North Korean Economy Watch

Richard Stone writes in 38 North:

The curtain is rising on a bold experiment to engage North Korea’s academic community—and possibly shape the country’s future. On October 25, 2010, Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, or PUST, opened its doors to 160 elite North Korean students. By improving North Korea’s technical prowess, PUST might nudge the country’s tattered manufacturing-based economy toward an information-based economy.

“Our purpose is the globalization of North Korea through PUST. In that way, their economy can gradually develop, which will make it easier for reunification later,” says Park Chan Mo, former president of the National Research Foundation of Korea and one of four founding committee chairs of PUST. More initiatives are in store after South-North relations improve, says Oh Hae Seok, Special Adviser on Information Technology (IT) to South Korea’s President Lee Myung Bak. “The South is ready to assist the North by building an IT infrastructure and supporting IT education, as long as the North opens its door,” he says.

PUST will test North Korea’s appetite for engagement. Perhaps most discomfiting to the North is that the new university is led and bankrolled by devout Christians. The North Korean government espouses atheism and takes a dim view on South Korean evangelists, particularly for their role in an “underground railway” in northeastern China that steers defectors to safe havens. PUST leaders and professors, primarily ethnic Koreans, have promised not to proselytize.

PUST’s main mission therefore is to lead North Korea out of a scientific wilderness. The North is light-years behind industrialized nations in many areas of science and technology. It excels in a few spheres. For instance, North Korea is notorious for its skill at reverse-engineering long-range missiles and fashioning crude but workable plutonium devices. Less well known, the North has developed considerable expertise in information technology—and has staked its future on it. “North Korea has chosen IT as the core tool of its economic recovery,” says Park. But it has a poor grasp on how to translate knowledge into money. “Instead of just giving them fish, we will teach them how to catch fish,” Park says.

There are serious risks in giving North Korea a technical assist, according to PUST’s critics. Opinion in South Korea is split on PUST; many people have voiced concerns. The chief worry is that PUST students could feed information or lend newfound expertise to the North Korean military. To minimize these risks, PUST’s curricula have been vetted by government and academic nonproliferation experts.

To proponents, the new venture’s benefits far outweigh the risks. PUST has been promised academic freedom, the likes of which has been virtually unknown in North Korea, including campus-wide internet access. “We hope that PUST will open channels to the outside,” says Nakju Lett Doh, an assistant professor of electrical engineering at Korea University in Seoul and member of PUST’s academic committee.

Few people of university age or younger can imagine a world without internet. But it’s rare a North Korean of any age has tasted this forbidden fruit. The government takes infinite care to shield innocent minds from corrosive facts about the Korean War, descriptions of life in modern South Korea, and western notions of freedom of expression, among other things. Instead, the Garden of Juche offers Guang Myung, or Bright Light: an Intranet not connected to the outside world.

When I visited Pyongyang on invitation from the DPRK Academy of Sciences in July 2004, my hosts gave me a tour of the Central Information Agency for Science and Technology’s computing center and showed me the Guang Myung home page, which reminded me of Yahoo. They claimed the system has tens of millions of records, including digital tomes on agriculture and construction as well as the complete writings of Kim Il Sung.

Since then, fiber optic cables have spread Guang Myung to the far corners of the nation. “The main purpose is to disseminate scientific and technological information,” says Lee Choon Geun, chief representative of the Korea-China Science & Technology Cooperation Center in Beijing. On a visit to Pyongyang a few years ago, Lee, an expert on North Korea’s scientific community, witnessed Guang Myung in action, including a live lecture broadcast over the Intranet. At the time, he says, Kim Chaek University of Technology had around 500 Pentium 4’s and 5’s connected to the system. He estimates that nationwide, tens of thousands of computers of all types are now linked in. However, it’s not clear how effective Guang Myung is outside Pyongyang, where clunky routers funnel information to ancient machines—remember 386s and 486s? Another major woe is an unstable electricity supply that regularly fritzes electronics. Lee, who has visited North Korea 15 times, says that when he asks what scientists need most, they request laptops, whose power cord adaptors and batteries can better handle electrical fluctuations.

Indeed, it’s a formidable job to erect an IT infrastructure inside a cocoon. South Korea has lent a hand. With the government’s blessing, private organizations in the South have sent approximately 60,000 IT publications—periodicals and books—to North Korean universities, and IT professors from the South have visited the North for lecturing stints, says Oh. South Korean groups have also helped train North Korean computer scientists in Dandong, China, just across the border from North Korea. The training center had to close earlier this year due to budget cuts, says Lee.

The juche philosophy embraces self-reliant efforts to gather technical information from abroad. North Korean diplomats are one set of eyes and ears. They collect journal articles, textbooks and handbooks, surf the Web and ship any seemingly useful information to Pyongyang, where analysts evaluate it and censors clear it for posting. When sent via internet, information is routed primarily through Silibank in Shenyang in northeastern China. North Korea has also deployed abroad around 500 IT specialists in the European Union and dozens more to China—in Beijing, Dalian, Shanghai, and Shenyang—to acquire knowledge for the motherland. “Through them a lot of information goes to North Korea,” says Park.

Such activity may seem like a packrat cramming its nest with equal portions of usable materials and shiny baubles. But it has paid off in at least one area: software development. “They are developing their own algorithms,” says Doh, an expert on control system theory. Even though North Korea’s programmers are almost completely isolated from international peers, they lag only about 5 to 6 years behind the state of the art in South Korea, Doh says. “That’s not that bad.” The Korean Computing Center and Pyongyang Information Center together have around 450 specialists, and universities and academy institutes have another 1,000 more experts on computer science, says Lee. And all told there are about 1,200 specialized programmers.

