North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
5/5/2007

European companies operating in North Korea have been running a business coalition to better coordinate trade ties with the reclusive nation, a businessman said Saturday.

“Our purpose is to build bridges between Europe and North Korea,” Felix Abt, chairman of the European Business Association (EBA), said in an interview with Washington-based radio station Radio Free Asia. The association was founded in April 2005.

The businessman, who is also president of the joint venture PyongSu Pharma Co., said European firms need to do more business with Pyongyang, whose business ties are heavily dependent on Northeast Asia.

The association comprises 11 companies, mostly European or joint ventures between European and North Korean state-run firms. DHL, the logistics arm of Germany’s Deutsche Post AG, is also a member.

North Korea’s trade with the European Union accounted for less than 10 percent of its total volume in 2004, while trade with China surged by 35.4 percent, according to the EBA’s Web site.

American Enterprise Institute Book forum
4/17/2007

A couple of weeks ago, I had the opportunity to attend a book forum at the American Enterprise Institute on Nicholas Eberstadt’s new book, The North Korean Economy: Between Crisis and Catastrophe.  It was very informative to hear three different perspectives on the direction of North Korea’s economic reform.

Panelists included:

Nicholas Eberstadt, AEI
Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University
Deok-Ryong Yoon, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

In summary, Mr. Eberstadt and Mr. Lankov are pessimistic about the North Korean leadership’s desire to enact reforms–knowing that information leakages will undermine their political authority.  As Mr. Lankov pointed out, the North Korean nomenklatura are all children and grandchildren of the founders of the country who are highly vested in the current system.  They have no way out politically, and as such, cannot reform.

They argue that the economic reforms enacted in 2002 were primarily efforts to reassert control over the de facto institutions that had emerged in the collapse of the state-run Public Distribition System, not primarily intended to revive the economy.  Lankov does admit, however, that North Korea is more open and market-oriented than it has ever been, and  Mr. Yoon was by far the most optomistic on the prospects of North Korean reform.

Personally, I think it makes sense to think about North Korean politics as one would in any other country–as composed of political factions that each seek their own goals.  Although the range of policy options is limited by current political realities, there are North Koreans who are interested in reform and opening up–even if only to earn more money.  In this light, even if the new market institutions recognized in the 2002 reforms were acknowledged only grudgingly, they were still acknowledged, and their legal-social-economic positions in society are now de jure, not just de facto.  The North Korean leadership might be opposed to wholesale reform, but that is economically and strategically different than a controlled opening up on an ad hoc basis–which is what I believe we are currently seeing. Anyway, dont take my word for it, check out the full commentary posted below the fold:

(more…)

Yonhap
4/24/2007

The South Korean government said Tuesday that it plans to invite U.S. companies to an investor relations (IR) gathering at the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea this year.

The event, planned for October, will permit American businessmen to see firsthand the growth of the industrial park that is being built with South Korean capital, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said.

The complex is one of the crowning achievements of the June 2000 summit meeting between the leaders of South and North Korea.

More than 20 South Korean companies are making shoes, clothing, watches and mechanical parts in the industrial park just north of the 248-kilometer-long demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas.

“The IR trip is not directly related to the recently agreed-upon free trade pact between South Korea and the United States,” said Hong Suk-woo, deputy minister for trade and investment.

Washington said it does not consider Kaesong part of South Korea and cannot extend preferential treatment to products made there.

In addition to the IR trip, the official said plans are under way to arrange one or two TV programs to be aired with English captions to provide information to foreign businessmen.

“The government is also considering a 24-hour English-language radio broadcasting that can provide timely information to foreign living in South Korea,” Hong said. China, Japan and Germany have such radio programs.

He said the ministry and related agencies plan to set up joint project teams to aggressively target specific companies for investment in the country.

“Government ministries, 16 regional administrations and the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency will form teams that will work as one to attract investments,” he said.

The deputy minister said the 16 regional governments plan to set up three foreign corporate investment teams each by the end of the month so they can begin contacting prospective partners. Particular attention will be paid to attract investment in hightech areas including chemicals, electronics, semiconductors and machinery.

