North Korean Economy Watch

The Global Times (PR of China) has posted a very interesting and blunt assessment of the DPRK’s newly announced Special Economic Zone by Zhang Liangui (张连瑰), a specialist in Korean issues and professor at the International Strategic Research Bureau at the Party School of the Central Committee of CPC.  The article is posted below:

After drawing up a 10-Year Economic Development Plan at the beginning of this year, North Korea has announced several measures to readjust its ties with China from an aid-dependent relationship to an economic partnership. Will North Korea switch from its militaristic focus to economic development? What are the implications of the recently announced Hwanggumpyong island project in the middle of the Yalu River? Nanfang People Weekly magazine talked to Zhang Liangui (Zhang), a specialist in Korean issues and professor at the International Strategic Research Bureau at the Party School of the Central Committee of CPC, on these issues.

Q: What is the rationale behind North Korea’s efforts to facilitate the joint development of Hwanggumpyong with China?

Zhang: There are several reasons. The most straightforward motive is obviously to ameliorate the shortage of foreign money, since North Korea is suffering from international sanctions as a result of its nuclear weapon development.

Beyond that, North Korea wants to strengthen its economic ties with China, avoiding a hopeless isolation from the international community. Third, this move also reflects North Korea’s territorial concerns.

Q: Why do you think the cooperation has something to do with territorial issues?

Zhang: Because of the border on the Yalu River. Usually rivers on the border between two sovereign nations are demarcated on a half-to-half basis, which means there’s a middle line of control accepted by both sides.

However, the Yalu River is jointly held by both China and North Korea, while the latter has exclusive possession of Hwanggumpyong island.

For years due to alluvial deposition, the island has continued to expand. It now has abutted on the Chinese side, and local government has to build a fence along the border.

Under this circumstance, North Korea has de facto control over the part of Yalu River to the east of Hwanggumpyong island.

Thus the development on Hwanggumpyong island may help North Korea secure its territorial and river possession.

With the erection of buildings and infrastructure, North Korea expects Chinese developers to build the ground base, cement the foundations and free the island from the threat of alluvial erosion. If there’re many buildings, North Korea will have safe and unchallenged control over the island.

After acquiring Hwanggumpyong, North Korea asked farmers to plant trees and develop farmland. This caused the island to expand as well as causing disputes between the two sides. China should be fully aware of these concerns if it is looking for long-term cooperation over Hwanggumpyong.

Q: Why China is willing to cooperate and provide 80 percent of the funds?

Zhang: Many Chinese believe the US will try to contain China, especially at a time of tension among Northeastern Asian countries. The security concerns may give China and North Korea impetus for cooperation.

China also perceives North Korea’s instability, both economically and politically. China’s aid to North Korea is understandable and necessary in pursuing its goal of regional stability.

But China should be clear that its aid doesn’t serve the purpose of saving a specific government. The survival of any particular government is up to North Korea’s domestic will. And China doesn’t need to intervene in everything.

Q: Why did North Korea grant the opportunity to a Hong Kong enterprise? Will Hwanggumpyong become another Hong Kong, as North Korea wishes?

Zhang: It seems that North Korea is particularly enthusiastic about cooperating with Hong Kong firms. The precedent is the casino in Rason. A casino managed by Hong Kong executives can better woo Chinese tourists, as well as corrupt officials and outlaws.

However, Hong Kong’s prosperity is based on its transparent government, advanced legal system, high credibility, well-established infrastructure and financial markets, and in particular, stability.

It remains a difficult mission for today’s North Korea to build another Hong Kong.

Q: Will the Hwanggumpyong project attract more Chinese business people in the future?

Zhang: North Korea has reason to expect more investors to come. But I think there are several reasons preventing a great number of investors from going to Hwanggumpyong. According to my experience in dealing with Chinese business people, many of them complain of a lack of lawful regulations and the capricious North Korean economic policies.

Besides, many countries including China don’t accept credit cards issued by North Korea. Understandably, much of China’s national investment in North Korea comes out of political reasons rather than economic motivations. Unless North Korea has a stable and predictable government as well as international credibility, the prospect of foreign investment in North Korea is bleak。

Q: What do you think of the 10-Year Economic Development Plan, announced recently by the North Korean government?

Zhang: It seems 10 years is a bit long for North Korea’s management habits. So far, North Korea hasn’t been able to follow through on many of its long-term economic projects.

For example, the Kaesong Industrial Park was once planned to be a lucrative business produced by North-South Korean cooperation.

In May 2009, North Korea unilaterally announced a demand for wage and rent rises and scrapped the agreement they had signed up to. In 2010, the sinking of the Cheonan warship further hampered industrial activities in the region. Thus I think the 10-Year Economic Development Plan remains provisional and is intended more or less for propaganda purpose.

Q: Why does North Korea stress that its 10-Year Economic Development Plan “isn’t a reform and opening-up policy?”

Zhang: This is obviously aimed at China. Many Chinese media are under the delusion that North Korea is emulating China’s example to get rid of poverty and develop its country. In fact, North Korea is very unhappy about this claim.

