Archive for January, 2011

Worker’s Party revises charter

Saturday, January 22nd, 2011

According to Voice of America:

North Korea has revised the charter of its only political party, apparently to ensure a smooth transition of power from father to son in the reclusive communist state.

VOA correspondent Steve Herman has obtained a copy of the document, which has not been made public in or outside North Korea.

It is worth pointing out that although the Worker’s Party is the only one that matters, technically it is not the only political party in North Korea. There is also the Korean Social Democratic Party and the Chondoist Party.

Here is a PDF of the new charter.  I am afraid th my Korean is not that good and I do not have a copy of the former charter. If anyone can do or find a comparison, I would like to see it.

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Hankyoreh, Choson Ilbo, and Yonhap point to tough times at Kaesong Zone

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Image from the Hankyoreh: The left graph shows the number of South Korean tenant companies operating at Kaesong Industrial Complex. 122 companies are operating normally, 77 companies are not currently operating, and 16 have halted operations. The right graph shows the total number of workers: above, the number of North Korean workers and below, the number of South Korean workers.

According to the Hankyoreh:

… [Companies in the Kaesong Zone]  complained that they have lost hundreds of millions of Won (hundreds of thousands of dollars) with the suspension of factory construction due to administration measures forbidding new investment. They also said that the situation is growing bleaker by the day, with veteran employees quitting as the numbers of resident personnel at the complex drops due to concerns about personal safety. Despite all of this, they suffer without a word of formal complaint out of fears that they might draw the anger of North Korean and South Korean authorities.

In its May 24 measures last year, the Lee administration declared a suspension to trade and exchanges with North Korea in response to the sinking of the Cheonan. At the complex, only existing facilities were allowed to operate, while the resident workforce was halved to 500 people and the introduction of additional equipment was prohibited. Sixteen companies that were in the process of building new factories suffered a direct hit from these measures. At present, a total of 122 small and medium companies run factories in the complex.

Company “A,” a garment company that invested 5 million Won ($4,493) in inter-Korean economic cooperation funding to build a sewing factory, but were forced to suspended construction with approximately 90 percent of the process complete.

“Only the exterior and interior remain,” said the president of the company. “We could not bring in factory equipment, so we just gave up.”

The Export-Import Bank of Korea (EXIM) only stood surety for 90 percent of the loan, so Company A faces the immediate burden of principal and interest repayments in the hundreds of millions of Won. It also has to pay 16 million Won per year in interest on the EXIM-guaranteed loan until compensation money comes from the government.

The company’s president said, “We borrowed the money because they said to do an inter-Korean economic cooperation project, and then they just cause a loss by suspending exchange. Is the administration playing interest games with South Koreans?”

To date, a total of 1.26 trillion Won ($1.1 billion) has been invested in the complex, the bulk of which is facility investment paid by tenant companies, amounting to 730 billion Won.

Company “B,” another garment company, originally had seven South Korean employees working with 330 North Korean workers. But following the order from Seoul to halve the number of resident employees, there are now just three South Korean employees left. Two employees left the company. “The employees who left were heads of household in their forties who had worked with us for over a decade,” the president sighed. “They had a difficult time getting up at 6 in the morning for the 70 to 80 kilometer commute, and the government actually ended up fanning anxieties with its talk about ‘protecting employee safety,’ so their family members dissuaded them from working at the complex.”

Hiring new employees is not an option. In some cases, interviews were held and start dates were set before the new recruits abandoned their plans after the Yeonpyeong Island shelling occurred two months ago. Company B, which has its head office in Seoul, is in a slightly better position. Employees at businesses in Daegu, Gwangju, and Busan, for whom commuting is impossible, are forced to stay at motels in Munsan, Gyeonggi Province.

“They emptied out a perfectly good dormitory in the Kaesong complex, and employees have been wasting time, money, and strength for months now,” said the president of Company “C.” “It stands to reason that the departure rate is increasing.”

The president of Company “D” stated emphatically that there is no physical risk at the complex. In fact, the president said, North Korean authorities have added more productive labor on site since the Cheonan sinking and the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island. The 45,332 North Korean workers as of November 2010 represented an increase of a full 2,771 over the 42,561 working in 2009. The president of Company D stressed that the government must increase the number of resident personnel if the physical safety of South Korean employees is to be guarded.

