North Korean Economy Watch

According to Yonhap:

Trade between North Korea and China contracted 2.3 percent on-year in the first five months of 2013 mainly due to Pyongyang importing less from its neighbor, a report showed Tuesday.

The report by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) showed two-way trade at US$2.45 billion in the January-May period, with North Korea’s exports to China growing 6.5 percent on-year to $1.12 billion. The North’s imports from China, however, dropped 8.5 percent to $1.33 billion.

The trade association said the North shipped $613.6 million worth of coal, making it the top export commodity for the communist country, followed by such raw materials as iron and lead ores.

In exchange, the North bought $265 million worth of crude oil, a decrease of 5 percent from January-May of 2012. The country imported $52 million in large cargo-hauling vehicles, as well as flour and soybean oil from its neighbor.

KITA did not elaborate on the reason for the decrease in overall trade volume and the drop in crude oil imports from China.

Related to economic developments in the North, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report that food conditions in the isolationist country remain one of the most precarious in all of Asia.

In its 2012-2013 food security report, which inspected 22 countries in the region, the North came in at the bottom with Afghanistan and Yemen.

The findings, which are used as reference material for food aid provisions by Washington, claimed that while the North was able to produce 7.5 million tons of grain annually up until the early 1990s, this has since plunged to around 4.3 million tons in 2012.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea-China trade drops 2.3 pct: report
Yonhap
2013-7-2

According to the Wall Street Journal:

On a vast construction site outside this northeastern Chinese city, engineers are working around the clock on a project that could transform the economic—and geopolitical—dynamics of the region: a 223-mile, high-speed rail link to the North Korean border.

The $6.3 billion project is one of three planned high-speed railways designed to bring North Korea closer into China’s economic orbit, even as Beijing supports sanctions aimed at Pyongyang. China is also sinking millions of dollars into new highways and bridges in the area, and the first cross-border power cable.

China’s vision for closer economic integration with North Korea runs counter to a U.S. strategy aimed at piling pressure on Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear-weapons program and refrain from further threats.

(more…)

According to Yonhap:

The growth of North Korea’s exports and overall trade volume slowed down significantly last year, apparently due to international sanctions condemning its nuclear test and other provocations, Seoul’s trade promotion agency said Wednesday.

According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, better known as KOTRA, North Korea’s overall trade reached US$6.81 billion in 2012, growing 7.1 percent from a year earlier and reaching a record high since 1990 when such data began to be compiled.

The growth, however, marked a sharp slowdown from a 51.3 percent on-year hike in 2011.

“Such a significant slowdown of growth last year appears to have been caused by the fact that North Korea has only a limited number of export products and that sanctions by the international community continued,” KOTRA said in a press release.

The North’s overall exports gained 3.3 percent on-year to $2.88 billion with imports surging 10.2 percent to $3.93 billion.

Still, the North’s trade relations with its communist ally China strengthened with the countries’ bilateral trade reaching $6.01 billion, accounting for 88.3 percent of the North’s overall trade in 2012.

Trade with China has also slowed. According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s imports from China for this year registered its first drop in three years due apparently to China’s tightened grip on transactions with its ally under United Nations sanctions, Beijing’s customs data showed Wednesday.

The North brought in US$1.01 billion worth of Chinese goods during the January-April period, down 8.68 percent from a year earlier, according to China’s online customs data analyzed by Yonhap News Agency.

It was the first annual drop for the four-month period since 2010 when Customs-info, the online customs data provider, started to provide related information.

The North’s imports from China stood at $525.8 million for the same four-month period in 2010. It had posted two successive annual increases to reach $1.1 billion in 2012 before registering a fall this year, according to the data.

The on-year reduction this year can be attributable to China’s increased efforts to strictly apply punitive U. N. sanctions adopted to punish the North for its long-range rocket launch, believed to have been a test of its ballistic missile technology, and its third nuclear test, which occurred on Feb. 12.

Taking a step back from its previous stance to keep neutral about its ally, China joined punitive international moves by tightening its customs and immigration inspections toward the North.

The data, however, showed that the North’s exports to China grew 6 percent on-year to $842.8 million during the January-April period.

Read the full stories here:
Growth of N. Korean trade slows in 2012
Yonhap
2013-5-29

N. Korea’s imports from China drop amid tensions
Yonhap
2013-5-29

UPDATE 1 (2013-5-27): According to the Global Times (PR China):

Chinese agencies operating in Dandong, Northeast China’s Liaoning Province have been implicated in the seizures of Chinese fishing boats for ransom by armed North Koreans.

