North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE: Some interesting follow up from a member of Phoenix Commercial Ventures at the Gerson Lehrman Group web page:

Analysis
My colleagues and I are directors of a number of businesses (Phoenix Commercial Ventures) that have been based in the DPRK (aka North Korea) for a number of years. Goldman Sachs is correct to highlight the upside of business opportunities with the DPRK.

The DPRK (North Korea) represents one of the last “green field” economies in the world with exceptional investment opportunities. As such it provides an unparalleled opportunity for business professionals who know and understand the risks, the people and the country. As estate agents are fond of saying, it is a case of “location, location, location”.

1 Physical Location
The DPRK (North Korea) physically borders Russia, China and ROK; as such it is in a prime location in this most important of trade routes. Additionally, its location in Asia Pacific gives it access to one of the world’s wealthiest and most vibrant regions.

2 Resource Location
The DPRK has abundant mineral resources including; coal, gold, magnesium, nickel, copper, graphite, nephelite, zinc etc. The total value of which is estimated at being around $2.5 Trillion (IHT 21 Dec 2007).

The DPRK has a well educated (99-100% literacy), intelligent, hard working population whose wage rates are highly competitive.

The DPRK has a forward looking environmental policy that offers green investors opportunities to generate environmentally friendly power for supply locally and export elsewhere.

3 Historical Location
The recent improvements in geopolitical issues demonstrates that the time is right, in terms of historical context, for progress to be made with regard to the DPRK entering the world financial community and to benefit from world trade.

Practicalities
It is not difficult to set up shop, if you approach the DPRK with a well thought through serious business proposal/well researched business plan and are a professional with reputable/professional local contacts.

It should be emphasised that businesses in the DPRK are no more fond of having their time wasted than businesses anywhere else in the world, local businesses having had their time wasted tend to prefer to deal with professionals that they trust.

When setting up a business within the DPRK remember that you cannot manage solely by email and need people on the ground, as is the case with Phoenix Commercial Ventures. Organisations that do not have people on the ground in DPRK will fail.

One of the major challenges facing a newcomer to the local market is a very practical one – how to find a way to balance the need for pre-start-up feasibility studies requiring possibly large amounts of information from the local Korean partner, against the need to demonstrate to the local authorities that the investor is serious.

There have been many cases over the years of potential foreign investors making promises they cannot fulfil, and the Koreans have consequently become somewhat sceptical. It is therefore essential to promise only what you know you can deliver, and to deliver within the timeframe agreed.

The DPRK Government is actively encouraging foreign investment in areas such as mining, energy, agriculture and IT.

Investors in the DPRK are accorded generous tax concessions:

1. A reduced rate of tax of 10% (standard rate – 25%)
2. An additional tax exemption – whereby the investor is fully exempt from paying tax from the year of investment for 3 years, and 50% exempt for the subsequent 2 years
3. Any tax paid will be returned, if a subsequent investment is made

The DPRK is also undertaking small experiments with free market economy principles that would have been unthinkable a couple of years ago. There are now 24-hour stores operating in Pyongyang, several places providing computer access and a series of adverts on the TV.

Kim Yong-sul, DPRK Vice Minister for Trade, is quoted as saying at a Pyongyang meeting of overseas ethnic Korean businessmen October 25 2004:

“In the past, we only allowed foreign companies entry into specialized economic zones, but now, we will allow them to set up in other places around the DPRK.”

Misconceptions
There are a number of misconceptions harboured by some in the West about doing business in the DPRK. The one that we most frequently encounter is that people do not believe that it is possible, as a Westerner, to set up and run a company in the DPRK. This is patently untrue, the DPRK allows Western companies to set up and run joint ventures (JV’s) with a majority shareholding, with local partners and to remit profits;  the government encourages foreign investment.

One of our (Phoenix Commercial Ventures Ltd) aims is to demystify the business environment, demonstrate that people can make successful and ethical joint ventures in the DPRK that provide a decent return, employ local people, engage with local professionals; thereby encouraging others of good repute to come and do the same.

Another misconception is that communications from outside the DPRK with people working in the DPRK are impossible. This is untrue. I can call via phone and email my colleagues directly from London.