He said without going into details that some foreign companies have expressed interest in investing in South Korea.

Hong said the government expects foreign direct investment to reach $11 billion by the year’s end, roughly the same as last year’s $11.2 billion.

Yonhap
4/22/2007

South and North Korea on Sunday agreed to conduct test runs of cross-border railways next month and make efforts to ensure a military guarantee for their safe operations.

The South also agreed to provide 400,000 tons of rice to the impoverished North in late May, but the accord reached by the two sides did not include a commitment by North Korea to take steps toward dismantlement of its nuclear programs, said pool reports from Pyongyang, the venue of the talks.

The Koreas announced a 10-point agreement on test runs of cross-border railways, rice aid and expanded economic cooperation after they engaged in marathon talks. The four-day talks stretched into an extra day as the two sides failed to thrash out differences by the deadline.

“The two Koreas will hold working-level talks to discuss operations of cross-border railways in Kaesong on April 27-28,” the agreement said. They agreed to make efforts to secure a military security guarantee prior to conducting the test runs on May 17.

The security issue was a main sticking point as South Korean officials contended that the test runs will be “meaningless” if there is no safety guarantee on the part of the North Korean military.

In May 2006, North Korea abruptly called off the scheduled test runs under apparent pressure from its hard-line military.

The two sides were originally scheduled to issue a joint press statement at 2 p.m. on Saturday, but they held a series of overnight negotiations to settle remaining differences and work out the wording for a final draft of a joint statement.

On Thursday, the North Korean delegation stormed out of the conference room to protest the South’s call for the North’s quick implementation of a denuclearization agreement, but talks resumed later as scheduled.

“During the talks, we made clear that it will be difficult to provide rice unless North Korea acts to fulfill the Feb. 13 agreement,” Chin Dong-soo, chief of the South Korean delegation, said in a press briefing held in Pyongyang after the announcement of the agreement.

South Korea also agreed to provide raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap in June in return for its natural resources. A South Korean delegation will visit envisioned development sites in the North that month. Working-level negotiations on this issue will be held in the North Korean border city of Kaesong on May 2-4.

Shortly after the North conducted missile tests in July, the South suspended food and fertilizer aid. But fertilizer aid was resumed in late March, a few weeks after the two sides agreed to repair their strained ties.

During the talks, the North called for receiving raw materials from the South in exchange for providing its natural resources “close to the time when railway test runs are conducted,” the pool reports said.

But the South made clear that it will provide the North with US$80 million worth of raw materials only after the two sides conduct the test runs.

The reconnection of severed train lines was one of the tangible inter-Korean rapprochement projects agreed upon following the historic summit between then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2000.

The tracks, one line cutting across the western section of the border and the other crossing the eastern side, were completed and set to undergo test runs. A set of parallel roads has been in use since 2005 for South Koreans traveling to the North.

In 2005, South Korea agreed to offer raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals, such as zinc and magnesite, after mines were developed with South Korean investments guaranteed by Pyongyang.

But the economic accord was not implemented as North Korea cancelled the test runs of the railways last May.

The pool reports said the South pushed to include the use of overland transportation in a clause of the agreement, but the two sides failed to see eye-to-eye on the issue. They agreed to hold talks in Kaesong to discuss ways of advancing into third countries in the field of natural resource development.

The next economic cooperation meeting will be held in the South in July 2007, and the two Koreas agreed to reach an agreement on the prevention of flooding in shared areas near the Imjin River and implement it after exchanging a document in early May.

The latest inter-Korean agreement came just a week after the communist nation failed to meet the April 14 deadline to shut down and seal its nuclear facilities under a six-nation agreement signed in Beijing in February.

North Korea has said it would take the first steps toward nuclear dismantlement as soon as it confirms the release of its funds frozen in a Macau bank since September 2005.

Macau’s financial authorities unblocked the North’s US$25 million in Banco Delta Asia, but the deadline passed with no word from the North on whether it has confirmed the release of the funds or when it will start implementing the initial steps.