The programmers have enjoyed modest commercial success. The state-owned SEK Studios in Pyongyang has done computer animation for films and cartoons for clients abroad. And software developers have produced, among other things, an award-winning computer version of the Asian board game Go. “Their software is strong,” says Park, a specialist on computer graphics and simulation. “They are very capable.”

But the resemblance to IT as we know it ends there. “In North Korea, IT is quite different from what most people think,” says Lee. Most computing efforts these days are focused on computerized numerical control, or CNC: the automation of machine tools to enable a small number of workers to produce standardized goods. “Their main focus is increasing domestic production capacity,” says Lee. North Korea’s CNC revolution is occurring two to three decades after South Korean industries adopted similar technologies. And North Korea is struggling to implement CNC largely because of its difficulties in generating sufficient energy needed to make steel—so its machinery production capacity is a fraction of what it used to be—and it lacks the means to produce sophisticated integrated circuit elements.

Antiquated technology may be the biggest handicap for North Korea’s computer jocks. North Korea “doesn’t have the capacity to make high technology,” says Kim Jong Seon, leader of the inter-Korean cooperation team at the Science and Technology Policy Institute in Seoul. North Korea is thought to have a single clean room for making semiconductors at the 111 Factory in Pyongyang. Built in the 1980s—the Stone Age of this fast-paced field—the photomask production facility is capable of etching 3 micron wide lines in silicon chips. South Korean industry works in nanometer scales. The bottom line, says Kim, is that in high technology, “they have to import everything.”

That’s a challenge, because no country—China included—openly flouts UN sanctions on high-tech exports to North Korea. Any advanced computing equipment entering the country is presumably acquired through its illicit missile trade and disappears into the military complex. North Korea’s civilian computer scientists are left fighting for the scraps. One of only five Ph.D. scientist-defectors now known to be in South Korea, computer scientist Kim Heung Kwang, fled North Korea in 2003 not for political reasons or because he was starving—rather, he hungered to use modern computers.

To help North Korea bolster its budding IT infrastructure and not aid its military, PUST will have to walk a tightrope. School officials have voluntarily cleared curricula with the U.S. government, which has weighed in on details as fine as the name of one of PUST’s first three schools. The School of Biotechnology was renamed the School of Agriculture and Life Sciences because U.S. officials were concerned that biotech studies might be equated to bioweapons studies, says Park. North Korean officials, meanwhile, forbid PUST from launching an MBA program—a degree too tightly associated with U.S. imperialism. “So we call it industrial management,” Park says. “But the contents are similar to those of an MBA.”

Besides cleansing PUST of any weapons-grade information, Park and university representatives are working with the U.S. Commerce Department to win export licenses for advanced computing equipment and scientific instruments not prohibited by dual-use restrictions. Approval is necessary for equipment consisting of 10 percent or more of U.S.-made components. “You can attach foreign-made peripheral devices and reduce U.S. components to less than 10 percent, but that’s a kind of cheating,” Park says. “We want to strictly follow the law.”

This improbable initiative in scientific engagement was a long time in the making. PUST’s chief architect is founding president Kim Chin Kyung, who in 1998 established his first venture in higher education: Yanbian University of Science and Technology in Yanji, the capital of the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in northeastern China’s Jilin Province, just across the border from North Korea. A businessman who studied divinity in university, Kim, who goes by his English name James, was accused of being a spy on a visit to North Korea in 1998 and imprisoned there for six weeks. He stuck with YUST, however, and in 2001, North Korean education officials visiting the university stunned Kim by inviting him to establish a similar university in Pyongyang. Kim got a rapturous response when he pitched the idea to YUST’s sponsors.

Progress came in fits and starts. PUST was originally envisioned to open in 2005, but work on the initial 17 buildings of the $35 million, 100-hectare campus in southern Pyongyang’s Rakrang district was completed only last year. North Korean education officials have promised the school academic freedom and internet access. Such startling privileges will be doled out byte by byte. “In the beginning, they are allowing us to do emailing,” says Park. Full internet access is expected to come after PUST earns their keepers’ trust. “To do research, really you have to use the internet. The North Korean government realizes that. Once they know students are not using the internet for something else, it should be allowed,” Park says.

While YUST and PUST may both have ardent-Christian backers and cumbersome acronyms, the atmosphere on the two campuses will be markedly divergent. In Yanji, encounters outside the classroom are common: faculty and students even dine together in a common hall. “YUST professors and students are like one family,” says Park.

In contrast, PUST students and faculty will inhabit two entirely different worlds that only merge in the classroom. The North Korean government handpicked the inaugural class of 100 undergraduates and 60 graduate students, including 40 grads who will study IT. All will study technical English this fall, then in March a wider roster of courses will become available after key professors and equipment arrive on campus. A student leader will shepherd students to and from class to ensure that no lamb goes astray. “There will be no way to teach the gospel,” says Doh.

PUST professors expect to be impressed with the students, selected from Kim Il Sung University and Kim Chaek University of Technology. “These are the most brilliant students in North Korea,” says Doh. PUST plans to ramp up enrolment to 2,000 undergrads and 600 graduate students by 2012. To expose these young, agile minds to a wide range of ideas, PUST plans to fly in a number of visiting professors during the summer terms. They also intend to seek permission for students from other Pyongyang universities to attend the summer sessions. As trust develops, PUST hopes that some of its students will be able to participate in exchange programs and study abroad.

PUST’s success may hinge on the disposition of North Korea’s leader in waiting. Kim Jong Un was tutored privately by a “brilliant” graduate of Université Paris X who chaired the computer science department at Kim Chaek University of Technology before disappearing from public view in the early 1980s, says Kim Heung Kwang, who studied at Kim Chaek before working as a professor at Hamhung Computer College and Hamhung Communist College. After defecting and settling in Seoul, Kim founded North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, a group of university-educated defectors that raises awareness of conditions in North Korea.

