North Korean Economy Watch

Institutie for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-08-25-1
8/25/2010

The quality of life among North Korea’s agricultural workers has reportedly worsened sharply in recent times. It appears that the aftermath of last November’s currency reform measure has finally reached as far as the farmhouse. According to a report by the group Daily NK, in the town of Onsong, North Hamgyong Province, only 4~5 families per neighborhood unit (around 30 families) manage to eat rice, in the way of ‘corn rice’, three times per day. Most households eat boiled ears of corn or gruel-like corn soup.

While it was thought that the currency reforms would ease the food shortages of farming households, their lives have grown more difficult due to the sudden fluctuations of market prices, driving down the number of farmers able to sell their yields at market. In the Onsong market, rice sold for an average of 1050 won per kilogram on August 20. Compared to the beginning of the month, prices were down approximately 100 won, but are still more than twice as high as just a few months ago. This is, in part, due to the foreign currency exchange rate. One Chinese Yuan is trading for 215 North Korean won.

Actually, North Korean farmers were about the only beneficiaries of the currency reform. Last December saw the biggest public distribution of goods ever. Commerce was up around 15~20 percent over the year prior. In addition, follow-up measures allowed families to collect 10,000-20,000 won each. However, as market prices became increasingly unstable during the first half of this year, it became harder for farmers to sell their goods. Because rice prices would double or triple, then drop again, month after month, it was difficult for a farmer to take 20~30 kilograms of corn to market and get the price they wanted. On top of this, the price of household goods was climbing, driving up the cost of living.

In North Korea, all farmers are obligated to work on cooperative farms, but are also allowed private plots to raise goods for supplementary income. Therefore, when they have an opportunity, most make their way to a local market to sell their goods. The regime considers this ‘supplementary’ income, but actually, the money earned from this practice is what most live off of, using profits from their corn sales to buy other food or necessities. For these farmers, not only is it difficult to sell their crops, but circumstances make it tough even to harvest them. In the case of one farmer in Onsong who works a 1500 pyong private plot, he harvests approximately three tons of corn per year. As those at the cooperative farm receive only 300 kilograms of corn in rations, three tons is not an insignificant amount. However, due to the cost of fertilizer, bribes to authorities, bribes to inspectors, etc., he is left with only around one ton. With fertilizer shortages this spring, considerably less fertilizer was available for private plots.

Even if the farmer saw yields similar to last fall, at today’s prices, he would be able to make only around 500,000 won. This is little more than the 40,000 won/month market traders can make. Farmers with plots of only 500~600 pyong have an even more difficult time. A source explained, “As stories of growing starvation in Kangwon Province spread, people are becoming more distraught,” and, “a family of four lives off of gruel made from one kilogram of potatoes or corn per day.”

UPDATE 4: Chinese government confirms Kim Jong-il visit.  According to Evan Ramstad in the Wall Street Journal:

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il met Chinese President Hu Jintao during his five-day visit to northeast China, the Chinese government confirmed Monday night as Mr. Kim left the country, in a surprise get-together that underscored their solidarity as they cope with pressure from the U.S. and other countries to act more responsibly.

The announcement was the climax of what appeared to be a coordinated public-relations push by China on Monday, beginning with stories in several media outlets praising the China-North Korea relationship while also saying Beijing shouldn’t be held responsible for Pyongyang’s provocative actions.

The meeting happened Friday, though China, as it has done with Mr. Kim’s previous visits, waited until he left the country to say he had been there.

In the initial reports confirming the meeting between Messrs. Kim and Hu, China’s state media said that Mr. Kim wanted a resumption of the six-nation talks aimed at striking a bargain for denuclearizing North Korea. They also hinted that Mr. Kim was interested in the economic overhauls that opened China to the world, though they didn’t say he endorsed or would follow them.

Mr. Kim for years has resisted requests of Chinese leaders to open up North Korea’s economy. Late last year, his regime tried to clamp down on market activities but halted the effort when the government couldn’t feed people.

Mr. Hu said on state TV that China should expand its economic cooperation with North Korea. Since Mr. Kim’s entourage was spotted in China on Thursday, analysts have speculated that one reason he made the trip was to seek more money and assistance for the impoverished North.

Analysts also speculated that Mr. Kim brought his expected heir-apparent, son Kim Jong Eun, to meet Chinese officials ahead of a political meeting in Pyongyang next week that may be the son’s public debut in North Korea. The Chinese news reports about the visit did not mention the son, however.

“I think there are other two issues Kim wants to talk about with China,” said Jin Hanyi, head of Northeastern Asian Research Institute at Yanbian University in Jilin. “North Korea recently had a bad flood and, with international sanctions against it and the failure of monetary reform, Kim wants to discuss how to deal with these awful messes,” Mr. Hanyi said. “Second, North Korea will hold a Workers’ Party meeting next month and he wants support from China for new policies.”

Mr. Kim’s entourage twice during the trip stopped in places associated with his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, moves that are likely to be portrayed in North Korea as highlighting the importance of the Kim family as another potential succession looms.

For outside diplomats, the greatest significance of the trip is the symbolism of Messrs. Kim and Hu going to great lengths to meet each other in the aftermath of criticism both countries took following the sinking of a South Korean earlier this year, an incident that South Korea, the U.S. and others blame on a North Korean attack.

China has refused to blame North Korea publicly for the sinking, which killed 46 South Korean sailors, or to examine the results of the South Korea-led investigation.

