North Korean Economy Watch

According to Business Week German auto parts manufacturer, Prettl, became the first non-Korean firm to start building a plant inside a joint inter-Korean factory complex in North Korea–breaking ground Wednesday.  Kim Min-kyung with the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee claims the factory will be open in December and employ 550 North Koreans.

Other facts:

Two Chinese companies also signed contracts last year to run factories in the area but have not started construction, Kim said.

A total of 69 South Korean companies are currently operating in the zone, employing some 23,220 North Korean laborers, according to the management committee.

The full article can be found here:
German firm breaks ground in North Korea
Business Week
3/5/2008

Writing in today’s Asia Times, Dr. Leonid Petrov analyses the complexity of Russia, Rok, DPRK, and Chinese relations:

Russia and North Korea:

Territorial claims, in one form or another, involve almost all countries adjacent in this region with the exception of Russia and Korea. The Joint Russian Federation-DPRK Commission for the Demarcation of State Borders has recently completed its work by documenting and marking the 17-kilometer frontier. This strip of uninhabited and swampy land in the mouth of the Tumannaya (Tuman-gang) River plays an exceptionally important geopolitical role. It not only provides the two countries with land access to each other, but also prevents Chinese access to the East Sea (Sea of Japan).

China and North Korea: 

Here, some 50km north of the small port that forms the core of North’s Rajin-Seonbong Special Economic Zone, the interests of Russia and China are now at stake. Russia is rapidly repairing the railroad track, and China (in a similarly speedy manner) is constructing a new automobile highway, both leading from their respective borders to the port of Rajin. Russia, investing at least 1.75 billion rubles (US$72 million) into this project, seeks to strongly connect Rajin (and the rest of northern Korea) to its Trans-Siberian Railroad. China, in turn, hopes to divert the growing cargo traffic to its own territory, offering the efficient network of railroads for delivery of South Korean and Japanese goods to Central Asian and European markets. What position will the government of North Korea take in this clash of ambitions?

Russia and South Korea (energy and trade):

In 2007, the volume of the export of “black gold” from Russia to South Korea reached 38.13 million barrels (2.7 times more than in the previous year). The relative proximity of the Russian oil and gas fields is an attractive factor for Korean companies who actively search for alternatives to Middle East oil suppliers. This year South Korea will for the first time start importing natural gas from Russia. The expected volume of delivery during 2008 is 1.5 million tons (or 5.1% of South Korea’s annual demand).

and

Trade relations between Russia and Korea are steadily growing. According to customs statistics, last year Russia recorded the sharpest increase of South Korean imports (56.2% more than in 2006). Due to the inflow of “petro-dollars” the new class of nouveaux riches in Russia began actively buying Korean automobiles, cell phones, television sets and LCD monitors. South Korea exported to Russia goods worth US$8.1 billion (including $3.296 billion of automobiles, $859 million of mobile phone equipment, motor vehicles and spare parts worth $659 million). As for trade with North Korea, in 2006 Russia occupied third place after China and South Korea and absorbed 9% of the total $3.18 billion spent by the North on imports.

More on Russia/South Korea energy talk here. 

The whole article deserves reading here:
Russia lays new tracks in Korean ties
Asia Times
Leonid Petrov
3/5/2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 08-3-7-1
3/7/2008
 
North Korea’s latest demand at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is a 100 USD per person registration fee for South Korean workers residing in the complex’s dormitories. The North demanded the fee early in 2007 to cover registration and issuance of registration certificates regarding workers visiting or residing in the complex, and negotiations have been underway the entire year.

An unnamed source close to the South Korean government stated, “At the end of January, the North unilaterally decided on the KIC visiting and residing fees, and when they were not complied with [the North] notified [the South] that they would ban entrance” to the complex, however, “despite this, currently entrance into the complex is freely obtainable.”

The North set a 35 USD fee for registering a short-term stay of up to 90 days, and a 100 USD fee for registering a one-year residency, according to the source. A Unification Ministry official acknowledged, “The fee demanded by the North is not exorbitant, but from the perspective of the businesses in the complex, negotiations on reasonable measures were in progress.”

