North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 1 (2011-8-10): Wages of North Korean workers in Kaesong Industrial Complex set to rise 5% for the fifth consecutive year. According to the Institute for Far Easter Studies (IFES):

The minimum wage for North Korean workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) has risen annually at a rate of 5 percent since 2007. The year 2011 stands to mark the fifth consecutive year that such an increase has occurred.

Recently, the steering committee for the KIC and South Korean and North Korean authorities reached an agreement to accept a 5 percent wage hike for North Korean workers at the complex. Accordingly, as of August 1, 2011, North Korean workers at the KIC should earn USD 63.814 rather than USD 60.775 in monthly wages. South Korean authorities, as an exchange for accepting the North Korean demand for a wage increase, requested that productivity be elevated via the adoption of a more efficient method of worker placement.

At the meeting, the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee, representatives of companies in the complex, and the head of corporations were in attendance and reached an agreement to form a task force specifically for the improvement of productivity of workers. While the overall output of the KIC has increased, the output per worker has not improved, leading to the decision to establish the task force, with the goal of enhancing the competitiveness of the complex.

The minimum monthly income of USD 60.775, which kicked in last August, remained in effect until July 31 of this year. The Labor Law of the KIC caps the wage increase at 5 percent; a 5 percent increase to the minimum wage this year would elevate the minimum monthly wage for workers to USD 63.814.

At the meeting, North Korea mentioned international wage levels and made demands for a wage hike of more than the upper limit. However, most of the companies that operate in the KIC adamantly oppose such demands.

Despite the May 24 sanctions implemented by the South Korean government after the March 2010 sinking of the ROK navy corvette Cheonan, the growth of the KIC has continued. The trade volume has increased by 24.23 percent while the production output has increased by 26.1 percent compared to the same period last year.

Although the eight-year old Kaesong Industrial Complex boasts its competitiveness against other industrial complexes in China and Vietnam, it still has many challenges that must be resolved, including employment flexibility and incentive system.

From the institutional perspective, there are many tax benefits that Kaesong offers that industrial complexes in China and Vietnam do not. For example, the enterprise profit tax in Kaesong is at 14 percent. In contrast, China and Vietnam abolished the preferential treatment for foreign companies in 2008 and 2009, respectively; they currently apply a 25 percent of enterprise profit tax to both domestic and foreign companies. Even in terms of labor and wages, the KIC would appear to offer better quality of labor. In addition, the labor productivity of the KIC is comparable to 71 percent of South Korea, which is much higher than that of China’s Qingdao Industrial Complex (60 percent) and Vietnam’s Tanttueon Industrial Complex (40 percent).

Another advantage is the KIC’s favorable geographical proximity to South Korea, which helps reduce distribution costs and time. This advantage helps to reinforce the sales competiveness of the companies in the complex. In addition, the KIC has sufficient potential for expansion into markets in China, and domestic markets in South and North Korea.

On the other hand, Kaesong has relatively low flexibility of employment due to the principle of indirect recruitment. Difficulties in applying an incentive system are also a disadvantage of the KIC.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-7-15): Kaesong wages set to increase. According to Yonhap:

The minimum wage for workers at the inter-Korean industrial park in the North Korean border town of Kaesong is likely to rise 5 percent this year, the same annual rate of increase since 2007, industry sources said Friday.

More than 46,000 North Koreans work at about 120 South Korean firms operating in the complex, despite the South’s suspension of all other economic ties with the North over the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship last year. The local workers currently earn a minimum monthly income of US$60.775 following a 5 percent increase that took effect last August.

This year’s new minimum rate goes into effect next month after negotiations between the factory park’s management officials from the two sides. Under the park’s labor regulations, the minimum wage can increase only up to 5 percent from the previous year.

“The North Koreans are demanding an increase of more than the upper limit (of 5 percent), citing wage levels in other parts of the world,” said an official from one of the South Korean firms in Kaesong. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“In effect, this is equivalent to demanding a wage rise of 5 percent,” the official said, adding that the businesses operating in the joint industrial park had tentatively agreed to accept the demand. After the increase, the North Korean workers will earn $63.814 monthly.

