North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
7/27/2007

South and North Korea will start a joint on-site survey this week of three zinc and magnesite mines in the North’s mountainous northeastern region, the Unification Ministry said Friday.

“The zinc deposit in Komdok mine is about 200-300 million tons, the largest in East Asia, and magnesite deposits in Ryongyang and Taehung are about 4 billion tons, the world’s third largest,” a ministry official said.

Ahead of the 15-day joint survey of the mines starting from Saturday, the South started shipment of light industry materials worth US$80 million to the North on Wednesday. The first shipment was 5 million tons of polyester fabric worth $800,000.

Earlier this month, the two Koreas agreed on how to cooperate in natural resource exploration in the North in return for the South’s provision of light industry materials.

In 2005, South Korea agreed to offer industrial raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals after mines were developed with South Korean investments guaranteed by Pyongyang.

But the accord was not implemented, as North Korea abruptly cancelled the scheduled test runs of inter-Korean cross-border trains in May last year, apparently under pressure from its powerful military. The two Koreas carried out the historic test run of trains across their heavily armed border in mid-May.

Korea Times
Jane Han
7/26/2007

Inter-Korean trade rose 28.6 percent in the first half of 2007 from a year earlier, the country’s leading trade agency said Thursday, attributing the boost to the Gaeseong joint industrial complex and the eased tension between Seoul and Pyongyang.

Trade amounted to $720 million during the January-June period, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) said.

While South’s exports to the North dropped 9.4 percent to $330 million, imports from the North jumped an impressive 63.3 percent to $390 million.

The trade group credited the big import leap to the expanded number of items produced in the industrial complex located at North Korea’s western border city.

But unlike the positive performance of the two-way trade, the Mt. Geumgang tour business has dropped 7.2 percent.

South Korean companies are currently employing about 15,000 North Korean workers in the Gaeseong complex and the number is expected to rise as the facility undergoes expansion.

Symbolic of the cooperation between the Cold War rivals, the industrial park began construction in June 2003 and its operation started the following year.

Korea Times
Kang Shin-who
7/17/2007

More and more universities are removing departments of North Korean studies. Since Dongguk University was the first Korean university to establish a major in North Korean studies in 1994, five other universities followed: Kwandong University in 1996, Myongji University and Korea University in 1997, Chosun University in 1998 and Sun Moon University in 1998.

However, three of the five universities no longer offer the major. Chosun University abolished the department a year after its establishment because it could not guarantee jobs for graduates. Sun Moon University will change the department to North Asian studies from next year.

Also, Kwandong University, which is located in Gangwon Province, gave up the studies last year because the school has failed to meet the admission quota over the last few years.

Although students can major in North Korean studies at Dongguk University, the school will recruit only 20 new students for the next academic year, 20 less than the previous year.

Experts say that severe competition on landing jobs has caused many universities to give up North Korean studies. Many of the major hopefuls expect that they could easily get a job at the Ministry of Unification or research institutes for North Korea, but they have not taken advantage of their major. According to a survey by the Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education and Training, only 20 percent of students majoring in North Korean studies said that they are positive about their future, but 40 percent of them said their studies have no future.

While undergraduate schools have seen a decrease in the number of North Korean major students, more graduate schools have opened the studies. Sogang University set up the program at its graduate school in 1990, Kyungnam University in 1997 and Ewha Womans University last year.

NY Times
CHOE SANG-HUN
7/13/2007

A South Korean ship loaded with 6,200 tons of heavy fuel oil left for North Korea on Thursday under an agreement intended to end the North’s nuclear program.

The United Nations’ chief nuclear inspector said the North was expected to begin shutting down its main nuclear facilities early next week, after four and a half years of operation, during which time enough plutonium was thought to have been produced to make several atomic bombs.

The ship is expected to arrive at Sonbong, a port in northeastern North Korea, on Saturday, the same day a team of inspectors from the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to arrive in the North to monitor and verify the shutdown.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the atomic agency, told reporters in Seoul that shutting down five nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, 62 miles north of Pyongyang, the capital, would not be difficult and should be completed “within maybe a month or so.” His agency and North Korea have already agreed on the procedures.

