North Korean Economy Watch

According to the Associated Press:

Russia’s president has signed an order formally implementing U.N. Security Council-approved sanctions against North Korea.
The sanctions were passed in June by the Security Council, which includes Russia, after the country conducted a nuclear test. The sanctions are aimed at pushing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.

To conform with the sanctions, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday ordered that all sales or imports of North Korean weapons and materials connected to them are forbidden.

It also bans weapons exports to the reclusive Communist country and bars transport of North Korean weapons through Russian territory, including its waters and airspace.

And according to Reuters:

Japan will extend sanctions against North Korea first imposed after the reclusive country tested a nuclear device and ballistic missiles in 2006, a senior official said on Tuesday.

The sanctions, previously set to expire on April 13, ban imports from North Korea and prohibit North Korean ships from calling at Japanese ports.

“Basically, I don’t see any reason for not extending (the sanctions),” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano told a news conference.

Asked whether the government would consider shortening the duration of the sanctions to six months from one year, Hirano said it would assess the outlook for multilateral talks that seek to persuade North Korea to roll back its nuclear program.

Japan has called for Pyongyang to return to the disarmament-for-aid talks hosted by China, in addition to pressing the country to reveal the fate of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s.

Japan also banned exports to the country last year although the impact was seen as being small given limited trade flows.

Read the full stories here:
Russia implements North Korea sanctions
Associated Press
3/30/2010

Japan to extend sanctions against North Korea
Reuters
Chisa Fujioka
3/31/2010

According to the Associated Press (via Los Angeles Times):

The North Korean’s note, scrawled in pen, was simple: “I want to go to South Korea. Why? To find freedom. Freedom of religion, freedom of life.”

The ex-logger, on the run from North Korean authorities, handed the note over to a South Korean missionary in the Russian city of Vladivostok last week in hopes it would lead to political asylum.

Just before he was to meet Thursday with the International Organization for Migrants, a team of men grabbed him, slapped handcuffs on him and drove off, rights activists in Moscow said Friday. He was spirited away to the eastern port city of Nakhokda, where he is sure to be handed back over to North Korean officials and repatriated to his communist homeland, activists said in Seoul.

Police in Vladivostok refused to comment. A senior South Korean diplomat in Vladivostok said he had no information. Officials from the U.S. consulate in Vladivostok could not be reached for comment.

The 51-year-old would be the third North Korean logger in Russia in a week to make a bid for asylum. On March 9, two other North Koreans who had fled their jobs as loggers managed to get into the South Korean consulate in Vladivostok.

Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported last week that two North Koreans climbed a fence, ran past the guards and entered the consulate, saying they wanted political asylum. ITAR-Tass carried a similar report.

The incidents focused attention on the precarious existence of tens of thousands of North Koreans sent by the impoverished regime to work in neighboring Russia.

Russian government figures from 2007 put the number of North Korean laborers at 32,600, most of them working in logging in the remote east.

The Rev. Peter Chung, a Seoul-based activist, said there are about 40,000 North Korean loggers in Russia, but that some 10,000 of them have fled their work sites. Some are finding work as day laborers while others are in hiding as they try to map out how to win asylum in foreign diplomatic missions.

The North Korean described the conditions as unbearable. His government took half his meager wages, while the North Korean company operating the logging camp took 35 percent. He kept just 15 percent — about $60 a month — an arrangement that rendered him “virtually a slave,” he told activists.

He eventually fled the logging camp, taking odd jobs to survive. He also became a Christian, Chung and Kim Hi-tae said, which could draw severe punishment, even execution, back home.

The successful asylum bid of two other former North Korean loggers inspired Kim to make a similar attempt, Chung said.

Previous posts on the North Korean loggers in Russia can be found here. More here. And here. And here.

Read the full story below:
3rd North Korean logger attempts to defect in Russia, propelled by dream of ‘freedom of life’
Associated Press (via Los Angeles Times)
Kim Kwang Tae
3/19/2010

According to Itar-Tass:

The Altai Territory will supply a test batch of flour to North Korea weighing 2,000 tons. The concern Altaiskiye Melnitsy (Altai Mills) signed a corresponding contract with the foreign trade state amalgamation of North Korea, ITAR-TASS learnt at the enterprise on Tuesday.

“Further increasing of volumes of supplies will mainly depend on the export price of flour,” general director Sergei Klinov said. The currently in force railway tariff from the Altai Territory to the border with North Korea, and this is about 3,600 roubles per ton, exceeds half the cost of flour in the export price structure. In such a situation, the issue of quality may become secondary for North Korea, and it will continue buying flour in China.”

