North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE: According to Michael Rank:

Two power stations are under construction on the Yalu river between China and North Korea, a Chinese website reports.

They are both small plants with an installed capacity of 40,000 kilowatts and both are situated near the border town of Ji’an 集安 in southwestern Jilin province, near the border with Liaoning.

The dams are set to be finished in 2013. Negotiations concerning construction have been protracted: a preliminary agreement was reached in July 2004, followed by a further agreement in August 2008 and a final accord last January.

The Wangjianglou or Lintu 望江楼（林土）dam will be based on the Chinese side of the river with investment totalling 600 million yuan ($88 million), while the Wenyue or Changchuan 文岳（长川）dam will be based on the North Korean side with investment put at $500 million ($73 million). The report did not say how power, or costs, would be shared between the two countries.

A ceremony marking the beginning of construction was held on March 31, attended by North Korean vice-minister of electricity industry Kim Man-su and Jilin vice-governor Chen Weigen.

The plants will each produce 154 million kilowatt-hours per year. The Wangjianglou dam is 397 metres long and 16 metres high, while Wenyue is 602.7 metres long and 15.5 metres high. They are 36 and 24 km from Ji’an, respectively and are 1.5 and 5.5 km from North Korean railway stations (Rinto린토 and Mun’ak 문악 – these are the Korean names of the dams).

These dams are very small scale compared with the world’s largest dams, which run into thousands of megawatts (440 kW is just 0.44 MW).

ORIGINAL POST: According to the AFP:

China and North Korea will build two hydro-electric dams on the Yalu River that marks their border, Chinese state media reported on Thursday.

The dams will cost a total of 1.1 billion yuan (161 million dollars) and generate a combined 308 million kilowatt hours of electricity when completed, China Central Television reported.

The announcement came amid reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il would soon visit China in a trip that could revive talks on ending Pyongyang’s nuclear drive.

Xinhua news agency said one dam would be built at Wangjianglou in China’s northeastern Jilin province and the other at Changchuan.

Electricity from the dams would help “drive economic growth in Jilin and North Korea,” it added.

It was not immediately clear how the two sides would share the cost of the projects or the electricity.

Construction would begin this year.

North Korea, desperately poor after decades of isolation and Stalinist economic policies, is heavily dependent on China for trade and aid.

South Korea’s government said this week there was a “high level of possibility” that Kim would pay a visit to China, the reclusive regime’s closest ally.

The South’s Yonhap news agency cited diplomatic sources saying he might leave for China as early as Thursday or Friday.

China’s foreign ministry declined to confirm the reports.

After an October visit to Pyongyang by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Kim said his nation would rejoin the six-nation denuclearisation talks which the North stormed out of in April of last year.

The talks group hosts China, the two Koreas, Japan, the United States, and Russia.

Adam Cathcart offers a translation of the Xinhua dispatch:

中朝两国在鸭绿江新合建的两座水电站开工   // China and North Korea to Begin Construction on Two New Shared Hydroelectric Plants

Huanqiu Shibao, April 2, 2010 [translated by Adam Cathcart]

新华网吉林频道3月31日电(记者李双溪)31日， 中国与朝鲜在界河鸭绿江上共同建设的两座水电站开工。这两座电站总投资为11亿元人民币 ，建成后年发电量达3.08亿千瓦时。其中，望江楼(朝鲜称林土)电站计划投资6亿元，发电厂位于中方一侧，电站主要由混凝土重力坝、泄水闸、电站厂房及变电站等部分组成。On Jilin’s newschannel on 31 March, Xinhua’s reporter Li Shuangxi broadcast that China and North Korea would start joint construction on two hydropower plants in the border areas of the Yalu River. Investment on these two power plants will total 1.1 billion yuan, and the year after completion, they are projected to have a power generation capacity of 308 million kilowatts.  Among these plants are the Wangjiang Station (called Lintu by the Koreans), which is slated for 6oo million RMB of investment.   The power plant on the Chinese side will be a concrete gravity dam with a sluice gate and substation components.

