North Korean Economy Watch

Washington Post Foreign Service
Edward Cody
7/15/2007; Page A01

Move Follows Delivery of Oil; U.N. Team to Verify Shutdown

After four years of off-and-on negotiations, North Korea said it began closing down its main nuclear reactor Saturday, shortly after receiving a first boatload of fuel oil aid.

The closure, if confirmed by U.N. inspectors, would mark the first concrete step in a carefully orchestrated denuclearization schedule that was agreed on in February, with the ultimate goal of dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for fuel and other economic aid, and increased diplomatic recognition.

More broadly, it constituted the first on-the-ground accomplishment of six-nation negotiations that have been grinding away with little progress since 2003 under Chinese sponsorship. The talks — including North and South Korea, Russia, Japan, the United States and China — are likely to resume next week in Beijing to emphasize the parties’ resolve to carry out the rest of the February agreement and eventually create a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

“We welcome this development and look forward to the verification and monitoring of this shutdown by the International Atomic Energy Agency team,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack, referring to a 10-member team of U.N. inspectors who flew into North Korea earlier Saturday.

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator, warned reporters in Japan, where he was visiting in anticipation of the new talks, that moving forward into further denuclearization would probably prove as difficult as the previous four years of discussions. Given the track record, which includes several North Korean walkouts and long standoffs, some Asian and U.S. analysts have questioned whether North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, has genuinely made the strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons after so many years devoted to developing them.

The next steps, as outlined in the accord, would be for North Korea to permanently disable the reactor, a plutonium facility at Yongbyon, 60 miles northeast of Pyongyang, the capital, and to reveal the full extent of the nuclear weapons, nuclear processing plants and stored nuclear material it has accumulated. That would include an accounting of any uranium enrichment efforts, which North Korea denies it has undertaken but which the Bush administration says have been part of the country’s nuclear research.

Uranium aside, U.S. intelligence estimates have said North Korea has extracted enough plutonium from the Yongbyon facility to build as many as a dozen bombs, although it is not known how many weapons the reclusive Stalinist nation’s military has put together. Last October, while the talks were again stalled, North Korea announced it had conducted its first underground nuclear test and henceforth should be considered a nuclear-armed state.

Kim’s government has based much of its power on the military, and possession of nuclear weapons has been described in North Korean propaganda as a matter of national pride. But the thought of nuclear weapons in the hands of Kim and his aides has unsettled his Asian neighbors, including China. As a result, they have persisted in the six-party negotiations despite repeated delays and abrupt changes of position by North Korean diplomats.

North Korea’s decision to go ahead with the Yongbyon closure, for instance, came only after nearly two years of wrangling over about $25 million in North Korean accounts blocked in a Macau bank.

The funds were frozen because of U.S. Treasury Department allegations in September 2005 that they were tainted by money laundering and counterfeiting. After months of insisting the Treasury accusations were a law enforcement matter separate from the nuclear talks, the Bush administration switched positions and promised to get the money liberated, leading to February’s milestone agreement. But several months more passed while Hill struggled to find a banking system that would handle the allegedly tainted money. Ultimately, the funds were transferred out of Macau via the Federal Reserve Bank of New York into the Russian banking system and, from there, transferred into North Korean accounts in a Russian trading bank near the border with North Korea

Diplomats from the six nations have suggested that, should they be successful, the North Korean nuclear negotiations could eventually evolve into a permanent forum for East Asian security cooperation, bringing North Korea into a closer relationship with its neighbors. But as Hill did in Japan on Saturday, they acknowledge they have a long road ahead before anything like that is possible.

Saturday’s announcement, while widely applauded, essentially returned the East Asian landscape to what it was in 2002, when operations had been suspended at the Yongbyon reactor under an earlier deal put together in 1994 under the Clinton administration.

U.S. diplomats said in 2002 that North Korean representatives acknowledged a secret uranium enrichment program — something North Korea has steadfastly denied since then — and the Bush administration stopped the oil shipments that were part of the 1994 deal. In return, North Korea expelled U.N. weapons inspectors, quit the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and restarted operations at Yongbyon.