Under the Feb. 13 agreement, North Korea pledged to shut down its main nuclear reactor and allow U.N. inspectors back into the country within 60 days. In return, North Korea would receive aid equal to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil from South Korea.

The U.S. promised to resolve the financial issue within 30 days, but failed to do so because of technical complications.

Science Magazine
Vol. 316. no. 5822, p. 183
DOI: 10.1126/science.316.5822.183
Richard Stone
4/13/2007

In a dramatic new sign that North Korea is emerging from isolation, the country’s first international university has announced plans to open its doors in Pyongyang this fall.

Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST) will train select North Korean graduate students in a handful of hard-science disciplines, including computer science and engineering. In addition, founders said last week, the campus will anchor a Silicon Valley-like “industrial cluster” intended to generate jobs and revenue.

One of PUST’s central missions is to train future North Korean elite. Another is evangelism. “While the skills to be taught are technical in nature, the spirit underlying this historic venture is unabashedly Christian,” its founding president, Chin Kyung Kim, notes on the university’s Web site (www.pust.net).

The nascent university is getting a warm reception from scientists involved in efforts to engage the Hermit Kingdom. “PUST is a great experiment for North-South relations,” says Dae-Hyun Chung, a physicist who retired from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and now works with Roots of Peace, a California nonprofit that aims to remove landmines from Korea’s demilitarized zone. To Chung, a Christian university is fitting: A century ago, Christianity was so vibrant in northern Korea, he says, that missionaries called Pyongyang “the Jerusalem of the East.”

The idea for PUST came in a surprise overture from North Korea in 2000, a few months after a landmark North-South summit. A decade earlier, Kim had established China’s first foreign university: Yanbian University of Science and Technology, in Yanji, the capital of an autonomous Korean enclave in China’s Jilin Province, just over the border from North Korea. In March 2001, the North Korean government authorized Kim and his backer, the nonprofit Northeast Asia Foundation for Education and Culture (NAFEC), headquartered in Seoul, to establish PUST in southern Pyongyang. It also granted NAFEC the right to appoint Kim as PUST president and hire faculty of any nationality, as well as a contract to use the land for 50 years.

NAFEC broke ground in June 2002 on a 1-million-square-meter plot that had belonged to the People’s Army in Pyongyang’s Nak Lak district, on the bank of the Taedong River. Construction began in earnest in April 2004. That summer, workers–a few of the 800 young soldiers on loan to the project–unearthed part of a bell tower belonging to a 19th century church dedicated to Robert Jermain Thomas, a Welsh Protestant missionary killed aboard his ship on the Taedong in 1866.

NAFEC’s fundraising faltered, however, and construction halted in fall 2004. The group intensified its Monday evening prayers and broadened its money hunt, getting critical assistance from a U.S. ally: the former president of Rice University, Malcolm Gillis, a well-connected friend of the elder George Bush and one of three co-chairs of a committee overseeing PUST’s establishment. “He made a huge difference,” says Chan-Mo Park, president of Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), another co-chair. South Korea’s unification ministry also quietly handed PUST a $1 million grant–more than it has awarded to any other North-South science cooperation project. This helped the school complete its initial $20 million construction push.

At the outset, PUST will offer master’s and Ph.D. programs in areas including computing, electronics, and agricultural engineering, as well as an MBA program. North Korea’s education ministry will propose qualified students, from which PUST will handpick the inaugural class of 150. It is now seeking 45 faculty members. Gillis and other supporters are continuing to stump for a targeted $150 million endowment to cover PUST operations, which in the first year will cost $4 million. Undergraduate programs will be added later, officials say. PUST, at full strength, aims to have 250 faculty members, 600 grad students, and 2000 undergrads.

PUST hopes to establish research links and exchanges with North Korea’s top institutions and with universities abroad. “It is a very positive sign,” says Stuart Thorson, a political scientist at Syracuse University in New York who leads a computer science collaboration between Syracuse and Kimchaek University of Technology in Pyongyang. “Key to success will be achieving on-the-ground involvement of international faculty in PUST’s teaching and research.”

