North Korean Economy Watch

From the Korea Herald:

JEJU – The two Koreas yesterday agreed on a set of contracts to stimulate North Korea’s light industries and mining operations, but only when “conditions are met.” South Korean officials say the expression is a diplomatic term being used to describe the North’s obligation to allow the test run of trains on two cross-border rail links.

Economic delegates from Seoul and Pyongyang ended their four-day meeting on Jeju Island early yesterday morning, working out a nine-point agreement on various economic cooperation plans.

The talks were held against a background of hostility in the South following North Korea’s unilateral cancellation of the landmark testing of cross-border railways on May 25.

After marathon talks, the two sides managed to achieve a reluctant consensus on how to describe Pyongyang’s duty to revive the cancelled railway test-runs in return for a package of business cooperation deals.

The two sides resorted to indirectly referring to Pyongyang’s railway obligation by using the term “when conditions are met,” instead of using more direct language. Some observers said the “ambiguous” preconditioning leaves room for Pyongyang to pull out from the agreement later on.

The North apparently faces opposition from the military authorities who are apparently against opening the railways to the South. The North Korean military has demanded the two Koreas first conclude a full military guarantee.

“The implication of the agreement is that if there is no test run for the railways, there will be no economic support,” said Kim Chun-sig, spokesman for the South Korean delegation, during a press briefing.

Underscoring that the agreement is strong enough to encourage North Korea fulfill its part of the bargain, Kim said that the two Koreas would soon begin to discuss the military guarantees.

Based on the agreement, South Korea will provide some $80 million worth of raw materials needed for the destitute state to manufacture garments, shoes and soaps from August this year. North Korea will repay 3 percent of the loans in the form of minerals such as zinc. The interest rate was set at a low 1 percent.

The two Koreas also agreed to jointly develop North Korean mines and designate an organization to take charge of the project within one month from now.

Seoul officials argue that this agreement raises the level of inter-Korean cooperation to a mutual and commercial relationship from one-sided aid from Seoul to Pyongyang.

Other agreements included a joint excavation of aggregates in the Han River estuary that is located along the demarcation line, and to open working-level contacts from June 26-27 to discuss how to prevent the Imjin River from flooding nearby areas.

The two Koreas also saw eye-to-eye on advancing their joint businesses into third countries.

Another working-level meeting on the Gaeseong industrial park will be held from June 20-21.

The next Economic Cooperation and Promotion Committee meeting will be held in September in Pyongyang.

South Korean delegation was headed by Vice Finance Minister Bahk Byong-won and the North Korea team was led by Ju Tong-chan.

By Lee Joo-hee

From Yonhap:

The following is the full text of a joint press statement issued by South and North Korea at the end of their four-day economic cooperation meeting on the southern South Korean island of Jeju, Tuesday.

South and North Korea held the 12th meeting of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee in Jeju Island on June 3-6, 2006.

During the meeting, the two sides discussed the issues to further develop the inter-Korean economic cooperation project in the interest of the Korean people in the spirit of the June 15 joint declaration, and agreed on the followings.

1. South and North Korea agree to adopt an accord on South-North Cooperation in Light Industry and Natural Resource Development and enforce it at the earliest possible time in favorable conditions.

2. South and North Korea agree to discuss and then implement a project to extract sand from the Han River’s estuary as military safety measures are taken.

3. South and North Korea agree to make necessary conditions for making the Kaesong Industrial Park globally competitive. To that end, the two sides will hold the second meeting of working-level officials for Kaesong industrial park construction and discuss ways of introducing an ID system, simplifying customs and passage procedures, securing a stable source of workers and building dormitories and convenient facilities to solve problems stemming from an increase in the number of workers.

4. South and North Korea agree to hold the first working-level meeting in Kaesong on June 26-27 to prevent flooding in shared areas near the Imjin River to review each other’s survey reports, discuss joint survey plans and ways of establishing a flood warning system.

5. South and North Korea agree to cooperate actively in preventing such natural disasters as flood, forest fires and yellow dust storms and discuss concrete issues at a working-level meeting in Kaesong sometime in July.

6. South and North Korea agree to discuss their advance into third countries in the field of natural resource development at a working-level meeting in Kaesong sometime in July.

7. South and North Korea agree to exchange economic observation delegations when an accord on South-North Cooperation in Light Industry and Natural Resource Development takes place.

8. South and North Korea agree to discuss and finalize the schedules of working-level meetings for fishery, science and technology cooperation, as well as a timetable for business arbitration committee talks, visits to Kaesong and Mount Geumgang and exchange of lists and other things, in the form of exchanging documents.

9. The 13th meeting of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee will be held in Pyongyang in September 2006 and the date will be determined after consultation in the form of exchanging documents.

This was the key-note address By Nigel Cowie from an information meeting hosted by the European Business Association, Pyongyang, May 4th, 2006.

