North Korean Economy Watch

North Korean Fashion Archives

Choson Exchange posted the following on their web page:

During our last trip, we met with Korea Daesong Bank, which kindly provided a product catalog from the 80s/90s of their parent company – Korea Daesong Economic Group (KDEG). While fashion definitely has moved on in Pyongyang, we thought that it might be good to share some of the products they display in their catalog – for old times sake. In case you decide that the retro look is for you, do note that KDEG is currently under international sanctions.

Choson Exchange posted the pictures to their Facebook Page, but since there are many people who cannot (or do not) access Facebook, I thought I would post the pictures here:

American beer popular in the DPRK?

Pictured above (left) is a bottle of Budweiser served with dry fish aboard the recent Mangyongbong-92 “cruise” from Rason to Kumgangsan.  Learn more here. Pictured above (right) is a can of Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR) which has been converted into a candle holder and placed next to a bottle of “domestic” Taedonggang Beer. Click image for source. Maybe the number of hipster visitors to the DPRK has increased?

Coca Cola
Forbes Magazine has a very interesting article on talks between the North Koreans and Coca-Cola! Read the full article here.  I thought this would be a good time to remind readers about the DPRK’s indigenous cola:

Image source here

The soda is “Crabonated” which is a pretty funny typo. Also worth noting are the lengths they have gone through to copy the Coca-Cola brand–as if they are trying to win back market-share from the firm. The colors, red, black, silver and white are the same. The familiar cursive English “C” at the beginning of the word is a close copy. They even tried to replicate the Coke “wave” by adding a literal wave in a similar curve along the bottom of the advert.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-9-29

This year’s trade volume between China and the DPRK reached an all time high.

According to the (South) Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency, the trade volume between China and North Korea between January and July of 2011 recorded 3.097 billion USD, surpassing last year’s 3.472 billion USD by 88 percent.

This is the second year since 2008 for the yearly trade volume to continue to break the record of the previous year.

During the same period, China exported 1.783 billion USD and imported 1.314 billion USD to North Korea. Compared to the same period last year, exports increased by 53.3 percent while imports increased by 169.2 percent, and its trade surplus decreased by 30.4 percent.

The main exports of China are oil, diesel freight vehicles, nitrogenous fertilizers, and grains while the top imports were anthracites, steel, and non-alloy pig irons.

The total amount of fertilizer North Korea imported between January and June totaled 193,960 tons (equaling about 39.88 million USD), a hike of 91 percent against last year’s 99,588 tons (25.4 million USD).

The price per ton of imported fertilizers was 188 USD for ammonium sulfate fertilizer (164,456 ton) and 346 USD for urea fertilizers (25,577 ton). Last year, 59,110 tons of ammonium sulfate fertilizer and 45,310 tons of urea fertilizer were imported. A drastically higher amount of ammonium sulfate fertilizer was imported this year compared with the previous year, the cause of which is speculated to be either a radical decrease in the fertilizer production in North Korea or an attempt to improve the country’s food production.

The total amount of grains imported from China from January to June totaled 149,173 tons, a boost of 5.5 percent from the previous year. The price of grain per ton went up from 372 USD to 404 USD, a rise of 8.6 percent. The cost of imported grain increased 14.4 percent against last year, an increase from 52.7 million USD to 63.1 million USD.

The grains imported were corn (38.2 percent), flour (37.5 percent), rice (16.9 percent), and bean (7.2 percent). Compared to last year, corn and flour imports rose while rice and bean slightly decreased. This year’s average price per ton of grain was 661 USD for bean, 538 USD for rice, 395 USD for flour, and 304 USD for corn.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported nearly three times as much grain from China in August as last year, an expert said Thursday, an unusual increase that may suggest food shortages in the impoverished nation have worsened.

The North purchased 47,978 tons of corn, flour and rice in August, up from 16,723 tons in the same period of last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

“It is unusual that the North increased grain imports sharply in August ahead of the harvest season in fall,” Kwon said. “It is believed that the North increased imports as its grain stock is falling low.”

