North Korean Economy Watch

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
5/9/2007
“If you have a second child, your rations become equivalent to a family of 4”…citizens respond apath 
 
North Korean authorities have been scrutinizing over the decreasing number of birthrates by young couples and as a result have proposed to increase the amount of rations to families having children.

If a couple gives birth to a second child in the district of Hamheung, South Hamkyung, the whole family will receive 6 months worth of distributions, a source informed. If a third child is born, the rations increase all the more.

After giving birth to a child in a hospital, a married woman from Hamheung can obtain a birth certificate, which is then submitted to the local district office, to receive distributions equivalent to a family of 4. These proposals resemble policies implemented by local district offices in South Korea.

Though Hamheung city has made efforts to increase the birthrate with distributions, the people’s response is all but cold, the source said. How many people would really have a second child just to scavenge off a few months worth of distributions.

One of the main reasons that the birthrate is decreasing in North Korea is due to the fact that women are avoiding giving birth, informed the source.

The source said, “Nowadays, North Korean women engage in businesses and are the breadwinners of the family. They are not satisfied with just having children and bringing them up” and added, “Everyone knows that it is hard enough to live and even harder if you have a lot of children.”

North Korea’s birthrate has continued to decline since the late 1990’s. The average birthrate in North Korea in 1993 was 2.1 births per family and in 2002, 2.04. Comparatively, in South Korea the birthrate per family in 1970 was 4.53 and 1.19 in 2003. Within a period of 33 years, the number of childbirths per family had reduced to 3.34 persons.

In an interview with the Jochongryeon last December, Kang Nam Il, head of the North Korea Population Research Center said, “The decrease of birthrates in our country (North Korea) is no different to that of other nations” and remarked, “Women want to have 2 children, though in the cities women have either 1 or 2 children.”

The source said, “There may be slight differences in each district. Nonetheless, most of the larger cities have adopted this proposal” and added, “This policy was implemented as North Korean authorities are finding it difficult to reach the quota for conscription and the number of students enrolling in schools.”

KCNA
5/8/2007

The national scientific and technological festival commemorating the 95th birth anniversary of President Kim Il Sung was held from May 3 to 7 at the Three-Revolution Exhibition. 

The 22nd festival of this kind took place in the forms of a symposium on latest scientific and technological achievements, a presentation of results of scientific researches, a presentation of achievements in technical innovation and a diagram show. 

Officials, scientists, technicians and working people across the country presented achievements, experiences and many scientific and technical data attained in the course of the massive technical innovation movement at local scientific and technological festivals. 

At least 570 items of data of scientific and technological results highly appreciated there were made public at 18 sections of the national festival. 

During the festival the participants introduced achievements in agriculture and light industry and valuable scientific and technological data helpful to revitalizing the national economy and lifting to a high level the technical engineering of such major fields as IT and nanotechnology, bioengineering and basic sciences and widely swapped experiences. 

Five persons carried away special prize and 53 top prize at the festival. 

The closing ceremony of the national festival took place on Monday. Present there were Choe Thae Bok, secretary of the C.C., Workers’ Party of Korea, Ro Tu Chol, vice-premier of the Cabinet, Pyon Yong Rip, president of the State Academy of Sciences, and others. 

The decision of the jury of the festival was made public at the closing ceremony and the festival cups, medals and diplomas were awarded to those highly appraised. And prize of scientific and technological merits went to seven officials who had given precious help to scientists and technicians and presented materials of new research results to the festival. 

A closing speech was made by Pak Yong Sin, secretary of the Central Committee of the Korean General Federation of Science and Technology.

Yonhap
4/30/2007

Years of efforts to cultivate North Korea’s mountainous farmland is beginning to yield results, and Swiss and Korean officials are testing a bank credit program for the farmers in the Asian country, a Swiss aid office said on Sunday.