The shutdown would be significant because it would halt the North’s only declared program for producing fuel that can be used in nuclear weapons. The five facilities to be frozen in Yongbyon, including the country’s sole operating nuclear reactor and a radiochemical laboratory, can yield more than 13 pounds of plutonium a year, enough for one atomic bomb, according to experts.

But the steps to be taken after the initial freeze of the nuclear program remain “very much open questions,” Dr. ElBaradei said. Those include whether North Korea will provide the agency with a complete inventory of its nuclear materials, and when it might return to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

“It’s going to be a very long process,” he said. “It’s going to be a complicated process. How smoothly the rest of the operation will go very much depends on how progress will be made in six-party talks.”

Chief envoys to the six-nation nuclear talks will meet in Beijing next Wednesday and Thursday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. The envoys, gathering for the first talks since March, were expected to discuss moves beyond the reactor shutdown.

North Korea agreed to shut down its Yongbyon facilities in a February agreement with the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan. The deal called for shipping 50,000 tons of fuel oil to North Korea, and South Korea volunteered.

It plans to complete shipping the oil by early August, starting with the installment on Thursday.

North Korea indicated last week that it would undertake the long-delayed shutdown after the first shipment arrived.

When United Nations inspectors return to Yongbyon, they will face the same problems they had faced there before they were expelled in late 2002. They will put in seals, install cameras and leave monitors to ensure that the facilities remain shut. But they will not be allowed to collect samples or access North Korean data, much less travel around the country, to determine how much nuclear material North Korea has produced in Yongbyon or elsewhere.

The five-megawatt reactor in Yongbyon began operating in the mid-1980s. When suspicions about North Korea’s nuclear activities emerged in the early 1990s, a key dispute was how much plutonium had been produced at Yongbyon until then — 90 grams, about 3 ounces, as North Korea reported to the I.A.E.A., or up to 10 kilograms, about 22 pounds, as the agency suspected.

The dispute has never been resolved, although North Korea agreed to suspend operations at Yongbyon in an agreement with the United States in 1994. The accord collapsed in late 2002, when North Korea expelled the United Nations inspectors and restarted the Yongbyon operation.

North Korea has since claimed to have taken spent fuel unloaded from the reactor and reprocessed it into plutonium. Last October, it conducted its first nuclear test.

“It remains an unanswered question: how much plutonium has North Korea so far produced?” said Lee Un-chul, a nuclear scientist at Seoul National University. “North Korea won’t easily give up its operational data.”

Donga
7/11/2007

When natural hazards like floods occur in North Korea, the South Korean government sends “humanitarian assistance.” But it has turned out that the government failed to monitor whether the emergency relief aid was being used appropriately.

The government spent 221 billion won (229 million dollars) from August last year to June this year to help North Korea repair damage from last July’s flood. But the Ministry of Unification said on July 10 that the after-monitoring of its use has not yet started.

After a massive flood hit North Korea last year, the ministry announced a plan to send relief aid to the North. At that time, the ministry pledged to visit the affected areas from time to time and see whether the sent items are used for the right purposes. The pledge has not yet been delivered.

The items that the government sent to Pyongyang via the Korean Red Cross include: 100,000 tons of rice, 100,000 tons of cement, 5,000 tons of iron reinforcing rods, 210 relief machines, 80,000 blankets, 10,000 emergency kits, and medicines.

“While sending the relief aid, Pyongyang conducted the nuclear test, so we had to stop; assistance was resumed this year. Due to this change in schedule, it was difficult for us to monitor the use of the aid. We will continue to negotiate with the North regarding field monitoring and access to their rationing lists,” said one official at the unification ministry.

However, many think that the monitoring, in effect, will be of no use, since the rationing of the relief aid might have already been finished.

After a railway station explosion had occurred in Ryongchon in North Pyongan Province in April 2004, the ministry also sent relief aid such as rice and cement. But the monitoring was done one year after the delivery, drawing criticism from the public.

Some point out that we should strengthen the monitoring of our rice aid, which is provided in return for Pyongyang’s scrapping of its nuclear program.

Seoul and Pyongyang made an agreement to visit three places on the east coast and two places on the west coast to oversee the allocation of aid whenever Seoul sends 100,000 tons of rice. The World Food Program, however, has an office in Pyongyang and monitors whether North Korean officials are making disproportionate allocations to the military.