According to internal North Korean propaganda, Kim Jong Un oversees a cyberwarfare unit that launched a sophisticated denial-of-service attack on South Korean and U.S. government websites in July 2009. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service blamed the North, which has not commented publicly on the attack. Kim Jong Un’s involvement cannot be confirmed, says Kim Heung Kwang. “But Kim Jong Un is a young person with a background in information technology, so he may desire to transform North Korea from a labor-intense economy to a knowledge economy like South Korea is doing.”

Another big wildcard is North-South relations. After the sinking of the Cheonan, South Korea froze assistance to the North. In the event of a thaw, “the South wants to build a digital complex” in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) or in South Korea similar to the Kaesong industrial complex, says Oh. This, he says, “would be the base camp of North Korea’s IT industry development.” North Korea has reacted lukewarm to the idea: It would prefer that such a venture be based in Pyongyang, says Lee. To facilitate denuclearization and help skilled North Korean workers adapt to market economics, the Science and Technology Policy Institute in Seoul has proposed the establishment of an Inter-Korean Science and Technology Cooperation Center modeled after similar centers established in Kiev and Moscow after the Soviet breakup.

Such projects, if they were to materialize, along with well-trained graduates from PUST, may help pull North Korea’s economy up by its bootstraps. “We are trying to make them more inclined to do business, to make their country wealthier,” says Park. “It will make a big difference once they get a taste of money. That’s the way to open up North Korea.”

Additional information:
1. Here are previous posts about PUST.

2. Here are previous posts about the DPRK’s intranet system, Kwangmyong.

3. Here is a satellite image of PUST.

Read the full story here:
Pyongyang University and NK: Just Do IT!
38 North
Richard Stone
11/1/2010

(via One Free Korea) Global Times reports (in Korean) that the DPRK is leasing two islands (황금평 and 위화도) to China.

Here is a satellite image of the two islands (highlighted):

According to the article:

South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo daily newspaper reported Thursday that North Korea has decided to extend the lease terms of two islands to Chinese companies for the establishment of a free trade zone.

However, analysts say the zone will more likely be developed as a trade area to facilitate business with China.

Both islands are located on the Yalu River, which constitutes the northwestern boundary between North Korea and the northeast region of China.

Hankook Ilbo reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed to establish a free trade zone of 50 square kilometers on the two islands during his visit to China in May, and foreigners won’t need a visa to visit the islands.

The extension of the lease term by 100 years – starting this past May – to Chinese companies is unusual because Pyongyang generally leases land to foreign companies for 50 years, the report said.

By press time, state-run media in North Korea hadn’t confirmed the report.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported earlier this year that in order to attract foreign investment to North Korea, Pyongyang will set up a free trade area, located near the Sino-North Korean border city of Dandong, Liaoning Province, to be developed by a Chi-nese enterprise.

The report quoted an informed source as saying the scale of investment in the two islands will total $800 million.

“I don’t think North Korea will establish a free trade zone in the border areas that soon,” said Lü Chao, director of the Korean Research Center at China’s Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences. “But it is likely that the two islands will be developed into a border trade zone that can help improve the lives of the locals and be conducive to regional stability.”

Lü told the Global Times that developing a free trade zone in North Korea’s border areas with China might take longer.

Separately, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported Monday that Kim Jong-un, the third son of Kim Jong-il, recently said his country needs food more than bullets.

“In the past, it was all right to have bullets and no food, but now we must have food, even though we don’t have bullets,” the newspaper quoted him as saying.

The paper said Kim Jong-un made the remarks during a visit to Kimchaek city in Ham-gyong Province in late September, and the comments are confirmed in documents recently disseminated to party officials.

Kim Jong-un was promoted to a four-star general and vice chairman of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission last month during an important meeting of the party.

The White House said Thursday that North Korea appeared to be in the early stages of a leadership transition, and it would still take some time to discern the final outcome.

“We’re watching the transition closely,” Jeff Bader, US President Barack Obama’s Asia adviser, told reporters.

The idea of building a special economic zone near Sinuiju has been proposed several times but it never seems to take hold.  Given the level of economic growth in Dandong over the last five years, and China’s growing clout in the DPRK, maybe things will be different this time.

Read the full aticle here:
NK leases islands to Beijing: report
Global Times
Wang Zhaokun
10/29/2010

According to China Economic Review:

Could North Korea be saved by Chinese-style reforms? In return for its continued support, China is pushing the rogue state to liberalise its economy, and Chinese firms are making inroads into various sectors, especially infrastructure and mining. Earlier this week, I interviewed Felix Abt, a Swiss business consultant who was appointed managing director of a pharmaceutical joint venture in Pyongyang with a brief to turn around the loss-making company, about his experiences over the last eight years.

How open is North Korea to foreign investment, and how many foreign companies are operating on the ground?

In 1992 the Supreme People’s Assembly adopted three laws allowing and regulating foreign investment — the Foreign Investment Law, the Foreign Enterprise Law, and the Joint Venture Law.

Since then, foreign investors have become active in a variety of industrial and service industries. There are a few hundred foreign-invested companies operating at present, mainly smaller sized ventures ($100,000 to $3 million) and of Asian origin (with China ranking No.1).

There are a few very large foreign investments, mainly in the telecom and cement industries. Western multinationals have been shying away from North Korea for fear of ending up on a sanctions list in the world’s largest economy. BAT sold its highly profitable tobacco factory due to political pressure in Great Britain to a Singaporean company a few years ago.

What sort of person sets up business in North Korea? What sort of industries have arrived and what sectors are not represented?

The domestic market is still very small and limited and and not much growth can be expected in the foreseeable future. So to talk about a promising emerging market at present would be a silly exaggeration.