North Korea is showing “many promising signs of changes in progress,” including the emergence of consumer markets that are now established as part of the country’s economic system, Adrian Schlapfer, assistant director-general of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), said on the agency’s Web site.

Schlapfer was comparing the current situation to that during his previous visit to Pyongyang four years ago.

“The farming land in which the starving people started to work back then is now recognized as providing scope for agricultural initiative,” he wrote.

“The SDC, together with North Korea’s Central Bank, is therefore in the process of testing a micro-credit program to encourage farmers to base their investment decisions on economic feasibility considerations — an innovation for North Korea,” he said.

But North Korea still suffers from food scarcity, and aid is still essential, he said.

The SDC, an agency of the Swiss Foreign Ministry, has maintained an office in Pyongyang since 1997, focusing on agricultural programs to improve food production and on supporting domestic reform. The Swiss government started providing humanitarian assistance to North Korea in 1995.

Schlapfer described North Korea as the most little-known and enigmatic partner of the SDC, and acknowledged there are constant doubts on whether Swiss engagement there will yield results.

“Are there any meaningful approaches for long-term development partnership in this country with its planned economy, backwardness and secretiveness? Given the context, is it at all possible to initiate change?” he asked.

Pyongyang is “not an easy partner,” he said. “The key values, priorities and methods of Switzerland’s development cooperation have to be repeatedly insisted upon.”

“However, the projects implemented over the past 12 years are encouraging,” Schlapfer added.

Science Magazine
Vol. 316. no. 5822, p. 183
DOI: 10.1126/science.316.5822.183
Richard Stone
4/13/2007

In a dramatic new sign that North Korea is emerging from isolation, the country’s first international university has announced plans to open its doors in Pyongyang this fall.

Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST) will train select North Korean graduate students in a handful of hard-science disciplines, including computer science and engineering. In addition, founders said last week, the campus will anchor a Silicon Valley-like “industrial cluster” intended to generate jobs and revenue.

One of PUST’s central missions is to train future North Korean elite. Another is evangelism. “While the skills to be taught are technical in nature, the spirit underlying this historic venture is unabashedly Christian,” its founding president, Chin Kyung Kim, notes on the university’s Web site (www.pust.net).

The nascent university is getting a warm reception from scientists involved in efforts to engage the Hermit Kingdom. “PUST is a great experiment for North-South relations,” says Dae-Hyun Chung, a physicist who retired from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and now works with Roots of Peace, a California nonprofit that aims to remove landmines from Korea’s demilitarized zone. To Chung, a Christian university is fitting: A century ago, Christianity was so vibrant in northern Korea, he says, that missionaries called Pyongyang “the Jerusalem of the East.”

The idea for PUST came in a surprise overture from North Korea in 2000, a few months after a landmark North-South summit. A decade earlier, Kim had established China’s first foreign university: Yanbian University of Science and Technology, in Yanji, the capital of an autonomous Korean enclave in China’s Jilin Province, just over the border from North Korea. In March 2001, the North Korean government authorized Kim and his backer, the nonprofit Northeast Asia Foundation for Education and Culture (NAFEC), headquartered in Seoul, to establish PUST in southern Pyongyang. It also granted NAFEC the right to appoint Kim as PUST president and hire faculty of any nationality, as well as a contract to use the land for 50 years.

NAFEC broke ground in June 2002 on a 1-million-square-meter plot that had belonged to the People’s Army in Pyongyang’s Nak Lak district, on the bank of the Taedong River. Construction began in earnest in April 2004. That summer, workers–a few of the 800 young soldiers on loan to the project–unearthed part of a bell tower belonging to a 19th century church dedicated to Robert Jermain Thomas, a Welsh Protestant missionary killed aboard his ship on the Taedong in 1866.

