North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2012-10-4

North Korea-China Economic, Trade, Cultural, and Trade Expo is scheduled to be held from October 12 to 16, 2012 at Dandong City, Liaoning Province. The expo will be jointly hosted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, Liaoning Provincial Committee, Liaoning People’s Friendship Association, and Dandong Municipal People’s Government.

China accounts for 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade. Approximately 70 percent of this trade comes through Dandong. Currently, Dandong is gaining both domestic and international attention as the construction of the New Yalu River Bridge is nearing completion and progress on the Hwanggumpyong and Wihwa Islands Special Economic Zone is advancing.

North Korea-China Economic, Trade, Cultural, and Trade Expo will provide a place for not only product exhibits but will provide consultation for economic and trade cooperation, cultural exchanges and tourism. From the North Korean side, the largest trade investment company and government agency in charge of overseas labor export will be in attendance.

Over 500 booths and sections are ready for the expo and over 5,000 participants from foreign buyers are expected to attend. Over 100 companies and a 300-member economic-and-trade delegation will be coming from North Korea.

North Korea has recently held briefing sessions in Beijing for North Korean SEZs in Rajin and Hwangumpyong and Wihwa Islands from September 26 to 27. This two-day event was organized by the North Korean Committee for the Promotion of Economic Cooperation and China’s private GBD Public Diplomacy and Culture Exchange Center.

This event was an exclusive, invitation-only event, inviting major Chinese companies with investment interest in North Korea. There were over 100 officials from 30 different state-run corporations from North Korea present at the session to provide detailed information about 50 investment projects. The participants were required to pay an entrance fee and news media were prohibited from the event.

China’s Overseas Investment Federation (COIF) and North Korea Investment Office (NKIO) signed an agreementon September 22 to jointly launch the “Special Fund for Investment in North Korea.” NKIO is an overseas investment body subordinate to the Joint Venture and Investment Committee of North Korea (JVIC).

According to a Chinese media source, both states have set 3 billion RMB (476 million USD) as the goal for the fund; but in the initial stage, 1 billion RMB (159 million USD) will be utilized first to develop urgently needed urban infrastructure facilities focusing on mining, real estate, and port industries.

According to the Daily NK:

The UN believes that North Korea’s elderly population will double in the next 40 years, casting an economic shadow over the country’s future.

The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) revealed over the weekend that 13% of the population of the country, approximately 3.32 million, is currently over 60, but that it believes this will double to 23% of the population, 6.12 million, by 2050.

Meanwhile, the number of people over 80 will increase by more than 2.5 times, UNFPA believes.

At the same time, UNICEF announced last April that North Korea’s young population will greatly reduce, with just 3 million people in their teens by 2050, a reduction of 24% over today’s number.

Northeast Asia has the fastest-aging population in the world; more than 30% of the world’s population over 65 is said to be living in the Northeast Asian region encompassing South Korea, North Korea, China, Japan and Russia.

You can read and analyze the DPRK census data here and here.

Read the full story here:
North Korea’s Population Ageing Fast
Daily NK
Kim Tae-hong
2012-10-4

UPDATE 43 (2015-6-17): Gazprom official claims pipeline not feasible. According to NK News:

The deputy CEO of Russia’s Gazprom told reporters that connecting South Korea to Russian gas supplies is economically attractive but politically infeasible on Tuesday.

The long-gestating pipeline project would extend through the DPRK and provide natural gas to energy-hungry South Korea.

But Alexander Medvedev, speaking from a press conference in Moscow yesterday, said the project was too difficult in the current climate.

“The level of communications, the level of cooperation is not that which would make it possible to speak of advancing to the feasibility study stage, let alone implementing a project to supply gas via North Korea.”

Despite the political hurdles, the project is still interesting from an economic standpoint.

“From the economic standpoint, this would probably be the most efficient option for supplying gas to Korea … There is demand for pipeline gas,” Medvedev added.

