North Korean Economy Watch

The Korea Development Institute (KDI)  recently published a report titled “5.24 조치 이후 남북교역과 북중무역의 변화: 데이터와 시사점”. The Daily NK translates this title to “Inter-Korean Trade and Changes in North Korea-China Trade after the May 24th Measure”. This report is part of KDI’s monthly series “KDI North Korea Economic Review” (KDI 북한경제리뷰) which you can check out on their web page.

You can download a PDF of this report here (PDF).

Here is what the Daily NK had to say about the report:

North Korea-China trade volumes have been increasing dramatically in the period 2009-2011, something which South Korean analysts tend to cite as a side-effect of the May 24th Measure.

The Korea Development Institute (KDI), in its recently released analysis, ‘Inter-Korean Trade and Changes in North Korea-China Trade after the May 24th Measure’, asserted, “North Korea-China trade in 2010 increased 29% (to $3.5billion) over the previous year. In 2011 the recorded amount was $5.6 billion, 63% more than the previous year.”

“Trade volumes have been going up drastically due to the 2010 May 24th Measure, and most of that trade has been North Korean exports to China,” it went on. “After the May 24th measure in 2010, North Korea’s exports to China increased 50% ($1.2 billion) compared to 2009. And in 2011 an increase of 107% ($2.5 billion) was recorded over 2010.”

In addition, “North Korea’s 2010 exports to China rose 21% compared to 2009, and in 2011 rose 39% compared to 2010. As North Korea’s exports to China led North Korea-China trade in 2010, North Korea’s trade deficit with China is also now declining.”

In 2001, North Korean exports to China were worth a mere $166 million, while imports weighed in with $570 million. In 2011, the last year on record, exports were worth $2.4 billion and imports $3.1 billion.

I cannot really comment on the story since my Korean is not good enough to read the report.

Read the full story here:
Trade Volumes Blamed on May 24th
Daily NK
Mok Yong Jae
2012-5-29

According to the Hankyoreh:

South Korean businesses have suffered losses of up to ten trillion won (US$8.3 billion) from the cutbacks in inter-Korean economic cooperation under the Lee Myung-bak administration, figures show.

The losses taken by South Korean firms are fives times the 1.8 trillion won (US$1.7 billion) North Korea’s estimated losses. The results show an unintended effect of Seoul’s May 24 sanctions, which were meant to punish North Korea economically for the shooting death of a tourist at the Mt. Kumkang resort, the sinking of the Cheonan warship, and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. North Korea has offset these losses with increased cooperation with China.

Read more below…

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According to the Daily NK:

The popularity of South Korean culture is so high in North Korea that dramas aired on one day in the South are being made into DVDs in northeastern China the next and, by the third day, are cropping up on the fringes of North Korean markets. The North Korean people are then watching these dramas over and over again, sharing them with close friends and swapping them for others with trusted confidantes. In the process, the fashions worn by the stars of these dramas become objects of considerable envy.

It is thus inevitable that South Korean clothes would be popular among the North Korean people more generally. As a Yangkang Province source told the Daily NK recently, “Even households that are not doing that well are going out in South Korean clothes, while the demand for Chinese goods is more limited.”

In particular, the source went on, “Since the start of this year, there have been noticeably more people selling South Korean clothes in the markets, because that is what people want to buy.” Prices reflect this, the source said; for example, South Korean t-shirts sell for nearly double the price of the Chinese equivalent.

Despite the fact that selling South Korean products is deemed treasonous by the North Korean authorities, the practice continues. People refer to the illicit clothes in creative ways to avoid official censure; for instance, ‘Clothes with no label’ or ‘Clothes from the house below’. And indeed the clothes do not have labels, because they are removed in order to get through customs on the Sino-North Korean border.

According to the source, “People believe that Chinese clothes are not good enough, to the extent that they need some additional needlework before they can even be worn. South Korean clothes are the opposite; good design and good quality. Even without the label, people know whether they are seeing a South Korean or Chinese item.”

