North Korean Economy Watch

I had never heard of fellow American Zang Gi Hong, the first US citizen naturalized from the DPRK, until a few days ago when a colleague relayed his story to me.  I have been unable to find much information on him via the Internet, except from one article (here) and the Google archive version (here). 

Excerpts from the article:

It was Vienna, Austria, in late December of 1956. Two months earlier, heroic Hungarians next door to the east had erupted against their Soviet oppressors, and for ten glorious days Hungary was in Hungarian hands.

The Kremlin feared that one satellite turned into a shooting star could infect and unravel their whole communist empire. The Red Army rolled back into Hungary with 200,000 troops and 2,000 tanks and flattened the uprising. Hordes of Hungarians fled west to freedom in Austria.

…

After two years at the University of Budapest this young “enemy” soldier began to view communism not as a submissive North Korean but more as a repressed Western European. When the fighting started, he and 200 other North Koreans helped the Freedom Fighters.

Hungarian youths had not yet had military training. The North Koreans knew how to work every piece of captured and donated communist ordnance, from a hand grenade to a tank!

After the Soviet putdown of the uprising, special squads of Soviet troops helped the Hungarian communist police round up every Korean in Budapest. It’s hard to disguise a Korean in Budapest. Of the 200 young Koreans, only four made it to freedom. The others were shipped back to certain doom in North Korea.

When he and I and a young Hungarian woman interpreter went to the American Embassy the next day, I would have bet even money that President Eisenhower would send the Columbine (His presidential plane, before they thought of Air Force One) over to Vienna to take him and me both back to America. I was stomp-down certain they’d find a quick way to let him into America.

We were led into an upstairs office at the Embassy and I started telling the story to the official behind the desk. Do you know how a comic feels when the laughter doesn’t come through early in the act? Or when the young woman arranges for her hand to be unholdable when you reach out? That’s the feeling I got early in the narrative.

The Embassy official looked on like a zombie. No comments. No questions. If there’d been a little strip-screen across his forehead, it would have read “Non-Reacting!”

Even absent the euphoria of the Hungarian Revolution, as you read this I expect you to feel what I felt. When I finished this incredibly fortunate story for our side, the diplomat-zombie impassively opened his desk drawer and pulled forth a little booklet.

“Your friend can’t come to America as a Hungarian refugee,” he intoned, leafing to a page of rules, “because he’s not Hungarian. And he can’t come in as a North Korean because we’re at war and there’s no quota!”

At least the 200,000 Hungarian refugees in Vienna would be processed and admitted to a free country. My Korean friend was now diplomatically stateless and weightless.

Thanks to the subsequent intervention of broadcaster Tex McCrary and the supposedly villainous immigrant-hating Congressman Francis E. Walter of Pennsylvania, we got that young man into America with a scholarship to Syracuse from which he graduated with honors and became a millionaire architect and builder.

Update 3: The second shipment of US food aid has arrived in North Korea.  Also, DPRK has suffered terrible rains in August.  Story here and here. 

UPDATE 2: The Daily NK reports some good news on the DPRKs food production:

With the stabilization of food prices in North Korea, which had skyrocketed during the first half of the year, the potato harvest which began at the end of June has been lifting the food burden of the citizens.

A source from North Korea said in a conversation with the Daily NK on the 26th, “In the border regions of North Hamkyung Province the first round of harvesting was successful. Accordingly, the price of new potatoes has fallen below 300 won since mid-July.”

The source added, “In the market in Hyesan, Yangkang Province, potatoes cost 280 won per kilogram. Newly-harvested barley has also been appearing; it’s a huge help to the civilians.”

Until the first week of June, the jangmadang price of potatoes in North Korea was 300 won in Pyongyang, 400 won in Hoiryeong, and 450 won in Chongjin per kilogram.

Regarding the price of rice and corn, the source continued, “In the North Hamkyung and Yangang Provinces, the price of rice is 2,200~2,400 won (per kg) and the price of corn 1,200~1,400 won. Originally, during the collective farm’s harvest distribution in December, 4kg of potato was equivalent to 1kg of corn, so the prices of rice and corn are not actually any more expensive now.”