[Lots of details follow on dam dimensions, projected electric output…It seems clear that China will bear all of the cost, though.]
2004年7月中朝双方审查通过了两座电站的初步设计，2006年中国有关部门批准了建设方案。2010年1月，双方在朝鲜签署了《中朝建设鸭绿江望江楼和文岳电站第九次会议纪要》，一致同意两电站开工建设。 In July 2004, China and the DPRK jointly reviewed the preliminary design of the two power stations.   In 2006, the Chinese authorities approved the construction plan.  In  January 2010, the two sides signed an agreement in North Korea known as the “Minutes of the Ninth Meeting on Sino-North Korean Construction of Yalu River Dams at Wangjianglou and Wenbing,” in which it was agreed to commence with the construction of the two power stations.

发源于长白山主峰、总长约795公里鸭绿江水能资源丰富，流经过吉林省和辽宁省。 目前在吉林省境内中朝双方已建有云峰、渭源两座水电站。 望江楼、文岳电站将成为双方共同受益的水电站，对开发鸭绿江、拉动吉林省和朝鲜的经济增长将起到积极的促进作用。Originating in the main peak of the Changbai Mountain range, with a total length of 795 km, the Yalu River is a rich resource flowing through Jilin and Liaoning provinces.  Currently, on the borders of Jilin Province, China and the DPRK have already built two jointly benefitted-from hydropower plants called Yunfeng and Weiyuan.  The Wangjianglou and Wenbing power stations will be built for of mutual benefit, developing the Yalu River, driving forward continued economic development between Jilin province and North Korea, playing a positive role.

I am not sure where these dams are going just yet.  The DPRK and China already share 4 dams across the Yalu. Here are satellite images of them (Dam 1, Dam 2, Dam 3, Dam 4).  Unfortunately I do not know the names of most of them, but Dam 2 is now known as the Suphung Dam.  It used to be called the Suiho Dam and it was bombed during the Korean war:

Read the full story here:
China, N.Korea plan Yalu hydropower dams: reports
AFP
4/1/2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

South Korean goods remain popular among well-to-do North Koreans, especially women, Open Radio for North Korea station reported on March 25.

The defector-run radio station said one North Korean official bought South Korean goods including a robot vacuum cleaner, air conditioner, heater, underwear, and cosmetic goods worth US$3,000 in December last year. He was quoted as saying his wife asked him to buy them and was very happy with them, so her circle of friends asked him to buy the same things for them.

South Korean goods are apparently no longer confiscated in customs. The official said customs officers do not mind as long as the goods are for personal use and not for sale. Control by Chinese customs is stricter than in North Korea.

It said South Korean robot vacuum cleaners are thought to be cheaper than Japanese ones, and the batteries last longer. South Korean underwear and cosmetic goods suit North Koreans better than those imported from other countries.

Read the full story here:
Rich N.Korean Women Lead Craze for S.Korean Goods
Choson Ilbo
4/3/2010

According to the Korea IT Times:

The number of science and technology institutions in North Korea is estimated to hover around 300; about 200 institutions have been officially confirmed. Therefore, the North is unable to focus on building the hardware industry, which requires massive capital input and long-term investment, and is left with no choice, but to be keen on nurturing IT talent geared toward software development. As a result, the North has been producing excellent IT human resources in areas like artificial intelligence, needed for controlling man-made satellites and developing arms systems, and programming languages.

The following IT institutions are in charge of fostering the North’s software industry: DPRK Academy of Sciences, Korea Computer Center (KCC), Pyongyang Information Center (PIC) and Silver Star, which is currently under the KCC.

In particular, the creation of the PIC, modeled on the Osaka Information Center (OIC) at Osaka University of economics and law, was funded by Jochongnyeon, the pro-North Korean residents’ league in Japan, and was technologically supported by the UNDP. The Jochongnyeon-financed KCC has been responsible for program development and distribution; research on electronic data processing; and nurturing IT talent.