North Korea is making its demands based on the ‘Kaesong Industrial Zone Entrance, Dwelling and Residence Regulation’ enacted in December 2003. According to this regulation, fees must be paid for issuance and reissuance of registration papers when applying for short term stays up to 90 days, long term visits over 90 days, and residency of one year or more. Currently, there are over 800 South Korean employees who would need to pay fees for visiting or residing at KIC.

Details are starting to emerge on North Korea’s recent anti-corruption drive.   

North Korean authorities have been investigating the chief of a North Korean committee in charge of inter-Korean economic cooperation for months after seizing $20 million from his house, a report said Friday.

Quoting an unidentified Chinese source informed on North Korean affairs, the Dong-A Ilbo newspaper said Pyongyang authorities are intensifying their investigation into Jung Woon-eop and 80 other officials of the committee over where the money came from.

It is possible that this is just a good old fashoned purge.

It is also possible that this campaign is the first stage in a policy shift.

The full article can be found here:
NK Official Suspected of Embezzling Funds From Seoul
Korea Times
Jung Sung-ki
02-22-2008

How pervasive is the flow of outside information in North Korea?  Typically stories in the media answer this question as though geography is the determinate variable: Cities near the Chinese border are the most influenced by heterodox ideas (since cell phones, clear television signals, and smuggling have been commonplace for years), and cities in the south (along the DMZ) are the most isolated (aside from Kaesong).  North Korea’s internal travel restrictions prevent foreign ideas from spreading.  This view was recently repeated by Andrei Lankov.

“The Kaesong exception” is thought to be correlated to the growth of the the Kaesong Industrial Zone.  The theory goes that the thousands of North Koreans who are employed in Kaesong (who work in South Korean facilities for South Korean managers) pick up bits of outside information at the margin and share it with their friends and family back home.  It is not an unreasonable theory.   

A new story in the Daily NK, however, presents evidence which points to ideological contamination on a nationwide scale (irrespective of geography).  The story claims that the city of Haeju is not only thoroughly exposed to South Korean radio and television – it is a production hub of a pirate video market:

“We can receive the TV broadcast of KBS (Korean Broadcasting System) and SBS (Seoul Broadcasting System) fine in Haeju. Sometimes, we can watch MBC (Moonhwa Broadcasting Corporation) as well. I watched Dae Jo Yong (a popular TV drama from KBS) on TV. However, I wanted to watch it again, so I bought a CD and watched it several more time.” He said, “We can get copies of South Korean TV programs from China. However, a great number of copies are also produced in Haeju.”

In a nod to communist efficiency, the subject interviewed in the Daily NK story even claims that in Haeju it is easier to pick up South Korean television signals than those from North Korea! 

With a “manufacturing” facility in Haeju, black market DVDs or VCDs can be copied and distributed throughout the south east even if security is tighter along the Chinese border.  Additionally, these DVDs/VCDs would be cheaper and more widely distributed because they are produced locally (as opposed to using Chinese labor/capital) and will require fewer middlemen to get them across the border and into the hands of consumers.  If this has been going on for some time, then it is safe to assume that most urban centers from Haeju to Pyongyang have regular access to South Korean media! 

Of course a decline in acceptance of the state ideology means the government must rely on external controls (rather than an individual’s self-control) to maintain the system.  The good news is that external controls can be avoided through technolgy, corruption, or both: 

“In the border areas with China and South Korea such as Hwanghae and Kangwon Province, the North Korean authorities try to prevent people from watching S. Korean TV by soldering and pre-tuning TV sets to Chonsun (North Korea) Central TV. Lately, the authorities also attempt to restrict the usage of remote control by covering the sensor with silver paper.

However, North Korean people circumvent the regulation. Instead of giving away their remote control to the authorities, they purchase an extra and watch the TV as they please after removing the silver paper. After all, the authorities’ efforts to control TV channels turn out to be futile for those who have remote control TV sets.