North Korea is still against the idea of “reform and opening-up,” albeit now inexplicitly. It once equated “reform and opening-up policy” with revisionism and imperialists’ supposed conspiracy to topple socialist regimes.

During Kim Jong-il’s visit on June 5, while the Chinese media speculated about North Korea going through “reform and opening-up policy,” the North Korean media never used this phrase.

Imports from North Korea: Existing Rules,Implications of the KORUS FTA, and the Kaesong Industrial Complex
Mark E. Manyin, Coordinator, Jeanne J. Grimmett, Vivian C. Jones, Dick K. Nanto, Michaela D. Platzer, Dianne E. Rennack
Congressional Research Service (CRS)
June 2, 2011

Download the PDF here.  This publication has been added to the list of previous CRS reports on the DPRK here.

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Trade with China 1995-2009
Nathaniel Aden
Nautilus Institute
June 7, 2011

View the paper here.  A link to this paper has been added to the DPRK Economic Statistics Page. The Nautilus Insitute has also posted links to some very interesting presentations from the 2010 DPRK Energy and Minerals Working Group.

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[Book] The Contemporary North Korean Politics: History, Ideology, and Power System (현대 북한의 정치: 역사, 이념, 권력체계)
Jong Song-Jang (정성장)
More information TBA, but see here and here (Korean).

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[Book] Architekturführer Pjöngjang (German: Pyongyang Architecture Guide)
Philipp Meuser
Order here at Amazon. More here and here.

Yonhap has published a short article on the difficulties of analyzing North Korean trade data.  According to the article:

Data on North Korea’s trade with other countries is scarce, and there are stark contrasts in recent estimates from South Korea and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in terms of both volume and composition.

North Korea’s imports and exports, excluding those with South Korea, reached US$4.17 billion last year, according to a report published last month by the South’s state-run Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA). The North’s trade with China — its chief ally and benefactor — amounted to some $3.5 billion, or 83 percent of the reclusive state’s total trade with other countries, the report said. Inter-Korean trade, meanwhile, reached $1.91 billion in the same period.

The findings were based on an analysis of annual trade reports filed by countries that deal with North Korea, as Pyongyang does not provide its own economic data.

The IMF, however, estimates North Korea’s total trade volume at 5.91 billion euros ($8.39 billion) last year, about double KOTRA’s figure, according to a recent report by the Voice of America (VOA), which cites the European Commission. The IMF estimates North Korea’s trade with China at some $3.9 billion, which is similar to KOTRA’s estimate, but accounts for a much smaller proportion of the total volume at 46 percent.

These figures are also based on data from North Korea’s trade partners, but appear to include some of these countries’ exports and imports with South Korea, according to experts.

The IMF’s estimates may be affected by errors in distinguishing the North from the South, while KOTRA’s South Korean staff are able to filter out many of these mistakes, the experts said. The trade agency’s figure may also be smaller because it relies on official data from governments, while the IMF collects its material from a wide range of sources.

“We do not reflect figures that we do not see as normal trade, such as foreign aid or under-the-table transactions,” a KOTRA official said on the condition of anonymity.

Back in February, Marcus Noland had this to say about KOTRA trade statistics (in regards to the % of the DPRK’s trade comprised of transactions with China):

The canard’s origin is in the odd way that the official (South) Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) reports data on North Korean trade.  KOTRA excludes trade with South Korea, the North’s second largest trade partner after China, from North Korean international trade figures, treating these cross-border exchanges as “domestic.” (Funny, I’ve never noticed a minefield separating Maryland and Virginia or encountered heavily armed guards manning the Texas-Oklahoma border.) Then, to compound matters, KOTRA seems to have stopped following some of North Korea’s trade with Middle Eastern countries. The explanation could be budget cuts; there is also speculation that it is politics—dovish South Korean governments were reluctant to report North Korean involvement with dodgy Middle East regimes; or it could be general disinterest.  Whatever the reason, the breadth of KOTRA’s coverage of North Korean trade in the Middle East has dropped considerably, further exaggerating China’s prominence.

…

The upshot is that there is a huge divergence between the figures produced by KOTRA and those derived from UN and IMF data.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea, IMF differ over volume of N.K. trade
Yonhap
2011-6-17

According to the Korea Herald (h/t L.P.):

A number of economic cooperation projects appear ready to take shape between North Korea and China.

A businessman here claimed the North and China have signed a more concrete agreement last year following up on a 2005 preliminary deal to jointly develop an offshore oil field.

“The North has agreed with China to jointly develop an offshore oil field in the waters off Nampo,” a western coastal town, said Kim Young-il, chief executive of a South Korean trading firm and inter-Korean trade adviser to the Korea International Trade Association.

“The North Korea-China agreement on joint development of the oil field seems to have taken place last year.”

It is estimated that some 20 billion tons of crude oil is buried under the Bohai Gulf continental shelf which stretches across the Korea Bay between the North Pyongan Province and China’s Liaoning Province, Kim said during a policy debate session hosted by a legislator.

