North Korean Economy Watch

According to the Korea Herald:

North Korea imported six times more mobile phones in 2010 than in 2009, a media report said Wednesday, indicating growing mobile penetration in the reclusive country.

North Korea bought 430,000 mobile phones from China in 2010, up from 68,000 phones the previous year, according to Washington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA). In 2010, the country spent US$35 million on importing mobile phones, seven times more than the $5 million outlay in 2009, the report said, citing recent data from the United Nations.

The number of mobile phone users in the communist country has grown rapidly in recent years, from about 90,000 at the end of 2009 to 430,000 a year later and more than 800,000 in the third quarter of last year, the report added, referring to data from Egypt’s Orascom Telecom.

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N. Korean imports of mobile phones jumped 6 times from 2009-2010: RFA
Korea Herald
2012-1-11

According to ABC’s “The Drum“:

The Dandong Jinhua International Travel Service is just one of a handful of small companies organising tours out of Dandong, Liaoning Province, in the north-east of China.

Dandong, a city of almost 800,000 sits on the Chinese side of the historic Yalu River bridge – which was bombed by the United States at the start of the Korean War. By night, tourists stand on the foreshore taking snaps of the renovated brightly lit bridge that connects the two countries – and the total blackout that exists on the other side.

Staff at the travel company say usually they operate tours of about 60 people per day, or 30,000 per year. But during the Chinese National Holidays, which run for 10 days in October, almost 600 tourists returned in one day alone. The mass number of China travellers highlights how North Korea – known in the West as a reclusive nuclear-armed communist country – is still an attractive tourist destination for their neighbouring comrades.

Once in the reclusive country, there are heavy restrictions on what travellers can see and do.

Photos are limited to official tourist sites and the North Korean guides constantly put the hard word on anyone caught sneaking snaps out the bus or train windows. One the way out of North Korea at Sinuiju city, one Chinese tourist had ‘unsuitable’ photos deleted by the guards.

Tourists are also prohibited from straying too far from the group. On top of that the itinerary is tightly managed, meaning tourists only get to see a glimpse of what Pyongyang and a few other national hotspots have on offer.

Tours have also been met with some unexpected hiccups.

“On one winter trip the train had to stay overnight at the Sinuiju stop, with all the passengers on board. Everyone was so unhappy the North Korean guides gave them a Kim Il Sung pin”, says one tour organiser, adding that the national pins worn by all North Koreans are almost impossible for tourists to purchase.

Now trips are closed from November to January because there’s not enough electricity to run the trains.

…

Other travel groups also operate out of Dandong offering even more favourable prices than the Dandong Jinhua International Travel Service. Their four-day tour is 2,400 yuan ($370) and an additional 800 yuan to see the Mass Games – an enormous synchronised performing arts act, staged every summer in Pyongyang. It’s 4,800 yuan ($739) for foreigners, excluding Americans.

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A North Korean holiday
ABC “The Drum”
Kitty Hamilton
2012-1-11

According to Yonhap:

South Korea has set aside more than 540 billion won (US$465 million) for humanitarian aid for North Korea this year, the Unification Ministry said Wednesday.

Most of the budget is earmarked for the South Korean government’s possible rice and fertilizer aid to its impoverished northern neighbor. It is also designed to provide aid to the North in case of natural disasters, according to the ministry, which handled inter-Korean affairs.

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S. Korea sets aside more than 540 bln won for humanitarian aid for N. Korea
Yonhap
2012-1-11

According to the Korea Herald:

South Korea’s government last year executed the smallest amount of its inter-Korean cooperation fund in a decade, officials said Sunday, in another reflection of frayed relations with the communist North Korea.

The Unification Ministry, in charge of North Korean affairs, spent 42.6 billion won ($36.6 million), or 4.2 percent of the 1.1 trillion won fund designated as “South-North Cooperation Fund,” the ministry officials said.

