North Korean Economy Watch

According to the Associated Press (via the Washington Post):

North Koreans are getting better medical treatment as the result of a joint program between the two Koreas that has trained thousands of doctors, provided modern equipment and renovated hospitals, the World Health Organization said Thursday.

Maternal mortality has declined by over 20 percent since 2005, and diarrhea cases and deaths in operations have also dropped, said Dr. Eric Laroche.

The World Health Organization has helped in the wide-ranging program, which started in 2006 and is funded by South Korea. It has cost a total of $30.2 million so far.

The program has trained more than 6,000 doctors and nurses in emergency obstetric care, newborn care and child illnesses, said Laroche, who assessed its progress in a four-day visit to North Korea.

The specialization marks a change in health strategy in North Korea, which has about 90,000 family doctors who care for about 130 families each, according to Laroche.

“They know each family one by one,” he said. But, he added, “they’re extremely keen to be trained.”

…

Laroche said hospital staff have been trained in hygiene and clinics have received better material for operations, blood transplants and other medical interventions.

Numerous hospitals have been renovated, and material has also been distributed to 1,200 rural clinics.

Between 2007 and 2009, the number of patients dying in operations fell 73.4 percent, said Laroche, citing a study by the University of Melbourne.

He declined to give an overall view of the health system in the isolated communist nation. But he said services were well-spread among cities and communities.

Read the full article here:
WHO: Korean cooperation boosting health in north
Associated Press (via Washington Post)
Elaine Engler
3/4/2010

Choson Ilbo
2/26/2010

North Korea is still demanding rice and fertilizer in return for an inter-Korean summit, even as it keeps sending increasingly urgent messages to Seoul to bring such a summit about.

Since a secret meeting between South Korean Labor Minister Yim Tae-hee and Kim Yang-gon, the director of the North Korean Workers’ Party’s United Front Department, in Singapore in October, “North Korea has kept asking us for a huge amount of economic aid in return for arranging a meeting” between President Lee Myung-bak and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, a South Korean government source said on Thursday.

But the North seems to have no interest in giving in to South Korean demands to put denuclearization and the repatriation of prisoners of war and abduction victims on the summit agenda. “The North basically wants economic gain in return for letting us make political use of an inter-Korean summit for the upcoming local elections” on June 2, the source said. “It seems that the North still feels nostalgic for the Sunshine Policy,” which netted it huge benefits over the past decade.

The first inter-Korean summit in 2000 was announced only three days before the general election and was bought through a secret payment of billions of won. The second summit in 2007 was announced two months before the presidential election. Since 2000, the North has received more than 300,000 tons of rice and the same amount of fertilizer almost every year worth more than W1 trillion (US$1=W1,163) a year.

In another secret meeting between South Korea’s Unification Ministry and the North Korean Workers’ Party’s United Front Department in November, the North again insisted on specifying humanitarian aid in an agreement to be signed at an inter-Korean summit.

A “tree planting campaign for North Korea” initiated recently by the Presidential Committee on Social Cohesion also reportedly went awry because the North demanded a huge aid of food in return for letting South Korea plant trees there.

Kim Jong-il is apparently not aware that Seoul is serious about ending this cash-for-summits policy. A South Korean government official with experience in inter-Korean talks said, “At secret meetings, each side often had its own way of interpreting agendas. Maybe North Korean delegates who are accustomed to the Sunshine Policy are trying to interpret the current government’s messages the way they did with past governments.”

It seems the North has attempted to earn economic aid worth W1 trillion by prevaricating over the issue of the POWs and abduction victims, offering to handle it like part of reunions of separated families, and discussing the nuclear issue only with the U.S. 

Whether the attitude will change remains to be seen. The North is now in a worse economic situation than before in the wake of a recent disastrous currency reform on top of international sanctions and a severe food shortage.

Prof. Cho Young-ki of Korea University said, “The North is in dire need of support from the outside including South Korea to stabilize the regime for a smooth transition of power” to Kim’s son Jong-un. “It is possible that the North will reluctantly accept our request depending on progress in the six-party nuclear talks.”