The Beijing Times quoted Zhang Dechang, whose boat was seized by North Koreans in May last year, as saying that he was given a cellphone number registered in Dandong and was demanded to pay a ransom to the cellphone owner. However, Zhang failed to reach the cellphone owner, and the number later was canceled.

The report said Zhang asked the boss of a Chinese agency in Dandong, which represents North Korea in handing out licenses for Chinese fishermen to fish in North Korean waters, for mediation but was turned down. He claimed a Chinese boat took part in the looting of his boat when the North Koreans seized it.

A North Korean patrol ship, which has hijacked several Chinese fishing boats, is said to be a retired Chinese ship and given to the North by a Chinese agency, the report said.

Yu Xuejun, whose boat was hijacked by North Koreans for two weeks this month, earlier told the Global Times that the kidnappers asked him to pay ransom to a bank account of a company in Dandong, but he failed to catch the name of the company.

The Guangzhou-based Nandu Daily quoted an unidentified fishing boat owner as saying that the Chinese agencies in Dandong are related to the company which is collecting the ransom.

There are three major agencies in Dandong representing North Korea. The fishing boats, which obtained licenses from the agencies, fly both Chinese and North Korean flags and can enter certain areas inside North Korean waters.

The Chinese boat owners, whose boats had been hijacked, insisted that their boats were operating in Chinese waters when they were captured.

Sun Caihui, whose boat was seized by North Koreans in May last year and released after the intervention of the Chinese government, told the Global Times Monday that local fishermen have been operating on the western side of 124 degrees east longitude for generations, which has long been regarded as the demarcation line of the sea border between China and North Korea.

“We aren’t going to take the risk of being seized by the North Koreans again,” he said, calling on the government to clarify the sea border with the North so as to address the concerns of fishermen.

However, there is no available official documentation on the sea demarcation between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Sun Chen, a professor from Shanghai Ocean University, said Monday that the Chinese fishery authority should strengthen law enforcement activities to protect the fishermen.

“Currently, we face shortages in personnel, equipment and spending of the fishery management department. The government should attach importance to the building of the law enforcement force,” she said.

ORIGINAL POST (2013-5-21): According to Bloomberg:

North Korea freed a Chinese fishing vessel and its crew after the boat’s owner posted updates on his microblog account saying that he’d been told to pay a 600,000-yuan ($97,800) ransom to win their release.

The ship and its crew, from the northern city of Dalian, were freed today, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing a Chinese consular officer in North Korea. The ship’s owner, Yu Xuejun, said on his Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700) microblog account today that he couldn’t come up with the cash and was “thankful to the Foreign Ministry for its diplomacy.”

…

China, which filed a formal complaint over the detention, is asking North Korea to investigate and “make a full explanation to us,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said today. No ransom was paid to secure the crew’s freedom, China National Radio reported today, without citing anyone.

…

“There is no territorial confrontation between China and North Korea,” the editorial said. “It’s more likely the North Korean military police are using the ambiguity of maritime borders to make a quick buck.”

Last year a North Korean ship seized three Chinese fishing and demanded 300,000 yuan to free each vessel.

Read the full story here:
North Korea Frees Chinese Fishing Boat After Ransom Report
Bloomberg
2013-5-21

According to Reuters:

Bilateral trade dropped more than 7 percent to $1.3 billion in January-March, with China’s imports from North Korea rising 2.5 percent to $590 million but exports down 13.8 percent to $720 million – excluding fuel, food or other Chinese aid. Annual trade is worth some $6 billion, a fraction of China’s trade with South Korea which last year topped $230 billion.

…

China also supplies virtually all of North Korea’s external energy needs – crude oil, diesel and jet fuel – much of it in the form of off-the-books aid.

While Chinese data showed no exports of crude oil to North Korea in February, deliveries resumed in March, with customs figures showing 106,000 metric tons of supply. China officially supplied 523,041 metric tons of crude oil last year.

The Ministry of Commerce appears to be delaying or possibly cancelling an internal tender to supply North Korea with diesel fuel, two oil trading sources said, while a person close to state-owned Sinochem Group said jet fuel flows were normal. China supplied North Korea with 42,251 metric tons of jet fuel last year, according to customs data, and 31,050 metric tons of diesel.