“The joint exploration would be economically viable because, once about a third of the oil reserve can be extracted, they can extract between 7 and 8 billion tons, enough to meet China’s entire demand for nearly 30 years,” Kim said.

Read the full story here:
Communist allies seek strategic interests
Korea Herald
Kim So-hyun
2011-6-1

According to Xinhua:

Maritime authorities in China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Wednesday launched their first joint patrol on the Yalu River, located on the border of the two countries.

The action, aimed at maintaining navigation order along the river, was conducted by Maritime Safety Administration of Dandong City, China’s northeastern Liaoning Province, and its counterpart in DPRK’s P’yonganbuk-do.

Three vessels from China and two vessels from the DPRK inspected about 92 km along the river and cleared ships and fishing boats hindering the normal flow of ships around the river’s Dadong Port, according to the Dandong Maritime Safety Administration.

In April this year, maritime authorities of the two countries signed a cooperative agreement on the management of the Yalu River. In the agreement, the two sides vowed to conduct joint patrols and rescue on the river.

Read the full story here:
China, DPRK launches first patrol on Yalu River
Xinhua
2011-6-15

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief 2011-6-13

Kim Jong Il has made four official appearances from May 28 to June 3 since his last visit to China, starting with industrial facility inspections. This could be construed as North Korea’s attempt to highlight current facility-building projects and the superiority of its leadership in improving the people’s economy, and to rally the North Korean people.

Kim commemorated his recent unofficial visit to China by attending a celebratory performance. In a speech, he commented on the outcome of the visit and encouraged solidarity and morale building of its people.

On his return from China, Kim provided field guidance at the construction site of Huichon Power Plant. He called for the early completion of the plant as an essential step in resolving North Korea’s chronic power shortage. Specifically, Kim commented, “Resolving the power shortage is the major task in order to build a strong and prosperous nation . . . . appropriate units must ensure timely production of facilities, equipments and materials.” Kim is reported to have visited the construction site of Huichon on five occasions from September 2009 to December of last year.

In addition, Kim visited a fish breeding institute and Kosan Fruit Farm, encouraging the pursuit of technology development projects through modernization and scientific advancement.

At the fish breeding institute, Kim called for the improvement of the ecological environment of the fishery and for the increase in fish production by constructing more fish farms and by advancing the facility in a way that meets the demands of industrialization and modernization.

Similarly at the Kosan Fruit Farm (located in the Gangwon Province), production was stressed once again as an important task. Kim called for the improvement in fruit production through modernization and the integration of science and technology. This was Kim’s third visit to the farm since 2008.

Kim’s official visits this year are slightly fewer in number compared with the same period of time last year: from 70 visits in 2010 (19 military-related, 29 economic-related, 6 foreign-related, 13 other activities), to 60 visits in 2011 (13 military-related, 28 economic-related, 6 foreign-related, 13 other activities) in 2011.

All major DPRK news outlets covered Kim’s recent visit to China. The Politburo of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee organized a meeting calling for the strengthening of DPRK-China relations. Likewise, the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly praised the current DPRK-China economic cooperation activities and growing friendship between the two nations.

Pictured above (Google Maps): The Wonjong Bridge and route traveled by Chinese drivers from the border to Rason

UPDATE 6 (2011-6-15): Here is a great news video of the Chinese driving tour:

Click image to watch video at YouTube

UPDATE 5 (2011-6-10): Barbara Demick writes in the L.A. Times:

No doubt the most attractive part of the package for China is the access to the port in Rajin, part of a larger special economic zone known as Rason. In 1860, China’s weak Qing dynasty signed a treaty that ceded a long strip of coastline to Russia, leaving Chinese Manchuria landlocked. The use of the port in Rajin makes it easier to transport raw materials from the resource-rich region of northeastern China to the industrial hubs in southern China. In December, the Dalian-based Chuangli group, which had spent $3.6 million renovating the port, shipped 20,000 tons of Manchurian coal through the North Korean port to Shanghai.

“It is faster and cheaper to ship through North Korea’s port than to use the railroads,” said a businessman who was in Rajin this week as preparations were underway for the groundbreaking. “Everybody in Rajin is very excited about what the Chinese are doing. They think it will bring jobs.”

UPDATE 4 (2011-6-9): KCNA coverage of the Hwanggumphyong ground breaking ceremony also mentioned developments in Rason:

The [Hwanggumphyong] ceremony was followed by announcing the start of the reconstruction of the Rajin Port-Wonjong road, ground-breaking ceremonies of Athae Rason Cement Factory and the Rason, DPRK-Jilin Province, China High Efficiency Agricultural Model District and departing ceremonies of Chinese domestic freight transit transportation via Rajin Port and private car tourism as the first phase projects for the start of the joint development of the zone.

UPDATE 3 (2011-6-10): China’s Global Times reports on the Chinese business tour:

The first self-drive tour from China to North Korea started on Thursday, with around 100 tourists setting off from Changchun, Jilin Province, to Rason, North Korea, China News Service (CNS) reported.