The North Korean government had made no formal announcement by early Sunday. But a diplomat at the North Korean U.N. mission, Kim Myon Gil, told the Associated Press that the reactor was shut down Saturday and its closure would soon be verified by the U.N. inspectors. The State Department said in Washington that it got official word from North Korea shortly after a South Korean ship pulled into Sonbong, a port in northeast North Korea, with a cargo of 6,200 tons of heavy fuel oil to power generators in the rickety North Korean electricity grid.”

The delivery represented a down payment on a scheduled 50,000 tons of fuel oil aid in return for shutting down the reactor. In all, the February accord promised North Korea up to 1 million tons of oil and other economic aid as it takes further denuclearization steps over the months ahead.

The accord also held out the prospect of improved relations with the United States, which has long been a goal of North Korea. In signing the accord, for instance, the Bush administration undertook to review whether it could remove North Korea from the list of countries said to sponsor terrorism and to engage in diplomatic discussions aimed at dissipating the hostility that remains more than half a century after the Korean War.

NY Times
CHOE SANG-HUN
7/13/2007

A South Korean ship loaded with 6,200 tons of heavy fuel oil left for North Korea on Thursday under an agreement intended to end the North’s nuclear program.

The United Nations’ chief nuclear inspector said the North was expected to begin shutting down its main nuclear facilities early next week, after four and a half years of operation, during which time enough plutonium was thought to have been produced to make several atomic bombs.

The ship is expected to arrive at Sonbong, a port in northeastern North Korea, on Saturday, the same day a team of inspectors from the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to arrive in the North to monitor and verify the shutdown.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the atomic agency, told reporters in Seoul that shutting down five nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, 62 miles north of Pyongyang, the capital, would not be difficult and should be completed “within maybe a month or so.” His agency and North Korea have already agreed on the procedures.

The shutdown would be significant because it would halt the North’s only declared program for producing fuel that can be used in nuclear weapons. The five facilities to be frozen in Yongbyon, including the country’s sole operating nuclear reactor and a radiochemical laboratory, can yield more than 13 pounds of plutonium a year, enough for one atomic bomb, according to experts.

But the steps to be taken after the initial freeze of the nuclear program remain “very much open questions,” Dr. ElBaradei said. Those include whether North Korea will provide the agency with a complete inventory of its nuclear materials, and when it might return to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

“It’s going to be a very long process,” he said. “It’s going to be a complicated process. How smoothly the rest of the operation will go very much depends on how progress will be made in six-party talks.”

Chief envoys to the six-nation nuclear talks will meet in Beijing next Wednesday and Thursday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. The envoys, gathering for the first talks since March, were expected to discuss moves beyond the reactor shutdown.

North Korea agreed to shut down its Yongbyon facilities in a February agreement with the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan. The deal called for shipping 50,000 tons of fuel oil to North Korea, and South Korea volunteered.

It plans to complete shipping the oil by early August, starting with the installment on Thursday.

North Korea indicated last week that it would undertake the long-delayed shutdown after the first shipment arrived.

When United Nations inspectors return to Yongbyon, they will face the same problems they had faced there before they were expelled in late 2002. They will put in seals, install cameras and leave monitors to ensure that the facilities remain shut. But they will not be allowed to collect samples or access North Korean data, much less travel around the country, to determine how much nuclear material North Korea has produced in Yongbyon or elsewhere.

The five-megawatt reactor in Yongbyon began operating in the mid-1980s. When suspicions about North Korea’s nuclear activities emerged in the early 1990s, a key dispute was how much plutonium had been produced at Yongbyon until then — 90 grams, about 3 ounces, as North Korea reported to the I.A.E.A., or up to 10 kilograms, about 22 pounds, as the agency suspected.

The dispute has never been resolved, although North Korea agreed to suspend operations at Yongbyon in an agreement with the United States in 1994. The accord collapsed in late 2002, when North Korea expelled the United Nations inspectors and restarted the Yongbyon operation.

North Korea has since claimed to have taken spent fuel unloaded from the reactor and reprocessed it into plutonium. Last October, it conducted its first nuclear test.

