North Korean Economy Watch

Hat tip to the Korea Liberator:

China and North Korea announce joint efforts to extract oil from the Yellow Sea. According to Yahoo News:

Tuesday June 6, 12:07 PM
China and North Korea have agreed to explore jointly for oil in the Yellow Sea that borders both countries, the Chinese foreign ministry said.

‘China and North Korea have agreed on the joint development of oil resources in the border sea and signed a joint development agreement between governments,’ ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told journalists.

Liu gave no further details other than to say the two nations will continue work on the details of the arrangements.

Another foreign ministry official later confirmed the area to be jointly developed will be in the Yellow Sea.

The announcement came as North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam-Sun ended an eight-day visit to China today, a trip that Liu described as ‘successful’ while giving away few other details.

According to a report issued in December by the Washington-based Center for International Policy, North Korea has already laid claim to three northernmost Yellow Sea basins thought to hold oil.

The North Koreans had discovered up to 3 bln tons of recoverable oil and gas reserves in the Yellow Sea off its coast, the center said, citing a report by Chinese authors in the Marine Geology Letters journal.

China’s foreign ministry gave few details about Paek’s visit to China, other than to say he met Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.

But how much reserves does the DPRK have?  According to the Center for International Policy’s Asia Program,

One-third of 15 exploratory wells have shown oil, and Pyongyang may be sitting on information about larger deposits.

“North Korea has found on the continental shelf of the West Bay basin an area containing 3bn tonnes (21.9bn barrels) of oil and gas reserves,” Li Yandong and Mo Jie wrote in a 2002 issue of journal Marine Geology Letters.

North Korea says these are recoverable reserves pinpointed by its own scientists, said a Chinese expert with knowledge of the situation, who declined to be named.

Even a more modest estimate of 1.2bn barrels reported by Busuph Park, an expert in North Korea’s offshore efforts, would meet centuries of current consumption, although some academics say the peninsula has almost no commercial oil.

At the North Korean embassy in Beijing, an official dismissed with a laugh reports of up to 9bn tonnes of reserves and said the country was still investigating.

Additionally, the story points out the the British company Aminex has committed to building North Korea’s oil industry.  Chief Executive Brian Hall told Reuters, “We have involved their people and are training them, so we are trying to build ourselves into the framework of things.”

“They can take a very long time to do things, we have quite a high degree of frustration sometimes. You have to be prepared to tough it out… but the prize is worth persevering for.”

UK oil firm strides into N Korea
BBC
9/20/2004

Anglo-Irish oil company Aminex has signed a 20-year deal to develop North Korea’s oil industry.

Aminex said it would provide technical assistance to North Korea. In addition, it will be permitted to explore and drill throughout the secretive country.

Should Aminex strike oil, it will get royalties on any of its own production, as well as being entitled to earnings from wells drilled by other firms.

Aminex believes its prospects of striking oil in North Korea are good.

“We all dream of making a big discovery,” chief executive Brian Hall told BBC News Online. “And if you don’t put yourself in a position where the possibilities are high, you will never do it.”

A number of potential sites are close to some of China’s most productive oil fields, he said. Announcing the contract, Aminex called North Korea as “highly prospective”.

Patience rewarded

The company, which is listed on the London and Dublin stock markets, reckons that a lack of resources has so far restricted progress in prospecting for oil the East Asian country.

North Korea “has an existing petroleum industry and several wells have been drilled onshore and offshore over a 25 year period, resulting in limited discoveries of oil,” Mr Hall.

Aminex has been looking at opportunities in North Korea since its first visit there in 2001.

It signed a deal with North Korean officials on 30 June 2004 in Pyongyang but postponed an announcement “because of a number of outstanding issues that have now been resolved”.

Mr Hall said he hoped that developing the oil industry might help to thaw international relations, which have become frosty in recent months amid concerns about the country’s nuclear programme.

“At present, relations between North Korea and the outside world are strained but the important relationship with South Korea appears to be improving and commercial co-operation is on the increase,” said Mr Hall.