The fund was used to support a Korean dictionary project, a humanitarian program by the United Nations Children‘s Fund as well as operating a facility for family reunions and an association for the inter-Korean industrial complex, they said.

Last year’s spending was the lowest level since 2000 when the two sides held their landmark summit talks and agreed on a wide range of cooperation projects as part of their reconciliation efforts.

Inter-Korean relations went to the lowest ebb in a decade after the North‘s two deadly provocations in 2010 that killed 50 South Koreans.

In 2008, when President Lee Myung-bak took office with a hard-line stance on North Korea’s nuclear program, the cooperation fund‘s execution rate plunged to 18.1 percent from 82.2 percent in 2007 under the liberal predecessor Roh Moo-hyun, the report noted.

The rate had remained at the 7 percent level between 2009 and 2010, it said.

The fund was created in 1991 to support humanitarian and economic exchanges between the divided Koreas, which remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce. (Yonhap News)

Read the full story here:
Gov’t spending on inter-Korean projects lowest since 2000: ministry
Korea Herald
2012-1-8

Picture above via Wall Street Journal.  Click image for larger version.

Quoting from the article:

An examination of U.N. and Chinese trade data reveals that exports to North Korea of products including cars, tobacco, laptops, cellphones and domestic electrical appliances all increased significantly over the past five years. Most items crossed the border from China.

The data reveal glaring loopholes in the sanctions regime, demonstrating how China has stepped in as North Korea’s main supplier of goods considered luxuries as other countries have clamped down on such exports.

But the figures also hint at the emergence of a new entrepreneurial class in North Korea rich enough to buy imported goods. Some analysts say this group could represent the strongest impetus for economic reform, and potentially undermine the totalitarian grip of the Kim family dynasty.

Since 2007, North Korea’s imports of cars, laptops and air conditioners have each more than quadrupled, while imports of cellphones have risen by more than 4,200%, with the vast majority of items coming from China, according to the U.N. data. Chinese customs data show those trends continuing in 2011.

…

“The sanctions don’t work because as long as China allows the export of luxury goods, the North Korea elite will be paid with them to support the regime,” said Jiyoung Song, an associate fellow at London-based think tank Chatham House, who has studied North Korea since 1999.

At the same time, she added, “Things like DVDs and mobile devices will help to change North Korean society in a gradual manner by teaching them about the outside world, and showing them these things don’t just come through the benevolence of their leaders.” She said last year she interviewed a North Korean defector—the daughter of a trade official—who claimed she had been given an iPad and two laptops by the “Dear Leader,” as Kim Jong Il was known.

The growing demand for Chinese consumer goods is no longer confined to the political elite, according to Andrei Lankov, a leading expert on North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul.

He estimated that the political elite consists of a few thousand key decision-makers and about a million people with midlevel or senior positions in the bureaucracy. Most of the rest of the population of 24 million receive an official monthly salary of $2 to $3 which they can top up to about $15 by selling things in private markets, he said.

More recently, though, a new entrepreneurial class of up to 1% of the population, or about 240,000 people, has emerged that is earning at least a few hundred dollars a month, said Prof. Lankov.

“This growing demand for luxury goods is being driven by the new bourgeoisie,” he said. He said he had met a defector who as early as 2008 claimed to have been earning $1,000 a month by importing tobacco from China and selling it in North Korea in fake packaging.

It is impossible to verify who precisely is driving the demand for Chinese consumer goods. North Korea does not publicize any kind of trade data, let alone allow independent market research. But other countries do report their exports to North Korea, and figures through the end of 2010 are compiled in the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, or UN Comtrade. China’s customs authorities provide data for its exports to North Korea through last November.

Among the exports of liquor to North Korea from Hong Kong in 2010 were 839 bottles of unidentified spirits, worth an average of $159 each, and 17 bottles of “spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc” worth $145 each, according to the U.N. figures.