Starting and running a JV in the DPRK requires the same approach as it would in any other country – it is the fact that it is a JV that is important, not that it is in the DPRK.

That means you have to have the good judgement to size up and choose a good partner with whom you are going to work well together, but then you have to do just that – work well together, with emphasis on each of those words.

If you start a joint venture where you are always suspicious of the joint venture partner, then you shouldn’t have started the JV in the first place, it will never succeed – that is exactly the same in any country.

It is absolutely essential to have resident foreign management, a joint venture cannot be run remotely from abroad. The quality of, and relationship with, the local staff is essential; as is that of the foreign management. The aim of the JV should be to bond the personnel into an independent unit, who are striving for the success of the JV, and to remove entirely any idea of ‘our side’ and ‘their side’ within the JV.

The Barclays Report
Goldman Sachs are not alone in viewing the future positively. In 2004 Barclays Capital Research issued an upbeat report about the DPRK:

“The North Korean economy does not seem about to collapse” (contrary to what many might think).

1. As time goes by we are likely to see “the development of an uneasy coexistence with the US”.
2. There are some signs of improvement in the North Korea’s economy, thanks to recent reforms. The growth will remain very slow, but the regime has built in “coping mechanisms” that will prevent collapse.
3. “A slow income growth could be supportive of political stability, because it would make it easier for the regime to control popular expectations.”
4.What the Chinese would call peaceful evolution is possible:

“Political and economic stability would, over the longer term, see the completion of the transition from a planned to a market economy and greater integration of North Korea into the global economy. This in turn, could support a long-term normalisation of North Korea’s diplomatic relations with the external world.”

Plus Ca Change
When we were exhibiting at the Pyongyang Spring International Trade Fair in May 2008, our CEO was at our stand and was approached by a young Korean lad who in perfect English said “Excuse me, am I disturbing you?”

It turned out that he wanted his photo taken.

The above may not seem much of an anecdote to those who have little understanding of the DPRK. However, those who do will realise the significance of that.

We are also attending the current four day international trade fair which opened this Monday in Pyongyang, with 120 companies from the DPRK and 14 other economies taking part.

The DPRK offers an unparalleled opportunity for business professionals who know and understand the risks, the people and the country.

ORIGINAL POST: (Thanks to a reader: Paper link at the bottom) A new paper by Goohoo Kwon at Goldman Sachs argues that the economy of a reunified Korea could be larger than France and Germany by the middle of this century.  The paper is not available on line yet, but according to to an article about the GS paper in the Wall Street Journal:

Since the reunification of West and East Germany 20 years ago, South Korean leaders and economists have convinced many people here that reuniting with North Korea will be costly and disruptive. In the latest gloomy forecast, a government think tank last month said that the tax burden ratio, or proportion of tax revenue to gross domestic product, would need to rise by two percentage points and stay that way for 60 years to pay for reunification.

In the study released Monday, Goldman Sachs economist Kwon Goo-hoon says the risks of reunification need to be re-evaluated, particularly in the wake of the rapid development of countries like Vietnam and Mongolia that also had state-run economies like North Korea’s.

His study contains North Korean data that he acknowledges may not be accurate and assumptions about future behavior that may not pan out. Even so, its tone is more optimistic than previous studies that contributed to South Koreans’ ambivalence about unification.

In an interview, Mr. Kwon said he believed for a long time that unification would be too costly for the South. He based that view largely on what happened with the newly united Germany, where the currencies were quickly equalized, the border opened and huge transfer payments made from the former West to the former East Germany.

“People always look at Germany when they discuss unification of the Koreas, but if you look at China and Hong Kong, or more properly Eastern Europe, Mongolia or Vietnam, you see there are better ways of doing this,” Mr. Kwon said. “I think it’s a matter of education and dialogue.”

In March, the Bank of Korea published a report that said Hong Kong’s gradual integration with China beginning in 1997 and France’s handling of its former colonies after World War II were better models. Both that study and Mr. Kwon’s suggest the two Koreas maintain separate currencies and restrict crossings at the inter-Korean border, perhaps for decades as North Korea’s currency appreciates and its people grow wealthier.