Read the full stoy here:
Altai to begin supplying flour to North Korea
Itar-Tass
3/16/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-03-11-1
3/11/2010

North Korea is actively looking into further development of Rajin Port by extending China’s lease on port facilities for another decade, and granting Russia 50-year rights to Rajin port facilities, as well. Li Longxi, a deputy of the National People’s Congress and head of Jilin Province’s Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, revealed to a Yonhap News reporter in Beijing on March 8, “The North gave Russia the right to use Pier 3 for 50 years, and is actively looking into extending the right to use Pier 1 granted to China in 2008 for another 10 years.”

Rajin Port has five piers, with Pier 3 being larger than Pier 1. The rights to Pier 1 were granted to the Changli Group, which specializes in the manufacture of environmental materials in Dalian. 10-year use and development rights had already been granted to this company. Deputy Li explained, “China gained rights to Pier 1 in 2008, and is now in negotiations with North Korea over extending those rights for 10 years.” Therefore, if this agreement is reached, China will have exclusive rights to the pier until 2028.

Li added, “Currently, China is in the process of constructing the facilities necessary to use the pier, and will begin to move goods through the port when construction is complete.” It appears China has invested tens of millions of Yuan into this project. Li also pointed out that by being able to use Rajin Port, Yanbian, currently lacking export avenues, will be able to transport Jilin Province’s abundant coal resources, not only through the Yellow Sea to Shanghai and other domestic cities, but to Japan and other countries in the Asia Pacific region.

On February 28, Sun Zhengcai, CCP Secretary of Jilin Province met with North Korean Kim Yong Il, head of the Korean Workers’ Party International Department, and introduced to him China’s ‘Greater Tumen Initiative’ development project. At the time, it was reported that Sun explained to Kim that Jilin provincial authorities had reached an agreement with North Korea for joint venture to construct a network of roads and basic infrastructure facilities. Jilin provincial and city officials, as well as Changchun city representatives, are involved in the project. China is focused on the Tumen river basin and Rajin Port because of their strategically valuable economic role in developing the country’s straggling northeast region.

Russia is also eyeing Rajin Port, because if the port is developed, it could serve as an outlet to export Sakhalin and Siberian crude oil and natural gas to neighboring countries. In July of last year, Russia and North Korea reached an agreement to repair the rail connection between Rajin and Hasan and to improve Rajin Port facilities, investing 1.4 billion Euros. Japanese newspaper Sankei Sinbun quoted a source within North Korea as reporting that Jang Song Thaek, Party administrative chief and brother-in-law of Kim Jong Il, had recently travelled to Rasun (Rajin + Sunbong) and declared that the area would be fully developed within the next 6 months.

The Korea Daepung International Group, serving as North Korea’s window to foreign capital, is said to have a plan to entice international investment in order to support the Tumen river development plan, and plans to develop Rasun Special City and Chongjin Port into key outlets for DPRK-PRC-Russian trade and commerce in Northeast Asia. However, the participation, and investment, of private-sector enterprises will likely depend on the success of the Rajin Port development.

UPDATE:  According to Defense News:

Fears that China will establish a naval presence at a port facility at North Korea’s Rajin Port appear unfounded.

An agreement with a Chinese company to lease a pier at Rajin for 10 years was reported by the Chinese state-controlled Global Times on March 10.

The Chuangli Group, based at Dalian in China’s Liaoning province, invested $3.6 million in 2009 to rebuild Pier No. 1 and is constructing a 40,000-square-meter warehouse at the port. The leasing agreement has given way to suggestions China could be attempting to establish its first naval base with access to the Sea of Japan.

The North Korean Navy does use Rajin as a base for smaller vessels, such as mine warfare and patrol vessels, but for the time being, it appears economics are the primary motivation for the Chinese company’s presence there, said Bruce Bechtol, author of the book “Red Rogue: The Persistent Challenge of North Korea.”

“Chinese investment has increased a great deal in North Korea in the past five years,” he said. “It would not be a military port for the Chinese – as the North Koreans would be unlikely to ever allow such a thing.” He noted there are no Chinese military installations in North Korea.

The Rajin facility will give Chinese importers and exporters direct access to the Sea of Japan for the first time. “It is the country’s first access to the maritime space in its northeast since it was blocked over a century ago,” the Global Times reported.

China lost access to the Sea of Japan during the Qing Dynasty in the 19th century after signing treaties under duress from Japan and Russia.