In 2010, North Korea also imported 14 color video screens from the Netherlands—worth an average $8,147 each—and about 50,000 bottles of wine from Chile, France, South Africa and other countries, as well as 3,559 sets of videogames from China, the U.N. data show.

Some of this might have been to cater to the small number of tourists, diplomats and foreign businesspeople in the country. Many items, however, were clearly destined for North Koreans. Cars, for example, are one of the highest status symbols, and are often given as gifts by the state to loyal senior officials.

In 2010 alone, North Korea imported 3,191 cars, the vast majority from China—although one, valued at $59,976, placing it in the luxury category. came from Germany.

One of the most striking figures is a dramatic increase in imports of mobile telephones—ownership of which was once considered a crime. In 2010 alone, the country imported 433,183 mobile phones, almost all from China, and with an average value of $81 each. Egyptian telecoms company Orascom, which launched North Korea’s first and only mobile network in 2008, said that its North Korean network had 809,000 subscribers at the end of the third quarter of 2011.

Read the full story here:
Luxuries Flow Into North Korea
Wall Street Journal
Jeremy Page
2012-1-7

According to KBS:

The Voice of America reported on Wednesday that the World Food Program said North Korean authorities distributed 375 grams of food to every citizen in December.

A spokesman for the WFP quoted a North Korean government report saying that 200 grams of food were rationed per head in July through September. But it went on to explain that the amount increased to 355 grams in October, 365 grams in November and 375 grams in December.

The North Korean government cited the fall harvest as a reason for the increased food distribution. According to the WFP, the North Korean government aims to raise rations to 380 grams per head.

The WFP distributed 35-thousand-200 tons of food to three-point-one million North Korean people in December last year.

Read the full story here:

N. Korea Increases Citizens’ Food Rations
KBS
2012-01-05

UPDATE 2 (2012-12-29): According to Yonhap:

The National Assembly on Thursday approved a bill that would protect North Korean residents’ rights to inherit assets from family members living in South Korea but also strictly limit the transfer of those assets out of the South.

The government-proposed special bill on family relationships and inheritance between residents of the two Koreas passed a full-floor legislative session, the Justice Ministry said.

There are three N/S Korean inheritance cases that have made it into the media recently. Read about them here, here and here.

Read the full story here:
Parliament approves bill on N. Koreans’ right to inherit assets in S. Korea
Yonhap
2012-12-29

UPDATE 1 (2011-8-30): Cabinet approves bill on N. Koreans’ right to inherit assets in ROK.  According to Yonhap:

The Cabinet on Tuesday approved a bill that would protect North Korean residents’ rights to inherit assets from their families living in South Korea but also strictly limit the transfer of those assets out of the South, government officials said.

The government-proposed special bill on family relationships and inheritance between residents of the two Koreas will become law after obtaining parliamentary approval.

The move followed an unprecedented case last month involving four North Korean siblings who successfully claimed part of their late South Korean father’s multi-million dollar estate. A local court determined during mediation that their South Korean half-brothers and sisters must share the inheritance with their siblings from the North. More North Koreans are expected to follow suit.

The bill also requires North Korean inheritors to name a local manager for the assets within three months of inheritance and report changes in the property to the South Korean government.

The inheritors must get approval from the government if they want to take any inherited assets out of the country.

The strict restriction on the overseas transfers of the assets is aimed to ease mounting concerns that North Korean authorities could take advantage of the inheritance system, according to the Seoul government.

…

In addition, the bill included a provision recognizing double marriage by North Koreans who defected to the South after the inter-Korean division without divorcing their spouses in the North. Double marriage is otherwise banned under the South’s civil law.

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Cabinet approves bill on N. Koreans’ right to inherit assets in S. Korea
Yonhap
2011-8-30

ORIGINAL POST (2011-8-11): According to KBS:

The Justice Ministry announced a revision to its special act on family relations and inheritance between South and North Koreans as the South Korean court recognized in January that North Korean residents have ownership rights to assets inherited from their families in the South.