The North imported 216,535 tons of grain from China in the first eight months, a rise of 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

China is the North’s key ally, economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

North Korea suffered devastating floods in recent months that washed away tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, damage that is feared to threaten its already fragile food situation.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Back in June 2011, Yonhap reported:

North Korea imported more than 50,000 tons of grains from its key ally China in May, an expert said Thursday, amid chronic food shortages in the North.

The North purchased 50,328 tons of corn, flour and rice in May, up 31.5 percent compared to the same period last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

The North also imported 114,300 tons of fertilizer from China in the first five months, a rise of 39 percent compared to the same period last year, Kwon said, citing figures from Seoul’s Korea International Trade Association.

China is the North’s last remaining ally, key economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

In March, the U.N. food agency appealed for 430,000 tons of food aid to feed 6 million vulnerable North Korean people, a quarter of the country’s population.

Washington sent its delegation to North Korea in May to assess the food situation, though no decision on food aid has been made yet.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

However, the outside aid has dwindled following the North’s missile and nuclear tests and other provocations.

There are basically two conflicting narratives being played out in the media in regards to this kind of news. The first narrative is that heavy seasonal floods and typhoon damage wiped out a large percentage of North Korea’s fall harvest and they are in desperate need of food assistance. The second narrative is that the DPRK is boosting food stocks in advance of 2012, the year the country is supposed to transition into a “Strong and Prosperous Country” (according to official propaganda). Since the DPRK’s appeal for large-scale food aid has gone largely ignored by the international community (despite the best efforts of organizations like the UNWFP and charities like Samaritan’s Purse), the country is forced to increase food stocks through international trade if it wants to live up to the expectations it has created among the domestic population.  Meeting these expectations is especially important right now as they will play an important role in facilitating the leadership  transition to Kim Jong-il’s designated successor, Kim Jong-un.

I have been posting stories about this year’s food shortage here (though neglected for a couple of weeks).

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea’s grain imports from China increase threefold
Yonhap
2011-9-29

N. Korea increases grain imports from China
Yonhap
2011-6-30

According to Strategy Page:

Japan recently launched another photo reconnaissance satellite, replacing a radar equipped spy satellite that failed last year. A Japanese rocket was used for this launch. Four years ago Japan launched its fourth spy satellite into orbit, also using a Japanese-made rocket. The third bird was launched five years ago. The first two were launched in 2003. The 2006 launch was the second of three optical reconnaissance satellites. The cameras on board can make out objects as small as one meter (39 inches) in diameter. The new photo satellite can detect objects .6 meters (two feet) in size. The best U.S. spy satellites can make out much smaller objects, but for Japan’s needs, .6-1 meter is adequate. At this point, none of the four birds carry radar, to provide all weather coverage. Technically, the satellites are in violation of a 1969 Japanese law, which mandated Japan only use space for non-military purposes. To get around this, these satellites are technically non-military, and are not controlled by the military.

Japan had long refrained from launching military satellites, but this changed when North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan in 1998. Japan promptly set out to get eight surveillance satellites in orbit by 2006, in order to keep an eye on North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missile efforts. This proved impossible to do. While two Japanese satellites were launched in early 2003, another two were destroyed during late 2003, when the rocket malfunctioned.

Japan has long relied on commercial photo satellites, and whatever they could get from the Americans. But for high resolution shots, on demand, of North Korea, and electronic eavesdropping from space, they need their own spy satellites. It is believed that the Japanese spy satellites are also being used to watch military developments in China and Russia.

The Japanese program has cost nearly three billion dollars. The optical satellites weigh about a ton, while the radar one weighs about a third more. The United States provided a lot of technical assistance on the design and construction of the satellites. Japan built its own rockets to launch them. Like most spy satellite users, Japan does not report on how effective they are. It is known that Japan could get more detailed photos from commercial satellites. But those are not controlled by the Japanese government.