Instead, North Korea and China have, since late May when the investigation first produced the accusation against North Korea, called for the resumption of the six-party denuclearization talks. The talks began in 2003, producing two agreements that North Korea dragged out and ultimately failed to keep. Pyongyang formally walked away from them last year.

Japan, South Korea and the U.S. have said North Korea damaged the potential for the talks with its attack on the South Korean ship.

The message to restart the talks was also given last week by a different North Korean official to former U.S. President Jimmy Carter when Mr. Carter went to Pyongyang to retrieve an American teacher who entered North Korea illegally in January. Mr. Kim skipped the opportunity to meet Mr. Carter to go to China instead.Mr. Kim doesn’t like to fly and travels by train that is easily monitored by satellite by foreign governments. His entourage is then tracked on the ground by reporters who follow the highly visible security cordons that go up along his route.

On Monday, South Korean and Japanese news agencies reported the action as Mr. Kim took his specially outfitted train from Harbin, the capital of China’s most northeastern province Heilongjiang, to a smaller city called Mudanjiang and then down to the border crossing at Tumen.

Mr. Kim called himself a “witness” to the success of China’s “reform and opening up,” Chinese television reported, but it was unclear whether that meant the North would follow that model. Last year, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, in a visit to Pyongyang, proposed development projects valued at several billion dollars to North Korea, but none have gotten off the ground.

Early Monday, Chinese state media rang with praise for North Korea but also tried to draw a line in the two countries’ relationship.

The state-run Xinhua news agency published a commentary talking about Chinese men who sacrificed their lives for North Korea, during the Korean War of the 1950s and afterward. Its latest example was the tale of a Chinese man who drowned this month after rescuing three North Korean girls adrift at sea.

The man’s “sacrifice led us again to recollect the long history of friendship between the two peoples,” Xinhua wrote.

Another nationalist newspaper, Global Times, wrote an editorial that called the China-North Korea relationship both “special” and “normal.”

“The biggest negative impact the China-North Korea relationship has on China is that the U.S, Japan and South Korea all request that China be responsible for North Korea’s ‘irrational behaviors,’” the newspaper wrote. “However, China has no ability to shoulder such responsibility.”

UPDATE 3: Kim Jong il departs from Harbin and returns home.

UPDATE 2: Kim Jong-il in Changchun. According to Yonhap:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il arrived in a Chinese industrial city Friday, a day after making a pilgrimage to sites bearing footmarks of his late father, on an abrupt trip seen as related to his leadership succession plan.

A convoy of some 30 vehicles, believed to be carrying the reclusive leader, arrived at the South Lake Hotel in the northeastern Chinese city of Changchun, about an hour and a half after leaving the nearby city of Jilin.

Earlier in the day, Kim’s convoy appeared to be traveling to a Jilin train station, where security was heavy, to allow the leader to board his personal armored train to Changchun. However, instead of stopping, the convoy took a highway to the capital city of Jilin province. About 10 police vehicles provided escort for the group of limousines and mini-buses.

Kim’s stay in Changchun is expected to include a tour of advanced industrial facilities.

Kim, 68, began the latest secrecy-shrouded trip a day ago, crossing into China around midnight Wednesday aboard his luxurious special train.

The trip was a surprise because it came as former U.S. President Jimmy Carter was in Pyongyang for a widely speculated meeting with him. It was also Kim’s second visit to China in about three months, an unusual move for the isolated leader who rarely travels abroad.

Carter arrived in Pyongyang Wednesday to win the release of an American citizen detained in the North since January for illegal entry. Carter headed home Friday with the freed American, Aijalon Mahli Gomes, Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency said.

It was apparent that he failed to meet with Kim Jong-il.

On Thursday, Kim paid a visit to Jilin’s Yuwen Middle School, which his father and national founder, Kim Il-sung, attended for two and a half years starting in 1927. Kim also visited Beishan Park in the city of Jilin where the remains of anti-Japanese independence fighters are buried.

North Korea has lavishly lauded Kim Il-sung for his anti-Japanese activities during the 1910-45 colonial rule. The late leader, who founded North Korea in 1948, is still revered as eternal president and is subject to a strong cult of personality even after his death in 1994.

Kim’s move suggests that he visited the two sites considered sacred to his family dynasty ahead of handing power over to his youngest son, Jong-un, analysts said. Unconfirmed reports said the heir-apparent could be accompanying his father on the rare trip.

North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party is scheduled to convene a rare leadership meeting early next month in which the younger Kim could be given a key position in the run-up to formally taking over the communist dynasty.

On Thursday, Pyongyang’s state media reported that the country has started holding lower-level meetings of party delegations in the run-up to next month’s conference.

“The meetings were unanimous in saying that the WPK conference … will be a significant conference which will be a landmark of an epochal turn in strengthening the party and a great jubilee of great significance in ushering in a new surge in the revolution and construction,” the KCNA said.

Kim’s trip came as tensions still run high in the wake of the March sinking of a South Korean warship and China pushes to jump start six-nation talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear programs.

Beijing’s chief nuclear envoy has been in Seoul for talks on his trip to North Korea last week.

China is pushing for a “three-step” proposal for resuming the nuclear talks.

The proposal calls for Pyongyang and Washington first holding bilateral talks before all six parties hold an informal preparatory meeting and then an official session. The talks, which involve the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S., have been stalled since late 2008.

South Korea has expressed its reluctance to reopen the dialogue unless the North shows a “responsible” attitude over the sinking and proves through action that it is serious about abandoning its nuclear programs.

