North Korean Economy Watch

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
5/21/2007

Well-informed sources say Heungnam manufacturer’s production facility shuts down.

Several well-known sources relayed on the 20th that as North Korean drugs flow into China in large amounts, it strongly protested to North Korea and requested that the Heungnam Pharmaceutical Manufacturer in Hamheung be shut down.

Following suit, the North Korean government authorities was known to destroy the Heungnam Pharmaceutical Manufacturer used in producing bingdu (the alias for “ice” classified in the category of Philopon in North Korea).

The well-informed source said, “China’s judicial authorities are strongly coping with the situation by imposing three years of penal servitude to those who sell 10g of Bingdu (so called “Ice” in North Korea) or a penalty of 20,000 yuan. When North Korea demonstrated a lax response, China expressed strong discontent.”

In North Korea, the Nanam Pharmaceutical Manufacturer in Chungjin, North Hamkyung is famous as a representative drug manufacturing company. The source evaluated that Hamheung, which has recently risen as a drug production base, had weak means of living which produced the highest number of deaths during the 90s’ mass starvation and the stimulant “Ice” was misused due to the lack of medical products.

$3,000 per kilogram…dealt for $10,000 at the border

An internal source said, “During the March of Suffering, a part of citizens who even sold raw materials and factory equipment earned big money by selling drugs. Since then, everyone has followed the trend. The people in Hamheung started handling drugs with great ambition due to the fact that at the Heungnam Pharmaceutical Manufacturer, the prime cost for a kilogram is $3,000 dollars and the profit exceeds $5,000.”

The source said, “In the past, people touched drugs hoping to make a big fortune with a single swoop, but everyone is thinking about making money by selling drugs nowadays. Inevitably, the number of civilians who have become ‘ice’ addicts has significantly increased.”

Ice can be produced for $3,000 per kilogram and sold on site for $7-8,000 and at the border region where smuggling is possible, it can be sold for up to $10,000.

Another source said, “Civilians have fallen to the bedazzlement of making a jackpot with drugs, so they have gone to the border region carrying drugs and seeking dealers. However, fakes that have been manufactured ingeniously are also making a wave.”

In North Korea, as drug sales have been unyielding, it was known that teenagers who are touching “ice” are not only seriously in Hamheung but in all regions. They are not showing immediate signs of addiction, but they can be presumed as “high-risk” people for addiction.

North Korean businessman Mr. Kim, who is engaging is trade between North Korea and China, wore a sorry expression and said, “Nowadays, children who are not yet fully grown use ‘ice.’ Not too long ago, my friend’s 12-year old son was found while secretly using his father’s ‘ice.’ After severely beating him, the father asked, “Do you like ‘ice’ so much? The son responded, ‘it is a cure-all.’”

In the mid-1990s, due to deteriorated medical facilities and a shortage of medical goods, citizens started to depend on folk remedies. Civilians who started using ‘ice’ in lieu of cold medicines started using it as emergency medicine even for the flu and strokes.

Mr. Kim said, “Ice has a stimulant quality, so it is used to as a stimulant and a stress-releaser. Even children have come to regard it as a panacea and think that a little suck of ice will instantly get rid of pain and make one refreshed.”

Narcotic squads hardly have any strength

The North Korean authorities issued a narcotics degree in March of last year to prevent drug abuse. It has even issued the threat of putting to death related parties of drug deals. However, businesses that have earned money through drugs feed bribes to inspection organs, so sources said that these institutions cannot exert any strength.

One domestic source said, “Recently, a Central Party inspection group was organized in Shinuiju and came forward to regulate drugs, but authorities such as the National Security Agency, the National Security Office, and others have become implicated. However, exposing them in increasing measures makes punishment difficult, because complicit individuals can come forward in hordes.”

Drug sellers in the border region have divided left-over profits from handing over to China with participating National Security officers. The source said, “If a drug dealer is arrested, if back-money is given, even the ring-leader will be immediately released.”

The source also said that upper-class drug inspection groups can instantly become conspirators due to the high amount of money to be handed over to their superiors.

According to the Joong Ang Daily (2007-5-21):

It must have been the most expensive train ride in history. A ticket to cross the border between the two Koreas, a 90-minute journey over 30 kilometers, cost more than 2.7 billion won ($2.9 million) per person last week.

