North Korean Economy Watch

Quoting from the Korea Times:

Inter-Korean trade fell 27.7 percent in November from a year earlier to $142.72 million, according to the ministry data posted on its Web site.

“Payments to North Korea are mostly made in dollars or euro, so the weak Korean currency has been the primary reason behind the falling trade,” a ministry official was quoted as saying.

More than 80 South Korean firms produce watches, shoes, clothes and kitchenware at a joint industrial complex in the North’s border town of Gaeseong. North Korea also exports sand to the South.

In October, South and North Korea traded goods and services worth $163.06 million, down 23.2 percent from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, inter-Korean trade from January to November reached $1.69 billion, an increase of 3.7 percent from the same period in 2007.

And According to the Hankyoreh (h/t OneFreeKorea):

According to a report, seven companies have canceled their contracts to build facilities at Gaeseong complex since October. Three of the seven bought space at a site reserved for machinery and metal cooperatives in June, and were in the process of constructing or designing factories. The report was submitted to Rep. Chun Jung-bae of the main opposition Democratic Party by the division supporting the Gaeseong Industrial Complex at the Ministry of Unification.

Two companies are in situations unrelated to the breakdown in inter-Korean relations, one had a fire last summer and another is suffering from losses incurred as a result of investment in KIKO, “knock-in knock-out” currency options trading.

The remaining five companies were believed to have abandoned their plans because of the deterioration in inter-Korean relations. An official at one of the five companies, which canceled its investment contract in December, said, “Although the economic crisis was one of the reasons why we canceled the contract, the main reason was that business prospects have darkened due to strained inter-Korean ties. Other companies that moved to (the Gaeseong complex) at the same time also decided to cancel their contracts for the same reason.”

In canceling their contracts, the seven companies forfeited their initial investments, which ranged from 17 million won (US$12,500) to 70 million won each. Land at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex was sold at 45,000 won per one square meter and the companies paid 10 percent of that price as part of their deposit.

Seven other companies also canceled their contracts last year, but they did so after an on-site feasibility study was conducted and it was determined that their businesses were not financially viable. All seven companies were able to receive their deposits under a special provision on contract cancellation, which allows companies to receive their deposits if the contract is canceled within six months of when it was signed.

The companies that canceled their contracts this year were not able to take advantage of the provision because they canceled over six months after signing their contracts.

There are growing concerns that more companies may be canceling their contracts as well. The head of Company “H,” who signed a contract to build a facility at the Gaeseong complex last year, said, “Though I would lose my initial investment of several millions of won, I’m considering canceling the contract because the tensions inter-Korean relations are likely to continue for another five years.”

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean Trade Falls for Second Straight Month
Korea Times
12/20/2008

More companies cancel contracts at Gaeseong complex
Hankyoreh
12/17/2008

Sometimes the headlines write themselves.

According to the Union of Catholic Asian News (excerpt):

For the first time in almost 60 years, a Catholic priest will stay in North Korea, and look after the welfare of local workers.

Franciscan Father Paul Kim Kwon-soon says he will stay in Pyongyang, probably beginning in late November, and serve as a “social worker” for factory workers in the first joint North-South business venture.

Returning to South Korea from a visit, Father Kim told UCA News on Nov. 4 that North Korea is allowing him to run a newly built welfare center in Pyongyang that houses a soup kitchen, a free clinic and a public bath, even though “they know I am a Catholic priest.” As a visitor, he will have to renew his visa every two months.

According to Father Kim, the three-story welfare center he will manage is within the factory premises and will provide the workers with services such as medical checkups, meals and haircuts. It will have the capacity to offer free meals to up to 1,500 workers a day.

“I can say that the center will be a turning point in the humanitarian aid to the North,” the priest noted. “We only could send aid materials” in the past, he pointed out, whereas he can now bring aid materials to the North and provide direct service.

Saebyol General agreed last February to establish the center after three years of “great efforts” on the part of his Order of Friars Minor, Father Kim explained.

During the four-day visit to the North, Bishop Lazzaro You Heung-sik of Daejeon presided at the opening ceremony of the center on Oct. 30, the priest reported.