However, North Korea is a very interesting location for the processing of products from garments to shoes to bags where you send the cloth or the leather and the accessories and they send you the finished products back.

The same goes for the extraction of minerals and metals, abundantly available in North Korea, in which case you would send equipment and get the mining products.

In addition, the manufacturing of low to medium technology items is very competitive and such products are already being made with foreign investment in North Korea from artificial flowers to furniture to artificial teeth. I was involved in making the business plan for the artificial teeth joint venture and know therefore that such products can be manufactured with a much better profit margin than for example in the Philippines where the artificial teeth had been produced before.

A particularly promising industry is IT due to the extraordinary quantity and quality of mathematicians unmatched by other countries. The first and only software JV, Nosotek, has seen remarkable successes within a very short time from its foundation and could become a subject of interest to investors who would never have thought of putting any money in North Korea until now.

How easy is it to do business there? Are most foreigners concentrated in Pyongyang or are they spread around?

It depends on the expectations, on the choice of the local partner and on the expatriate staff a company sends there. You need to thorougly select the most suitable local partner and an expatriate manager that is not only professionally competent but also can adapt to and cope with a demanding business environment.

The success of the pharmaceutical joint venture I was running in the past depended on a fast capacity building of the Korean members of the board of directors, managers and staff. I brought them to China where they visited the first foreign and Chinese invested pharmaceutical JV and I convinced its Chinese octogenarian architect to become a member of our company’s board of directors.

Since he faced very similar problems decades earlier he could convince the North Koreans quite easily why certain things had to be done in a certain way to make the business successful. We visited a great number of pharmaceutical companies, wholesalers, pharmacy chains in China and some of our staff even worked in a Chinese factory for some time.

When I wanted to set up the marketing and sales function I was first told that “companies in the DPRK usually don’t have a sales dept.”. I was asked to send a letter to the cabinet to explain my reasons to get the permit for doing so. The visits in China were surely important eye openers and helped getting things organised like in any other country.

The Korean managers and staff quickly acquired all the necessary skills and were able to run the day to day business (factory, import and wholesale of pharmaceuticals, pharmacies) alone when my term ended as managing director.

Many foreign business people are based in Pyongyang, but there are also many working in different places throughout the country, e.g. near mines in the mountains.

Hu Jintao has urged North Korea to speed up its economic reform, using China as a model. Could North Korea open up in the same way over the next few years?

The Chinese are better informed than the scholar and North Korea expert who recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the country’s elite would never agree to reform its economy as they fear the system would then collapse.

Together with the Chinese, I believe the risk of a collapse is much bigger if no reforms are carried out than if there are slow and controlled changes.

Once the economy starts taking off and people’s living standards rise the people will hardly challenge the system and the leadership even though the North Korean people know that South Korea’s economy is much more advanced.

Read the full story here:
Can North Korea embrace Chinese-style reforms?
China Economic Review
Malcolm Moore
9/23/2010

Aidan Foster-Carter wrties about the recent increase in China-DPRK “friendship” activities in the Asia Times: 

Over a month ago, in an article in these columns, I suggested a number of reasons why North Korea may well become a quasi-satellite of China.

Well, it’s happening even faster than I expected. In all the excitement about Kim Jong-eun’s coming-out for a second time, at the 65th birthday of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) on October 10, we risk missing another key aspect of that big Pyongyang parade.

The “reptile press” – one of my favorite North Korean phrases; yup, I’m a lizard and proud – all oohed and aahed at their first glimpse of the “young general”. Most paid less attention to a middle-aged chap also standing on the podium, not far from the clearly ailing Kim Jong-il. The one without a badge – meaning he isn’t North Korean. A rare privilege for a foreigner.

How now, Zhou
Meet Zhou Yongkang. Hardly a household name, yet ranked ninth in China’s politburo. A former minister of public security (2002-2007), he still has responsibilities in that key area.

Now Zhou has a new role too: he is China’s point man on North Korea. This seems to have been his first trip there, but it won’t be his last. Barely a week later, back in Beijing, he was on the job again, this time hosting a large visiting North Korean delegation (of which more below).

Zhou has been parachuted in above Wang Jiarui, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s international liaison department, who in recent years had been China’s most frequent flyer to Pyongyang. Wang is still on the case: he was part of the October 10 delegation too, but clearly ranked below Zhou.

This seems less a demotion for Wang than a broadening of Beijing’s agenda. Wang’s main task, a thankless one, was and is to try to chivvy the Kims into line on the nuclear issue. That remains a key goal, but now in a wider context. China wants to deepen its overall relations with North Korea. To that end, bringing in a new more senior figure to take charge flatters the Kims, while Zhou’s background in public security is doubtless meant to reassure them.

China means business
Who else did Zhou bring along? Not the usual cross-section of the great and the good, but the neighbors: meaning senior figures from the three Chinese provinces – Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang – which border or are close to North Korea. This trio had a special dinner with a quartet who are their North Korean equivalents: the party secretaries – provincial governors in all but name – from North Pyongan, Jagang, Ryanggang and North Hamgyong, the four provinces which adjoin China across the Yalu (Amnok in Korean) and Tumen rivers.

Not only dinner, but a deal. On the eve of Pyongyang’s parade, the two sides signed a trade agreement. No details were given, but again each side’s border bigwigs were in evidence.

Nor did it end there. A week later, one of North Korea’s rising stars led a big delegation to China, with provinces again prominent. Aged only 53, much younger than most of North Korea’s gerontocratic elite, Mun Kyong-dok is a new alternate politburo member. He also holds the key job of party secretary for Pyongyang. As such, on September 30 he gave a keynote speech in front of 150,000 people, congratulating Kim Jong-il on his re-election as leader.