“An expanding energy industry may possibly help to build bridges between North Korea and the outside world.”

Tough environment

North Korea is one of the world’s most secretive countries, and among the poorest.

Millions of are thought to have died during the famine of the late 1990s. More recently, North Korean officials have made tentative steps towards economic reforms similar to those implemented by China, one of its few allies. But tensions over the country’s nuclear programme remain a stumbling block to investment.

Aminex has existing operations in the US, Russia and Tanzania.

Korea Herald 
Lee Joo-hee
6/2/2006

An international consortium yesterday announced the termination of a technically defunct nuclear reactor project in North Korea.

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization said it will also seek compensation from Pyongyang for the dissolution of the costly light-water reactor project in Geumpo.

“KEDO requires payment from the DPRK for financial losses in connection with the light-water reactor project, and any issues between KEDO and the DPRK in this regard should be settled in accordance with KEDO’s agreement with the DPRK,” the statement said. DPRK stands for Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.

South Korea, the United States, Japan and the European Union created KEDO in 1994 after an agreement between Washington and Pyongyang to build a light-water reactor in the energy-stricken state in return for the North’s suspension of any nuclear activities. The construction began in Aug. 1997.

But the project was halted in 2002 when the United States accused North Korea of a clandestine nuclear weapons program using uranium.

The participating countries, most of which now belong to the current six-party talks, agreed last year that the KEDO project was defunct.

All the materials that were being built outside North Korea for the reactor will be handed over to South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation, the main contractor for the project.

The materials, including a nuclear reactor, turbine generator and other supporting tools, are reportedly worth 830 million won.

KEPCO will in turn bear some 150 million to 200 million won in compensation that must be given out to other smaller contractors involved with the project, the Unification Ministry here said.

KEPCO will also be liberated from any other legal or political responsibilities that could follow the termination of KEDO by bearing the compensation costs, it said.

North Korea, in the meantime, will be required to return all the other assets related to the light-water reactor.

The entire termination will likely take about a year, the ministry said.

South Korea has been taking the initiative in the $1.56 billion project. Seoul put up nearly $1.14 billion, while Japan provided $407 million and the EU $18 million. The United States was in charge of providing heavy fuel oil.

All the South Korean and American workers who were staying in the construction site for maintenance returned home in January this year.

After the invalidation of the 1994 agreement between Washington and Pyongyang, multilateral negotiations convened in 2003 under Chinese mediation.

After years of deadlock, the six nations finally agreed on the joint statement of principles last September.

Based on the new agreement, five of the six members are to give unspecified aid to the North in return for a complete dismantlement of nuclear programs.

The implementation of the agreement, however, faces many hurdles as North Korea has since refused to join the next round of negotiations, citing the United States’ hostile policies.

Joong Ang Daily
6/2/2006

The death knell sounded on Wednesday in New York for a once-ambitious project to build two nuclear power plants in North Korea.

The board of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization officially abandoned the project, citing a lack of cooperation by North Korea.

A statement from the organization complained of a “continued and extended failure” by Pyongyang to cooperate in international efforts to end its nuclear weapons programs.

In Seoul, a Unification Ministry official said that the board of the organization, an international consortium overseen by the governments of Korea, Japan, the United States and the European Union, had also agreed to formulas on how to liquidate the assets of the organization. Because Seoul committed to shoulder the bulk of the costs of the nuclear power project, its termination, government officials fear, could leave it open to criticism for a waste of taxpayer money.

To try to head off that criticism, the ministry official emphasized that even though Korea would shoulder the remaining outstanding costs of winding up the project, it would also take title to all the equipment that had been manufactured for the project but not yet shipped to the North. He said the value of that equipment was estimated at about $800 million. In total, he added, the Korean government has paid $1.1 billion of the $1.5 billion that has been spent on the project throughout its life; its remaining obligation in wind-up costs, he said, would be about $200 million.