On Thursday, 200 South Koreans boarded two trains on the reconnected Gyeongui and Donghae lines on the west and east sides of the peninsula to chug across the Demilitarized Zone in a show of potential unity. The cost to South Korea, so far, has been 545.4 billion won to reconnect the sections of the cross-border railway severed by the Korean War.

While there are no concrete plans for further runs, the South Korean government has dreams of an inter-Korean rail network that would help the peninsula, cut freight shipment costs dramatically and link Korea by rail to the vast markets of China and the natural resources of Russia.

But to get there from here, the money spent so far on the test run is a pittance. Assuming that the enormous political obstacles to dealing with the North could be overcome, experts say it could cost as much as $10 billion to overhaul the slow, obsolete and backward rail infrastructure of North Korea.

That has not stopped some officials from insisting it can happen. On May 14, Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung announced a three-step plan for an inter-Korean railroad.

The first step would be to use a section of the Gyeongui Line, connecting Seoul and Shinuiju in the North, to serve the Kaesong Industrial Complex project. Transporting goods in and out of Kaesong and allowing North Korean workers to commute to the inter-Korean industrial complex by train is part of the plan.

The next step would be expanding use of the Gyeongui Line up to Kaesong for South Koreans, so that commuters to the complex and South Korean tourists visiting Kaesong could ride the train.

And finally, the South wants to operate trains on a regular basis between Seoul and Pyongyang.

“As of now, providing transportation for goods and commuters to Kaesong and allowing Mount Kumgang tourists to travel by train are current demands,” Lee said at the briefing. The Donghae Line, running between Yangyang and Anbyon in the North, will be used for the Mount Kumgang trip.

“More than 10 billion won worth of goods is produced in Kaesong,” Lee said. “More than 13,000 North Koreans are working there and commuting has become a serious issue.”

Lee has even more ambitious dreams ― the building of a rail line to connect Korea with Europe. “The reconnected inter-Korean railroad will be connected to Russia, one of the largest reserves of natural resources in the world, and China, to provide new economic opportunities,” Lee said. “We need a serious discussion on this with the North.”

Lee, however, admitted that there are enormous obstacles. Gaining the cooperation of the North’s hard-line military, which has been reluctant to open the border to train crossings, and modernization of the outdated North Korean rail infrastructure are among them.

Continuing his drumbeat for the project, after the test run, Lee said South Korea will gladly pay for updating the North’s railroad network ― and cost is no object. “No matter how much it will cost, it is an investment for our economy,” Lee said Friday. “The research is ongoing to estimate the cost, so it is hard to make the number public.”

Estimates vary widely about the cost of modernizing the North’s railroads. Lim Jae-gyeong, a researcher at the Korea Transport Institute, estimated that upgrading the North’s sagging rail networks, for both the Gyeongui and Donghae lines, would cost from 6.5 trillion won to 8 trillion won.

Kim Gyeong-jung, the team leader for inter-Korean railroad networks at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation, cited a Russian report that estimated it would cost up to $3.5 billion “to modernize the railroads in the North and connect them with the Trans-Siberian Railroad.”

Ahn Byung-min of the Korea Transport Institute put the figure at $10 billion for the project, also citing previous Russian reports.

Russia is enthusiastic about the prospects, though, and it conducted three surveys of the North’s railroad infrastructure between 2001 and 2003. The project may accelerate when the two Koreas and Russia begin railroad talks next month.

“We are pushing to hold talks with Kim Yong-sam, the North’s railroad minister, and Vladimir Yakunin, president of the state-run Russian Railways company, at the end of next month in Pyongyang,” said Lee Chul, head of the Korea Railroad Corporation. “The South and Russia have already agreed and the North responded positively.”

The meeting will focus on linking a trans-Korean railway with the trans-Siberia railway. By linking to the Russian lines, Vladivostok could be reached directly by rail from Busan. Researchers say the connection would enable freight to be shipped from Busan to Moscow by rail in just eight days. The transportation cost would be half of the current rate for sea shipments, which is about $600 for a 20-foot container.