On Nov. 1 Bishop You, former president of Caritas Corea, the Korean bishops’ social service organization, celebrated a Mass at Changchung Church, the only Catholic church in North Korea, to thank God for opening the center. About 50 South Korean Catholics including eight priests and four Religious took part. No North Korean Catholics attended.

Father Michael Lee Chang-jun, secretary of Caritas Corea, accompanied Bishop You. He told UCA News on Nov. 5 that he wished “the center could provide its service not only for the workers, but other North Korean people in the neighborhood.”

Cecilia Lee Seung-jung, North Korea program manager for Caritas Internationalis, the worldwide confederation of Caritas organizations, earlier called the agreement on the center a significant development. She pointed out that inter-Korean exchanges have been limited since the current government in Seoul assumed office last February.

Records of South Korea’s Unification Ministry show aid to North Korea from the South Korean government and civil groups amounting to US$63.6 million from January to September 2008, while in 2007 it totaled US$304.6 million.

According to Church sources, North Korea maintains that 3,000 Catholics in North Korea practice their faith at “home worship places” across the country, with no residing priest or nun. Between 1949 and 1950 all priests and nuns who remained in the North were executed or disappeared.

It is very interesting that the mission will be operated out of a South/North joint venture company rather than North Korea’s Changchung Cathedral in eastern Pyongyang.  There are countless reasons why concerned parties believe this to be a superior arrangement.

To learn more about Pyongyang’s new hemp factory, click here.

To read the full story mentioned ablove, click below:
Catholic Priest To Work In North For Social Welfare
Union of Catholic Asian News
11/6/2008

UPDATE: A Catholic Priest will be operating a mission out of the factory.  Read more about this here. 

ORIGINAL POST: Yes, you read the title correctly.  Billed by Yonhap as the first inter-Korean joint venture in Pyongyang:

Pyongyang Hemp Textiles is a cooperative effort between the South’s Andong Hemp Textiles and the North’s Saebyol General Trading Co., with a total investment of US$30 million shared equally by the two sides, according to the officials.

Around 1,000 North Koreans will be working for the textiles and logistics firm, which is built on 47,000 square meters of land in Pyongyang, they said.

…The opening ceremony for the joint venture was delayed for close to two months due to deteriorating inter-Korean relations, which worsened after a South Korean woman was shot to death while traveling the communist country in early July. Pyongyang refused to apologize for the shooting, and denied requests from Seoul to cooperate in a fact-finding mission into the death.

If anyone has any idea where this company is located on Google Earth, please let me know. 

According to Wikipedia, which is not an authoritative source:

Industrial Hemp is produced in many countries around the world. Major producers include Canada, France, and China. The United States is the only industrialized nation to continue to ban industrial hemp. While the Hemp is imported to the United States more than to any other country, the United States Government does not distinguish between marijuana and non-psychoactive Cannabis used for industrial and commercial purposes.

The South Korean government seems to have made some significant changes to the way business is to be conducted between themselves and the North.  It seems regulations have been eased on South Korean companies seeking permission to operate in the North—and some new subsidies have been put on the table.

From the Korea Times:

The government Tuesday abolished a system under which companies here must receive a permit to do business in North Korea.

As a result, companies which have been seeking to operate in the reclusive state would see simplified procedures when they start inter-Korean projects.

The Cabinet approved revisions of the law governing trade and cooperation between South and North Korea.

Under the previous licensing system, a permit for both companies and projects were necessary.

But now, companies have to get approval for their projects only and inter-Korean cooperation programs designated by a presidential decree can proceed without the approval.

If firms get the license in a dishonest way, the government can cancel it.

In a bid to diversify trade between the two Koreas, the revision allows services and intangible things as well as goods to be exchanged.

The government also approved a revision bill to encourage foreign investors to invest in inter-Korean trade.

It says that foreigners who invest $10 million or more can get some incentives such as cash grants.

The legislation on South-North cooperation was introduced in 1990 to support exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas.

The Ministry of Unification has a committee under itself to coordinate related policies and make a decision on important inter-Korean cooperation issues.

To promote economic, cultural and social exchange projects, a permit from the minister has been required.

