North Korean Economy Watch

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

According to Daily NK, North Korean authorities have ordered workers in China home following the cancelled Moranbong Band concert:

Just five days after North Korea canceled Moranbong Band’s Chinese tour and ordered an immediate return of the band back home, the authorities issued an order to all sojourning employees in China, most of whom are employed at trading companies, to report to Pyongyang.

On the 16th, our Daily NK reporter spoke with a source residing in Pyongyang, who informed us that no concrete reason had been given along with the order. And so on the 16th, agricultural workers, forestry workers, traders, and workers affiliated with Mansudae Art Studio boarded a train to return back to North Korea.

This was corroborated by an additional source in the capital.

Our source expressed concern over the drastic measure, wondering if the issue of the Moranbong Band’s canceled tour might be exploding into a bigger issue. “When you call back scores of workers abroad, that’s a pretty big deal,” she pointed out.

One has to wonder whether all workers in China could really have been recalled home, given their substantial numbers. Just to give a sense of the size of this labor force, in 2013 the number of North Korean workers that entered China was around 93,000, according to South Korean statistics. Most likely only a small share was stationed permanently in the country, but even so, recalling each and every one on such short notice sounds like a logistically implausible operation.

Read the full article:
NK orders workers in China back home
Kang Mi Jin
Daily NK
2015-12-18

According to Yonhap:

Containers carrying bottled water produced near North Korea arrived in South Korea on Monday via a North Korean port as part of a three-way logistics project involving the two Koreas and Russia, government officials said.

Ten containers full of bottled water produced at Erdaobaihe in northeastern China arrived at Busan, South Korea’s southeastern port city, earlier in the day after leaving from the North Korean city of Rajin bordering Russia, officials said.

The mineral water was produced at a factory run by Nongshim, South Korea’s largest noodle maker, in Erdaobaihe, a town close to Mount Baekdu in North Korea, the highest peak on the Korean Peninsula.

The shipment is part of the two Koreas’ third pilot operation of the project, which calls for shipping some 120,000 tons of Russian coal to three South Korean ports from the North Korean port city of Rajin.

The coal, which was transported from Russia’s border city of Khasan on a re-connected railway, arrived in South Korea in late November.

The so-called Rajin-Khasan logistics project is a symbol of three-way cooperation and an exception to Seoul’s punitive sanctions against Pyongyang following the North’s deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in 2010.

In November 2014, the first shipment carrying 40,500 tons of Russian coal arrived in South Korea without incident in the first test run of the project. The second test was conducted in April.

The project is also part of President Park Geun-hye’s vision for a united Eurasia, known as the Eurasia Initiative, which calls for linking energy and logistics infrastructure across Asia and Europe.

Read the full story here:
Containers carrying bottled water arrive in S. Korea via N. Korean port
Yonhap
2015-12-7

According to UPI:

North Korea drastically reduced grain imports from China in 2015, and a South Korean analyst said the decrease is a sign North Korea’s food situation could be improving.

Kwon Tae-jin, director of East Asia research at GS&J Institute in South Korea, said grain imports were down 71 percent between January and October 2015, Voice of America reported.

South Korean newspaper Segye Ilbo reported Kwon used data from China’s customs authorities – which indicated imports of Chinese corn, rice, flour and soybeans had fallen to 42,000 tons, down from 144,000 tons in 2014.

Soybeans, or legumes, were the only category of grain imports that did not register a decrease, tripling in volume to 5,640 tons in 2015. Wheat flour imports dropped 80 percent, but it was unclear why some imports were more in demand than others.

The value of total grain imports was down 72 percent from the prior year, to $2.04 million, according to Kwon.

Imports of fertilizer used to grow crops also were down 41 percent between January and October, a trend that shadowed overall China-North Korea trade and investment activities, which have declined for two consecutive years, VOA reported.

China is North Korea’s No. 1 trading partner, but Pyongyang has been working to move away from economic dependency.

Kwon said that inside North Korea grain prices are very stable, and the food supply situation is not bad, judging by the numbers.

“This year [North Korea] did not need to import much grain, or receive a lot of support from the international community, in order to stabilize food prices,” Kwon said.

The South Korean analyst said the stable prices could be a sign the North Korean market has confidence in the regime in Pyongyang. The drop in demand for imported grain also indicates the supply situation is quite stable in North Korea.

Kwon said that North Korea’s dry spell in 2015 could have had a negative impact on the country’s harvest, but overall the situation is “probably not as dire as many fear.”

