UNFAO on DPRK food supply outlook

On February 3, 2015, the UNFAO recently published the DPRK “Outlook for Food Supply and Demand 2014/15“.

Here are the highlights:

1. After increasing markedly for three consecutive years, food production remained stagnant in 2014 with the aggregate output put at 5.94 million tonnes (including cereals, soybeans and potatoes in cereal equivalent). This figure comprises the official estimate of the 2014 main harvest and forecast for the 2015 early crops from cooperative farms, as well as FAO projections of production from sloping land and household gardens.

2. Paddy production dropped by about 10 percent due to reduced irrigation water availability, following low precipitation in the winter and dry spells during the 2014 main season. However, this decline was compensated by a significant increase in maize output, as a result of mass mobilization of people to water maize plants.

3. Production of the 2014/15 early season potatoes and minor wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from next June, is forecast to fall considerably.

4. The total utilization needs for the 2014/15 marketing year (November/October) are set by FAO at 5.49 million tonnes of cereal equivalent and the cereal import requirement is estimated at 407 000 tonnes. The Government is expected to import 300 000 tonnes of cereals, leaving an uncovered deficit of 107 000 tonnes for the current marketing year. This gap is larger than in 2013/14 partly as a result of revised post-harvest losses.

5. With a stagnant harvest in 2014, the food security situation in 2014/15 is likely to remain similar to that of the previous marketing year, with most households estimated to have borderline and poor food consumption rates.

The report listed these statistics that I thought were worth highlighting:

The marginal increase (0.3  percent) in the 2014/15 food production follows three consecutive years of strong growth at 4.4 percent in 2011/12, 8.7 percent in 2012/13 and 3.5 percent in 2013/14. However, at the forecast level, production remains above the past five-years average.

Andrei Lankov takes an optimistic view of this report in his article for Radio Free Asia and in the Carnegie Moscow Center. He credits implementation of the 6.28 Measures.

Marcus Noland commented on technical aspects of the report (such as the fact that the assessment was made without direct access to the country).

Scott Snyder commented on some of the political economy around the reports findings in Forbes. He asks why the UNFAO was not allowed into the DPRK, and notes that Russia has become the DPRK’s largest food donor.

The Daily NK has also noted the stability of food prices in late 2014 and early 2015.

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