Meanwhile, production at the industrial zone has continued to grow, according to recent data. The park’s output of clothes, utensils, watches and other goods rose 26.1 percent last year from 2009. Since its opening in 2004 under former liberal South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, the complex has served as a source of tens of millions of dollars for the cash-strapped North annually.

Read the full story here:
Minimum wage for N. Koreans in Kaesong likely to rise 5 pct
Yonhap
2011-7-15

Pictured above (Google Earth): Two official marketplaces in Kaesong highlighted in yellow.  South Korean treats are popular in these markets.

According to the Daily NK:

Shin Ramen (a brand of instant noodles), Choco-pies and coffee mix, the snacks offered to Kaesong Industrial Complex workers, leak out and are now very popular in the jangmadang in Kaesong, according to sources.

The news was revealed by a South Korea government official and a staff member from an enterprise in the Kaesong Complex on the 15th.

North Korean workers often ask their employers for Shin Ramen uncooked and packed so that they can sell it in the jangmadang to augment their wages, according to the Ministry of Unification.

One staff member from a company stationed in the Kaesong Industrial Complex explained, “The time when the North Korean workers are given Shin Ramen, Choco-pies and coffee mix is the time they look forward to the most.”

“I am aware that North Korean workers take the several ramen given to them at snack times or when doing evening overtime back into North Korea,” he added. “They sell the ramen they take for roughly the same price as a kilo of rice. But it is not just Shin Ramen; Choco-pies are very popular with the North Korean workers, and they also use Shin Ramen soup as a seasoning at home.”

Kaesong Industrial Complex companies are known to get assistance from domestic companies, so pay less than market price for the Shin Ramen and other snacks that they offer to workers.

The company staff member said he saw the situation in a positive light, explaining,, “There have been almost no inter-Korean exchanges of late, so in this situation the Shin Ramen and Choco-pies and other things offered by enterprises provide a link between the North Korean people and South Korea. If the workers take the Korean-made products and sell them in the jangmadang then not just the workers but also the North Korean people get to know about South Korea.”

Unfortunately, meanwhile, although workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex receive a wage of approximately $100/month, they are not free to keep it. 30% is taken by the North Korean authorities in the form of a ‘Socialist Culture Policy Tax’, and other costs are extracted as well. Therefore, the take-home pay is around $30/month, although even this is not paid in cash but in the form of an exchange coupon.

A Ministry of Unification explained one part of that system, saying, “Most of the money and other things that come from the South go to the central North Korean authorities, but a proportion goes to Kaesong city authorities. That money which goes to Kaesong City is meant to be for the purpose of buying rice for distribution to the local people.”

There are now approximately 46,000 North Korean workers in the Kaesong Complex, and complex operations are, as such, a $4.6 million monthly subsidy for the North Korean authorities.

Despite the measures put in place by the South Korean government following last year’s Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island incidents, the number of workers earning money in Kaesong has continued to expand. According to the Ministry of Unification, at the end of February there were 46,420 workers, an 11% increase on one year previously. Earnings have also risen significantly in the same period.

Donald Kirk was the first (of whom I am aware) to write about the subversive nature of Choco Pies back in May 2009.

Read the full story here:
Shin Ramen Popular in Kaesong Jangmadang
Daily NK
Kim Yong-hun
2011-7-15

According to Yonhap:

North Korea began discharging water from a dam near the border earlier this week without notifying South Korea, officials here said Wednesday.

Officials here in this Gyeonggi Province town, north of Seoul, said the North earlier this week opened the Hwanggang Dam near the Imjin River, which flows out to South Korea’s west coast, and has kept it open since.

“No damage has been reported around the Imjin River,” an official said. “We’re not concerned about (the water level of the river) yet.”

Officials said the water level on the Pilseung Bridge near the border, which serves as a gauge of North Korea’s water discharge, reached 4.49 meters as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, well over the warning level of 3 meters, and then fell to 4.03 meters at 4:20 p.m. Wednesday before inching back up to 4.04 meters by 5 p.m.