“If it is impossible to guarantee physical safety, they should not be leaving a single person at the Kaesong complex,” the president said. “Does it make any sense to say that 500 people is okay, but 1,000 is not?”

Some buyers have also fallen away because of anxieties. In late 2010, garment company “E” lost a buyer that had previously been purchasing 70 percent of its production output. “They got worried when it became difficult to bring in raw materials due to the sanctions against North Korea, and finally they halted transactions, saying that they thought the government had washed its hands of the Kaesong complex,” the president of Company E said. “Even if we suspend operations because there is no work to do, we still have to pay the workers’ wages, so the deficit is increasing by the day.”

With the decreased South Korean presence, six commercial facilities within the complex have also closed down, including a supermarket, restaurant, and singing room at “Songak Plaza.”

“If you look at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex Support Act, which the National Assembly passed unanimously, the government is to provide support and guarantees so that we can conduct business freely, like companies do in any other region,” said the president of Company F. “We are on the brink of withering away because of this idea of restricting property rights and company activities for administrative expedience, and through a minister’s order rather than any law.”

While they have been driven to the brink, the company presidents are adamantly opposed to closure of the complex. The president of Company G explained, “At first, things were rocky because of cultural and ideological differences, but now the North Korean workers understand the companies. They have realized by themselves why we need to meet the delivery deadline, why we need to improve quality, why we need to make so much. The Kaesong complex is performing the role of reducing the costs of reunification by restoring homogeneity between North Korea and South Korea.”

The president of Company H said, “The possibility of war is also being checked by the presence of North Korean and South Korean workers in the complex.”

“For the sake of peace and shared prosperity, we need to develop [the complex] into a special economic zone of peace where North Korea and South Korea can communicate,” the president added.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

Six of nine commercial [leisure] facilities in the joint Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex have closed, it emerged on Tuesday.

According to the Unification Ministry, a supermarket, a beer hall, a karaoke and a billiard hall in the Songak Plaza, the industrial park hotel operated by Hyundai Asan, closed on Dec. 1, right after North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. Already in February a massage parlor closed, and in August a Japanese restaurant.

Only a duty-free shop and Korean and Chinese restaurants managed directly by Hyundai Asan stay open. A staffer at the industrial park said the reason is that the number of South Korean staffers in the industrial park, who were the main customers of the facilities, has dropped sharply.

There were some 1,200 to 1,500 South Koreans at the industrial park until the North’s sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan in March and its shelling of Yeonpyeong in November, but the number dropped to about 500 recently.

According to Yonhap:

Production at an inter-Korean industrial park dropped 15 percent in November last year when the North bombarded a South Korean island, raising bilateral tensions to the highest level in years, the Unification Ministry said Sunday.

The fall, however, contrasted with an increase in the number of North Korean workers at the Kaesong industrial park, located just north of the heavily armed inter-Korean border, the ministry said on its Web site.

Over 45,000 North Koreans were working as of November for more than 120 South Korean firms at the complex, the ministry said, adding that they produced US$25.1 million worth of products that month, compared to $29.4 million in October.

The factory park is considered the last remaining symbol of reconciliation between the two Koreas that remain divided by a heavily armed border after the Korean War ended in a truce in 1953.

After North Korea shelled the western South Korean island of Yeonpyeong on Nov. 23, killing four people, Seoul restricted the number of South Korean workers allowed to stay overnight in Kaesong.

The measure, which remains in place, led business managers to complain of difficulties in production. South Korea maintains it will continue to support manufacturing activities at the Kaesong industrial park despite the North Korean provocation.

Since May when a multinational investigation led by Seoul found the North responsible for the sinking of a South Korean warship earlier that year, South Korea has suspended all cross-border trade with North Korea.

Read the full stories here:
Kaesong companies on the brink as sanctions continue
Hankyoreh
Jung Eun-joo
1/19/2011

Leisure Facilities at Kaesong Close Down
Choson Ilbo
1/19/2011

Output at inter-Korean factory park falls amid tension
Yonhap
1/23/2011

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South Korean companies under investigation for DPRK imports

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

According ot Yonhap:

South Korea is investigating about 10 companies accused of importing North Korean merchandise in violation of a ban that came into effect last year over the sinking of a warship, an official said Wednesday.