The full article can be found here:
North Korean People Copy South Korean TV Drama for Trade
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
2/22/2008

At its height, North Korea’s socialist infrastructure was responsible for the vast majority of the people’s standard of living.  Ration coupons and large purchases (such as for a car or refrigerator) were all provided through one’s employer.  This is because society was vertically integrated, with state-owned companies and ministries providing a broad array of social services that are handled by a variety of agents in a capitalist society (food, housing, education, childcare, health care etc..). There was little room for markets, or even prices, in people’s lives.

Although this system only worked for North Koreans in large urban areas, and excluded those in smaller villages and the country side who were much more dependent on themselves, for the vast majority of North Koreans today that system (or social contract) is a distant memory.  Out of fiscal necessity it has been chiseled away over the years, and as a result the scope for individual entrepreneurship in both the public and private spheres is increasing.  I do not want to give the impression that capitalism is running wild, but when compared to the past, the control of the North Korean state over the lives of its people is diminished.

One practice which has been retained to some degree, however, is the distribution of gifts or special provisions on the birthdays of the two leaders, Kim il Sung and Kim Jong il.  The scale of one’s gift, however, allegedly depends on one’s rank in society.  A common farmer might get a new pair of socks.  A senior Worker’s Party official probably receives a good deal more.  One estimate puts the value of these special gifts at USD$20m. 

The origins of these gifts are mixed.  Some are donated by foreigners.  Some are imported by the leadership.  Others are made domestically by the people themselves.

According to a story in today’s Daily NK, creeping marketization – bringing with it an increase in price and quality discrimination,  has left many North Korean consumers less than impressed with this year’s gift offerings:

A North Korean source in Shinuiju said in a phone conversation on the 17th, “When looking at the goods provided this time around, the quality has gone up as a whole in contrast to the past. However, the citizens did not attach too much significance to the ‘Great General’s gift’ as in the past.”

The source relayed the public sentiment as “Goods more valuable than his gifts are all over the place in the jangmadang. A portion of the people has said, ‘Special provisions are not necessary. Just do not regulate the markets.'”

In Shinuiju, a bottle of luxury liquor, 2kg of tangerine, and two pheasants were provided to the party organization through the “special provision’ and a bottle of liquor and a modest amount of fruits such as apples and tangerines were given to regular organizations. The People’s Units received a bottle of liquor, a toothbrush, and a bar of soap and pre-school and elementary school students received five pieces of gum, two rice crackers, two packs of chips, and one pack of candy.

The source added, “Those receiving the ‘title of hero’ and the Secretaries in charge of the county parties were given boxes marked with the label ‘gift,’ but its contents are uncertain.”

Another source in Hoiryeong in a phone conversation on this day said, “A bottle of liquor, a bar of soap, and a bottle of toothpaste were provided through the February 16th holiday provision and the children received a pack of candy, two packs of chips, a pack of pea candy, two packs of rice crackers, and seven pieces of gum.”

He also expressed discontent, saying, “It is pitiful to have to wait in line in front of the stores through which provisions are handed out for a mere bottle of liquor and soap.”

In the Hyesan, Yangkang Province region, laborers working at state enterprises were given 3kg of Annam rice (wild rice) and a bottle of liquor and oil were given to average households.

North Korea, in time for Kim Jong Il’s birthday in 2007, provided around 10 food items and daily necessities, including liquor and beer, cider and rice tally, oil, chips, and gum, to civilians.

In 2007, 200g of chips, 200g of candy, 100g of rice snacks, and five pieces of gum were given to elementary school students. Due to the shortage in foreign currency, special provisions were not offered to average civilians.

A caveat to this story is that all of the data points are from the large cities on the Chinese border.  These cities have benefited the most from trade with China and in all likelihood are the most “ideologically contaminated” in the DPRK.  

Source:
Jangmadang Goods Are More Valuable Than the General’s Gifts
Daily NK
Choi Choel Hee
2/21/2008

Since Orascom announced at the end of January that it was going into the cell phone business in the DPRK, there has been a lot of follow up reporting which has flushed out a broader picture of the DPRK’s attempts to launch a mobile phone network.