Some observers remain cautious, suggesting that the North Korean military could use the project to acquire weapons technology or might simply commandeer the campus after completion. A more probable risk is that trouble in the ongoing nuclear talks could cause delays. At the moment, however, signs are auspicious. Park, who plans to teach at PUST after his 4-year POSTECH term ends in August, visited Pyongyang last month as part of a PUST delegation. “The atmosphere was friendly,” he says. “The tension was gone.” The Monday prayer group continues, just in case.

Choson Ilbo
4/12/2007

Last year a Chinese company took a 51-percent stake in Hyesan Youth Cooper Mine in Yanggang Province, North Korea. Hebei-based Luanhe Industrial Group now has the right to develop the mine for the next 15 years.

North Korea also sold a 50-year development claim to the Musan iron mines, Asia’s largest open-air mine, to China’s Tonghua Iron & Steel Group. Since 2006, North Korea has sold the rights to develop more than 10 mines to Chinese firms.

KDB Research Institute, an affiliate of Korea Development Bank, has raised concerns with a report released Wednesday that details China’s intensive investment in North Korean natural resources. According to the report, since 2002 China has invested US$13 million (US$1=W932), more than 70 percent of its total investment in North Korea, in iron, copper and molybdenum mines.

The major investors come from the three northeast provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning. They have moved the focus of their investment from small-scale, commercial opportunities to strategic deals to secure energy resources, the report said.

According to the report, China’s Wukang Group bought the rights to dig the Yongdeung mine, North Korea’s largest hard coal mine, and another Chinese company invested in a North Korean project to develop an oil field in the West Sea. The North has also allowed Chinese fishermen to fish off the coast of Wonsan, a North Korean port city on the east coast, in return for 25 percent of the catch.

Since North Korea lacks funds while China suffers from a shortage of natural resources the two are forming joint development projects, said KDB Research Institute researcher Chung Eui-jun, the writer of the report.

Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, said in the Wall Street Journal last July that the Chinese government seems to have made a strategic decision to encourage Chinese firms to invest in North Korea as a way to maintain its influence with its long-time ally in the post-Kim Jong-il era.

Yonhap
Park Hyun Min
4/11/2007

An report estimated that it would cost North Korea 39.7 trillion won (approx. US$ 42.7 billions) during the first 14 years of reform and development.

A report released on the 9th by Managing Director Kim Won Bae and fellow associates of the Northeast Asian Regional Development Center for the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, analyzed the costs required by North Korea to commence essential reform based on agreements made to the resolution of North Korea’s nuclear issues.

On an optimistic premise that North Korea and foreign diplomatic relations normalize and that proactive reform and development policies are implemented, the report forecasted that the North Korean economy would rapidly grow similar to China and Vietnam. Contrastingly, if reform policies remained passive and the normalization of foreign relations delayed, the report predicted that the country would be unable to escape from the adverse state.

The report estimated that a minimum of 23.7 trillion won and maximum 39.7 trillion won would be needed for investments, if active reform were to take place. Retrospectively, if reform were to take a slow stance, then approximately 11.5~26.4 trillion won would be needed.

For every 1 trillion won North Korea invested in construction, the report claimed that it would gain approximately 2.7 trillion won. If South Korea were to invest 1 trillion won in North Korea, then the affect would be a little less with a profit of 2.5 trillion won.

Furthermore, if North Korea development was based on South-North cooperation, then South Korea would have the burden of supporting North Korea 319~698 billion won annually during the first phase (2007~2011), and then an additional 1.29~1.95 trillion won during the second phase (2012~2020).

If the international community became involved, South Korea would only need to support 336~515 billion won annually in the first phase and 651 billion won to 1.11 trillion won during the second.

The report also claimed that the direction of the development on the Korean Peninsula should be based on cooperation between South and North Korea with the possibility of transferring this support to neighboring countries.

Further, basic facilities managed by South-North Korea cooperation would be supervised into three industries and development around the border locations currently separating South and North Korea would be managed by North Korea. This would extend to raw materials and production also.