Various media in Japan and South Korea have suggested the lease might give China an opportunity to place a naval base at Rajin, but Bruce Klingner of the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., also downplayed the notion, saying North Korea’s negative attitudes toward China and a fear of excessive Chinese influence would negate any chance Beijing could establish a naval presence there.

Klingner also said he doubts North Korea would make a success out of the agreement. “Pyongyang’s aversion to implementing necessary economic reform and its ham-fisted treatment of investors suggests the new effort to turn Rajin into an investment hub will be as much a failure as the first attempt in the 1990s.”

ORIGINAL POST: According to the Choson Ilbo:

China has gained the use of a pier at North Korea’s Rajin Port for 10 years to help development of the bordering region and establish a logistics network there.

Lee Yong-hee, the governor of the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in China’s Jilin province, made the announcement to reporters after the opening of the People’s Congress at the Great Hall of People in Beijing on Sunday.

He was quoted by the semi-official China News on Monday as saying, “In order for Jilin Province to gain access to the East Sea, a private company in China in 2008 obtained the right to use Pier No. 1 at Rajin Port for 10 years. Infrastructure renovation is currently underway there.”

In an interview with Yonhap News on Monday, Lee said, “We’re considering extending the contract by another 10 years afterward.”

Jilin abuts the mouth of the Duman (Tumen) River in the southeast but its access to the East Sea is blocked by Russia and North Korea. “We hope that an international route to the East Sea will be opened via Rajin Port,” he added.

Lee did not specify which Chinese company obtained the right and which North Korean agency awarded the concession. The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Feb. 25 said business investment in the North Korea-China border area is a normal business deal and does not therefore run counter to UN sanctions against the North.

According to Yonhap:

South Korea is keeping a close watch over North Korea’s efforts to draw greater foreign investment to one of its ports, as the move might indicate Pyongyang is opening up to the outside world and signal its return to stalled international nuclear talks, officials said Tuesday.

The North has agreed to give a 50-year lease on its Rajin port to Russia, and the country is also in talks with a Chinese company on extending its 10-year lease by another decade, according to an official from China’s Jilian Province, currently in Beijing for the National People’s Congress.

The North’s opening of the port on its east coast has a significant meaning for China as it will give the latter a direct access to the Pacific, but it also means millions of dollars, at the minimum, in investment for the cash-strapped North.

Officials at Seoul’s foreign ministry said the North’s opening of its port or its economy was a positive sign, but that it was too early to determine whether the move will also have a positive effect on international efforts to bring North Korea back to the nuclear negotiations.

“We are trying to confirm the reports, though they appear to be true because they were based on China’s official announcement,” an official said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

“We are trying to find out the exact details of the contracts (between North Korea and Russia and China),” the official added.

Additional information 

1. A previous report indcated that there were 250 Chinese companies registered in Rason.  The North Koreans reportedly closed out the insolvent and inoperable businesses. I do not know how many are there now. Read more here.

2. The Russian government recently built a Russian-gauge railway line from Kashan to Rason. Read more here.  It will be interesting to see if China upgrades roads and railways which could connect Rason to China.

3. Rason is sealed off by an electric fence. Read more here.

4. Many other stories about Rason here.

Read the full stories here:
China’s Jilin Wins Use of N.Korean Sea Port
Choson Ilbo
3/9/2010

Seoul closely watching N. Korea’s opening of port to China: officials
Yonhap
Byun Duk-kun
3/9/2010

Josh points out this table from the UNHCR (originally published by RFA):

Click image for larger version.

According to Yonhap:

South Korea’s new ambassador to Russia said on Wednesday that he is committed to implementing the envisioned South Korea-North Korea-Russia natural gas pipeline.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed at their 2008 summit in Moscow to cooperate on building a tripartite gas pipeline involving North Korea. But the agreement has yet to be realized, as Pyongyang has failed to respond amid chilly inter-Korean relations.

Ambassador Lee Youn-ho, who accompanied President Lee on the Russian trip in his capacity as knowledge economy minister, said that the three-nation gas pipeline project, if realized, will be very meaningful “economically and politically.”

“If the South Korea-Russia gas pipeline can pass through North Korea, it can be linked to the construction of electric power and railway networks (in North Korea),” said Ambassador Lee.

Lee then called for significant improvement of ties between South Korea and Russia, claiming the two are now more ready and fit than ever to forge a relationship that will be mutually beneficial.

You can read past posts about the Russia-Korea gas pipeline here. 