Today Yonhap is reporting that Pyongyang will likely go live with the Orascom project in April, although on a piecemeal schedule:

The measure will affect only Pyongyang, the North’s capital, this time and gradually expand to cover other major cities in the communist country, the Tokyo Shimbun said, quoting an unnamed North Korean official in Beijing.

North Korea has prohibited its people from using mobile phones since a deadly explosion occurred at the Ryongchon train station near the North’s border with China in April 2004. Debris of a mobile phone with adhesive tape attached to it was reportedly found at the scene of explosion, leading the authorities to impose the sudden ban in the belief that the mobile phone could have been used as a detonator.

More details of the deal also emerged:

Cheo [an Orascom subsidiary] secured a 25-year license and will invest up to US$400 million in network infrastructure. The North Korean state company owns a 25 percent stake in Cheo, Orascom said.

How accessible will the  new phones be?

Choi Yeong-cheol, 43, who defected from North Korea in 2006, said that senior party and administrative officials as well as trade workers were given mobile phones for free in 2002. “But ordinary people have not even dreamed of using a mobile phone because it cost them 170,000 North Korean won,” Choi told Daily NK, a Seoul-based Internet newspaper. The figure of 170,000 won is big money considering the average monthly payment for ordinary North Korean workers is up to 3,000 won (US$1) now.

The full article can be found here:
N.K. to lift mobile phone ban in April: Japanese daily
Yonhap
2/18/2008

During the late 1990s, North Korea suffered a terrible economic collapse which resulted in famine and massive social dislocation.  During this time, most ministries and state-owned companies  were cash-strapped and unable to maintain their operations.  Out of desperation they turned to private investment for much needed revenues by outsourcing many basic services. (Individuals who were capable of taking up such opportunities were probably small in number at the time, but apparently now compose a healthy sub-section of the population.)

Outsourcing has benefited both the government and private entrepreneurs.  Outsourcing allows state-owned companies to receive capital financing from private individuals as well as a share of joint-venture revenues (tax revenues).  Private entrepreneurs need a legal business environment where they know they will not be subject to ex-post expropriation of profits.  Leasing the name of a government body gives them some of this legal cover.  This system is no doubt tolerated because it allows the government create space for entrepreneurship (and tax revenue) within the existing state structure while still maintaining de jure control of the means of production.   

According to the story in the Daily NK, the regulations for establishing a legitimate passenger bus company under this system (or “coach” company for readers in Her Majesty’s Commonwealth) are fairly strict.  Once an individual acquires a bus (appx US$6,000-10,000), he has to register it with the government body for whom he is working.  Revenues are then split 70/30 (the government taking 30%) for three years, after which the individual is required to “donate” the privately acquired bus to the state-owned enterprise.  This policy literally gives North Korean entrepreneurs just three years to recoup their investments!

The response of the North Korean business community was predictable:  investors sell the buses before the three years are up or they forge registration papers.  This is not hard to do in the DPRK.  In fact if you have just one other associate who owns a bus in similar condition, all you need to do is trade with him every three years and re-register the new vehicle. 

Word of this game has finally reached the top and they have responded by increasing their share to 70% of passenger bus revenues–leaving just 30% for the purchaser of the vehicle.  It is unclear from the story if investors are still required to “donate” their busses after three years, but realizing that the confiscation of buses was not enforceable, the North Korean government probably just opted for a larger share of the revenue over time.

The good news is that it is not likely that many people pay 70% of revenues either.  After-all, someone has to collect these taxes and he has needs too.  Sounds like some kind of arrangement could be reached…

You can read the full story here:
North Korea Regulates Operation of “Service Car”
Daily NK
2/18/2008

Update:
It seems opposition efforts to spare the South Korean Ministry of Unification were not entirely successful. Yonhap is reporting that even though the ministry will retain its name, much of the rest of it is on the chopping block.

Sources said that if the ministry is retained, its five divisions and one office may be reduced to a single office and three bureaus, with part of its work transferred to the other ministries.