UPDATE 1: Here is KCNA coverage of Cater’s visit to secure the release of Gomes

ORIGINAL POST: Former President Jimmy Carter is in Pyongyang to secure the release of American Aijalon Gomes.  Past stories about his detention can be found here. President Carter last traveled to Pyongyang in 1994  and met with Kim Il-sung (the North Koreans made a propaganda video out of the trip which they sell to foreigners), and discussed terms to freeze the country’s nuclear program. Many were speculating that President Carter might meet with Kim Jong-il while in the DPRK, but Kim appears to be in China.

According to the New York Times:

The man Mr. Carter is seeking to free is Aijalon Mahli Gomes, a 30-year-old Christian from Boston who was arrested in January for crossing into North Korea and sentenced in April to eight years of hard labor and fined $700,000. Last month, North Korea said he tried to kill himself out of “frustration with the U.S. government’s failure to free him.”

The visit by Mr. Carter, an evangelical Christian, is the second to North Korea by a former American president in a year on what the United States described as a private humanitarian missions. Last August, Bill Clinton flew there and met with the reclusive North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, to secure the release of two American journalists held for five months for illegal entry.

The Obama administration kept its distance, emphasizing that Mr. Carter not an envoy. “I’ll just say that President Carter is on a private humanitarian mission and I’m not going to comment more beyond that,” said Mark Toner, a State Department spokesman.

But as with Mr. Clinton’s visit, Mr. Carter’s has deeper diplomatic undercurrents. The North Koreans have used the captive Americans as bargaining chips, promising to release them in exchange for visits from specific high-profile Americans. North Korea can portray the meetings domestically as evidence of its international importance, while the United States has a high-level direct encounter that it cannot officially engage in.

But Mr. Carter has a long history as an independent agent, and some administration officials worried that he might undercut their policy in some way and make it harder to keep up the pressure on Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program.

It was not immediately clear who among the North Koreans would meet with Mr. Carter. The North Korean media reports said that he was greeted at the airport in Pyongyang, the capital, by Kim Kye-gwan, a senior diplomat who has been the North’s main envoy to the six-nation talks on its nuclear weapons program. The talks have been stalled for more than two years, but the North recently said it was willing to return to the discussions.

Higher-level meetings would appear to be likely, since Mr. Carter’s visit comes at a fraught time for North Korea. Its economy remains deeply troubled, and its ravaged agricultural sector has been further damaged by recent flooding. A March torpedo attack that sank one of the South’s warships, killing 46 sailors, drove inter-Korean relations to their lowest point in years and added to tensions with the United States. In addition, there may be a struggle over succession within the government of Kim Jong-il, who has had serious health problems.

The case of Mr. Gomes also touches on efforts of Christians in South Korea and the United States on behalf of North Koreans. His illegal entry was made in support of Robert Park, a fellow Christian from the United States who crossed from China in December to call attention to the dismal conditions in the North’s prison camps. Mr. Park was expelled after about 40 days.

Mr. Carter has been a contentious figure among South Korean conservatives. “Carter is idealistic, not realistic when it comes to North Korea,” said Hong Kwan-hee, director of the Institute for Security Strategy in Seoul. “North Korea always has tried to use prominent Americans, preferably Democrats, as a medium to engage the United States and drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington.

In another development, the South Korean authorities on Thursday morning were looking into indications that Mr. Kim, the North Korean leader, might be visiting China, an official in the presidential office of South Korea said. News media in South Korea, including the national news agency, Yonhap, and the mass-circulation daily, Chosun, reported the same on their Web sites.

“We have signs that Kim Jong-il is visiting China,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the matter. “It’s unclear whether he has arrived or is still on the move.”

If true, this would be Mr. Kim’s sixth trip to China and his second in three months. North Korea and China usually do not confirm a trip by Mr. Kim until after it is over. His previous trips were often preceded by weeks of media speculation. Many journalists waited on the Chinese side of the border to wait for his train to cross. This time, there was no such activity.

According to Bloomberg:

Carter yesterday also met with Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of North Korea, KCNA said. The pair had a “cordial talk” in the Mansudae Assembly Hall, the official news agency said.

Regarding Kim Jong-il’s visit to China, I turn to the Los Angeles Times:

In a trip shrouded in mystery and speculation, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il traveled to China by train with his youngest son, according to two South Korean government officials.

An official in the South Korean Blue House confirmed late Thursday that Kim’s train had crossed the border into China around midnight Wednesday, but said the North Korean leader did not take the usual route through the city of Dandong.

We “detected indications a few days ago,” the official told reporters, asking not to be named. “Chairman Kim’s special train has been confirmed to have left Manpo for China’s Jilin around midnight Wednesday.”

Another official, who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to discuss the matter, said earlier that intelligence had detected movement by the reclusive Kim.

South Korea’s Yonhap news service quoted an official speculating that the trip might be associated with the anticipated handover of power in the secretive regime.

“Signs have been detected that Chairman Kim visited China early Thursday morning,” the second unnamed official told the agency. “We are still trying to grasp his exact destination and the purpose of the visit.”

This was Kim’s second trip to China since May, when he embarked on a five-day journey for a summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

The Chinese government Thursday had no immediate comment on the visit. Because of security concerns, Kim’s rare trips outside North Korea to the ally nation are publicly confirmed only after they end.

The Yalu River crossing between North Korea and the Chinese city of Dandong was badly flooded last weekend, disrupting the railroad lines over which Kim normally travels in an armored, luxury train, reportedly equipped with conference rooms, bedrooms and high-tech communication facilities.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at Beijing’s Renmin University, speculated that Kim “must need China’s help in reducing tensions and ensuring a good environment for the succession of his son.”