Officials said it usually takes 10 hours for water from the Hwanggang Dam to reach the Pilseung Bridge.

After the North Korean discharge, South Korea opened its Gunnam Dam to control the water level. The dam, which began operations last July, was specifically designed to capture flash floods from North Korea.

North Korea was hit by Typhoon Meari this week, officials added, suggesting that a sudden rise of the water level there might have forced the discharge.

It is the same dam that North Korea opened without prior notice in September 2009. The ensuing flash flood claimed six South Korean lives. At a later inter-Korean meeting on flood control, North Korea expressed regret over the incident and vowed to give prior notice before future discharges.

Last year, North Korea also sent water from the Hwanggang Dam and did notify officials here through the military communication line. The water near the Pilseung Bridge rose to 8.67 meters, but the Gunnam Dam helped prevent damage along the Imjin River.

An official said the local authorities were remaining on guard.

“The water level can surge suddenly,” a local official said. “In 2009, when six South Koreans were killed, the level on the Pilseung Bridge was 4.69 meters. So we’re closely monitoring the situation.”

Additional Information:
1. The South Korean government has also warned its people to be on the lookout for land mines that wash downstream from the DPRK.  See here and here.

2. Read about the 2009 Hwanggang Dam incident here.

3. Here is an older satellite image of the dam (Google Maps).

…by expanding the capacities of Hanawon.

According to Yonhap:

South Korea will build a new facility to accommodate a growing number of North Koreans fleeing poverty and political oppression from their communist homeland, an official said Wednesday.

The move is the latest reminder that the flow of North Korean defectors isn’t letting up despite Pyongyang’s harsh crackdown on escapees. Seoul is now home to more than 21,700 North Koreans.

South Korea has already been running two other resettlement centers, known as Hanawon near Seoul to help the defectors better adjust to life in the capitalist South.

Still, the government will break ground for another resettlement center in Hwacheon on July 7 as the two current facilities are running at full capacity, Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo told reporters.

The area is about 118 kilometers northeast of Seoul.

She also said the government is planning to offer re-education for former North Korean teachers, doctors and other experts in the new resettlement center to be built by the end of 2012.

The announcement comes amid the latest dispute between the two Koreas over nine North Koreans who defected to the South earlier this month.

Seoul has indicated it will not return the North Korean defectors despite the North’s request for repatriation. The North usually claims South Korea kidnaps its citizens, charges that Seoul denies.

Some defectors have criticized Hanawon.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea to build new resettlement facility for N. Korean defectors
Yonhap
2011-6-22

Yonhap has published a short article on the difficulties of analyzing North Korean trade data.  According to the article:

Data on North Korea’s trade with other countries is scarce, and there are stark contrasts in recent estimates from South Korea and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in terms of both volume and composition.

North Korea’s imports and exports, excluding those with South Korea, reached US$4.17 billion last year, according to a report published last month by the South’s state-run Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA). The North’s trade with China — its chief ally and benefactor — amounted to some $3.5 billion, or 83 percent of the reclusive state’s total trade with other countries, the report said. Inter-Korean trade, meanwhile, reached $1.91 billion in the same period.

The findings were based on an analysis of annual trade reports filed by countries that deal with North Korea, as Pyongyang does not provide its own economic data.

The IMF, however, estimates North Korea’s total trade volume at 5.91 billion euros ($8.39 billion) last year, about double KOTRA’s figure, according to a recent report by the Voice of America (VOA), which cites the European Commission. The IMF estimates North Korea’s trade with China at some $3.9 billion, which is similar to KOTRA’s estimate, but accounts for a much smaller proportion of the total volume at 46 percent.

These figures are also based on data from North Korea’s trade partners, but appear to include some of these countries’ exports and imports with South Korea, according to experts.

The IMF’s estimates may be affected by errors in distinguishing the North from the South, while KOTRA’s South Korean staff are able to filter out many of these mistakes, the experts said. The trade agency’s figure may also be smaller because it relies on official data from governments, while the IMF collects its material from a wide range of sources.