South Korea suspended all inter-Korean trade in May last year when a multinational investigation found North Korea responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan earlier that year.

Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said in a briefing in Seoul that the authorities are questioning the companies on suspicion of violating the ban by importing marine products, mushrooms and other items from North Korea via China.

The companies claimed that they had thought the products were from China. Lee said the government plans to step up its crackdown on imports from North Korea starting next month in an effort to reinforce the ban.

Read the full story here:
Companies under probe for importing N. Korean products: official
Yonhap
1/19/2010

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DPRK military spending estimated at US$8.7b, but rumors of problems grow

Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

According to the Korea Herald (via Yonhap):

North Korea’s actual military spending is believed to be about 15 times the announced amount in 2009 as the communist regime continues to build up its military capacity despite the country’s moribund economy, a South Korean defense research institute said Tuesday.

The North said it spent US$570 million on its military in 2009, but the real expenditure, calculated on an exchange rate based on purchasing power parity terms, was $8.77 billion, the state-run Korea Institute of Defense Analyses (KIDA) said in a report.

“In spite of its economy shrinking since the mid-2000s, North Korea has gradually increased its military spending,” the report said.

North Korea maintains the world’s fifth-largest army with an active duty military force of 1.19 million, compared to about 655,000 in the South.

According to figures released by North Korea, its military spending rose to $570 million in 2009 from $540 million in 2008, $510 million in 2007 and $470 million in 2006, the KIDA said.

As of 2009, North Korea’s gross national income stood at 28.6 trillion won ($25 billion), compared with the South’s 1,068 trillion won, the KIDA said.

Despite this chunk of change, rumors are leaking into the media that the DPRK military is suffering some sever problems:

1. People ordered to donate food to the military

2. Shortage of clothing provisions

3. Shortage of heating and increased propaganda training.

The usual caveats apply.

(h/t Joshua)

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s actual military spending estimated at US$8.77 bln in 2009
Korea Herald
1/18/2011

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Did Iran pay DPRK for arms via Seoul bank branch?

Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

The Choson Ilbo reports:

The [Wikileaks] cables say that North Korea received the arms payments through the Seoul branch of Iran’s Bank Mellat and that the U.S. government urged the South Korean government to investigate the matter. According to a cable dated March 24, 2008, a company in Iran called Hong Kong Electronics wired $2.5 million in three separate payments from Parsian Bank in Iran to the Seoul branch of Bank Mellat in November of 2007. Hong Kong Electronics is a paper company owned by North Korea’s Tanchon Commercial Bank. The money was wired entirely in euros, and $1.5 million worth of the payment was then wired to accounts in China and Russia.

Following a U.S. request to investigate, the South Korean government probed the Bank Mellat branch in December 2008 but did not take any punitive measures. Washington then demanded that the branch’s assets be frozen, according to a cable dated May 12, 2009.

The Iranians deny the accusations.  According to the Joongang Ilbo:

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast rejected allegations that Iran transferred a large sum of money via the Seoul branch of Iran’s Bank Mellat to buy North Korean arms.

In an exclusive interview with the JoongAng Ilbo on Friday at the Iranian Embassy in Seoul, Mehmanparast stressed that Bank Mellat’s Seoul office ran its business “under the supervision of South Korean financial authorities.”

Iran’s new ambassador to South Korea, Ahmad Masoumifar, sat in on the interview.

Mehmanparast was in Seoul with seven Iranian journalists to improve relations with the Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

The South Korean government in September slapped tough sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, with penalties including the suspension of virtually all financial activities at the Seoul branch of Iran’s Bank Mellat.

The South Korean government said its actions complied with United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Q. Cables released by WikiLeaks suggested that North Korea likely received payment for weapons sold to Iran through Bank Mellat’s Seoul Branch.

A. I think there’s someone behind the allegations in regard to Wikileaks’ information on Iran. Bank Mellat operates abiding South Korean law. There’s nothing wrong with the bank. We do maintain diplomatic ties with the North Korean government. But Iran doesn’t damage (diplomatic) relations with one country for the sake of relations with another country.