Read the full story here:
Japan Has Another Eye On North Korea
Strategy Page
2011-9-28

Andrei Lankov writes in the Korea Times:

In 2010, the volume of trade between these two countries was merely $110 million. As international trade goes, this volume is tiny. By comparison, in the same year North Korea’s trade with China was around $3.4 billion, some 30 times larger than its trade with Russia.

The reason for this inactivity is quite simple: Russian companies have no interest in dealing with North Korea. In the Soviet era, trade flourished because it was subsidized due to geopolitical concerns of Moscow. Currently, when it comes to pure economic considerations, North Korea has almost nothing to offer the new Russian economy.

North Korea has only two resources that can be sold on the international market. First, it has deposits of minerals (coal, iron ore). Second, it has a relatively large quantity of cheap labor ― or to put things in a less cynically capitalist way, there are millions of North Koreans willing to work for $10 a month.

But Russian companies are decisively uninterested in North Korean minerals. These mines may be attractive to resource-hungry China, but not to Russia, which has the riches of Siberia at its disposal. The chronic political instability in which North Korea is immersed is another reason which lessens Russian interest in North Korean minerals.

Cheap labor is more attractive, and indeed Russia has continuously used North Korean labor since 1967 but not in the North itself. Some Chinese companies began to outsource to North Korea, and built small factories there, in order to take advantage of the obscenely low local wages. This approach is not very attractive to Russia, since it is not a major player in producing winter parkas, wool hoods, or running shoes. Russian companies prefer to use North Korean workers inside Russia itself.

These workers are sent to Russia by the North Korean authorities and can be described as indentured labor. Their families are hostages who can be punished if a worker does something improper and the workers are also expected to ‘donate’ a significant part of their wages to the state. Despite these harsh conditions, one should not forget that these jobs are among the best paid regular jobs in the country. North Koreans compete for opportunities to become indentured laborers in Russia.

That said, the scale of these ventures is rather limited, as is the demand for cheap labor in the Russian Far East (the only part of Russia where the use of North Korean laborers really makes practical sense).

Aside from this, North Korea has something else to offer – its geographical location. This country blocks all land routes to the prosperous South. Russia has much interest in the South Korean market, especially when it comes to the sale of natural resources. Impeding this is the existence of North Korea, and the continued strained relations between the two Korean states, making sales of Russian commodities rather difficult.

So it is not incidental that the two most important potential projects are a railway and a gas pipeline. Both projects can hardly be described as “economic cooperation” between North Korea and Russia, since neither has much to do with the North Korean economy itself. North Korea, in these cases, is present merely as a space to be traversed. It would be no different if it were a dessert or jungle. Russia is willing to pay North Korea for facilitating Russia’s economic link with the South, and that is all.

So it is not surprising that an agreement on the pipeline construction was signed after the Russian-North Korean summit. This project is indeed acceptable to the North, since it will mean easy money for transit, it is favorable to Russia, and it will be good for the general situation since it will bind Russia, North and South Korea closer.

Yet, a word of caution is necessary. In spite of all official statements, we should not expect large-scale construction work to begin in the near future. The political risks remain huge, so it is likely that Russian companies will not rush headlong into the project. The recent agreement should rather be seen as a declaration of intent. In all probability, the trans-Korean pipeline and trans-Korean railway will be built eventually. But the completion of these important initiatives will probably take many, many years.

Read the full story here:
Russia-N. Korea Trade
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
2011-9-25

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s trade dependence on China deepened over the past four years, in contrast to a reduction in South Korea’s share in the North’s external trade, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said in a report Sunday.

The proportion of China in North Korea’s foreign trade is on the rise, increasing from 41.6 percent in 2007 to 49.5 percent in 2008, 52.7 percent in 2009 and 57.1 percent last year, the report said.

By contrast, South Korea saw its share of the North’s trade declining from 38.0 percent in 2007 to 33.0 percent in 2009 to 31.4 percent last year, it noted.

In terms of trade volume, too, bilateral trade between North Korea and China jumped from US$1.97 billion in 2007 to $2.68 billion in 2009 and $3.47 billion in 2010, the report said, adding the inter-Korean trade volume slightly increased from $1.8 billion in 2007 to $1.91 billion last year.

