North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
7/2/2007

South Korea said Monday it will provide US$20 million worth emergency food aid to North Korea through the U.N. World Food Program.

The latest South Korean Korean food aid to North Korea through the Rome-based U.N. agency is separate from 400,000 tons of rice it plans to ship to its communist neighbor in the coming months, the Unification Ministry said.

The list and amounts of the South Korean aid, fixed after consultations with the WFP, includes 12,000 tons of corn, 12,000 tons of bean, 5,000 tons of wheat, 2,000 tons of flour and 1,000 tons of powdered milk, the ministry said in a statement.

“We will make efforts to facilitate food aid to North Korea via WFP and improve efficiency through assessment,” it said.

It is the first time since 2004 that South Korea has decided to provide food aid to the North via the WFP. International tension over the North’s nuclear has discouraged South Korea and other countries to help the North.

South Korea resumed shipment of fertilizer and other emergency aid to the North in March. In late June, it sent 10,500 tons of rice to the North as part of its promise last year to help the North recover from flood damage.

South Korea suspended all types of food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after the North conducted missile tests in July and a nuclear bomb test in October. But in high-level talks in March, the two sides agreed to put all inter-Korean projects back on track.

Inter-Korean relations have gotten a new boost from North Korean moves to honor its side of a Feb.13 six-party agreement to denuclearize itself. Last week, it invited back U.N. nuclear inspectors to discuss measures to monitor its planned shutdown of its weapons-related nuclear facilities.

A weak harvest in 2006, disastrous flooding and a 75 percent fall in donor assistance have combined to deal a severe blow to the North’s chronic food shortages, WFP officials said.

According to outside analysts, North Korea’s food supplies may fall one third of its needs this year if South Korea and other countries withhold aid.

Data from the WFP and South Korea’s Unification Ministry show that the North will need between 5.24 million tons and 6.47 million tons of food this year. Depending on the weather, the availability of fertilizer and other factors, the country may only be able to produce 4.3 million tons of food by itself in 2007, the report said.

Joong Ang Daily
6/23/2007

In a landmark ruling, a court in Seoul yesterday cleared the way for North Korean defectors who left spouses in their communist homeland to remarry in the South.

The Seoul Family Court accepted requests by 13 defectors to divorce their spouses in North Korea.

Married North Korean defectors have so far been legally barred from remarrying in South Korea because they are already married in the North.

Under a new law on the protection of North Korea defectors revised in January, people who have obtained South Korean citizenship after defection now can file for divorce “if it is unclear whether their spouse lives in the South.”

The test case is the first of 429 lawsuits that have been lodged with the same court on the issue since 2003.

Judge Lee Heon-yeong said North Koreans have a legitimate reason for being unable to continue marriages formed in North Korea, since the current inter-Korean division is unlikely to change in the near future.

The ruling is expected to speed up the process and to increase the number of similar applications.

The number of divorce suits has grown since March, 2003 as the defectors were required to report the name of their spouse for census registration.

Joong Ang Daily
Hwang Young-jin
6/19/2007

Trade volume between North and South Koreas has increased more than threefold since the historical June 15 Declaration in 2000.

With an average increase of 24.3 percent, annually, the total amount will reach $1.7 billion by the end of the year, according to the report on inter-Korean Trade from the Korea International Trade Association, also known as KITA.

Annual trade volume in 2000 was $425 million, which increased to $1.3 billion last year. Trade volume so far this year until May has already reached $563 million, which is a 31.3 percent increase year-on-year.

Besides the overall growth, what is healthy about the trade quality is that commercial trade accounts for almost 70 percent of the total trade. That figure was below 60 in 2000, according to the report. Non-commercial trade refers to aid including items such as rice, clothing and fuel. In other words, they are products that were sent to North Korea free of charge.

“The success of the Kaesong Industrial Complex is the biggest reason [for the rise],” said Roh Sung-ho, head of the Inter-Korean trade support team at KITA. “We are accepting bids for additional space at the Kaesong complex, and three times more companies bid than there are lots available.”

With more and more companies establishing factories in Kaesong, more material is exported from the South, and more manufactured goods return, said Roh.

The value of goods leaving South Korea was higher than the value of goods returning. However, about 30 percent of those goods were aid and were given free of charge. When that is taken into account, the North made more money from its exports to the South than the South made in exports to the North.

This allows the North to record a profit in trade account books.

“The nuclear incident last year, didn’t affect inter-Korean trade. There might be minor falls, but I expect trade volume between the two Koreas to increase for the time being,” Roh said.