Introduction
My name is Nigel Cowie, I’m GM of DCB, and I’d like to take this opportunity to address with you the recent financial allegations and actions against the DPRK by the US Treasury. Where they have acted against specific companies, I can’t make any comment, except perhaps that we have not seen any evidence of any wrongdoing by them, because I don’t know anything about those cases, but I can tell you what they mean in the case of our bank and the budding legitimate foreign business community in the DPRK which we serve.

May I quickly first say a few words of introduction about me and about Daedong Credit Bank, our customers and their activities, before moving on to the US financial allegations and measures; and then address the use of cash in the DPRK, as this is important with regard to the financial allegations, then address the allegations themselves.

Daedong Credit Bank
Daedong Credit Bank is a majority foreign-owned, and foreign-managed joint venture commercial bank, providing standard, high street banking services in foreign currency to foreign-owned or invested commercial business customers—current accounts, remittances, foreign exchange and lending. Most of our customers are importing goods. These may be the consumer goods on sale in the hard currency shops, or larger scale commodities, mainly food related; also raw materials, in the case of the joint venture companies. A very few are exporting, mainly perishable goods like seafood and agricultural products, where they need to receive payment before goods arrive. However, we are not allowed to operate accounts for state-owned companies, and since these are the ones handling high value exports like minerals, most of our remittance business consists of outward remittances to pay for imports.

Financial Measures
On 15 September last year, the US Treasury announced the designation of Banco Delta Asia, Macau, as a “primary money laundering concern” in connection with transactions for DPRK customers, and proposed steps to deny the bank access to the US financial system. BDA immediately suspended all transactions with its DPRK customers and shortly thereafter voluntarily handed over management to the Macau Monetary Authority. The balances of these customers were transferred into special suspense accounts pending the outcome of various audit and other investigations. These investigations have now been completed, although the results have not been made public, and it is still not clear if and when the balances will be released.

Subsequently, other overseas banks closed the accounts of their DPRK bank customers, after receiving warnings from the US Treasury.

When we asked them, one of our correspondent banks explained that “This was an across-the-board policy decision due to external developments/factors, as you may be aware of, where present or future requirements may preclude us from our ability to service the accounts in an efficient manner.”

However, US Treasury Department Under Secretary Stuart Levey is quoted in Newsweek last week as saying that as more business people and governments learn about the risks of dealing with the DPRK, the campaign will have a “snowballing-avalanche effect.”

In this regard, he would appear to be true. We have heard from foreign customers conducting legitimate business here, who have been told by their bankers overseas to stop receiving remittances from the DPRK, otherwise their accounts will be closed.

Cash—a Key Point
Now, the way most of these customers get paid by local buyers is in cash. They bring the cash to the bank, we check the cash for counterfeits and credit it to their accounts with us. Then at the end of the month or whenever, we remit the funds out to their suppliers overseas. But because they are mainly importing, we tend to accumulate cash here in Pyongyang, and sometimes have to physically deliver it to banks overseas. There is nothing in any way tainted with this cash, and it is not counterfeit, it represents funds from legitimate business activities by legitimate customers, and the only reason it comes in cash is because of the peculiar circumstances in the DPRK.

An expert compares counterfeit and genuine bills
Irrespective of whether or not any illegal activities went on, other banks in the DPRK will have the same problem, whereby they have to make cash deposits overseas.

We have the most updated equipment, as well as highly experienced cashiers, for detecting counterfeit notes. While we do come cross them, they are not that common. And, contrary to many perceptions, it is possible to detect the so-called “supernotes.”

All the banks in the DPRK, so far as I am aware, view counterfeit notes as a nuisance, as, just like anywhere else, people have to have confidence in the cash they are handling. When the “supernotes‚ first appeared, our staff worked closely with those of Daesong bank and the Foreign Trade Bank to find ways of detecting them.

Banco Delta Asia
DPRK banks have, as the Treasury announcement correctly observed, been using Banco Delta Asia for decades. One of the reasons for that is because they were prepared to provide banking services to DPRK customers, but also because they accepted cash transactions.

Mongolia story
One further incident occurred specifically to us, which I would like to relate, and you can draw your own conclusions.

At the end of last year, we opened new accounts with Golomt Bank of Mongolia, in Ulaanbaatar. We discussed in detail with them procedures for handling cash transactions in a legally correct manner, as well as providing them with a copy of our anti-money laundering procedure manual, a manual that, incidentally had been accepted by our other correspondent banks.

On 21 February, our designated couriers transported a cash deposit to Mongolia, consisting of USD1 million and JPY20 million; the couriers were met, as previously agreed, by Golomt Bank officials together with local police at Ulaanbaatar International Airport. However, the couriers were then detained by Mongolian intelligence agents who took them, and the cash, to the Bank of Mongolia (central bank); the couriers were accused of importing counterfeit currency.