I looked on the Ministry of Unification’s web page, but I was unable to find the report mentioned above.  It  has obviously not been published in English.

As this information was released in South Korea, the DPRK’s premier, Choe Yong-rim, is in China.  According to the Korea Times:

The North’s Premier Choe Yong-rim and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao “pledged to promote trade, investment and economic cooperation” between the nations during a meeting held on Monday night during Choe’s official visit to China, Xinhua news agency said.

“Under the context of the complicated regional and international situation, the parties, governments and peoples of China and the DPRK (North Korea)…made joint efforts to push forward bilateral ties,” Xinhua quoted Wen as telling Choe during the talks.

Wen hailed the North’s achievements in developing its economy and vowed that Beijing will continue to offer assistance within its capability, according to the report.

He then called on the two sides to speed up mutually beneficial cooperation in fields such as trade, investment, infrastructure, natural resources and agriculture, the report said.

Here is the Xinhua report.

Scott Snyder had some interesting comments on the DPRK-PRC trade relationship:

South Korea’s perceived failure to compete with China for economic influence in the North as a result of heightened tensions in inter-Korean relations remains an active subject of frustration in South Korea, especially among progressives, but North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear and missile tests and other tension-raising provocations against the South make it clear that China has been unable to use the North’s economic dependency on Beijing as a tool for imposing political restraint on Pyongyang.

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea deepens trade dependence on China
Yonhap
2011-9-25

Premiers of NK, China vow to boost economic cooperation
Korea Times
2011-9-27

According to Catholicculture.org (2011-9-23):

Religious leaders, including Catholic leaders, from democratic South Korea are visiting Communist North Korea, one of the world’s most repressive nations.

“The visit of a delegation of religious leaders in North Korea is a gesture to keep an open channel with the North,” says Bishop Peter Kang of Cheju, president of the bishops’ conference. “But we need to be realistic, and not have any great illusions. Religions will continue to bring humanitarian aid to the population of the North who suffer from hunger, and this is the interest of Pyongyang. Believers in the North are closely monitored and religious freedom is denied.”

Delegation itinerary:

According to KCNA, the delegation arrived in Pyongyang on Sept 21:

A south Korean delegation of 7 religious orders headed by Kim Hui Jung, representative chairman of the South Korean Religionists Council for Peace and head of the Kwangju Archdiocese of the Catholic Church, arrived here on Wednesday.

According to KCNA, the group held a meeting on the 22nd:

A meeting of north-south religionists for national reconciliation, unity and peaceful reunification took place in Pyongyang on Thursday.
Present at the meeting were Jang Jae On, chairman of the Religious Believers Council of Korea; Kang Yong Sop, chairman of the Central Committee of the Christian Federation of Korea; Sim Sang Jin, chairman of the Central Committee of the Buddhist Federation of Korea; Kang Chol Won, vice-chairman of the Central Guidance Committee of the Chondoist Association of Korea; and members of religious organizations.
Also attending it were members of the delegation of south Korea’s 7 religious orders led by Kim Hui Jung, representative chairman of the South Korean Religionists Council for Peace and head of the Kwangju Archdiocese of the Catholic Church.
Speakers at the meeting spoke of the pleasure of representatives of different religious organizations in the north and the south at sitting together and having their meeting for national reconciliation and unity and peaceful reunification.
They noted the meeting would mark a meaningful occasion in demonstrating internally and externally the strong will of the believers in the north and the south to tide over difficulties in the way of national reunification, promote national concord and bring about a new phase of peace and independent reunification.
They called upon believers in the north and the south to advance, holding higher the banner of “By the Korean nation itself” convinced that the implementation of the June 15 joint declaration leads to the reunification and peace of the country.
A joint statement of the believers in the north and the south for national reconciliation, unity and peaceful reunification was made public at the meeting.
The statement said that they would make positive efforts to defuse antagonism and distrust, tension and confrontation between compatriots, remove the danger of war and ensure durable peace.
It stressed the need to solve all the problems between the north and the south in conformity with the will and interests common to the nation.
It went on:
The Religious Believers Council of Korea in the north and the south Korean Religionists Council for Peace will regularly hold meetings to boost dialogue and cooperation between themselves and actively conduct a movement to achieve the unity of believers and reunification.
The statement ardently called upon all the Koreans in the north and the south and abroad to join as one in the drive for national reconciliation, unity, peace and reunification.