Read the full article here:
Seoul’s new envoy to Russia vows to speed up gas pipeline project
Yonhap
Byun Duk-kun
2/10/2010

Northeast Asia Matters posted a very helpful background paper on the Tumen Area Economic Development Project. According to Northeast Asia Matters:

Many in Northeast Asia wish to see the Tumen Basin develop into a place for economic cooperation and competition. One such plan is the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI), formerly known as Tumen River Area Development Project (TRADP), being carried out under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The 20-year 80 billion USD plan calls for the creation of port facilities and transportation infrastructure in the region to support a multinational trading hub. Countries participating in the GTI are China, Mongolia, North Korea, Russia and South Korea.

The goal of GTI is to make the area into a free economic zone for trade to prosper and attract investment into the area. For China, the project would give traders in Northeast China easier access to major international ports without having to circumnavigate the Korean Peninsula and thus stimulating growth in China’s northeast rustbelt. For Russia, the project would give the ability to better exploit resources in Siberia and allow easier access to North Korea’s resource-rich hinterland; the area just to the south of the Tumen contains reserves of oil, minerals, coal, timber, and abundant farmland.

Development of the Tumen River area and North Korea’s participation in this project means inflow of hard foreign currency, improvements in infrastructure, and possible increase in industrial capacity. North Korea, with its bleak economy, therefore, will most likely continue to support the development of Tumen River area and increase its future involvement in the project as it seeks to break the economic isolation and hardship it has suffered since the collapse of most of its communist allies and the implementation of international sanctions.

Read the full paper here.

 
Click on images for larger versions

According to Yonhap:

China will mend a rail link between one of its border cities and a North Korean port, a source familiar with North Korean affairs said Sunday, a move that indicates stronger economic ties between the two allies.

North Korea and the municipal government of the Chinese city of Tumen, which borders the North, have recently agreed to repair the railway linking the city with North Korea’s northeastern port of Chongjin, the source said.

Additional Information: 

1. Above I have posted Google Earth images of the China-DPRK border area and a simple map of the DPRK’s North Eastern railway system.

2. Long-time readers will remember that Russia recently installed Russian-gague railway track from the North Korean border to the city of Rason (Rajin-Songbon). It looks like both Russia and China get their own ports in the DPRK.

3. Chongjin is also home to both Russian and Chinese consulates. 

UPDATE:  China plans development zone on North Korean border
By Michael Rank

China is planning a major new development zone along the North Korean border aimed at boosting trade with its reclusive neighbour and throughout northeast Asia, a Chinese-language website reports.

The plan is to come to fruition under two separate deals: the border cities of Dandong in Liaoning province and Tonghua in Jilin province have signed an (unpriced) “development and opening up vanguard zone cooperation agreement” as well as a 440 million yuan ($64 million) “six-party cooperation agreement” with the Shenyang Railway Bureau, Changchun Customs, Dandong Port Group and Tonghua Steel (Tonggang) to build a “Tonghua inland port” with a duty-free zone, warehouses and international transit facilities that will be ready in 2012.

The Tonghua-Dandong Economic Zone will apparently stretch over most of the western half of the Chinese-North Korean border, a distance of around 350 km. The city of Tonghua is in fact some 80 km north of the border, but the report says the new zone will include the border post of Ji’an which is administered by Tonghua.

It gives few further details, but notes that when Premier Wen Jiabao visited North Korea last month he signed an agreement on building a new bridge across the Yalu river which would further boost Chinese-North Korean trade.

It also quotes the acting mayor of Tonghua, Tian Yulin, as saying that the new zone will transform the city from “inland” to “coastal” and “will promote trade between the inland cities of the northeast and North Korea and with the whole of northeast Asia.” The report adds that almost 60% of China’s trade with North Korea passes through Dandong.

This is not the only new development zone in China’s rustbelt northeast, which has been in severe economic decline in recent decades: a separate Chinese report announces the creation of another zone in Jilin, stretching from the capital Changchun in the centre of the province to the city of Jilin (or rather just part of it, for some unstated reason) as far as Yanbian on the North Korean border. This report does not mention North Korea directly but says the new zone will make the eastern border city of Hunchun an “open window” for regional trade, with Changchun and Jilin city “important supports.”

One-third of Jilin’s 26 million population live in the zone and it accounts for half of the province’s economic output, the report adds. See also this English-language report.