Q. What about allegations that Iran and North Korea are cooperating on nuclear technology?

A. Iran and North Korea aren’t in a military alliance. Frankly speaking, when it comes to nuclear weapons, Iran doesn’t need other countries’ assistance.

Iran’s young scientists are in the process of successfully developing technology to use nuclear power in a peaceful manner.

Q. What’s Iran’s official position on North Korea’s attacks on the South Korean warship Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island?

A. It was heartbreaking when I heard the news about the Yeonpyeong attack. I hope peace is maintained in Asia. I want to again stress peace through dialogue.

Q. Iran is an oil rich country. Why does it need nuclear power?

A. The Western media also questions why Iran needs nuclear power. But when you look at the world’s latest economic trends, nuclear power is (increasingly important) when used in a peaceful way. Even the United Arab Emirates began nuclear cooperation with the South Korean government.

Crude oil will be depleted in the future. Nuclear power is an answer to that, and it’s necessary for environmental reasons, too.

Q. Former Iranian Ambassador to Korea Mohammad Reza Bakhtiari said in a previous interview with our paper that Iran won’t sit back and watch if the South Korean government joins international sanctions against Iran.

A. That’s an uncomfortable question to answer. South Korea and Iran have lots in common as Asian nations. I hope for South Korean companies’ prosperity in Iran and I also hope for the success of Iranian companies in South Korea.

I hope short-term political pressures won’t hurt our bilateral relationship.

Read the full stories here:
N.Korean Arms Payments ‘Passed Through Seoul’
Choson Ilbo
1/18/2011

‘Bank Mellat didn’t pay for arms from North Korea’
Joongang Ilbo
Chun Su-jin
1/24/2011

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The DPRK’s new 6.15 Joint Resolution poster

Monday, January 17th, 2011

According to Daily NK:

The North Korean media has released a poster emphasizing the value of the June 15th North-South Joint Declaration. Of particular interest is the appearance on it of three intellectuals carrying a blue flag bearing the words “North-South Joint Declaration”.

The appearance of blue on a North Korean poster, as opposed to red, is very unusual. In North Korea, blue is reserved in propaganda circles as a symbol of autonomy and peace. Therefore, the poster can be said to represent North Korea’s most recent calls for dialogue, independent reunification and the establishment of a peace system on the Korean Peninsula.

Uriminzokkiri, the propaganda website run by North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland released the poster today under the title, “The North-South Joint Declaration is an unchangeable milestone for national prosperity and a banner of independent unification that must be implemented by the whole nation!”

Looking in more detail, each of the three intellectuals on the poster is bearing a book with the title of one of reunification principles (from top): the July 7th 1972 “Three Grand Principles for the Unification of the Fatherland”; July 4th 1993 “Ten Basic Principles of People’s Unity for the Unification of the Fatherland”; and October 1980 “Founding Plan for the Democratic Federal Republic of Korea”,

The three lie at the core of past “plans for unification” put forward by North Korea. Pyongyang is currently pressing for a dialogue with the South both at home and abroad by emphasizing its past efforts to achieve unification. Ultimately, therefore, the poster represents part of North Korea’s basic effort to present itself as the man of peace on the Korean Peninsula.

In a phone interview with The Daily NK, Cheong Seong Chang of Sejong Research Institute agreed, “It is rare for North Korea to use blue in posters and suchlike,” adding, “It was written to water down concerns by saying, ‘this is not to achieve a Communist takeover’.”

Cheong added, “It could have been deliberately written from the perspective of efforts to undermine our sense of vigilance.”

Kim Sun Cheol, who arrived in South Korea in 2009 after a long spell working in propaganda and agitation for the Chosun Workers’ Party said, “In North Korea, blue is called a symbol of autonomy and peace. However, this is the first time it has appeared on an official poster.”

“The appearance of a blue flag on this poster is not just for South Korea’s benefit, it seems to be to present the ‘man of peace’ image to international society as well,” Kim added.

