretary for security affairs, ordered the Unification Ministry to devise ways of monitoring the payments to ensure that they were not diverted to military uses. But a Unification Ministry official recently admitted the obvious: “There was and is no way to see how the North spent the money,” he said.

The same is true in the other inter-Korean programs, although the amounts are relatively smaller. Nearly $21 million has been paid to the North in the Kaesong Industrial Complex project, including the wages of 800 North Korean workers there. The few million dollars remaining in the total were payments for South Koreans to attend events such as the annual Arirang Festival.

The ministry’s statement yesterday said the Hyundai payment of $500 million was made in August 2000. In fact, it was made in June, just before the first inter-Korean summit that month, and a special counsel who looked into the then-secret payment described it as an inducement for North Korea to agree to the summit. Seven persons were later convicted of violating Korea’s foreign exchange laws in connection with the matter.

Critics on the right believe the ministry’s estimates are woefully incorrect; the Grand National Party, for example, has put the amount at $8.4 billion over the past eight years.

The ministry also challenged the Grand National Party’s argument that South Korea had spent nearly 2.2 trillion won ($2.3 billion) for a failed light-water reactor project in North Korea.

The ministry said the figure was only about 1.4 trillion won.

It also noted that that project was an international one and had begun under the Kim Young-sam administration in 1994. Only a tiny part of that funding involved cash payments to North Korea, the ministry said.

From the Daily NK:
If a Second Tribulation March Arrives?
10/17/2006
Han Young Jin

On the 14th, the Rodong Shinmun, a N. Korean state newspaper, urged “We must take a strong conviction in regards to socialism and go out to fight with faith and optimism.” On the 13th, the Minju Chosun (Democratic Korea), the government organ, claimed “Even if we have to face the second and third ‘Tribulation March,’ you need not worry. Rather we must fight with overt confidence and audacity.”

Ever since the nuke experiments government channels have been using this propaganda This suggests that North Korean authorities were already prepared for sanctions by the international community.

People’s mentality “If you trust the nation, you will die of starvation”

During the first “Tribulation March” in the mid-90’s, about 300,000 people died over a period of 3 years from starvation. What would happen if the second tribulation march was to occur as a result of the U.N. North Korea resolution? How would it differ from the first?

The reason that 300,000 people died from starvation lies in the fundamental man-made disaster, where Kim Jong Il’s political ideology of “government teachings” and development of reform were abandoned after his death to “revival of one’s own strength.”

Beginning with munitions workers, about 50,000 people who trusted and were loyal to the government, including many intellectuals such as scientists and technicians died of starvation.

When comparing the past to the present, the people of the 90’s trusted only in their government as they did not have any other knowledge. Thus they were hit with a sudden blow, however this time it is different, as the North Korean people are already filled with “immunity.”

Above all, North Korean people are now aware of their own existence and are saying “If you trust the nation, you will die from starvation.” At the time, people tacitly in trade knew that they would not die of hunger. Today, high officials have changed their mentality and have abandoned the ideology of being the “People’s emissary” to ‘I must devise a plan to live, while I have the power.’

Since 2000, irrespective of whether or not the nation distributed rations in the fall, people have begun to devise their own ways to live. While city dwellers are living off their trade, villagers are providing their own rations through cultivation and farming off mountains.

After the 7.1 economic measures, capitalism was steadily introduced and the people’s spontaneity increased. Hence, this time it seems that the mass starvation of the mid-90’s may be escaped.

However, as a result of long term malnutrition, it is possible that many deaths will occur from disease and infectious epidemics.

A complete breakdown in industry and infrastructure

According to data from the World Food Program (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), North Korea’s output of grain in 95~96 was 4,070,000 tons and 2,874,000 tons in 96~97. This is a significantly low figure compared to the necessary amount of 6,400,000 tons.

Even today, little has changed. Last year, the typhoon caused an output of 4,800,000 tons of crop. Hence, the insufficient rations of the 90’s ‘Tribulation March’ period, is similar to this time.

During the first tribulation march, there was no electricity so factories ceased operations and workers began to sell equipment taken from their workplace in trade of rations. What happened was a collapse in the main infrastructure of factories.

The worker’s riot in 1996 that arose from suppression of operations at the Yellow Sea Iron Works, also originated from workers taking factory materials to trade for food. A defector from ‘September Iron Works’ in Pyongan said “During the tribulation march, everyone took materials from work to trade. If it occurs again, people will most probably dig up the main support.”