The researcher said the market also prices in future uncertainty into grain value, and stable prices indicate buyers are less concerned about future scarcity.

Here is similar coverage in NK News.

Read the full story here:
North Korea imports of Chinese grain decline 70 percent
Elizabeth Shim
UPI
2015-12-1

No sooner do I publish an article on the Sinuiju International Economic Zone (read it here at 38 North) than the DPRK releases more information on it.

In the December issue of Foreign Trade (2015 No.4), the DPRK includes information on the zone, including this map:

UPDATE: Dr. Haggard uploaded a nicer version of the image which you can see here.

The map indicates that the downtown area of Sinuiju and the western coast down to the new Amnok River Bridge will constitute the first phase of development. Space has been allocated for trade, industry, sewage, warehousing, and other designated areas. The map also indicates a new road is to be built linking the Wihwado Economic Zone (to the north east of the Sinuiju SEZ) with the new Yalu River Bridge (which has yet to be opened for business) and Ryongchon County.

Here is a satellite image of the specific areas being designated for the first phase of the zone with proposed roads added for visual effect:

This is what the article had to say about the zone:

Sinuiju International Economic Zone

Located in a border area, the zone has a bright prospect for the development of water and marine transport. Its development area is 40km^2.

The Zone is a flat area composed of deposits of organic fine sand in the mouth of the Amnok. The average height of ground inside the bank is 45m, geomorphology is 0-.7% and the average height above the sea level is up to 100m.

Its annual average duration of sunshine 2,427 hours, annual percentage of sunshine is 58% and annual average precipitation is 1001.5 mm.

The first and second annual main winds are northeast and and north winds respectively. It has the northeast and north winds in winter and southwest wind in summer in the main.

The Sinuiju International Economic Zone will provide opportunity for bonded processing, bonded transportation, trade and financial business, tourism, hi-tech industry, and various other business activities.

To this end, it is planned to develop the zone into a comprehensive economic zone with a large-sized latest IT industry area, competitive production area, exports processing area, cargo area, trade and financial area, public service area, tourist area and a bonded port, and into an international city with an airport and trade port.

Encompassing the whole of Sinuiju and two ri surrounding it, the zone is already furnished with infrastructure. However, it is necessary to upgrade the existing infrastructure and expand its capacity and build in its suburbs on a preferential basis.

The items of the construction of infrastructure include port, airport, railways, roads, power station, heating, and gas-supply system, telecommunications (international, domestic, mobile and computer network), and water supply, sewage-treating and garbage disposing systems.

As the zone has rich and good workforce whose education level is higher than secondary education, and many competitive heavy- and light-industry factories and enterprises around it, the investment by foreign business will be cost-effective and conducive to its development.

Previous posts on the Sinuiju International Economic Zone can be found here. Previous posts on the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region can be found here.

The North Koreans have also set up the Sinuiju-River Amnok Tourist Zone which you can read about here.

The JoongAng Ilbo has additional information here.

Stephan Haggard posted some charts of DPRK-China trade taken from KOTRA:

According to the Siberian Times:

SWAT team ambush illegal cargo at night in open seas off coast of the Democratic People’s Republic.

The high-quality jade from the Republic of Buryatia was being exported to China without export documents. Its value was put at 50 million roubles or $800,000. Customs spokeswoman Tatiana Shichanina said: ‘We had a tip off that the smuggling was planned and decided to arrange ambush.’

The operation was led from customs vessel ‘Petr Matveev’. Officers seized ten sacks of jade. The crew were detained and taken to Vladivostok.

In China, this mineral is considered a ‘sacred rock’ and it can command a higher price than gold. The value of the ornamental rock in China encourages criminal gangs to collect and smuggle it.

Read the full story here:
Customs seize 3 tons of Siberian jade being smuggled by sea to North Korea en route to China
Siberian Times
2015-10-23

Below are charts published by KOTRA of North Korea – China trade.

Here is the source.

UPDATE 3 (2015-10-22): According to Yonhap (via the Korea Herald):

 North Korea and China signed preliminary trade deals worth $1.6 billion at their annual trade fair, a roughly 10 percent gain compared to deals signed at last year’s exhibition, according to a Chinese official on Thursday.

North Korea and China have jointly held the trade fair in October since 2012 in the Chinese border city of Dandong, and this year’s four-day fair ended on Sunday. Last year, the two nations inked trade deals worth $1.36 billion.

Pan Shuang, deputy mayor of Dandong, told the International Business Daily newspaper that about 100 North Korean business entities attended the North Korea-China Economic, Trade, Culture and Tourism Expo.