If caught violating the law, the person will be sentenced to up to three years imprisonment or fined up to 10 million won ($6,770).

Read the full article here:
Inter-Korean Business Procedures Simplified
Korea Times
Kim Sue-young
10/28/2008

Korea Business Consultants has published their latest newsletter.  You may download it here.

Topics covered include:
Six Party Talk progress
South Korea/Russia gas deal
More factories opening in the DPRK
UN survey of DPRK population
Summit pledges
Pyongynag hosts autumn trade fair
KEPCO to Abandon NK Reactor Gear
Trust Company Handling DPRK’s Overseas Business
DPRK-Russia Railway Work Begins
ROK Opposition Calls for Renewed Cooperation with DPRK
ROK Delegation Leaves for DPRK
ROK Aid Workers Leave for DPRK
“ROK Makes US$27.6 Billion from DPRK Trade”
“Kaesong Output Tops US$400 Million”
DPRK, Kenya Set Up Diplomatic Ties
Medvedev Hails DPRK Anniversary
Claim to North Korean rock fame
International Film Festival Opens
Ginseng

(The Wilson Center’s North Korean International Documentation Project (NKIDP) does innovative historical work collecting, translating, comparing, and analyzing records kept on the DPRK in the archives of formerly (and some currenty) communist countries.  They recently held an innovative conference where they brough in period policy makers to discuss and comment on these archival records.)

NKIDP publishes document reader from international conference “Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968-1969”
September 8-9, 2008

Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968-1969 focused on the two tumultuous years which saw the capture of the U.S. Navy’s intelligence ship USS Pueblo by the DPRK, the North Korean attempt to assassinate ROK President Park Chunghee with a cross-border commando raid on the Blue House, and numerous other provocative incidents.

The conference’s document reader—a 1200 page collection of newly declassified documents from South Korean, American, and former communist bloc archives–is the most comprehensive collection of primary source materials on US-ROK-DPRK relations during the late 1960s ever assembled, and it is now available for download free of charge from NKIDP.

Armed with this document reader, scholars from around the world, and former policy-makers from the United States, South Korea, and the former communist bloc gathered at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington for two days of discussions.

These discussions gave historians the opportunity to interact with the very officials whose reports and memoranda comprised the document reader, and will result in a more nuanced understanding of US-ROK-DPRK relations during the late 1960s.

The DPRK’s recent efforts to reconstruct the Yongbyon 5MW nuclear reactor seem to have brought implementation of the “second” Agreed Framework to a halt, though it was already behind schedule.  This week the US sent Chris Hill to Pyongyang to try and rescue the process which is hung up on verification protocol.   The North claims to have sufficiently declared their nuclear capabilities and believe they should be removed from the US list of state sponsors of terror.  The US does not believe this condition has been met and seeks to establish a protocol to verify if the North’s declaration is accurate.

Japan is also set to extend sanctions (due to expire) on the DPRK.  According to Bloomberg:

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party decided to extend sanctions against North Korea for six months after their Oct. 13 expiration date, Jiji Press reported.

LDP lawmakers agreed to extend the sanctions because North Korea took steps to reactivate its nuclear program and made little progress in an investigation into Japanese nationals abducted by North Korean agents, Jiji reported.

Prime Minister Taro Aso’s Cabinet is likely to endorse the extension by Oct. 10., the Japanese wire service said.

The sanctions include a ban on North Korean imports and the entry of North Korean ships into Japanese ports. The extension will be the fourth since sanctions began after North Korea’s October 2006 nuclear test, Jiji said.

Just as the DPRKs hopes of restoring/establishing relations with Japan and the US start to dim, however, they have reached out to South Korea, with whom political relations had recently gone sour due to the South’s policy change from unsupervised aid provision under the “sunshine policy” to a quid-pro-quo relationship under a “policy of mutual benefits and common prosperity“.  Additionally, the fatal shooting of a South Korean tourist in Kumgangsan led to a deterioration in cooperation between the two governments and suspension of the inter-Korean project (a cash cow for the North).