…

Despite the numerous roadblocks, the deputy CEO of the world’s largest gas producer remained hopeful that political changes could move the project forward.

“The opportunity remains all the same, but it depends on a resolution of the political issues between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea. There are certain positive signals, but there are negative signals too,” Medvedev said at the press conference.

Post 42 (2014-6-18): According to Leonid Petrov, “Russian GAZPROM postpones Trans-Korean gas pipeline construction project ‘due to unstable political situation in South Korea'”. Here is the source (in Russian).

Post 41 (2014-3-29): According to Yonhap, the Russians and the North Koreans held talks on a number of issues including the Kaesong Industrial Complex, Iron Silk Road, and the gas pipeline.  No information on the pipeline was made public.

Post 40 (2013-11-13): The Russians and South Koreans most recently discussed the Russia – South Korea gas pipeline at a presidential meeting in Seoul. No decisions were made. Read more here.

Post 39 (2012-10-4): The Choson Ilbo reports that the pipeline talks are delayed because DPRK is asking for transit rates above the international norm:

A South Korean government source said talks have dragged on because the North is demanding a transit fee that is two to three times more than international rates.

Based on a method of calculation used by Ukraine — about $2 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas for 1 km of pipeline — a reasonable fee would be about US$150 million a year given the estimated amount of gas South Korea would import from Russia and the 700-800 km of the gas pipeline running through the North. But the North reportedly demanded $300-500 million a year.

“It’s likely that the North asked for such a high price in the first place to gain the upper hand in future talks,” the source added. “There have been no full-fledged talks yet. At the moment, Pyongyang, Seoul and Moscow are just trying to read each other’s minds.”

Post 38 (2012-2-27): The Daily NK reports on details being discussed in the pipeline talks:

The Republic of Korea Ambassador to Russia, former chief nuclear negotiator Wi Sung Lac, says there has been progress on a gas pipeline connecting Russia, North Korea and South Korea.

“At the moment it is at the stage of enterprises discussing commercial conditions, and I am aware that there has been progress. North Korea and Russia are also discussing issues of transit and transit fees via working-level consultations,” he explained to reporters on a visit to Seoul today.

Wi would not be drawn on what kind of progress has been achieved, saying, “It’s about commercial details and so is hard to explain, but it appears there has been progress on supply quantities and supply conditions.”

Post 37 (2012-2-20): Gazprom reports “progress” in talks with North Korean government. According to Bloomberg:

OAO Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas exporter, said it made progress in talks to supply Korea Gas Corp. (036460) through a pipeline across North Korea, the Moscow-based company said today in an e-mailed statement.

Gazprom and Kogas, as the Korean company is called, plan to meet again in Moscow next month to continue talks, Gazprom said.

(more…)

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2012-9-27

North Korea is promoting new inventions and technologies with potential to influence the economy and improve the daily lives of the people.

As an extension of that effort, North Korea hosted the 12th National Exhibition of Invention and New Technologies. The KCNA reported on September 19, this exhibition was a meaningful event for promoting intellectual products.

Kim Young-gun, the Commissioner of the National Science and Technology Council said, “One important purpose of the exhibition was to encourage and provide a place for agreements, contracts, and sales between consumers and exhibitors of intellectual products on display.”

He explained, “As a preparatory step, two weeks prior to the exhibition day, we gathered and distributed product and technology proposal information nationwide. We also try to meet the domestic demands and promote distribution of products throughout the country.”

He boasted that the exhibition was a success with over 1,000 orders taken for intellectual products. He also commented that wide varieties of new inventions, with new technologies, were on display and contracts were signed for technology and product development and new inventions.

North Korea established intellectual product regulations with the intention to create an environment favorable for intellectual product distribution and to follow the current trend in science and technology of the international community. North Korea also has a patent and technical literature archives in operation.

North Korea emphasized that this exhibition well displayed the strength and wisdom of the North Korean people in the country’s attempt to rise as a science and technology powerhouse.