The number of North Korean business entities attending this year was similar to last year, but Pyongyang sent trade officials and diplomats to this year’s exhibition, Pan said.

At this year’s fair, North Korea and China also agreed to launch new tour routes linking the North’s border town of Sinuiju and Dandong, Pan said.

North Korea and China “further solidified their trade bridge through a wide range of exchange and cooperation” during the trade fair, Pan said.

China is North Korea’s economic lifeline and diplomatic backer, although their political ties remain strained over the North’s defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Political relations between North Korea and China showed signs of a thaw after Liu Yunshan, the Chinese Communist Party’s fifth-ranked official, held talks with North Korea’s young leader Kim Jong-un earlier this month in Pyongyang.

UPDATE 2 (2015-10-11): According to Xinhua:

A 400-strong delegation from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will attend the fourth China-DPRK expo scheduled next week, said organizers.

The China-DPRK Economic, Trade, Cultural and Tourism Expo will be held from Oct. 15 to 18 in northeast China’s Dandong City, with more than 100 exhibition booths for DPRK companies.

China and the DPRK will also discuss the launch of new tourism projects to DPRK during the expo, according to organizers.

Firms from Russia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Egypt as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan regions will seek business opportunities at the expo.

Dandong is a key hub for trade, investment and tourism between China and the DPRK. There are more than 600 border trade enterprises in the city, and trade with the DPRK accounts for 40 percent of the city’s total trade turnover.

The Guomenwan trade zone in Dandong is expected to open soon to boost bilateral economic cooperation.

UPDATE 1 (2015-10-2): Yonhap reports on the expo:

North Korea and China will launch a joint trade fair on Oct. 15, with some 400 Chinese companies expected to attend the annual exhibition, according to Chinese media on Friday.

North Korea and China have jointly held the annual trade fair in October since 2012, but the number of North Korean business entities attending the event last year was about 30 percent less than 2013.

About 100 North Korean business entities will take part in the four-day trade fair, which will be held in the Chinese border city of Dandong, according to Chinese media reports.

Besides North Korea and China, companies from Hong Kong, Vietnam, Mongolia and Thailand will join this month’s North Korea-China Economic, Trade, Culture and Tourism Expo.

In the latest sign that Pyongyang and Beijing are trying to increase economic cooperation despite strained political ties, North Korea and China will launch a border trade zone in Dandong on Oct. 15 when the trade fair opens.

The Guomenwan trade zone in Dandong, where more than 70 percent of bilateral trade between the two nations is conducted, would cost a total investment of 1 billion yuan (US$157 million), state-run Xinhua news agency reported in August.

ORIGINAL POST (2015-7-12): Adam Cathcart informs us that the fourth China-DPRK Economic, Trade, Culture and Tourism Expo will be held this year. Info on the first, second, and third expos here.

Here is the website for the event (in Chinese).

According to Cathcart:

The going-forward of the 2015 fair was announced in Dandong at a hotel by the city’s vice-mayor; no North Koreans were listed as attending. Nor were any DPRK officials in attendance[.]

Alastair Gale writes in the Wall Street Journal:

China’s economic slowdown and a plunge in coal prices are depriving North Korea of critical foreign currency, threatening to stir discontent among the small, elite class that the nation’s mercurial dictator relies on for support.

The drain on income comes as North Korea continues to plow its limited resources into its armed forces. On Saturday, the isolated state is set to hold a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of its ruling party. It has also declared plans to launch satellites, seen by the U.S. and others as a way to test ballistic missile technology.

The value of North Korean exports to China, by far Pyongyang’s biggest trade partner, fell 9.8% through August from the year-earlier period, Chinese data show, accelerating from a 2.4% decline last year.

Adding to the pressure on Pyongyang is China’s attempt to scale back its bloated steel industry, the main customer for North Korea’s biggest export product, coal.

The scenario leaves North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong Un, vulnerable. North Korea depends on China to buy most of its exports, but ties between the longtime allies have become strained over North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship. To boost exports, Pyongyang has little option but to turn to its only other significant trade partner, South Korea.

All of this means Mr. Kim has less foreign currency to underwrite the lifestyles of the North Korean elite whose support is essential to maintaining his grip on power.

“Raising living standards for the North Korean apparatchik class is extraordinarily dependent on trade with China in a single commodity,” said Marcus Noland, executive vice president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington research group. “A slowdown in revenues will create discontent.”