The project was conceived in 1994 as an effort to cool tensions between the United States and North Korea over the latter’s nuclear programs, which Washington believed were focused on developing nuclear weapons. Pyongyang agreed to freeze those programs in return for two power reactors and a supply of fuel oil that would continue until the reactors came on line. The agreement began to unravel in late 2002, when Washington accused Pyongyang of secretly developing a nuclear weapons program using uranium.Work on the project was suspended in November 2003, and North Korea ordered a KEDO caretaker force out of the site last January.

A bid by Seoul to divide the termination costs among other KEDO members apparently failed. Seoul had tried to keep the project alive for as long as possible in hopes that the infrastructure at the nuclear site could be used in some sort of new arrangements with North Korea.

The statement by the KEDO board also reportedly demanded – certainly without any expectation of success – that North Korea compensate the organization for its financial losses.

As the KEDO nuclear project shriveled, a new effort to strip North Korea of its nuclear weapons emerged, the “six-party talks” among the Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States, to try to find a formula to end the North’s nuclear ambitions. Those talks have also floundered. Yesterday, Pyongyang invited Christopher Hill, the U.S. negotiator at those talks, to visit Pyongyang to discuss efforts to revive them, saying his visit would be a sign of Washington’s political will to implement an agreement in principle last September that Pyongyang would abandon its nuclear efforts in return for development aid and diplomatic recognition.

A senior Korean official said he doubted Mr. Hill would go, adding that Pyongyang would have to make some sort of gesture of its serious intent in order to tempt Washington into agreeing to such bilateral contacts.

Joong Ang Daily
6/1/2007

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, or KEDO, announced yesterday that the project to build light water reactors at Sinpo, North Korea, has been scrapped. The infiltration of a North Korean submarine into Gangneung, South Korea, in 1996 and the firing of a Daepodong missile in 1998 were all incidents that cast a shadow on the project. In particular, the admission in 2002 by North Korea that it was working on a nuclear program using enriched uranium was the final straw in the Bush administration’s decision to halt a project that it was already skeptical about. In response, the North withdrew from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and went on to declare in 2005 that it possessed nuclear weapons. Such developments led to today’s situation.

The confrontation between North Korea and the United States does give us something to think about. While agreeing with us on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the North secretly hung on to developing nuclear weapons. In response, in 1994, we cooperated with the United States but were not even allowed into the negotiations yet we still agreed to cover 70 percent of the cost of the light water reactor project. That may have been inevitable, because South Korea was the country most threatened. Nevertheless, it is debatable whether the negotiations in which Seoul paid the bills but had no say in the matter were the best method. This is an issue that the government needs to ponder seriously.

It has also become clear that the changes in U.S. foreign policy with a new administration are too much for us to deal with. Even though we threw away $1.1 billion, a solution to the North Korean nuclear problem seems to be even further away, Washington continues to cling stubbornly to its new policies.

So the administration should think about what it has learned from this experience and how it should use that knowledge. One good example is the announcement by Seoul last year that it would provide 2 million kilowatts of electricity to the North even before figuring out what the North’s answer would be.

The announcement was billed as an “important proposal,” but the North has turned a blind eye to it and says it wants a light water reactor. With an astronomical amount of tax money already having disappeared, isn’t offering to provide electricity to the North another burden? Whether it’s North Korea or the United States, others have an ability to think strategically and look into their opponents’ minds. Why not us?

Will this have repercussions in the south’s credit rating?

From the Daily NK:

On May 22, an official of Moody’s Investor Service, a Credit Rating Agency, announced that despite Kim Jong Il’s visit to China early this year, North Korea did not show indications for internal economic reformation.

On May 22, Vice-president Thomas Byrne of Moody’s Investor Service rated the possibility of North Korea towards economic reformation negative in the North Korean Economic Outlook Symposium held by Institute for Corean-American Studies(ICAS) in the Rusell Senate Building.

Vice-president Byrne estimated that North Korea failed to adjust its currency and exchange rate, and its trade environment was not improved, so that rather its economic situation was worse. Plus, he emphasized that North Korea did not show any signs of internal economic reformation.