The government believes that a dramatic turning point in inter-Korean relations could be reached if the North makes “big decisions” in the nuclear or POW issues, according to Kim Tae-hyo, the presidential secretary for foreign strategies.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 10-2-25-1
2/25/2010

Inter-Korean trade, in which South Korea recorded surpluses throughout the Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun administrations, has now fallen into the red under the current government.

According to customs statistics released on February 25, Seoul ran a trade deficit with North Korea under the Kim Young Sam administration until 1997, then was in the black through the Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun administrations, almost until the end of 2007. Seoul has fallen back into the red, however, during the last two years of the current government. In other words, the People’s Government (under Kim Dae Jung) and the Participatory Government (under Roh Moo Hyun) exported more to the North than they imported, while this trend has now been reversed under Lee Myung-bak.

South Korea’s surplus in inter-Korean trade grew 11-fold from 37.9 million USD in 1998 to 417.7 million USD by 2005, then fell to 262.2 million USD in 2007. This trend occurred because exports grew at a much quicker rate than imports, from 128.9 million USD in 1998 to 1.0286 billion USD by 2007. However, as the current administration came into power, inter-Korean trade statistics dropped in to the red, with a 54 million USD deficit in 2008 and a 200.9 million USD deficit last year.

South Korean exports to the North grew considerably from the time of the People’s Government until 2008, but have fallen considerably over the past two years. In 2008, exports to North Korea amounted to 883.4 million USD, down 14.1 percent from the previous year. Last year, exports fell another 17.1 percent, to 732.6 million USD.

Last year, electrical products made up the majority of exports, at 24.8 percent (182 million USD). Following electrical products were short, synthetic ‘staple fiber’ (160 million USD) and cotton fabrics (67 million USD), followed by computers and other electronic devices (60 million USD).

On the other hand, clothing (390 million USD), fish (131 million USD), and electrical goods (122 million USD) were the top three imports. While South Korea is in the red, overall trade continues to grow, despite the international financial difficulties. This growth is driven largely by processing-on-commission manufacturing and products from the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

[NkeconWatch: I have a personal probelm with the way “the media” generally reports trade deficits as if they are somehow equivalent or comparable to budget deficits.  They are not.  Additionally, bilateral comparisons of trade deficits are silly. Bilateral comparisons are usually published by someone seeking to generate some kind of political response, but really they don’t tell you anything about what is going on in the economies of the countries involved.] 

According to Yonhap:

South Korea said Tuesday it will send 1 billion won (US$866,000) worth of hand sanitizer next week to North Korea to help the impoverished neighbor combat the spread of the H1N1 flu virus.

The shipment of 200,000 liters of sanitizer, scheduled for next Monday, comes after South Korea delivered some $15 million in anti-viral medications to the North in December in the first state-level cross-border humanitarian aid in nearly two years.

North Korea first acknowledged cases of Influenza A virus infection on Dec. 9, but it has yet to report any flu-related deaths.

The hand sanitizer will be transported to the North Korean border town of Kaesong on South Korean trucks across the military demarcation line and handed to the North there, Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said.

“North Korea agreed to accept the aid on Feb. 22,” he told reporters, adding about 20 25-ton trucks will likely be mobilized to deliver the aid.

The Tamiflu aid in December marked the first humanitarian assistance provided by the South Korean government to North Korea since conservative President Lee Myung-bak took office in Seoul in early 2008. Lee cut off the unconditional aid that his liberal predecessors had shipped to the North over the past decade, conditioning exchanges on progress in the North’s denuclearization.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea to deliver anti-viral sanitizer to N. Korea next week
Yonhap
2/16/010

UPDATE: The shipment has been delivered

SKorea sends 2nd batch of swine flu aid to NKorea
AP via Business Week
2/23/2010

South Korean trucks have crossed the border into North Korea to deliver a second batch of swine flu aid.

Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo says South Korea sent 52,840 gallons (200,000 liters) of hand sanitizers to North Korea on Tuesday.