Thanks to such efforts, nearly 200,000 IT talents were fostered and about 10,000 IT professionals are currently working in the field. Approximately 100 universities such as Kim Il-sung University, Pyongyang University of Computer Technology and Kim Chaek University of Technology (KUT) – and 120 colleges have produced 10,000 IT human resources every year. At the moment, the number of IT companies in the North is a mere 250, while the South has suffered from a surplus of IT talent. Therefore, inter-Korean IT cooperation is of great importance to the two Koreas.

As aforementioned, the North has set its sights on promoting its software industry, which is less capital-intensive compared to the hardware industry. Above all, the North is getting closer to obtaining world-class technologies in areas such as voice, fingerprint recognition, cryptography, animation, computer-aided design (CAD) and virtual reality. However, the North’s lack of efficient software development processes and organized engineering systems remains a large obstacle to executing projects aimed at developing demand technology that the S. Korean industry wants. What is more, as the North lacks experiences in carrying out large-scale projects, doing documentation work in the process of development, and smoothing out technology transfer, much needs to be done to measure up to S. Korean companies’ expectations.

Thus, the North needs to build a system for practical on-the-job IT training that produces IT talent capable of developing demand technology- which S. Korean companies need. In addition, it is urgent for both Koreas to come up with an IT talent certification system that certifies both Koreas’ IT professionals.

Read the full story here:
North Korea Needs to Set Up Practical IT Training and Certification Systems
Korea IT Times
Choi Sung
4/2/2010

According tot he Washington Post:

Squeezed by food shortages and financial sanctions, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il appears to be reaching out to China and Chinese investors in a way that could mark an extraordinary opening in the insular nation’s shuttered economy.

Kim might soon travel to China, according to the office of South Korea’s president and U.S. officials. They cited preparations that appear to be underway in the Chinese border city of Dandong and in Beijing. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Thursday it does not have information on whether Kim will visit China.

…

“The North is now planning to open foreign-owned factories not just in closed-off special economic zones, but in major cities like Nampo and Wonsan,” Lim said. Until now, the government has confined nearly all foreign business operations to sealed-off economic zones, such as Kaesong near the South Korean border. “The military is closely cooperating with the State Development Bank to try to increase foreign investment.”

Although the repressive power of the army and security forces remains strong, the North’s command-style economy is a ruin. There were unconfirmed reports of starvation deaths in some areas this winter.

Kim, 68, and showing the effects of a 2008 stroke, is in the early stages of handing power over to his untested 27-year-old son, Kim Jong Eun. But the legitimacy of the succession — and of the state itself — is being weakened by the growth of the markets and increased public access to foreign media.Refugee surveys show that many North Koreans blame Kim’s government for food shortages, corruption and incompetence.

…

In South Korea and China, there is widespread skepticism about North Korea’s willingness to create modern banking systems and enforce laws that allow foreign companies to operate under standardized accounting rules.

Companies that have invested in North Korean mineral ventures have complained for years of corruption and outright theft by the government.

Read the full story here:
Overtures to China may signal opening of North Korea’s economy
Washington Post
Blaine Harden
4/2/2010

Aidan Foster-Carter writes in the Financial Times about some poor decision-making coming out of Pyongyang:

Great Leader? Pyongyang’s fawning hagiography not only grates, but is singularly unearned. Even by its own dim lights, North Korea’s decision-making is going from bad to worse.

Last year saw two spectacular own goals. Missile and nuclear tests were a weird way to greet a new US president ready to reach out to old foes. The predictable outcome was condemnation by the United Nations Security Council, plus sanctions on arms exports that are biting.

Domestic policy is just as disastrous. December’s currency “reform” beggars belief. Did Kim Jong-il really fail to grasp that redenomination would not cure inflation, but worsen it? Or that brazenly stealing people’s savings – beyond a paltry minimum, citizens only got 10 per cent of their money back – would finally goad his long-suffering subjects into rioting? Forced to retreat, officials even apologised. One scapegoat was sacked – and possibly shot.

By his own admission, Mr Kim does not do economics. In a speech in 1996, when famine was starting to bite, the Dear Leader whined defensively that his late father, Kim Il-sung, had told him “not to get involved in economic work, but just concentrate on the military and the party”.