This phenomenal demand for South Korean clothes first started when North Korean defectors began to send South Korean clothes through smugglers to family. One such defector recently received orders from her family back in North Korea, namely “send as many South Korean clothes as you can because I can sell them all in the market.”

“She used to tell me not to send anything that might get her in trouble,” the source recalled. “Nothing tight-fitting, bright colored, revealing or with English letters on. But that is not the case anymore.”

▲ South Korea seizing the ‘hanbok’ market

The preference for South Korean clothes not only refers to daily wear, it also extends to North Korea’s traditional ‘hanbok’. Cha Kwang Ok, a woman of 40 who recently defected said, “Last year I went to my cousin’s house in Pyongyang and saw people in the city wearing hanbok, but they looked different to the ones they usually wear in Chosun. I thought to myself at the time, ‘Pyongyang’s economy has really developed’; they were the South Korean style hanbok.”

North Korea’s traditional hanbok jacket has a narrow ‘dongjeong’ (thin white cloth-covered paper collar) and is of a single color. It features embroidered flowers, and there are only two different styles. In contrast, South Korean hanbok, as worn by queens in the many, many historical dramas produced by South Korean broadcasters, have a wider dongjeong and are of multiple colors.

Han Yong Kwon, age 46 and originally from Pyongyang, defected to South Korea in 2011. In her estimation, “Even as late as 2010 I could not see women wearing South Korean-style hanbok in Pyongyang, so seeing them appearing now in the so-called ‘Capital of the Revolution’ is evidence that the ‘Korean Wave’ is spreading rapidly in North Korea.”

Additional evidence for the same can even be found in the Chosun Art Film Studio-published 2012 calendar, wherein there is a picture of a model wearing the same hanbok as South Korean actress Lee Young Ae wore in the 2003 drama ‘The Great Jang Geum’, showing that even North Korean state entities no longer seem to regard the colorful hanbok as particularly South Korean.

Read the full story here:
South Korea Seizing Clothing Market
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
2012-5-21

According to the AP (via Washington Post):

Myanmar’s president has confirmed that his country bought weapons from North Korea during the past 20 years and assured his South Korean counterpart that it will no longer do so.

In a meeting with visiting South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Myanmar President Thein Sein said his country never had nuclear cooperation with North Korea but did have deals for conventional weapons, Lee’s presidential Blue House said in an announcement Tuesday.

Thein Sein told Lee that Myanmar will no longer buy weapons from North Korea, honoring a U.N. ban, South Korean presidential official Kim Tae-hyo told reporters traveling with Lee, according to Blue House officials in Seoul.

Lee is on an official visit to Myanmar, the first by a South Korean president since North Korean commandos staged a bloody 1983 attack on visiting South Korean dignitaries.

Myanmar cut off diplomatic relations with North Korea after the attack, but restored them in 2007 as it sought allies in the face of international sanctions over its human rights record and failure to install a democratic government. Myanmar also began buying weapons from North Korea, and was suspected of obtaining nuclear weapons technology as well.

Myanmar is taking steps to emerge from international isolation after decades of military rule ended last year. Those changes were highlighted Tuesday when Lee met opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was held for years under house arrest but is now a member of Parliament.

Suu Kyi said after the 45-minute meeting that South Korea and Myanmar have much in common in having had to “take the hard road to democratic leadership.”

Lee, speaking through an interpreter, said he and Suu Kyi had agreed that “democracy, human rights and freedom must never be sacrificed because of development.”

He said he had praised Thein Sein’s contribution to democratization when he met the Myanmar president on Monday.

He also said he told Thein Sein that he hoped his government “will refrain from any activities” with North Korea that could be considered in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. He described this as a formal request.

A U.N. resolution bars countries from obtaining all but small arms and light weapons from North Korea.

Lee on Tuesday made a brief visit to the site of the 1983 bombing, Martyr’s Mausoleum, a monument to Suu Kyi’s father, Myanmar independence hero Gen. Aung San. The attack left 21 dead, 17 of them South Korean, but failed to kill its target, then-President Chun Doo-hwan, who arrived late and was not harmed.