NAFEC’s fundraising faltered, however, and construction halted in fall 2004. The group intensified its Monday evening prayers and broadened its money hunt, getting critical assistance from a U.S. ally: the former president of Rice University, Malcolm Gillis, a well-connected friend of the elder George Bush and one of three co-chairs of a committee overseeing PUST’s establishment. “He made a huge difference,” says Chan-Mo Park, president of Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), another co-chair. South Korea’s unification ministry also quietly handed PUST a $1 million grant–more than it has awarded to any other North-South science cooperation project. This helped the school complete its initial $20 million construction push.

At the outset, PUST will offer master’s and Ph.D. programs in areas including computing, electronics, and agricultural engineering, as well as an MBA program. North Korea’s education ministry will propose qualified students, from which PUST will handpick the inaugural class of 150. It is now seeking 45 faculty members. Gillis and other supporters are continuing to stump for a targeted $150 million endowment to cover PUST operations, which in the first year will cost $4 million. Undergraduate programs will be added later, officials say. PUST, at full strength, aims to have 250 faculty members, 600 grad students, and 2000 undergrads.

PUST hopes to establish research links and exchanges with North Korea’s top institutions and with universities abroad. “It is a very positive sign,” says Stuart Thorson, a political scientist at Syracuse University in New York who leads a computer science collaboration between Syracuse and Kimchaek University of Technology in Pyongyang. “Key to success will be achieving on-the-ground involvement of international faculty in PUST’s teaching and research.”

Some observers remain cautious, suggesting that the North Korean military could use the project to acquire weapons technology or might simply commandeer the campus after completion. A more probable risk is that trouble in the ongoing nuclear talks could cause delays. At the moment, however, signs are auspicious. Park, who plans to teach at PUST after his 4-year POSTECH term ends in August, visited Pyongyang last month as part of a PUST delegation. “The atmosphere was friendly,” he says. “The tension was gone.” The Monday prayer group continues, just in case.

Daily NK
4/14/2007
Park Hyun Min

Changes to the North Korean Cabinet Ministry, Kim Young Il elected as the new Prime Minister, Kim Young Choon as Vice-Chairman of the National Defense Commission

At the 5th round of the 11th Supreme People’s Assembly announced on the 5th, the change in economic policies that would in future concentrate on the people’s livelihood and suspend the advancement of technological skills.

In the report, the deputy Prime Minister revealed that the major economic task for the upcoming year included light industries and agriculture, which had already been completed, and the improvement of the people’s livelihood. He said that the issue of social economic management had been discussed and that it would be resolved “our way.”

The 2007 report by the Supreme People’s Assembly proposed to, i) improve the basic standards of living in relation to agriculture and light industries, ii) enhance the manufacture of potential energy starting with the prioritizing the department into 4 divisions, iii) modernization of public economy and iv) manage sosicalistic economy through the our own.

Furthermore, foreign collaboration was proposed to further investments into advanced technology. In relation, the third phase proposal was made over a 5 year period (`08~`12) to improve technological skills such as the advancement of basic skills, high technology and software.

In contrast to last year, North Korea estimated an increase in revenue at 433.2bn won ($30.9bn, $1=141won). Last year, 5.9% were considered the public revenue, whereas this year, this figure was raised to 7.1%.

As for tax resources, national business gains tax was increased to 6.4%, cooperative organizations fund set at 4.5%, depreciation amount 9.6%, real estate fees 15.4%, and social welfare tax at 15.1%

Regarding expenses, science-technological skills among people’s economic expense increased to 60.3%, net business income is estimated to be 2% which will aid new measures to develop enterprise skills. In addition, proposals were made to increase agricultural expenses to 8.5%, light industries to 16.8%, energy, coal, metalwork and railroad to 11.9%

In relation to this, a South Korean governmental official revealed, “At this Supreme People’s Assembly, economic improvement proposal was mainly revealed without any announcement on foreign policies or sort of legislation of reform or openness.

Since last year, there have been rumors that a change in government would occur amidst the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly. While Park Bong Joo stepped down from his position, Kim Young Il, formally in charge of transportation was elected as the new prime minister. It has been three and half years since Park Bong Joo first took his prime ministerial post at the first round of the 11th Supreme People’s Assembly in September 2003.