North Korea has filed two cases of international patents through the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) this year. WIPO has confirmed that one of the patents filed this April was a cast iron welding rod structure used for industrial material while the other patent was still in the filing process and thus could not be disclosed to the public.

North Korea submitted three patent filings in 2007, seven in 2008, and four in 2011.

North Korea became a member of WIPO in 1974 and joined the WIPO Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) in 1980.

According to the UNDP (2012-9-24):

In Hanchon, a district in Pyongwon county of South Pyongan province, the small wind energy project team visited the houses of two farmers Mr. Ri Chum Uk and Mr. Kin Yong Ki, who have had wind turbines installed inside their homes. These are small wind turbines, 5 metres high with 300 Watts of installed capacity charging individual 12 volts batteries. With it the farmer says he can operate such electric items as 2 bulbs, a TV, a DVD or a karaoke system with amplifier.

When asked, the two farmers each explained that they had paid $150 for the wind turbine, and spent $5.00 on annual maintenance cost. This info was not independently verified.To charge a full battery takes between 4 to 6 hours and can last about 7 days, depending upon the wind speed and the state of the battery. In the village, it seems that one or two neighbours can each bring their battery to get it charged at Mr. Ri or Mr. Kim’s house.

When asked “what did they like the best with this admittedly small improvement“, both replied; “to have electricity when I want it”.

In this county alone, according to the local county manager, 100 turbines were installed in people’s households and in farm offices, made in the Daily Necessities Factory in the adjacent county of Sukchon. Mr. Kim Ryong Kuk, the manager of the Factory explained that almost once every quarter, he or his colleagues were observing almost 60 turbines in order to get feedback from clients. All users receive training during installation by the manufacturer. Batteries are made locally or in China.

The role of UNDP’s small wind energy project is to promote and diffuse this green technology by improving quality standards and guidelines and demonstrating best practices for households along with social buildings to directly improve people’s energy status in concrete ways.

These types of projects aim to provide support to rural populations in concrete ways. I have no doubt that there will be many obstacles along the way but I feel that we can overcome them in time and in the process improve peoples’ lives.On another day, we went to Pyongsong city to see a larger Mast (10 Kilo Watts) and a solar panel in full use at the County Hospital. We could see how the staffs were strategic in their use of the renewable energy to conduct operations and obstetric aid in emergency cases during electricity cuts; the wind turbine is backing up the work of two operation rooms and two emergency rooms. When looking through the door of one emergency room, the surgeon, operating on a young boy’s leg, saw me and pointed at the light overhead appreciatively. The whole package of a 5 kW wind turbine and a solar panel is $30,000.

These types of projects aim to provide support to rural populations in concrete ways. I have no doubt that there will be many obstacles along the way but I feel that we can overcome them in time and in the process improve peoples’ lives.

According to Yonhap:

Bilateral trade between North Korea and its ally Russia surged nearly 50 percent from a year earlier in the first half, a report said Saturday.

According to the report from Seoul’s state-run Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), the amount of bilateral trade between the two countries in the January-June period came to US$38.8 million, up 49 percent from the same period last year.

The report, however, noted such a large on-year increase was due to a large drop posted in the first half of 2011.

“The volume of bilateral trade between North Korea and Russia is still insignificant by any standard,” it said.

The increase was also caused by a 68.3 percent rise in shipments of Russian goods to North Korea with fuel and steel products accounting for 29.9 percent and 28.7 percent of total shipments, respectively.

North Korea’s exports to Russia dropped 10.9 percent on-year to $5.4 million, according to the KOTRA report.