DCB’s couriers were detained outside the Bank of Mongolia for most of the night, whilst the intelligence agents claimed to be checking the authenticity of the cash. The next day they alleged that USD61,700 was suspected to be counterfeit; the alleged fakes were sent, together with two additional notes randomly taken from each remaining USD10,000 bundle of cash, for further examination at an unspecified location.

On 22 February the Mongolian press carried false reports, based on a leak, to the effect that “North Korean diplomats had been intercepted smuggling USD1 million and JPY200 million (not JPY20 million) into Mongolia”. These reports were subsequently carried by international news agencies.

Our Treasurer was dispatched to Mongolia, where he was subsequently joined by me, to protest this action and demand the return of the funds.

On 7 March, after holding the cash for 14 days claiming they were still checking it, the intelligence officials in a meeting with us finally conceded that all the notes were genuine; the cash was released. The money was deposited with the Golomt Bank of Mongolia on 9 March, as had originally been intended.

By the way, I would like to add that this is not a complaint against the Mongolian authorities. All the meetings I attended were most cordial, and I had the impression that all the officials I met were just trying to do their job. At the final meeting with Mongolian intelligence, they appeared rather embarrassed that they had been given incorrect information.

Effects of these Moves on DCB
Once again, I can only speak for DCB, and don’t know what Banco Delta Asia was doing with other customers. For our part, we are only conducting legitimate business, but have nonetheless been seriously affected by these measures. A large amount of our, and our customers‚ money—not just in USD, but in all currencies—has effectively been seized, with no indication of when they’ll give it back to us.

This makes it more difficult to manage the bank’s working capital, as well as that of those customers whose money was frozen. It has subsequently resulted in a sharp fall in turnover—more than 50%, I estimate—as customers’ own working capital is tied up, and they are reluctant to continue using the banking system in case something like this happens again.

It has also obliged us to expend great efforts to find new bank accounts, and make our side of the story heard to protect our and our customers‚ business. It has also greatly increased the cost of operations as the banking transactions have become more complicated.

So, there is a clear effect on legitimate business. I can’t speak about the illegitimate business, because we don’t have any, but I would imagine that anyone conducting illegal business could find a way around this, because they don’t have to comply with internally instituted procedures like we do. For example, I was approached by someone overseas offering to take cash deposits of any size we like, and have it re-sent on to wherever we want in consignments of less than $10,000 so that they are not spotted by overseas banks’ money laundering detection procedures. I declined this offer because we are not about that sort of banking.

Which brings me to the point that there is a danger of legitimate businesses being squeezed into routes that are more normally used by real criminals, and the result of these actions against banks doing business with the DPRK being that criminal activities go underground and harder to trace, and legitimate businesses either give up, or end up appearing suspicious by being forced to use clandestine methods.

Suggestion
We and other EBA members are trying to make an infrastructure for normalizing economic relations with outside world, this not helping.

During a March 7 interview with Arms Control Today, Michael Green, until recently President George W. Bush’s National Security Council senior director for Asian affairs, stated that The United States will continue to take action against illegal North Korean activities regardless of the six- party talks’ status. But he added that Washington thinks such measures complement the talks by forcing Pyongyang to turn to legitimate economic activities for revenue.

Our point is that that may be impossible.

The US Treasury department’s full report on Banco Delta Asia, as reproduced in the Federal Register (20 September 2005) states that “It is difficult to determine the extent to which Banco Delta Asia is used for legitimate purposes. Although Banco Delta Asia likely engages in some legitimate activity, the [Treasury] Secretary believes that any legitimate use of Banco Delta Asia is significantly outweighed by its use to promote or facilitate money laundering and other financial crimes.

I would far rather get everything out in the open, reporting full details of all our transactions to any monitoring authorities that need to know, that way there is nothing to hide, all parties are satisfied, and everything is legal, open, transparent and respectable.

I am quite sure that the other DPRK banks would be willing to do the same. Indeed, at a meeting on 7 March between US Treasury officials and the DPRK’s deputy Director-General for North America, Mr Li Gun, Mr Li proposed that the DPRK be allowed to open a USD bank account with a US bank—something we also would support.

This is a slightly abbreviated text of the original talk, posted at Japan Focus on May 6, 2006

Hat tip to the Korea Liberator:

China and North Korea announce joint efforts to extract oil from the Yellow Sea. According to Yahoo News:

Tuesday June 6, 12:07 PM
China and North Korea have agreed to explore jointly for oil in the Yellow Sea that borders both countries, the Chinese foreign ministry said.

‘China and North Korea have agreed on the joint development of oil resources in the border sea and signed a joint development agreement between governments,’ ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told journalists.

Liu gave no further details other than to say the two nations will continue work on the details of the arrangements.

Another foreign ministry official later confirmed the area to be jointly developed will be in the Yellow Sea.

The announcement came as North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam-Sun ended an eight-day visit to China today, a trip that Liu described as ‘successful’ while giving away few other details.