UPDATE 1: Here (link) are the results of the UN World Food Program/FAO June DPRK survey. Some highlights:

The RFSA covered 53 counties in eight provinces (Ryanggang, North Hamgyong, South Hamgyong, Kangwon, North Hwanghae, South Hwanghae, South Phyongan, Pyongyang). Experts visited hundreds of households, child institutions and hospitals across the country in the most comprehensive assessment on food and nutrition conducted in DPRK since 2004. Key findings indicate:

1. Food availability, accessibility and utilization have deteriorated sharply since 2007.
2. Close to three quarters of the households have reduced their food intake.
3. More malnourished and ill children are being admitted to hospitals and institutions.
4. Diarrhoea caused by increased consumption of wild foods was one of the leading causes of malnutrition amongst children under five.

The experts found that the majority of the families surveyed have cut out protein from their diet, and are living on cereals and vegetables alone. Food prices have soared — rice now costs almost three times more than a year ago, and maize has quadrupled. Heavy reliance on support from relatives as a means of coping with food shortages is widespread in areas such as North Hamgyong Province, one of the worst affected regions.

Donors to WFP’s current programme in DPRK include the United States (US$60 million), Republic of Korea (US$20 million), Russian Federation (US$8 million), Switzerland (US$6.6 million), Germany (US$3.4 million), Australia (US$4.2 million), UN CERF (US$2.3 million, for CERF see: http://ochaonline.un.org), Multilateral funds (US$1.9 million), Cuba and Italy (US$1.5 million each), Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and Norway (US$1 million each), Finland (US$737,000), Turkey (US$150,000), Greece (US$ 45,000) and private donors (US$17,000).

ORIGINAL POST: North Korea’s food crisis has been out of the headlines since US food aid arrived a couple of weeks ago followed by the destruction of the Yongbyon cooling tower, six-party talks progress, ASEAN non-aggression treaty, and Kumgang shooting incident.  But now that the UN World Food Program is preparing operations, the crisis is back in the news.  From the Wahsington Post:

The main U.N. aid agency in North Korea, the World Food Program, will resume emergency operations there in the next two weeks to help feed more than 5 million people over the next 15 months at a cost of $500 million, said Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the agency’s country director in Pyongyang.

“The situation is indeed very serious,” de Margerie said at a news conference in Beijing.

The resumption of emergency operations, which were scaled back in 2005 on a request from the North Korean government, was decided after a U.N. survey last month showed the most severe and widespread hunger among North Koreans in a decade. The survey was taken after the Pyongyang government, in an unusual gesture, officially acknowledged a growing hunger crisis and appealed for international aid.

and

[…] the United States recently pledged to give North Korea 500,000 tons of food over the next six months, most of which will be distributed by the World Food Program as part of its emergency effort. De Margerie said the first delivery, 37,000 tons of wheat, arrived in a North Korean port two weeks ago, and more shiploads are expected soon.

In contrast to past practice, the North Korean government has been willing to allow U.N. aid workers more leeway to monitor delivery of the new food supplies, de Margerie said. Similarly supple oversight rules were negotiated by the United States as a condition for its 500,000-ton donation.

The ballooning food crisis began mainly because of flooding last summer that damaged fields, leading to insufficient crops and soaring food prices. At the same time, de Margerie said, imports dropped dramatically this spring, particularly from South Korea and China.

This exacerbated a perennial shortfall of around 20 percent, or 1.6 million tons, in the amount of food needed to adequately nourish North Korea’s 23 million inhabitants. As a result, prices of such staples as rice, eggs and corn doubled, tripled and even quadrupled, de Margerie said.

Now, de Margerie said, resumption of emergency operations will aim at getting food to between 5 million and 6 million people by September, which is considered a critical period because this autumn’s crops will not have entered the government-run distribution system. Quick donations of about $20 million are needed to get the new program running swiftly, he added.

And where are these funds going to come from.  Well, New Zealand has made public its intentions to fund the effort:

New Zealand will provide half a million dollars to the United Nations to help North Korea which is facing a food shortage.

New Zealand previously gave $500,000 via the Red Cross after last year’s floods.

New Zealand established diplomatic relations with North Korea in 2001.