South Korea sent enough doses of the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza for 500,000 North Koreans in December in its first direct humanitarian aid to the communist country in nearly two years. North and South Korea have remained in a state of war since 1953.

North Korea acknowledged in December that swine flu had broken out in the country though hasn’t mentioned any virus-related deaths.

Tamiflu is made by Switzerland’s Roche Group. Relenza is a procuct of GlaxoSmithKline.

According to Yonhap:

South Korea has frozen its annual budget for supporting activities to improve human rights in North Korea this year, though the amount is far higher than what the nation’s human rights body had requested, a state panel said Tuesday.

The National Human Rights Commission of Korea (NHRCK) said the overall budget for its activities in 12 categories was cut by 5.38 percent on-year to 4.63 billion won (US$4 million) for the 2010 fiscal year. Funding for research into North Korean defectors and human rights conditions in the socialist state remained unchanged, however, at 331 million won, the independent commission said.

The North Korea-related budget is far larger than 140 million won that the commission initially asked for, indicating that the government is putting an emphasis on the issues.

The North Korea budget will be used to fund local and overseas surveys of defectors from the North and human rights conditions there, as well as to host an international symposium and domestic forums, and to publish and purchase books.

Last week, a parliamentary committee on foreign affairs endorsed a bill calling for the improvement of human rights conditions in the North. If enacted, the bill would be the first of its kind in South Korea. Officials at Seoul’s Unification Ministry in charge of relations with the North said the legislation efforts are “in line with the government’s direction.”

President Lee Myung-bak, who took office about a year ago, has vowed efforts to improve North Korean human rights, breaking away from the policies of his two liberal predecessors who refrained from such moves over concerns about relations with the North.

Read the full story here:
Seoul effectively increases budget for N.K. human rights
Yonhap
2/16/2010

According to Yonhap:

South Korea’s new ambassador to Russia said on Wednesday that he is committed to implementing the envisioned South Korea-North Korea-Russia natural gas pipeline.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed at their 2008 summit in Moscow to cooperate on building a tripartite gas pipeline involving North Korea. But the agreement has yet to be realized, as Pyongyang has failed to respond amid chilly inter-Korean relations.

Ambassador Lee Youn-ho, who accompanied President Lee on the Russian trip in his capacity as knowledge economy minister, said that the three-nation gas pipeline project, if realized, will be very meaningful “economically and politically.”

“If the South Korea-Russia gas pipeline can pass through North Korea, it can be linked to the construction of electric power and railway networks (in North Korea),” said Ambassador Lee.

Lee then called for significant improvement of ties between South Korea and Russia, claiming the two are now more ready and fit than ever to forge a relationship that will be mutually beneficial.

You can read past posts about the Russia-Korea gas pipeline here. 

Read the full article here:
Seoul’s new envoy to Russia vows to speed up gas pipeline project
Yonhap
Byun Duk-kun
2/10/2010

Northeast Asia Matters posted a very helpful background paper on the Tumen Area Economic Development Project. According to Northeast Asia Matters:

Many in Northeast Asia wish to see the Tumen Basin develop into a place for economic cooperation and competition. One such plan is the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI), formerly known as Tumen River Area Development Project (TRADP), being carried out under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The 20-year 80 billion USD plan calls for the creation of port facilities and transportation infrastructure in the region to support a multinational trading hub. Countries participating in the GTI are China, Mongolia, North Korea, Russia and South Korea.

The goal of GTI is to make the area into a free economic zone for trade to prosper and attract investment into the area. For China, the project would give traders in Northeast China easier access to major international ports without having to circumnavigate the Korean Peninsula and thus stimulating growth in China’s northeast rustbelt. For Russia, the project would give the ability to better exploit resources in Siberia and allow easier access to North Korea’s resource-rich hinterland; the area just to the south of the Tumen contains reserves of oil, minerals, coal, timber, and abundant farmland.

Development of the Tumen River area and North Korea’s participation in this project means inflow of hard foreign currency, improvements in infrastructure, and possible increase in industrial capacity. North Korea, with its bleak economy, therefore, will most likely continue to support the development of Tumen River area and increase its future involvement in the project as it seeks to break the economic isolation and hardship it has suffered since the collapse of most of its communist allies and the implementation of international sanctions.