According to a report issued in December by the Washington-based Center for International Policy, North Korea has already laid claim to three northernmost Yellow Sea basins thought to hold oil.

The North Koreans had discovered up to 3 bln tons of recoverable oil and gas reserves in the Yellow Sea off its coast, the center said, citing a report by Chinese authors in the Marine Geology Letters journal.

China’s foreign ministry gave few details about Paek’s visit to China, other than to say he met Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.

But how much reserves does the DPRK have?  According to the Center for International Policy’s Asia Program,

One-third of 15 exploratory wells have shown oil, and Pyongyang may be sitting on information about larger deposits.

“North Korea has found on the continental shelf of the West Bay basin an area containing 3bn tonnes (21.9bn barrels) of oil and gas reserves,” Li Yandong and Mo Jie wrote in a 2002 issue of journal Marine Geology Letters.

North Korea says these are recoverable reserves pinpointed by its own scientists, said a Chinese expert with knowledge of the situation, who declined to be named.

Even a more modest estimate of 1.2bn barrels reported by Busuph Park, an expert in North Korea’s offshore efforts, would meet centuries of current consumption, although some academics say the peninsula has almost no commercial oil.

At the North Korean embassy in Beijing, an official dismissed with a laugh reports of up to 9bn tonnes of reserves and said the country was still investigating.

Additionally, the story points out the the British company Aminex has committed to building North Korea’s oil industry.  Chief Executive Brian Hall told Reuters, “We have involved their people and are training them, so we are trying to build ourselves into the framework of things.”

“They can take a very long time to do things, we have quite a high degree of frustration sometimes. You have to be prepared to tough it out… but the prize is worth persevering for.”

UK oil firm strides into N Korea
BBC
9/20/2004

Anglo-Irish oil company Aminex has signed a 20-year deal to develop North Korea’s oil industry.

Aminex said it would provide technical assistance to North Korea. In addition, it will be permitted to explore and drill throughout the secretive country.

Should Aminex strike oil, it will get royalties on any of its own production, as well as being entitled to earnings from wells drilled by other firms.

Aminex believes its prospects of striking oil in North Korea are good.

“We all dream of making a big discovery,” chief executive Brian Hall told BBC News Online. “And if you don’t put yourself in a position where the possibilities are high, you will never do it.”

A number of potential sites are close to some of China’s most productive oil fields, he said. Announcing the contract, Aminex called North Korea as “highly prospective”.

Patience rewarded

The company, which is listed on the London and Dublin stock markets, reckons that a lack of resources has so far restricted progress in prospecting for oil the East Asian country.

North Korea “has an existing petroleum industry and several wells have been drilled onshore and offshore over a 25 year period, resulting in limited discoveries of oil,” Mr Hall.

Aminex has been looking at opportunities in North Korea since its first visit there in 2001.

It signed a deal with North Korean officials on 30 June 2004 in Pyongyang but postponed an announcement “because of a number of outstanding issues that have now been resolved”.

Mr Hall said he hoped that developing the oil industry might help to thaw international relations, which have become frosty in recent months amid concerns about the country’s nuclear programme.

“At present, relations between North Korea and the outside world are strained but the important relationship with South Korea appears to be improving and commercial co-operation is on the increase,” said Mr Hall.

“An expanding energy industry may possibly help to build bridges between North Korea and the outside world.”

Tough environment

North Korea is one of the world’s most secretive countries, and among the poorest.

Millions of are thought to have died during the famine of the late 1990s. More recently, North Korean officials have made tentative steps towards economic reforms similar to those implemented by China, one of its few allies. But tensions over the country’s nuclear programme remain a stumbling block to investment.

Aminex has existing operations in the US, Russia and Tanzania.

From the Daily NK:

In North Korea, South Korean dramas are confidentially distributed through VCDs(‘Flat eggs’, as the Cds are known).  Previously, North Koreans were only allowed to watch films from the DPRK, China and USSR.  Posessing VCDs was also illegal.

According to Mr. Lee, a Chinese-North Korean who often visits Shinuiju, “Recently, Kim Jong Il has allowed North Koreans to see films only on the flat eggs(CDs) produced by Hana Electronic [the state-owned production monopoly]”. He added “Hana Electronics VCDs are all North Korean movies, Chinese movies featuring fighting with Japanese soldiers, and the Soviet Union movies”.

However, North Koreans are enthusiastic about South Korean dramas such as Love Song in Winter and Autumn Story and obsolete Western movies Rambo and ‘Bruce Lee’.

Mr. Lee said that “Recently South Korean dramas have been distributed widely, and because North Koreans see religious activities and adult materials through the flat eggs(CDs), the North Korean government dispatched an extensive censors group to crack down them”.

In North Korea, every kind of VCD was prohibited. However, realizing that North Koreans took pleasure in secretly watching the widely distributed VCDs, the North Korean government changed its policy and “partially” allowed its people to watch.