Mr. Kim who was in charge of the research project said, “Already, cooperation between the South and the North is accurately and effectively taking precedence over the North Korea issue within the international community” and added, “North Korea, the Korean Peninsula, nations interested in understanding North Korea and the international community must join to destroy North Korea’s nuclear development, support the North Korean economy and help solve its issues.”

Yonhap
4/4/2007

South and North Korea will open their first joint college later this year in a show of warming ties between the two sides, officials said Wednesday.

The Pyongyang Science and Technology College is scheduled to open in the North’s capital on Sept. 10 and will initially house 150 graduate students for such courses as master of business administration (MBA).

“We had originally planned to open it in April but strained inter-Korean ties delayed the project. The favorable environment will make the project go smoothly this time,” said Lim Wan-geun, a boarding member of the Northeast Asia Foundation for Education and Culture.

Kim Jin-kyong, dean of Yanbian Science and Technology College, will be the first dean of the inter-Korean college, the official said. The college will consist of a five-story building for lectures, a four-story building for a library, dining facilities and research and five dormitory buildings.

Inter-Korean relations have warmed considerably since the 2000 summit of their leaders, but tension persists since the rival states are still technically in a state of war, as no peace treaty was signed at the end of the Korean War.

South Korea suspended its food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after it conducted missile tests in July. A possible resumption of the aid was blocked due to the North’s nuclear bomb test in October.

But the relationship was revived after North Korea promised to end its nuclear weapons program in return for energy aid, and the two sides held the first ministerial talks in seven months in March.

Koreas to open first joint university
Korea Herald
Cho Ji-hyun
3/15/2007

The first joint university between South and North Korea will open in Pyongyang in September, a senior member of the founding committee told The Korea Herald.

South Koreans including Park Chan-mo, president of POSTECH in Pohang, visited Pyongyang yesterday to discuss the establishment and operation of Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, or PUST.

Early last year, the Northeast Asia Foundation for Education and Culture, a Seoul-based nonprofit organization, agreed with the North’s education authorities to open PUST as early as last October.

The schedule has been delayed due to the lack of progress in their talks amid tensions caused by North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests last year.

Their contacts have recently resumed as the ties between the two Koreas improved following the six-party agreement on the North’s nuclear programs in Beijing.

In an interview with The Korea Herald, Park, a member of the founding committee, said the school will open in September and that further discussions will take place before the opening.

The visiting delegation includes Kim Chin-kyung, president of Yanbian University of Science and Technology, who assumes the post of founding president of the Pyongyang university.

Choi Kwang-chul, professor of Seoul’s Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, also joined the trip.

For the four-day trip, they are to inspect the progress of construction work, and discuss the cross-border passage of faculty and internet connections for the school.

“We will raise two demands – constructing a land route between the two Koreas to allow professors to travel across the borders and providing internet connection,” Park said.

A Seoul government official also confirmed that the school will open in September.

The project was first initiated in 2001. The Northeast Asia Foundation for Education and Culture plans to expand the school into a university with 240 professors and more than 2,000 students from both countries.

However, the university plans to open with 50 professors and 200 students participating in master’s and doctoral programs in its first year, university officials wrote on their school website.

The university project is led by Park, Lee and Malcolm Gillis, former university president of Rice University in Texas.

In a separate effort, POSTECH has worked on a joint project with the Pyongyang Informatics Center, or PIC, since April 2001, according to Park.

Using PIC’s three dimensional computer aided design program, POSTECH has completed the development of a software called “Construction,” which offers a virtual walk through the construction site to detect errors, he said.

Yonhap
4/3/2007

Incoming Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said Tuesday that goods produced in a joint industrial complex in North Korea will benefit from a free trade pact agreed upon with the United States the previous day.

Denying reports that the free trade agreement put aside the country-of-origin issue for future negotiations, Han said that the two countries cleared the way for treating goods produced in the Kaesong Industrial Complex as made in South Korea.

“The media reports that the Kaesong Industrial Complex was put on as a ‘built-in’ agenda are not true,” Han, who took office early in the day, told reporters in his inaugural press conference at the government building.