Read the full paper here.

According to the AFP:

A South Korean company said Tuesday it is planning a joint-venture factory in a free-trade zone in northeastern North Korea, the first such investment by Seoul in the faltering project.

Food processor Merry Co said Pyongyang last month approved its partnership with state-run Korea Gaeson General Trading Corp in the Rason zone near the North’s border with China and Russia.

“We’re going to have a first joint venture between the two Koreas in Rason,” Merry president Chung Han-Gi told AFP.

The North this month upgraded the status of the zone in an attempt to invigorate anaemic foreign investment there.

Chung said his company would invest 60 percent of the 7.5 million dollar cost of the new plant while its North Korean partner would put in 40 percent.

He said he would this week ask the South’s unification ministry, which must authorise all cross-border contacts, to approve the joint venture.

The communist state designated the Rajin-Sonbong Economic Special Zone — later renamed Rason — in 1991, its first such project. But little foreign investment materialised and senior officials who headed the project were reportedly sacked.

In recent years the North has begun trying to revive it, signing an accord with Russia to rebuild railways and the port there. China has also been exploring investment opportunities in the city.

The North’s leader Kim Jong-Il paid his first visit to the zone last month and state media said later that parliament has designated Rason as a municipality to upgrade its status.

South and North Korea have a joint-venture industrial estate at Kaesong near their border. Its operations have often been hit by political tensions, but the two sides were to start talks Tuesday on ways to develop it.

Chung said his firm’s joint venture at Rason, which would have some 200 North Korean employees, plans to produce canned and processed food including tuna for exports.

Merry, which also has a factory in Shanghai, will send Chinese engineers to Rason next month to install production facilities.

The Choson Ilbo adds some interesting details:

This is the first time that Pyongyang has allowed for direct business collaboration, set to take place between North Korea’s Gaeson General Company and the South’s Chilbosan Merry Joint Venture.

The firms are slated to split investment 60/40 and will work together to process and export canned marine and agricultural products starting in March.

UPDATE 1: As reader Gag Halfron points out, this is not the first DPRK-RoK joint Venture. Remember Pyonghwa Motors and Pyongyang’s fried chicken restaurant?

UPDATE 2: In the comments, Werner notes the following: http://www1.korea-np.co.jp/pk/149th_issue/2000101405.htm

Read the full articles below:
N.Korea OKs joint venture with South in trade zone
AFP
1/18/2009

First Inter-Korean Joint Venture to Be Established
Choson Ilbo
1/20/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-01-19-1
2010-01-19

Last year, despite the impact of the economic recession, North Korea’s second nuclear test and other issues hindering inter-Korean exchanges, the previously sharply shrinking value of North-South Korean trade appeared to steady.

According to a report from the South Korean Customs Administration released on January 18, inter-Korean trade last year was down 8.5 percent from the previous year, amounting to 1.66608 billion USD. Exports to North Korea were worth 732.62 million USD, while 933.46 million USD worth of goods were brought into South Korea, giving Seoul a 200 million dollar trade deficit. Inter-Korean trade hit its lowest point last year in February (100.89 million USD), but since then showed slow-but-steady growth, hitting 173.18 in September.

In the aftermath of last year’s economic recession, together with the North Korean nuclear test, naval clashes in the West Sea in the area of the Northern Limit Line, etc., there were many difficult issues in 2009, but as inter-Korean trade numbers recovered in the fourth quarter, tensions eased slightly. Despite strained political tensions between the two Koreas, trade seemed not to be seriously affected, as DPRK goods were offloaded from a North Korean ship at Incheon Harbor and replaced with silica used for metal casting just six days after a clash between North and South Korean naval ships.

While growing trade is positive, this is the second year in a row South Korea has recorded a trade deficit with the North. In 2008, Seoul’s cross-border imports exceeded imports by 53.96 million USD. With Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008 and the economic stagnation that followed, the South continued to record trade deficits for 15 straight months, until November of last year.