Mr. Lee said that, “These days, the punishment for [watching videos] has lightened, so watching VCDs except religious materials is just fined or orally warned”, adding, “The government does not take violators to political prison camps, but maybe Nodon Danryeondae (Labor facility), or Gyohwaso (long-term labor camp)”. Subsequently, he said that, “Because all officials of the National Security Agency and officials of the People’s Safety Agency see the dramas, the government can not unconditionally prevent from watching like the past”.

He said that, “Recently, the numbers of religious people have increased, and because of it, some people were caught watching religious films”, and “It is hard to survive in the religious cases”.

Meanwhile, shortwave radios are illegally traded at around 2,000 won($0.67) at Jangmadangs. Until 3 or 4 years ago, the government had carried out the reporting system about the illegal trades, but after the news that South Korea and the U.S sent radios, the trades at Jangmadangs were officially inhibited.

Now it was known that the small radios sold in secret are carried in through smuggling vessels generally in Jagangdo province, North Korea.  financial problems are resolved, a broker is introduced and guidance to an exile route is given.

From the Daily NK, Pastor Chun Ki Won, who was imprisoned in China briefly for aiding DPRK defectors, gives an update on the second group of defectors (who climbed the wall between the South Korean and American Embassies in Beijing) and a third group, which is new:

• Refugee status has already been granted to the seven in the US compound.
• The pastor wants the refugees to remain unpoliticized and simply allowed to resettle in the US among the large network of Korean immigrants that are eager to help them.
• Apparently, getting refugee status for the second and third group was much easier than for the first.
• From the interview: In what ways are defectors selected to try exile to the U.S? There are cases where defectors send personal requests seeking help through the internet, and cases where we get contacts through missionaries. In the 1st round of exiles, three people were from facilities under our care, whereas the others were selected by email. Requirements in the selection ruling basically include people with financial difficulties, women experiencing hardship from having been sold, and children are given preference. Also, if in the case financial problems are resolved, a broker is introduced and guidance to an exile route is given.

Joong Ang Daily
6/1/2007

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, or KEDO, announced yesterday that the project to build light water reactors at Sinpo, North Korea, has been scrapped. The infiltration of a North Korean submarine into Gangneung, South Korea, in 1996 and the firing of a Daepodong missile in 1998 were all incidents that cast a shadow on the project. In particular, the admission in 2002 by North Korea that it was working on a nuclear program using enriched uranium was the final straw in the Bush administration’s decision to halt a project that it was already skeptical about. In response, the North withdrew from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and went on to declare in 2005 that it possessed nuclear weapons. Such developments led to today’s situation.

The confrontation between North Korea and the United States does give us something to think about. While agreeing with us on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the North secretly hung on to developing nuclear weapons. In response, in 1994, we cooperated with the United States but were not even allowed into the negotiations yet we still agreed to cover 70 percent of the cost of the light water reactor project. That may have been inevitable, because South Korea was the country most threatened. Nevertheless, it is debatable whether the negotiations in which Seoul paid the bills but had no say in the matter were the best method. This is an issue that the government needs to ponder seriously.

It has also become clear that the changes in U.S. foreign policy with a new administration are too much for us to deal with. Even though we threw away $1.1 billion, a solution to the North Korean nuclear problem seems to be even further away, Washington continues to cling stubbornly to its new policies.

So the administration should think about what it has learned from this experience and how it should use that knowledge. One good example is the announcement by Seoul last year that it would provide 2 million kilowatts of electricity to the North even before figuring out what the North’s answer would be.

The announcement was billed as an “important proposal,” but the North has turned a blind eye to it and says it wants a light water reactor. With an astronomical amount of tax money already having disappeared, isn’t offering to provide electricity to the North another burden? Whether it’s North Korea or the United States, others have an ability to think strategically and look into their opponents’ minds. Why not us?

Daily NK
Kim Young Jin
5/28/2006

North Korea is facing the hardest “yellow spring” right now. ‘Yellow Spring’ means the hardest time of the year in North Korea. “Yellow spring” originates from how the sky looks yellow because of starvation.

Mr. Lee Hyun Soo (46) who crossed the Tumen River on 15 May said, “It is hard to endure day by day”.

Mr. Lee, head of a household of four said, “Rumors of people going to China and South Korea go around. I tried not to cross the border, but I did because of my family members who are starving”. He complained, “The government have been acting like they would give us food for a long time, but they deceived us”.

Recently, North Koreans who cannot make their ends meet like Mr. Lee started to cross the Tumen River again. The reporter met 5 North Koreans including Mr. Lee. They met with the reporter at a secret place in Yanji, and expressed strong discontents about the situation of food shortage in North Korea and the policy regarding food distribution system.

Mr. Choi Young Nam (37) said, “I have been waiting since the 1st of April. I know that there are even less rice in spring, so where would the rice come from? They cannot deceive us like this”. Mr. Choi said. “In January and February, rice for 2~3 days were given to the old and supporting families. After that, we bought the rice at Jangmadang price at the distribution center”.