Here are some previous posts on this topic:
1. Lankov on DPRK-Russia trade (2012-9-18).
2. Russia reported to forgive DPRK debt (again)
3. KOTRA numbers from June
4. Lankov on DPRK-Russia ties (2011-9-25)

Read the full story here:
Trade between N. Korea, Russia surges 50 pct in H1
Yonhap
2012-9-22

Following (or perhaps concurrently with) the story on the Russia – DPRK debt forgiveness deal, Andrei Lankov writes about DPRK trade and investment in the Asia Times:

But a brief look at trade statistics makes one suspicious about claims in regard to Russia’s prominence in North Korean issues. It is not widely understood that summits and official rhetoric notwithstanding, actual trade between North Korea and Russia is miniscule, even by the meager standards of North Korea.

In 2011, trade volume between the two countries was merely US$0.12 billion. As inter-state trade goes, this practically means that Russia and North Korea have close to no trade. In the same year, Sino-Korean trade hit the $5.6 billion mark. If you compare this with other East Asian countries this is still peanuts, but it is nonetheless almost fifty times the level of Russo-North Korean trade.

One also might notice that the improvement in political relations between Russia and North Korea had absolutely no impact on Russo-North Korean bilateral trade volumes. If anything, the trade declined when the politicians were smiling and exchanging niceties.

Over the past 15 years, Russo-North Korean trade on an annual basis has fluctuated around the $100-$250 million mark (in a clear downward trend). Throughout the same period, Sino-North Korean trade has increased almost 10-fold.

It is strange that these obvious facts do not attract enough attention among those who like to talk about Russia’s supposed leverage in Pyongyang. These figures are easily obtainable and yet almost entirely overlooked. This seems to be because the figures do not easily fit into preconceived notions about Russo-North Korean relations; the inconvenient truth is that the political rhetoric shared between the two countries is often very shallow and lacking in an economic basis.

To be blunt, Russian businesses have no interest in North Korea.

North Korea is a very poor place that has few comparative advantages in the world market. Nonetheless such advantages do exist. First, North Korea has some mineral resources (iron ore,coal, copper, lead and so forth) which are largely to be found in the northern most part of the country. Second, it has a rather skilled and unbelievably cheap workforce. North Korean workers consider themselves lucky if they are paid $25 a month. But none of these two advantages are of any significance to corporate Russia.

Russian mining companies have all of Siberia at their disposal, and North Korea’s mineral deposits do not look all that impressive by comparison. Things are made even worse by the constant threat of political instability and the gross underdevelopment of transportation and infrastructure in general. Therefore, no major Russian mining firm is willing to invest in North Korea (some have been courted by Pyongyang, have always responded in the negative).

The pull of cheap labor is also not all that attractive to Russian companies. The Russian developmental model does not involve heavy reliance on light industry in general, nor in particular the manufacture of T-shirts and running shoes. There is a moderate need for cheap North Korean labor in Russia itself, and so for many decades North Korean workers have been employed in Russia. But the scale of these operations is quite limited, and likely to remain so (10-20,000 workers at most).

One can of course point at two much discussed projects of economic cooperation between Russia and North Korea – the proposed trans-Korean railway and proposed natural gas pipeline. The pipeline project was discussed during Kim Jong-il’s last trip to Russia in 2011, and as a result still attracts much attention. However, we should remember that the very similar trans-Korean railway was first officially approved in the late 1990s, but still remains on the drawing board and as elusive as ever. There is good reason to believe that a similar fate awaits the pipeline project: for years there will be talks, enthusiastic newspaper articles, even official visits, but not much in terms of actual construction.

Both railway and pipeline projects share one common feature: North Korea is treated as a space to traverse. Had this area been covered with tropical rainforest, or desert, it would have little impact on either of these projects, whose main task is to facilitate interactions between Russia and South Korea.

From a purely commercial view, a short-cut through North Korea makes perfect sense, but there are many political problems which ensure that we will have to wait for many years before any of these projects will begin in earnest.

The major problem is recurrent and perhaps incurable instability which blights the Korean peninsula. Once Russian companies start real construction, they will become hostages of the complex and often unpredictable clashes of power interests in and around the Korean peninsula.