The visit may signal that North Korea is prepared to return to six-party talks hosted by China on its nuclear program. North Korea also badly needs humanitarian assistance as a result of a series of economic blunders, as well as poor harvests and damage to cropland caused by the recent flooding.

Kim, who is 68 and in poor health after suffering a stroke in 2008, is in the process of naming his youngest son, the little-known Kim Jong Eun, 26, as his successor, a decision which should be announced at a special congress next month of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party.

“It’s likely that Kim Jong Il wants to end the debate on the succession issue in Pyongyang ahead of a meeting next month of the North Korea’s Workers’ Party,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

“There’s been plenty of succession talk between working-level and senior-level officials in Beijing and Pyongyang where they have failed to reach an agreement. Kim Jong Il now seems to be taking matters into his own hands.”

Kim Jong Eun, who was educated in Switzerland and speaks several languages, did not accompany his father during the previous trip to China in June. His presence on this visit might be something of a courtesy call to introduce the future leader to the Chinese.

“China will have no choice but to deal with Kim Jong Eun. Their regime is traditionally a family dynasty and, like it or not, if you deal with North Korea, you have to deal with their ruler,” said Shi.

Kim Jong Il assumed power in North Korea with the death of his father, Kim Il Sung, in 1994.

The rumors come amid tensions on the Korean Peninsula following the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in March. The south has blamed North Korea for an unprovoked torpedo attack.

The trip also comes the day after former U.S. President Jimmy Carter arrived in Pyongyang to secure the release of a U.S. citizen imprisoned for illegally entering the country.

Here is the original Yonhap story.

Here is more in the New York Times.

Here is more in the Los Angeles Times.

The Road less taken: DPRK railway crossings into China

Click image for larger version

The DPRK does not have many railway crossings into China. From West to East: Sinuiju, Sakju, Manpho,  and Namyang.  Historically there were additional crossings at the Unbon Dam,  Hyesan, and Saepyol, but these do not appear to be used anymore.  Namyang is in the furthest reaches of North Hamgyong Province, so if Kim is going to cross into China by rail, he has to do so from Sinuiju, Sakju, or Manpho.  Coincidentally, he has a private railway station and secure residential compound near each of these border crossings–though the closest leadership compound and train station to Manpho is in nearby Kanggye and the closest compound to the Sakju Bridge is in Changsong County.

Given that the Sinuiju crossing is most convenient, it is a bit of a mystery why he chose to cross at Manpho when Sakju/Changsong is so much closer.  Maybe the Sakju/Changsong railway crossing is not as convenient for some unknown reason?  Maybe the “smaller” Kanggye leaderhip compound is more exclusive and Kim prefered hiding this trip from as many of his cohorts as he could?  Maybe the Changsong elite compound (which is also on the water) is also flooded?  I do not know the reason, but there has to be one…

According to the Daily NK:

Kim Young Nam, North Korea’s Supreme People’s Committee Permanent Chairperson, nominally the head of state, has stated that the Workers’ Party is being returned to the forefront of state affairs, offering a further clue to the intention behind September’s Workers’ Party Delegates’ Conference.

Speaking at the “Commemorative Convention for the 50th Anniversary of the Leadership of the Military-first Revolution”, Kim told assembled officials in Pyongyang Indoor Stadium on Tuesday, “Upon the opportunity of the historical Delegates’ Conference of the Chosun Workers’ Party, we will reinforce the function of our Party, which is the headquarters of the Military-first revolution, organizer and fugleman of the victory of our people,” according to Chosun Central News Agency.

A number of experts have predicted that North Korea plans to reinforce the function and authority of the Workers’ Party through the delegates’ conference. However, this is the first time that a high North Korean official has spoken publicly on the matter.

Kim additionally emphasized, “All Party projects should be carried out in accordance with the ideology and intention of the Party, based on the line and policies of the Party and by reinforcing the leadership role of the Party in revolutionary construction.”

However, Kim was keen to stress the logical correctness of Kim Jong Il’s Military-first line. “Comrade Kim Jong Il, who has opened the prosperous era of the Workers’ Party by wisely leading military construction and revolutionary projects based on Military-first politics, by viewing military business and Party business together as the keys, has achieved great historical innovations in the construction of the strong and prosperous fatherland by advancing the Military-first achievements of the Juche idea,” he explained.

On August 25, 1960, while Kim Jong Il was studying at Kim Il Sung University, he joined his father for an on-site inspection of Ryu Kyung Su No. 105 Tank Unit. In 2005, the North Korean authorities declared that day the first day of the Military-first leadership and have organized commemorative events annually ever since. 

Read the full story here:
North Korea Speaks Out on Workers’ Party Role
Daily NK
Kim Yong Hun
8/25/2010

North Korea has been hit with some serious flooding this year.  First came this report from August 5. Now KCTV and Xinhua are broadcasting footage of the flooded Yalu/Amnok River.

According to KCNA:

Planes of the air force and warships of the navy of the Korean People’s Army rushed to the area of Sinuiju, North Phyongan Province, hit by sudden torrential rain and successfully conducted an emergency operation on August 21 to rescue the inhabitants who were at the crossroads of life and death.

Unprecedented downpour hit the northeastern area of China on August 19 and 20, causing flooding in rivers. This also adversely affected the northwestern area of Korea.

5,300 cubic meters of water rushed into the River Amnok per second from a river of China, causing the water level of the river to rise suddenly from 0:00 on August 21. As a result, the river swelled in a minute, leaving even Sinuiju City inundated. This paralyzed traffic and did damage to many objects.