A total of 24 vehicles carrying around 100 travelers including well-known entrepreneurs, officials with the Changchun Tourism Bureau and provincial government took part in the tour, according to a staff member surnamed Wang with the publicity department of the China Youth Travel Service (CYTS) Tours Corporation Jilin Branch, which organized the tour.

“We’ve spent more than a month preparing for the activity. We sent invitations to tourists and negotiated with the Rason government,” Wang told the Global Times on Thursday.

The tour will last from June 9 to 11, and the cost for each tourist was more than 1,000 yuan ($149), an anonymous staff member with the executive office of the CYTS Tours Corporation Jilin Branch told the Global Times on Thursday.

After assembling at the Changchun Exhibition and Conference Center on Thursday morning and identifying each car with a number, the tourists began their journey at 7 am and planned to reach Hunchun, the border city in Jilin Province that leads to North Korea, in the afternoon, according to the CNS report.

“The 24 vehicles were all provided by the tourists themselves, but we have dispatched a car to lead them and they were all given interphone sets in case some of them fall behind,” she told the Global Times on Thursday.

After passing through Hunchun, the tourists will reach Rason district and tour guides dispatched by the Rason government will lead them to visit Rajin Port and Rajin Bay.

There, they will be able to enjoy children’s performances and also visit local scenic spots, according to the staff member with the executive office of the CYTS Tours Corporation Jilin Branch.

“There were so many people who called to ask about this activity, so I believe we will organize a second tour in the near future,” she told the Global Times.

The North Korean government plans to develop Rason, located in the border area between China and North Korea, into an international economic zone. At the end of May, the North Korean government allowed Chinese tourists to make the self-drive trip to Rason to enjoy its scenery, according to CNS.

“Allowing self-drive tours from China to North Korea means a lot to both countries, because it will increase the interaction and enhance mutual understanding between the two peoples, and consequently, enhance friendly relations between the two countries,” Yang Zhenzhi, a professor at the School of History and Culture (Tourism) with Sichuan University, told the Global Times, adding that the decision will also help to boost economic ties between the two countries.

UPDATE 2 (2011-6-4): According to an earlier report in the Donga Ilbo a “groundbreaking ceremony” for the Rason area will also take place Thursday (June 9).  No doubt this will take place just before the convoy of Chinese investors crosses into the DPRK.  According  to the article:

Sources in China`s Yanbian Autonomous District in Jilin Province and Dandong in Liaoning Province said Friday that the groundbreaking ceremony for the special district in Rason Special City will be held Thursday and that for the development of Hwangkumpyong in the Yalu River near Shinuiju will come Tuesday.

UPDATE 1 (2011-6-6): The news out today indicates that, as earlier reported (see original post below), a convoy of Chinese investors will travel the new road from Wonjong to Rason to explore investment opportunities.  There are a few interesting differences between the time the story was originally published (in April) and today:

Firstly, and the least interesting point, the “investment convoy” is about nine days behind the original schedule. Originally the convoy was to depart for the DPRK on June 1.  The convoy now appears to be departing on June 9.

Secondly, the convoy appears to be operated by a different Chinese tour company.  Back in April the convoy was being coordinated through the Sanjiang International Travel Agency in Hunchun.  The convoy departing this week, however, is run by CYTS Tours.  I do not know enough about either of these businesses to speculate on treasons for the last minute switch in partners.

Thirdly, the cost of the trip has increased significantly.  In April the Sanjiang Travel Agency said the trip would cost 680 Yuan.  Now CYTS Tours says the cost will be 1450 Yuan per person, and the convoy size will be limited to 30 vehicles.

Here is the most recent report in the Donga Ilbo:

Chinese nationals can start traveling Thursday to Rason, a free trade zone in North Korea`s northeastern region, with their own cars for three days.

This is in line with the development plan linking the Chinese cities of Changchun, Jilin and Tumen that the Chinese government is promoting, China’s Xinhua News Agency said Friday.

For starters, the service launched by CYTS Tours will begin with fewer than 30 cars. Travel costs will be 1,450 yuan (224 U.S. dollars) per person, including lodging and eating. Whether anyone has applied remains unknown, however.

People who will start from Changchun Thursday will drive 500 kilometers to Hunchun in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and then enter North Korea through the maritime customs at Quanhe. After crossing the Tumen River, they will go through immigration procedures at the customs office in the North Korean village of Wonjeong-ri and then go to Rason through a Hunchun-Rason road under construction.

The travelers will tour the port of Rajin and then tour Rajin Bay by boat. They will watch a children’s show and visit Sea Village and Wang Hai Guo, where the late founder of North Korea Kim Il Sung visited.

A source at CYTS Tours said, “The product was designed as a part of the (Chinese) government’s travel development plan for Changchun, Jilin and Tumen.”

ORIGINAL POST (2011-4-4): According to the Choson Ilbo:

North Korea is reportedly allowing Chinese motorists to drive to the special economic zone of Rajin-Sonbong so they can look around for investment opportunities there.