Yonhap
6/14/2007

South Korea will take steps to send food aid worth some $20 million to North Korea at the request of a United Nations food agency, the country’s point man on the North said Thursday.

“This is totally different in nature from the provision of rice to the North in the form of a loan,” Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung said in a press briefing, conscious of mounting criticism of what it appears to be the government’s sudden about-face in food aid to the North.

South Korea will consult with the World Food Program (WFP) to determine the proposed list and amount of food aid items, which include 24,000 tons of corn, 12,000 tons of bean, 5,000 tons of wheat, 2,000 tons of flour and 1,000 tons of powdered milk, Lee said. It will be the first time since 2004 that South Korea will provide food aid to the North via the WFP.

South Korea resumed shipments of fertilizer and other emergency aid to the North in late March, but withheld the loan of 400,000 tons of rice as an inducement for North Korea to start its nuclear dismantlement under a landmark February 13 agreement.

Besides, the South also decided to send 10,500 tons of rice to the North soon as part of a promise made last year to help the North recover from flood damage, Lee said. “I think it is right to push for this in consideration of cooperation with the North,”

South Korea suspended all types of food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after the North conducted missile tests in July. Resumption of the aid was stymied due to the North’s nuclear bomb test in October, but the two sides agreed to put all inter-Korean projects back on track in early March. Emergency rice aid for flood relief has also been put on hold in tandem with the suspension of the rice loan.

A weak harvest in 2006, disastrous summer flooding and a 75 percent fall in donor assistance have dealt severe blows to the impoverished nation, according to WFP officials.

According to a recent think tank report, North Korea could run short of up to one third of the food it needs this year if South Korea and other countries withhold aid.

Data from the WFP and the Unification Ministry show that the North will need between 5.24 million tons and 6.47 million tons of food this year. Depending on the weather, the availability of fertilizer and other factors, the communist state may only be able to produce 4.3 million tons of food by itself, the report said.

Yonhap
6/11/2007

South Korea will complete shipments of 300,000 tons of fertilizer aid to North Korea late this month, the Unification Minister said Monday.

“As of last week, 233,800 tons of fertilizer had been shipped to North Korea. By June 20, the planned shipments will be completed,” said a ministry official on the usual condition of anonymity.

South Korea resumed shipments of fertilizer and other emergency aid to the North in late March, but it withheld rice aid as an inducement for North Korea to fulfill its promise to shut down its main nuclear reactor as part of the landmark February 13 agreement.

South Korea suspended its food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after the North conducted missile tests in July. Resumption of the aid was blocked due to the North’s nuclear bomb test in October.

According to a recent think tank report, North Korea could run short of up to one third of the food it needs this year if South Korea and other countries withhold aid.

Data from the World Food Program and the Unification Ministry show that the North will need between 5.24 million tons and 6.47 million tons of food this year. Depending on the weather, the availability of fertilizer and other factors, the communist state may only be able to produce 4.3 million tons of food by itself, the report said.

Yonhap
5/24/2007

South Korea has decided to put off food shipment to North Korea until the communist country fulfills its promise to shut down its main nuclear reactor, government sources said Thursday.

South Korea had planned to start sending 400,000 tons of rice to the impoverished North late this month in the form of a loan to be paid back over 30 years after a 10-year grace period.

In inter-Korean economic talks in April, however, South Korea made its food aid conditional on the North’s fulfillment of its obligation to start denuclearization steps in return for energy aid within 60 days of a Feb. 13 six-party deal.

The North failed to meet the April 14 deadline, citing a banking dispute with the United States over $25 million of its funds frozen at a Macau bank, Banco Delta Asia. In a separate deal, the North Korean money was unblocked but the communist country has yet to withdraw it.

Hoping that the banking dispute would have been resolved by the end of May, South Korea’s government last Tuesday approved budget spending for the rice aid worth $170 million and raw materials worth $80 million for the North to make soap, footwear and clothing.

“As we made clear in inter-Korean economic talks last month, however, we will wait and see if North Korea will carry out the Feb. 13 agreement,” a government official said, asking that he remain anonymous.

The South Korean government has yet to sign a commercial contract to purchase rice aid for North Korea, so it would be next to impossible to keep the inter-Korean agreement to start shipment in late May.

South Korean officials have expressed frustration over the prolonged financial dispute which was touched off by Washington’s accusations that North Korea laundered illicit money through the Macao bank.

North Korea has been free to withdraw the money but it reportedly insists that it gets it back through a U.S. bank. The U.S. government said last week that arrangements were being made to address the North Korean demand.

