North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 1 (2015-9-30): Aram Pan (DPRK 360) has posted a comprehensive video of the trade fair for those of us unable to make it.

ORIGINAL POST (2015-9-28): According to Yonhap:

A Chinese envoy has urged more Chinese companies to make inroads into the North Korean market, while calling for deepening economic and trade ties with North Korea.

Li Jinjun, China’s ambassador to North Korea, made the remarks on Thursday as he visited an annual trade fair in Pyongyang, in which about 110 Chinese firms took part, according to the Chinese Embassy in the North on Monday.

Li urged the Chinese companies to “better understand and enter into the North Korean market.”

The Chinese ambassador also “encouraged them to develop friendly relations between China and North Korea and deepen bilateral economic and trade cooperation.”

Political relations between North Korea and China remain strained over the North’s defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles, but China is the North’s economic lifeline.

About 300 companies from 10 nations, including China, Germany, Singapore and Vietnam, joined the 11th Pyongyang Autumn International Trade Fair, which was held last week, according to the Chinese Embassy.

Read the full story here:
Chinese ambassador calls for deepening economic ties with N. Korea
Yonhap
2015-9-28

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

This certainly has been the season of contradictory information on North Korea’s food supply. The North Korean government is celebrating and claiming success of their agricultural reforms, while the FAO reports that things have gotten worse. Let us recap what has happened:

First there was the drought. North Korean state media described it as the worst one in 100 years. UN agencies predicted large-scale crop failures and appealed for food aid, warning that large shares of the population would be at great risk if aid did not come. The UN’s emergency response fund (CERF) allocated $6.3 million to counter the impacts of the drought. The rains came, however, and the drought alarms seemed to have been exaggerated.

Next, the North Korean media – assuming you can even talk about it as a single, coordinated entity – went the other direction. In July, the weekly Tongil Sinbo claimed that thanks to agricultural reforms, this year’s harvest had actually increased “despite adverse weather conditions”.

And recently, reports turned the other way again. In early September, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN declared that the cereal production forecast for the main season of 2015 had declined drastically from last year due to a “prolonged dry spell”.

The rain that eventually came in July and August, causing flooding in the northern parts of the country and leading to an estimated loss of one percent of all planted areas. The FAO rice production forecast for 2015 is 12 percent below that of last year. State food rations, the importance of which can be debated, declined drastically, according to the agency.

In the midst of all of this, North Korean propaganda is still claiming success for the reforms. Earlier this month, the state news agency KCNA reported that a “dance party” had been held in South Hwanghae, part of the country’s rice bowl, celebrating improving conditions on the countryside:

The performers presented cheerful dances depicting the happy agricultural workers who work and live in the rural areas now turning into a good place to work and live thanks to the successful embodiment of the socialist rural theses under the leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

The picture gets even more complicated if one assigns meaning to the fact that cereal imports from China were reportedly lower in July this year compared to 2014. Figures from just one month might not indicate a trend, but given that July was a particularly dire month, these figures are still significant. If imports are being decreased because the official line is that agricultural conditions have improved, no matter the reality, that might be bad news for those in the North Korean public that rely on the public distribution system for any significant part of their consumption.

Either the FAO is right and the North Korean government wrong, or the other way around. Harvests this season cannot have been improving and getting worse at the same time. The FAO is probably far more likely than the North Korean government to have made a correct assessment here. Even if North Korean authorities aren’t claiming success of the reforms for propaganda reasons – which they may well be doing – it is hard to see why their statistical and monitoring capabilities would be better than those of the FAO.

So, the North Korean government is claiming that agricultural reforms are leading to better harvests and food conditions, even when they probably aren’t. Why would they do that? There are lots of possible reasons and one can only speculate.

One possible reason is that the agricultural reforms have become a prestige project. North Korean propaganda channels and news outlets have publically claimed that reforms are being implemented and leading to good results, even though some adjustment problems have been admitted. The same pattern, by the way, can be seen with regards to forestry policies – state media has publicized them with a bang and claimed that they just aren’t being implemented well enough by people on the ground when they don’t seem to be working as intended.

This could be an indication that agricultural reforms are indeed, like many have assumed, a major policy project of Kim Jong-un and the top strata.

That could be good news. After all, North Korea is in dire need of changes in agricultural structures, production methods, ownership and responsibility.

But it could also be bad news. When policies are strongly sanctioned and pushed by the top, their flexibility is likely to be inhibited. In other words, if the top leadership says that something should get done, it has to get done regardless of whether it works well or not.

Again, look at the forestry policies. According to reports from inside the country, those tasked with putting the new policies into practice on the ground say that doing what the central government asks isn’t smart or possible. Nevertheless, such orders are hard and risky to question.

At this stage it is only speculation, which is always a risky endeavor when it comes to North Korea. It may well later turn out to be wrong.

But if the state is placing enough prestige in the agricultural reforms to claim that conditions are improving even if they aren’t, that may lead to limited flexibility in how they are implemented and changed in the future. In other words, if the leadership thinks they are important enough to claim success even when things are getting worse, they may not be prone to changing their orders to fix what isn’t working.