How much was the Sunshine Policy worth to the North?  South Korean GNP lawmaker Jin Yeong, who analzed data submitted by the Unification Ministry and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, claims that the Kim and Roh administrations oversaw the transfer of 8.38 trillion South Korean Won in aid and loans since 1998.

Taking office in February 2003 after the second North Korean nuclear crisis emerged in September 2002, Roh doled out 5.68 trillion won to Pyongyang over his five-year term, double that of his predecessor Kim (2.70 trillion won).

Kim and Roh gave to North Korea 2.4 trillion won for building light-water reactors and in food aid; 2.5 trillion won to pin the price of rice aid to that of the global market; 2.8 trillion won for other aid including fertilizer; and 696 billion won in aid from advocacy groups and provincial governments.

In 2003, South Korean aid to the North reached a high of 1.56 trillion won. Then after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il declared that his country had gone nuclear in 2005, the Roh administration sent 1.48 trillion won to the North.

Jin said, “South Korea gave a loan with rice first in 2000. Payments on the loan are deferred for 10 years. Thus, we are to receive the first repayment installment in 2010. But most of the 2.4 trillion won in loans seem irrecoverable.”

PricewaterhouseCoopers Korea audited the fiscal 2007 accounts of Seoul`s inter-Korean cooperation funds, saying, “Considering the characteristics of the North Korean government, grave uncertainty exists over the possibility of redeeming the loans given to the regime. The ultimate outcome depends heavily on the conditions around the Korean Peninsula.”

Since President Lee Myung-bak took office this year, exchanges between the two Koreas have been rare. Still, aid to the light-water reactor and the Gaesong industrial complex projects and civilian donations have continued, amounting to a combined 211.3 billion won. (Donga Ilbo)

It appears the Russians are doing their part to bring the North and South together through a project they can all agree on—building a natural gas pipeline from Russia to South Korea via the DPRK:

South Korea plans to import $90 billion of natural gas from Russia via North Korea, with which it shares one of the world’s most heavily fortified borders, to reduce its reliance on more expensive cargoes arriving by sea.

State-run Korea Gas Corp. signed a preliminary agreement with OAO Gazprom, Russia’s largest energy company, to import 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 30 years starting in 2015, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in a statement. The accord was signed in Moscow during President Lee Myung Bak’s three-day visit that began yesterday.

Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller said after talks today between Lee and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that the exact delivery route hasn’t been determined and that shipments could begin as early as 2015.

“Russia suggested a pipeline via North Korea, which is expected to be more economical than other possible routes,” the minister said in a news briefing. “Russia will contact the North to discuss this.”

“Transporting gas through North Korea could be risky for South Korea,” said Kim Jin Woo, a senior research analyst at Korea Energy Economics Institute. “But the project will ease tensions on the Korean peninsula if Russia successfully persuades North Korea” to accept the plan.

North Korea could earn $100 million a year from the gas- pipeline project, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said.

“Russia will supply the fuel in the form of LNG or compressed natural gas if negotiations with North Korea do not work out,” according to the ministry’s statement. South Korea and Russia will sign a final agreement in 2010 when a study on the route is completed.

South Korea is turning to Russia, holder of the world’s biggest proven gas reserves, as it faces intensifying competition for energy resources from China and Japan. Asia’s fourth-largest economy depends on gas for 16 percent of its power generation.

Under the agreement, a pipeline to South Korea will be laid via North Korea from gas fields on Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East. The pipeline would initially carry 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year, or about 20 percent of South Korea’s annual consumption. The cost of the gas link’s construction is estimated at $3 billion, the ministry said.

Read the full articles here:
South Korea Seeks $90 Billion of Russian Natural Gas
Bloomberg
Shinhye Kang
9/29/2008

Liberal Gov`ts Gave W8.38 Bln to North Korea`
Donga Ilbo
9/30/2008

According to the Choson Ilbo, the South Korean government is monitoring 76 pro-DPRK websites:

The National Police Agency is monitoring a total of 76 pro-North Korea websites overseas. According to data on the NPA submitted to Grand National Party lawmaker Lee Bum-rae of the National Assembly’s Public Administration and Security Committee, of the websites with servers abroad, 31 in the U.S., 19 in Japan, 13 in China, 4 in Germany, and 9 in other countries. 