Hardest hit by flooding were Sangdan-ri, Hadan-ri, Taji-ri, Soho-ri in Uiju County, Ojok Islet and Maksa Islet in Sinuiju City. They were completely submerged and single-story houses went under water.

The flood victims were at a loss on the roof tops of buildings and hills.

The institutions concerned took emergency measures to rescue the victims but the damage was so serious that they proved unsuccessful. Upon hearing this, General Secretary Kim Jong Il ordered KPA units to immediately launch rescue operations.

Air force units sent dozens of planes and navy units warships and various types of means and succeeded in evacuating at least 5,150 flood victims to safe areas in close touch with officials of party and power organs and people’s security organs in the flood-hit areas.

The inhabitants in the flood-ravaged areas and servicepersons who were mobilized for the rescue operations noted in excited tone that the socialist system in the DPRK is the most advantageous and benevolent one as the life and properties of people are protected by servicepersons and Kim Jong Il is the greatest father as he provided this land of bliss for the people.

And according to the Daily NK:

Faced with rising waters in the Yalu River, the North Korean authorities issued an evacuation warning at around 8 P.M. on the 20th, but most residents did not place much faith in it and stayed at home, so the number of flood victims increased when the river burst its banks at dawn on the 21st, according to a Daily NK source.

The source explained on the 22nd, “At 3 A.M. yesterday, downtown Shinuiju started flooding and houses got submerged. The day before yesterday at around 8 P.M. the authorities released a broadcast telling people to evacuate to South Shinuiju, but the majority of residents ignored it.”

He went on, “In Majeon-dong, since the sound of water was so loud at dawn, only then did people evacuate their places to an elementary school in the neighborhood which was on higher ground. Some of them could not leave, so presumably there were victims.”

He added, “I heard there might be deaths, although there has been no official report yet.”

If people also ignored the evacuation warning in other regions, there is a high possibility that damage in Sangdan-ri, Hadan-ri and Daji-ri in Shinuiju, places in which Chosun Central TV reported 100 percent of houses and farms had been flooded, might have been much more significant than in Majeon-dong.

The source explained the reason why people did not listen to the warning, “Since the middle of this month there have been a few warnings, but nothing serious happened. Therefore, people did that.”

“Cadres living in apartments were busy carrying their stuff to upper floors, but those who don’t have any property have nothing to damage, so it can’t have been that. There might have been some who stayed at home in order to keep a few domestic animals or a small amount of land,” he added.

Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Saturday, “From 12 A.M. to 9 A.M. on the 21st, due to more than 300 mm of heavy rain falling around the Supung Dam, 100 percent of houses, official buildings and farms on the Yalu River were flooded and Sangdan-, Hadan-, Daji-ri in Shinuiju and Seoho- and Eojeok-ri in Uiju were also flooded.”

Meanwhile, another source has reported to The Daily NK that while airplanes and helicopters were rescuing trapped people, one helicopter crashed, killing the crew.

The source explained, “The helicopter was approaching Sangdan-ri alongside the Yalu River in order to rescue isolated residents, but it crashed into a rice paddy. The two pilots died.”

Although Chosun Central TV reported the fact that helicopters had been sent to the rescue project on the orders of Kim Jong Il, there was no word of the crash.

According to the source, people rescued by other helicopters were sent to Dongrim, North Pyongan Province.

The KCNA reported that some 5,000 residents were evacuated to high ground.

The clean-up has been underway since the 22nd, and will continue for three days. Shinuiju residents are taking part.

Joseph Bermudez, military analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review and author of  The Armed Forces of North Korea, has published the seventh issue of his very fascinating KPA Journal.

Click here to download the full issue (PDF).

Topics include: The KPA Mechanized Infantry Batallion, BTR-60 in KPA Service, Han-Gang Briges, P’okpoong Main Battle Tank

You can find all of the previous issues of KPA Journal here.

According to an article in the Korea Times:

Approximately 100 small Chinese companies out of 150 that have investments in North Korea are based in Jilin and Liaoning Provinces near the northeastern border with the North.

Read the full story here:
Investments in NK limit China’s policy choices
Korea Times
Kang Hyun-kyung
8/20/2010

The image above comes from the Boston Globe and demonstrates the DPRK’s “stealth” tactics described below.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The North Korean military has developed various kinds of camouflage materials like stealth paint and set up fake facilities and equipment to cheat state-of-the-art reconnaissance satellites and aircraft, a confidential field manual obtained exclusively by the Chosun Ilbo shows.

The manual was smuggled out of the North by a source through a Christian organization called Caleb Mission.

So far information about the North Korean military’s camouflage tactics trickled out only piecemeal through testimonies of North Korean defectors, but this is the first time a confidential military field manual with details has been revealed.

The manual, printed in 2005, quotes leader Kim Jong-il as saying, “As I’ve said several times, modern warfare is stealth warfare. We can say that victory or defeat will be determined by how we carry out stealth warfare.”

The 80-odd-page booklet gives detailed instructions on how to make and apply stealth paint that absorbs radar waves and build various kinds of fake facilities, such as command posts, foxholes, runways, fighter jet and naval bases, and cave strongholds.

The manual also describes how to conceal real facilities or equipment and to make military units look as though they are moving when they are not to deceive South Korean and U.S. reconnaissance.

A South Korean intelligence expert who reviewed the manual said, “I was surprised to find that the North Korean military has done more intensive and careful research into stealth tactics than we thought. This is a useful piece of information that will be of great help to our military stepping up preparedness against the North.”