Additional Information
1. Read more about the Rason railway project here.

2. Read more about the pipeline project here.

3. more economic statistics can be found on my DPRK Economic Statistics page

Read the full story here:
North Korea lacks rich relation in Russia
Andrei Lankov
Asia Times
2012-9-18

Pictured above (Google Earth): Chongjin’s two ports and shipyard

The PRC’s Global Times reports that in addition to use of the Rason Port, another Chinese SOE has taken out a lease/investment deal on the Chongjin Port. According to the article:

The official news website of the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province reported on Thursday that the Yanbian Haihua Group inked a deal in Pyongyang on September 1 and established with its counterpart a $7.83 million joint venture company.

Under the deal, Haihua Group holds a 60.46 percent stake while the North Korean side owns the rest, to operate the Chongjin port’s No.3 and 4 wharves for 30 years.

The ports will be capable of processing 7 million tons of cargo a year and be put into use this year.

…

The prefecture’s public relations department and the Yanbian Haihua Group did not comment on the joint venture when contacted by the Global Times yesterday.

Although the Global Times reports a $7.83m price tag, the actual size of the deal appears much larger. According to the Donga Ilbo:

The North Korean regime has received 6.12 million euros ($7.82 million) of rental charges for the 3,180 square-meter (34,229 square-feet) piers and a 4,000 square-meter cargo yard from the Chinese company and paid the money to fund the newly-built joint venture, the newspaper said.

The Chinese company will invest a total of 13 billion won (USD $12m) on developing the port, such as building new equipment and facilities, which accounts for about 60 percent of the entire capital spent on the project.

According to the daily, they have already set up a series of detailed regulations on employment management, profit distribution and the formation of a new board with a goal to raise cargo traffic to one million tons by 2015.

The Yanbian group already spent 60 million yuan ($9.47 million) on manufacturing cranes and building necessary equipment, the newspaper said, and also completed work on stabilizing the 36,000-square meter grounds of the construction site.

They are scheduled to finish manufacturing cranes within the year to begin a full-fledged plan for domestic and international transportation through the port.

Yonhap and the Daily NK reported back in 2010 that this very same Chinese firm had leased the Chongjin Port for exports to South Korea and other parts of China:

The report, citing an anonymous government official from Tumen in China’s far northeast, across the Tumen River from Namyang in North Hamkyung Province, said that the usage rights have been sold to a “Chinese state company, Yanbian Haihua Import-Export Trade Company.”

He predicted, “Yanbian Haihua Import-Export Trade Company will start shipping between Chongjin port and Busan by container ship in September, and will start shipments to southern regions of China soon.”

The anonymous official also revealed that North Korea has agreed to allow the Chinese company to use the railroad between Tumen and Chongjin as part of the deal. The deal, the official said, will “facilitate trade from Tumen,” and added that the Chinese company which inked it is planning to use it to fulfill shipping contracts with three other Chinese companies.

The Chinese company is reportedly investing 10 million Yuan ($1.48 million approx.) in shipping cranes and other construction at Chongjin, and is having 150 freight cars produced to add to 50 already sent.

It would be interesting to know if the fiasco surrounding the Xiyang contract let to a renegotiation of terms of this deal in any way: Either by altering the ownership shares, time horizon, or if greater assurances against ex post expropriation were added. Since the contract is not ever likely to be made public, we may never know.

UPDATE 1 (2012-9-18): The Hankyoreh reports that quite a few ports on the DPRK’s eastern shore are being renovated by the Chinese. According to the article:

North Korea and China will develop 4 or 5 ports in the eastern coastal area of North Korea.
A source in Beijing said on Sept. 17 that it was confirmed through a Chinese government official that “4 to 5 ports in the eastern coastal area of North Korea in locations such as Seon-bong, Rajin, Cheong-jin, Gim-chaek, Dan-cheon, Heung-nam and Won-san are being jointly developed by North Korean and Chinese companies.” The source added that in addition to the two ports that are being developed in Rajin and Chongjin currently, businesses in the two countries are discussing specific conditions for development in the other areas. This is the first time that this information has been confirmed by a Chinese government official.