The immediate challenge is the infrastructure. Rail is the backbone of North Korea’s transportation system, Ahn said. About 60 percent of passenger traffic and 90 percent of freight is carried by train. With two main rail lines running on the east and west sides of the country, Ahn said, the North Koreans have tried unsuccessfully to connect the systems since the 1970s.

“As of late 2005, the North had about 5,248 kilometers of rail, but 98 percent of them are single-track lines,” Ahn said, meaning that the traffic that can be carried is limited to one train at a time. “Most of the other infrastructure, such as bridges, tunnels, stations and communication systems, is also extremely outdated.”

The trains also run at very slow speeds, between 30 and 60 kilometers an hour. “The speed has not changed much since 1956,” Ahn said. “From Pyongyang to Shinuiju, the distance is 223.6 kilometers. By express, it would take about five hours and five minutes, so the average speed is about 40 kilometers per hour,” Ahn said. “But the regular trains take more than 11 hours.” He noted that there are also no set timetables and service is erratic and sometimes dangerous.

Ahn, who has visited North Korea several times to examine the fraying rail network, provided some extreme examples of how the North tries to cope. “Russia and China often provide food aid to the North via trains,” Ahn said. “When train cars from the two countries arrive, the North, under bilateral treaties, must send back the trains within six months. Rarely are the actual train cars returned, instead China and Russia often receive older train cars ready to retire from service.”

About 2,000 train cars sent from China and Russia have thus been marked as “made in North Korea” and put to use, Ahn said.

“North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung once said the operation of a railroad is like the circulation of blood in the human body,” Ahn said, “Based on that expression, you could say that North Korea’s rail network is a patient suffering from a serious circulatory disease.”

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean railroad faces huge obstacles
Joong Ang Daily
Ser Myo-ja
5/21/2007

TvNZ
5/18/2007

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, once a Cold War enemy of the United States, has re-established diplomatic relations with former ally North Korea just four months after he bounced back to power.
 
Ortega says his country has a special relationship with North Korea because the communist country helped train his left-wing Sandinista guerrilla army in the years before a 1979 revolution that first carried him to power.

Weakened by a civil war against US-backed rebels, 0rtega was toppled by voters in 1990 and ties with North Korea were then broken off. But Ortega won a presidential election last November after 16 years in opposition and returned to office in January.

He has since moved Nicaragua closer to several leftist and anti-US governments such as Cuba, Iran and Venezuela and has now announced the resumption of diplomatic ties with North Korea.

“We’re going to strengthen relations,” Ortega said.

North Korea’s deputy foreign minister was to visit Nicaragua this week.

Ortega says he wants to stay on good terms with the US but the closer ties with North Korea are likely to worry Washington, which is trying to push North Korea to shut its nuclear facilities.

When Ortega led Nicaragua in the 1980s, his main international support came from communist Cuba and the Soviet Union.    

Korea Times
Kim Yon-se
5/17/2007

Senior officials of South Korea, North Korea and Russia will likely meet soon to discuss linking the Trans-Korean Railway (TKR) and the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), the chief executive of the Korea Railroad Corp. (KORAIL) said Thursday.

The three countries plan to hold a second round of talks for railway cooperation in Pyongyang in late June, said KORAIL President Lee Churl.

In a meeting with reporters in Munsan, north of Seoul, Lee said, “We’ve already reached an agreement with Russia and received a positive reply from the North.”

If the North accepts the proposal, Lee will meet his North Korean and Russian counterparts to discuss the matter on the basis of the first tripartite meeting in Russia in March 2006.

The connection of TKR and TSR, dubbed the “Iron Silk Road,” is expected to bring enormous economic benefits to the two Koreas and Russia.

Experts say it is expected to cut logistic costs as well as freight delivery times substantially.

First of all, inter-Korean projects including tours to Mt. Geumgang or Gaeseong, an ancient capital city in North Korea, will likely be activated .

Freight transportation fares between Incheon and Nampo in the North are expected to fall by 25 percent on average by utilizing the railway instead of ships.

It takes about 30 days and costs $2,213 for conveying 1 TEU (20-foot equivalent units) of freight between Busan and Moscow by ship. In comparison, it would take about 15 days and $1,822 if the railways were linked.