The infrastructure collapse of the 90’s was near to impossible to rebuild by North Korea alone. Since 1998, the economy has somewhat stabilized, however full reconstruction has never been acheived and rather only parts of the country has recovered.

The key point will be when China participates in the North Korea sanctions

If the second tribulation march was to occur, the main point will be commerce with China. Last March, Professor Xuwenji of Northeast Asia Research and Development Institute, Jilian University visited North Korea. He said “About 70% of North Korean markets are made up of Chinese products, 20% of products are made in North Korea and the remaining 10% is either Japanese or Russian products.”

Currently, daily necessary products such as toothbrushes, toothpaste, and soap, welding rods and even tires at North Korean markets are all made in China. In the case that the trade of daily necessities is disconnected, this will undoubtedly affect North Korea dramatically. In the end, the key point is to what extent China will compliantly follow the North Korea resolution.

The number of Chinese enterprises trying to evade North Korean investments is also variable. After North Korea’s nuclear experiment, rumors spread that Chinese banks beginning from Dandong had ceased remitting funds to North Korea and that many Chinese businesses had begun to suspend or terminate North Korean investments.

If commerce is suspended between North Korea and China, North Korea will not be able to satisfy all of its necessary daily products by relying on illicit trade.

There are also rumors that barbed wire will be placed bordering the region of the Yalu River, which will further affect smuggling of goods. As official trade between the two countries becomes illegal and daily necessities cannot be supplied from China through smuggling, the North Korean people will experience yet another fatal blow to their lives.

Furthermore, if North Korea does proclaim its second tribulation march and returns to the times of the mid-90’s, the Kim Jong Il regime could be greatly affected.

Above all, as the mentality of the people has changed, no longer will they listen submissively to the government. Rather, they will be more inclined to find ways to sustain their own life existence and make all attempts to defect to China. Amongst these circumstances, there may even be bloodshed between soldiers and the people.

Also, if high ranking military officials and soldiers decide that they cannot possibly live amongst these circumstances, it is possible that they will abandon their barracks. One thing is certain they will not simply sit around and wait to die from starvation. If high ranking military officials and soldiers did withdraw from their barracks on the mass, it is possible that the Kim Jong Il regime will face a threat to destruction.

From the Choson Ilbo:
Chinese Banks Restricting Cash Flow to N.Korea
10/17/2006

Major Chinese banks are currently stopping or restricting remittances or payments to North Korea after the North’s announcement of what it claims was a nuclear test, it emerged Monday. Chinese banks in Dandong, where cross-border trade is concentrated, recently started restricting banking transactions with North Korea, an official with the South Korean Embassy in China said. The restrictions, in fact, started in March this year, when the U.S. imposed financial sanctions on Macau’s Banco Delta Asia after designating it Pyongyang’s “primary money laundering concern.”

But not all Chinese banks are doing so, each bank and branch having its own policy. Sources say it does not look as if the Chinese government is ordering them to do so; rather banks have started doing so on their own. Rumor is spreading among traders doing business with North Korea in China that all financial accounts with North Korea including those by North Korean traders in China could be frozen.

North Korean workers in China are leaving the country in droves after North’s claimed nuclear test. A businessman operating a sewing factory in Shenyang, China, said, “Some 100 North Korean workers in my factory returned home three days ago because the Chinese authorities didn’t renew their work permit.” Banks in Dandong and Shenyang, where many businesses trading with North Korea have accounts, are seeing an increasing number of them not receive payments for exports to the North. “Since the U.S. froze North Korea’s accounts in the Macau bank, it takes three or four times longer for us to get paid for imports to the North, and this is hurting us badly,” a businessman trading with the North said. “We can’t do business with the North any longer.”

As official trade between the North and China shrinks, smuggling between the two countries is thriving, local people say. An ethnic Korean in Dandong said if a North Korean vessel ships 1,000 tons of iron ore to a port here, it officially reports only 100 ton of them and smuggles the rest. Smuggling covers almost everything from iron ore to bronze, TVs, computers, petrochemical products, antiques and maritime products. That is why many feel how determined the Chinese authorities are in cracking down on smuggling will determine the success of sanctions against the North. Locals say they have not heard of any Chinese crackdown on smuggling to and from the North, nor do they expect one.

China clearly stated its opposition against military action in the UN resolution against the North over its claimed nuclear test, calling for “an appropriate level” of sanctions. Beijing says the ultimate goal should be getting the North to return to the six-party talks on its nuclear program, not forcing regime collapse. Some expect China to reduce, rather than stop, its supply of oil to the North.