According to Yonhap:

The areas undergoing the crisis include the Hamgyong and Ryanggang provinces, the site said, adding that the World Food Programme plans to launch a new project to address the food needs in these northeastern regions. 

Read the full stories here:
U.N.: Millions Hungry in North Korea
Washington Post Foreign Service
Edward Cody
7/30/2008

NZ to give aid to North Korea
National Business Review
6/29/2008

Northeastern NK in serious food crisis: UN Web site
Yonhap
7/26/2008

According to previous reports, Beijing’s border control policies have stiffened up in preparation for the 2008 Olympics.  The Daily NK reports these policies are adversely affecting North Koreans visiting family and conducting business in Jilin.

The Daily NK claims that North Koreans pay appx. US$400-500 in bribes and processing fees to obtain a passport, exit visa, and Chinese entrance visa. (The article does not explain how these prices break down, although it would be interesting to know how much Beijing charges North Koreans for various visas.)  China typically issues North Koreans family visit visas which are valid for three months, but if a North Korean visitor can secure a residence and employment, this can be easily extended for up to a year.  As a result, many North Koreans stay with family for the full year and try to earn some money to take home.

Because of the Olympics, Beijing is now apparently rejecting all family visit visa extensions and stepping up patrols for illegal “visitors.”  This means the North Koreans who paid hefty sums to be in China have to go underground if they wish to stay in the PRC.  They will also face additional hardship in recovering “travel costs.”  Additionally, many North Koreans who are married to Chinese face greater chances of being deported.

Interestingly, this policy was not ordered by local organizations but by the Jilin Provincial Communist Party.

Read the full article here:
China Rounds Up Defectors in Preparation for the Olympics
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
7/26/2008

UPDATE 4: Circus gets coverage in Dutch media.  Story here.  You Tube video of the circus performing in Pyongyang here.

UPDATE 3: Video report of the performance in the Netherlands here. (hat tip to NOS)

UPDATE 2: Werner found out the information for Germany:

In Frankfurt / Germany they will perform from 4th to 28th Sept.

For place, time and tickets please look at:
http://www.ticketcenter.de/Sonstiges/The-Great-Flying-Circus-Nordkorea/Tournee-03248.html

UPDATE 1: Thanks to a reader for finding the information and posting in the comments:

It appears they are going to perform in Amsterdam’s Koninklijk Theater Carré from 08/01/2008 to 08/31/2008. Tickets can be ordered at this URL: http://wereldzomerfestival.theatercarre.nl/actiesite.php. 

ORIGINAL POST: According to Yonhap, the Pyongyang Circus Troupe will be touring Germany and the Netherlands for the next three months, showing off their 10 signature stunts.

From the article:

Formed over 50 years ago, the troupe is one of North Korea’s foremost cultural groups, making a visit to South Korea in 2000 on the eve of the first inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang.

“This is the first time the troupe is giving a solo performance in Europe,” the paper said, adding the tour will help improve relations between North Korea and European nations.

I imagine this is the circus that performs on Kawngbok street in Pyongyang.  There is a second “Korean People’s Army Circus” in Moranbong district.

I do not know where they will be performing, or where to get tickets, so if anyone out there can find out, please let me know.

Read the full article here:
N. Korean circus troupe to tour Europe: report
Yonhap
7/26/2008

From Dr. Leonid Petrov in the Asia Times:

Russia cooperation with North Korea
Since the early 2000s, overall relations between Russia and the DPRK have been improving. The DPRK’s importation of refined oil from Russia saw its first increase in 2002-2003 (from $20 million to $96 million) and was caused by the beginning of the US-DPRK nuclear confrontation and the subsequent demise of the international Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization project that was to construct a light water reactor nuclear power plant in North Korea.

During 2004-2005, petroleum trade between Russia and North Korea grew from $105 million to $172.3 million. Until the six-party talks produced their first results, in the list of Russia’s exports to the DPRK, oil products dominated at 63%. Rampant corruption in both countries also let a trickle of Russian oil to be smuggled to North Korea unaccounted for.