State-owned Tonghua Steel’s involvement in the Tonghua-Dandong zone is somewhat surprising as the ailing company has been rocked by unrest following an abortive attempt at a takeover deal by rival company Jianlong earlier this year. There was strong opposition to the deal on the part of workers who feared they would lose their jobs, and their fears turned to violence last July when a senior manager was murdered in mysterious circumstances.

The Chinese business magazine Caijing told how “the man’s death at the hands of unidentified killers uncovered an often antagonistic network of competing business interests and investors involved in Jianlong’s botched attempt to buy Tonggang.”

Tonghua Steel was in 2005 planning to sign a 7 billion yuan ($865 million), 50-year exploration rights deal with a North Korean iron ore mine, said to be the country’s largest iron deposit. The Chinese company was hoping to receive 10 million tonnes of iron ore a year from the Musan mine as part of its plans to increase steel production from a projected 5.5 million tonnes in 2007 to 10 million tonnes in 2010.

Tonggang boss An Fengcheng said at the time that agreement had already been reached with China Development Bank on 800 million yuan worth of soft loans and 1.6 billion yuan of hard loans, while “the remaining investment will come in in stages”. But it seems that the deal was never signed.

Caijing told how An, the steel mill’s chairman and Communist Party secretary, had “basically unlimited managerial control of Tonggang” and that the takeover by Jianlong was cancelled just a few hours after the murder of the manager Chen Guojin, who had come from Jianlong and was one of two Jianlong representatives on the board of Tonghua.

“There is no evidence to suggest An’s involvement in Chen’s death. But two weeks after the incident, he was sacked and stripped of all power by the Jilin provincial government. No other details of his removal were announced,” the magazine added.

ORIGINAL POST: According to the P.R. of China’s Global Times (Xinhua) via Adam Cathcart:

The Chinese government has approved a border development zone in the Tumen River Delta to boost cross-border cooperation in the Northeast Asian region, the provincial government of Jilin announced on Monday.The information office of the government said the pilot zone covering 73,000 square kilometers involved the cities of Changchun and Jilin as well as the Tumen River area.

Han Changbin, governor of Jilin, said the Changchun-Jilin-Tumen pilot zone was China’s first border development zone.

It is expected to push forward cross-border cooperation in the Tumen River Delta.

The delta, a 516-kilometer-long river straddling the borders of China, Russia and North Korea, was set up as an economic development zone in 1991 by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to promote trade.

In 1995, five countries – China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Mongolia – ratified the agreement on the Establishment of the Cooperation Commission for the Tumen River Economic Development Area (web page here). Japan participated in the program as an observer.

In 2005, the five signatories agreed to extend the agreement for another 10 years.

They also agreed to expand the area to the Greater Tumen Region and to further strengthen cooperation for economic growth and sustainable development for the peoples of Northeast Asia.

“Before the Changchun-Jilin-Tumen pilot zone was initiated, the Chinese part of the Tumen River area was mainly Huichun, a port city in Jilin, that has involved in the cross-border cooperation,” said Zhu Xianping, director of the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University in Changchun.

The 5,145-square-kilometer port city with a 250,000 population had limited industrial development capacity to develop infrastructure projects that will match the cross-border cooperation, he said.

Du Ying, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that by bringing the two cities of Changchun and Jilin into the border zone, the zone could serve as a strategic platform to support the cross-border cooperation in the Greater Tumen Region.

Zhao Zhenqi, an assistant to the Jilin governor, said the central government has allowed the pilot zone to try new land use and foreign financing methods, such as sharing ports and sea routes with other countries in the region and setting up free trade zones.

Under the initiative of the pilot zone, local governments in the region could better interact to tackle development bottlenecks, he said.

The Northeast China region, rich in natural resources including coal and oil, is China’s traditional heavy industry base and granary. However, it also faces the challenges of industrial upgrading, resource depletion and financing bottlenecks.

Random thoughts and links:
1. The challenge facing north east China (as they see it) is the lack of a port city on the East Sea (or the Sea of Japan if you prefer).  This is where North Korea comes in.  China and Russia have long been trying to establish  use rights and/or control of Rason and Chongjin.  Russia recently built a “Russia-gague” railroad line from Rason to the DPRK-Russian border. The Chinese have been busy building roads.

2. (speculation) China is the DPRK’s largest trading partner.  International sanctions have given China monopsony power vis-a-vis the DPRK.  This means the Yuan goes farther in the DPRK than in other countries and it gives the PRC a financial incentive in the continued economic isolation of the DPRK.

3. Here is CCTV video.

4. Forbes covers this story here.