The Tanchon Port has been featured prominently in the DPRK media. Learn more about it here.

The Daily NK offers some recent numbers on North Koreans that have arrived in the South:

According to Ministry of Unification statistics, the number of defectors arriving in South Korea is indeed beginning to rise slightly, going from 90 in February to 116 in March, 107 in April, 137 in May, 141 in June and 164 in July.

Hyun continued, “The cost of defection has risen to more than five million won, while there are almost no travel permits being issued and close checks being conducted on accommodations in the region. However, orders from above are only being kept at a low level and, as time goes by, will go slack and the number of defections will once again rise.”

“It is true that the number of defectors arriving in South Korea has fallen compared to last year, but because people cannot survive on state distribution and wages they are going to keep on trying to defect irrespective of the official controls.”

Hyun added that in Hyesan the number of people defecting is beginning to rise because it has become harder to make money from smuggling in the face of increased border security.

Read the full story here:
North Korea Can’t Stop the Defections Forever
Daily NK
Mok Yong Jae
2012-9-17

KCNA reports that a groundbreaking ceremony for a new management board building at the Hwanggumphyong Economic Zone (HGP EZ) took place on 2012-9-15:

Ground-breaking Ceremony for Hwanggumphyong EZ Management Board Building Held

Pyongyang, September 15 (KCNA) — A ground-breaking ceremony for a building of the management board for the Hwanggumphyong Economic Zone to be jointly developed and run by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and China, took place on Hwanggumphyong Islet on Saturday.

Present there were Hong Kil Nam, vice-chairman of the North Phyongan Provincial People’s Committee, and officials concerned in the province and Sinuiju City from the DPRK side and Bing Zhigang, vice-governor of the Liaoning Provincial People’s Government of China and officials concerned in the province and Dandong City from the Chinese side.

Speeches were made at the ceremony.

The speakers noted that after leader Kim Jong Il and President Hu Jintao reached an agreement on jointly developing and managing the two economic zones, a series of issues have been settled for the development of the Hwanggumphyong Economic Zone, with a substantial progress made.

They stressed that the joint development and operation of the zone would be conducive to furthering the DPRK-China friendly relations sealed in blood and attaining co-prosperity.

A ground-breaking milestone was erected there.

The Daily NK adds the following:

North Korea hopes that the groundbreaking ceremony will mark the beginning of serious SEZ development at Hwanggeumpyong, which remained a sleepy agricultural backwater even after last June’s launching ceremony, a fact that led to rampant speculation about problems related to the legal framework for the development of the area.

However, development began to accelerate once again after Jang Sung Taek, the director of the Chosun Workers’ Party Department of Administration, concluded the establishment of the management committee during his visit to China last month.

Rhetoric emerging from the Chinese side is also more positive than it has been for some time. In a recent media interview, the deputy mayor of Dandong, which borders Shinuiju, commented, “Now that the Hwanggeumpyong Management Committee has been established, construction has begun on basic infrastructure including roads. From the 15th, the business of developing Hwanggeumpyong will formally begin.”

“Both governments have decided to develop Hwanggeumpyong first then go on to discuss the development of Wihwa Island,” he added. “When the construction of the New Yalu River Bridge and bridges to Hwanggeumpyong and Wihwado are complete, China-North Korea trade, culture, travel and other exchanges will become more active and the two countries will grow closer.”

Additional Information:

1. Chinese working to attract investment  (2012-9-14)

2. On Jang Song-thaek’s recent visit to China (2012-8-23)

3. Yalu River Bridge (2011-6-25)

4. HGP Announced (2011-6-14)

5. Laws governing HGP (2012-3-19)

6. Previous posts on Hwanggumphyong Economic Zone