And according to the AFP:

North Korea has developed camouflage materials such as stealth paint to hide its warships, tanks or fighter jets from foreign reconnaissance satellites and aircraft, reports said Monday.

A confidential field manual used by the communist North’s military showed the isolated regime has also built a network of foxholes and caves, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported.

The newspaper said the manual quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il as saying: “Modern warfare is stealth warfare. We can say that victory or defeat will be determined by how we carry out stealth warfare.”

The handbook, printed in 2005, was smuggled out of the North by a source through Caleb Mission, a South Korean Christian organisation.

It gives detailed instructions on how to make and apply the stealth paint, which absorbs radar waves, Chosun Ilbo said.

The South’s defence ministry confirmed the North’s military had used the manual for years.

“We have already acquired a copy of the manual and are fully aware of the North’s tactics,” a ministry spokesman told AFP, declining to give details.

The manual describes how to conceal facilities or equipment and how to make military units look as though they are moving when they are not, to deceive South Korean and US reconnaissance.

Chosun Ilbo quoted an unnamed intelligence expert as saying he was surprised to find that the North’s military has done “more intensive and careful research into stealth tactics than we thought”.

Yonhap news agency carried a similar report.

The handbook describes concealing long-range artillery equipment by applying radar-reflective materials, it said.

The North’s military was also ordered to pave fake aircraft runways to deceive foreign prying eyes, Yonhap said.

Read the full stories here:
N.Korea’s Stealth Warfare Manual Revealed
Choson Ilbo
8/23/2010

N.Korea develops camouflage tactics
AFP
8/23

According to Strategy Page:

North Korean TV recently showed video of a new tank, called the Storm Tiger. South Korean officials call it the M2002, after the year they first became aware of it. The new North Korean tank appears to be based on the Russian T-62, an unsuccessful design that North Korea produced under license. The M2002/Storm Tiger was apparently developed in the 1990s, based on 1980s technology. It appears to be a 40 ton vehicle, a little longer than the T-62 and may have some modern electronics (beyond a laser range finder.) The North Koreans describe the vehicle as “modern”, but even if they have modern fire control (which China or Russia won’t give away and which North Korea cannot really afford to buy), they are several decades behind Western (and South Korean) tank technology. North Korea has about 4,000 tanks, most of them based on 1950s and 60s technology. About half of them are Russian T-62s (or North Korea variants of that design). Against modern tanks, the North Korea vehicles perform more as targets than adversaries.

North Korea imported 500 T-62s in the 1970s. Then, in the 1980s, North Korea produced 1,200 lighter and modified versions of the T-62 (as the Chonmaho). There were five different models, with later ones having the ERA (Explosive Reactive Armor) and laser range finder.

Most Chonmaho tanks have since died of old age and lack of spare parts, with about 500 still available for service. This vehicle weighed 40 tons, had a four man crew, a 115mm gun (plus a 14.5mm and 7.62mm machine-guns) and added ERA. Top speed was 50 kilometers an hour and range on fuel carried was 450 kilometers. The original T-62 was an improved T-55, weighed 41.5 tons, entered service in 1961. Over 22,000 were eventually built, when production ended in 1975. There have been many improvements since. It is a simple tank, and over a thousand remain in service around the world. Russian T-62s most recently saw combat two years ago in Georgia. The T-62 can trace its design back to World War II. That’s because the T-54, which the T-62 evolved from (via the T-55), was developed in 1944. The basis for the T-54 was the T-44, an advanced model of the legendary T-34. The T-62, however, was the end of the line, in more ways than one.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s former Premier Pak Pong-ju appears to have returned to power with the Workers’ Party, more than three years after he was ousted due to his economic reform drive, according to a Pyongyang broadcast report on Saturday.

The North’s Korean Central Broadcasting Station introduced Pak as the “first deputy director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea,” reporting on the 50th foundation ceremony of Pyongyang’s flagship Okryu Restaurant held Friday with a number of senior officials and workers.

There is no other known figure with the same name among the North Korean power-holding elite.

Pak, a long-time industry technocrat and pragmatist, was named premier of the North’s Cabinet in September 2003. He spearheaded the North’s so-called July 1st Economic Measure reform drive toward market economy, which aimed to give more autonomy to state firms and gradually reduce state rationing of food and daily necessities.

But his strong initiative triggered a backlash from the party and the military that resulted in his dismissal. Pak was suspended from duty in June 2006 on charges of fund apprehension and was fired in April the following year. Kim Yong-il, then land and marine transport minister, replaced him.

Pak is believed to have been demoted to a managerial post at a clothing factory outside Pyongyang.

Cho Myung-chul, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy who has defected from North Korea, viewed Pak’s reinstatement as a signal of a shifting North Korean economic policy toward pragmatism, following its failed currency reform last year.

“Pak is an emblematic figure of the July 1st Economic Measure that promoted pragmatism. His reinstatement could be connected with an economic policy shift back to pragmatism after the anti-market currency reform failed.”

In a bid to curb the burgeoning merchant class and strengthen its socialist system, North Korea implemented a surprise currency reform in November, knocking two zeros off its denominations. But the move backfired, worsening food shortages and triggering social unrest.

Apparently taking responsibility for the botched reform, Premier Kim Yong-il was replaced by Choe Yong-rim in June.

The broadcast report on Saturday did not specify which department of the Workers’ Party Pak joined, but it is likely that he was posted to the light industry department, considering the ceremony involving a restaurant and the fact that he was the department’s first deputy director in 1993.