According to Xinhua:

A bulk cargo and container shipping route between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been put into operation, focusing on coal import from DPRK and grocery export from China, authorities said on Friday.

The route, linking Longkou port of east China’s Shandong Peninsula to Nampo port of western DPRK was the first scheduled shipping line for bulk cargo and container between the two countries. It is serviced by seven ships, which complete one circuit of the ports every ten days, according to Longkou Port Group.

The route was jointly established by Longkou Port Group, Liaoning Hongxiang Industrial Group and a shipping company in DPRK in a bid to promote international trade under China’s “Belt and Road” initiative.

Located at the Bohai Sea coast and built in 1914, Longkou port handled 75.07 million tonnes of cargo and 550,000 TEU of containers last year.

“The opening of the route can help improve the service function of the port and is of great significance for the port’s transformation and upgrading,” said Zhang Haijun, general manager of Longkou Port Group.

Read the full story here:
Bulk cargo and container shipping route links China, DPRK
Xinhua
2015-9-25

According to Reuters:

China has launched a bulk cargo and container shipping route connecting it to North Korea that will focus on importing coal and exporting groceries, state news agency Xinhua said on Friday, citing a Chinese port authority.

The route will connect China’s Longkou port in eastern China’s Shandong province with the North Korean port of Nampo, and will be serviced by seven ships, it said.

Though China’s coal imports have slumped 32 percent in the first eight months of the year, deliveries from North Korea have surged 33 percent to 13.4 million tonnes, making it China’s third biggest foreign supplier.

“This big rise is probably down to North Korea’s industrialisation, which should have spurred an increase in production,” said Yao Yao, a coal analyst with China’s Guangfa Securities.

The new route was established by the Longkou Port Group, Liaoning Hongxiang Industrial Group and a North Korean shipping company, Xinhua reported. It said the Longkou Port handled 75.07 million tonnes of cargo and 550,000 TEU of containers in 2014.

Here is the original story in Xinhua:

A bulk cargo and container shipping route between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been put into operation, focusing on coal import from DPRK and grocery export from China, authorities said on Friday.

The route, linking Longkou port of east China’s Shandong Peninsula to Nampo port of western DPRK was the first scheduled shipping line for bulk cargo and container between the two countries. It is serviced by seven ships, which complete one circuit of the ports every ten days, according to Longkou Port Group.

The route was jointly established by Longkou Port Group, Liaoning Hongxiang Industrial Group and a shipping company in DPRK in a bid to promote international trade under China’s “Belt and Road” initiative.

Located at the Bohai Sea coast and built in 1914, Longkou port handled 75.07 million tonnes of cargo and 550,000 TEU of containers last year.

“The opening of the route can help improve the service function of the port and is of great significance for the port’s transformation and upgrading,” said Zhang Haijun, general manager of Longkou Port Group.

Read the full story here:
China Launches North Korean Shipping Route
Reuters
2015-9-25

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Yonhap reports about a seemingly interesting forum that has taken place in Beijing, sourcing Global Times reporting. The article is an interesting illustration of the divergent ways in which Chinese and North Korean scholars/analysts seem to view North Korea’s economic situation and business environment (my emphasis):

Scholars from North Korea and China recently held a forum where they remain at odds over whether the isolated North could attract foreign investors and protect them, according to state-run Chinese media.

North Korean scholars insisted that their country offer a raft of legal and financial incentives for foreign investors, but Chinese scholars raised doubts over the North’s efforts, as it is under U.N. sanctions over its nuclear and missile programs.

The three-day forum, held in the Chinese border city of Yanji, ended on Sunday, state-run Global Times newspaper reported on Tuesday.

Paik Il-sung, a legal professor at North Korea’s Kim Il-sung University, said that the North’s laws protect the property rights of foreign investors. Even if the rights of foreign investors undermine North Korea’s national interests, an “unavoidable confiscation” of their property would be carried out in accordance to laws, Paik said.

Choe Su-gwang, an economics professor at the North Korean university, said that North Korea allows foreign investors to arbitrate conflicts with the state throughout an arbitration panel.

Besides geopolitical risks, poor infrastructure was cited by Chinese scholars as one of main reasons for deterring foreign investment in North Korea.

Lin Jinshu, a professor from China’s Yanbian University, said China intends to build infrastructure in the North’s Rason special economic zone, but a lack of relevant accords prevents Chinese investors from doing so.

Rason was designated by North Korea as a free trade zone in 1991, but efforts by the North to bring life to the zone have failed amid geopolitical concerns.

A monthly usage fee for the Internet in the Rason economic zone is 7,000 yuan (about US$1,089), but the Internet there is slow as a “turtle’s pace,” Lin told the forum.

Zhang Huizhi, a professor at China’s Jilin University, also raised the question how North Korea could protect property rights of foreign investors in the event of a war.

Aside from the comment about an arbitration panel, it is notable that the emphasis by the North Korean side of the discussion, at least as reported in this piece, lies very heavily on legal text. It’s enough if written laws are good, seems to be the attitude, which is of course not the way most potential investors see things.