He said about Gaesung Industrial Complex that, “If 5 more complexes like Gaesung Industrial Complex develop, we can see North Korea be in the economic reformation’s process, yet the Complex is no more than a symbol”. He emphasized that if North Korea has a strong resolute for economic reformation, “it should follow the economic model of South Korea because the way to Seoul is easier than the train to Shanghai for it”.

Vice-president Byrne warned that if South Korea would continue to support North Korea economically, it would face economic crisis soon.

While saying that, “The difference between the approaches of South Korea and the U.S is not great enough to make an impact on the credit rating of South Korea”, he stated, “Due to North Korea, South Korea always gets a lower credit rating than its original rating”.

Meanwhile, a special correspondent informed that North Korean-Chinese trader Lee Dae Kil(pseudonym, 49) who recently came back from North Korea showed a negative opinion about North Korean economy.

Mr. Lee said that, “There has been little profit in spite of trades with North Koreans for a few years”, and “North Koreans buy and sell only for living, not for investment for profits. He said that, “The North Korean government does not show even such efforts”,.

Mr. Lee said that, “After it was known that the U.S blocked banks banking with North Korea, dollar transactions sharply decreased”, and “There were people who even asked me about what happened outside”.

From Yonhap:

By Lee Dong-min
WASHINGTON, May 22 (Yonhap) — South Korea is fiscally able to handle its economic aid to North Korea, but the situation may change in the future when it will be required to spend more on its social welfare system, a senior official at Moody’s suggested Monday.

Speaking at a symposium by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS), Thomas Byrne, vice president of the international credit rating agency, said he does agree that North Korea is headed to meaningful economic reforms.

South Korea is one of three nations whose geopolitical risks are considered in judging its credit rating. Israel and Taiwan are the others.

Divided since the end of the three-year Korean War in 1953, the Korean Peninsula remains tense and volatile as Pyongyang seeks nuclear weapons it claims it needs as a deterrent against possible U.S. attack.

According to Byrne, the situation keeps South Korea one notch below the credit rating it normally deserves.

In trying to ease the tension, Seoul has been trying to engage Pyongyang by providing food and other types of economic assistance. A recent project involves an industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong where South Korea’s smaller firms have built manufacturing plants to use North Korea’s cheap labor force to make their products more price-competitive.

Byrne said Moody’s assesses the fiscal implications of South Korea helping to keep North Korea’s debilitated economy afloat.

“In fact, the North Korean economy is more unstable now,” he said, citing hyperinflation, backfired currency reform efforts and minuscule international trade hovering at US$3 billion a year.

Seoul, along with Beijing, is a major donor to Pyongyang, but it may be pressured to think otherwise, according to the Moody’s official.

With its aging society and expected large expenditures in social welfare and health care, South Korea will need a larger domestic budget, he said.

“Domestic social welfare demands would compete with sunshine/co-prosperity policy if the latter continues to increase, or increase sharply in the future,” said Byrne.

Despite North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s visits to China that many saw as his study of Beijing’s economic reform path, the Moody’s official didn’t see any significant signs.

“I don’t see any internally generated reform process,” he said. “North Koreans aren’t anywhere near the positions of embarking on policies of China… or Vietnam.”

Kaesong is, at least for now, more important for South Korea than North Korea and not enough to show that Pyongyang is changing, he said, “If there were five other Kaesongs in North Korea, then it may mean something to North Korea… then, maybe North Korea is changing,” Byrne said.

The tension over North Korea’s nuclear problem intensified with U.S. accusations that Pyongyang was counterfeiting American currency and dealing in contraband.

In September, the U.S. Treasury designated Macau’s Banco Delta Asia (BDA) a primary money laundering entity working for North Korea, saying the bank was abetting Pyongyang’s illicit financial activities.

Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary of treasury, said there is “very little question” that North Korea was involved in counterfeiting U.S. dollars, mostly $100 notes commonly called “supernotes.”