Pak is believed to be a close confidante to Jang Song-thaek, vice chairman of the National Defense Commission and brother-in-law of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Jang is seen as the central figure in grooming Kim’s third and youngest son, Jong-un, as the next leader.

Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun reported on Aug. 15, quoting multiple sources, that Pak and about 20 other figures close to Jang had been reinstated within the past two years. The report also said Pak has risen to the second highest spot in the party’s light industry department, which is headed by Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il’s sister and Jang’s wife.

According to the New York Times:

He is the latest among senior North Korean officials whose sudden banishment and equally unexpected reinstatement have sparked outside speculation about Mr. Kim’s intentions. Mr. Pak appeared to have fallen from Mr. Kim’s favor when he was fired from the premiership in 2007 and sent to work as a factory manager in a provincial town.

“His reinstatement could signal the return of pragmatists and reformists,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea analyst in the Sejong Institute south of Seoul. “We may be able to see him push the economic reform and openness he had once championed.”

Analysts in Seoul say that few North Korean officials wield much individual influence in Mr. Kim’s government. But they say that they can infer Mr. Kim’s plans from the way he punishes and rewards officials identified with various policy approaches.

“Pak’s reinstatement indicates that North Korea is shifting back to market reforms, even if grudgingly, after its botched attempt to re-enforce state control on the economy,” said Baek Seung-joo, the head of North Korea research at the government-financed Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.

Mr. Pak, a lifetime technocrat, was best known as the architect of “Measures to Improve Economic Management Order.” Issued on July 1, 2002, they indirectly acknowledged the failure of the North’s ration system by instructing factories, collective farms and other economic units to provide their own daily necessities and give incentives for workers.

In September 2003 Mr. Pak was made prime minister, a post in charge of carrying out economic policies.

His reforms were necessitated by the collapse of the centrally planned economy after a famine in the mid-1990s. But they also coincided with — and fueled — the spread of private markets, which quickly emerged as a key source of food and other necessities for North Koreans.

But Mr. Pak’s reform programs irked the government’s old guard, especially in the hard-line military, which had grabbed the lion’s share in trade under the old system. The markets facilitated the influx of DVDs and other smuggled goods the government considered a capitalist threat.

Around 2005, North Korea began controlling markets. Its attempt to reinforce state control on the economy peaked late last year when it replaced its banknotes with a new currency, shut down markets and ordered people to buy goods only from state-run stores. The currency reform was aimed at stifling the markets by drastically reducing traders’ personal wealth in the old currency.

The moves quickly backfired. Inflation surged as traders hoarded their goods and government stores failed to meet demand. Sporadic protests were reported. Earlier this year, Pak Nam-gi, head of finance and planning who led the failed currency reform, was executed, according to South Korean news reports. North Korean markets began coming back to life, according to recent defectors.

Pak Pong-ju, the former prime minister, returns as North Korea prepares for a party caucus early next month. Officials and analysts in Seoul say they will monitor the meeting for changes in the cabinet and party leadership that might provide clues to Mr. Kim’s plans to hand over power to his third son, Kim Jong-un, who is in his late 20s.

Mr. Pak’s reinstatement adds to the growing influence of Jang Song-taek, Mr. Kim’s brother-in-law, said Mr. Baek, the researcher.

In June, Mr. Kim presided over a session of the rubber-stamp Supreme People’s Assembly where Mr. Jang, a potential caretaker for his son, was elevated to the No. 2 post in the ruling hierarchy. In the same meeting, Mr. Pak’s successor as prime minister, Kim Yong-il, who reportedly made a rare apology in February for the botched currency reform, was fired.

Mr. Pak, as first deputy director, is believed to report directly to Kim Kyong-hee, Mr. Kim’s younger sister and Mr. Jang’s wife, who works as party director in charge of the North’s light industries, Mr. Cheong said.

Read the full stories here:
N. Korean ex-PM Pak Pong-ju appears to be back in power
Yonhap
8/21/2010

North Korea Reinstates Market-Oriented Official
New York Times
Choe Sang-hun
8/23/2010

Story 2: The Inauspicious Life of Pilots
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
8/20/2010

…In North Korea, pilots receive top class treatment alongside submariners and the missile corps. They live above the law in many ways. For instance, if a pilot murders someone in society and then returns to their unit, M.P.s cannot arrest them.

While the top choice of middle school graduates is to work in the No.5 Department of the Central Committee of the Party, that which oversees every aspect of Kim Jong Il’s life, pilot is a popular second choice. The primary condition for selection is family background.

Until the 1980s, offspring of normal workers could be selected if they had a good academic record and enough physical strength. However, any person whose family had committed a political crime was excluded. Also, if a family member had sided with South Korea or went missing during the Korean War, they would be excluded, too.

Until this period, the occupation of pilot was deemed to be a dangerous job and children of the elite did not consider it as a career. However, as the economic crisis began in the 1990s, this view changed. Many of the children of elite officials now choose to become pilots.

Currently, pilots still receive ‘special treatment’ in North Korea; however, it is not particularly special any more. Compared to Party officials, who make money in business, the feeling of deprivation which pilots feel has increased a lot.

Pilots are still bound to the state for their living, while the elite increase their wealth and authority through foreign currency earning and market business.

Until the early 1990s, “No. 4 supplies,” which are given to pilots, were free and extras were sold to their families if necessary. Also, since North Korea was worried about the pilots’ mental states, they took care of family issues and distributed supplies to their families once a month.