A statement from Lee’s office said he also agreed to expand South Korean financial assistance to Myanmar.

It said South Korea agreed to help Myanmar develop human resources, build a think tank and invite Myanmar students to South Korea in an effort to share its successful experience in economic development.

Previous posts involving Myanmar here. Recent highlights include the M/V Light Saga and articles by Bertil Linter.

Read the full story here:
South Korea says Myanmar has promised to stop buying arms from North Korea
AP via Washington Post
2012-5-15

According to Yonhap:

Despite rising cross-border tension, the trade between South and North Korea surged 36 percent from a year ago to US$320 million in the first two months of this year, government data showed on March 16.

The data provided by the Korea Customs Service indicated that the trade via the inter-Korean industrial complex has not been affected by tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea slapped sanctions on the North in May 2010 in retaliation for the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship earlier that year, though it keeps intact the complex in the North’s western border city of Kaesong.

The complex, a key outcome of the inter-Korean summit in 2000, marries South Korean capital and technology with cheap labor from the North. It is now home to more than 120 South Korean small and medium-sized companies.

Tensions have flared anew in recent weeks as the two Koreas traded militaristic rhetoric against each other over Seoul’s defamation of the dignity of North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un and his late father, former leader Kim Jong-il.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean Trade Surges 36 Percent This Year
North Korea Newsletter No. 202 (March 22, 2012)
Yonhap

Following the US – DPRK nuclear / food deal announced at the end of February, the DPRK has decided to reject humanitarian assistance from private South Korean organizations. According to Yonhap:

North Korea has apparently decided not to accept humanitarian aid by South Korea’s private relief agencies that comes with monitoring, aid officials here said Monday.

North Korea has said it will only accept “pure” humanitarian aid from South Korea, in an apparent rejection of aid with strings attached, an aide official said of his recent contact with his North Korean counterpart.

Another South Korean private aid official also made a similar comment. The two spoke on condition of anonymity, citing policy.

The North’s move came as North Korean and U.S. officials held talks in Beijing last week to work out details of 240,000 tons of U.S. food aid reached in their recent nuclear deal.

South Korea has called for monitoring of its food aid to the North to ensure that the aid reaches its intended beneficiaries in the isolated country.

…

In November, North Korea allowed a South Korean official to travel to the North for a rare monitoring of flour aid by a South Korean private organization.

Last year, South Korean civic groups donated nearly 3,000 tons of flour to North Korea and some of the civic groups sent monitors to the North to try to ensure the transparency of the distribution of their food aid.

Despite the North’s alleged rejection of aid with strings attached, a private aid official said his group plans to send food aid to the North this year.

“We plan to conduct monitoring in an appropriate manner through consultations with North Korea,” the official said. He asked not to be identified, citing policy.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea said to reject S. Korean food aid with strings attached
Yonhap
2012-3-12

According to the Donga Ilbo:

The South Korean government will allow companies operating in the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea to bring new facilities or build plants there. Against this background, regulations banning new investment in the complex under a sanction against North Korea, which made May 24 last year, will be massively eased.

Park Soo-jin, vice spokeswoman of the Unification Ministry in Seoul, said Wednesday, “We will ease sanctions on North Korea imposed May 24 last year to support the operations of plants operating (in the Kaesong complex), including allowing the entry of necessary facilities and construction of warehouses.” “We will also actively examine working-level talks with Pyongyang to resolve the issue of supply of North Korean workers. We are willing to negotiate with the North on building dormitories and tackling passage, customs and telecommunications matters and personal safety.” The ministry is also mulling putting artificial grass on a soccer field within the complex to improve living conditions of South Korean staff.

The latest decision is a follow-up measure after members of the special parliamentary committee for inter-Korean relations development and the National Assembly`s Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee visited the Kaesong complex Friday and urged the resolution of difficulties facing companies operating there. Having offered Tuesday working-level talks to Pyongyang for family reunions, Seoul apparently hopes to expand amicable relations through this deregulation.