“We do not reflect figures that we do not see as normal trade, such as foreign aid or under-the-table transactions,” a KOTRA official said on the condition of anonymity.

Back in February, Marcus Noland had this to say about KOTRA trade statistics (in regards to the % of the DPRK’s trade comprised of transactions with China):

The canard’s origin is in the odd way that the official (South) Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) reports data on North Korean trade.  KOTRA excludes trade with South Korea, the North’s second largest trade partner after China, from North Korean international trade figures, treating these cross-border exchanges as “domestic.” (Funny, I’ve never noticed a minefield separating Maryland and Virginia or encountered heavily armed guards manning the Texas-Oklahoma border.) Then, to compound matters, KOTRA seems to have stopped following some of North Korea’s trade with Middle Eastern countries. The explanation could be budget cuts; there is also speculation that it is politics—dovish South Korean governments were reluctant to report North Korean involvement with dodgy Middle East regimes; or it could be general disinterest.  Whatever the reason, the breadth of KOTRA’s coverage of North Korean trade in the Middle East has dropped considerably, further exaggerating China’s prominence.

…

The upshot is that there is a huge divergence between the figures produced by KOTRA and those derived from UN and IMF data.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea, IMF differ over volume of N.K. trade
Yonhap
2011-6-17

Pictured above (Google Earth): Kangso Mineral Water Processing Factory (Google Maps)

According to the Hankyoreh:

Former DD Trading Chairman Lee Dae-sik, 74, still has trouble sleeping when he thinks about the events of the past few years. In that time, he has had to shut down an effort in the North Korea that was earning 4 to 5 billion won ($3.7 million to $4.6 million) in annual sales just a few years ago, as a result of the Lee Myung-bak administration’s hardline policy against North Korea.

“At the time I was investing in North Korea, we had the Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Act, and I never dreamed they would halt North Korea projects. Now the government will not let us do an effort it granted approval for, something we had been doing consistently. It is just…”

During an interview with the Hankyoreh at a cafe in the Hawolgok neighborhood of Seoul’s Seongbuk District on Tuesday evening, the day before the eleventh anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration, Lee was too overcome with emotion to finish his sentence. He is one of the many South Korean businesspeople who have suffered as a result of the government’s restrictions on trade with North Korea. According to a January-February survey of companies engaged in North Korea efforts, the 104 companies that responded sustained an average loss of 3.9 billion won ($3.6 million) as a result of the May 24 measures restricting inter-Korean trade.

Lee is a first-generation North Korea entrepreneur who has been engaged in trade with the country since the Kim Young-sam administration in 1994. Originally the operator of a shoe factory in Busan, Lee struggled with the competition of cheap labor in China and Northeast Asia and searched for a change before finally taking the leap into North Korea. At first, he imported Pyongyang soju and agricultural products like bracken, balloon flower roots, and pine mushrooms.

“After the June 15 summit in 2000, the North Koreans grew more flexible in their attitude and became easier to deal with,” he recalled.

Lee, who steadily expanded the range of his operations over the years, began an effort in 2005 with Pyongyang’s Kangso Yaksu. This mineral water, North Korean National Treasure No. 56, is naturally carbonated and contains minerals like calcium and iron. After securing exclusive sales rights from North Korean authorities, Lee completed construction on a production plant the next year at an investment of 3 billion won. According to the conditions of the contract, Lee sent the cost of the water and the raw materials for the bottles, along with caps and labels, and the North Koreans operates the factory and sent the water produced.

“We imported it to South Korea under the brand name of ‘Gangseo Cheongsan,’ and sales increased from an initial level of 100 thousand to 200 thousand bottles a month to 300 thousand to 400 thousand bottles a month,” he said.

But stormy clouds appeared on the horizon when the Lee Myung-bak administration took office in 2008. As inter-Korean relations grew chilly due to the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at Mt. Kumkang in July of that year and North Korea’s missile launch and nuclear test in April and May of 2009, respectively, the Lee administration placed restrictions on contact with North Korea by civilians.

“When you apply for contact with North Korea, the government tells you to ‘please refrain from doing so,’” Lee said. “They say ‘please refrain,’ but who is going to refuse a request from the government? They are basically telling you, ‘Don’t do it.’”