A spokesman for Sanjiang International Travel Agency in Hunchun, China on Friday said a group of Chinese motorists will tour Rajin-Sonbong and Duman near the North Korean-Chinese-Russian border under an initiative by the Tourism Bureau of Jilin Province on May 31-June 1. Sanjiang specializes in travels to the lower reaches of the Duman (Tumen) River in North Korea and Russia.

The two-day trip will cost 680 yuan (approximately W115,000) per person.

The Sanjiang staffer said small groups of Chinese motorists have gone to Rajin-Sonbong before, but this is the first large-scale trip organized by the Jilin provincial government and the first time tourists are visiting Duman.

The aim is apparently to lure Chinese investors to Rajin-Sonbong. Early this year, the North agreed with Hunchun city to build a large recreation center and park in its special economic zone.

Back in March 2008, the North allowed South Korean motorists to travel to the scenic Mt. Kumgang resort, but only four months later the tours were suspended after a South Korean tourist was shot dead by a North Korean soldier.

Related historical information:

1. Bridge on China-North Korea border being renovated (2010-4-13)

2. DPRK-China border bridge opens (2010-6-23)

3. Who uses Rajin’s Ports? (2010-5-23)

4. Rason port facilitates intra-China coal distribution (2011-1-4)

Read the original stories here:
China to allow nat`ls to travel to Rason, N.Korea, by car
Donga Ilbo
2011-6-6

Chinese Motorists to Tour N.Korean Investment Zones
Choson Ilbo
2011-4-5

Pictured Above (Google Earth): The new PRC/DPRK economic zone: Hwanggumphyong-ri (Sindo County) and Wihwa Island (Sinuiju and Uiju Counties).  See islands in Google Maps here and here.

UPDATE 13 (2011-6-14): US urges caution.  According to Yonhap:

“We urge transparency, extreme caution and vigilance in any business dealings with North Korea. We urge all United Nations member states to fully implement U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874, which target North Korea’s continued involvement in proliferation, nuclear weapons development and procurement of luxury goods,” the White House official said on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. and South Korea have been putting economic pressure on the impoverished North, which refuses to dismantle its nuclear program and continues military threats. But China, the North’s largest benefactor, has maintained close economic ties with North Korea, prompting criticism that it is undermining U.N. sanctions on Pyongyang imposed after its nuclear and missile tests in 2006 and 2009.

UPDATE 12 (2011-6-9): Here is coverage of the groundbreaking ceremony in KCNA.

UPDATE 11 (2011-6-10): Barbara Demick, writing for the L.A. Times, highlights the low-key nature of the ground-breaking ceremonies as well as providing details of the lease agreements.  According to the article:

Pyongyang publicized the ceremonies, but official Chinese news outlets did not send reporters attend and carried just brief dispatches based largely on news releases. The lack of publicity in China may reflect Beijing’s ambivalence about doing business with an unreliable neighbor and a desire to avoid international criticism for propping up a nuclear-armed country with an abysmal human rights record.

…

China reportedly signed a 50-year-lease for the 4.6-square-mile Hwanggumpyong, where a 30-minute ceremony was held Wednesday. The South Korean Yonhap news service reported that large balloons flew overhead with the slogans “Friendship between China and North Korea” and “Joint Development.” The low-lying island, south of the Chinese city of Dandong, is currently used for farmland and a North Korean military installation. A smaller island called Wihwa is also part of the deal.

The Chinese are also building a new bridge to the islands that is eventually supposed to be extended to reach to the North Korean mainland.

UPDATE 10 (2011-6-10): Caijing, which is (according to the Wall Street Journal) China’s leading finance newspaper has just published a lengthy article (in Chinese) about North Korea and states at the beginning of the article the “urgent need for internal reforms to adapt to the trend of market forces”. Here is the article.

UPDATE 9 (2011-6-9): Xinhua reports on the ground breaking ceremony:

Officials from China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have reached a consensus to jointly develop two economic zones in the DPRK, according to a press release issued by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Thursday.

From Tuesday to Thursday, Chinese and DPRK officials convened in northeast China’s Liaoning and Jilin provinces for the second meeting of the Development Cooperation and Joint Steering Committee.

Their meeting concerned the development of the Rason Economic and Trade Zone and the Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone.

The joint development of the two economic zones in the DPRK will be “government-guided, enterprise-based and market-oriented,” according to the press release.

Both sides agreed to work together and give full play to their respective advantages in the development of the economic zones, the release said.

China and the DPRK have agreed to build the economic zones into a model of Sino-DPRK economic and trade cooperation and a platform to promote economic and trade cooperation with the rest of the world, the release said.

Both sides also held launching ceremonies for several cooperative projects during the meeting, according to the press release.

The meeting was jointly presided over by Chen Deming, Chinese Minister of Commerce, and Jang Song Taek, the administrative director of the Korean Workers’ Party.

The committee held its first meeting in the DPRK’s capital of Pyongyang last November.