The Unification Ministry said last year`s sanctions will remain in force since expansion of large-scale investments will still be banned, including new corporate advances into the complex and plant construction. The latest measure, however, is still a big step forward because until now, Seoul had approved just facility entry into the complex for repair purposes, while going forward, additional facilities could be allowed for production activities. Plant construction was initially allowed for seven companies, which had been suspended due to last year’s sanctions.

Certain projects are already in place, including the construction of fire stations and emergency medical facilities, as well as repair of roads for commuting by North Korean workers. The South Korean ban on visiting North Korea excluding the Kaesong complex and Mount Kumgang area, which was effected last year, was also eased following approval of trips to North Korea for social and cultural exchanges, including the recovery of Kaesong Manwol pavilion.

Read the full story here:
Seoul to partially lift restrictions on biz complex in N. Korea
Donga Ilbo
2012-2-16

Chico Harlan writes in the Washington Post:

Recent North Korean defectors in South Korea sometimes joke that their transition to capitalist life begins with two key steps. First, they buy a smart phone. Then, they get a lesson about phone banking.

With those two things, defectors can then transfer money back to North Korea, where many still have family or friends. The money doesn’t go directly to the North; rather, it’s channeled through a series of brokers, routed through China, and trimmed by handling fees and commissions.

But as underground systems go, this one is quite functional. Some 50 percent of North Korean defectors have transferred money back home. Those who try once almost always do it again.

Just a decade ago, almost no money flowed back to the North in the form of remittances. But the number of defectors here has skyrocketed, and the amount of cash they send back home has surged as well.

Some 23,000 defectors now live in South Korea, with the number jumping more then 2,500 every year. (Just 12 years ago, a total of 1,400 North Koreans lived in the South.)

The defectors don’t make much money — about $1,000 per month on average — but that doesn’t stop them from sharing it generously, shipping it back to a country where $1,000 can feed a family for a year.

According to a January 2011 survey from the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights, some 56 percent of defectors who send money give more than $900 (1.01 million won) annually. Another 12.5 percent give more than $4,500 (5.01 million won) annually.

North Korea scholar Andrei Lankov, in this April 2011 essay, estimated that the total money given each years totals $10 million–an enormous influx of cash into the extremely impoverished North.

One recent defector, Ju Kyeong-bae, described during a recent interview at his apartment in Seoul how he transfers money to his friends in the North, who live in a village some 25 miles from the Chinese border.

First, one of his friends — let’s call him Mr. Jeong — calls Ju from North Korea, using a Chinese cell phone that gets a signal from towers just beyond the border.

Mr. Jeong provides a telephone number for a broker in China. Ju calls the broker.

The broker then gives Ju the name of a bank in South Korea, along with a particular account number.

Ju determines the amount of money he wants to send, punches a few buttons on his iPhone, and transfers the money, which then pinballs from the South Korean bank to a Chinese bank, using two brokers.

The Chinese bank account belongs to a businessman (let’s call him Mr. Kim) who does frequent work in North Korea — and who holds lots of private wealth stashed away in the North. When Ju’s money lands in Mr. Kim’s account, Kim just lets it sit there. He never withdraws it and takes it across the border. Rather, he distributes money he already has stashed in North Korea to Mr. Jeong, who in turn gets it to the person Ju’s payment is intended for.

Mr. Jeong then places another call to Ju — a confirmation.

“Some of the middle men, I never even know their names,” Ju said. “It’s all based on trust. If you don’t trust the system, you’re better off not even sending money.”

According to the 2011 survey of defectors, the commission on transfers is generally between 21 and 30 percent. It’s almost never higher than 50 percent. Some 90 percent of defectors say they receive a phone call from their friend or family member confirming that they received the payment.

One of every two defectors thinks his or her money transfers will spark admiration toward the South. About one in every 10 thinks the money will raise resistance against North Korean society.

South Korea technically bans the transfers, but an official at Seoul’s Ministry of Unification, which handles North Korea policy, says that the government has little incentive to stop the remittances.