Read the full article:

Yonhap News

N. Korean, Chinese scholars at odds over investment in N. Korea

09-23-2015

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Yonhap reports a new agreement between North Korea and China to build a bridge over the Tumen River, connecting Tumen City in China and Namyang in North Korea:

North Korea and China have signed an agreement to build a new bridge over the Tumen River that runs between the two nations, Chinese officials said on Wednesday, in the latest sign that economic ties between Pyongyang and Beijing remain largely unaffected despite the North’s nuclear and missile programs.

The agreement was signed in Pyongyang on Tuesday by North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Pak Myong-guk and the Chinese Ambassador to North Korea, Li Jinjun, the Chinese Embassy said in a statement.

The new bridge will link the North Korean border city of Nanyang and the Chinese border city of Tumen, where bilateral trade with North Korea is bustling.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

During the signing ceremony, Li told Pak that the new bridge “will provide greater convenience for people of the two countries and trade ties” and “will also contribute to improving infrastructure of the China-North Korean border,” according to the statement.

Tumen is, of course, close to the larger city of Yanji (연길) and the two are well connected by highway.

It is perhaps symbolic of China-North Korea relations on the more local level that the announcement comes amidst news of increased signs of North Korean nuclear and rocket activity. Often, economic activity and ties between Chinese and North Korean border regions goes largely unaffected by regional political tension.

Read the full story:

Yonhap News

N. Korea, China sign deal to build new bridge over Tumen River

09/16/2015

Yonhap News

Pictured above (Google Earth): Guomenwan Trade Zone

UPDATE 3 (2016-7-1): NK News translates this article from China News Online:

First goods cleared for trade in China-North Korea border zone

On July 1, the Dandong Sino-North Korea border trade zone reported that the first goods imported from North Korea had cleared customs. The shipment totaled 12 tons with 26 different types of products, including matsutake dried mushrooms, honey, Codnopsis grass and other North Korean specialties. The trade zone’s customs entered trial operation on June 26. There are currently 10 Dandong trading enterprises active in the zone, and the North Korean side is also preparing to become more actively involved. The zone plans to eventually feature 300 North Korean goods for sale. Under zone regulations, residents within 20 kilometers of the China-North Korea border at Dandong will be able to trade commodities with North Koreans living 20 kilometers or less from the border after it enters official operation. Up to 8,000 RMB worth of merchandise is exempt from duties and import taxes per individual per day. According to a representative of the zone’s service center, anyone 18 and older can apply for certification of residence within the zone. In the future, after making their selections, those with this documentation will then submit a list of goods purchased to the service center before making payment; the trader then applies for the tax exemption. All imported North Korean goods will require approval by the China Customs Administration.

UPDATE 2 (2016-1-5): Leo Byrne reports in NK News:

“Only the first line of the zone is opened … (The rest) will open this April, according to an official there,” Lee Chang-ju, a PhD candidate at Fudan University, who studies the Sino-North Korea border area and who spoke with people at the tax free zone told NK News.

Lee added the new zone will be open to North Korean companies, but not individuals. As previously reported there will be no tax on transactions there providing they amount to less than 8000 Yuan ($1227).

Photos of the new zone also indicate that it will be divided into numerous areas, each selling different categories of products.

Zones A and B will sell machinery, industrial equipment and electrical equipment, whereas Zone C will be more geared towards North Korean touristic products, seafood, health care products, as well as traditional DPRK items.

“When I went to there, there was nothing to sell, but they said ‘you can general goods just like cosmetics,’” Lee added.

UPDATE 1 (2015-12-30): According to Euro News:

It is supposed to be a key economic gateway to reclusive North Korea.

But two months after its opening, business activity in a trade zone of the Chinese border city of Dandong is flat.

Shops lie empty and customers are in seriously short supply.

Why? The duty-free zone manager is vague.

“Nothing has been decided yet. The space could be rented out…” the manager told reporters.

Dandong is a stopover for North Korean traders and officials travelling between North Korea and northeast China.

It is also a magnet for foreign reporters seeking information on one of the most isolated countries in the world.

This slow start to the new development there is not altogether a surprise.

Previous attempts to set up free trade zones, part of Chinese efforts to coax North Korea into economic reforms, have mostly foundered due to lack of investor interest and fears over doing business with a country under UN sanctions.

China though continues to improve infrastructure on its side of the border.

The opening of a new bridge however is said to have been delayed over North Korea’s failure to build connecting roads.

North Korea’s isolated and small economy has few links with the outside world apart from China, which has been a key partner for decades.

But ties have been strained by North Korea’s banned nuclear programme, which has triggered the UN sanctions on the North.

As relations between China and North Korea have become strained in recent years, China has grown closer to South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy and the North’s main rival.

ORIGINAL POST (2015-8-25): According to Xinhua:

Authorities in northeast China’s Liaoning Province are preparing to open a border trade zone with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

After an unveiling ceremony, the Guomenwan trade zone in the city of Dandong is expected to open during the China-DPRK Economic, Trade, Cultural and Tourism Expo in October, the provincial government said on Tuesday.

The trade zone, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan (156 million U.S. dollars), has a floor area of 24,000 square meters.

Residents living within 20 km of the border will be able to exchange commodities at the marketplace with people from the DPRK and enjoy a duty-free policy if spending less than 8,000 yuan (1,250 U.S. dollars) per day.