In 2006, Russia was the DPRK’s third-largest trading partner after China and South Korea and absorbed 9% of the total $3.18 billion spent by the North on imports (approximately $286 million). The Kremlin’s approval of international sanctions against the former communist ally was accompanied by the curtailment of trade with the North. At the time of North Korea’s nuclear test in October 2006, Russia’s trade statistics showed that exports of petroleum had dropped 91.1% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The pragmatic mood in bilateral relations prevails, and these days Russia delivers oil and food to North Korea only in accordance with its obligations associated with progress at the six-party talks. This year, Russia has already delivered 100,000 tonnes of fuel oil to the DPRK in two batches and, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin, a top Russian envoy to the six-party talks, will deliver another 100,000 tonnes by October 2008. In June, the Russian government announced it would provide 2,860 tonnes of flour to the DPRK. According to an official KCNA news agency report, this food aid arrived at the border city of Sinuiju in the DPRK’s northern Pyongan province in early July.

Recently, for the first time in the post-Soviet era, North Korea saw a major Russian investment. In the city of Pyeongseong, the Russian auto plant KamAZ opened its first assembly line, specializing in the production of medium-size trucks named “Taebaeksan-96”. Although less than 50 trucks were assembled in 2007, this cooperation became an important milestone in the development of bilateral relations. While the project doesn’t violate United Nations sanctions on North Korea, it shows Moscow’s drive to expand its influence in the country. Ironically, the more trucks assembled the heavier North Korea’s dependence on imported fuel, engine oils and other petrochemical products.

The importance of the DPRK’s Rajin-Seonbong special economic zone to Russia’s national interests continues to grow. The state-run monopoly OAO Russian Railways is currently upgrading its railway connections with North Korea in Khasan-Tumangang, investing at least 1.75 billion roubles (US$72 million) into this project, and plans to participate in an ambitious plan to rebuild a trans-Korean railway. By connecting Rajin (and the rest of northern Korea) to its Trans-Siberian railroad, Russia hopes to benefit form the transit of South Korean and Japanese cargo which could be sent via its territory to Central Asian and European markets. Pyongyang seems to endorse these plans and other Russian initiatives, but does not commit any financial resources.

Eighty percent of overall bilateral economic trade between Russia and North Korea consists of cooperation, barter and investment-in-kind between the regional areas. The most active Russian regions trading with the DPRK are Eastern Siberia and the Far East. Maritime province (Primorsky Krai) itself exports to North Korea more than $4 million worth of refined oil per year. There are no oil fields in Maritime province and oil has to be borrowed through a chain of federal bureaucratic structures from the oil-rich areas of Eastern Siberia. Instead of money, the local governments agree to receive the labor of North Korean workers.

North Korean laborers in Siberia and the Far East were common under the Soviet system and they are still visibly present. In 2004, the Russian Federal Immigration Service issued 14,000 visas for foreign laborers, of whom North Koreans numbered 3,320 in 2005 and 5,000 in 2006. Since the DPRK has no other way to pay in goods or services, its government started paying for oil imported from Russia by dispatching thousands of laborers at zero cost. Following strong demand from local companies, just in 2006 regional authorities of Primorsky Krai agreed to issue an extra 5,000 working visas to North Koreans. This openness is contrary to local government policy that normally restricts the entry of labor from China.

DPRK citizens are sent to Russia to work as woodcutters and builders but some have also managed to find work in the agricultural and marine industry. Through the presence of these laborers, Russia has enjoyed a partial repayment of the DPRK’s post-Soviet debt through North Korean workers being contracted to work in mines and lumber mills in Russia’s Far East.

The wages they are able to make in Russia are far greater than what they would make at home. However, the foreign worker quota is set not by provincial governments but by Moscow, which often tries to put a stop to these programs due to the complexity of the matter. Part of this opposition stems from the fact that the North Korean workers in Russia still fall under DPRK laws and, therefore, are subject to intrusive supervision.

Among the most difficult but negotiable issues in the way of Russia-North Korea cooperation remains the problem of external debt. During the Soviet era, the DPRK incurred a debt of approximately $8 billion, which Pyongyang still owes to Moscow but cannot repay. This debt remains a stumbling block in most negotiations on new aid and development programs. However, this debt can potentially make trilateral Russian-Korean relations closer and stronger.