The Busan New Port has recently been designed to make Korea a logistics hub in Northeast Asia.

The port is likely to provide another advantage when the railroad among the two Koreas and Russia is connected.

It will become both the starting and ending point of the “Iron Silk Road,” crossing the Eurasian continent via the Trans-Siberian, Trans-Manchurian and Trans-China railways.

The port authority plans to build a logistics complex on a 1.2 million-square-meter lot in the northern container pier of the new port by 2008.

Washington Post
Glenn Kessler
5/17/2007

Wachovia Bank Considering State Department Request

Wachovia Corp. said yesterday that it is considering a request from the State Department to transfer tainted money tied to North Korea from an overseas bank blacklisted earlier this year by the Treasury Department.

The State Department has scrambled to persuade banks around the world — including U.S. banks — to transfer the money, but financial institutions have been unwilling to shoulder the risk, because they do not want to run afoul of the Treasury Department. The failure to find a willing bank has left in limbo a deal inked in February that the Bush administration had called a breakthrough in the impasse over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Pyongyang was supposed to shut down its reactor at Yongbyon by April 14, but has refused to do so until $25 million it holds in the blacklisted bank, Banco Delta Asia, is released. The bank is located in the Chinese special administrative region of Macao.

In response to an inquiry, spokeswoman Christy Phillips-Brown of Wachovia said that the Charlotte-based bank had “been asked, on a nonprofit basis, by the U.S. State Department to help them process an interbank transfer of funds held at other banks, which are the subject of negotiations with North Korea,” adding: “We have agreed to consider this request, and our discussions with various government officials are continuing.”

Phillips-Brown said that Wachovia, which had been a U.S. correspondent bank for the Macao bank, is “fully compliant” with sanctions involving North Korea but that “we take any request for assistance from our government seriously and endeavor to cooperate whenever possible.” She added that the bank “would not agree to any request without appropriate approvals from our regulators.”

The United States agreed in February to end a banking investigation that had frozen about $25 million in North Korean money, but in March the Treasury Department cut off the Macao bank from the U.S. financial system. Treasury officials said that nearly half of the money was obtained through illicit activities, such as money laundering and counterfeiting. But in an effort to win North Korea’s cooperation, U.S. officials agreed to return all of the money to Pyongyang. Yet the transfer has proved impossible to arrange.

U.S. government officials first disclosed the request made to Wachovia. Treasury officials declined to comment, but sources said that many officials are dismayed that the administration is now asking a major U.S. bank to work around an order issued two months ago. Some White House officials have also objected to using a U.S. bank, but Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice supports the possible deal with Wachovia.

“I can assure you . . . we are not going to allow $25 million or even $26 million to get between us and a deal that will finally do something about nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula,” Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill told the Korea Society on Tuesday. “We are going after this problem until we solve this problem.”

The Treasury Department has not been involved in the effort to find a financial institution to handle the money, leaving the search to the State Department. But Treasury would need to grant significant waivers, such as special permission for a U.S. bank to deal with Banco Delta Asia. One senior U.S. official said that it is not clear “what universe of waivers” would be needed to ease the bank’s concerns that it would not be putting its reputation at risk.

Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov told the RIA Novosti news agency yesterday that Russian banks had refused to handle the transfer. “Until the U.S. Treasury lifts restrictions on operations with Banco Delta Asia, no sensible banks will deal with transfers of North Korean funds,” he said.

Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
5/16/2007

For decades, tourists visiting North Korea have been brought to a 200-room, 70,000-square-meter palace completed in 1978 that displays presents to Kim Il Sung, the “Great Leader,” who died in 1994.

Starting with Joseph Stalin’s 1945 gift of a bulletproof railway carriage, the items include a stuffed bird from American evangelist Billy Graham and a piece of the Berlin Wall donated by a German writer.

These days most visiting foreign dignitaries bring gifts for Kim’s eldest son and successor, Kim Jong Il, 65. The junior Kim’s loot is housed in a 20,000-square-meter (215,278-square- foot) annex that was completed in 1996 — a time when a famine was starving tens of thousands of North Koreans.