A “built-in” agenda refers to a negotiating scheme for sensitive issues in which the countries involved agree to put them on hold and discuss them in the future. Local reports have called the Kaesong issue “built-in,” as Seoul has been pushing for its inclusion in the trade deal despite Washington’s objection.

Under the deal, the two sides agreed to establish a “committee on outward processing zones on the Korean Peninsula” to discuss the Kaesong issue as part of their trade liberalization. But they also stipulated that such a step will be made under specific circumstances, such as the progress in denuclearizing North Korea, according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Han said the agreement is in line with South Korea’s constitution that its territory is the entire Korean Peninsula, and it does not recognize North Korea as a state.

Han also said the government will make public all of the contents of the agreement in mid-May when it is expected to be completed, and all the documents related to the agreement will be released three years later.

The Kaesong complex, just north of the inter-Korean border, is one of two flagship projects the South operates in the spirit of reconciliation with the North following the historic inter-Korean summit in 2000. Over 11,000 North Korean workers are employed by dozens of South Korean companies there, where they produce garments, utensils and other labor-intensive goods. Another reconciliation project is the operation of tours to the North’s scenic Mount Geumgang.

South Korean companies operating in Kaesong say the inclusion of the goods in the FTA is crucial, as this will allow them to export goods to the world’s largest market, as well as provide a template for future trade deals with other countries. 

U.S. Accepts Kaesung Industrial Complex as an “Outward Processing Zones”
Daily NK
Kim Song
4/3/2007

A press conference was held following the conclusion of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the 2nd where Korea’s Trade Minister Kim Hyun Chong announced, “The U.S. agreed to recognize the Kaesung Industrial Complex as a remote location.” By this he meant that goods manufactured in Kaesung complex would be accepted as goods made in Korea.

As annexes to the agreement, Committee on Outward Processing Zones on the Korean Peninsula must be established. Undeniably, the article also states that the contents would have to be approved by the U.S.

It seems that both sides agreed that this approach would be the U.S.’s minimal request and compromise on the Kaesung issue and a built-in tactic to keep the negotiating flame burning rather than a deal-breaker.

Previously, the U.S. made concessions regarding Outward Processing Zones with Singapore and Israel’s FTA. As for Korea, these preferential tariffs, not only acknowledges goods manufactured from Kaesung by the FTA, but sets a standard to other sectors in the world such as the European Free Trade Association and ASEAN.

It appears that the recognition of Kaesung as an Outward Processing Zone was based on an agreement that the Korean Peninsula would advance towards denuclearization.

The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will eventually lead to the removal of laws that will further eliminate hostile diplomacy and trade between the U.S. and North Korea. It is possible that denuclearization will establish the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations and solve the issue of Kaesung naturally, in due time.

However, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is not something to be solved within a short time. As a U.S. official once revealed, amity between the U.S.-North Korea can only be possible when North Korea decides to comply with the rules of the international community. In the bigger picture of the Korean Peninsula and economic conglomerate, Kaesung in relation to denuclearization is only a long-term sketch.

Furthermore, there is one minor glitch. Kaesung complex does not match the international standards accepted by the U.S. in relation to labor requirements and such. At any opportunity given, Jay Lefkowitz, U.S. Special Envoy on Human Rights in North Korea, has continuously targeted wage issues at Kaesung complex. Additionally, there have been many criticisms on pay issues regarding North Korean laborers working even within the nation, as well as violations to contracts of employment.

Throughout the FTA, President Roh Moo Hyun has been striving to protect rice while trying to negotiate the Kaesung Industrial Complex. Though President Roh argues that political calculations were omitted from the negotiations, these two issues contradict his words.

Some argue that the future will depend on South Korea’s attitude to the U.S. It is even possible that this is a political attempt by the U.S. to lure North Korea into denuclearization.

Urgent: How to Topple Kim Jong Il
Foreign Policy Magazine
March/April 2007, P.70-74
Andrei Lankov

From: Andrei Lankov
To: Condoleezza Rice
RE: Bringing Freedom to North Korea

When North Korea tested a nuclear weapon late last year, one thing became clear: The United States’ strategy for dealing with North Korea is failing. Your current policy is based on the assumption that pressuring the small and isolated state will force itto change course. That has not happened—and perhaps never will.