According to KCNA, following the meeting the delegation visited Mangyongdae, Mt. Paektu, the Arch of Triumph, the Taedonggang Combined Fruit Farm and its new processing factory, and saw “Arirang”.

On Sept24, the delegation departed.

Some history:

Around the time of the delegation’s visit, Kwang On-yoo sent out the following information to the Korean Studies list:

Just before the Korean War there were 52 Catholic parishes in the North, with some 50,000 believers in three dioceses, Pyongyang, Hamhung and Chunchon, plus a territorial abbey that was a direct subject of the Holy See.

After the end of the Korean War and the resulting division of the nation, the Vatican handed over the Apostolic administration of the North Korean dioceses to bishops in South Korea.

The current Archbishop of Seoul, Cardinal Cheong Jin-suk, is the Apostolic Administrator for Pyongyang and Hamhung while Bishop Kim Un-hwi of the Chunchon diocese in South Korea is the Apostolic Administrator of Chunchon diocese in North Korea.

Over the years, requests by the South Korean Bishops for pastoral visits to the North Korean dioceses have repeatedly been denied.

Since 1988, the North Korea regime has presented Jangchung ” Cathedral” [See satellite image here], the only so called Catholic church in North Korea, to outsiders as a shining example of North Korean Catholicism with hundreds of parishioners. Actually, the church has no functioning priest and no sacraments.

In April, a Seoul based North Korean defector’s radio station, Free North Korea, alleged that Jangchung Church is in fact a clandestine cocaine factory where cocaine is manufactured for illegal export, to generate much needed foreign currency.

This is the current state of North Korean Catholicism.

I do not have any reason to believe that the church is used to produce cocaine since it has been effective at generating revenue and assets from abroad (especially South Korea) through more “traditional” methods–such as facilitating the recent delegation.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea owes about 1.8 trillion won (US$1.5 billion) to South Korea in food and other shipments, with its first repayment due next June, but chances of repayment are slim given the country’s crumbling economy, a government report said Monday.

The debt is for food, railway equipment and raw materials South Korea has provided to its impoverished communist neighbor in the form of loans over the past decade, according to the Unification Ministry report submitted for the annual parliamentary audit.

South Korea had been one of the largest aid providers to the North, but such shipments were halted after President Lee Myung-bak took office in early 2008 with a pledge to link aid to progress in efforts to end Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programs.

Repayment of the loans was scheduled over 20 years with a 10-year grace period, at 1 percent annual interest. The North is scheduled to make its first repayment in June of next year for a $5.83 million food loan extended in 2000.

South Korean officials, however, have cast doubt on that repayment given the North’s dire economic situation.

The DPRK remains in debt default from loans taken in the 1960s and 1970s. The Russians are in talks to forgive DPRK debts (Likely in connection with developments of the Rason economic zone and/or natural gas pipeline).

You can learn more about speculating on the repayment of North Korean debt here.

Pictured above (Google Earth): Hyesan Youth Copper Mine.  See in Google Maps here.

According to Xinhua (China):

Hyesan-China Joint Venture Mineral Company, a large joint project between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), started operation at Hyesan of Ryanggang province on Monday.

The mineral company was jointly set up by Wanxiang Resources Limited Company of China and the Ministry of Mining Industries of the DPRK on Nov. 1, 2007. Its main business was to produce and sell copper.

DPRK Mining Industries Minister Kang Min Chol and Chinese ambassador Liu Hongcai attended the opening ceremony.