“Every seizure of these notes has been linked to each other… all of them have involved distribution by North Korean diplomats,” he told the ICAS symposium.

He again denied that the action against BDA was in any way meant to affect the nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

“This is a new approach to U.S. national security,” Glaser said, emphasizing that it was under new laws and newly created offices that steps like those against BDA were coordinated.

Wendy Cutler, assistant U.S. trade representative, focused on upcoming free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with South Korea that she hopes will have far-reaching effects beyond the two nations.

“This agreement will help underscore U.S. commitment to engage the Asian region … the U.S. is committed to developing robust trade relationships in Asia,” she told the symposium.

Seoul and Washington will hold their first formal FTA talks next month in Washington and hope to come up with a final draft by end of this year.

Cutler, who heads the U.S. side in the negotiations, noted that FTAs require political decisions that defy strong domestic opposition.

FTA opponents in South Korea plan to come to Washington to protest the launch of the negotiations, alarming law enforcement officials of both countries.

Cutler said despite press reports of such opposition, polls indicate general support.

“It’s important to know that the Roh (Moo-hyun) administration and the majority of the Korean population and business community support the FTA,” she said.

A U.S. trade official, reacting to reports of protesters coming to Washington, cited the same polls.

“You need to keep in mind that based on polls in Korea, overall sentiment in Korea is strong support for the FTA,” the official said.

A group of 72 South Korean businessmen, government officials, academics and journalists toured a manufacturing company in the capital of communist North Korea yesterday, the second day of their visit. The delegates also visited the Korea Computer Center and the Grand People’s Study Hall ― the country’s central library ― and attended an investment promotion session conducted by the North’s Trade Ministry.

During their visit to the Pyongyang March 26 Cable Factory, the group surveyed production lines and automated manufacturing facilities as well as finished products. They were allowed to speak to the factory managers, who oversee 1,500 workers producing 10,000 cable products. With $2 million investment from pro-Pyongyang Koreans overseas, the factory upgraded its facilities recently.

“We hope to adopt the more advanced technology of the South in the future,” Kim Seok-nam, head manager of the plant, said. “I want to nurture this factory, one of the most representative plants in Pyongyang, as a global manufacturer.”

Mr. Kim said the factory is operated 24 hours a day in three shifts. “We purchased a Swedish wire drawing machine recently and that reduced our electricity consumption and increased production.”

The South Korean visitors expressed surprise that the North Korean factory was better equipped than they had expected it to be.

“There is still room for improvement, but the North’s manufacturing facilities are much more modernized than I thought,” said Hwang Eun-yeon, a manager with Posco. “With South Korea’s support and cooperation, the North will be able to make improved products.”

The South Koreans toured the Korea Computer Center, a state-run software developer. The North’s word processor program and a medical test program were presented to the rare South Korean visitors. A cerebral vessel measurement machine, developed by the computer center, is currently on sale in the South at the price of $20,000 per unit. Among the delegates, the businessmen showed particular interest in a Korean version of the Linux operation system that had been developed by the North.

“We have sent 200 specialists to China for training and joint development,” Kim Chol-ho, vice president of the computer center, said. “We want more active exchanges with South Korean information technology companies.”

The computer center was built in 1990 with funding from North Korean residents in Japan, and the Cabinet’s software industry bureau has been overseeing the institute since 2002. The center employs about 1,500 elite graduates of North Korea’s science schools with special funding from the government.

The delegates also attended an investment relation session hosted by the North’s Trade Ministry in the afternoon. The group is scheduled to attend the International Trade Fair and visit a glass product manufacturer today.

From Yonhap: 

South Korea’s state-run industrial complex operator on Wednesday began work on a manufacturing and residential facility in this North Korean border city that will house 40 labor-intensive companies from the South.

The “factory apartment” will be completed in June 2007 and cost 21.1 billion won (US$22.3 million), the Korea Industrial Complex Corp. (KICOX) said.