Former Prime Minister Park is known to have ceased his duties since last year June. He has been suspected of transferring money from the agriculture’s oil funds. At the 20th High Level Cabinet Talks in Pyongyang in February, a South Korean representative did mention that Prime Minister Park had made a welcoming speech. However, it seems that he has been ousted from his position.

Additionally, with the death of Yeon Hyung Mook in October 2005, Kim Young Choon is known to have succeeded the position of Vice Chairman as well as taking on the role of military counselor.

Regarding, the new appointments, a governmental official said that the Cabinet’s Prime Minster, Kim Young Il would aim to solve the economic issue while Kim Young Choon as the new Vice Chairman would aim to organize the structure of the ministry and strengthen the military.

While Kim Jong Il did not attend the last round of meetings, the fact that he participated in the recent meeting has also gathered much interest.

Choson Ilbo
4/12/2007

Last year a Chinese company took a 51-percent stake in Hyesan Youth Cooper Mine in Yanggang Province, North Korea. Hebei-based Luanhe Industrial Group now has the right to develop the mine for the next 15 years.

North Korea also sold a 50-year development claim to the Musan iron mines, Asia’s largest open-air mine, to China’s Tonghua Iron & Steel Group. Since 2006, North Korea has sold the rights to develop more than 10 mines to Chinese firms.

KDB Research Institute, an affiliate of Korea Development Bank, has raised concerns with a report released Wednesday that details China’s intensive investment in North Korean natural resources. According to the report, since 2002 China has invested US$13 million (US$1=W932), more than 70 percent of its total investment in North Korea, in iron, copper and molybdenum mines.

The major investors come from the three northeast provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning. They have moved the focus of their investment from small-scale, commercial opportunities to strategic deals to secure energy resources, the report said.

According to the report, China’s Wukang Group bought the rights to dig the Yongdeung mine, North Korea’s largest hard coal mine, and another Chinese company invested in a North Korean project to develop an oil field in the West Sea. The North has also allowed Chinese fishermen to fish off the coast of Wonsan, a North Korean port city on the east coast, in return for 25 percent of the catch.

Since North Korea lacks funds while China suffers from a shortage of natural resources the two are forming joint development projects, said KDB Research Institute researcher Chung Eui-jun, the writer of the report.

Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, said in the Wall Street Journal last July that the Chinese government seems to have made a strategic decision to encourage Chinese firms to invest in North Korea as a way to maintain its influence with its long-time ally in the post-Kim Jong-il era.

Korea Times
Lee Jin-woo
4/12/2007
 
North Korea’s legislature on Wednesday elected Transport Minister Kim Yong-il as the country’s new premier, the North’s state-controlled news agency reported.

He replaces Pak Pong-ju who has been accused of embezzling some of the national budget, the report said.

According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim was elected as the new premier in a plenary session of the North’s Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), a rubber-stamp legislature of the Stalinist state.

Kim, 62, rose to his position after starting his bureaucratic career as a rank-and-filer in the Ministry of Land and Marine Transport. He is known to have expert knowledge in economic affairs.

He accompanied North Korean leader Kim Jong-il twice in 2005 on trips to government facilities, and led a delegation of ministry officials to China, Cuba and Syria over the last seven years. He visited Syria in 2005 to conclude a maritime transport agreement.

After graduating from Rajin University of Marine Transport, he served in the military for nine years beginning in 1961. He has served in the minister post for more than 10 years since the early 1990s.

The SPA also tapped Kim Yong-chun, chief of general staff of the Korean People’s Army, as the vice chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC), a position that has been vacant since the death of Yon Hyong-muk in October 2005.

The SPA, which convenes once or twice a year at irregular intervals, is headed by Kim Yong-nam, the official president of the Presidium of the SPA. He also serves as the titular head of the communist state.