Why would the country have spent vast sums on four-ton bronze doors and polished marble floors? “Our people couldn’t display all these precious gifts in a poor palace,” says tour guide Hong Myong Gun. “So we built this palace with our best.”

The gifts in the windowless “International Friendship Exhibition” at Mt. Myohyang, a two-hour drive north of the capital, Pyongyang, range from the trivial to the grandiose.

Cable News Network founder Ted Turner donated paperweights with the CNN logo. A tribal chief in Nigeria offered a throne featuring carved lions, with matching crown and walking stick. Romanian communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu brought the stuffed head of a bear he had hunted and killed.

Giving and Receiving

In Asia, the protocol of gift-giving has been well established since Chinese emperors began expecting visitors to bear tribute. The Chinese know how to give as well as to receive: Pride of place in the exhibit goes to one of their presents, a life-sized wax figure of Kim Il Sung standing on a three-dimensional representation of a lake shore.

Reverent music, calculated to induce bowing, plays in the background of the posthumous gift, the final exhibit viewed by visitors to the hall.

The elder Kim’s title of President for Eternity makes him the world’s only dead head of state, and Hong says he continues to receive gifts. As of last year, his presents numbered 221,411.

“No other president could draw so many presents, so our people live in pride,” she says. “Except for this place, where can you see such a sight?”

The annex for Kim Jong Il, whose titles include secretary general of the Workers’ Party and chairman of the Military Commission, houses 55,423 additional presents, Hong says. As with his father’s gifts, most of them were never used but were immediately donated to the exhibition.

A Dynasty Sedan

Some highlights in the annex: a 1998 luxury sedan from the founder of South Korea’s Hyundai group — the model named, appropriately enough, Dynasty — and two roomfuls of carved, gilded furniture from South Korea’s Ace Bed Co.

From time to time, groups of uniformed soldiers troop past to see the gifts. A high percentage of them are five feet tall or shorter. In the 1990s, North Korea reduced the minimum height for military service to 148 centimeters (4 foot 9 inches) from 150 centimeters and the minimum weight to 43 kilograms (95 pounds) from 48 kilograms, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

A 2004 World Food Program nutritional survey found that 37 percent of North Korean children suffered chronic malnutrition. The state “bears central responsibility” for the shrinking of North Koreans, says Marcus Noland of Washington’s Peterson Institute for International Economics, co-author of a new book about the famine.

Freeing Up Foreign Exchange

“As aid began arriving, the North Koreans cut commercial food imports, freeing up foreign exchange,” Noland said in an e-mail exchange.

The saved money was used to purchase surplus military aircraft from Kazakhstan and to build monuments “to the recently departed Great Leader Kim Il Sung and his son,” Noland says. If the regime had maintained the rate of commercial food imports during the 1990s, using aid as a supplement instead of a substitute, he says, “the famine could have been avoided.”

Noland estimates the death toll at 600,000 to 1 million; others have said as many as 4 million people may have died.

Tour guide Hong, 27, places the blame elsewhere. “From 1993 to 2000 our people suffered from countless natural disasters and also from other pressure in the economic field owing to the U.S. aggressors,” she says, referring to sanctions. Even during such hardships, she says, constructing the annex with the best materials was “the greatest desire of our people.”

As she speaks, there is a brief power blackout, a frequent occurrence in the energy-short country. When the lights come back on, Hong continues.

“Our people are very grateful because the Great Leader Kim Jong Il sent all the gifts here for the people to look at freely,” she says. “It was our duty to preserve them and show them to the new generation.”

Korea Herald
5/16/2007

A group of Korean-Americans will fly to North Korea on Wednesday for what will be the first family reunion for those living abroad, Yonhap News Agency said.

The group of 15 people will enter Pyongyang through Shenyang, China, by airplane and begin an eight-day visit that will include face-to-face reunions with family members, a view of the North Korean Arirang Festival and a tour of the Panmunjom truce village.

South and North Koreans began family reunions in 1985, but this is the first time that ethnic Koreans living abroad have been officially allowed into the North to see their kin.

Shin Nam-ho, head of the Los Angeles branch of South Korea’s National Unification Advisory Council, visited Pyongyang in February to negotiate the reunion.

The group takes with it some 2,000 bags of fertilizer and vitamin sets for children in the North.