“It remains an unanswered question: how much plutonium has North Korea so far produced?” said Lee Un-chul, a nuclear scientist at Seoul National University. “North Korea won’t easily give up its operational data.”

Daily NK
Yang Jung A
7/9/2007

A North Korean insider source said on the 5th that the North Korean government sold the fishery licenses of coastal waters at Chulsan, North Pyongan during the crab catching season between May and July for a moderate price.

Chinese marine traders who bought the fishery licenses from North Korea are large marine companies based on Donggang in Lianoning.

The ship-owners and fishermen of North Korea, due to a huge decline in fishes with the Chinese ships’ competitive entry into Chulsan’s offshore waters after receiving the North Korean government’s fishery licenses, are supposed to be going through a hard time.

The source said, “Recently, with the exclusion of the neighboring sea off the coast of Chulsan near the People’s Army’s marine head where the fish farms are located, the fishery licenses to the offshore of the Chulsan-Donggang (China) have been sold to Chinese businessmen. Tens of Chinese fishermen have bought the rights.”

The source said, “The organization in charge who has issued the fishery licenses is not the marine products association, but the No. 64 naval squadron in charge of the this region’s seashore boundary.

Donggang in Liaoning in China located in the mouth of Yalu River, is a small-size city across from Bidan Island.

He said, regarding the price of the fishery licenses, “A small boat is 1,000 Yuan (US$133) per day and a large boat which can accumulate over 100 ton is around 7,000 Yuan (US$ 922) in Chinese currency.”

He added, “The rumors say besides the costs of the licenses, a lot of money has been handed over to North Korea in the negotiations process.”

“Due to monopolizing of the Chinese fishing boats, North Korea’s ships anchored at decks of Donggang are barely seen. North Korean businessmen who have smuggled marine products using small-size boats are having a difficult time because they cannot go out to sea where the current is rough and a lot of gas is required.”

North Korea’s fishermen are saying they have no choice but to go out to the far sea, because they cannot go near the oceanic region operated by Chinese ships.

The source also said, “Chinese ships surreptitiously attacking North Korean ships in their permitted region and beating people have been occurring frequently.”

The Korea Martime Institute, in a report which was announced early this year, said, “The C
hinese government is promoting advancement of North Korea’s operations when the complaints of the country’s fishermen climaxed due to the reduction of ships in the Yungeun Sea and the decline in their income.”

On one hand, besides the oceanic operation rights, the situation is that China’s direct investment in North Korea’s resource development, such as the mining rights being handed over to China, is increasing.

China, instead of investing 70 hundred million Yuan at Musan Mine in 2005, is exercising its 50-year mining licenses to take 10bn tons of iron ore annually.

Donga
7/11/2007

When natural hazards like floods occur in North Korea, the South Korean government sends “humanitarian assistance.” But it has turned out that the government failed to monitor whether the emergency relief aid was being used appropriately.

The government spent 221 billion won (229 million dollars) from August last year to June this year to help North Korea repair damage from last July’s flood. But the Ministry of Unification said on July 10 that the after-monitoring of its use has not yet started.

After a massive flood hit North Korea last year, the ministry announced a plan to send relief aid to the North. At that time, the ministry pledged to visit the affected areas from time to time and see whether the sent items are used for the right purposes. The pledge has not yet been delivered.

The items that the government sent to Pyongyang via the Korean Red Cross include: 100,000 tons of rice, 100,000 tons of cement, 5,000 tons of iron reinforcing rods, 210 relief machines, 80,000 blankets, 10,000 emergency kits, and medicines.

“While sending the relief aid, Pyongyang conducted the nuclear test, so we had to stop; assistance was resumed this year. Due to this change in schedule, it was difficult for us to monitor the use of the aid. We will continue to negotiate with the North regarding field monitoring and access to their rationing lists,” said one official at the unification ministry.

However, many think that the monitoring, in effect, will be of no use, since the rationing of the relief aid might have already been finished.

After a railway station explosion had occurred in Ryongchon in North Pyongan Province in April 2004, the ministry also sent relief aid such as rice and cement. But the monitoring was done one year after the delivery, drawing criticism from the public.