“They fall into a gray area,” said the official, requesting anonymity because he was unauthorized to speak about the policy on record. “We always say no money should be sent to North Korea in case it is diverted for military purposes. But in this case, we’re not talking about huge amounts. And it’s for humanitarian purposes. So long as that’s the case, we won’t pursue it.”

Additional posts on remittances:

1. ROK moves to control inter-Korean remittances (2011-5-26)

2. ROK seeks to gain greater control of sanctioned cash flows to DPRK (2011-05-25)

3. Remittances from North Korean defectors (2011-4-21)

4. Defectors remit US$10m a year to DPRK (2011-2-23)

Read the full story here:
North Korean defectors learn quickly how to send money back home
Washington Post
Chico Harlan
2012-2-15

Pictured Above (Google Earth): The Hwanggumphyong and Wiwha Island SEZ on the Yalu/Amnok River which separates the DPRK and PRC.

On Friday, the Donga Ilbo reported that Daewoo Shipbuilding was going to invest in the DPRK’s Hwanggumphyong SEZ (see the original post below).  Today the report appears to be incorrect. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. on Monday shot down news reports that it had agreed to build a shipyard in North Korea.

“We don’t have any plans to do that,” a spokesman said.

According to some South Korean news accounts over the weekend, the company, which is the world’s second-largest builder of ships and whose controlling stake is owned by the South Korean government, had agreed to help a Chinese company develop an island off North Korea’s northwest coast, near the Chinese city of Dandong.

The DSME spokesman said the company held discussions with the Chinese company but isn’t close to an agreement.

The news accounts said DSME would build a shipyard that would be devoted to repair work. One report said the idea would be presented to DSME’s directors and announced in April.

The company spokesman said it’s unclear how the accounts originated.

See the original report bleow:

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Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2012-2-8

As of January 2012, the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) employs over 50,000 North Korean workers.

South Korea’s Ministry of Unification (MOU) reported that North Korea sent 449 additional workers to the complex last month, bringing the total number of North Korean employees at the KIC to 50,315.

The majority of the workers are women, comprising 72 percent of the total employees. A total of 81.8 percent are high school graduates, while 9.5 percent are college graduates and 8.7 percent are graduates from specialized/professional schools.

The KIC has had a low worker turnover rate. Some of the workers are licensed doctors and nurses, signifying the popularity of employment at the complex.

However, the MOU added that, “in order to meet the demands of the South Korean corporations in the KIC, 20,000 more workers are needed.”

Currently the average monthly wage of the workers is 110 USD, which is paid directly to the North Korean authorities in US dollars by the South Korean companies.

Out of the total wage, 45 percent is deducted and collected by the North Korean government as social security (15 percent) and social cultural policy funds (30 percent). The North Korean workers receive 55 percent of the total wage, which is paid either in coupons or North Korean currency.

Since the KIC’s opening in 2004, the total amount paid to the KIC workers reached 193.58 million USD as of November 2011.

Despite the deadlocked relations between the two Koreas, the number of employees, along with production and number of businesses, has steadily increased.

The number of employees in 2007 was 23,529. Thus the number has increased to over 50,000 in just four years, and the yearly production output has risen from 180 million to 400 million USD.

Cumulative production also increased from 310 million USD in March 2008 to 1.19 billion USD as of last year. During this time, 55 additional South Korean companies joined the KIC.

Yearly export output jumped from 870,000 USD in 2005 to 36.87 million USD in 2011. However, this is a drop from the previous year’s export of 39.67 million USD. Cumulative export as of November 2011 was 190 million USD.

In the assessment of the MOU, “the decrease in export reflects buyer’s anxiety from instability in inter-Korean relations and North Korean military provocations and many of the manufactured goods were sold domestically in South Korea.”

In addition, the issue of KIC-made products to be granted a “made in Korea” label is still under debate. According to an undisclosed MOU source, “This July will mark the one year anniversary of the ROK-EU FTA and the Committee on Outward Processing Zones (OPZ) is scheduled to meet to discuss the matter of KIC’s recognition as OPZ. But it will not be an easy game to win.”

UPDATE:  The Hankyoreh also wrote about the Kaesong Zone’s growth.