October 16 saw Mun on the road, shepherding all 11 of North Korea’s provincial or big city party secretaries to – where else? – Beijing. Welcoming them, Zhou Yongkang – who else? – noted that this was “the first time that the secretaries from all the WPK provincial and municipal committees have visited China”, adding, “I wish that you will expand exchange with various Chinese regions you’re visiting and achieve success from your tours.” Mun replied that “We will study and learn the successful experiences from China.”

Maybe this time?
We’ve heard that before, even from Kim Jong-il – who forgets all about it as soon as he gets back home. But as Sally Bowles sings in Cabaret: “Maybe this time.” Sending such a large team – a full house, indeed – on the road in this way, including several younger and newly appointed provincial party bosses, looks like a real effort to take things forward. China won’t be impressed if its mendicant neighbor merely rattles the begging bowl again.

Mun’s team went on to – where else? – the northeast, visiting factories in Heilongjiang and Jilin. These provinces have in the past had bones to pick with their unneighborly neighbor, which too often fails to pay for coal or other goods – and sometimes doesn’t even return the railway wagons used to deliver them. That sort of tiresome trickery will have to stop. Time will tell whether North Korea has really turned over a new leaf in its business dealings.

Blood brothers
On another front, by a convenient coincidence October 19 was the 60th anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean War. The massed ranks of Chinese People’s Volunteers (CPV) – old British army joke: “I want three volunteers: You, you and you!” – turned the tide, saved Kim Il-sung’s bacon and stopped General Douglas MacArthur wiping the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) off the map.

Cue yet more love-ins. The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) ran a stirring headline: “Friendship Forged in Blood in Anti-US War.” Special events included a photo exhibition, a Chinese film week and performances by a visiting art troupe from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). A delegation from the Korean People’s Army visited China, led by vice minister of the People’s Armed Forces Pyon Il-son: a hitherto obscure general, but evidently another name to watch.

China reciprocated by sending a better-known bigwig. (Speaking of which, he wears one – or so says Wigipedia.) Unlike Zhou Yongkang, who is new to this patch, General Guo Boxiong – vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission – has had North Korean links for at least a decade; he visited in 2001 with then-president Jiang Zemin.

Usually the CPV anniversary is marked by a low-key wreath-laying and a few press articles. But 60 is a big one, and this time Pyongyang pulled out all the stops. There was a mass rally – “held with splendor”, gushed KCNA – with Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-eun in attendance and much stirring rhetoric. The dear leader also hosted a dinner, again with his son present.

Even Arirang has got in on the act. North Korea’s striking yet introverted mass games have finally admitted (pace juche) that the Kims didn’t go it alone; they got by with a little help from their friends. KCNA on October 22 described a newly added scene, “Friendship Arirang”. This highlights the role of the CPV, portrayed with “drums of different sizes, ribbons, red flags and other hand props … several-dozen-meter-long dragons, pandas and lions.”

We helped you first
One wonders what Chinese visitors who are the mainstay of North Korea’s thin tourist trade make of such cliches – or the fact that, the way Pyongyang tells it, that is only half the story. For Arirang also, and first, depicts “the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army and Chinese armed units fighting together against the Japanese imperialists”. The implication is that this was somehow reciprocal: Korea helped China out, and then China repaid the compliment. Note also the disrespect: Korea had an army, China merely “armed units”. What, no PLA?

Pull the other one, comrades. True, a small but gallant band of Korean communists under Mu Chong, a veteran of the Long March, were with Mao Zedong in Yanan. Separately, the young Kim Il-sung was one of a few guerillas – under Chinese command – who skirmished with the Japanese in Manchuria before being chased across the border into the Soviet Union. Kim came back in Soviet uniform and set about purging rivals – including Mu Chong, who had to flee to China. All quite a can of worms, which it seems unwise of North Korea to risk opening.

CPV casualty figures tell their own story. This year Beijing quantified these. A staggering three million Chinese troops fought in what China still calls the “War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea”. Over 180,000 never came back. PLA statistics show 114,084 killed in action or accidents, with another 25,621 missing. A further 70,000 died from wounds, illness or other causes. There are 183,108 registered war martyrs. Others put China’s losses as even higher. With all respect to Mu Chong, a few Koreans’ sacrifices for China don’t begin to compare.

Nuclear hopes and fears
China’s many and mixed motives vis-a-vis North Korea now include never to get dragged into war like that again. To that end, Beijing still professes faith in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program which it hosts, even though these achieved little tangible – despite many hopes, and much talking-up – over five long years. (They began in 2003 and have been stalled since 2008.)

Here too there is fresh activity. Hardly had the cheers echoing in Kim Il-sung Square died away than the North’s long-time nuclear negotiator Kim Kye-gwan, newly promoted to first vice minister, led a delegation to Beijing on October 12. There followed four days of what KCNA called “an exhaustive and candid discussion on DPRK-China relations, resumption of the six-party talks and the regional situation, etc.” It added: “The DPRK is ready for the resumption of the above-said talks but decided not to go hasty [sic] but to make ceaseless patient efforts now that the US and some other participating countries are not ready…”

True. South Korea and Japan, like the United States, see no point in dusting off the six-party circus without clear signals from Pyongyang on two fronts: a serious will to give up nuclear weapons, as against playing games; and an admission that it sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March.

That is a hard gap for Beijing to bridge – especially if there is any basis to recent rumors that North Korea, so far from disarming, may be planning a third nuclear test. Somehow I doubt this. China’s fresh embrace of its tiresome neighbor is not unconditional. I would expect its price for propping up the Kims to be twofold: Market reforms – and no more nuclear tests.

Another bang would sorely tax China’s patience with this tiresome thorn in its northeastern flesh. Beijing is still sheltering number one son Kim Jong-nam, who on October 12 rained (or an earthier verb springs to mind) on little brother’s parade by declaring that he personally was against a third-generation succession. Might anyone try to change his mind? Jong-nam may look ghastly, but he is pro-reform. If Jong-eun proves a pest or a dud, China has alternatives.