In January 1991, soon after the opening of diplomatic relations with South Korea, Moscow received $3 billion from Seoul in the form of a three-year loan. The collapse of the Soviet Union left this loan largely unpaid. The new Russian government in the 1990s provided South Korea with armaments worth $150 million to be counted as payment in kind for the remaining debt. In 2003, after bilateral negotiations on this issue were completed, part of this Russian debt was canceled and the remainder was rescheduled to be paid over the next 23 years.

Taking into account its own debts to the South, Russia could easily write off a significant portion of North Korean debt. To resolve this question, a certain agreement between all three parties is needed. To engage in a mutual and reciprocal round of debt cancelation, Russia might choose to see the North and the South as one country. Such an agreement would have unblocked the road for broader cooperation between Russia and the two Koreas, and simplified Russia’s energy cooperation with China and Japan.

The full article is worth reading here:
Russia is key to North Korea’s plight
Asia Times
Leonid Petrov
7/24/2008

From Daily Business News Mongolia:

At the submission of the Government of Mongolia, the Parliament ratified Mongolia-North Korea Inter-governmental Agreement on exchanging work forces on the 20^th of July, 2007. According to the Agreement, Ministry of Social Welfare and Labor of Mongolia is to negotiate in the near future with Foreign Trade Ministry on realizing the agreement and exchange of work force, especially number and need of work force, the minimum wage /by USD/, labor conditions /normal and abnormal/, social welfare /social insurance/ and therefore those interested in employing North Korean wok force in 2009 should formulate their TORs accurately as well as submit them to the MSWL within 23 July. Currently orders should be submitted on the basis of position vacancy since number of workers is not specified yet.

Read more here.

UPDATE 2: According to the Associated Press:

[A South Korean] NIS official, who asked not be named, citing an internal policy, told The Associated Press that China had no plans to close all bridge links with North Korea “out of concerns of diplomatic friction with North Korea.”

The official also said China would not ask all North Koreans in China to leave, saying that Beijing plans to crackdown on North Koreans who illegally stay in China and Beijing plans to restrict renewing visas for North Koreans. 

UPDATE 1:  According to the Associated Press, China plans to close all the bridges to the DPRK during the Olympics, starting next month.  This will have a devastating impact on trade with Sinuiju, Manpo, Hyesan, Hoeryong, and many other trading hubs along the Chinese border.

ORIGINAL POST: According to an interesting article in Bloomberg (thanks to reader) China is acting to reduce the chances that North Korea issues will interfere with coverage of the Olympic games in Beijing this summer.

According to the article:

China asked some North Korean work units to leave the country or move their business operations during the Olympic Games, according to documentation from the North Korean embassy obtained by Bloomberg News.

Citing security issues, China asked North Koreans, except trade representatives and government-dispatched personnel, to leave by July 31 and not return until the end of September, the Korean-language statement said. The embassy in Beijing gave the order to North Koreans in a July 11 directive, according to a copy of the document obtained by Bloomberg News.

The order took effect from July 13 and those who delay departure would be fined or not allowed to reenter China, according to the document. Workers scheduled for dispatch to China from July 1 should delay their departure until Sept. 25, it said.

and…

It isn’t clear how authoritative the directive is. Five North Korean businessmen contacted by Bloomberg news provided different departure dates, or said they were not affected by the directive. The people refused to be identified in print, citing possible recriminations.

A press attaché at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo who declined to give his name said he wasn’t aware of the directive and that there would be no way to confirm its existence.

Read the articles here:
China asks some North Koreans to leave ahead of Olympics
Bloomberg
Hideko Takayama
7/15/2008

Report: China to shut down all bridges linked to NKorea during Olympics
Associated Press
7/21/2008

China to step up inspections at border with North Korea during Olympics to stop migrants
Associated Press
Kwang-Tae Kim
7/22/2008

Incredible! 