In December 2009, South Korean trade was back in the black (23.91 million USD) for the first time in 16 months. Looking back over time, it can be seen that inter-Korean trade has improved considerably over the years, recording a mere 705.68 million USD in 2004, 1.08872 billion USD in 2005, climbing to 1.3796 billion in 2006 and 1.79494 billion USD in 2007, and 1.82078 billion USD in 2008.

The import of North Korean sand, mushrooms, and smokeless charcoal briquettes in October 2009 required the permission of the South Korean government. This reflects Seoul’s more strict controls over management and oversight of inter-Korean trade following the sanctions and heightened concerns over cash deliveries to Pyongyang after its second nuclear test on May 25, 2009. Since the nuclear test, the South Korean government has limited the import of North Korean goods to only those that could ease losses being suffered by South Korean manufacturers.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Unification, among North Korean exports to the South in 2008, sand was the largest (according to value) export, with charcoal ranking ninth and (pine) mushrooms ranking eighteenth. 

Yonhap offered a short blurb: 

Trade between South and North Korea declined 8.5 percent on-year in 2009 due mainly to the worldwide economic slowdown that sapped demand and investments, a government report said Monday.

The Korea Customs Service (KCS) said inter-Korean trade reached US$1.66 billion last year, down from a record high of $1.82 billion tallied for 2008.

Read the full article here:
Inter-Korean trade falls off 8.5 pct in 2009
Yonhap
1/18/2009

According to KBS (h/t RoK Drop):

The number of North Koreans who fled to South Korea in 2009 is known to be close to three-thousand.

A Ministry of Unification official said more than 2,200 women and almost 680 men from North Korea entered South Korea in 2009, totaling more than 2,950 in a preliminary tally.

The official added that this makes the cumulative number of North Korean escapees total approximately 18-thousand, which is almost certain to surpass 20-thousand in 2010.

Soms interesting supplementary information was posted at Yonhap:

The number of North Korean defectors hiding in China is estimated to have shrunken in recent years to almost one tenth the level seen in the late 1990’s, a U.S. demographer said Thursday.

The assessment is a controversial but important factor in shedding light on the conditions of those North Koreans who live in China. The defectors live under the constant fear of deportation because their country considers defection a capital crime.

Activists and relief groups say tens of thousands of North Korean defectors live in China, but Dr. Courtland Robinson at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health said the number may have dropped to between 6,000 and 16,000 as of 2007.

“About a decade ago, people were literally being starved to death and fleeing to China,” Robinson said in an interview, putting the 1998 figure between 50,000 and 130,000. Famine had reportedly killed as many as 2 million people in North Korea in the mid-1990s.

An official at South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which handles affairs involving North Korea, said he could not support the figures given by either activists or Robinson, arguing it was impossible to determine the exact number of those defectors in hiding.

Robinson, speaking on the sidelines of a conference on North Korean defectors in Seoul, said he had turned to local residents in China as informants to assess the number of defectors living in their towns. He then applied demographic methods to come up with what he called “plausible ranges” of a population.

“The very essence of these measurements is to start selecting sites randomly, not sites where you think North Koreans may be living,” he said.

“It’s a combination of things that has contributed to the decrease. Tightened border security on both sides is one,” Robinson said. “Defectors have also evolved in terms of their understanding of how difficult it is to live in China.”

China reportedly stepped up its crackdown on North Korean defectors ahead of its hosting of the Summer Olympics in August 2008. Under a treaty forged in 1998, China is believed to arrest and repatriate North Korean defectors even though they could face imprisonment, torture and even execution.

Chinese residents are reportedly rewarded with cash if they report North Korean defectors, who find it difficult to hide their identities or get a job because they can’t speak Chinese.

Robinson said defectors have apparently accelerated the pace at which they “move on through China,” heading to countries such as Thailand where it is deemed safer or easier to go to South Korea.

Over 16,000 North Koreans have come to South Korea since the 1950-53 Korean War that ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty. The annual number of defectors is increasing year by year and the Unification Ministry expects the accumulated figure to top 20,000 this year.