Mr. Kwon’s study goes several steps further by suggesting that the huge growth potential of North Korea could help offset the slowing growth of South Korea, which is burdened by limited natural resources and a fast-aging population. By contrast, North Korea has huge mineral deposits and a population that is younger and growing twice as quickly as South Korea.

Using long-term growth forecasts Goldman Sachs has previously published for industrialized countries, Mr. Kwon concluded that the gross domestic product of a united Korea would be the world’s eighth-largest in 2050 at $6 trillion, surpassing France around 2040 and Germany and Japan later that decade.

Today, South Korea’s GDP is about $800 billion and North Korea’s is believed to be around $20 billion, though no data has been collected inside the North since the 1960s. Some economists believe its economic output is considerably less, while others note that most estimates tend to leave out the North’s well-known illicit activities such as narcotics production and currency counterfeiting.

Nearly all previous economic reports on Korean unification focused on the costs that South Koreans will face and ignore or play down investment and business opportunities that may also occur. Mr. Kwon said the tone of the discussion will change as economic and demographic pressures grow in the South and he wanted to produce an analytical framework ahead of that.

Further information:
Goldman Sachs Has a Different View of Korean Unification
Wall Street Journal
Evan Ramstad
9/21/2009

Global Economics Paper No. 188: A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks
Goldman Sachs Slobal ECS Asia research
Goohoon Kwon, CFA
September 2009

Lots of North Korean economic info here.

UPDATE 9/16/2009: Despite the downward trajectory that business in the Kaesong Zone seemed to be taking this year, things appear to have bottomed out.  According to Yonhap, the Koreas have signed a Kaesong wage increase.  According to the article:

South and North Korea agreed to a 5 percent wage hike at a joint industrial park on Wednesday, the Unification Ministry here said, in the latest sign of inter-Korean projects returning to normal.

North Korea earlier demanded a 400 percent raise in monthly wages for its workers at the South Korean-run park in Kaesong, just north of the border.

South Korea’s management office in Kaesong “signed an agreement on a 5 percent wage increase” with its North Korean counterpart, ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said in a brief statement.

The North voluntarily withdrew its earlier demand last week in a striking shift from its unyielding attitude in four rounds of negotiations from April to July. The demand called for monthly wages be raised to US$300 from the average $70-80, apparently in retaliation against Seoul’s hard-line policy toward Pyongyang.

The Kaesong park opened in late 2004 as an outcome of the first inter-Korean summit four years earlier. It houses 114 mostly small-sized South Korean firms producing clothing, electronic equipment, kitchenware and other labor-intensive goods with about 40,000 North Korean workers.

The venture is seen as a much-needed source of dollar income for the North, which is currently under U.N. sanctions for its May nuclear test that bans cash flows to the country.

The 5 percent rate hike will increase the minimum wage to about $58 from the current $55.

Separately, North Korea was conducting a door-to-door survey on South Korean businesses at the joint park, said ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo.

North Korea asserted that the two-day survey that continues until Thursday was to examine the firms’ output and “listen to their complaints and difficulties regarding tax and accounting,” Lee said. Such on-site surveys have been done sporadically, she added.

Although tensions might have eased, it remains to be seen whether the business community can be coaxed into making serious capital investments in the DPRK.

Read previous Kaesong Industrial Zone news below:

(more…)

UPDATE 3 (2009-9-17): South Korea rules out “water attack”.  According to AFP:

South Korea’s new defence chief said Thursday there was no evidence that the sudden discharge of water from a North Korean dam which killed six southerners was a deliberate attack.

“We have no solid information to say the discharge was for a water attack,” Kim Tae-Young, appointed defence minister on September 3, said in a report to parliament.

He said the dam’s floodgates were opened after it was full of water.

The report tallies with accounts by the North, which said a sudden surge in the dam’s water level prompted an “emergency” release. Seoul officials had previously questioned the explanation of the incident which has strained cross-border relations.