That awful advice explains much. Incredibly, North Korea was once richer than the South. In today’s world, this is the contest that counts. “It’s the economy, stupid” is no mere slogan, but a law of social science.

Having taken an early lead, Kim senior threw it all away. He built the world’s fourth largest army, crippling an economy that he refused to reform, viewing liberalisation as betrayal. His own personality cult was and is a literally monumental weight of unproductive spending.

Used to milking Moscow and Beijing, in the 1970s North Korea borrowed from western banks – and promptly defaulted. That was not smart; it has had to pay cash up front ever since.

Pyongyang also resorts to less orthodox financing. In 1976 the Nordic nations expelled a dozen North Korean diplomats for trafficking cigarettes and booze. In December a Swedish court jailed two for smuggling cigarettes. More than 100 busts worldwide over 30 years, of everything from ivory and heroin to “supernotes” (fake $100 bills), leave scant doubt that this is policy.

Yet morality aside, it is stupid policy. Pariahs stay poor. North Korea could earn far more by going straight. The Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), where South Korean businesses employ Northern workers to make a range of goods, shows that co-operation can work. Yet Pyongyang keeps harassing it, imposing arbitrary border restrictions and demanding absurd wage hikes.

Now it threatens to seize $370m (€275m, £247m) of South Korean assets at Mount Kumgang, a tourist zone idle since a southern tourist was shot dead in 2008 and the north refused a proper investigation. Even before that, Pyongyang’s greed in extorting inflated fees from Hyundai ensured that no other chaebol has ventured north. Contrast how China has gained from Taiwanese investment.

In this catalogue of crassness, the nadir came in 1991 when the dying Soviet Union abruptly pulled the plug on its clients. All suffered, but most adapted. Cuba went for tourism; Vietnam tried cautious reform; Mongolia sold minerals. Only North Korea, bizarrely, did nothing – except watch its old system crumble. Gross domestic product plunged by half, and hunger killed up to a million. Now famine again stalks the land. The state cannot provide, yet still it seeks to suppress markets.

All this is as puzzling as it is terrible. China and Vietnam show how Asian communist states can morph towards capitalism and thrive. Kim Jong-il may fear the fate of the Soviet Union if he follows suit. True, his regime has survived – even if many of its people have not. Yet the path he is on is patently a dead end. Mr Kim’s own ill-health, and a belated bid to install his unknown third son as dauphin, only heighten uncertainty. Militant mendicancy over the nuclear issue – demanding to be paid for every tiny step towards a distant disarmament, then backsliding and trying the same trick again – will no longer wash. North Korea has run out of road; the game is finally up.

What now? A soft landing, with Mr Kim embracing peace abroad and reform at home, remains the best outcome. But if he obdurately resists change, we need a plan B. The US and South Korea have contingency plans for the north’s collapse. So does China, separately. Tacit co-ordination is urgent, lest future chaos be compounded by a clash of rival powers – as in the 1890s. Koreans have a rueful proverb: when whales fight, the shrimp’s back is broken.

But Beijing will not let it come to that. China is quietly moving into North Korea, buying up mines and ports. Some in Seoul cry colonialism, but it was they who created this vacuum by short-sightedly ditching the past decade’s “sunshine” policy of patient outreach. President Lee Myung-bak may have gained the Group of 20 chairmanship, but he has lost North Korea.

Nor will Mr Kim nuzzle docile under China’s wing, though his son might. As ever, North Korea will take others’ money and do its own thing. In early 2010 new fake “super-yuan” of high quality, very hard to detect, started appearing in China. They wouldn’t, would they?

Read the full article here:
Hermit economics hobbles Pyongyang
Financial Times
Aidan Foster-Carter
3/30/2010 

According to Voice of America:

Peking University Professor Zhu Feng, one of the forum participants, issued a frank warning to the North not to expect any large handouts from China.

“Bailing out North Korea’s economy [is] easy.  We have the capability.  We have no intention,” said Zhu.

Three decades after opening its economy and encouraging market activity, Beijing is one of the three largest economies in the world.  In November, Pyongyang enacted what economists say is the mirror opposite of the Chinese reforms; clamping down on markets, and extinguishing the savings of small traders with a surprise currency revaluation.