Dandong is the key hub for trade, investment and tourism between China and the DPRK. There are more than 600 border trade enterprises in the city, and trade with the DPRK accounts for 40 percent of the city’s total trade turnover.

I have written about the new trade zone and its location in this 38 North article.

According to the Daily NK:

The number of North Koreans who visited China through legal means has dipped this year.

Data on the number of foreigners who went to China in the first half of this year indicate roughly 89,700 North Koreans crossed into the country, according to figures from China’s National Tourist Office cited by the Voice of America [VOA] on Wednesday.

This a 2.2 percent drop from the 91,800 visitors who were there during the same period last year, indicating the numbers are heading toward a two-year decline, it reported.

The figures from this report are only limited to those who visit through legal means and do not reflect illicit trips or defectors who enter the country.

Roughly 52 percent of North Koreans traveling to China reportedly went looking for jobs at restaurants or factories. The number of job-seekers inched up by 3,300 on-year, according to the VOA.

Men outweighed the number of women from the North, making up roughly 85 percent at 76,500. Only 13,200 were female visitors.

The total number of foreigners who went to China in the first six months of the year was at roughly 12.3 million. The greatest number of travelers came from South Korea at slightly over 2.1 million, while North Korea placed 20th on the list.

Read the full story here:
N. Koreans on visas to China drops
Da
Lee Dong Hyuk
2015-8-20

UPDATE 7 (2016-8-18): I recently received a KOTRA report on the DPRK’s international trade in 2015. You can download the report here. Below are two images that show North Korea’s 2015 trade in relation to previous years and a second of North Korea’s top ten trading partners in 2015:

UPDATE 6 (2016-6-21): N. Korea’s economic reliance on China deepens in 2015. According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s economic reliance on China deepened last year as prolonged international sanctions and frozen economic exchanges with South Korea further jolted its moribund economy, a report showed Tuesday.

Bilateral trade between North Korea and China was estimated at US$5.71 billion in 2015, accounting for 91.3 percent of the North’s total trade, according to Hyundai Research Institute.

The amount jumped from $488 million in 2000, with the ratio more than tripling from 24.8 percent, the Seoul-based think tank said.

“North Korea’s trade is relying more on China in the wake of continued international sanctions and soured inter-Korean relations,” the institute said.

China’s share in North Korea’s exports had skyrocketed from 6.7 percent in 2000 to 92.1 percent in 2015, with the amount rising from $40 million to $2.48 billion.

Imports from China rose from $450 million in 2000 to $2.95 billion in 2015, with the reliance ratio increasing from 31.9 percent to 77.6 percent.

The share of raw materials in North Korea’s export to China rose from 37.9 percent in 2000 to 53.3 percent in 2015, while the share of raw materials in the North’s imports from China tumbled from 28 percent to 1.5 percent during the period.

Sales of mineral resources, such as iron ore and coal, were the biggest source of hard currency for the reclusive state, while Chinese electronics topped the list of imports last year, the institute said.

“North Korea have expanded imports of intermediate goods and sold them as finished goods,” said Lee Yong-hwa, a researcher at Hyundai Research Institute. “North Korea’s income level is believed to have improved as it has expanded imports of Chinese consumer goods and capital goods.”

Pyongyang’s reliance on China is expected to further rise this year as it was slapped with additional U.N. sanctions in early March following its fourth nuclear test and long range missile launch earlier this year.

The U.N. sanctions ban exports of mineral resources, including coal, iron, gold and rare earth metals, from North Korea, if the proceeds are used for its nuclear or arms program.

UPDATE 5 (2016-5-23): According to UPI:

North Korea’s trade with China shrank for the first time in six years, according to a South Korean government think tank.

According to a report from the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, bilateral trade stood at $5.43 billion in 2015, down by 14.7 percent from 2014.

North Korea exports to China were estimated to total $2.95 billion, a decrease of 16.4 percent, and imports, excluding crude oil, were reported at $2.49 billion, a 12.6 percent decrease from 2014, local newspaper Kyunghyang Shinmun reported.

…

But the data from 2015 indicates North Korea was hit hard by a collapse in coal and iron ore prices in the commodities markets, according to the report.

North Korea iron ore initially remained competitive in the Chinese market, staying at a price that was 73 percent of market rates, but became less of a bargain in 2015 when it was priced at 84 percent of market rates, which also dropped precipitously last year.

The report stated China’s economic slowdown and new environmental policies targeting the coal industry played a role in the decline in North Korea coal and other exports, local newspaper Maeil Business reported.

In 2015, commodity prices dropped by more than 20 percent for coal and about 31 percent for iron ore.

Note that these trade data were recorded before new sanctions were implemented in 2016.

Read the full story here:
North Korea trade with China shrinks 15 percent
UPI
2016-5-23

UPDATE 4 (2016-2-1): DPRK – China trade is down. According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s trade with China dipped nearly 15 percent last year apparently due to a chilly bilateral relationship between the two neighboring countries, a report showed Sunday.

The North-China trade volume reached US$4.9 billion in the January-November period, down 14.8 percent from $5.76 billion a year earlier, marking the first double-digit on-year drop since 2000, according to a report by state-run think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI).