The Justice Ministry has accordingly revised its preliminary notice legislation that it posted in January.

The revised version sets forth that the South Korean court designates a surrogate executor if a North Korean resident gains the right to assets in South Korea.

The earlier version required a relevant North Korean to designate a surrogate. However, the older version had been criticized as the executor of the estate could take the assets to a third country or to North Korea without the South Korean government’s permission.

Yonhap has more here.

The Financial Times indirectly brings up the impact of a basic economic lesson, the tragedy of the commons, in a recent story on the DPRK’s fisheries. According to the article:

Supply disruptions are a fact of life in doing business with North Korea. “They are always stopping work for different reasons, for the anniversaries of leaders’ birthdays or whatever,” said Sha Zhibiao, manager of a fish shop in Yanji, the biggest Chinese city near the north-eastern tip of North Korea.

The main transit point for the crabs is Hunchun, a bustling Chinese border town that is a few hours from the North Korean port of Rajin.

While the North Koreans queue for meagre state hand-outs of grain, the Chinese traders in Rajin eat at Chinese-run restaurants or cook for themselves with supplies they bring in.

Doing business with North Koreans is fraught with uncertainty, according to Lu Zhentie, Mr Gao’s partner. “We agree on a price and then at the last second if they find someone who will pay more they cancel the entire deal. We cannot trust them.”

Mr Lu said the North Korean fishermen operate individually – a sliver of private-sector enterprise in the state-run economy – and their crabs are sold in a grey market that local officials allow to exist. “We give them sometimes Rmb10,000 ($1,580) for a catch. Some have become rich, but I have no idea what they do with their money. Even those who are rich still wear clothes like this,” Mr Lu said, pointing at a tear in his trousers.

All three said that Chinese demand for North Korean crabs had boomed in recent years – and that the North Koreans were flirting with trouble in trying to satisfy it. Mr Lu pointed to small crabs in his tanks, saying that the North Koreans should have thrown these back into the sea to sustain their fishery. “If they keep taking all these out, I don’t know how much longer their resource will last,” Mr Lu said.

Although the bulk of the article deals with challenges to the DPRK business environment that result from a poor institutional environment  (unannounced policy changes and unenforceable contracts) towards the end of the article another important idea is indirectly introduced: The tragedy of the commons. The tragedy of the commons occurs when multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally, will ultimately deplete a common-pool resource, even when everyone knows that it is not in anyone’s long-term interest for this to happen.

In the past, over-fishing was probably not a problem in the DPRK as all activity was coordinated through the Ministry of Fisheries. If anything, incentives in the socialist economic system probably resulted in fishing at levels below the sustainability threshold.  Today, however, de-facto independent fishermen are able (and encouraged) to over-fish the DPRK’s waters so they can export their catch to earn hard currency. Over-fishing is probably not an outcome that anybody wants, however, in the absence of a credibly enforced fishing quota or private property rights in fisheries, rational individual fishermen (who are competing with each other) will be financially rewarded for catching more and increasingly smaller fish and crabs, because if they do not, the next guy (a competitor) will.

Read the full story here:
Crabs offer lifeline for North’s economy
Financial Times
2011-12-23

Andray Abrahamin and John Kim worte a comprehensive summary of the current state of Rason. The article appears in The Diplomat:

In 1991, the North Korean government dubbed Rajin-Sonbong (Rason) a free trade zone to attract foreign capital. However, less than a decade later, the zone lost its free trade status. According to local businessmen, the party secretary of Rason, a relative of the late Kim Jong-il himself, was charged with corruption and eventually executed, a harbinger for the long period of isolation ahead. Since the end of 2009, signs of renewed commitment to Rason have sprouted. While it may be too early to say whether the region will succeed in drawing investment and reform, our recent trips to Rason lead us to believe that developments on the ground may eventually warrant a shift in foreign policy by governments around the globe.