Yonhap
4/12/2007

Saddled with a severe food shortage problem, North Korea is poised to raise people’s standard of living this year by concentrating on agriculture and light industry.

In a session of its parliament held on Wednesday, North Korea said its major economic goal is “to improve the living standards of people on the basis of the existing foundations of agriculture and light industry.”

In a related move, the North replaced Prime Minister Pak Pong-ju, the control tower of its economy. It named Transport Minister Kim Yong-il as its new premier. Pak is believed to have been in conflict with senior North Korean officials over electricity supplies.

“Kim is in his early 60s, relatively young for North Korean cabinet members, and he has no prestigious political or educational background. He seems to be credited by his track record of economic expertise and achievement,” a senior Unification Ministry said, asking to remain anonymous.

The impoverished country has depended on international handouts to feed a large number of its 23 million people.

In a recent meeting with U.N. World Food Program officials, a North Korean vice agriculture minister acknowledged that the communist country has a shortfall of about 1 million tons of food and called for aid from the outside world.

“The cabinet will concentrate state efforts on agriculture this year, too, considering it as a mainstay, to thoroughly implement the WPK’s policy of agricultural revolution and make a signal advance in the efforts to settle the people’s problem of food,” Vice Premier Kwak Pom-gi said in a report to the delegates at the session. WPK is the acronym for the North’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

To that end, North Korea plans to raise spending on agriculture by 8.5 percent and on light industry by 16.8 percent compared with last year.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il also attended the meeting of the parliament, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

The North is officially headed by its titular leader Kim Yong-nam, the president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the country’s parliament.

But Kim Jong-il rules the country with an iron grip. He is officially the chairman of the National Defense Commission and general secretary of the ruling Workers’ Party. He reserves the office of president for his late father as a way of showing filial piety.

The North also said it will kick off a drive to modernize major light industrial factories and reinforce the production of daily necessities, while state efforts will be channeled into the construction of houses in major cities, the KCNA said.

The North earmarked 40.8 percent of the total budget expenditure for the national economy this year, and in particular, spending on the development of science and technology will rise as much as 60.3 percent compared with last year.

Based on the report from the North’s parliament, South Korea’s Unification Ministry estimated the North’s 2007 budget at US$3.09 billion, up 5.9 percent from a year earlier.

Korea Herald
4/12/2007

The Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s legislature, elected Transport Minister Kim Yong-il as the country’s new premier, replacing Pak Pong-ju, at its fifth plenary session held on Wednesday, Yonhap News Agency quoted a state-run North Korean news agency as reporting.

The SPA also elected Kim Yong-chun, chief of general staff of the Korean People’s Army, as the vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, a position which has been vacant since death of Yon Hyong-muk in October 2005, the Korean Central News Agency said. Kim Jong-il is the NSC chairman, and the NDC has two vice chairmen.

The 62-year-old new premier has served as the land and maritime transport minister since 1994. He visited Syria in 2005 to conclude a maritime transport agreement.

The SPA convenes once or twice a year at irregular intervals. The SPA is headed by Kim Yong-nam, the official president of the Presidium of the SPA. He also serves as the titular head of the communist state.

Yonhap
4/10/2007

North Korean authorities have scaled back their country’s food rationing system and allowed rice to be bought and sold at open markets in major cities, sources here said Tuesday.

In July 2002, the communist country reduced food rationing and introduced an economic reform program under which wages were raised and farmers’ markets were expanded so that people could buy food. But the policy has zigzagged on the purchase and sale of cereals and rice. 

“Since last year, rumors have spread about the sale at state-run stores as the food rationing system did not function well. Currently, not only corn but also rice is being traded at the markets,” a government source said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The source added that North Korean authorities permitted the sale of imported rice at state-run stores. “The authorities hope to clamp down on high rice prices at black markets by diversifying the sources of rice distribution,” the source said. On the North’s black market, the product costs about 20 times more than rice at state-run stores.