The NPA said it has also asked or advised web portals to delete a total of 6,377 pro-Pyongyang postings since the inauguration of the Roh Moo-hyun administration in February 2003. The number has been on the increase from 1,010 in 2004 to 1,434 in 2007. Until August this year, the NPA already asked web portals to delete a total of 1,035 such postings.

I find this personally disturbing for a couple of reasons—the first being that the South Korean government asking content to be removed from the Internet sounds more like a North Korean policy than that of a democratic government in one of Asia’s wealthiest nations.  The second bit of news that disturbs me is that I cannot come up with more than 10 pro-DPRK web sites.  Where are these people hiding?     

Read the full article here.

UPDATE: South Korea raids the offices of a pro-North group:

A group of agents from the National Intelligence Service, the police, and the Prosecutor’s Office Saturday stormed the headquarters of the All-Korean Committee for Implementation of June 15 Joint Declaration in Seoul and its 5 regional offices as well as the houses of the organization’s five officials simultaneously, Yonhap News reported.

The authorities also arrested seven officials of the organization, including its leader, whose last name is Choi, for violation of the National Security Law.

The authorities reportedly launched the massive investigation of the group when it was airing the media contents from North Korea through its Internet-based “6.15TV” that allegedly violated the 7th clause of the law that prohibits the praise for and encouragement on North Korea.
The group was established in October 2000 to commemorate the June 15 Joint Declaration and promote the unification movement on a civilian level. It has been engaged in civilian exchanges between the two Koreas, demanded the withdrawal of the U.S. troops from South Korea as well as a movement to understand North Korea better.

The group’s Web site (www.615.or.kr) was inaccessible Saturday afternoon due to heavy traffic volume.

Read the full story in the Korea Times.

UPDATE 2: 4 South Korean arrested for “praising north”

Four progressive civic group members were arrested Tuesday for allegedly praising North Korea, leading the Solidarity for Practice of the South-North Joint Declaration (SPSNJD) to criticize the National Intelligence Service (NIS) and the prosecution for abusing what they call the outdated National Security Law.

They were charged with opening an exclusive pro-North chat room on the group’s Web site ― restricted to certified members ― and releasing North Korean press material to praise the Stalinist country at the expense of the South. (Korea Times)

Really? A chat room with 4 nobodys?  It would be different if they had guns and plans, but reading silly North Korean press releases can’t seriously be considered subversive activity can it?

The policy of mutual benefits and common prosperity

It doesn’t have the same ring as “Sunshine Policy,” and the acronym PMBCP is too long, but this is the English name of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s policy towards the DPRK. 

According to Yonhap:

We decided to fix an English name for the policy because there have been many different translated versions,” Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for the Unification Ministry, the top Seoul office on North Korea, told reporters.

He said the name was chosen because it best suits the government’s policy of pursuing a relationship of co-existence and co-prosperity with the North beyond the current phase of reconciliation.

The government aims at a firmer inter-Korean reconciliation than its two liberal predecessors, seeking to bring tangible benefits not only to the North but to the South as well, officials said.

President Lee Myung-bak pledged during his election campaign to help the North triple its per capita gross national income to US$3,000 if it abandons its nuclear programs and opens itself to the world.

The so-called “Vision 3,000” program is now part of Lee’s broader North Korea policy, officials said.

The goal of tripling the DPRK’s per capita GNI (GNP) to $3,000 is based on the assumption that the DPRK’s current per capita income is close to $1,000, which is a wild over statement.  Some more realistic assesments put it as low as $368 per year.  Here is a wrap up of the DPRK’s most recent economic stats from the Bank of Korea.

Read the full article here:
Gov’t sets official English name for N.K. policy
Yonhap
Shim Sun-ah
8/26/2008

Despite tensions between North and South Korean this year, South Korea is still delivering promised energy aid to the North:

Under a six-nation accord signed last year, South Korea has started delivering energy assistance to North Korea.

This week’s shipment included 600 tons of round steel bars.

Seoul has so far provided assistance worth 124,000 tons of heavy fuel oil.

Read the full story here:
South Korea supplies the North with energy
Birmingham Star
08/08/08