In the meantime, the government sent 10 billion won (10.87 million dollars) worth of road paving materials to help proceed with the Mt. Baekdu tour project planned by Hyundai Asan and the Korea Tourism Organization. However, its usage has not yet been confirmed.

A total of 16,000 tons of materials were sent to the North in August 2005 and March 2006, but Pyongyang has not responded since July last year. Currently, the project is on hold.

“To push the project forward, we are contacting the North via several channels. But because there has not been any response from the North, we are having difficulties,” said one unification ministry official.

Joong Ang Daily
7/10/2007

South Korea will start sending 50,000 tons of rice aid to North Korea by road next week, as part of its promised loan of 400,000 tons of rice, officials said yesterday.

While 350,000 tons of rice will be delivered by sea, 30,000 tons will be delivered via rail in the west of the Korean Peninsula, and another 20,000 tons will be delivered via an east coast rail line, a Unification Ministry official said.

The two Koreas conducted a historic test of the reconnected railways across the border in mid-May.

South Korea resumed shipping rice aid to North Korea in late June after more than a year’s hiatus, as the North took steps toward nuclear dismantlement. The aid, which consists of 250,000 tons of imported rice and 150,000 tons of domestic rice, will be made over the next five months.

“The rice aid to North Korea via the overland route will be made over five weeks starting next Friday,” the official said.

North Korea is supposed to pay back the $152-million rice loan over 20 years after a 10-year grace period at an annual interest rate of 1 percent.

South Korea resumed shipments of fertilizer and other emergency aid to the North in late March, but withheld the loan of 400,000 tons of rice as an inducement for North Korea to start implementing a landmark agreement reached in the six-nation talks in February.

In early June, inter-Korean ministerial talks ended without tangible results after North Korea protested the South’s decision to withhold rice aid until the North took steps toward nuclear dismantlement.

South Korea suspended all food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after the North conducted missile tests in July.

Resumption of aid was stymied due to the North’s nuclear bomb test last October, but the two sides agreed to put inter-Korean projects back on track in early March. The last rice shipment was made in early 2006.

A poor harvest in 2006, disastrous summer flooding and a 75 percent fall in donor assistance from abroad have dealt severe blows to the impoverished North, according to World Food Program officials.

A recent think tank report said North Korea could run short of up to one-third of the food it needs this year if South Korea and other countries withhold aid. Data from the WFP and the Unification Ministry show that the North will need between 5.24 million tons and 6.47 million tons of food this year.

Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
7/10/2007

South Korea has signed a contract with a local refinery to provide heavy fuel oil to North Korea for shipment next week as part of a multilateral aid-for-disarmament deal, the Unification Ministry said Tuesday.

The contract comes on the heels of international nuclear watchdog monitors preparing for entry into the North next week for verification of the North’s shutdown of its nuclear facilities. Reports also said China is planning to host a fresh round of six-party talks on the North’s denuclearization next Wednesday.

“On Monday, the government signed a contract with SK Energy to provide 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to North Korea valued at 22.2 billion won (US$22 million),” Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Nam-sik said. The contract includes transportation fees and insurance premiums.

The first shipment of 6,200 tons will be sent to North Korea next Thursday as part of a six-party deal calling for the communist state to take steps to denuclearize in exchange for economic rewards and other incentives.

The date of delivery, originally set for July 14, has been advanced as North Korea is moving to shut down its main nuclear reactor under the Feb. 13 agreement with South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia. The five regional players have engaged North Korea in the six-party nuclear disarmament talks since 2003.

With the earlier than expected oil delivery, South Korea expects that North Korea will accelerate its process of shutting down its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, about 90 kilometers north of Pyongyang.

North Korea is entitled to one million tons of heavy fuel oil as a reward for a series of steps to shut down and disable its key nuclear facilities. South Korea is responsible for the first shipment of 50,000 tons.

In late June, working-level officials from the two Koreas agreed on the shipping arrangements. The South Korean portion of the aid should be sent within two weeks. The remaining 950,000 tons, to be split equally between the five parties involved in the six-way talks, will be given when the North takes further steps to disarm.

The cost of the aid is to be shouldered equally by the other nations in the six-party talks. But Japan has vowed not to provide any assistance to the North until the decades-old issue of Japanese citizens abducted by Pyongyang is resolved.