Read the full story here:
North Korea: Embracing the dragon
Asia Times
Aidan Foster-Carter
10/28/2010

According to Senator Lugar’s web page:

On October 22, 2010, Senator Lugar, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member, released a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report on implementation of sanctions for North Korea.

Following renewed interest in sanctions against North Korea in the wake of the sinking of South Korea’s Cheonan ship, which killed 46 individuals, Lugar asked the CRS to evaluate the implementation of the U.N. sanctions already in place.

You can read Sen. Lugar’s original request for the report here. (PDF)

The CRS report he received can be found here. (PDF)

I have added this report to my growing collection of DPRK-focused CRS reports found here.

According to the APF:

North Korea is heading for a “chronic” new food crisis with drought and floods in different parts of the country exacerbated by cuts in international aid, the United Nations said.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern “that the acute humanitarian needs” of at least 3.5 million women and children in North Korea would worsen because of food shortages.

Even though North Korea is considered by many to be the world’s most isolated state, Ban said in a report to be discussed Friday that “the global economic crisis is further increasing the levels of hardship” adding to the “chronic food insecurity”.

South Korea on Friday said it had no immediate plan to resume large-scale food aid to North Korea despite the UN warning on the food crisis.

“The government stance is that in order for the massive government food aid to be resumed, overall inter-Korean relations must be taken into account,” Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-Joo told AFP.

She stressed, however, that Seoul allows smaller-scale “humanitarian aid” to the North, including 5,000 tonnes of rice and other aid supplies currently being shipped victims of floods that devastated northwestern North Korea in August.

…

There has been a shortage of rainfall in some parts of the country but in August torrential downpours caused floods in the north, near the Chinese border.

The UN predicted that the cereal yield would be nearly a fifth lower than in 2009.

It said the country needs 3.5 million tons of cereals a year to feed its population and would have to import 1.1 million tons. In addition, UN agencies had raised only 20 percent of the 492 million dollars they estimated in 2009 would be needed for the North.

Ban quoted the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) as saying that each year, some 40,000 children under five become “acutely malnourished” in North Korea, with 25,000 needing hospital treatment.

“The lack of maintenance of water and sanitation systems increases rates of diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections, which are leading causes of child death.

“In addition, one third of women of childbearing age suffer from anaemia, a nutrition deficiency that is also a major cause of maternal mortality.”

The poor diet across the country leads to widespread “infectious diseases, physical and mental development disorders, poor labour productivity and an increased risk of premature death,” said the grim report.

A survey carried out by the government with UN support showed that about one third of the population suffer from stunting — below normal body growth. In some regions the figure was 45 percent.

The report was intended to be on human rights in North Korea and the UN chief said there was an “urgent need” for Kim Jong-Il’s regime to take steps to provide the basic right to food, water, sanitation and health.

The UN reported little change in the “comprehensive restrictions” on freedom of speech, religion and opinion in the tightly policed state. “The government’s control over the flow of information is strict and pervasive.”

Ban highlighted the difficulty in getting reliable information on events in the North.

But he said: “There are a number of reports concerning public executions, the use of torture, forced labour and the ill-treatment of refugees or asylum-seekers repatriated from abroad.”

His report said North Korea’s UN delegation had acknowledged that public executions were carried out for “very brutal violent crimes.”

It added that the UN envoy on rights in North Korea had raised concerns with the North’s mission about conditions in six prisons and detention centers reportedly used for political prisoners.

With the North embroiled in a dispute with South Korea over the sinking of a warship and in a nuclear arms standoff with the international community, Ban said humanitarian aid should not be restricted “on the basis of political and security concerns.”

Though unrelated to the UN findings, South Korea is shipping 5,000 tons of rice to the DPRK today. According to Yonhap:

The Red Cross aid, which is aimed at helping the North cope with the aftermath of floods, marks South Korea’s first government-funded provision of rice to the North since President Lee Myung-bak took office in early 2008 on a pledge to link aid to progress in efforts to end Pyongyang’s nuclear programs.

Seoul also plans to send a shipment of 10,000 tons of cement to the North later this week.

A total of 13.9 billion won (US$12.3 million) came from the government coffers to finance the flood aid.

Also Monday, three Red Cross officials prepared to fly to the Chinese city to receive the rice and instant noodles there and transport the relief supplies by truck to the flood-hit North Korean border city of Sinuiju, according to officials from the Red Cross and the Unification Ministry.

The cargo ships are expected to arrive in Dandong around Wednesday.

Rice will be delivered in five-kilogram packages, and each package is marked with “Donation from the Republic of Korea,” South Korea’s official name.

In August, South Korea first offered to provide relief aid to the North after devastating floods hit the communist nation. North Korea later asked for rice, heavy construction equipment and materials.

Stories about South Korean aid in 2010 can be found here.

China has also pledged food assistance. According to KBS:

A Japanese daily says China pledged 500-thousand tons of rice aid to North Korea during Kim Jong-il’s visit to China in August.

The New York Times raises the concern that food aid may be diverted.  According to the article:

Rice, a staple of the diets in both Koreas, is also a highly symbolic item in terms of food aid throughout Asia. The 5,000 tons of rice in the shipment on Monday can feed about 325,000 people for a month, according to Red Cross estimates.

Some analysts and aid workers expressed concern that the rice would likely be diverted to political elites, loyal party members and the military rather than delivered to the neediest in the North. That has been the pattern, they said, of previous government aid deliveries.

“I’m not unhappy about food going up, but I fear that this kind of government-to-government distribution to Pyongyang will be carried out along loyalty lines,” said Tim Peters, founder of the civic group Helping Hands Korea. “Distribution through small NGOs that are more strategically placed and can get the food into the interior and places like remote mining towns, that is the more intelligent strategy.”