The official price of rice is 45won($0.015) for rice and 25won($0.0083) for corn. After North Korea resumed its food distribution system, the government regulated the rice transaction at Jangmadang while selling rice at 950 won($0.32) and corn at 350 won($0.12), which is same as Jangmadang price. Recently, price at Jangmadang went over 1300 won($0.433) and the price at distribution center went up accordingly.
“Similar To The Situation At The End Of Food Shortage In 1998”

They say, “Family of those who work at the government, police and national security agency store up food for one year. People who work at powerful organizations such as Office #5 (foreign currency earning office under office #39 under the Party, loocated at each city and province) receive food, but other workplaces do not distribute food anymore”.

After the 7.1 Economic Management Improvement Measure in 2002, policy which orders each organization to provide for their workers has been adopted; workplaces with power can feed the workers, while poor factories cannot. People generally have an attitude that does not care if others can eat or not.

Mr. Park who was involved in ‘suitcase business’ with Chinese said, “Everyone is involved in trade, and I could not even break even because I could not sell the goods at fair price”.

Mr. Park who is employed at a steel factory in Hoeryong has three family members to support. Mr. Park crossed theTumen River to earn money by farming in China, because it seemed hopeless and difficult to live in North Korea. Following is what Mr. Park said.

“The situation is similar to the situation at the end of food shortage in 1998. The number of people who come to China will increase soon. People at the border area know that why they are so poor because they are involved in trade with Chineses. All they have in their heart is anger”.

“Living By Grassroots and Porridge, The Old and The Sick Are Dying Of Starvation”

Mr. Hyun Joo Hoon (50) who sold goods in Pyongan and Hwanghae Province says, “People in Pyongan Province are worse off than those in border area”.

People in Pyongan Province and at border area both do not receive food from distribution system, but people in provinces without the capital to start business began to eat grassroots and porridge for meals. Mr. Hyun said, “I ate corn porridge because I only received five day worth of food”. Mr. Hyun said, he had seen the sick and the old dying of starvation at Soonchun and Dukchun in South Pyongan Province.

Mr. Hyun said, “It is because the government regulated the outflow of food to other provinces as the government ordered the regional governments to distribute food on their own”. In the fall of last year, North Korean government has regulated the outflow of food by placing posts at highways connecting different cities and districts.

Mr. Lee added, “People in the inner provinces believe the propaganda of the North Korean government that the reason for the poverty is the economic sanction by imperialists, even when they are dying. Unless their thoughts change, they cannot even resist”.

New York Times
NORIMITSU ONISHI
5/25/2006

TAEJON, South Korea — At the Pyongyang Moran Bar on a recent Friday evening, a large video screen showed uplifting images of rocky mountains and an open blue sky. A slogan appeared at the bottom: “Kim Jong Il, a man who comes along only once in a thousand years.”

The North Korean waitresses wore traditional dresses in the bright colors that were fashionable in the South some years back. The singer’s interpretation of “Whistle,” a North Korean standard of the 1980’s, was shaky and off-key. Service was bad and included at least one mild threat. Drinks were spilled, beer bottles left unopened and unpoured.

But the South Korean customers could not get enough of the Pyongyang Moran Bar.

“Encore!” cried Bae Seong Wan, 44, at the end of “Whistle.”

The Pyongyang Moran Bar is located, not north of the demilitarized zone, but here in downtown Taejon, a city in the South Korean heartland.

The 120-seat bar opened in February, complete with inferior North Korean beverages, North Korean landscape posters, North Korean songs, a photo of Mr. Kim above the bar counter with his South Korean counterpart and, most important, North Korean waitresses — or, as a sign outside announced, “beautiful girls from North Korea!”

Until the 1990’s, South Korean schoolchildren were awarded prizes for drawing posters depicting diabolical North Koreans. Then the South’s so-called sunshine policy of engagement transformed North Koreans into real human beings in the minds of South Koreans and in popular movies like “Joint Security Area.”

Now, after more than half a decade of rapprochement, the North is all the rage, in a retro-kitschy fashion, and North Koreans are seen not as threatening aggressors but as country bumpkin cousins, needing an introduction to big-city life.

North Korean defectors and South Koreans alike are opening North Korean-themed restaurants, selling North Korean goods and auctioning off North Korean artwork on www.NKMall.com.

Half a century of division has turned the South into the world’s most wired society, as its consumer products and pop culture increasingly shape the tastes of youth across Asia.

North Korea, meanwhile, has remained frozen in time, a repository — at least to someone with a sharp nose for marketing — of an unchanged Korea.

“North Korea is retro,” said Jong Su Ban, 42, a North Korean defector who plans to open a North Korean restaurant, Ok Ru Ok, in Seoul soon. “It reminds South Koreans of the 1950’s and 1960’s, before South Korea industrialized. They see handmade crafts that are not sophisticated, and they think, ‘It’s like us before we developed.’ ”

The timing was right, Mr. Jong said, pointing out that only a few years ago a restaurant in Seoul with a waiter dressed as a North Korean soldier went belly up fast. “He made people uncomfortable,” he said.