UPDATE 8 (2011-6-9): The Choson Ilbo reports on the Hwanggumphyong opening ceremony:

The ceremony started at 10:40 a.m. and took half an hour. Huge balloons with messages like “Friendship between China and North Korea” and “Joint Development” floated in the air above while a military brass band played. Some 300-400 people attended, a stark contrast from the ground breaking for a new bridge connecting Sinuiju in North Korea to China’s Dandong across the Apnok (or Yalu) River at the end of last year, which lasted just 10 minutes with a few dozen regional officials present. AP’s Pyongyang correspondent was allowed to cover the event.

UPDATE 7 (2011-6-9): A reader notes int the comments that it is probably incorrect to refer to this development as a “Special Administrative Region” because we have yet to see if there is any new administrative apparatus which will control the new zone.  So until we see such a development I will refer to this as a “Special Economic Zone (SEZ)”.

UPDATE 6 (2011-6-7): Yonhap reports that Jang Song-thaek attended a groundbreaking ceremony on Hwanggumphyong today (Wednesday):

North Korea and China on Wednesday broke ground on a border island to develop it into an economic zone, spurring speculation that Pyongyang may embrace Chinese-style economic development to try to revive its faltering economy.

The groundbreaking ceremony came on the heels of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s weeklong trip to China in May to study the neighboring country’s spectacular economic development, his third trip to China in just over a year.

On Wednesday, some 1,000 people from North Korea and China, including Kim’s brother-in-law, Jang Song-thaek, and Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming, attended the ceremony on Hwanggumphyong Island in the Yalu River that separates the two countries.

Several dozen giant advertising balloons were floating in the air as a military brass band played festive songs, and hundreds of doves were released at the ceremony.

The messages on the balloons read “North Korea-China friendship and joint development” in a symbolic gesture for their commitment to the project.

The two sides also reportedly signed a deal on the joint development project, including lease terms on Hwanggumphyong. No details were immediately available.

UPDATE 5 (2011-6-7): KCNA announces (here and here) the establishment (and expansion) of the Special Administrative Region (SAR or SEZ):

(KCNA: 2011-6-6) DPRK Decides to Set Up Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone

The DPRK decided to set up the Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone in order to boost the DPRK-China friendship and expand and develop the external economic relations.

A decree of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly was promulgated on June 6 in this regard.

According to it, Hwanggumphyong-ri, Sindo County, Sangdan-ri, Hadan-ri and Taji-ri, Sinuiju City and Soho-ri, Uiju County of North Phyongan Province shall belong to the zone.

The sovereignty of the DPRK shall be exercised in the zone.

The development of the zone shall start from the Hwanggumphyong district.

and…

(KCNA: 2011-6-7) Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone to Be Set Up

The Japanese Tokyo Shimbun Tuesday released the following report titled “Close to setting up economic zone on DPRK-China border:”

The Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the DPRK Monday promulgated a decree on setting up the Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone in the border with China. It was reported that the sovereignty of the DPRK would be exercised in the zone and the development of the zone would start from the Hwanggumphyong district.

Both Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands are within the territory of the DPRK along the River Amnok flowing along the DPRK-China border. It was basically agreed to develop Hwanggumphyong by the joint efforts of the DPRK and China. A ground-breaking ceremony is expected to take place within one or two days.

The project for building the DPRK-China Amnokgang Bridge which started at the end of last year is making brisk headway on the river. It seems that a discussion on the above-said zone was held during the China visit by General Secretary Kim Jong Il in May and it is likely to put greater impetus to economic cooperation between the DPRK and China and development of the border area with the decision as an occasion.

The SPA Presidium of the DPRK, explaining the reason for setting up the economic zone, said it was to boost the traditional DPRK-China friendship and expand and develop external economic relations.

South Korean CBS released similar news on the same day.

In a separate note, it is nice to hear the construction on the second Yalu River bridge is “making brisk headway”.  The north Korean media has not reported on the bridge in some time.  The bridge does not run through any of the newly created Special Economic Zone.

UPDATE 4 (2011-6-5): According to the Donga Ilbo, the groundbreaking ceremony is supposed to take place tomorrow (Tuesday).  On Thursday a groundbreaking ceremony is scheduled for Rason.

UPDATE 3 (2011-5-30): The groundbreaking ceremony was cancelled.  It is unclear when development will begin. According to the Choson Ilbo,

There has been no official comment from China, but a ground-breaking ceremony for the development scheduled for Saturday has been cancelled, apparently because China had second thoughts. “Since last year, I’ve had business officials from other regions like Tianjin and Qingdao, asking me whether there’s any vacant office spaces for rent,” said a business owner in Dandong.

But people in Dandong have not lost all hope of potential development of the area. One Chinese businessman who has traded with North Korea since the 1990s, said, “Business projects with North Korea usually take a long time to materialize, and talk of developing Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa islands have been around for a long time, so I feel they will happen someday.”