Implementation of the February deal had been delayed pending resolution of a banking dispute over US$25 million of the North’s funds that were frozen in a Macau bank. The issue was resolved in June after the money was transferred to Pyongyang with the help of the U.S. and Russian central banks.

Korea Herald
7/8/2007

South and North Korea on Saturday agreed on ways to cooperate in light industry and natural resource exploration.

The two Koreas announced they would carry out the written agreement following talks held in the North Korean border city of Gaeseong from Friday, Yonhap News Agency reported.

The talks came as North Korea moves closer to shutting down its main nuclear facilities.

“It took quite a long time for the two sides reach a compromise on prices on a list of items,” a Unification Ministry official said.

In Friday’s overnight talks, North Korea agreed to accept the materials at the price South Korea suggested. The North will pay the costs for transportation, cargo working and demurrage, while the South is to bear all the costs for shipping, insurance and using ports.

The South Korean side estimated these incidental expenses would be less than $4 million equivalent to five percent of the total cash price of items to be supplied to North Korea.

Yonhap
7/5/2007

The construction of a Pyongyang elementary school, funded by South Korean citizens, is to begin next month, officials said Thursday.

The project of reconstructing one of the four elementary schools in Pyongyang is being carried out at the North’s request, an official of the South Gyeongsang provincial government said.

“We have successfully collected contributions of a total amount of 987,000,000 won (US$1,070,500) from people of the province for building a Pyongyang elementary school,” the official said. “We are going to send the building materials soon to start the construction next month. We are aiming to complete it by the end of the year.”

South Gyeongsang Province has been cooperating with North Korea, especially in the agricultural area.

Governor Kim Tae-ho went to North Korea in April and took part in the ground-breaking ceremony for the school.

Korea Times
Yoon Won-sup
7/3/2007

Kim Yun-kyu, who stepped down as vice president of Hyundai Asan, South Korea’s operator of inter-Korean business and tourism, due to illegal use of corporate funds in October 2005, is resuming work with North Korea.

Kim set up his own company for North Korean business last year, dubbed Acheon Global Corp., which imported 531 kilograms of caviar from North Korea via the East Coast train on June 21, and entered the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, according to the Unification Ministry.

The importing of the caviar is Acheon’s first business transaction with North Korea, which was finalized by Kim’s aide Yuk Jae-hee, vice president of Acheon and former executive of Hyundai, during Yuk’s visit to Mt. Geumgang in North Korea June 18 to 20.

Kim will visit Mt. Geumgang Thursday, the first time since his resignation, to discuss additional imports with North Korean government officials. His North Korean counterpart is a business association in charge of fisheries.

Kim is reportedly seeking to bring North Korean sand to the South. Accordingly, he visited Gaeseong June 19, and Yuk plans to visit Gaeseong soon for further discussion on sand importing.

However, the two CEOs of Acheon are not likely to meet senior North Korean government officials, though they previously have met with and will, again, meet with working-level officials on inter-Korean affairs, in Gaeseong and Mt. Geumgang.

“Kim got approval from North Korea to visit the country for trade of agricultural and fishery projects, and the discussion has been conducted according to the purpose of his visit to North Korea,” a South Korean government official said on condition of anonymity.

Kim already discussed imports of North Korean fisheries and sand to the South and the establishment of an office in Gaeseong, with Choi Seung-chul, vice chairman of Asia Pacific Peace Committee of North Korea.

In line with Kim’s plan, Acheon signed a contract with the Korea Land Corp. to rent 1,400 square meters of land in the Gaeseong complex.

A building is to be set up there to accommodate restaurants, coffeehouses and other facilities for workers in Gaeseong, but it is not yet decided what kind of facilities will be built by Acheon. A permanent office of Acheon also is likely to be set up in Gaeseong.

Some observers say Kim’s resumed activity may lead to competition with Hyundai Asan regarding inter-Korean business, but the dominant opinion is that the chance is slim for the time being.

Kim led the inter-Korean business with Mt. Geumgang tourism and Gaeseong complex under the confidence of late Hyundai Group founder Chung Ju-yung and his late son Mong-hun, former president of Hyundai Asan. Now Hyun Jung-eun, widow of Chung Mong-hun, leads Hyundai Asan.