Korea Times
Kim Yon-se
5/17/2007

Senior officials of South Korea, North Korea and Russia will likely meet soon to discuss linking the Trans-Korean Railway (TKR) and the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), the chief executive of the Korea Railroad Corp. (KORAIL) said Thursday.

The three countries plan to hold a second round of talks for railway cooperation in Pyongyang in late June, said KORAIL President Lee Churl.

In a meeting with reporters in Munsan, north of Seoul, Lee said, “We’ve already reached an agreement with Russia and received a positive reply from the North.”

If the North accepts the proposal, Lee will meet his North Korean and Russian counterparts to discuss the matter on the basis of the first tripartite meeting in Russia in March 2006.

The connection of TKR and TSR, dubbed the “Iron Silk Road,” is expected to bring enormous economic benefits to the two Koreas and Russia.

Experts say it is expected to cut logistic costs as well as freight delivery times substantially.

First of all, inter-Korean projects including tours to Mt. Geumgang or Gaeseong, an ancient capital city in North Korea, will likely be activated .

Freight transportation fares between Incheon and Nampo in the North are expected to fall by 25 percent on average by utilizing the railway instead of ships.

It takes about 30 days and costs $2,213 for conveying 1 TEU (20-foot equivalent units) of freight between Busan and Moscow by ship. In comparison, it would take about 15 days and $1,822 if the railways were linked.

The Busan New Port has recently been designed to make Korea a logistics hub in Northeast Asia.

The port is likely to provide another advantage when the railroad among the two Koreas and Russia is connected.

It will become both the starting and ending point of the “Iron Silk Road,” crossing the Eurasian continent via the Trans-Siberian, Trans-Manchurian and Trans-China railways.

The port authority plans to build a logistics complex on a 1.2 million-square-meter lot in the northern container pier of the new port by 2008.

Joong Ang Daily
Lee Young-jong
5/15/2007

With a one-time test run of an inter-Korean railroad set this week, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification said yesterday it will create an organization designed solely to provide $80 million worth of raw materials to North Korea.

The South promised to provide the materials, for light industry, in return for security assurances over the inter-Korean train line.

South Korea hopes the line will be permanent, but North Korea has only agreed to one test run.

The new organization will be jointly operated by related South Korean government agencies, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Nam-sik said in a briefing yesterday. The agency will also represent South Korea in talks with the North over the joint development of a mine in North Korea.

The government is scheduled today to hold a meeting hosted by Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung to endorse a 2 billion won yearly budget for the organization, Kim said. The money will come from the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund.

“The fund the government will provide to the organization is a kind of commission for doing state affairs instead of the government,” Kim said.

Yonhap
5/23/2007
Koreas fail to agree on details for swapping of raw materials, resources

South and North Korea on Wednesday failed to settle remaining differences over how to boost cooperation in light industry and natural resource development, the Unification Ministry said.

“The two sides just agreed to continue to discuss details regarding the issue,” the ministry said in a statement. The ministry did not provide details about when they will meet again.

Working-level officials could not agree on the list and price of raw materials the South is to provide the North in exchange for the right to develop natural resources in the communist country.

The North called for more than the South has earmarked for the shipment on the last day of the two-day talks held in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, according to South Korean officials.

Last month, South Korea agreed that it will provide raw materials to the North in June to help revive its threadbare light industry in return for the North’s natural resources. The two Koreas reached a similar swapping agreement in 2005, but it has not been implemented due mainly to the North Korean nuclear dispute.

In the agreement, the rice shipment, which will consist of 150,000 tons of domestic rice and 250,000 tons of imported rice, will be sent to the North late this month in the form of a loan to be paid back over the next 30 years with a 10-year grace period. Seoul hopes to link it with Pyongyang’s promise to take initial steps toward nuclear disarmament.

Last Tuesday, the South Korean government endorsed the spending of funds needed to provide rice and raw materials for light industry to North Korea. The South’s planned shipment of 400,000 tons of rice is worth US$170 million, while the provision of raw materials for light industry is worth $80 million.

In 2005, South Korea agreed to offer raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals, such as zinc and magnesite, after mines were developed with South Korean investments guaranteed by Pyongyang.

But the economic accord was not implemented, as North Korea abruptly cancelled the scheduled test runs of inter-Korean railways in May last year, apparently under pressure from its powerful military.

Last Thursday, two trains crossed the Military Demarcation Line for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. But critics said the test run of two railways, one in the east and the other in the west, is not likely to lead to the formal opening of the railways or to rail services for a joint industrial complex in Kaesong or for tours of the North’s Mount Geumgang.