At a company called NK Food, Hong Chang Ryo, 45, a South Korean who opened two North Korean restaurants in Seoul this year and is planning to open a third here, agreed.

“Even two or three years ago,” he said, “we couldn’t have done this. We would have been fingered as commies.”

Mr. Hong’s first restaurant, Nalrae, Nalrae — or fast, fast in the North Korean dialect — “invites you to a different taste” with more than 27 dishes named after places in the North. Shelves stocked with mushrooms, alcoholic beverages, seaweed — “straight from Pyongyang” — are the main attractions in the restaurant, which is painted organic green. A menu promises “nonpolluted, well-being dishes using natural resources from North Korea.”

“It feels rural, natural, unpolluted,” said one first-time customer, Lee Sae Mie, 23, a university student.

While about 40 percent of the dishes’ ingredients come from the North, Mr. Hong said, the flavors had to be adjusted, considerably, to appeal to South Korean palates.

“We had to rack our brains,” Mr. Hong said. “We all know they just eat cornmeal over there. Well, we just don’t know what they’re eating over there. So we mixed and matched. Dishes may look North Korean but actually taste South Korean.”

Increasingly, though, people are parting with South Korean won to buy goods from www.NKMall.com, which Park Young Bok, a South Korean, set up in 2003. The site sells mostly food products, which shoppers can also buy at 70 stores nationwide.

Last September, Mr. Park added an auction for North Korean paintings, which have been selling briskly, reaching $115,000 in sales in April. With South Korean officials still banning artwork with political content, most of the imports are of landscapes — though, oddly, a tapestry of the Virgin Mary was auctioned off recently for $80.

At his warehouse just outside Seoul, Mr. Park showed off some of the 30 North Korean alcoholic beverages he sells — some of them with labels slapped crookedly on the bottles, others with the contents partly evaporated because of poor bottling.

But to hear some of the patrons at the Pyongyang Moran Bar here tell it, leaking bottles, even bad service, are part of the North Korean appeal.

“I don’t know how to open this,” said one waitress struggling with a bottle of Budweiser. The waitress — who had worked at the bar for only two days and who, like many North Koreans, had never opened a bottle before — tried to get the top off, then handed the bottle to the customer, who opened it himself.

Another customer, Kim Chung Sig, 39, said, “I don’t expect the service to be good here.”

Choi Jung Hee, 37, the manager, said she had trouble training her North Korean staff of five waitresses. “At least, they should say, ‘Hello!’ properly when customers come in, but they don’t,” she said.

“Things are very different in North Korea,” she said. “Over there, waitresses and salespeople are kings because they have access to goods. But here you have to treat customers like kings. You have to bow to them and be polite even if they are rude.”

Reaction to the bar is decidedly split, an indication, said Mr. Jong, the North Korean who is opening up Ok Ru Ok, that South Koreans see in North Korea what they want to see.

Older South Koreans, who still look upon the North as an enemy, want to see images of starving North Korean babies, Mr. Jong said. Younger people, who often want friendly relations with the North, want to see the clean streets of Pyongyang.

“Both sides want to satisfy their beliefs,” Mr. Jong said, standing inside his soon-to-open restaurant. “That’s why I’ll put up only neutral images of North Korea in my new restaurant.”

Everything has fallen into place now for Mr. Jong, who came to South Korea in 2000 and earned a living writing pornography before plunging into food. He has even secured a supply of the North’s coveted Taedong River beer.

“When I lived in North Korea,” Mr. Jong said, “I never knew that this beer even existed. I’ll have North Korean beer for the first time in South Korea. I lived in a very funny country.”

Will this have repercussions in the south’s credit rating?

From the Daily NK:

On May 22, an official of Moody’s Investor Service, a Credit Rating Agency, announced that despite Kim Jong Il’s visit to China early this year, North Korea did not show indications for internal economic reformation.

On May 22, Vice-president Thomas Byrne of Moody’s Investor Service rated the possibility of North Korea towards economic reformation negative in the North Korean Economic Outlook Symposium held by Institute for Corean-American Studies(ICAS) in the Rusell Senate Building.

Vice-president Byrne estimated that North Korea failed to adjust its currency and exchange rate, and its trade environment was not improved, so that rather its economic situation was worse. Plus, he emphasized that North Korea did not show any signs of internal economic reformation.

He said about Gaesung Industrial Complex that, “If 5 more complexes like Gaesung Industrial Complex develop, we can see North Korea be in the economic reformation’s process, yet the Complex is no more than a symbol”. He emphasized that if North Korea has a strong resolute for economic reformation, “it should follow the economic model of South Korea because the way to Seoul is easier than the train to Shanghai for it”.