China has long eyed Rason as a potential import/export center for the landlocked provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang. However, from Rason’s inception, the Middle Kingdom held little influence or interest in the region’s success. In 2002, North Korea establishedanother special economic zone in Shinuiju and instated businessman Yang Bin, then China’s second richest man, as the SEZ’s Chief Executive. The Chinese authorities promptly placed Yang Bin under house arrest. Perhaps as a lesson learned from this episode, the North Koreans have made the Chinese government a major stakeholder in Rason’s development.

The Chinese have moved 80,000 metric tons of coal this year through a pier they leased at the Rajin port.They are also reportedly sending regular delegations of senior officials, including the Chairman of the China Development Bank, and they have invested $30 million to repave the road from the border town of Wonjong to the Rajin Port. This road was 60 percent paved during a visit in October, and recent reports from businessmen inside the region confirm that the road is now 95 percent paved, allowing for large trucks to pass through. The Chinese have also constructed a new road on their side of the border, part of the support this area has received after the Chinese central government designated it “The Changjitu Development Region” in November of 2009.Officials from the North explained that the Chinese will have a say in everything from zoning of real estate to port customs and investment policies.

Though Russia’s involvement doesn’t run as deep, it also maintains a keen interest in Rason’s ice-free port and has pledged an investment of $200 million to refurbish a railway from the border town of Khasan and to upgrade pier three at the Rajin port, which it has leased for 49 years. Rason’s third port at Oongsang was once a major exporter of lumber from the Soviet Union, and though Oongsang looks far from reviving the Soviet involvement of its heyday, Russia clearly has an interest in Rason’s success as well.

In addition to neighboring countries’ newfound interest in the zone’s success, the North Korean leadership has also shown a renewed desire in luring investment into the region. In December 2009, Kim Jong-il made a visit to the area, sent his former trade minister to run the region as party secretary, and reinstated Rason’s status as a special city, wresting it out of provincial control. Any potential investor who visits the SEZ would experience the thirst of the local government to develop the region, as reflected by the words of an official with the Rason Economic Cooperation Bureau, Rhee Sung Hye: “The future of my career depends on how much investment I can bring.”

At the national level there are also signs that the regime is increasing its focus on economic development as a source of legitimacy. In 2009, the Joint Venture Investment Commission was formed as a one stop shop for foreign investors, while the Taepung Group and State Development Bank were created to attract foreign investment. In the first half of 2011, Kim Jong-il made more appearances related to the economy and less related to defense than in prior years, and a focus on improving lives through focus on light industry and agriculture was emphasized in joint editorials that signaled policy direction at the beginning of 2010 and 2011.

The alignment of simultaneous commitment from North Korea, China, and Russia sets the scene for a North Korean special economic zone with higher chances of success than perhaps ever before. However, interest and desire may not necessarily translate into results without knowledge of markets and how to create a stable investment environment. After a recent tour of his 200MW fuel oil powered generation facility, the President of Songbong Power, Rhee Kang Chul, expressed that the reason for his plant’s inactivity and the subsequent blackouts in the region was the rise in feedstock costs. When asked about mechanisms for electricity pricing, Rhee responded that the government had set power prices at 6.5 euro cents/kwh, but he couldn’t provide further details on how the number was arrived at and when it might change again. Though Rhee was clearly an expert on the technical aspects of power generation, he hadn’t had the chance to consider that potential investors, after getting comfortable with country risk, would have little clarity on the revenue side of their equation. When this was expressed to the Vice Mayor of Rason, he replied, “We can change the price of electricity here. Rason is not under the same restrictions as the rest of the country.”