Joong Ang Daily
Lee Yang-soo and Brian Lee
5/16/2007

With an eye on future transportation infrastructure, both Russia and China are courting North Korea to get in on the development of Najin port, in the far north of the country near the Russian border.

A Foreign Ministry official said yesterday that Russian Railways President Vladimir Yakunin is scheduled to visit North Korea to discuss launching a project aimed at improving and repairing a railroad from Najin to Khasan, just across the border into Russia.

Yakunin told former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who visited Russia last month, that President Vladimir Putin had great interest in the project and Russia was hoping for the active participation of South Korean companies, the official said. The railway official visited Seoul in July last year to discuss the project with South Korean companies. The issue was also discussed in March at a bilateral meeting with Russia on economic cooperation.

A government official said that Russia wants to use Najin port as a logistics hub, but is also intending to develop the port into a base for future development of oil and natural gas in Siberia. The ultimate goal would be to connect the trans-Siberian railway with an inter-Korean railway system.

Beijing also has its eye on the North Korean port, which it envisions as part of its grand design to build a transport network that stretches from the Indian Ocean to the North Pacific.

“Najin Port is near the Jilin area and China’s own ports in the area have already reached their full capacity,” a government official said yesterday.

Beijing has recently notified Pyongyang that it is willing to spend $1 billion to develop port facilities, build railroads connecting the port to China and improve existing infrastructure such as highways, the official said.

In a report published earlier this year, Cho Myung-chul, a researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, predicted that China would use investments in the North’s ports and railroads to extend its own infrastructure for export and import purposes. China has made similar investments in Burma and Bangladesh, among others.

Joong Ang Daily
Hwang Young-jin
5/15/2007

North Korean trade with the EU and Japan went into a free fall last year, but China helped pick up the slack.

Missile and nuclear tests interfered with North Korean trade in 2006, leading to the country’s first decrease in five years, a report from the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency said. Decreases in trade with the West caused by political problems were the biggest culprit, the agency said.

North Korean exports to Japan fell 41 percent while imports from Japan dropped 30 percent. Trade with the European Union went down 23 percent in exports and 18 percent in imports. The European Union and Japan are the world’s first- and third-largest economies. Trade with the world’s second-largest economy, the United States, was practically zero.

But trade with China, the nation closest to the North politically and geographically, served as a buffer to reduce the impact of the large drops in European and American trade, so the North’s overall trade figures didn’t change much, the agency said.

Almost 60 percent of North Korea’s trade is conducted with China. The North’s next-biggest trade partner was Thailand, which accounted for 12.5 percent.

The communist country’s trade volume in 2006 fell 0.2 percent, with exports dropping 5.2 percent to $947 million and imports increasing 2.3 percent to $2 billion. Trade has been growing since the start of the new millennium. In 2005, the total trade topped a record $3 billion.

With an international economic blockade in place, trade relations with Japan and the European Union got worse.

The Kotra report said the Feb. 13 agreement reached during the six-nation talks in Beijing regarding the nuclear issue is a positive signal for the recovery of North Korean trade, but it is up to North Korea whether to act on its commitments and allow trade to recover.

Inter-Korean trade was not considered in yesterday’s report. Trade between the two Koreas reached $1.3 billion in 2006, a 28 percent rise year-on-year. The South sold $830.1 million and bought $519.5 million.

Joong Ang Daily
Lee Young-jong
5/15/2007

With a one-time test run of an inter-Korean railroad set this week, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification said yesterday it will create an organization designed solely to provide $80 million worth of raw materials to North Korea.

The South promised to provide the materials, for light industry, in return for security assurances over the inter-Korean train line.

South Korea hopes the line will be permanent, but North Korea has only agreed to one test run.

The new organization will be jointly operated by related South Korean government agencies, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Nam-sik said in a briefing yesterday. The agency will also represent South Korea in talks with the North over the joint development of a mine in North Korea.

The government is scheduled today to hold a meeting hosted by Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung to endorse a 2 billion won yearly budget for the organization, Kim said. The money will come from the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund.

“The fund the government will provide to the organization is a kind of commission for doing state affairs instead of the government,” Kim said.