In a related development Thursday, North Korea accepted a protest letter sent by South Korea’s parliament speaker Kim Hyong-O to his northern counterpart, Choe Thae-Bok, calling for a “sincere” apology from its neighbour and a full explanation.

He also suggested that Pyongyang should allow South Korean lawmakers to visit the site for an investigation. There was no immediate response from the communist country.

UPDATE 2 (2009-9-12): North Korean soldiers scouted the Imjin area before the water release.  According to the AFP:

North Korean soldiers scouted the inter-Korean border a day before the North released millions of tonnes of water from a dam, killing six South Koreans, news reports said on Saturday.

Military officials have told legislators that about 10 North Korean soldiers left their observation post and came south close to the military demarcation line dividing the two countries, Yonhap news agency said.

“They reconnoitred the area for about two hours before they returned to the North,” a lawmaker told Yonhap.

UPDATE 1 (2009-9-10): According to Yonhap, South Korean  Unification Minister Hyun In-taek said the incident appears to have been deliberate, although it was still not clear whether it was a “water attack.”  South Korea said Thursday that it will soon decide whether to take legal action against North Korea for its unleashing of water from the dam.

ORIGINAL POST (2009-9-8): Several innocent North and South Koreans were tragically drowned this week along the banks of the Imjin River when the DPRK released approximately 40 million tons of water from its Hwanggang Dam.

According to Yonhap:

The Hwanggang Dam, some 40km north of the border, was reportedly completed in 2007 and can hold up to 400 million tons of water. More than 340mm of rain fell on the region in late August, according to the North’s state television.

The victims were about 25km south of the border when the floodwaters came.

South Korea’s alert system was also faulted. The military detected rising water levels but failed to notify the local government, leaving the campers unattended. Flood alert equipment along the riverside also failed to operate.

The Koreas have no formal accord on controlling the floodgates. Seoul has asked for pre-notification at inter-Korean talks in recent years but the two sides have not been able to settle on technical procedures.

There have been no consultations on the matter since the conservative Lee Myung-bak government came to power in Seoul last year.

If Yonhap and the BBC are correct, this is the Hwanggang Dam’s location (Google Maps). The satellite imagery is old.  More interestingly, there is another dam on the Imjin River just above the DMZ.  It is here. This adds an interesting wrinkle to the story. This means that either the second dam down river from the Hwanggang Dam was either overrun or it was also opened.

According to Reuters:

South Africa’s arms control body has authorised an arms exhibit for North Korea and the possible sale of weapons to Iran, Syria and Libya which should be investigated, the main opposition party said on Tuesday.

The Democratic Alliance said a number of “dodgy” deals had “slipped through the cracks” when South Africa’s National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) last met in 2008.

David Maynier, a Democratic Alliance MP and shadow defence minister, said the NCACC had authorised a marketing permit for a South African-based company in the past three years to demonstrate and exhibit military support equipment for North Korea.

“The military support equipment was radar warning receivers used on antennae for submarines,” he told Reuters. Maynier declined to name the company but said it had exhibited the equipment “within the last three years”.

The NCACC was set up in 1995 to ensure arms trade and transfer policies conformed to internationally-accepted practices.

Maynier urged South African Justice Minister Jeff Radebe, the new head of the NCACC, to urgently investigate the alleged arms transactions with North Korea and other states.

Neither Radebe’s spokesman nor the official government spokesman were immediately available for comment.

Read the full article below:
South Africa arms body allows North Korea exhibit
Reuters
8/5/2009

According to Yohap:

South Korea authorized state funding for 10 North Korea aid organizations Monday, resuming humanitarian operations that had been frozen since the North conducted nuclear and rocket tests.

But the rare softening move toward Pyongyang drew mixed reactions among aid organizations in Seoul, as 3.57 billion won (US$2.92 million) worth of funding will go to less than a quarter of 47 applicants. Some called the selection “arbitrary” and vowed to boycott it.

“The government selected projects that are aimed at helping disadvantaged groups like toddlers and infants, mothers and the disabled on grounds that they contribute to the people’s livelihoods, their urgency and effects,” the Unification Ministry said in a statement.