Pyongyang’s shipments to its neighbor sank 12.3 percent to $2.28 billion over the cited period, while imports from China plunged 16.8 percent to $2.63 billion.

The trade between the allies has risen an average of 22.4 percent between 2000 and 2014. Only in 2009 and 2014 did it shrink on-year.

The KDI report attributed the sharp decline to sluggish raw material exports, as shipments of anthracite coal and iron ore fell 6.3 percent and 68.5 percent, respectively.

“The chilly relationship between Pyongyang and Beijing and a slowdown in the Chinese economy seemed to affect North Korea’s sluggish trade with China,” said the report. “North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year message, which called for using home-made products and rejecting foreign-made ones, also had some influence on the downbeat trend.”

The alliance between Pyongyang and Beijing had been described as being “forged in blood,” since China fought alongside North Korea in the 1950-53 Korean War. China is the only country that provides crude oil to the reclusive North.

But their political relations have become strained since 2013, partly because of the North’s defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons and a series of purges of pro-Chinese officials in North Korea.

For 2016, the KDI report noted that there is a higher possibility that bilateral trade will contract further following Pyongyang’s nuclear tests on Jan. 6, as the global community including the United Nations is set to impose sanctions against the reclusive regime.

“North Korean trade will be dragged down by international economic sanctions sparked by the North’s latest nuclear test in the first half of this year,” the KDI said. ” North Korea-China trade has shrank to some extent, following sanctions by the U.N.”

Output at the Kaesong Industrial Complex is up in 2015. According to the Yonhap (via Korea Herald):

Production of companies at the inter-Korean industrial complex in North Korea exceeded $500 million last year for the first time since its opening in 2004, the government said Sunday.

According to the Unification Ministry, a total of 124 South Korean factories operating in the complex produced $515.49 million worth of goods in the first 11 months of last year, up more than 20 percent from the previous year and the highest yearly output even excluding the December tally.

The figure for the entire year is estimated to reach $560 million, given that their monthly production averaged around $50 million in the year, it said.

“The Gaeseong Industrial Complex managed to grow stably, recording more than a 20 percent increase in total output despite North Korea’s shelling in August across the border and various other incidents in and out of the country,” a ministry official said.

There were 54,763 North Korean workers and 803 South Korean managers at the factories in the industrial park located in the North’s border city of Gaeseong as of November.

Here is additional information in the JoongAng Ilbo.

Read the full story here:
N Korea’s trade with China contracts in 2015
Yonhap
Kim Boram
2016-1-31

UPDATE 3 (2016-1-12): Arirang News reports that DPRK-China Trade is off 15% in 2015 to $4.9 billion. China’s exports and imports to North Korea fell 17% and 13%. North Korea’s exports of iron ore to China fell 68%, while shipments of anthracite fell 6.3%.

UPDATE 2 (2015-8-17): Marcus Noland weighs in on the H1 2015 KDI report.

UPDATE 1 (2015-8-11): KDI reports that DPRK-China trade continues to fall in 2015. According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s trade with China plunged more than 10 percent in the first five months of 2015 due mainly to a drop in raw material prices, a report showed Tuesday.

North Korea’s outbound shipments to its neighbor sank 10.3 percent on-year to US$954 million in the January-May period, while imports plunged 14.3 percent to $1.09 billion, according to the report by the Korea Development Institute (KDI).

“Bilateral trade was down 12.5 percent compared to the year before with exports of anthracite coal and iron ore affecting overall numbers,” KDI said. “Compared to the year before, when trade fell 4.8 percent, this year’s drop is more pronounced.”

The think tank based its assessment on data provided by the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations and the Korea International Trade Association.

North Korea’s exports of coal to China declined 1.6 percent in dollar terms, with the number for iron ore nosediving 70.3 percent.

Falling exports and a subsequent drop in earnings were probably felt by Pyongyang, which will have to consider other means of generating hard currency.

Compared to 2013, when the North’s exports of coal reached its peak, this year’s numbers represent a 24.6 percent drop.

“The contraction is noteworthy because the North actually diversified the places it shipped coal to in China,” the KDI said.

In regards to iron ore, exports declined, both in terms of volume and prices, with the weakening of China’s steel industry directly impacting trade. Exports stood at 600,000 tons, down from 1.11 million tons, with the value standing at $22.96 million.

The KDI said Pyongyang’s No. 1 import item from its neighbor was filament yarn, followed by cargo trucks and petroleum products. Imports of yarn and petroleum products were down, while shipments of cargo trucks rose.

In bold above I have highlighted what appears to be bad news for North Korean coal exporters. I was surprised to see this because an earlier report by Bloomberg indicated that North Korean coal exports to China had increased by 25% this year (over 2014).  However, it is worth pointing out that the Bloomberg report focuses on the actual quantity of coal crossing the border and KDI  reports on the value of the coal crossing the border. The only way both reports can be true is if the North Koreans are again taking lower prices from the Chinese for their coal compared to their international competitors. Another explanation for the conflicting reports could arise if there was a significant difference between Chinese customs data (Bloomberg) and that used by the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations and the Korea International Trade Association (KDI). I don’t have enough experience with these data sets to know how consistent they are.