The five-story building will have manufacturing areas, living quarters for workers, a training center for North Koreans and other amenities.

When completed, the landmark project is expected to provide 3,100 jobs to both South and North Koreans and annual production will top 22 billion won, it said.

A total of 15 firms have set up operations in the park or plan to move there. North Korea designated Kaesong as a special economic zone in 2002 to make it easier for South Korean companies to do business in the area.

The groundbreaking ceremony was attended by more than 200 officials and businessmen from the two Koreas. The South Korean representatives included Commerce and Industry Minister Chung Sye-kyun, KICOX President Kim Chil-doo, Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun and STX Corp. Chairman Kang Duk-soo.

“The new project promises benefits for all sides, with South Korean companies benefiting from enhanced competitiveness as a result of cheaper manufacturing costs, while the North gets new jobs and chance to acquire important skills,” Chung said.

The minister stressed the South Korean government will do its part so that the ongoing process will continue.

In response, Ju Dong-chan, head of North Korea’s special zone management agency, said the North also wanted to make Kaesong into a world-class industrial complex. He said that despite difficulties, mutual goals of prosperity can be attained if the two Koreas work together.

KICOX said the facility would have considerable advantages over other plants in Kaesong in efficiency and cost savings and help the companies harness cheap but skilled North Korean labor.

“Providing comprehensive support for small companies under a single roof will help cut operational costs to a considerable degree,” a top executive involved in the project said, adding that pooling electricity, water, training and other logistical requirements will cut costs.

Making full use of favorable conditions provided by the new factory is expected to raise the competitiveness of companies that have to compete in the South Korean market with cheap imports from China and Southeast Asia.

The corporation said the 40 resident companies will be selected in the second half of the year and that many companies are likely to vie for factory space.

In addition to the groundbreaking ceremony, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy brokered the signing of 16 deals between companies operating in Kaesong and South Korean retailers and large manufacturers in an effort to help market their products.

Conglomerates such as Hyundai Mobis Co., South Korea’s top auto parts maker, and tech giant Samsung Electronics Co. agreed to purchasing contracts with companies based in the North Korean city, the ministry said.

“The latest pacts are expected to help boost sales of companies operating in Kaesong,” a ministry official said.

From the Joong Ang daily:

North Korea and China have agreed to jointly build two hydroelectric power plants on the Amnok River, also known as the Yalu River in China, on the border between the two countries, Chinese media reported yesterday. The site is where the ruins of a 2,000-year-old walled city and 2,360 “massive tombs” of Korea’s ancient Goguryeo kingdom were recently found.

According to the local newspaper Jilin Daily, North Korean delegates from the Ministry of Power and Coal Industries and China’s central government, along with Jilin provincial officials, signed the agreement at Changchun, the capital city of Jilin province, on Sunday.

North Korea and China had planned in 1995 to construct the two power plants. According to the accord, China and North Korea will each build a dam with a power plant.

China will begin construction on its dam as early as late this year, Chinese media said. The North is expected to build its dam about 16 kilometers south of the Chinese power plant.

From Joon Ang daily:

South and North Korea have agreed in principle to conduct test runs on the Gyeongeui and Donghae railway lines across the Demilitarized Zone and will settle the essential military security procedures at general officer talks tomorrow.  If the two sides agree and the test runs do take place, their meaning and effects will be significant.

According to research by experts, the railways would enable North Korea to earn $300 million-$400 million annually from freight and service charges. Also, if Pyongyang could modernize its railroad facilities with outside help, it could be an opportunity for North Korea’s industry to record rapid growth.

For South Korea, the opening of the railroads could reduce logistics costs with the North by one-third, and it would help Seoul to emerge as a hub of northeast Asian logistics. The event also holds great symbolic meaning as it allows Korea to become a point of contact with continental Asia. The agreement is the first step to a project that could benefit both Koreas.