Burger Chain ‘Rebuffed N.Korean Overtures’
Choson Ilbo
7/10/2008
 
Influential North Koreans tried to bring McDonalds into the country, but the fast-food chain declined citing lack of profitability, Radio Free Asia reported Wednesday. RFA quoted Nancy Mazeska at MacDonald’s International Franchise Division as saying the person who contacted the chain probably had “political connections” and a “history of success in North Korea.” But due to the poor infrastructure and distribution network and probable lack of demand, McDonalds decided to take a rain check.

McDonalds at one point thought about letting its franchise in South Korea handle North Korean operations, she said. She did not comment further on who the businessman was and when he contacted the company. According to North Korean press, mass-produced hamburgers were distributed in universities in Pyongyang in September 2000 at the orders of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

Many thoughts are running through my head:

1.  Can you imagine?  The “golden arches” right next to the Arch of Triumph in Pyongyang.  Of course the North Koreans would make sure that their “golden arches” were the largest in the world—3 meters taller than the ones in America.

2. Rumor has it that no two countries with a McDonald’s in them have ever attacked each other…with one recent exception: the bombing of Serbia in the 1990s.  Despite the fact that McDonald’s is frequently targeted by anti-American activists, the opening of a franchise in Pyongyang would in fact be a great symbol of hope.

I remember visiting the first McDonald’s in the Soviet Union just after it opened in Moscow.  I stood in line for hours to eat food that tasted exactly like it did in America (of course I was living in England at the time and their food didn’t taste much better than the Soviets’).  The reason I stood in line for so long is because so many Russians wanted to try it as well, and it was finally considered politically acceptable.  The same would probably be true of Pyongyang residents, and the line out the door would be telling.

3.  The hamburger is not entirely unknown to North Koreans.  All outbound flights on Air Koryo serve a hamburger (or at least it is some kind of meat patty in a much larger bun with a piece of lettuce).  In business class, you get it on a plate.  I don’t think it is that great, but it is made in the DPRK.  Here is a bad photo I took of the alleged burger.

UPDATE: 4. ROK Drop wonders if they would have used US beef! 

According to the Korea Times, the end of official North-South dialogues has put plans on hold to expand housing for workers in the Kaesong Industrial Zone. 

From the article:

Officials at the complex expressed concerns that South Korean companies intending to set up operations there may be unable to do so as a lack of housing will likely see manpower shortages.

According to the Gaesong Industrial District Management Committee, the number of North Korean workers at 72 companies operating in the site totals 30,084 and the figure could reach 40,000 by late this year.

Besides, approximately 80,000 to 100,000 workers would be needed by 2010 when 450 companies are expected to settle in the industrial park.

However infrastructure projections show that less than 60,000 North Korean workers will likely be able to commute to the industrial site.

Currently, North Korean workers head for their workplaces by 88 commuter buses and bicycles and the authorities promised to provide an additional 100 buses until the year’s end.

South and North Korea agreed last December to build dormitories to accommodate 15,000 North Korean workers.

The two sides were to conduct a geological survey early this year and start construction work in the first half of the year following the agreement but the suspended talks have hindered the plan.

After conservative President Lee Myung-bak vowed a tougher line toward the North, the communist North kicked South Korean officials out of its territory in March and cut off official communication channels.

The Seoul government recognizes the lodging problem as urgent. Yet, it admitted it cannot find a solution at the moment since the North is rejecting any talks.

Read the full story here:
Gaeseong Complex Lacks in Lodgings for N. Korean Workers
Korea Times
Kim Sue-young
7/9/2008

According to Yonhap:

Russia will deliver another 100,000 tons of fuel oil to North Korea by October as a reward for the country’s shutdown of its nuclear power facilities, Itar-Tass news agency reported Wednesday, quoting a top Russian envoy to the six-party nuclear talks.

North Korea has been promised energy aid equivalent to a million tons of heavy fuel oil as part of economic and political rewards for declaring all its nuclear programs and disabling its main nuclear plants under a six-party deal on ending the North’s nuclear activities.

“We’ve fulfilled our promises — delivered 100,000 tons of fuel oil in two batches by the middle of the year,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin was quoted as telling journalists in Beijing Wednesday. “We are preparing to fulfil our obligations further and send another 100,000 tons by October,” he said.

Read the full article here:
Russia to send more fuel oil to N.K. by October: report
Yonhap
7/9/2008