North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and his senior leaders understand that political or economic reforms will probably lead to the collapse of their regime. They face a challenge that their peers in China and Vietnam never did—a prosperous and free “other half” of the same nation. North Korea’s rulers believe that if they introduce reforms, their people will do what the East Germans did more than 15 years ago. So, from the perspective of North Korea’s elite, there are compelling reasons to resist all outside pressure. if anything, foreign pressure (particularly from Americans) fits very well into what Pyongyang wants to propagate— the image of a brave nation standing up to a hostile world dominated by the United States.

Yet, sadly, the burden of encouraging change in North Korea remains the United States’ alone. China and Russia, though not happy about a nuclear North Korea, are primarily concerned with reducing U.S. influence in East Asia. China is sending considerable aid to Pyongyang. You already know that South Korea, supposedly a U.S. ally, is even less willing to join your efforts. Seoul’s major worry is not a North Korean nuclear arsenal but the possibility of sudden regime collapse. A democratic revolution in the North, followed by a German-style unification, would deal a heavy blow to the South Korean economy. That’s why Seoul works to ensure that the regime in Pyongyang remains stable, while it enjoys newfound affluence and North Koreans quietly suffer.

Do not allow this status quo to persist. Lead the fight for change in North Korea. Here are some ideas to make it happen:

Realize a Quiet Revolution Is Already Under Way: For decades, the Hermit Kingdom was as close to an Orwellian nightmare as the world has ever come. But that’s simply not the case anymore. A dramatic transformation has taken place in North Korea in recent years that is chronically underestimated, particularly in Washington. This transformation has made Kim Jong Ii increasingly vulnerable to internal pressures. Yes, North Korea is still a brutal dictatorship. But compared to the 1970s or 1980s, its government has far less control over the daily lives of its people.

With the state-run economy in shambles, the government no longer has the resources to reward “correct” behavior or pay the hordes of lackeys who enforce the will of the Stalinist regime. Corruption runs rampant, and officials are always on the lookout for a bribe. Old regulations still remain on the books, but they are seldom enforced. North Koreans nowadays can travel outside their county of residence without getting permission from the authorities. Private markets, once prohibited, are flourishing. People can easily skip an indoctrination session or two, and minor ideological deviations often go unpunished. It’s a far cry from a free society, but these changes do constitute a considerable relaxation from the old days.

Deliver Information Inside: North Korea has maintained a self-imposed information blockade that is without parallel. Owning radios with free tuning is still technically illegal— a prohibition without precedent anywhere. This news blackout is supposed to keep North Koreans believing that their country is an earthly paradise. But, today, it is crumbling.

North Korea’s 880-mile border with China is notoriously porous. Smuggling and human trafficking across this remote landscape is rampant. Today, 50,000 to 100,000 North Koreans reside illegally inside China, working for a couple of dollars a day (a fortune, by North Korean standards). In the past 10 years, the number of North Koreans who have been to China and then returned home may be as large as 500,000. These people bring with them news about the outside world. They also bring back short-wave radios, which, though illegal, are easy to conceal. It is also becoming common to modify state-produced radios that have fixed tuning to the state’s propaganda channels. With a little rejiggering, North Koreans can listen to foreign news broadcasts.

But there are few broadcasts that North Koreans can hope to intercept. It was once assumed that South Korea would do the best job broadcasting news to its northern neighbor. And that was true until the late 1990s, when, as part of its “sunshine policy,” South Korea deliberately made these broadcasts “non-provocative.” There are only three other stations that target North Korea. But their airtime is short, largely due to a shortage of funds. Radio Free Asia and Voice of America each broadcast for roughly four hours per day, and Free North Korea (FNK), a small, South Korea-based station staffed by North Korean defectors, broadcasts for just one hour per day.