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein offers a link to the report here (in Korean only).

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s trade with China tumbles this year: KDI
Yonhap
2015-8-11

ORIGINAL POST (2015-4-26): Yonhap reports that DPRK – China trade has fallen in the first quarter of 2015:

Trade between North Korea and China, its economic lifeline, slipped 13.4 percent on-year in the first three months of this year amid frayed bilateral ties, data showed Sunday.

Bilateral trade volume fell to US$1.1 billion in the January-March period, compared with $1.27 billion for the same period last year, the Beijing unit of South’s Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said, citing Chinese customs data.

China is North Korea’s top economic benefactor, but its political ties with Pyongyang have been strained since the North’s third nuclear test in February 2013.

No crude oil was officially sent to North Korea from China for all of last year.

China’s shipments of crude oil to North Korea were also absent during the first quarter of this year.

South Korean diplomatic sources in Beijing, however, have cautioned against reading too much into the official Chinese trade figures because China has provided crude oil to North Korea in the form of grant aid in the past and such shipments were not recorded on paper.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s trade with China dips 13.4 pct in Q1
Yonhap
2015-4-26

According to NK News:

A Chinese-state affiliated and Singaporean investment group, the latter of which is allegedly directly connected to the DPRK, is calling for large-scale investment in 12 projects spanning nearly every major sector in North Korea, from transport to mining to internet and cable television development.

The ambitious plans, outlined in an August 2 press release from China Railway Investments Group, welcome foreign participation in 12 “world class opportunities” in North Korea.

“The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) through its window company Daegian Pte Limited of Singapore in cooperation with China Railway Investments Group Ltd (CRIG) has established a joint venture investment company in Hong Kong,” the press release says.

The joint venture, called Heuimang Investments Group Limited, will be capable of providing a “direct and exclusive conduit to the highest levels of decision making in the government of the DPRK,” the release continues. “Only the most significant of opportunities will be available through this channel which can only be accessed through Heuimang/Han Wang.”

Here is a PDF of the press release posted to the China Railway Investment Group Web Page.

Here is the full text:

韩旺投资集团有限公司
Heuimang Investments Group Ltd (In Chinese pinyin Han Wang Touzi Jituan Youxian Gongsi)
公告 Announcement:
发布时间：2015-8-2

朝鲜民主人民共和国（朝鲜）致力于大力推进其经济发展，并欢迎外国投资参与该国的世界级的机会, 促进经济发展.
The DPRK is committed to progressing its economic development, and welcomes the participation of foreign companies in investing in world class opportunities in the country.

朝鲜欢迎中国的公司投资参与. 朝鲜通过它在新加坡注册的窗口公司Daegian 私人有限公司, 与中铁多经投资集团有限公司合作在香港建立了融投资平台—招商公司.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) through its window company Daegian Pte Limited of Singapore in cooperation with China Railway Investments Group Ltd (CRIG) has established a joint venture investment company in Hong Kong.

朝鲜政府已正式批准Daegian 与中铁多经投资集团有限公司(CRIG)合作成立旺投资集团有限公司.
The DPRK Government has formally approved the joint venture between Daegian and CRIG and their joint venture company called Heuimang (or Han Wang in Pinyin Chinese) Investments Group Limited.

Daegian和韩旺是朝鲜”走出去“、”引进来“的直接和专属通道，是朝鲜政府最高等决策层的直属机构. 只有最显著的机遇将可通过这一渠道，而且只能通过韩旺办理.
Daegian provides a discrete, direct and exclusive conduit to the highest levels of decision making in the government of the DPRK. Only the most significant of opportunities will be available through this channel which can only be accessed through Heuimang/Han Wang.

朝鲜决定与中方共同搭建经贸等合作更方便更快捷的工作平台，利用香港的优势宣传推广、项目招商、商务服务，支援朝鲜建设。韩旺将在中朝两国间发挥经贸合作的强大和充满活力的桥梁作用.
Heuimang/Han Wang will concentrate on creating a strong and robust platform for economic and trade co-operation between the countries. It will also take advantage of the flexibility afforded to a commercial entity registered in Hong Kong.

各方股东及合作公司将依照国际法和国际惯例运作，在透明的基础上配套韩旺发展.
All parties to this joint venture are committed to supporting Heuimang/Han Wang in operating on a transparent basis within international laws and practices.

其主要目标是优势互补、资源共享、利益均沾、合作共赢、商业运作.
The primary objective is commercial engagement through mutual cooperation for shared benefit.

里程碑:
Milestones:

2015年1月29日: 中铁和Daegian 签订了框架合作协议, 其中确定了互惠和显著利于中国和朝鲜，尤其是基础设施发展的若干项目. 通过韩旺, 中铁致力于引领中国企业组成的联合体参加朝鲜民主人民共和国的经济和基础设施发展.
January 29, 2015: CRIG and Daegian executed a framework cooperation agreement which identified certain projects of mutual and significant benefit to China and the DPRK, particularly infrastructure development. CRIG is committed to lead through Heuimang/Han Wang a consortium of investors from China to participate in the economic and infrastructure development of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

2015年3月20日：中铁和Daegian签署公约设立融投资控股公司，以协调和管理投资朝鲜.
March 20, 2015: CRIG and Daegian signed a convention to establish an investment holdings company to coordinate and manage investment in the DPRK.