As part of efforts to accelerate the formal opening of the inter-Korean rail service, the South plans to sound out the possibility of providing raw materials via reconnected railways during the working-level dialogue or the upcoming ministerial talks.

Koreas hold talks on swapping of raw materials for light industry
Yonhap
5/22/2007

South and North Korea on Tuesday held talks to work out details for boosting cooperation in light industry and natural resource development, the Unification Ministry said.

The aim of the working-level dialogue, being held in the North Korean border city of Kaesong for two days until Wednesday, is to focus on procedures for the South’s shipment of raw materials to the North in exchange for the right to develop North Korea’s natural resources.

During the talks, South and North Korea are scheduled to exchange agreement documents, which will then take effect immediately since the two sides successfully conducted test runs of cross-border railways, a precondition for the implementation of the accord, government officials said.

The South also plans to sound out the possibility of providing the materials via reconnected railways in a prelude to the formal opening of the inter-Korean rail service, according to sources.

“We are studying various ways of speeding up the formal opening of the Gyeongui (Seoul-Sinuiju) and Donghae (East Coast) tracks. The use of the tracks for the promised shipment of light industry raw materials could be an option,” a government source said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the issue.

On Thursday, trains crossed the Military Demarcation Line for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. But critics said the test run of two railways, one in the east and the other in the west, is not likely to lead to the formal opening of the railways or to rail services for a joint industrial complex in Kaesong and tours of the North’s Mount Geumgang.

Earlier this month, South Korea said it will ship the first batch of light industry materials to the North via ship on the Incheon-Nampo route, but the mode of transportation for the rest has yet to be decided.

Last month, South Korea agreed that it will provide raw materials to the North in June to help revive its threadbare light industry in return for its natural resources. The two Koreas reached a similar swapping agreement in 2005, but it has not been implemented due mainly to the North Korean nuclear dispute.

In the agreement, the rice shipment, which will consist of 150,000 tons of domestic rice and 250,000 tons of imported rice, will be sent to the North late this month in the form of a loan to be paid back over the next 30 years with a 10-year grace period. Seoul hopes to link it with Pyongyang’s promise to take initial steps toward nuclear disarmament.

Last Tuesday, the South Korean government endorsed the spending of funds needed to provide rice and raw materials for light industry to North Korea. The South’s planned shipment of 400,000 tons of rice is worth US$170 million, while the provision of raw materials for light industry is worth $80 million. The approval will be promulgated on Tuesday.

In 2005, South Korea agreed to offer raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals, such as zinc and magnesite, after mines were developed with South Korean investments guaranteed by Pyongyang.

But the economic accord was not implemented, as North Korea abruptly cancelled the scheduled test runs of the railways in May last year, apparently under pressure from its powerful military.

American Enterprise Institute Book forum
4/17/2007

A couple of weeks ago, I had the opportunity to attend a book forum at the American Enterprise Institute on Nicholas Eberstadt’s new book, The North Korean Economy: Between Crisis and Catastrophe.  It was very informative to hear three different perspectives on the direction of North Korea’s economic reform.

Panelists included:

Nicholas Eberstadt, AEI
Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University
Deok-Ryong Yoon, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

In summary, Mr. Eberstadt and Mr. Lankov are pessimistic about the North Korean leadership’s desire to enact reforms–knowing that information leakages will undermine their political authority.  As Mr. Lankov pointed out, the North Korean nomenklatura are all children and grandchildren of the founders of the country who are highly vested in the current system.  They have no way out politically, and as such, cannot reform.

They argue that the economic reforms enacted in 2002 were primarily efforts to reassert control over the de facto institutions that had emerged in the collapse of the state-run Public Distribition System, not primarily intended to revive the economy.  Lankov does admit, however, that North Korea is more open and market-oriented than it has ever been, and  Mr. Yoon was by far the most optomistic on the prospects of North Korean reform.

Personally, I think it makes sense to think about North Korean politics as one would in any other country–as composed of political factions that each seek their own goals.  Although the range of policy options is limited by current political realities, there are North Koreans who are interested in reform and opening up–even if only to earn more money.  In this light, even if the new market institutions recognized in the 2002 reforms were acknowledged only grudgingly, they were still acknowledged, and their legal-social-economic positions in society are now de jure, not just de facto.  The North Korean leadership might be opposed to wholesale reform, but that is economically and strategically different than a controlled opening up on an ad hoc basis–which is what I believe we are currently seeing. Anyway, dont take my word for it, check out the full commentary posted below the fold:

(more…)