Being a former Soviet citizen, I know that shortwave radios could be the most important tool for loosening Pyongyang’s grip. That was the case in the Soviet Union. In the mid-1980s, some 25 percent of Russia’s adult population listened to foreign radio broadcasts at least once a week because they were one of the only reliable sources of news about the world and, more importantly, our own society A dramatic increase in funding for broadcasts by Voice Of America is necessary.  It is also important to support the defectors’ groups that do similar broadcasting themselves. These groups are regularly silenced by South Korean authorities, and they have to do everything on a shoestring. A journalist at the FNK gets paid the equivalent of a janitor’s salary in Seoul.  Even a small amount of money- less than U.S. military forces in Seoul spend on coffee-could expand their airtime greatly. With an annual budget of just $1 million, a refugee-staffed station could be on air for four hours a day, 365 days a year.

Leverage the Refugee Community in the South: There are some 10,000 North Korean defectors living in the South, and their numbers are growing fast. Unlike in earlier times, these defectors stay in touch with their families back home using smugglers’ networks and mobile phones. However, the defectors are not a prominent lobby in South Korea. In communist-dominated Eastern Europe, large and vibrant exile communities played a major role in promoting changes back home and, after the collapse of communism, helped ensure the transformation to democracy and a market economy. That is why the United States must help increase the influence of this community by making sure that a cadre of educated and gifted defectors emerges from their ranks.

Today, younger North Korean defectors are being admitted to South Korean colleges through simplified examinations (they have no chance of passing the standard tests), but a bachelor’s degree means little in modern South Korea. Defectors cannot afford the tuition for a postgraduate degree, which is the only path to a professional career. Thus, postgraduate scholarships and internship programs will be critical to their success. Without outside help, it is unlikely that a vocal and influential group of defectors will emerge. Seoul won’t fund these programs, so it will be up to foreign governments and non-governmental organizations to do so. Fortunately, these kinds of initiatives are cheap, easy to enact, and perfectly compatible with the views of almost every U.S. politician, from right to left.

Fund, Plan, and Carry out Cultural Exchanges: The Cold War was won not by mindless pressure alone, but by a combination of pressure and engagement. The same will be true with North Korea The United States must support, both officially and unofficially, all policies that promote North Korea’s Contacts with the outside world. These policies are likely to be relatively expensive, compared to the measures above, but cheap in comparison to a military showdown with a nuclear power.

It makes sense for the U.S. government to bring North Korean students to study overseas (paid for with U.S. tax dollars), to bring their dancers or singers to perform in the West, and to invite their officials to take “study tours.” Without question, North Korean officials are wary of these kinds of exchanges with the United States. However, they will be less unwilling to allow exchanges with countries seen as neutral, such as Australia and New Zealand. In the past, Pyongyang would never have allowed such exchanges to happen. But nowadays, because most of these programs will benefit elite, well- connected North Korean families, the temptation will be too great to resist. in-other words, a official in Pyongyang might understand perfectly well that sending his son to study market economics at the Australian National University is bad for the communist system, but as long as his son will benefit, he will probably support the project.

Convince Fellow Republicans That Subtle Measures Can Work: Some Republicans, particularly in the U.S. Congress, might object to any cultural exchanges that will benefit already-privileged North Koreans. And, for many, funding Voice of America isn’t as attractive as pounding a fist in Kim’s face. But these criticisms are probably shortsighted. As a student of Soviet history, you know that mild exposure to the world outside the Soviet Union had a great impact on many Soviet party officials. And information almost always filters downstream. A similar effect can be expected in North Korea. During the Cold War, official exchange programs nurtured three trends that eventually brought down the Soviet system: disappointment among the masses, discontent among the intellectuals, and a longing for reforms among bureaucrats. Money invested in subtle measures is not another way to feed the North Korean elite indirectly; it is an investment in the gradual disintegration of a dangerous and brutal regime.

North Korea has changed, and its changes should be boldly exploited. The communist countries of the 20th century were not conquered. Their collapse came from within, as their citizens finally realized the failures of the system that had been foisted on them. The simple steps outlined here will help many North Koreans arrive at the same conclusion. It may be the only realistic way to solve the North Korean problem, while also paving the way for the eventual transformation of the country into a free society. This fight will take time, but there is no reason to wait any longer.