2015年4月8日: 朝鲜政府的执行委员会正式批准为创建韩旺作为的中铁和Daegian 之间的合作平台公司.
April 8, 2015: The Executive Committee of the DPRK Government granted formal approval for the creation of Heuimang/Han Wang as the joint venture company between CRIG and Daegian.

这是中国- 朝鲜最高领导人讨论2010年5月的巅峰之作, 于经贸合作，成立一个指导委员会，共同开发和管理提名的项目, 包括特别经济贸易区.
These represent the culmination of China-DPRK economic and trade cooperation discussions dating back to May 2010, when the top leaders of both countries established a steering committee to jointly develop and manage nominated projects,including special economic trade zones.

基本的经济发展计划是底层要求支持能力建设，机构规划和物流相关立法的起草工作。此外，为提高海关程序，通信和赞助农业和其他指定项目在朝鲜.
Fundamental to the programme is the underlying requirement to support capacity building, institutional planning and logistics and the drafting of relevant legislation. Also, to improve customs procedures, communications and sponsor agriculture and other specified projects in the DPRK.

中国和朝鲜都致力于取得进展的合作和友谊通过鼓励基于一个企业的市场经济的互利两国人民.
China and the DPRK are committed to progressing their cooperation and friendship by encouraging an enterprise based market economy for the mutual benefit their two peoples.

韩旺利用中国政府鼓励中国企业“走出去”、以及建立境外经济贸易合作区的各种优惠政策，支持朝鲜建设，开发前述项目。
In supporting the DPRK in the development of the nominated projects (see below), China Railway will be taking advantage of the preferential policies of the Chinese Government’s ‘Go Global’ strategy and its model of ‘co-operation between nations’ to create Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones.

提名项目:
Nominated Projects:

下面的项目已被选定为首批发展:
The following have been selected for initial development:
1. 罗先经济贸易区等经济贸易区
Rason Economic Trade Zone and other Special Economic Trade Zones
2. 罗津港, 运输和物流
Rajin Port, Transport and Logistics
3. 东海岸高铁和互连服务
East Coast High-speed Rail and interconnecting services
4. 发电厂和服务
Power Generation
5. 国家石油和天然气战略计划，包括
National Oil and Gas Strategy, including
a. 现有的两个炼油厂和技术升级翻新
Refurbishment of the two existing refineries and technological upgrade
b. 更多的处理能力，存储和仓储设施建设，以满足当地和出口需求
Construction of more processing capacity and storage and warehousing facilities to meet local and export demand
c. 贸易销售和市场营销
Trade sales and marketing
d. 勘探和开采当地资源
Exploration and exploitation of local reserves
6. 黄金开采和加工;以及建立金银行
Gold mining and processing; and establishment of a gold bank
7. 稀土的开采和加工
Rare earth elements mining and processing
8. 金属和矿物开采和加工，包括:
Metals and minerals mining and processing including:
a. 铁钢 Iron and steel
b. 锌Zinc
c. 钨Tungsten
d. 锡Tin
e. 菱镁矿 Magnesite
f. 石墨 Graphite
g. 煤Coal
9. 电信和有线电视
Telecommunications & cable television
10. 互联网服务, 国家经济信息电子中心及电子支付平台
Internet services, a national information centre and electronic payment platforms
11. 金融服务，包括一个完整的商业全服务银行和保险
Financial Services including a full commercial full services bank and insurance
12. 农业包括菌草种植, 牛羊养殖和捕鱼,
Agriculture including bacteria grass, sheep and cattle breeding and fishing
和等项目，招商引资开发.

附加信息:
Additional Information:
罗先经济贸易区和罗津港: 由罗先经济合作局管理，位于朝鲜北东部，毗邻中国吉林省延边地区. 罗先的主要商业机会是罗津港，该港作为主要的物流和交通枢纽为东北亚的潜力. 中国、俄罗斯、蒙古承认其优点，罗津港可提供最北端的全年温水冷冻自由港. 俄罗斯和蒙古已经从罗津港运送大宗商品，通过铁路连结由俄罗斯建造的港区.
The Rason Economic Trade Zone and Rajin Port: is managed by the Rason Economic Cooperation Bureau, located in the North-East of DPRK, adjacent to the Yanbian area, Jilin province, China. The major commercial opportunity in Rason is the potential that Rajin port offers as a major logistics and transport hub for north-east Asia. China, Russia and Mongolia acknowledge the advantages that the northern most all-year round port can provide. Russia and Mongolia are already shipping bulk commodities from Rajin through a railway link built by Russia.

拟议的铁路连接新丝路网络，将为中国东部、俄罗斯、韩国、日本, 进入中亚欧洲及其他新兴经济体. 一个便捷的陆路货物通道，这将减少旅行时间只需15天，而不是原来45天的海上运输，太有吸引力了, 区域商家不能忽视.
A proposed rail connection to the New Silk Road network will provide Eastern China, Russia, South Korea and Japan access to the emerging economies of Central Asia and Europe beyond. A land route for the transport of goods that will reduce travel time to just 15 days as opposed to 45 days by sea will be too attractive for regional manufacturers to ignore.