Another trading source said coal imports from North Korea – typically entering China through Dandong’s Donggang Port after coming down the Yalu River or up the coast – were not affected.

Many Chinese companies are also involved in mining in North Korea. A source at Wanxiang Resources, which has a copper mine in Hyesan in North Korea’s Ryanggang province, said there had been no orders from China to withdraw their workers, although North Korean staff had been asked to attend more political activities, which was hurting production.

Read more in the Wall Street Journal.

Read the full story here:
China steps up customs checks, but North Korea trade robust
Reuters
2013-4-30

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2013-4-25

After North Korea’s currency revaluation in 2009, North Korean currency is still unstable and North Korean markets near the DPRK-China border are reportedly filled with Chinese merchandise, with transactions being conducted mainly in Chinese yuan.

An online newspaper, the Daily NK, reported that markets in the city of Hyesan (Ryanggang Province) and surrounding areas are using Chinese yuan as the primary currency for transactions rather than local North Korean won.  Rice prices are standard indicators of inflation in North Korea and even rice was reported to be exchanged in yuan.  As the monetary value of domestic currency continues to fall, North Korea is experiencing hyperinflation and North Koreans are showing a preference for the more stable Chinese yuan over won.

With an exception of rice, vegetables, and seafood, manufactured goods including confectioneries, the daily necessities for sale in these markets are mostly from China.  As well, some South Korean items such as instant noodles, Choco Pies, and butane gas are sold openly in the markets.

Border areas have a higher rate of Chinese yuan usage than inland areas, as for years traders have been buying Chinese goods with Chinese yuan to sell in the domestic markets.  However, with the unstable domestic currency, more and more North Koreans have been using Chinese yuan over the last three years.  Some report goods bought with North Korean won must be converted to the CNY exchange rate.

As of mid-April, the exchange rate of 100 CNY to KPW was 130,000. However, Pyongsong and Pyongyang cities used mainly US dollars and local won in equal rates.

A video recording obtained by the Daily NK unveiled the landscape of the marketplace and nearby alley markets of  Hyesan and surrounding areas.  Items for sale include jackets, mufflers, gloves, coats and other winter clothing as well as cosmetics, perfumes, toothpaste, toothbrushes and other daily goods. Transactions were being made in Chinese yuan.

North Korean authorities are waging a crackdown against the use of the yuan in the markets but merchants continue to use yuan in secret.

The high number of Chinese goods in North Korean markets can be attributed to the failed production system of the people’s economy of North Korea, which began to tumble in the late 1990s. As the regime began to invest excessively in its military sector, production in the manufacturing sector declined.

Although North Korean products appear in the markets, most people prefer Chinese goods due to their better quality.

A recent article in the official state economics journal of North Korea, Kyongje Yongu (Journal of Economic Research), criticized the “trade companies for focusing on only one or two countries,” expressing concerns that, “the whole nation may experience political and economic pressure from trade companies that restrict foreign trade to only one country.”

Kim Jong Un has also expressed official disapproval against “import syndrome” of the people and regarded it as an obstacle hindering the development of North Korea’s light industry.

Although no specific country was named, it is believed that China makes up over 80 percent of North Korea’s total foreign trade. North Korea continues to show vigilance against its rising dependence on China.

Reuters offers a cautionary tale of investing in the DPRK:

Setting up a brewery in North Korea seemed like a good idea to Harry Kim and his Chinese friends two years ago. Everyone likes beer, even in one of the world’s most closed and least understood countries, they reckoned.

Kim and his partners even got the beer flowing after workers strapped equipment onto a truck in the Chinese border town of Tumen and drove it to the North Korean coastal city of Chongjin. Chinese engineers taught the locals how to brew. City officials loved the taste, he said.

But the small Chinese-North Korean venture ran aground within months after failing to get final approval from authorities in Pyongyang.

Kim’s experience is an illustration of both the challenge and the potential of doing business in North Korea, which has grabbed global attention in recent weeks with its threats to wage nuclear war on South Korea and the United States.

“It wasn’t rejected. We just waited. The central government didn’t come and say ‘no’, but the documents were just never issued and so we eventually gave up,” said Kim, a Chinese national of Korean descent living in Tumen in China’s northeastern Jilin province.