Kim Chol, chairman of the people’s committee of the Ryanggang province, said at the ceremony that the joint venture was one of the symbols of the development of the DPRK-China friendship and would be a model of modernization, science and economic benefits.

Liu believed the company would make profits for both sides, benefit the two peoples and promote traditional China-DPRK friendship.

According to Reuters:

The mine was located a few miles from the Chinese city of Changbai in the northeastern province of Jilin and was 51 percent owned by Wanxiang, a source with direct knowledge of the project told Reuters on Tuesday.

The mine had a designed annual capacity of 50,000-70,000 tonnes of copper concentrate, expected to contain 20-30 percent copper, he added.

“All the concentrate will be sold to China,” the source said.

The source said the joint venture would conduct second-phase construction to expand the capacity of the mine if production ran smoothly, but did not give details on timing or expanded capacity.

China is the world’s top copper consumer but does not produce sufficient concentrate to meet demand. The country imported 3.4 million tonnes of copper concentrate in the first seven months of 2011, down 11 percent from a year earlier.

According to KCNA:

The Hyesan Youth Mine in Ryanggang Province was successfully updated as required by the new century.

The workers and technicians of the mine together with Chinese technicians and skilled workers completed the vast modernization project and successively ensured their commissioning.

The modernization of various production processes including mining, carriage and ore dressing made it possible to boost mineral production and thus contribute to economic development and the improvement of the standard of people’s living.

A ceremony for the completion of the modernization project at the Hyesan Youth Mine and the Hyesan-China Joint Venture Mineral Company was held on Monday.

Present there were Kang Min Chol, minister of Mining Industry, Kim Hi Thaek and officials concerned, Liu Hongcai, Chinese ambassador to the DPRK, and staff members of his embassy and Han Youhong, president of the Wanxiang Resources Co., Ltd. of China, and personages concerned.

Ri Mun Yong, manager of the Ryanggang Provincial Mining Complex, made an address to be followed by congratulatory and other speeches.

At the end of the ceremony, the participants went round production processes.

That day a reception was given in connection with the ceremony.

Although foreign investors and aid groups frequently build/ repair / upgrade North Korea’s state owned enterprises, it is rare that they are given any credit for their work in the official media.

Previous posts about the Hyesan Mine:
1. Poor electricity supply (2011-5-16)

3. Mine is flooded (2007-11-1)

4. China investing in mine (2007-4-12)

5. Chinese investing in mine (2006-12-24)

Additional mining information:
1. DPRK – China minerals for food program (2011-8-19)

2. DPRK looking to export rare earths (2011-7-23)

3. DPRK – China trade: 1995 – 2009 (2011-6-7)

4. Increase in DPRK’s mineral resources exports to China expected again for this year (2011-2-28)

5. DPRK – China mining deal (2011-2-6)

6. China expanding mining rights in DPRK (2010-1-15)

Pictured above in Wonsan: Possibly a new yacht (see more here)

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The North Korean regime has spent US$1.04 billion since 2008 importing luxury goods in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions.

According to data Grand National Party lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun obtained from the Foreign Ministry and other government agencies, the regime imported luxury goods worth $272.14 million in 2008, $322.53 million in 2009, and $446.17 million in 2010.

TVs, digital cameras, and video recorders made up the largest proportion, jumping from $115.47 million in 2008 to $215.95 million in 2010.

Luxury cars and parts came second and movie equipment such as film cameras and projectors third.

UN Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874 ban exports of luxury goods and weapons of mass destruction to the North.

The amount the regime spent buying luxury goods was about 10 times the total humanitarian aid of $107.29 million it received from South Korea and the international community over the same period.

Read the full story here.

Additional information:
1. Back in July, there were several estimates of DPRK luxury goods imports based on Chinese data.

2. The DPRK maintains appx 200-300 foreign trade companies.

3. Office 38 is reportedly responsible for engaging in trade deals.

4. On the life of an overseas North Korean trade agent.

5. Here is an American Hummer parked at the Yangakdo Hotel.