The funding shrank considerably from last year, when the ministry spent more than 10 billion won for 40 aid groups. Spending cuts in other North Korea projects were also evident, as South Korea executed only 2.8 percent of its yearly budget for economic and humanitarian aid to North Korea during the first half of this year, or 42.42 billion won out of 1.5 trillion won. Seoul officials cite international sanctions over North Korea’s nuclear and missile activity and the protracted stalemate in inter-Korean relations as reasons for the hardening aid policy.

An umbrella group of 56 Seoul-based aid organizations, the Korea NGO Council for Cooperation with North Korea, called an emergency meeting and vowed not to accept the funding unless its selection criteria is fully explained. Secretive selection only fuels internal rifts and rivalry, it said.

“This decision will only drive our aid projects, which continued cooperatively for nearly 10 years, to division and competition. I wonder if this arbitrary selection is a way of taming non-governmental organizations,” Park Hyun-seok from Rose Club Korea, a Christian group focused on medical aid, said in an emergency meeting between aid groups. Rose Club lost its bid for funding.

But signs of a rift emerged among the aid organizations, as some cited the urgency of their stalled missions in the North. Kang Young-shik of the Korean Sharing Movement, which emerged as one of the major beneficiaries with 540 million won in funding, said his organization will accept the money, as the umbrella organization has no binding force over its members.

“It is for each organization to decide. And we believe this fund should be released if there isn’t more expected anytime soon,” Kang said.

In a unanimous call, the aid groups urged the government to lift a ban on humanitarian aid shipments and to stop monitoring trips to North Korea, actions put in place after the North’s nuclear test in May. The restrictions have prevented not only aid from state coffers, but also private donations, from reaching North Koreans.

Sue Kinsler, a Korean-American and head of the Lighthouse Foundation, which helps orphans and the disabled in the North, said the living conditions there have notably deteriorated, with bread factories running short of flour and children wearing the same clothes her organization sent last year.

“We also wanted to bring underwear and some clothes for the children, but we were told those items are not allowed,” Kinsler, who visited North Korea last week with 18 tons of flour, soybeans, sugar and vegetable oil, said. “I saw with my eyes they are experiencing serious food shortages in the midst of the international sanctions.”

Kim Nam-sik, director general of the ministry’s Inter-Korean Exchanges and Cooperation Bureau who attended the aid groups’ meeting, said the government will consider expanding humanitarian aid and cross-border visits, but its efforts are limited by larger international circumstances. While U.N. financial and other sanctions are in place to curb the communist state’s nuclear and missile activity, the government cannot go against the international trend, he said.

Here is a previous post on South Korean aid to the DPRK this year.

Trade between the Koreas has also floundered this year.

Read the full artilce here:
Selective gov’t funding for N. Korea aid groups causes division, discontent
Yonhap
Kim Hyun
8/3/2009

According to Yonhap:

A South Korean automaker operating in North Korea said Wednesday it has posted its first net profit and remitted part of it home, the first southbound money transfer by an inter-Korean venture.

Pyeonghwa Motors Corp. made a net profit of US$700,000 for the fiscal year ending in February and sent $500,000 to its headquarters in Seoul via a bank account in Hong Kong, its spokesman Roh Byoung-chun said.

The automaker began production in 2002 as a joint venture between North Korea and the Unification Church of South Korean Rev. Moon Sun-myung, who was born in the North. Its plant in Pyongyang produces sedans and small buses with some 340 employees, and its customers are mostly local businesses.

Roh said it took a while for North Korea to approve the remittance, which was made through a South Korean lender, Woori Bank, in Hong Kong in late May.

“For North Korea, $500,000 is a large sum of money. It is not used to the capitalist idea of making investments and retrieving profits. We believe they pondered deeply before giving approval,” he said.

Pyeonghwa sold 652 units last year, while North Korea took $200,000 for its 30 percent share in the venture, he said. The company says profits are picking up, with this year’s sales already surpassing 740.

North Korea’s own automaker, Sungri Motor, was established in 1958 and mostly produces cargo trucks.