Meanwhile, China is preparing for an emergency in North Korea. It is setting up barbed-wire fences along the border near the Yalu and Tumen rivers where the military units of the provinces there took charge of guarding the area three years ago. The barbed-wire fences are being extended near Changbai County and the Tumen River. A Chinese official said the fences “were put up after consultations with the North because we needed to draw up a clear border between us and North Korea because of the narrowness of the river or newly built roads.” But some say the main goal is to prevent a mass exodus of North Koreans when the regime falls apart. Experts say another reason China is building up its military strength and carrying out more military exercises near the border with the North is to prepare for regime collapse in the north. The new 60-km long road along the Yalu River is also said to serve strategic military purposes.

From NK Zone:
Michael Rank
10/15/2006

The Chinese businessman who is planning to develop the North Korean port of Rajin under a 50-year agreement with the border city of Hunchun says the deal remains on track despite NK’s nuclear test.

Fan Yingsheng, a property developer from Hunan province, said a road between the two cities should be completed within 15 months but gave few other details.

He told the Shanghai Evening Post [in Chinese] that U.N. sanctions “are something that we are expecting, and won’t have much effect on us.”

“After the nuclear test, North Korean colleagues did not tell my company about anything being different, I didn’t even receive any phone calls from them, which shows that it’s business as usual.

”So I am still planning to fly to Pyongyang to sign an agreement as planned, and haven’t thought of changing my schedule.“

Fan was speaking from Hunchun on October 12, shortly after meeting a group of North Korean officials, and was about to head across the border to Raseon where his company apparently has its main North Korean office. He said this visit had been scheduled a month ago.

The ceding of Rajin, an ice-free port with a handling capacity of three million tonnes a year, will give access to the sea to inland areas of northeast China which at present must send freight long distances by rail to the port of Dalian on the Bohai gulf.

The agreement also provides for the construction of a 5-10 square km industrial zone and a 67 km highway, and envisages that the Rajin area will become a processing zone for Chinese goods which will then be re-exported to southern China.

Fan is reported to have put up half the initial capital investment of 60 million euros ($70 million). The sum could not be denominated in dollars for political reasons.

Fan said in July that the Chinese side had approved the leasing of the port as had the city of Raseon, and “all we are waiting for is for the Korean central government to give its approval…”

From Yonhap:
Suspension of inter-Korean business only hurts S. Korea: official
10/13/2006

Suspending South Korea’s joint business projects with North Korea would do more harm to the South than the North while doing little to convince the communist state to halt additional nuclear tests, a ranking South Korean official said Friday.

“Cutting off (inter-Korean economic projects) now would only show our firm will (to retaliate against North Korea for its claimed nuclear test) by inflicting wounds on parts of our own body,” the official told reporters, asking not to be identified.

“The damage North Korea would suffer would be very insignificant compared to the damages we would suffer,” the official added.

The remarks came amid calls from here and abroad for the Seoul government to immediately halt cross-border business projects with the North in retaliation for the North’s claimed nuclear test on Monday.

The main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) claims the country’s economic cooperation for the impoverished North has helped the North’s missile and nuclear weapons program.

“In the current situation, (South Korea) must strengthen its alliance with the United States and actively participate in U.N. Security Council sanctions on the North while cutting off all of its cash assistance to the North,” GNP floor leader Kim Hyong-o said Friday at a party leadership meeting.

An average of 40,000 South Koreans travel to a scenic resort on North Korea’s Mount Geumgang every month, paying about US$1 million in admission fees to the North, according to Hyundai Asan, the South Korean developer of the resort.

Fifteen South Korean companies also pay about $600,000 a month on average to North Korea in wages for the 8,700 North Korean employees at an industrial complex being developed by the two Koreas near the North’s border town of Kaesong, according to the Unification Ministry.

The government official, however, said the government had no immediate plans to scrap the inter-Korean projects, claiming the money paid to the North through the projects is not aimed at assisting the North’s weapons program and that the amount is insignificant.

He said the country would align its North Korea policy and economic cooperation with a U.N. Security Council resolution when one is passed, but claimed a U.S. draft of the resolution, even if approved by the Security Council, would not call for a suspension or reduction of inter-Korean economic cooperation.

“Vice Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said at the National Assembly Thursday that there is nothing in the U.S. draft resolution” that would call for a suspension of the two cross-border projects, the official said.