The depth of possible repercussions is hard to gauge because of North Korea’s opaque economy and political system. There are no clear outward signs of government instability, and prices of daily necessities such as rice—often an indicator of economic shocks—remain steady, said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

North Korea continues to press ahead with infrastructure projects, such as the recent opening of a new international airport terminal near Pyongyang. The emergence of semiprivate businesses such as taxi companies in recent years has provided the state with fresh sources of income, said Go Myung-hyun, an expert on North Korea at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank.

And China’s ban starting this year on highly polluting types of coal somewhat shields North Korea’s coal exports from a fall in demand because they are mostly high-quality anthracite, a type that produces little smoke.

Still, the fall in trade revenue increases the challenge for Mr. Kim, who has said economic development is a top policy priority despite his reluctance to embrace Chinese-style economic reforms, such as privatizing state businesses. In 2012, Mr. Kim said in a speech that citizens should “not have to tighten their belts again,” and North Korea’s state media frequently tout the construction of apartment buildings and leisure facilities as examples of progress.

Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, says the regime has been trying to reduce its dependence on China, which now absorbs as much as 90% of Pyongyang’s exports, compared with around 50% in the early 2000s, according to the Korean International Trade Association in Seoul. The value of those exports last year was $2.9 billion, Chinese customs data show.

One sign of that concern came in late 2013 when Mr. Kim executed his own uncle, Jang Song Thaek, an official who was widely seen as a proponent of closer trade links with Beijing. State media blamed Mr. Jang for “selling off precious resources of the country at cheap prices.”

Pyongyang’s diplomats have traveled extensively around the world over the past year, including a rare foreign ministry visit to India in April. Still, many nations remain wary of boosting trade links as North Korea continues a nuclear standoff with the U.S. and other nations.

Last year, North Korea and Russia signed an ambitious economic development agreement, but while Pyongyang and Moscow have warmed politically—reflecting shared hostility toward the U.S.—few economists see much potential for significant growth in bilateral trade; North Korea’s exports to Russia totaling just $10 million in 2014.

U.S. and South Korean diplomats say that greater international scrutiny has crimped another North Korean revenue stream: illicit arms and drugs.

Many economists say South Korea is the North’s only near-term option to offset declining trade income from China and may have motivated Pyongyang in August to reach an accord to end a confrontation after the two sides exchanged artillery fire.

“South Korea is the one potentially interested partner that could provide a significant boost to North Korea’s economy,” said Troy Stangarone, senior director for congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington.

The South imposed economic sanctions on the North in 2010, blocking most bilateral trade, in response to the sinking of a warship that killed 46 sailors. Trade has since edged up and Seoul says it is willing to discuss increasing economic cooperation if progress is made in other areas, such as reuniting families separated by the Korean War.

Lee Jong-kyu, a research fellow at the Korea Development Institute in Sejong, South Korea, said the North may also seek new revenue by ramping up its exports of manual laborers to places such as Russia and the Middle East, try to boost tourism or build up light industry. North Korea also has tried to reboot plans for foreign investment in special economic zones—with little success, say foreign officials.

Ultimately, while Chinese diplomats express frustration with the regime in North Korea, it is unlikely that Beijing would allow its volatile neighbor to become destabilized by a fall in trade and spark a humanitarian disaster on its doorstep, observers say.

“If Beijing is a generous uncle, this will not prove to be a perilous problem because uncle will send more allowance,” Mr. Eberstadt said.

Read the full story here:
Cash Crunch Hits North Korea’s Elite
Wall Street Journal
Alastair Gale
2015-10-8

Photos from Daily NK

UPDATE 3 (2015-10-26): NK News reports that the bridge was also closed to road traffic in the last week of October for additional repairs.

UPDATE 2 (2015-10-6): Sino-NK Friendship Bridge to open with new regulations. According to the Daily NK:

The Sino-Korea Friendship Bridge has reopened after receiving maintenance for wear and tear that caused a truck accident and an ensuing shutdown of the bridge late last month, Daily NK has learned.

“The transport of cargo was halted because of the truck accident, which was the first to occur in seven decades since the bridge was built, but they’ve resumed transport starting today,” a source in North Pyongan Province told Daily NK on Monday. “They completed three days of work on the bridge, and all cargo trucks are traveling through, but they’ve limited the weight of the truck and cargo to 15 tons to prevent recurrences.”

This news was corroborated via a second source in the same province.