Reports from North Korea indicate the measures strangled economic activity and sparked hyperinflation in prices for basic foods.

Zhu says Pyongyang needs to adjust its course, and unless it does, China will not help.

“Offering North Korea sizable aid, and keeping it [afloat], without any change to their very bizarre policy, is detrimental to the China national interest,” said Zhu.

Soon after North Korea invaded the South in 1950, China sent hundreds of thousands of troops to aid the North.  In the past, the two countries have said their relationship was as close as “lips and teeth.”  Zhu says times have changed.

“The Korean War is over.  Beijing changed tremendously.  Our relation also altered almost completely,” he said.

Zhu says China will continue to engage with the North on humanitarian issues to prevent mass starvation.  However, he says Beijing’s North Korea policy is not centered on preserving Kim Jong Il’s rule.

“China is now ready for any form of very substantive change in North Korea – including collapse,” he said.

It is not clear if the Chinese government backs Zhu’s comments. But such blunt language from China about North Korea is unusual. Beijing has been Pyongyang’s biggest economic supporter for nearly 20 years, and, regional security experts say, it wants to avoid an economic collapse in North Korea that would send hundreds of thousands of refugees across the border.

Read the full story here:
Chinese Continued Financial Support of N. Korea Questioned
Voice of America
Kurt Achin
3/31/2010

According to the Associated Press:

Russia’s president has signed an order formally implementing U.N. Security Council-approved sanctions against North Korea.
The sanctions were passed in June by the Security Council, which includes Russia, after the country conducted a nuclear test. The sanctions are aimed at pushing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.

To conform with the sanctions, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday ordered that all sales or imports of North Korean weapons and materials connected to them are forbidden.

It also bans weapons exports to the reclusive Communist country and bars transport of North Korean weapons through Russian territory, including its waters and airspace.

And according to Reuters:

Japan will extend sanctions against North Korea first imposed after the reclusive country tested a nuclear device and ballistic missiles in 2006, a senior official said on Tuesday.

The sanctions, previously set to expire on April 13, ban imports from North Korea and prohibit North Korean ships from calling at Japanese ports.

“Basically, I don’t see any reason for not extending (the sanctions),” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano told a news conference.

Asked whether the government would consider shortening the duration of the sanctions to six months from one year, Hirano said it would assess the outlook for multilateral talks that seek to persuade North Korea to roll back its nuclear program.

Japan has called for Pyongyang to return to the disarmament-for-aid talks hosted by China, in addition to pressing the country to reveal the fate of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s.

Japan also banned exports to the country last year although the impact was seen as being small given limited trade flows.

Read the full stories here:
Russia implements North Korea sanctions
Associated Press
3/30/2010

Japan to extend sanctions against North Korea
Reuters
Chisa Fujioka
3/31/2010

According to Yonhap:

South Korea has significantly reduced import quotas for eight North Korean agricultural goods, government officials said Sunday, amid the enforcement of strong U.N. economic sanctions on the communist nation.

According to a public notice posted by the Unification Ministry, the amounts of six North Korean goods allowed to be shipped to the country, including crab, shrimp and peanut products, have been reduced to half from those of last year while the import quota for sesame seed has been reduced from 300 tons to 100 tons.

An official at the ministry, Seoul’s key office on North Korean affairs, said the move had little to do with the U.N. sanctions that were imposed shortly after the North’s second nuclear detonation test last year.

“The items, whose import quotas have been reduced this year, are the ones we had little imports of in the past five years,” the official said, asking not to be identified. “The change was only to reflect the actual amount of imports.”

The import quota for mung beans doubled from 1,000 tons last year to 2,000 tons while that of soybeans also increased from 2,000 tons to 3,000 tons, according to the official.

The government places import quotas on certain items to protect domestic markets and producers, he noted.

This comes as South Korea ends imports of North Korean sand.

According to the Financial Times:

South Korea is to phase out its main import from North Korea, delivering a heavy blow to an impoverished regime already reeling economically from confiscated arms shipments and bungled currency reforms.