Pyeonghwa’s production is not influenced by political tensions or South Korea’s ban on cross-border shipments, he said, as raw materials and parts are imported from Europe and China. The ban was enforced after North’s rocket launch in April, with the exception of goods going to a joint industrial complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong, where 109 South Korean small firms operate.

“The remittance is symbolic. They are having a hard time in Kaesong, and many went bankrupt in Mount Kumgang (the North Korean tourist resort),” Roh said. “We hope this can bring hope to people doing business in North Korea that anyone can go there and can bring back profits.”

Officials from the South Korean Unification Ministry said inbound money transfers from North Korea are not restricted, although outbound remittances are strictly monitored and prohibited in some cases. It is the first time a South Korean company has sent profits from sales in North Korea, they said. Other businesses investing in North Korea, including those operating in the Kaesong park, sell their goods in South Korea and elsewhere.

South Korea has put three North Korean firms, including a bank, on its blacklist under a U.N. resolution that bans financial transactions with North Korean entities suspected of aiding the country’s nuclear and missile development.

Read the full artilce below:
S. Korean automaker in Pyongyang sends first business profit home
Yonhap
Kim Hyun
7/15/2009

According to the Wall Street Journal:

The Pyeonghwa spokesman didn’t disclose revenue figures but said last year’s vehicle sales were just over twice the 2007 level. The company has already sold more cars this year, 742, and expects to sell more than 1,500 for the full year, the spokesman said.

The performance is the culmination of an 18-year effort that began when church founder Rev. Moon Sun-myung met North Korea’s then-ruler Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang to propose several business ventures. In 1999, the church spent $55 million to build the auto factory in the port city of Nampo, on North Korea’s west coast. The Unification Church, based in South Korea, has a number of investments in tourism, construction and trade.

Since completing the factory in 2002, Pyeonghwa has imported partially built cars, in a form called knockdown kits, from manufacturers such as Italy’s Fiat SpA and China’s Brilliance Automotive Holdings Ltd.

Pyeonghwa completes the cars and puts its own nameplate and brand names on them. In 2003, its first full year of operation, the company sold 316 cars.

North Korea’s government is a partner in the company and took about 30% of the profit.

When it first started production, the company touted North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il’s role in naming several cars. One sport-utility vehicle, built from the design of Fiat’s Doblo model, was named by Mr. Kim as the Ppeokkugi, or Cuckoo.

Pyeonghwa, like other companies that do business in North Korea, faced enormous difficulty moving its money out of the country. Many Chinese businesses resort to buying commodities in North Korea with their profits, then exporting them to China to be sold for Chinese currency.

The motor company worked from February to May to move its money from North Korea, seeking permission from the North’s central bank, the spokesman said.

Read the full article below:
Pyeonghwa Sells in North Korea
Wall Street Journal
Sungha Park
7/16/2009

Read other Pyonghwa stories here.

Here is the location of Pyonghwa’s factory near Nampo.

According to Yonhap:

Seoul will stiffen control of South Korean goods going into North Korea, mostly banning luxury items such as wine and fur, the Unification Ministry said Thursday.

The restrictions, to take effect as of Friday, are in accordance with U.N. Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1874 adopted after North Korea’s second nuclear test on May 25. The resolution prohibits weapons trade with Pyongyang and calls on member states to tighten the sanctions imposed on Pyongyang after its first nuclear test in October 2006. The earlier UNSC resolution bars exports of luxury goods to the North.

The ministry said it will require prior authorization for South Koreans carrying in items from 13 categories including liquor, cosmetics, jewelry, fur products and automobiles.

The government will allow exceptions for South Korean government and business officials who carry in the listed items during travel between the two Koreas on official duty or for personal use during their stay in the North, ministry officials said.

“The government’s approval will depend upon whether it believes the goods will be used by South Koreans or given to North Koreans,” an official said.