Other major projects are already under way in Dandong. The Chinese city plans to build a new city in the Langtou area to house 200,000 people by 2020. A bank building and high-rise apartments have already sprung up in the area, which was a barren tract of land just three years ago. And a new bridge is being built linking Langtou with the North Korean border town of Ryongchon across the [Amnok] River.

UPDATE 2 (2011-5-10): Development of Hwanggumphyong Island is reported to begin this month (May 2011).

According to the AFP:

North Korea and China will start work on developing a river island on their border this month, a report said Tuesday, amid an international drive to coax Pyongyang back to nuclear disarmament talks.

The two countries plan to hold a groundbreaking ceremony on May 28 for development of the island on the Yalu River, the South’s Yonhap news agency said.

Pyongyang has reportedly worked out a special law to set up a free trade zone on the island, which is separated by a narrow waterway from the Chinese city of Dandong.

…

The two sides have agreed to turn the island into a base for logistics, tourism and manufacturing that would be linked to China’s industrial complex to be built in Dandong, Yonhap said.

There is still no sign that Wihwa Island is receiving any special development.

UPDATE 1 (2011-3-30): Huangjinbing Island (mentioned below) is the Chinese name of Hwanggumphyong Island (Hwanggumpyong, Hwangkupyong, 황금평: 39.961121°, 124.316044°). The Chinese recently built a fence around this island.

Using Google Earth (39.964363°, 124.288470°) we can see both before and after satellite images of the fence construction which separates the DPRK’s island territory from the PRC’s. Dates: 2009-10-2 (Left/Before), 2010-4-5 (Right/After)

According to the Telegraph:

Fences more than 13ft [3.962 m] high, topped with barbed wire, are now being erected along an eight-mile stretch of the Yalu river around the Chinese city of Dandong. This is a popular escape point for North Korea refugees seeking food or better lives, Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.

“It’s the first time such strong border fences are being erected here. Looks like it is related to the unstable situation in North Korea,” a resident said of the work which began last November but is ongoing.

Previously the border was only marked by a 10ft-high fence which “anybody could cross if they really wanted”, the resident added.

Fears for the stability of North Korea have been heightened in recent weeks with reports of a growing food crisis following the severest winter in 60 years and an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease that has hit the oxen that are still mainly used to plough the North’s fields.

This week, in a highly unusual step, foreign aid agencies based in Pyongyang issued a joint statement warning that 6 million North Koreans now need urgent food aid because crops of potatoes, wheat and barley have all failed.

As an aside, at least one report claims this island has been leased to China.

Read the full Telegraph story below:
China builds higher fences over fears of instability in North Korea
Telegraph
Peter Foster
3/30/2011

ORIGINAL POST (2010-2-25): In September 2002 the North Korean government announced the Siuiju Special Administrative Region/ Special Economic Zone.  It did not end well.  The idea of implementing a Sinuiju SAR/SEZ, however, has never faded away–though it has taken different forms.

Sunuiju Version 1: The initial vision of the city, under a Yang Bin administration, was the creation of a very liberal and independent territory which would supposedly be free of Pyongyang’s dictates in exchange for tax revenue.  The Hong Kong-style “Basic Law” can be found here.

Sinuiju Version 2: In March of 2007 the North Koreans decided to move the SAR/SEZ territory out of the Sinuiju city center on two Islands in the Tumen River:  Bidan and Wihwa.

Sinuiju Version 3: In August 2007 creation of a special zone had reportedly already begun, however, this time the project is located in the Sinuiju city center (not remote islands).

Sinuiju Version 4: In January 2009 the Yomiuri Shimbum reported that the SAR/SEZ had once again moved out to  Wihwa Island.

Today Adam Cathcart emailed me a report in the Huanqiu Shibao featuring the following statement by a PRC foreign ministry spokesman :

环球时报记者段聪聪报道 2月25日，中国外交部发言人秦刚在例行记者会上就中国企业有可能获准开发两个朝鲜岛屿的事情表态：“不要混淆联合国制裁和两国正常的经贸往来。” Global Times reporter Duan Congcong reports on Feb. 25: Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gang, at a press conference, stated [the Ministry’s] position on the situation of the possibility of Chinese enterprises obtaining permission to start business on two Korean islands : “Don’t confuse U.N. Sanctions with normal bilateral trade dealings.”

据报道，朝鲜为了吸引外国投资，决定将位于中朝边境临近辽宁丹东市的威化岛和黄金屏岛定为自由贸易区域，交由中国企业进行开发。两岛的投资规模分别为5亿和3亿美元。秦刚表示，不要混淆联合国制裁和两国之间正常的经贸往来与合作。对朝鲜实施制裁，联合国的有关决议有明确的规定，规定了制裁的项目。而报道中提到的 项目属于中朝之间正常的经贸往来，并不违反联合国规定. According to the report, North Korea is attracting foreign investment, and has decided to establish a free trade zone on the islands of  Weihua [威化岛] and Huangjinbing [黄金屏岛] in the Sino-Korean border area of Liaoning’s Dandong city.  The dimensions of the two islands’ total investment will total 500 and 300 million U.S. dollars, respectively.  Qin Gang stated that it wasn’t necessary to confuse UN sanctions with normal bilateral economic dealings and cooperation.  Regarding the implementation of sanctions on North Korea, the related United Nations resolutions are very clear in their stipulations of the project.  But, the report noted, projects referring to inclusion of normal bilateral trade between China and North Korea are not forbidden by the UN stipulations.