The decision left Lee unable to send the promised payment and bottle materials to North Korea and to receive the water. One day, a fax came in from North Korea. It notified Lee that the contract was null and void, as he had not supplied the raw materials or collected the water produced. “We had ten or so employees, and they all went their separate ways,” Lee sighed. “Fifteen years of work in North Korea, and all I have left now is a pile of debt.”

“North Korea said it would sell China the water produced at the facilities I invested in,” Lee added.

“Even so, they told me they would restore my rights if I am able to work again like before, so I really hope the inter-Korean trade restrictions are lifted right away so that I can do business freely.”

Read the full story here:
Losses continue for businesses engaged in inter-Korean trade
Hankyoreh
Park Byong-su
2011-6-16

According to the Daily NK:

The North Korean authorities are reportedly reacting more strictly than normal to overt sales of products from South Korea in the country’s domestic markets.

One Korean-Chinese man engaged in business in Pyongan and Hwanghae Provinces told The Daily NK on June 11th, “They’re cracking down hard on products from the Kaesong Industrial Complex in the jangmadang, and are reacting more strongly than before to South Korean products, too. There are no South Korean goods on sale openly.”

Sources say that in many cases this means that traders are being told to remove tags indicating South Korean origin.

The same trader explained, “Community watch guards come to the jangmadang and tell us to remove tags written in Chosun then sell them. They are thoroughly cracking down on things saying ‘Made in Korea’. Even though the clothes are of good quality, and therefore clearly South Korean, if there is no tag, then they are not prohibited.”

Currently, used clothes are said to be selling better than new ones, however. This is partly because people have little cash and are gravitating towards the cheaper prices, and partly because they don’t trust new products.

The trader explained, “The image of South Korean clothes is good as far as used clothes selling better than new ones goes. People think that new clothes are of poor quality and really expensive.”

He explained the reason for the low quality, saying, “Currently, producers are buying fabric in China to bring back and manufacture clothes in Chosun, and then they put ‘Made in China’ tags on them.”

A woman’s short-sleeve t-shirt is now worth 5,000 won for a new one but just 1,500 won for a used one. Since the price difference is huge and new ones are of questionable quality, decent used ones sell better.

Another source from Changbai in China corroborated the story, explaining, “Everybody from North Korea asks us to send them used stuff to sell. We go to Guangzhou to buy used clothes smuggled in from South Korea, and send them to North Korea. The demand from North Korea for South Korean used clothes is pretty high.”

Meanwhile, due to mobilization for seasonal agricultural work, the North Korean markets are currently operating from 5 PM to 7PM. They normally open at 2 PM.

However, the Korean-Chinese trader explained that despite the afternoon market closures, farms are facing an uphill battle, saying, “Since anyone who wants to survive has to trade, the number of traders has doubled. And since almost everyone is trading and their focus is on that, there is no way the farming work can go well.”

Read the full story here:
“Remove Tags, then Sell Them”
Daily NK
Park Jun Hyeong
2011-6-13

According to the JoongAng Daily:

South Koreans doing business with North Korea, or across its border with China, are seeing opportunities dry up as Pyongyang gives all the good breaks to Chinese companies.

Yesterday, workers were seen getting ready for a ground-breaking ceremony at Hwanggumpyong, a joint industrial complex run by North Korea and China on an island in the Yalu River.

North Korea’s official news agency said the complex would further deepen economic ties between the two countries. The exact reverse is happening to South Korean businesspeople.

“South Korean firms and investors have pretty much let their businesses at the China-North Korea border go since last May,” said Choi, the owner of a restaurant in Dandong. Choi, 54, has been running his restaurant for a decade and, to him, the good times are over.

“When business was active between South and North Korea, there were about 1,000 South Korean businessmen working in Dandong, all doing work related to North Korea,” said Choi. “But now most of them have left.”

“Most of the manufacturing jobs done inside North Korea have been taken by Chinese investors and the South Koreans left here in Dandong are mostly contractors for Chinese firms,” Choi said.