Mr. Peters said his group, which primarily assists North Korean refugees, has received numerous reports from defectors from what he called “the Siberia of North Korea” that residents in the hinterlands “never see any of this kind of food aid.”

Five weeks ago, a truck convoy delivered 203 tons of rice to North Korea, the first rice donations of any kind from the South in nearly three years. That nongovernmental assistance, which was donated by charity groups and opposition political parties, came one day after a shipment of 530 tons of flour was sent by a South Korean provincial government and civic groups.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The senior secretaries of all North Korea’s 11 metropolitan and provincial party committees paid a rare collective visit to a senior member of the Communist Party of China in Beijing on Tuesday.

The North Korean delegation led by Mun Kyong-dok, the senior secretary of the Pyongyang municipal party committee, met with Zhou Yongkang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee who ranks ninth in the hierarchy, to discuss economic cooperation.

Zhou was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying it was “the first time” in the history of bilateral relations that senior secretaries of the Workers Party’s metropolitan and provincial committees have visited China as a group. “I wish that you will expand exchange with various Chinese regions you’re visiting and achieve success from your tours.”

The North Koreans also met with their Chinese counterparts to discuss investment in development projects in the North. The Chinese officials were in Beijing to attend the fifth plenary session of the 17th Communist Party Central Committee.

A South Korean government official said, “The North Korean officials’ visit to Beijing is equivalent to all 16 South Korean metropolitan mayors and provincial governors flying to Washington as a group to discuss exchange and cooperation with ruling-party lawmakers and state governors in the U.S.” He said since Kim Jong-il’s son Jong-un was established as the official successor to the leadership, the North and China have increased the frequency of personnel exchanges “to discuss more substantive matters than before.”

The profiles of the Chinese delegation that attended the 65th anniversary celebrations of the North Korean Workers Party were also exceptional. It included senior officials of the three Chinese northeastern provinces — Sun Zhengcai, the secretary of the Jilin provincial party committee, Chen Xi, the deputy secretary of the Liaoning provincial party committee, and Du Yuxin, the deputy secretary of the Heilongjiang provincial party committee.

They were welcomed at Sunan Airport by Ju Yong-sik, the senior secretary of the party committee in Jagang Province, a border region. The senior secretaries of the party committees in all four North Korean provinces bordering China — Ju from Jagang Province, Ri Man-gon from North Pyongan Province, O Su-yong from North Hamgyong Province and Kim Hi-taek from Yanggang Province — attended a dinner that evening in honor of the Chinese delegation.

“There have recently been more signs of the North and China deepening and developing economic cooperation, including various development projects focusing on the border areas,” a Unification Ministry official said. “It seems that after the North’s Workers Party and the Chinese Communist Party finished talks at headquarters level, their provincial party committees have now begun concrete cooperation.”

Military exchanges are also increasing ahead of the 60th anniversary of the day the Chinese joined the Korean War on Oct. 25.

The official North Korean Central Broadcasting Station on Tuesday reported a delegation of Chinese People’s Volunteer Veterans led by Wang Hai, a former Air Force commander, and the People’s Liberation Army’s art troupe arrived in Pyongyang for the anniversary.

O Kuk-ryol, vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, and Pak Jae-kyong, vice minister of People’s Armed Forces, hosted a reception for them.

On Oct. 14, a North Korean Army delegation led by Pyon In-son, another vice minister of People’s Armed Forces, visited China, to tour PLA units. Quoting the North’s official Rodong Sinmun daily, Xinhua said, “Friendship bonded by blood in the previous generations is being handed down to the next generation.”

A South Korean security official said, “The North is apparently trying to counter the South Korea-U.S. military alliance, which has been strengthened since the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan in March, by intensifying military ties with China, as well as attempting to escape international economic isolation by leaning on China.”

Mike has more at NK Leadership Watch.

Read the full story here:
N.Korea, China Grow Ever Closer
Choson Ilbo
10/21/2010

Low-resolution satellite image of the Tumen-Namyang border.

UPDATE: Here is the original story in Asahi:

Goods from North Korea are being traded freely in a thriving market that opened last week in a Chinese city near the border with the reclusive state, according to sources from the region.

Marine products–frozen squid is a specialty–are prominently displayed, the sources said.

The market in Tumen, Jilin province, opened on Oct. 13. It appears to be the latest development in growing economic exchanges between Beijing and Pyongyang following a visit to China by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in August and moves to secure a smooth transition of power to his third son, Kim Jong Un, the sources said.

Earlier this month, it was learned that Tumen is preparing to accept an influx of cheap labor from North Korea.

The market, which has a total space of about 10,000 square meters, is located on the banks of the Tumenjiang (Tumengang in Korean) river, which serves as the common border between the two countries.

Currently, the market is open twice a week, but there are plans for it to become a daily feature in the near future, the sources said.

According to the sources, Chinese residents in Tumen, which is located inside the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture within Jilin province, can obtain travel permits to North Korea by presenting identification.

With entry permits in hand, the Chinese are able to cross the river to Namyang, where they are allowed to buy products at designated areas, provided they return to China the same day.

Purchases worth up to 8,000 yuan (about 96,000 yen, or $1180) are treated as duty-free and can be sold at the Tumen market.

The sources said about 150 people showed up at the market on Oct. 13, including merchants as well as ordinary citizens.

North Korean marine products, whose prices are considerably cheaper than Chinese products, dominated the goods on display.

A Tumen city official declined to provide details on the market, saying “it is still in the experimental stage.”

But sources suggest that the market is part of efforts to enhance commerce in northeastern China, which has trailed in economic development compared with coastal regions in the rest of the country.