Some point out that we should strengthen the monitoring of our rice aid, which is provided in return for Pyongyang’s scrapping of its nuclear program.

Seoul and Pyongyang made an agreement to visit three places on the east coast and two places on the west coast to oversee the allocation of aid whenever Seoul sends 100,000 tons of rice. The World Food Program, however, has an office in Pyongyang and monitors whether North Korean officials are making disproportionate allocations to the military.

In the meantime, the government sent 10 billion won (10.87 million dollars) worth of road paving materials to help proceed with the Mt. Baekdu tour project planned by Hyundai Asan and the Korea Tourism Organization. However, its usage has not yet been confirmed.

A total of 16,000 tons of materials were sent to the North in August 2005 and March 2006, but Pyongyang has not responded since July last year. Currently, the project is on hold.

“To push the project forward, we are contacting the North via several channels. But because there has not been any response from the North, we are having difficulties,” said one unification ministry official.

Joong Ang Daily
7/10/2007

South Korea will start sending 50,000 tons of rice aid to North Korea by road next week, as part of its promised loan of 400,000 tons of rice, officials said yesterday.

While 350,000 tons of rice will be delivered by sea, 30,000 tons will be delivered via rail in the west of the Korean Peninsula, and another 20,000 tons will be delivered via an east coast rail line, a Unification Ministry official said.

The two Koreas conducted a historic test of the reconnected railways across the border in mid-May.

South Korea resumed shipping rice aid to North Korea in late June after more than a year’s hiatus, as the North took steps toward nuclear dismantlement. The aid, which consists of 250,000 tons of imported rice and 150,000 tons of domestic rice, will be made over the next five months.

“The rice aid to North Korea via the overland route will be made over five weeks starting next Friday,” the official said.

North Korea is supposed to pay back the $152-million rice loan over 20 years after a 10-year grace period at an annual interest rate of 1 percent.

South Korea resumed shipments of fertilizer and other emergency aid to the North in late March, but withheld the loan of 400,000 tons of rice as an inducement for North Korea to start implementing a landmark agreement reached in the six-nation talks in February.

In early June, inter-Korean ministerial talks ended without tangible results after North Korea protested the South’s decision to withhold rice aid until the North took steps toward nuclear dismantlement.

South Korea suspended all food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after the North conducted missile tests in July.

Resumption of aid was stymied due to the North’s nuclear bomb test last October, but the two sides agreed to put inter-Korean projects back on track in early March. The last rice shipment was made in early 2006.

A poor harvest in 2006, disastrous summer flooding and a 75 percent fall in donor assistance from abroad have dealt severe blows to the impoverished North, according to World Food Program officials.

A recent think tank report said North Korea could run short of up to one-third of the food it needs this year if South Korea and other countries withhold aid. Data from the WFP and the Unification Ministry show that the North will need between 5.24 million tons and 6.47 million tons of food this year.

Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
7/10/2007

South Korea has signed a contract with a local refinery to provide heavy fuel oil to North Korea for shipment next week as part of a multilateral aid-for-disarmament deal, the Unification Ministry said Tuesday.

The contract comes on the heels of international nuclear watchdog monitors preparing for entry into the North next week for verification of the North’s shutdown of its nuclear facilities. Reports also said China is planning to host a fresh round of six-party talks on the North’s denuclearization next Wednesday.

“On Monday, the government signed a contract with SK Energy to provide 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to North Korea valued at 22.2 billion won (US$22 million),” Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Nam-sik said. The contract includes transportation fees and insurance premiums.

The first shipment of 6,200 tons will be sent to North Korea next Thursday as part of a six-party deal calling for the communist state to take steps to denuclearize in exchange for economic rewards and other incentives.

The date of delivery, originally set for July 14, has been advanced as North Korea is moving to shut down its main nuclear reactor under the Feb. 13 agreement with South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia. The five regional players have engaged North Korea in the six-party nuclear disarmament talks since 2003.

With the earlier than expected oil delivery, South Korea expects that North Korea will accelerate its process of shutting down its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, about 90 kilometers north of Pyongyang.