…

There is little public information on North Korea’s beer market but one thing seems clear – demand outstrips supply.

Troy Collings, a director at Young Pioneer Tours, a travel operator based in China which takes groups into North Korea and has organised brewery visits, said there were probably less than a dozen locally made beers available in the country.

In Pyongyang, two hotels concoct their own microbrews. The Rakwon department store creates its own eponymous beer, too, he said.

“They can’t produce enough for the domestic market,” said Collings.

The opportunity was clear – and reinforced for Kim when he saw the elite in Chongjin drinking a lot of Heineken and Corona.

So, in mid-2011, Kim and two friends joined up with a North Korean businessman to put the brewery plan in motion.

Approval from Chongjin city came easily, he said. The province, North Hamgyong, gave the green light too. And the first of three investments in equipment and supplies – the initial one worth about 200,000 yuan – was made.

Since North Korea has no system of credit and the risks of investing were high, Kim and his partners tied the beer project to seafood exports.

Before each investment was made, they were allowed to buy a cargo of North Korean seafood to sell in China. The first was about 50 tonnes of squid, he said.

…

It took about nine hours to drive from Tumen to Chongjin with the brewery equipment, including stops at customs.

The equipment was installed quickly and Chinese engineers showed the North Koreans how to brew. Soon, suds were flowing. The product was dubbed Wongang, or ‘river source’, beer.

On the first day of business the investors invited senior city and provincial leaders to the brewery for a sample. All approved, Kim said.

But the new brewery could not ramp up production without authorisation from Pyongyang, which never came despite months of waiting. There was never a response and the investors never got an explanation.

“If you push too hard it could raise suspicions,” Kim said.

It was a pity, because the North Koreans were good workers, he said, citing how the investors overcame the frequent power cuts which made it hard to use a computer to monitor the brewing process.

Instead, the investors stationed North Korean workers at each of the pressure gauges on the brewing equipment in 12-hour shifts. The workers were told if the dial reached a certain level they should turn a knob to let off pressure.

“They got chairs and sat there looking at the gauges, not sleeping all night, one person at each position,” said Kim.

Thanks to the squid hedge, the Chinese investors basically broke even. Kim now runs his restaurant in the space where the brewing equipment was stored before it was hauled to Chongjin.

Some day Pyongyang may give the green light, Kim says, but he is not holding his breath.

“As I was leaving they said ‘It’s not that we don’t want to do it, and it’s not that our senior leaders or the central government don’t want to do it, but we just don’t have practical experience with this kind of thing’.”

UPDATE: Simon notes in the comments:

There are not about a dozen locally brewed beers in the DPRK, there are literally dozens, if not many more. A great many restaurants and bars brew their own beer. The number quoted in the article isn’t close to the reality that small brewing set-ups are quite widespread in Pyongyang and other cities too.

Read the full story here:
Nuclear threats to squid hedges: it’s hard to get a beer in N.Korea
Reuters
John Ruwitch
2013-4-14

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported an unusually massive amount of silver from China in January, possibly in relation to leader Kim Jong-un’s birthday that month, sources and China’s customs office said Thursday.

Data from China’s customs office showed that North Korea imported 661.71 kilograms of Chinese silver for US$653,128 in January.

The monthly import is unusually enormous given that the North took in only $77,593 worth of precious metal and other jewels for the whole of 2012. The corresponding amount for 2011 was $57,000.

Before January this year, the North had hardly spent more than $10,000 on monthly imports of such goods, according to the data.

Given the leader’s birthday on Jan. 8, North Korea watchers said the massive amount of imported silver may have been used to produce silverware souvenirs to celebrate the leader’s birthday.

“It’s difficult to assume the exact purpose of the silver imports,” a source said. Given that late leader Kim Jong-il used to bring in foreign brand luxury sedans and expensive watches to treat the country’s top echelon on major holidays, the bulk of silver imported in January may have been used for similar purposes, the source said.

Backing this assumption, the customs data also showed that the North imported an unusually large amount of costume jewelry worth $10,447 in the same month.

A reader points out this Daily NK story hypothesizing that the silver could have been used in batteries:

As such, there are suspicions that the recent North Korean decision to import more than 600kg of silver through China was done to facilitate the production of batteries for submersible production.

A North Korean military source told Daily NK on the 4th, “The [North Korean] Navy has been producing submersibles at every shipyard on their east and west coasts ever since the attack on the Cheonan in 2010.”