Read the full story here:
North Korea Embraces Blue of Peace
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
1/17/2011

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DPRK, NGO to film Paek Son Haeng film

Monday, January 17th, 2011

Pictured above: Paek Son Haeng Memorial Hall, Pyongyang (Google Earth)

According to the Daily NK:

North Korea has apparently agreed to accept foreign funding to produce a movie which shows Christians in a positive light. It will be the first movie made in North Korea to show the life story of a Christian.

An activist working in New Zealand for “Team and Team International”, a South Korean NGO working on international disaster relief, reported today, “A North Korean movie import-export company (Chosun Movie Company) has decided to produce a movie, ‘Paek Sun Haeng’, with the support of an organization from New Zealand,” and added, “They are at the last stage of working on the scenario and plan to start filming this coming September.” A budget production, it will cost a reported $1.5 million.

The activist said that the two sides have agreed to show the movie in movie theaters across the country and on Chosun Central TV. The purpose behind the investment is apparently to depict the positive side of Christianity and Christians to the North Korean people.

He explained, “Based on the idea that the figure, Baek Sun Haeng, has been defined as a good capitalist in North Korea, the organization has been negotiating production of a movie about her with North Korea since 2008.” Additionally, he said “They will describe fully the image of Baek as a philanthropist as well as a Christian in the movie.”

The scenario was reportedly written by the head of Chosun Movie Company, Choi Hyuk Woo, but there has been conflict over the degree of Christian content.

The source explained, “Problems when the North Koreans tried to change one line or scene have not been small.” However, “They were able to persuade the North Korean staff by sticking stubbornly to the fact that it would have been impossible to invest in the movie without Christian content.”

North Korea’s bad situation vis a vis foreign currency may have influenced the North’s decision-making, the source agreed, saying, “I am aware that North Korea’s internal capital situation is rather difficult. That economic difficulty may have influenced this contract somewhat.”

Chosun Movie Company oversees the export and import of movies under the Culture and Art Department of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, which is within the Central Committee of the Party.

The activist emphasized, “Aid activities for North Korea should give dreams and hope for new things to the North Korean people through diverse cultural approaches beyond food or essential aid.”

The movie’s main character, Baek Sun Haeng (1848-1933) is a well-known philanthropist in North Korea who has been mentioned in North Korean textbooks, in Kim Il Sung’s memoirs and elsewhere.

After her husband died when she was 16 years old, she is said to have accumulated wealth relentlessly. After that, she built both “Baek Sun Bridge” across the Daedong River and a three-story public meeting hall in Pyongyang. She also donated real-estate for Pyongyang Gwangsun School and Changdeok School.

Baek, as the deaconess of a church, also contributed to the education of Korean Christians by donating capital and land for Pyongyang Presbyterian Church School, which was built by Rev. Samuel Austin Moffett, the then-reverend at the First Church of Pyongyang, and Soongsil School, the forerunner to Soongsil University in Seoul, which was established by Dr. W. M. Baird, an American missionary, in Pyongyang on October 10th, 1887.

Additionally, she dedicated all of her property to an organization dedicated to the relief of poverty in 1925, so the Japanese government general tried to present her with a commendation, but she refused it. Therefore, she has been praised highly as a “people’s capitalist” in North Korea.

In 2006, the North Korea media reported that an existing monument to Baek had been restored and moved into “Baek Sun Haeng Memorial Hall” in Pyongyang on the instructions of Kim Jong Il.

Read the full story here:
Christian Movie Being Shot inside North Korea
Daily NK
1/17/2011

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Marcus Noland on NK’s refugees and economy

Sunday, January 16th, 2011

Evan Ramstad at the Wall Street Journal: Korea Real Time interviews Marcus Noland:

Only a handful of outside economists spend the enormous time required to delve into the mysteries of North Korea.

Marcus Noland is one of them. With his research and writing partner Stephen Haggard, Mr. Noland has written several books about the North, including a definitive study on the famine that gripped the country from the mid- to late-1990s and resulted in the death of at least 1 million people and perhaps upwards of 2 million.

In a new book published this week, called Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea, Messrs. Noland and Haggard produce the results of interviews they and their researchers conducted with more than 1,600 North Koreans who fled the country. The interviews took place from 2004 to 2008 and involved people who left North Korea as early as 1991.

The book documents the remarkable changes inside the North through the eyes of people who lived through them. Of course, it’s a group that holds negative views of North Korea. But the economists do their best to take that into account.