After the attack on the warship Cheonan in March 2010, business ties between South and North Korea have run dry due to sanctions ordered by Seoul the following May.

“I invested millions of dollars into developing the underground natural resources in North Korea before last May,” said Park, 56, who was working from Hunchun in northeast China. “Now that the South Korean government has banned all North Korean goods from entering the South, I’m about to lose all my money.”

Chinese investors – including ethnic Koreans living in China – are grabbing the business opportunities forfeited by the Southerners.

“I run short of stock even if I charge 10 renminbi [$1.54] for an abalone I used to sell at 5 renminbi,” said Han, 70, an ethnic Korean in China who sells abalones caught in North Korea. The trade was formerly done by South Koreans.

“Doing business with Chinese customers is much better because I can earn more and in cash, too,” he said.

The South’s sanctions on North Korea have resulted in some other problems as well. Pollack caught in Russian waters have been denied being imported into South Korea because they were mistaken for North Korean pollack. In fact, the fish cannot be found in North Korea anymore due to global warming.

“It was a loss for me when the fish didn’t make it through customs after being mistaken for North Korean pollack,” said Lee, 51. “I export Russian pollack to South Korea after they are caught and processed in China.” Lee is involved in aquatic product processing in Hunchun.

Jo Dong-ho, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said, “North Korea is looking for an alternative by doing business with China after trade with the South halted. There is a need for some breathing space when it comes to inter-Korean trade.”

Read the full story here:
China capturing North’s business
JoongAng Daily
Chang Se-jeong
2011-6-8

According to KBS:

South Korean firms doing trade with North Korea must will soon make payments only at government-designated banks.

The Unification Ministry said it will revise the law on inter-Korean cooperation and exchange to this effect. It said the measure aims to provide a greater understanding of the monetary flow of inter-Korean trade and secure transparent transactions.

The ministry has announced the qualifications a bank must meet to deal in inter-Korean trade payments and through June third, any of the 18 commercial banks in the country can apply for the designation. Two or three banks will be selected.

The revised law will also state in clearer terms the conditions and procedures relating to cross-border exchanges. It further calls for obtaining government approval when South Korean residents wish to transfer money to families in North Korea or when overseas chapters of South Korean firms seek to invest in North Korea.

The South Korean government is also seeking to gain control over remittances to families of DPRK defectors.

Read the full story here:
Designated Banks to Process S-N Trade Payments
KBS
2011-05-25

According to Yonhap:

A Seoul appeals court ruled Thursday the South Korean government should pay 120 million won (US$110,000) to a North Korean defector over an identity leak case that he claimed led to the disappearance of his 22 relatives in the North.

The Seoul High Court said the government claimed media reports on defection were intended to satisfy the people’s right to know, but the need to accept the defector’s request for confidentiality takes precedence over the people’s right to know or the freedom of press.

Lee Kwang-su, 42, sailed into South Korean waters along with his wife, two children and a friend aboard a small barge in 2006. He claimed he had initially planned to go to Japan and seek political asylum at the U.S. embassy there.

Lee currently lives in California after he won asylum in the United States in 2008.

He has said South Korean investigators released his identity as well as that of four others to media despite his request for confidentiality for fear of retaliation against their relatives in North Korea.

North Korean defectors in the South claim that North Korea harshly punishes relatives of defectors and sends them to prisons.

Lee believed his relatives were sent to a political prison camp, though it is nearly impossible to independently verify the claims due to lack of free access to the isolated country.

The ruling raised the amount of compensation to Lee, who was awarded 55 million won in a lower court in October. He had demanded 1.15 billion won when he filed a suit against the South Korean government in 2008.

Lee said he will consult with his lawyer before deciding whether or not appeal the ruling.

“I cannot expect justice will be served even if I appeal to the Supreme Court,” Lee said after the ruling, adding he plans to sue the South Korean government in a U.S. court. He did not give a specific time frame.

South Korean prosecutors were not immediately available for comment.

Read the full story here:
Appeals court orders S. Korean gov’t to pay W120 mln to defector
Yonhap
2011-5-19