据报道，朝鲜政府高层就比邻中国丹东的边境地区建立特别经济区方案正在进一步细化过程当中。参与此次朝鲜岛屿开发的中国丹东华商海外投资公司将组团赴朝就具体合作意向进行最后敲定。 According to the report, high officials in North Korea’s government nieghboring China’s Dandong border area are currently moving in a detailed way with establishing this special economic zone.  Participating in the development of this North Korean islands are Dandong Huashang Overseas Investment Corp. which will organize and send a delegation to North Korea in order to cooperate and move forward with final resolution.

I will call this “Sinuiju SAR: Version 5.” Wihwa Island is back, but Bidan Island has been replaced by “Huangjinbing Island.”

Additional Information

1. The Dandong Huashang Overseas Investment Corp. web page is here. (again, h/t Adam)

2. China has also reportedly approved the creation of a trade zone on its side of the North Korean border.

According to the JoongAng Daily:

South Koreans doing business with North Korea, or across its border with China, are seeing opportunities dry up as Pyongyang gives all the good breaks to Chinese companies.

Yesterday, workers were seen getting ready for a ground-breaking ceremony at Hwanggumpyong, a joint industrial complex run by North Korea and China on an island in the Yalu River.

North Korea’s official news agency said the complex would further deepen economic ties between the two countries. The exact reverse is happening to South Korean businesspeople.

“South Korean firms and investors have pretty much let their businesses at the China-North Korea border go since last May,” said Choi, the owner of a restaurant in Dandong. Choi, 54, has been running his restaurant for a decade and, to him, the good times are over.

“When business was active between South and North Korea, there were about 1,000 South Korean businessmen working in Dandong, all doing work related to North Korea,” said Choi. “But now most of them have left.”

“Most of the manufacturing jobs done inside North Korea have been taken by Chinese investors and the South Koreans left here in Dandong are mostly contractors for Chinese firms,” Choi said.

After the attack on the warship Cheonan in March 2010, business ties between South and North Korea have run dry due to sanctions ordered by Seoul the following May.

“I invested millions of dollars into developing the underground natural resources in North Korea before last May,” said Park, 56, who was working from Hunchun in northeast China. “Now that the South Korean government has banned all North Korean goods from entering the South, I’m about to lose all my money.”

Chinese investors – including ethnic Koreans living in China – are grabbing the business opportunities forfeited by the Southerners.

“I run short of stock even if I charge 10 renminbi [$1.54] for an abalone I used to sell at 5 renminbi,” said Han, 70, an ethnic Korean in China who sells abalones caught in North Korea. The trade was formerly done by South Koreans.

“Doing business with Chinese customers is much better because I can earn more and in cash, too,” he said.

The South’s sanctions on North Korea have resulted in some other problems as well. Pollack caught in Russian waters have been denied being imported into South Korea because they were mistaken for North Korean pollack. In fact, the fish cannot be found in North Korea anymore due to global warming.

“It was a loss for me when the fish didn’t make it through customs after being mistaken for North Korean pollack,” said Lee, 51. “I export Russian pollack to South Korea after they are caught and processed in China.” Lee is involved in aquatic product processing in Hunchun.

Jo Dong-ho, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said, “North Korea is looking for an alternative by doing business with China after trade with the South halted. There is a need for some breathing space when it comes to inter-Korean trade.”

Read the full story here:
China capturing North’s business
JoongAng Daily
Chang Se-jeong
2011-6-8

According to Arirang News:

Trade between North Korea and China nearly doubled in the first quarter of this year compared to 2010.

China’s imports of North Korean goods, which were valued at around 401-million US dollars, increased 214-percent, while its exports to the North, worth about 570-million dollars, rose by only 59-percent year-on-year.

As China’s imports significantly increased overall during this period, its trade surplus with its communist neighbor shrank about 27 percent compared to last year.

The top items China imported from the North included anthracite, iron, and zinc alloys, mostly mining resources.

China’s import of anthracite in the first quarter surged about 1300-percent compared to the same time last year.

Meanwhile, North Korea imported items like crude oil, gasoline, wireless phones, and coal from its last remaining ally.

Korea’s YTN News Agency reports that North Korea’s import of mobile phones, which appear to be all old models, increased about 330-percent from a year earlier.

And North Korea’s import of gasoline during the first quarter of this year increased 120-percent compared to 2010.

Experts say that the increase in gasoline imports likely has to do with its intensified military training since its attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan and the shelling of the South’s Yeonpyeong Island last year.

Read the full story here:
China-N.Korea Trade Volume Doubles in First Quarter of 2011
Arirang News
2011-6-6