North Korea could theoretically piggyback off the market knowledge that their Chinese partners have gained over the last 30 years, but Rason’s neighbors are only likely to share when it suits their interests. In the case of Sonbong Power, Kang told us that every Chinese official who has visited stated that the most effective solution would be to pipe in power from the Chinese grid. “We plan to have a power line installed from the border by the end of 2013.” As power is as strategic asset like food or water, dependence on Chinese power clearly leaves the North Koreans in a vulnerable position.

China is clearly North Korea’s closest ally, but their relationship has a thorny history and Pyongyang is acutely aware of its reliance on big brother Beijing. With China’s rise, many other countries in the region are increasingly dependent on trade but increasingly cautious of dependence, welcoming a stronger presence from the United States, which is in the midst of a strategic pivot towards Asia.

In December 2009, the Asia Society and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation published a report arguing that economic engagement of Pyongyang by the United States would result in creation of vested interests in continued reform, a changed perception of self-interest and a less confrontational foreign policy from North Korea. Against the backdrop of a more uncertain domestic environment after the death of Kim Jong-il, and the shifting dynamics in Asia generally, a North Korea that trades more and engages with the outside world may necessitate a change in foreign policy of governments around the world, most specifically the United States, South Korea, and Japan.

The Rajin-Sonbong SEZ has a checkered past and it would be naïve to say that North Korea is embarking on late 1970’s style Chinese economic reforms. However, we believe that the unprecedented alignment of interests in the region make it a likely starting point for any lasting directional change, which is why the world should watch Rason.

Read the full story here:
Why World Should Watch Rason
The Diplomat
John Kim & Andray Abrahamian
2011-12-22

UPDATE (2011-12-19): KJI’s financial manager appears on tour of Kwangbok.  According to Yonhap:

The head of a shadowy North Korean agency charged with managing slush funds for leader Kim Jong-il has again appeared in public after five months.

Recent footage from the North’s state television network showed Jon Il-chun standing closer to Kim than Kim’s heir apparent son, Kim Jong-un, on an inspection tour of a supermarket in Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-un is being groomed to succeed his father Kim Jong-il as the country’s next leader in what would be the country’s second hereditary power transfer.

Jon and Kim Jong-un were also seen standing side by side on an escalator at the Kwangbok Area Supermarket, according to recent photos released by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.

Jon, who has rarely been exposed to media, was last seen on Kim’s trip to a factory in July.

He heads Office 39, which has often been referred to as Kim’s “personal safe” for its role in raising and managing secret funds for the North Korean leader.

The office is also believed to be involved in counterfeiting US$100 bills and drug trafficking.

Last year, the United States blacklisted Office 39 as one of several North Korean entities to come under new sanctions for its involvement in illegal activities such as currency counterfeiting.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-12-16): According to the Daily NK:

Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) today reported news of an onsite inspection by Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Eun and others to the Kwangbok District of Pyongyang, the city’s commercial center. The main site on the visit was reportedly the newly expanded and redesigned Kwangbok Department Store.

The redevelopment of the store was ordered by the elder Kim following his trips to China earlier this year, where he was repeatedly exposed to the full force of China’s commercial development.

According to KCNA, “To enhance the people’s welfare and improve their lives, upon the direct suggestion and boundless affection of the fatherly General with his perpetual concern for the people, Kwangbok Department Store, which was constructed in October, 1991, has been transformed anew into the commercial center of Kwangbok District.”

“From warehouse to sale, the realization of information technology and numerical control of all management operations guarantee accuracy and speed, and the store has been stocked to guarantee the utmost convenience of visitors,” it went on.

KCNA went on to say that Kim Jong Il listening to information from related officials, and subsequently declared himself satisfied with the way the store matched the people’s needs in all areas, from sales plans to the amount and quality of goods available.

“We must proceed with the kind of commercial activity that can sell to the people of the capital city those things that they would not be able to live without in their daily lives such as clothing, shoes, food, conveniences, family items, school goods and cultural things, and leave them with no complaint,” he emphasized.

Read the full story here:
Kim Satisfied with “Transformed” Store
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
2011-12-16