罗先的潜力作为一个主要的工业和商业中心，是由计划的石油和天然气管道从西伯利亚到韩国釜山而增强. 坐落在通往发展最快、最具活力的世界经济区域上，它是一个可预见的展示，可以肯定的未来，罗先会成为最重要的区域之一。
Rason’s potential as a major industrial and commercial centre is further enhanced by the planned oil and gas pipeline from Siberia down to Pusan in South Korea. Situated as it is at the gateway to the fastest growing and most dynamic economic region in the world, it is a virtual certainty that Rason will become one of the most important cities in the region.

有许多小到中型中外合资企业已经建立在罗先. 这是肯定的, 由于贸易的增加, 这将很快被更大的企业来加盟。
There are many small to medium sized foreign joint ventures already established in Rason, which will soon be joined by larger enterprises that will inevitably follow as trade increases.

中国企业有数十家与朝鲜公司在进行经济和贸易活动，在建材、食品加工、机械、金融、投资、物流等领域谈判合作。交通运输集团，中国铁建集团，中国招商局集团，亚洲集团等大型企业纷纷表示了在罗先经贸等各领域的兴趣.
Dozens of Chinese enterprises are in negotiations with North Korean companies for economic and trade activities in building materials, food processing, machinery, finance, investment, logistics and other fields. Transportation Group, China Railway Construction Group, China Merchants Group, the Asian Group and other large enterprises have expressed interest in the Rason economic and trade areas.

中国的北大荒集团在朝鲜建立了一个高效的农业科技示范园区500公顷的水稻种植实验.
The Beidahuang Group of China set up a highly efficient agricultural demonstration zone, 500 hectares of rice growing experiments.

该商业机会将只能通过韩旺可用.
The commercial opportunities will only be available through Heuimang.

朝鲜国家石油和天然气战略: 是赖以投资者可以利用朝鲜的优越位置，并推出营销活动成为东北亚地区的重要平台。朝鲜有两个炼油厂，其中只有一个目前正在运作。
DPRK’s National Oil and Gas Strategy: is the platform upon which investors could take advantage of the DPRK’s location and launch a marketing campaign into north-east Asia. The DPRK has two refineries only one of which is currently operational.

在新义州的蓬华炼油厂每年生产的柴油和汽油约150万吨, 这是满足本地区的需求远不够的. 该炼油厂坐落在一个很好的位置，跨过鸭绿江丹东，那里有一个油码头和管道组成的国际网络的支线
The Bungwha [Ponghwa] Refinery in Sinuiju [Note: it is in Phihyon, not Sinuiju] produces about 1.5 million tonnes of diesel and gasoline a year which is well below local demand. It is well situated across the Yalu River from Dandong where there is an oil terminal and a spur line of an international network of pipelines.

韩旺拥有的授权权利，新指定的特殊经济贸易区，位于在鸭绿江河口的新都岛。这里是理想的建立一个油库和新的处理设施之地.
Heuimang holds rights to a newly designated special economic trade zone which is Sindo Island in the Yalu estuary. The site is ideal to create a tank farm and new processing facility.

罗先的胜利炼油厂在东北部，已有20多年经营，现停止，由于缺乏原料和适当保养及维修。它最初被设计为每年生产各种石油化工产品2.0万吨。罗津和罗先潜力将见证燃料和某些石化产品必须满足该地区日益增长的需求.
The Seungri Refinery in Rason in the north-east, has been silent for 20 years for a lack of feedstock and proper maintenance and repairs. It was designed to produce 2.0 million tonnes a year of a variety of petrochemical products. The potential that is Rajin/Rason will see a growing demand for fuel and certain petrochemical products in the region which must be met.

金属和矿物: 矿产开采和加工是朝鲜经济的支柱. 通过韩旺的国家协议的过程中，任期安全是有保证的，因为它的设计满足国际融资需求。有铁矿石，煤，金，菱镁矿，石墨，稀土元素和许多世界级的沉积物。
Metals and Minerals: mining and processing is the backbone of the DPRK economy. There are world class deposits of iron ore, coal, gold, magnesite, graphite, rare earth elements and many more. Through Heuimang’s state agreement process security of tenure is assured as it is designed to satisfy international financing requirements.

详细信息，请联系:
For more information, please contact:

(1) 与中铁投资集团有限公司, 主席, 王先生
Mr. Wang Jing, Chairman of China Railway Investments Group Ltd
电子邮件Email: crighk1@gmail.com

(2) Daegian 私人有限公司, 主席, Rudi Sirr先生
Rudi Sirr, Executive Chairman of Daegian Pte Ltd
电子邮件Email: rudi.sirr@daegian.com

(3) 韩旺投资集团有限公司, 首席执行官, 沈思翠小姐
Jyn Sim Baker, Chief Executive Officer of Heuimang Investments Group Limited
电子邮件Email: jynbaker@crimsonant.com

Here is additional reporting in NK News and by Marcus Noland.