Mr. Noland, who is based at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, discussed the book with us. Here’s an excerpt of the interview:

WSJ: Most books and studies on North Korea by people outside the country are focused on the nuclear weapons issue and the geopolitics around that. Why have you focused on refugees and the economy?

Mr. Noland: An understudied aspect of the North Korea story, we believe, is the really quite dramatic internal changes that have been going on in North Korea over the last 10 to 20 years. North Korea poses an analytical challenge in that access is limited and the conventional ways that one could go studying a country aren’t available. In this context, the diaspora of refugees leaving the country is an important source of information.

The refugees themselves constitute a first-order crisis. Most of these people, in a clinical setting, would probably be diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. Their mental health issues appear to be related not only to the difficult circumstances they faced in China but their experiences in North Korea.

WSJ: What is the cause of those stresses?

Mr. Noland: Specifically the loss of family members and family separations associated with the famine. The sense among many of them that they were abandoned in their moment of greatest need. The feeling that they were not given access to international humanitarian aid, which many of them believe was diverted to the military. And the experience of many of them of having been arrested and incarcerated in North Korea’s vast and sprawling penal system.

So the refugees themselves are an issue. They also provide us a window into North Korea.

WSJ: What did you learn from them?

Mr. Noland: Our book addresses three broad issues, which they illuminate.

The first is the underlying economic changes in the country. What we find is the economy has essentially marketized over the last 15 years or so, not as any kind of planned reform but rather as a function of state failure. What is extraordinary is the degree of marketization that the refugees portray when describing their daily lives. They describe a situation in which doing business or engaging in corrupt or illegal activities is increasingly seen as the way to get ahead in North Korea. And positions in the state or the party are still highly desired and seen as a way to get ahead, but not out of patriotism because these positions increasingly provide a platform for extortion of the general population.

Which brings us to the second big theme of the book and that is the criminalization of economic activity and the use of this vast penal system not only for its traditional use as a tool of political intimidation but for economic extortion. What we find is that changes in the North Korean legal code have criminalized vast areas of economic life, the sort of economic life that real people actually lead. In their daily lives, most if not all of North Korea’s non-elites run afoul of some of these statutes, which in effects makes everyone a criminal.

The fact that everyone is running afoul of some statute is combined with the fact that the police are given extraordinary discretion in who they arrest and who they incarcerate and for what period of time. We find that the North Korean penal system has four components. The worst and best known are the long-term political prisons, the North Korean gulag that was set up by Soviet advisors. There’s also a set of institutions that are effectively felony prisons, where you put the murderers and the rapists. Then there are a set of institutions that correspond to misdemeanor jails in other societies. What has developed since the famine period of the 1990s is a fourth set of institutions that have been codified. Those primarily house people who have made economic crimes, such as hiring labor for money or selling things in the market that you’re not supposed to be selling. We go through the enormous expansion of articles in the North Korean legal code to cover these crimes, such as illegally operating a restaurant.

This is a fantastic instrument for extortion. It means if you were engaging in entrepreneurial behavior, the police can come to you and say ‘You’re engaged in illegal activity. We can take you, take your spouse, take your kid and put them in this institution where you know horrible things happen.’ So the penal system not only serves its traditional function as a platform for political corruption but we find it is now a platform for economic predation as well.

We discovered something that we call the ‘market syndrome.’ It is a series of characteristics that seem to be linked with engaging in market activities. People who engage in market activities are 50% more likely to be arrested than their counterparts. They are more likely to harbor more negative appraisals of the regime than their counterparts. And in a society where people are afraid to express their opinions, these guys who are engaged in the market, who have been to jail and been released, are more likely to express their views to others. That is to say that the market is emerging as a kind of semi-autonomous zone of social communication and potentially political organizing. And in that sense, the regime is right to fear the market.

And that brings us to the final theme, and that is the political attitudes of these people and nascent dissent. What we find is people have very negative appraisals of the regime. That’s not surprising. We’re sampling from a group of people that have voted with their feet and one would expect them to have negative views, though we go through fairly elaborate statistical exercises to try to control as best we can for the demographic characteristics of the people we’ve interviewed.