North Korea is entitled to one million tons of heavy fuel oil as a reward for a series of steps to shut down and disable its key nuclear facilities. South Korea is responsible for the first shipment of 50,000 tons.

In late June, working-level officials from the two Koreas agreed on the shipping arrangements. The South Korean portion of the aid should be sent within two weeks. The remaining 950,000 tons, to be split equally between the five parties involved in the six-way talks, will be given when the North takes further steps to disarm.

The cost of the aid is to be shouldered equally by the other nations in the six-party talks. But Japan has vowed not to provide any assistance to the North until the decades-old issue of Japanese citizens abducted by Pyongyang is resolved.

Implementation of the February deal had been delayed pending resolution of a banking dispute over US$25 million of the North’s funds that were frozen in a Macau bank. The issue was resolved in June after the money was transferred to Pyongyang with the help of the U.S. and Russian central banks.

Korea Herald
7/8/2007

South and North Korea on Saturday agreed on ways to cooperate in light industry and natural resource exploration.

The two Koreas announced they would carry out the written agreement following talks held in the North Korean border city of Gaeseong from Friday, Yonhap News Agency reported.

The talks came as North Korea moves closer to shutting down its main nuclear facilities.

“It took quite a long time for the two sides reach a compromise on prices on a list of items,” a Unification Ministry official said.

In Friday’s overnight talks, North Korea agreed to accept the materials at the price South Korea suggested. The North will pay the costs for transportation, cargo working and demurrage, while the South is to bear all the costs for shipping, insurance and using ports.

The South Korean side estimated these incidental expenses would be less than $4 million equivalent to five percent of the total cash price of items to be supplied to North Korea.

Korea Herald
7/8/2007

Japan should refrain from its hostile policy toward North Korea and actively take part in a six-party actions plan to achieve a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, a pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan said Saturday.

Chosun Sinbo, a pro-North Korean newspaper published in Tokyo, said on Saturday that Japan should be out of the six-party discussions if it continues to avoid the energy assistance program.

Japan, a member of six-party nuclear disarmament talks, is at odds with North Korea over about a dozen Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korean agents decades ago. Japan refuses to provide any economic aid to the North until the kidnapping issue is resolved.

Under a deal adopted on Feb. 13, North Korea is to receive 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil in exchange for shutting down its key weapons-related nuclear facilities. South Korea is responsible for the first shipment of 50,000 tons.

BBC
7/7/2007

A UN agency has denied firing an employee after the man questioned alleged financial irregularities at its North Korean operations.

Artjon Shkurtaj asked for protection as a whistleblower after losing his job in the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in North Korea.

Mr Shkurtaj said he found fake US bills in an office safe and local staff were paid in euros, and not local currency.

The UNDP denied any wrongdoing, and keeping improper accounts.

UN audit

The agency has been accused by the US administration of handing over cash to the North Korean regime without proper accounting or paperwork, the BBC’s Laura Trevelyan said from New York.

The implication is the UN allowed millions of dollars to go to the North Korean government instead of going to programmes to help people in poverty, our correspondent said.

The UN carried out an audit in June and said that while there had been breaches of rules, there had been no systematic diversion of UN money to North Korean authorities.

“UNDP has invited the individual to submit all relevant information to the UNDP office charged with undertaking internal inquiries, but he has so far declined to do so,” a spokesman from the agency said.

UN deputy spokeswoman Marie Okabe said the UN Ethics Office was looking into Mr Shkurtaj’s appeal for whistleblower status.

Yonhap
7/5/2007

The construction of a Pyongyang elementary school, funded by South Korean citizens, is to begin next month, officials said Thursday.

The project of reconstructing one of the four elementary schools in Pyongyang is being carried out at the North’s request, an official of the South Gyeongsang provincial government said.

“We have successfully collected contributions of a total amount of 987,000,000 won (US$1,070,500) from people of the province for building a Pyongyang elementary school,” the official said. “We are going to send the building materials soon to start the construction next month. We are aiming to complete it by the end of the year.”

South Gyeongsang Province has been cooperating with North Korea, especially in the agricultural area.

Governor Kim Tae-ho went to North Korea in April and took part in the ground-breaking ceremony for the school.