Even during “The March of Tribulation” in the mid-1990s, normal food distribution was given to families of pilots. However, as the atmosphere in society changed, their stress is increasing. Children of pilots are becoming a target in schools; teachers demand much of pilots’ children first.

Air Force Units receive a relatively good coal supply, however, since the absolute quantity is still lacking, they need to prepare firewood on their own, too. Until the early 1990s, if one or two packs of cigarette, soybean oil, and beer were given to workers on a farm in the surrounding area or a forest ranger, firewood might come in return. However, the times have changed.

Wives of pilots also have to enter the battle. Wives sell distributed supplies to wholesalers or sell them directly in farming villages in the surrounding area.

However, even in the situation where a lot of workers receive not even a single grain of rice from the nation, the supply for pilots is still special. However, since pilots do not have the authority to use it for business and bribery like other officials; their practical standard of living is not very different from a person who sells home appliances in the market.

The biggest stress which North Korean pilots feel is their concern for their old age. Currently in North Korean society, the treatment you receive in active duty and that of the retired are very different.

Until the 1990s, North Korea praised pilots as a “treasure of the nation” and promised them lifelong care. But after 2000, the retired were completely abandoned. The national pension is worth less than a price of one kilogram of corn.

Usually in other countries, the rising generation has more discontent toward the government compared to the mature group, but in North Korea it is the opposite and this is the reason for the phenomenon. When retired, they need to farm or do business in the market, but retirees are short of market experience and strength. Current pilots, observing the lives of their former comrades, cannot feel comfortable about it.

Now we are in an era where even a pilot receiving “top” level treatment from North Korea attempts an escape, and this is not surprising anymore.

Story 1: Pilot Privileges Fade into History
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
8/11/2009

…[S]pecial employees, such as air force pilots or submarine captains, belong to a class which is treated as the most exceptional in North Korea (notwithstanding officials or members of elite organizations). Before the start of the 21st century, pilots enjoyed considerable privileges. The North Korean state paid special attention to cultivating pilots, showering them with preferential treatment. Goods provided to pilots and their family members were entirely free and a separate compensation-based ration system applied to the whole group.

So, in the North, the closest thing to a “summer vacation” as enjoyed by the people of the free world would inevitably be the “recreation” of pilots. In North Korea, pilots and their family members were permitted vacation once a year and once every two years, respectively. Submarine captains were entitled to similar terms.

Some of the recreation centers used by pilots and their families include the “Galma Recreation Center” in Wonsan, the “Sokhu Recreation Center” in South Hamkyung Province, and the “Jooeul Recreation Center,” among others. All are located near the ocean, and are unparalleled in terms of scenery. In the case of the Galma Recreation Center, there are two buildings housing bedrooms for the visitors standing side-by-side in a shady area, while a separate dining hall and indoor gymnasium can also be found.

Usually, three to four singles and four to five married households from one unit (regiment level) could use the recreation center at any one time.

Single and family rooms are separate. In the former, there are four single beds and in the latter, two double beds. According to regulations, only two children per family are permitted; those who need to bring three or four children have to work out an arrangement with the management office.

In the centers, there is no designated work, but meals and sleeping times must be strictly kept. Breakfast begins at 7:30 A.M., lunch at 12:30 P.M. and dinner at 6 P.M.; naps can only be taken between 2 and 4 P.M. Bedtime is fixed at 10 P.M. Guests have to strictly adhere to these times.

Besides these restrictions, the visitors have the freedom to spend time as they want. Some people play Chinese chess (janggi) and others cards while the rest may choose to head for the beach.

The menus for the week are displayed next to the windows from which the food is served. Soup and bowls of rice are distributed per person and up to four side dishes are distributed to each table (a table consists of two groups).

Until the early 1990s, the most popular food among those served at the recreation centers was bread made in the former Soviet Union. Every morning, a Russian bread called “Khleb,” on which butter or powdered sugar could be put, was provided. The fruit which was given to each person at lunchtime was also popular with the visitors.

The period of recreation enjoyed by pilots was usually 20 days. However, some families, rather than using up all of their days, left the recreation centers in a hurry to visit parents or relatives in their hometowns. Usually, an additional 15 days of vacation was added unto the 20 recreation days, during which many people take trips to their hometowns.

Some diligent wives would continue to work even while in the centers. Surrounding the Galma Recreation Center, located on the shore of the East Sea, or the Sokhu Recreation Center are heaps of seaweed which are washed ashore with the tides. The wives, after washing the seaweed in the ocean water, dried it on the seashore.

Two or three 50-kg bags are barely sufficient for that much dried seaweed. Wives sent these to their in-laws or families with satisfaction.

However, such extravagant levels of recreation for pilots began to disappear in the mid-1990s with the March of Tribulation. Now, even when the state issues recreation permits, people tend to take off for hometowns, not to recreation centers.

Further, with the decline in the national esteem of pilots in recent years and due to the fact that the items which are provided as rations tend to be sold in the markets for additional income, the luxurious lives of the special class are becoming less impressive all the time. Recently, some pilots have even been selling their cigarette rations (one month’s worth) in the jangmadang.

Corruption also afflicts pilots to no small extent. Schools request additional money and products from the children of pilots, due to the popular image of affluence they command.

The sense of deprivation among pilots and family members, who are supposedly among the most revered people in North Korea, has been growing. Their status has indeed decreased over the years; one cannot ignore the fact that the standard of living of private merchants or foreign currency earners has now outpaced that of pilots, who are dangerously dependent on rations for their survival.