The question is North Korea’s attitude in the future. During the past two years, Pyongyang has agreed on the inter-Korea railway test runs only to go against its word later. This time the North agreed on a test run again and even fixed a date. Some analysts have suggested that the past promises were broken because North Korea demanded massive raw material aid from the South in exchange for agreeing to the tests.
But we do not want to pay unnecessary attention to matters of the past. Pyongyang, however, must bear in mind that unreasonable requests, like asking for Seoul’s concession on the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, will not be tolerated. It must also refrain from considering the test runs as a one-time event to get some additional aid.
The agreement was made during a period of increasing tension between South Korea and the United States regarding the application of pressure on North Korea.

Considering Washington’s financial sanctions on North Korea and its acceptance of North Korean refugees, there is little chance that the Bush administration will welcome the recent decision.

It is different here. But while welcoming advances in relations with North Korea, the majority of Koreans also believe that conflict with the U.S. is undesirable. Therefore, the government must have a responsible explanation to the people about the correlation between the agreement and relations with the Bush administration.

From the Korea Herald:

“The train wants to run further.” A sign bearing these words has stood for decades at the point on a western railway line where the track between Seoul and Pyongyang had been cut. Nearby, the rusting skeleton of a steam locomotive decays with the passage of time.

Following the 2000 Pyongyang summit between former President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, work started to re-connect the Gyeongeui Line and another link along the East Coast. The delicate process of clearing numerous landmines in the heavily fortified border area attracted worldwide attention. The actual tracks, however, were only laid last December, evidence of the tardy pace of progress in inter-Korean relations.

Finally, the two Koreas last week agreed to conduct test runs of trains on the restored lines next Thursday. A South Korean train will travel from Munsan to Gaeseong in the North and a North Korean train from Mt. Geumgang will journey to Jejin in the South. Still, this does not signify the actual beginning of a railway service between the Koreas for passenger and cargo transportation, not even on a small scale.

The North Korean military is said to be standing in the way of opening the border-crossing rail route because they fear the exposure of military facilities along the tracks. But the real reason must be that Kim Jong-il is not ready to accept South Korean overtures for speedier and broader inter-Korean exchanges which would follow the completion of the railway link program.

Opening an inter-Korean railway link is of more than symbolic importance. Widely touted as “the iron silk road” during North-South dialogue, it would connect South Korea to the trans-Siberian and trans-China railways and enable cheaper and faster transportation of goods originating from the Pacific basin to Europe via land routes. North Korea could earn substantial income in the form of passage charges and expect foreign investment in logistics and other sectors.

The Pyongyang leadership is asked to make a wise, practical decision concerning the railway project which will be the first major step to integrate the North into the world economy.
 

From the Joong Ang Daily:

A group of 60 South Korean businessmen and government officials arrived here yesterday to attend the Pyongyang International Trade Fair and inspect other factories and businesses in North Korea.

During the six-day visit, the delegates will also listen to investment presentations at a seminar conducted by Pyongyang officials.

The visit of the South Korean team was linked informally by its sponsors, the Korea Development Institute and the JoongAng Ilbo, to an agreement in April 2002 between the two governments to exchange economic survey missions. Reporters from the newspaper were also allowed to accompany the delegation, a somewhat unusual gesture by the North Korean authorities.

A team from North Korea did conduct such a tour in the South in October 2002, but that visit has not been officially reciprocated. Although not sponsored by the South Korean government, Seoul officials on the delegation said, it could be considered an economic survey team.

The group from Seoul will be the first to attend the Pyongyang International Trade Fair, the ninth of its kind.

Pyongyang announced a series of cautious economic reforms in July 2002, and although some important ones, such as throwing food distribution open to private sellers, have been reversed, businessmen here have not had an opportunity to see what’s going on in the North Korean economy.

Seoul officials and businessmen here have cited that uncertainty and lack of information as a major reason for holding back investments.  The group includes delegates from 36 businesses and research institutes and 15 government officials from nine ministries.
Conglomerates such as SK, Posco, Kumho Asiana, Hanwha, CJ and TongYang are represented in the group, as are a handful of smaller companies.