Following a request from the customs office in China’s Dandong, the two sides agreed to abolish the system of allowing cargo to pass according to respective decisions that had created room for passage of overloaded trucks. Instead, authorities will cap the weight of the vehicle and cargo combined at a total of 15 tons.

There are no exceptions at this time, he said; if a vehicle fails to comply with the limit regulations, no access will be permitted.

“Until now, 20 to 30 tons had commonly been the minimum loaded, and often cargo would be much heavier,” the source explained. “Especially more recently, the loads sometimes reached up to 40 to 50 tons due to overloading because of mineral exports that were done in 30-ton containers.”

The bridge is acutely susceptible to damage, he added, noting that North Korea has been overloading trucks with coal, and minerals such as gold, copper, silver, magnetite, molybdenum, and other minerals to earn in foreign currency and secure ‘loyalty funds’ for the leadership since the 1990s.

Mineral exports have reportedly seen a dramatic surge this year, explained by state efforts to reap in capital for Party Foundation Day preparations. However, no attending measures were implemented to control the pervasive practice of overburdening vehicles.

“We (the North) will face a sense of urgency to push out as many minerals as we can to get our hands on more money and import goods, but now with the restrictions on cargo volume now, traders will be swamped,” the source predicted, adding that the number of trucks on the road is also likely to jump significantly.

A flagrant disregard for concern over safety measures is entirely to blame for the accident, he lamented, noting that traders focus all their energies and concerns on raking in ‘loyalty funds’ above all else. While the need for weight regulations was irrefutable, the source surmised that the sudden modification will soon prove to be a double-edged sword.

Going forward, accidents will, presumably, decrease, but disgruntlement from traders faced with bringing in massive loads of supplies into the country leading up to the October 10 celebration is certain to peak, he concluded.

UPDATE 1 (2015-10-1): According to the Daily NK:

The Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge, connecting China’s Dandong and North Korea’s Sinuiju, has been shut down after damage sustained over a protracted period of time caused a truck to flip over. However, with only a number of days left until the Korean Workers’ Party foundation celebration, traffic was temporarily resumed on September 30th, Daily NK has learned.

“Today (September 30th) they resumed traffic just for one day so that North Korean traders can bring in supplies for the event after a truck crashed because of the damage on Monday,” a source from North Pyongan Province told Daily NK.

An additional source in the same province corroborated this news.

Officials have banned entry from October 1 to 4 so that they can restore the bridge, but facing urgent preparation for the Party’s 70th Foundation Day festivities, they put down steel plates as a temporary fix to get truck loads of supplies through, the source explained.

“The accident has thrown customs offices on either side of the border into mad panic,” she added. “Cadres from both customs services surveyed the site of the accident and put things into motion, so construction work is now underway.”

Starting at 8 p.m. on the day of the accident, train services were up and running, but the battered roads with deep crevices were covered with makeshift steel plates by North Korean workers, allowing vehicles that had entered Sinuiju to return to Dandong. Reconstruction work is currently being carried out by Chinese workers, according to the source.

The source speculated that the project would be finalized by October 5, opening up the bridge for a massive trade of goods, leading up to the Party celebration, which falls on the 10th.

ORIGINAL POST (2015-9-29): According to UPI:

A 72-year-old railroad bridge connecting North Korea and China was closed after a crash involving multiple trucks occurred on the North Korea side of the span on Monday.

The Yalu River Bridge, also known as the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge, was blocked after three or four Chinese trucks rolled at a portion of the bridge that had sunk between 13 and 22 feet, South Korean news network YTN reported.

The bridge has a lane for road vehicles and another for a pair of railway tracks. Trains traveling from China into North Korea were temporarily suspended, but service was resumed after the tracks were repaired, an unidentified source told YTN on Monday.

Another source told South Korean outlet CBS No Cut News the heavy trucks headed for Sinuiju overturned, fell and collided into the adjacent railway tracks, and the accident occurred between 10 and 11 a.m. Vehicular traffic was closed for the rest of the day, and more than 100 trucks from China waiting to enter North Korea were halted, the source said.

The number of casualties was not disclosed.

The bridge, completed in 1943, accounts for 70 percent of commercial traffic between China and North Korea, and the railroad runs from Sinuiju to Beijing.

China remains North Korea’s No. 1 trading partner, and North Korea imports more than it exports to Asia’s largest economy. Pyongyang’s trade dependence on China runs as high as 90.1 percent, according to South Korean government statistics [which exclude South Korean trade with the DPRK].

Read the full story here:
Truck accident on sinking North Korea bridge suspends traffic
UPI
2015-9-29