From the Joong Ang Daily
10/13/2006
Seo Ji-eun

Hyun Jeong-eun, the Hyundai Group chairwoman, may face a serious problem soon: If tourist departures for the North Korean resort area of Mount Kumgang continue in their slump, should she end the operation? And if she does, what happens to the Hyundai Group’s leading role in developing business ties with North Korea, including its exclusive right to conduct tours there for South Koreans?

Hyundai Asan, the group subsidiary that operates the tours, said yesterday that only 549 tourists traveled to the mountain area, now ablaze in fall colors. A day earlier, the number was 788. The company said that 4 percent of its travelers canceled on Monday, when the North announced that it had conducted a nuclear test; yesterday, 65 percent of those who had signed up for the trip cancelled.

Even if the problem continues long enough for an “ordinary” company to think about pulling out of the business, Hyundai’s problem involves other elements of the group and more than just cash flow.

Hyundai Asan won exclusive rights to an inter-Korean tourist business in late 1998, and has set a goal of expanding its corporate sphere across the country. It plans to take tourists to Kaesong and to Mount Paektu and has an ambitious construction program to support. Shutting down the Kumgang tours could endanger that strategy because of North Korea’s long memory and penchant to hold grudges. Once out, Hyundai fears it may never again get in.

North Korea has earned about $500 million so far from the Mount Kumgang tours.

And Hyundai Group’s heritage is bound up in North Korea businesses. Cross-border business dealings were initiated by Chung Ju-yung, the group’s founder, and that business was inherited by his son, Chung Mong-hun, who committed suicide during his trial on charges of helping secretly funnel cash to the North to set up the first inter-Korean summit in 2000. Since Ms. Hyun succeeded her husband three years ago, her husband’s other brothers have been jockeying to seize control of the group from her through stock transactions, in order to reinstate the direct blood line from the group’s founder to its current management.

Ms. Hyun has often stressed that it is she who is the true champion of the founder’s spirit through her persistence in conducting business with North Korea.

In the view of some analysts, that argument could be weakened significantly by shutting down the tours, perhaps inducing group subsidiaries such as the Hyundai Department Store chain, which has remained neutral in the family feud, to turn against Ms. Hyun.

Yonhap:
10/11/2006

South Korean civic groups on Wednesday sent humanitarian aid shipments to North Korea despite the heightened tension over North Korea’s declared nuclear test, officials said.

A 2,864-ton ship plying the Incheon-Nampo route departed for a North Korean port with shipments of 14 containers for humanitarian aid and another 45 containers for construction and raw materials to be used at the Kaesong industrial complex just north of the inter-Korean border.

The aid shipments include 2,000 bicycles, two ambulances, blankets and boilers, they said.

Following North Korea’s announcement of its first-ever nuclear test on Monday, the South Korean government suspended a shipment of 7,500 tons of cement to the communist country.

“We hope that the provision of bicycles on humanitarian grounds will contribute to maintaining civilian inter-Korean exchanges and offering a clue to the resolution of the stained inter-Korean relationship,” a local YMCA official said. 

Paul Tija
GPI Consultancy
October 10, 2006

IN PDF: IT_in_NKorea.pdf

Surprising business opportunities in Pyongyang

Dutch companies are increasingly conducting Information Technology projects in low-cost countries. Also known as offshore sourcing, this way of working means that labor-intensive activities, such as the programming of computer software, are being done abroad. Asia is the most popular software destination, and Indian IT firms are involved in large projects for Dutch enterprises such as ANB Amro Bank, KLM, Philips or Heineken. More recently, we notice a growth in the software collaboration with China.

As a Dutch IT consultant, I am specialized in offshore software development projects, and I regularly travel to India and China. Recently, I was invited for a study tour to an Asian country which I had never visited before: North Korea. I had my doubts whether to accept this invitation. After all, when we read about North Korea, it is mostly not about its software capabilities. The current focus of the press is on its nuclear activities and it is a country where the Cold War has not even ended, so I was not sure if such a visit would be useful. And finally, such a trip to a farshore country would at least take a week.

Nevertheless, I decided to visit this country. This decision was mainly based on what I had seen in China. I had already traveled to China five times this year, and the fast growth of China as a major IT destination was very clear to me. China is now the production factory of the world, but China’s software industry has emerged to become a global player in just 5 years. Several of the largest Indian IT service providers, including TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Satyam, have established their offices in China, taking advantage of the growing popularity of this country. However, I also noticed that some Chinese companies themselves are outsourcing IT work to neighboring North Korea. And since my profession is being an offshore consultant, I have no choice but to investigate these new trends in country selection, so I accepted the invitation to visit Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. I happened to be the first Dutch consultant to research the North Korean IT-sector ever, and the one-week tour turned out to be extremely interesting. Quite surprisingly, the country offers interesting business opportunities for European companies.