According to the inside source, prior to the Cheonan sinking such vessels were produced at one shipyard, the disguised ‘Bongdae Boiler Factory’ in Sinpo, South Hamkyung Province, at a rate of five per year. However, following the sinking of the Cheonan that rate went up four times to 16 per year, as the vessels started being produced across multiple shipyards including Yongampo, Chongjin and Rajin.

The source explained, “The reason why the North Korean authorities are increasing production of this kind of submersible that can fire torpedoes is to maximize their underwater attack capacity. The subs can take 12 to 15 soldiers yet still sink destroyers weighing thousands of tons with their twin torpedoes.”

“The engines noise on the submersibles is very quiet, making them able to approach their targets underwater in secret, while it is impossible to trace crimes such as the Cheonan incident,” the source went on, adding that during North Korean military training exercises they also emphasize the essential nature of the subs.

The rising production is pushing up demand for batteries, the source then went on to add, saying that this required the bulk production of both silver and zinc. “All the silver produced in North Korea is supplied to the shipyards,” he claimed.

The source admitted to being confused, therefore, at North Korea’s recent decision to import 660kg of silver from China, declaring, “There is lots of silver being produced in North Korea, so it’s hard to say why they are importing it from China…I suppose it may have been just that more batteries were being produced so they needed more silver.”

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea imports massive amount of Chinese silver in Jan.: data
Yonhap
2013-3-28

NK Producing More Silvery Subs
Daily NK
2013-4-5

Pictured Above (Google Earth): The Namyang (DPRK) – Tumen (PRC) rail and bridge crossings. I suspect that this is the specific area that will see renovation

According to the Global Times:

The government of northeast China’s Jilin Province announced Tuesday plans to upgrade railways links to neighboring North Korea, aiming to boost cross-border economic and trade ties.

…

The China Tumen-North Korea Rajin Railway and China Tumen-North Korea Chongjin Railway will be upgraded under the Jilin government plan. A special highway passenger line linking Tumen to North Korea is also set to be opened in coming years.

The plan aims to improve the industrial cooperation between China and North Korea’s Rason and push the development of the Tumen Korean Industrial Park to a higher level.

Jin Qiangyi, director of the Asia Research Center of Yanbian University, told the Global Times that the industrial cooperation between China and North Korea has been going on for many years and does not breach international sanctions against Pyongyang.

Such cooperation could improve employment in border areas of both countries and contribute to development and stability in the area amid heightening tensions, said Jin.

…

Read the full story here:
China-North Korea railway links to undergo upgrade
Global Times
2013-3-27

Reuters reports on Chinese oil exports to the DPRK:

China did not export any crude oil to North Korea in February, customs data showed on Thursday, marking the first absence of deliveries since the same month in 2012.

Crude oil is the largest commodity by value that is supplied to North Korea under Beijing’s aid programme. It was not immediately clear if the lack of supply represented a unilateral action by China to punish North Korea for its nuclear test on Feb. 12.

Customs data showed the last time China missed monthly supply shipments was in February 2012. There were also no exports in February 2011.

…

Beijing normally supplies between 30,000 to 50,000 tonnes of crude oil to North Korea every month (222,000 to 370,000 barrels). Exports in 2012 totalled 523,041 tonnes, China General Administration of Customs data shows.

At $100 per barrel, China’s annual crude oil supplies last year would have been worth about $380 million.

Officials at the Ministry of Commerce were either not aware of the customs figures or declined comment. The ministry is a key agency that oversees the aid programme, which includes supplying commodities such as crude oil and diesel fuel.

Oil trading officials with knowledge of China’s oil aid to North Korea told Reuters last week that the ministry had some internal discussions about how to respond following Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test.

One of them said there may be “some kind of curb” in supplies but declined to elaborate.

The customs data showed a small quantity of diesel fuel flowed to North Korea in February amounting to about 4,000 tonnes (31,200 barrels). For the whole of 2012 China supplied 31,050 tonnes of diesel and 56,093 tonnes of gasoline to North Korea, customs data shows.

Prior to 2011, China suspended crude sales to North Korea in early 2007 and in September 2006, which also coincided with a nuclear test in October that year.

Read the full story here:
China did not export any crude in Feb to N.Korea (CORRECTED)
Reuters
Chen Aizhu
2013-3-21