The market also provides a crucial means for North Korea to earn hard currency by freely selling goods in China.

The idea of setting up such a market is not entirely new. In 2005, the Jilin provincial government authorized the opening of a market as a means to revitalize the border region. However, the project had to be shelved after an international uproar over an underground nuclear test conducted by North Korea.

The plan resurfaced after the region encompassing the Tumenjiang river district and the cities of Jilin and Changchun was designated in 2009 as a development and deregulation promotion zone, the first such national-level development project for a border region.

Jilin province has since taken strident measures to encourage exchanges with North Korea with which it shares a sprawling border.

Sun Zhengcai, a top Chinese Communist Party official from Jilin province, joined a delegation of party officials to North Korea this month on the occasion of the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea, and is believed to have engaged in talks with the North Korean side on boosting commerce.

The opening of the market follows reports that North Korean laborers may soon be able to work in Chinese factories in Tumen legally, and that Chinese businesses have acquired rights to use and develop wharf facilities at the ports of Rajin and Chongjin in northern North Korea.

Chinese businesses are also reportedly moving toward participating in the construction of infrastructure such as railways and roads to access the ports.

ORIGINAL POST: According to KBS:

A Japanese daily says a “free market” operated by North Korean and Chinese citizens has opened near the Tumen River, which flows between China and North Korea.

The Asahi Shimbun said Wednesday that the market was established in the city of Tumen in China’s Jilin Province a week ago.

The paper said the ten-thousand-square-meter market allows Chinese people to buy up to eight-thousand yuan worth of North Korean goods tax-free each day for resell in China.

The paper said that on the day the market opened last Wednesday, some 150 Chinese purchased tax-exempt frozen squid from North Koreans at the market for resell.

The Asahi said North Korea and China are apparently expanding bilateral economic exchanges following North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s visit to China in August, citing Chinese firms’ recent move to employ North Korean workers.

Unfortunately high-resolution satellite imagery of the area is not yet available on Google Earth, but we do know that Namyang contains 1 of 4 railway links the DPRK maintains to China and 1 of 8 ground transportation crossings.  Besides Sinuiju, it is the only other DPRK border crossing with both rail and automobile bridges.

Read the full story here:
Market for North Korean goods opens in Chinese border city
Asahi
Daisuke Nishimura
10/21/2010

Asahi: NK-China Tax-Free Market Opens in Tumen City
KBS
10/20/2010

According to the Daily NK:

In Dandong, the number of people studying the Chosun language (Korean) is increasing, while real estate prices are rising on the back of rumors that Shinuiju, just across the North Korean border, will soon be opened up to trade and investment.

One anonymous Korean-Chinese trader who already engages in business with North Korea in the area told The Daily NK on the 15th, “The rumor among Chinese traders who have recently been in North Korea has it that ‘The North Korea authorities will open Shinuiju sooner or later.’”

As a result, he said, “There is currently an upsurge in the price of apartments and shops in Dandong, while the number of people wanting to learn the Chosun language is increasing.”

The trader explained that for the last three or four years the real estate market in Dandong has been flat. However, with reports of Kim Jong Eun’s internal appointment as the successor spreading earlier this year, the price of Hanquosheng, Dongfang Minzhu, Taiyang Dasha and other luxury apartments has increased by more than ten percent over the course of the summer.

The source pointed in particular to the fact that the price of apartments under construction in the Langtou Port area has gone from 2,000 Yuan/m² (approximately $300) in May to 3,200 Yuan/m² (approximately $480) in October. The neighborhood has particularly bright prospects as it is the location for the planned Second Yalu River Bridge under an agreement made during the visit to Pyongyang of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in 2009.

The Daily NK’s Korean-Chinese source explained that those primarily responsible for fuelling the real estate gains are Korean-Chinese from the Northeastern provinces of China.

He reported, “Since Dandong has geographical advantages, being cool in summer and warm in winter, as well as being able to provide for North Korea’s development of Shinuiju, the city has emerged as the best investment location for Korean-Chinese people.”

“The expectation that Kim Jong Eun is still young and has experience of life in Switzerland; therefore he knows well the need to develop the country and will have no choice but to make that decision, is driving the investment by Korean-Chinese,” the source added.

Naturally, the presumption that Shinuiju will soon offer some new opportunities for business is producing a new trend for learning the North Korean language.

Wang, a 21 year-old student from a university in Dandong said, “Chinese students know that South Korean is different from Chosun,” and went on, “Until now, South Korean has been all the rage thanks to Hallyu (as the South Korean cultural influence in wider Asia is known), but recently the number of students wanting to learn Chosun has been drastically increasing.”

There are presumed to be roughly 3,000-4,000 North Koreans residing in Dandong, including students. Some of them exchange languages with Chinese students, while some others give private classes for between five and ten Yuan an hour.

Alongside which, private Korean language institutes in Dandong are enjoying increased demand.

One South Korean who manages a Korean language institute in Dandong told The Daily NK, “In the case of Korean language institutes in downtown Dandong, each class has seen an increase of four or five students for this fall semester. Alongside Hallyu, the expectation that Shinuiju will open up has meant that the number of Chinese young people wanting to learn Korean is steadily increasing.”

Read the full story here:
Shinuiju Development Making Waves in Dandong
Daily NK
Park In Ho
10/18/2010

According to KBS:

The Yomiuri Shimbun says China’s Jilin Province will hire 100 North Koreans this month to work at a plastic manufacturing plant in Tumen City. The report says their wages will be less than half of what Chinese workers are paid.

Japan’s Asahi Shimbun says China’s introduction of North Korean labor is picking up speed. It says that nearby Dandong City in Liaoning Province has also begun the process of bringing in one-thousand North Korean workers.

Read the full story here:
China Border Cities Hiring NK Workers
KBS
10/18/2010