Korea Computer Center
My study tour was organized by KCC (Korea Computer Center), the largest IT-company in the country. Established in 1990, it is state-owned and has more than one thousand employees. It is headquartered in Pyongyang and has regional branches in eleven cities. My accommodation has been arranged at the KCC campus, which comprises of several office buildings. It also has iown hostel, with a swimming pool, for foreign guests. These guests are mainly Asian (during my stay, there were Chinese delegations), so I had to get used to having rice for breakfast. In the evenings, the restaurant doubled as a karaoke bar, and some of the waitresses appeared to be talented singers. The campus is located in a rather attractive green area, and the butterflies flying around were the largest I had ever seen. It also has sporting grounds, and basketball was during my one-week visit the most popular game among KCC staff. An internal competition takes place during lunch hours.

Korea Computer Center is organized in different specialized business units. Before their representatives started with presentations, I received a tour through the premises. As is the case in India and China, the programmers at KCC also work in cubicles. KCC develops various software products, of which some are especially designed for the local market. Examples are a Korean version of Linux and translation software between Korean, Japanese, Chinese and English. They also produce software for Korean character and handwriting recognition and voice recognition. Other products are made for export, and North Korean games to be used on mobile phones are already quite popular in Japan. There are also games for PC’s, Nintendo and Playstation; their computer version of Go, an Asian chess game, has won the world championship for Go games for several years. The games department has a display showing all the trophies which were won during international competitions.

For several years, KCC is active as an offshore services provider and it works for clients in China, South Korea and Japan. For these markets, North Korea is a nearshore destination, and quite a few North Korean IT-staff do speak Chinese or Japanese. KCC also has branch offices in various Chinese cities, including Beijing and Dalian. It works for both foreign software product companies and end user firms, such as banks. For these clients, different types of applications have been developed, for example in the field of finance, security or Human Resources. Europe is a relatively new market for the North Koreans, and some of their products have been showed for the first time at the large international IT-exhibition CeBIT, in 2006 in Hannover, Germany.

The level of IT-expertise was high, with attention to quality through the use of ISO9001, CMMI and Six Sigma. KCC develops embedded software for the newest generation of digital television, for multimedia-players and for PDA’s (Personal Digital Assistants). Surprisingly, it also produces the software for the mobile phones of South Korean Samsung. I was shown innovative software which could recognize music by humming a few sounds. In less than a second, the melody was recognized from a database of more than 500 songs. Also applications for home use were developed, such as accessing the Internet by using a mobile phone to adjust the air conditioning. KCC also Photo: KCC campus in Pyongyang made software to recognize faces on photographs and video films. They gave me demonstrations of video-conferencing systems, and applications for distance learning. There was a separate medical department, which made software to be used by hospitals and doctors, such as systems to check the condition of heart and blood vessels.

Supply of IT-labor In countries such as The Netherlands, the enrollment in courses in Information Technology is not popular anymore among the youth, and a shortage of software engineers is expected. This situation is different in many offshore countries, where a career in IT is very ‘cool’. Also in North Korea, large numbers of students have an interest to study IT. I visited in Pyongyang the large Kim Chaek University of Technology, where there are much more applications, than available places. Although my visit took place during the summer holiday, there were still students around at the faculty of Informatics. In order to gain experience, they were conducting projects for foreign companies. I spoke with students who were programming computer games or were developing software for PDA’s. A large pool of technically qualified workforce is now available in North Korea. Some of the staff is taking courses abroad and foreign teachers (e.g. from India) are regularly invited to teach classes in Pyongyang.

Business Process Outsourcing
Some companies in Pyongyang are involved in activities in the field of BPO (Business Process Outsourcing), an areas which includes various kinds of administrative work. Because of the available knowledge of the Japanese language, the North Koreans are offering back-office services to western companies engaged in doing business with Japan.