Vice-president Byrne warned that if South Korea would continue to support North Korea economically, it would face economic crisis soon.

While saying that, “The difference between the approaches of South Korea and the U.S is not great enough to make an impact on the credit rating of South Korea”, he stated, “Due to North Korea, South Korea always gets a lower credit rating than its original rating”.

Meanwhile, a special correspondent informed that North Korean-Chinese trader Lee Dae Kil(pseudonym, 49) who recently came back from North Korea showed a negative opinion about North Korean economy.

Mr. Lee said that, “There has been little profit in spite of trades with North Koreans for a few years”, and “North Koreans buy and sell only for living, not for investment for profits. He said that, “The North Korean government does not show even such efforts”,.

Mr. Lee said that, “After it was known that the U.S blocked banks banking with North Korea, dollar transactions sharply decreased”, and “There were people who even asked me about what happened outside”.

From Yonhap:

By Lee Dong-min
WASHINGTON, May 22 (Yonhap) — South Korea is fiscally able to handle its economic aid to North Korea, but the situation may change in the future when it will be required to spend more on its social welfare system, a senior official at Moody’s suggested Monday.

Speaking at a symposium by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS), Thomas Byrne, vice president of the international credit rating agency, said he does agree that North Korea is headed to meaningful economic reforms.

South Korea is one of three nations whose geopolitical risks are considered in judging its credit rating. Israel and Taiwan are the others.

Divided since the end of the three-year Korean War in 1953, the Korean Peninsula remains tense and volatile as Pyongyang seeks nuclear weapons it claims it needs as a deterrent against possible U.S. attack.

According to Byrne, the situation keeps South Korea one notch below the credit rating it normally deserves.

In trying to ease the tension, Seoul has been trying to engage Pyongyang by providing food and other types of economic assistance. A recent project involves an industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong where South Korea’s smaller firms have built manufacturing plants to use North Korea’s cheap labor force to make their products more price-competitive.

Byrne said Moody’s assesses the fiscal implications of South Korea helping to keep North Korea’s debilitated economy afloat.

“In fact, the North Korean economy is more unstable now,” he said, citing hyperinflation, backfired currency reform efforts and minuscule international trade hovering at US$3 billion a year.

Seoul, along with Beijing, is a major donor to Pyongyang, but it may be pressured to think otherwise, according to the Moody’s official.

With its aging society and expected large expenditures in social welfare and health care, South Korea will need a larger domestic budget, he said.

“Domestic social welfare demands would compete with sunshine/co-prosperity policy if the latter continues to increase, or increase sharply in the future,” said Byrne.

Despite North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s visits to China that many saw as his study of Beijing’s economic reform path, the Moody’s official didn’t see any significant signs.

“I don’t see any internally generated reform process,” he said. “North Koreans aren’t anywhere near the positions of embarking on policies of China… or Vietnam.”

Kaesong is, at least for now, more important for South Korea than North Korea and not enough to show that Pyongyang is changing, he said, “If there were five other Kaesongs in North Korea, then it may mean something to North Korea… then, maybe North Korea is changing,” Byrne said.

The tension over North Korea’s nuclear problem intensified with U.S. accusations that Pyongyang was counterfeiting American currency and dealing in contraband.

In September, the U.S. Treasury designated Macau’s Banco Delta Asia (BDA) a primary money laundering entity working for North Korea, saying the bank was abetting Pyongyang’s illicit financial activities.

Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary of treasury, said there is “very little question” that North Korea was involved in counterfeiting U.S. dollars, mostly $100 notes commonly called “supernotes.”

“Every seizure of these notes has been linked to each other… all of them have involved distribution by North Korean diplomats,” he told the ICAS symposium.

He again denied that the action against BDA was in any way meant to affect the nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

“This is a new approach to U.S. national security,” Glaser said, emphasizing that it was under new laws and newly created offices that steps like those against BDA were coordinated.

Wendy Cutler, assistant U.S. trade representative, focused on upcoming free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with South Korea that she hopes will have far-reaching effects beyond the two nations.

“This agreement will help underscore U.S. commitment to engage the Asian region … the U.S. is committed to developing robust trade relationships in Asia,” she told the symposium.

Seoul and Washington will hold their first formal FTA talks next month in Washington and hope to come up with a final draft by end of this year.

Cutler, who heads the U.S. side in the negotiations, noted that FTAs require political decisions that defy strong domestic opposition.

FTA opponents in South Korea plan to come to Washington to protest the launch of the negotiations, alarming law enforcement officials of both countries.

Cutler said despite press reports of such opposition, polls indicate general support.

“It’s important to know that the Roh (Moo-hyun) administration and the majority of the Korean population and business community support the FTA,” she said.

A U.S. trade official, reacting to reports of protesters coming to Washington, cited the same polls.

“You need to keep in mind that based on polls in Korea, overall sentiment in Korea is strong support for the FTA,” the official said.