Sand was the biggest export to South Korea from the north in 2008, earning Pyongyang $73m (£47m). That represents about twice as much as it gains annually from wages at factories in Kaesong, a cross-border industrial zone for South Korean companies.

South Korean officials told the Financial Times that Seoul would phase out sand exports when existing contracts with its northern neighbour expired.

“Once those companies receive their sand, for which they have already paid, that will be the end,” a senior South Korean security official said.

It could have a profound political impact – but South Korean officials insist the decision was taken because Seoul increasingly dredges its own sand domestically.

Officials admit that South Korea has long worried that money paid for sand goes to the military, but they say increased dredging and the imminent conclusion of numerous outstanding contracts have given it the opportunity to end the trade.

…

North Korea is trying to compensate for South Korea’s decision by seeking alternative sand markets in Russian construction projects.

Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency reported late last year that North Korea would ship sand to Vladivostock for use in building projects for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in 2012.

Sand shipments to South Korea started in 2002 amid inter-Korean rapprochement – but were suspended last March while North Korea prepared to fire a long-range missile over Japan.

Pressed by construction companies that have been affected by the import ban, Seoul resumed imports from North Korea in November. The current flow, however, is less than one-fifth of previous levels.

In an effort to salvage the trade with South Korea, Pyongyang has offered to provide sand to South Korean companies in exchange for other building materials and fuel.

But the South Korean unification ministry said domestic companies were not interested and had not applied for export licences to conduct such swaps.

Previous posts on North Korean sand can be found here. 

Read the full story here:
North Korea hit by Seoul move to end valuable sand imports
Financial Times
Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a
3/19/2010

According to the Associated Press (via Los Angeles Times):

The North Korean’s note, scrawled in pen, was simple: “I want to go to South Korea. Why? To find freedom. Freedom of religion, freedom of life.”

The ex-logger, on the run from North Korean authorities, handed the note over to a South Korean missionary in the Russian city of Vladivostok last week in hopes it would lead to political asylum.

Just before he was to meet Thursday with the International Organization for Migrants, a team of men grabbed him, slapped handcuffs on him and drove off, rights activists in Moscow said Friday. He was spirited away to the eastern port city of Nakhokda, where he is sure to be handed back over to North Korean officials and repatriated to his communist homeland, activists said in Seoul.

Police in Vladivostok refused to comment. A senior South Korean diplomat in Vladivostok said he had no information. Officials from the U.S. consulate in Vladivostok could not be reached for comment.

The 51-year-old would be the third North Korean logger in Russia in a week to make a bid for asylum. On March 9, two other North Koreans who had fled their jobs as loggers managed to get into the South Korean consulate in Vladivostok.

Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported last week that two North Koreans climbed a fence, ran past the guards and entered the consulate, saying they wanted political asylum. ITAR-Tass carried a similar report.

The incidents focused attention on the precarious existence of tens of thousands of North Koreans sent by the impoverished regime to work in neighboring Russia.

Russian government figures from 2007 put the number of North Korean laborers at 32,600, most of them working in logging in the remote east.

The Rev. Peter Chung, a Seoul-based activist, said there are about 40,000 North Korean loggers in Russia, but that some 10,000 of them have fled their work sites. Some are finding work as day laborers while others are in hiding as they try to map out how to win asylum in foreign diplomatic missions.

The North Korean described the conditions as unbearable. His government took half his meager wages, while the North Korean company operating the logging camp took 35 percent. He kept just 15 percent — about $60 a month — an arrangement that rendered him “virtually a slave,” he told activists.

He eventually fled the logging camp, taking odd jobs to survive. He also became a Christian, Chung and Kim Hi-tae said, which could draw severe punishment, even execution, back home.

The successful asylum bid of two other former North Korean loggers inspired Kim to make a similar attempt, Chung said.

Previous posts on the North Korean loggers in Russia can be found here. More here. And here. And here.

Read the full story below:
3rd North Korean logger attempts to defect in Russia, propelled by dream of ‘freedom of life’
Associated Press (via Los Angeles Times)
Kim Kwang Tae
3/19/2010