In order to get an understanding of this type of work, I visited Dakor, which was established 10 years ago in cooperation with a Swiss firm. This joint venture is located at the opposite side of Pyongyang, across the Taedong river. It works for European research companies, and it receives from them scanned survey forms electronically on a daily basis. It processes these papers and returns the results within 48 hours to their clients. The company is also conducting data-entry work for international organizations such as the United Nations and the International Red Cross. Their data, which is stored on paper only, is being made available for use online. Dakor is also offering additional services, such as producing 2D and 3D designs for architectural firms, and it is also programming websites.

Animation
North Korea is already famous as a production location for high quality cartoons and animation. Staff of the American Walt Disney Corporation described the country as one of the most talented centers of animation in the world. The specialized state corporation SEK Studio has more than 1500 employees, and works for several European producers of children films. New companies are being founded as well, and I visited Tin Ming Alan CG Studio. This firm was set up in early 2006, and is located in a new office building in the outskirts of Pyongyang. Its main focus is in Computer Graphics and in 2D and 3D animation it uses the latest hardware and software, including Maja. Some of the staff of Tin Ming Alan speak Chinese and the company has a marketing office in China. They are hired by Chinese advertisement companies to make the animation for TV-commercials. It also works on animation to be included in computer games.  Several employees of this young company come from other animation studios and have more than ten years of experience in this field.

The North Korean IT sector seems to be dynamic, where new firms are being established, and where business units of larger organizations are being spun-off into new ventures. I visited the Gwang Myong IT Center, which is a spin-off from Korea Computer Center. It is specialized in network software and security, and it produces anti-virus, data encryption, data recovery, and fingerprint software. This firmis internationally active as well; it has an office in China and among its clients are financial institutions in Japan.

Issues of country selection
My study tour revealed that North Korea has specific advantages. The local tariffs are lower than in India or China, thus giving western firms the option of considerable cost reductions. The commitment of North Korean IT-firms is also high, and the country is therefore also an offshore option for especially smaller or medium sized western software companies. Outsourcing work to North Korea could also be used to foster innovation (e.g. developing better products or new applications). This country can be used for research as well (from Linux to parallel processing).  Based from my interaction with Korean managers and software engineers, I do not believe that the cultural differences are larger than with China or India. My communication with them, both formal and informal, was pleasant. Communicating with North Koreans is clearly less difficult than with Japanese.

The North Korean companies have experiences with a wide range of development platforms. They work with Assembler, Cobol, C, Visual Studio .Net, Visual C/C++, Visual Basic, Java, JBuilder, Powerbuilder, Delphi, Flash, XML, Ajax, PHP, Perl, Oracle, SQL Server, MySQL, etc. They can do development work for administrative applications, but also technical software, such as embedded software or PLC’s. North Korea is very advanced in areas such as animation and games, and I have seen a range of titles, including table tennis, chess, golf, or beach volley. The design of many of their applications was modern and according to the western taste.

Over the recent years, North Korea is opening up for foreign business. This process makes offshore sourcing easier, and even investing in an own software subsidiary or joint venture can be considered. This does not mean that North Korea is potential software destination for every user of offshore services. The country is a subject of international political tensions. In addition, a number of circumstances require specific attention, such as the command of the English Language.  As is the case with China, the North Korean IT staff are able to read english bu thtey do not speak it very well.  Another issue is the relative isolation of the country, and in order to arrange an invitation, a visa is required.  The limited number of direct flights is another disadvantage; one can only travel directly from Beijing or Moscow.  If projects will require a lot of communication or knowledge transfer, it might be recommended to do some parts of the work in China, by the Chinese branches of the North Korean companies. Executing a small pilot project is the best way to investigate the opportunities in more detail.

Conclusion
North Korea has a large number of skilled IT professionals, and it has a high level of IT expertise in various areas.  The country is evolving into a nearshore software destination for a growing number of clients from Japan, China and South Korea. An interesting example of their success is the work they are doing for South Korean giant Samsung, in the field of embedded software for mobile phones.

North Korean IT-companies are now also targeting the European market, and the low tariffs and the available skills are major advantages.  Smaller and medium sized software companies can consider this country as a potential offshore destination, and should research the opportunities for collaboration or investment in more detail. Taking part in a study tour, as I have done, is an excellent way to get more insight in the actual business opportunities of a country – not only in the case of North Korea but for all nearshore and farshore destinations.

Paul Tija is the founder of GPI Consultancy, an independent Dutch Consultancy firm in the in the field of offshore IT sourcing. E-mail: info@gpic.nl
GPI Consultancy, Postbus 26151, 3002 ED Rotterdam
Tel: +31-10-4254172 E-mail: info@gpic.nl http://www.gpic.nl