Read the full story here:
Seoul to enforce new restrictions on goods going into N. Korea
Yonhap
Tony Chang
7/9/2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-6-16-1
6/16/2009

The amount of inter-Korean exchange has shrunk considerably this year, as tensions between the North and South continue to mount. According to the ROK Customs Administration’s inter-Korean trade office, cross-border transactions between January and April of this year fell 24.8 percent from 2008; trade amounted to 426.35 million USD, down from 566.92 million USD during the same period last year. South Korean imports were down only 9.5 percent, at 260.19 million USD, but exports to the North amounted to a mere 59.4 percent of the amount sent last year, recording 166.17 million USD. 54.9 percent of these goods (by value) traveled across the border by passing through Dorasan Station; 32.8 percent went through Incheon Harbor; 6.4 percent through Busan Harbor, 1.6 percent through Sokcho Harbor; and 1.1 percent passing through Goseong.

In April, with the North’s launch of a long-range missile in spite of the opposition of the international community, inter-Korean trade dropped to 69.2 percent of last year’s level, falling to 105.53 million USD. In fact, inter-Korean trade fell relative to the same month in the previous year eight months straight, beginning in September of last year.

With last month’s sudden nuclear test and South Korea’s subsequent joining of PSI, inter-Korean trade is expected to continue to wither in the latter half of the year. The amount of trade seen from January to April of this year is equivalent to 23.4 percent of the total trade for last year (1.82078 billion USD), and even if the current level of trade is maintained for the rest of the year, it is expected to amount to a mere 70 percent of what was traded in 2008.

Inter-Korean trade had previously been recording significant growth; in 1999, during Kim Dae Jung’s ‘People’s Government’, inter-Korean trade was worth only 328.65 million USD, but began to climb, growing more than five-fold by 2008, topping out at 1.82078 billion USD last year. However, after the launch of the current government, the amount of goods imported by the North from the South began to fall; exports to North Korea in 2008 were worth 883.41 USD, 145.15 million less than in 2007.

North Korean companies involved in processing-on-demand, agriculture and fisheries work have been part of Pyongyang’s trade ambitions, and these companies have also been hurt by the freeze in inter-Korean relations, with dozens of businesses facing closure, and many more severely hit by the North’s shrinking trade.

According to Yonhap:

Trade between South and North Korea plunged nearly 25 percent in the first four months of this year amid growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, a report showed Tuesday.

Inter-Korean trade amounted to US$426.35 million during the January-April period, down 24.8 percent from $566.92 million a year earlier, according to the report by the Korea Customs Service.

The decline comes as tensions mounted after North Korea fired a rocket on April 5, prompting the U.N. Security Council to unanimously condemn the move. The North responded by kicking out outside nuclear inspectors and quitting six-party denuclearization talks.

Trade between the two Koreas, which amounted to $328.65 million in 1999, surged more than five-fold to $1.79 billion in 2007 when leaders from the two sides met for the second time. Last year, trade inched up to $1.82 billion.

Experts say that trade is expected to fall further in months to come as tensions are still running high after the North conducted its second nuclear test last month in defiance of repeated warnings by the international community and recently sentenced two U.S. journalists to 12 years in a labor camp for illegally entering the country.

In addition, we pointed out earlier this month that the South Korean government had barely touched the funds it appropriated for inter-Korean projects in 2009.

Finally, although inter-Korean trade has floundered this year, the DPRK’s trade volume reached a record US$3.8 billion in 2008, due largely to its trade with China.  

Read the full Yonhap story here:
Inter-Korean trade tumbles amid growing tensions
Yonhap
Koh Byung-joon
6/9/2009

Earlier this year the UN Security Council issued a Presidential Statement in response to the DPRK’s April rocket (missile) test. In the Presidential Statement, three North Korean firms were blacklisted–Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation, Tanchon Commercial Bank, and Korea Ryongbong General Corporation–all of whom are suspected of having ties with the North’s missile and nuclear programs.

According to Yonhap, the South Korean government has also blacklisted these firms, though no South Korean firms have realtions with any of them:

This is the first time that South Korea has imposed financial sanctions on a North Korean company in relation to Pyongyang’s ballistic activity, the ministry said.

The ministry said that it will consider taking additional measures if the U.N. comes up with separate actions against the North for conducting its second nuclear test on May 25.

Read the full sotry here:
Seoul slaps sanctions on N. Korean firms for missile test
Yonhap
Koh Byung-joon
6/9/2009