People have very negative views of the regime. They are increasingly disinclined to believe the regime’s meta-narrative, which rationalizes their misery as a function of being held captive by hostile foreign forces. Most of these people hold the government itself as responsible for their plight.

WSJ: You two previously wrote one of the seminal studies on the North Korean famine (Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid and Reform), what did the refugees tell you about living through that?

Mr. Noland: Both Steph and I were really struck by was just how the famine experience reverberates. The famine was more than 10 years ago. It ended in 1998. A significant share of the people, I think about a third, reported separation from, or death of, family members during that process. You had people out scavenging to find food. People going to China. Family separation and death of family members just continued to reverberate.

We asked them: ‘Were you aware of the international food aid program?’ The numbers differ in our surveys, but significant numbers of people were unaware of the food aid program. It was astonishing to us.

Then, among the ones who were aware, we asked `Do you believe you were a beneficiary?’ Only a small minority responded yes. And when we run all the regressions, this status of knowing of the existence of the program but believing you were not a beneficiary, this is a profoundly demoralizing experience. These people feel they were abandoned at this time of need, when they were seeing their families and neighbors dying. They believe it’s going to the army and the elites. That group of people, when we run the psychological tests and ask them their views of the regime, this is an embittered group. The effect of that experience is bigger than being in the prisons.

We wrote a book on the famine, so obviously we’re interested in it. But we were surprised and we wouldn’t have guessed that this experience continues to reverberate among the people who lived through it.

Read the full story here:
Marcus Noland on NK’s Refugees and Economy
Wall Street Journal: Korea Real Time
Evan Ramstad
1/12/2011

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Daedong Credit Bank press release

Sunday, January 16th, 2011

The Daedong Credit Bank (Based in the Potonggang Hotel in Pyongyang) has issued a press release.

I have made a PDF of it available here.

Here is their web page.

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DPRK establishes State General Bureau for Economic Development

Sunday, January 16th, 2011

According to KCNA:

The DPRK Cabinet adopted its decision on “10-Year State Strategy Plan for Economic Development” and decided to establish the State General Bureau for Economic Development.

This governmental body will handle all issues arising in implementing state strategy projects for economic development.

This step was taken at a time when miracles and innovations are being performed in the socialist economic construction everyday on the basis of a solid springboard laid for building a thriving socialist nation under the outstanding and tested Songun leadership of Kim Jong Il.

The above-said plan set a state strategic goal for economic development. It puts main emphasis on building infrastructure and developing agriculture and basic industries including electric power, coal, oil and metal industries and regional development. It, at the same time, helps lay a foundation for the country to emerge a thriving nation in 2012 and opens a bright prospect for the country to proudly rank itself among the advanced countries in 2020.

When the above-said strategy plan is fulfilled, the DPRK will emerge not only a full-fledged thriving nation but take a strategic position in Northeast Asia and international economic relations.

The DPRK Cabinet entrusted the Korea Taepung International Investment Group with the task to fully implement major projects under the strategic plan.

The historic Conference of the Workers′ Party of Korea and events to mark the 65th anniversary of the founding of the WPK successfully held in the DPRK fully demonstrated the might of the single-mindedly united country in the aspects of politics and ideology and in military technique. All the people are dynamically advancing to fling open the gate of a thriving nation in 2012.

According to Yonhap:

Cho Bong-hyun, a Seoul-based analyst with IBK Bank, said North Korea had been working on the 10-year plan since late 2009 and that it covers 12 areas worth US$100 billion.

According to Cho, the dozen categories include agricultural development, the building of five logistics districts, an airport and a port, and urban development.

“Setting up this 10-year plan is to help find breakthroughs for the North Korean economy through foreign investments, since the North has reached a point where it can’t solve economic problems on its own,” Cho observed.

The analyst also said the North’s current regime appears to be trying to build economic achievements credited to Kim Jong-un, the heir apparent to Kim Jong-il, and smooth the impending hereditary power succession.

I am unsure of the relationship between this new organization and the Korea Taepung International Investment Group and the State Development Bank (previous posts here).  I have a major exam next weekend so I will take a closer look after then.

Here also are some quick country rankings by per capital GDP: IMF, CIA.

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