The ministry’s five division headquarters — including unification policy, economic cooperation and cultural exchange — are likely to be reorganized into smaller bureaus, with public relations and information analysis to come under the direct control of the minister.

The office in charge of the Kaesong industrial complex may be turned over to the newly created Ministry of Knowledge-based Economy.

However, the ministry may retain control of inter-Korean dialogue headquarters, the inter-Korean transit office, and a settlement support team for people who have fled North Korea.  (Yonhap)

Although I personally favor an engagement policy with the DPRK, sending the signal that MoU standard practices will no longer be tolerated might actually encourage the DPRK to use donated funds and supplies in an acceptible way.  Remember: carrots AND sticks.  See the game theory here.  However, since the DPRK’s new game seems to play the US, China, Russia, and South Korea off of each other, some are concerned that pushing the DPRK too hard on accoutability and transparency in managing their donations might simply shift North Korea more firmly into China’s corner–which according to Lankov, they already have a strong incentive to do… 

Original Post: 2/8/2008
In the political shake up following the recent South Korean elections, incoming President Lee Myung-bak floated the idea of merging the Ministry of Unification (responsible for the North Korea protfolio) with the South Korean Foreign Ministry.  The story is here.

Today, Reuters is reporting that the Unification Ministry is here to stay.  Afterall, the first rule of bureaucracy is, “Why have one ministry when you can have two at twice the cost!” 

South Korean lawmakers have agreed to spare the ministry responsible for relations with North Korea and reject a call for its closure made by the president-elect, local media reported on Saturday.

The compromise allows the Unification Ministry to stay while lawmakers try to strike a deal to shut other ministries in a plan backed by Lee to streamline government, local media reported lawmakers as saying.

Critics say Lee’s proposal to close the ministry primarily responsible for relations with North Korea could send the wrong signal to Pyongyang, which has long accused Lee’s conservative party of plotting to keep the peninsula divided.

The Unification Ministry has been at the centre of criticism that the outgoing government had been too soft on the impoverished North, pouring aid across the border despite internationally condemned missile and nuclear tests. (Reuters)

The full article can be found here:
South Korea to keep ministry on North: media
Reuters
Rhee So-eui
2/8/2008

New gov’t to downsize Unification Ministry
Yonhap
2/17/2008

When looking at North Korea’s cities on Google Earth one can’t help but notice the number of monuments to the Great Leader.  But if you are looking for the true heart of the cities, in other words where all the people are, you need to look closely for North Korea’s markets.  They do have them–in all of the major cities visible on Google Earth:

 
 
(Clockwise from upper left) Markets in Pyongyang, Kaesong, Sinuiju, and Wonsan

This week, the Daily NK reported that the new regulations and crackdowns on market activity are meeting with resentment in Pyongyang. 

What happened?  Supposedly Pyongyang’s new Party Chief Secretary suggested to Kim Jong Il the idea of converting the jangmadang into farmers markets (in other words only selling agricultural goods from the countryside as in the past), and Mr. Kim approved it.

As of January 15, public announcements were placed on the entrances of marketplaces detailing what could/could not be sold in the market.  Violators are subject to having their goods confiscated by inspection units (these sorts of policies are ripe for promoting corruption).

Ever entrepreneurial, North Korean sellers simply adapted, shifting location from inside the marketplaces to back-alleys.  Seemingly, they are still subject to inspection and confiscation in these local neighborhoods, but apparently the risk is lower.  Several of these street markets are also visible on Google Earth:

But others have decided to stay put in the markets and simply hide their goods:

A portion of the people still secretly trade in the jangmadang. Simultaneously avoiding the inspection units, they refrain from putting out the goods and bargain with customers by holding up signposts. When they tell the passing-by customers, “This is what I have,” a bargain is reached. Of course, the goods are temporarily stored at a nearby residence and taken out after the bargain. (Daily NK)

Lankov also discussed the regulations and games people play to avoid the market inspection units here. 

The full article can be found below:
Jangmadang Will Be Converted to Farmers Markets
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
2/13/2008