2008 DPRK census analysis
UPDATE 2: The Wall Street Journal’s Evan Ramstad published some analysis of the DPRK’s 2008 census data. According to the article:
North Korea is getting bigger, older and less healthy, according to data from the country’s latest census, and its fabled million-man army might have fewer than 700,000 people.
The authoritarian government in December released results of the census conducted in 2008, saying its population had climbed to 24 million people from 21.2 million in the previous census in 1993.
More details have been published by the United Nations Population Fund, which helped North Korea conduct the census and sent five teams of observers to monitor it.
Even so, it’s difficult for outsiders, with so little access to the country, to be certain of the precision of North Korea’s data. For decades, the government has cut off the dissemination of most information about the country. The new census numbers provide a rare glimpse of official statistics.
The census reported that North Korea’s population grew at an annual average rate of 0.85% for the 15-year period, a time that included a devastating multiyear famine that analysts and foreign aid agencies estimate killed between one million and two million people.
A separate U.N. report published last year found that North Korea’s population has grown more slowly since 2005, at an annual rate of 0.4%. The global population has grown 1.2% annually since 2005, the U.N. report said.
North Korea’s census said the country’s population has proportionately fewer children and more middle-aged people than it did in 1993.
It also reported that people are less healthy.
Babies are more likely to die: The infant mortality rate climbed to 19.3 per 1,000 children in 2008 from 14.1 in 1993, though North Korea’s rate is still well below the world average, which a 2009 report by the U.N. agency put at 46 per 1,000 children.
North Koreans are living shorter lives—average life expectancy has fallen to 69.3 years from 72.7 in 1993.
As in many places, women live longer than men, with a gap of about seven years, compared with the world average of 4.4 years.
North Korea has 5.9 million households, with an average of 3.9 people in each, according to the census.
The typical home is 50 to 75 square meters in size (540 to 800 square feet). About 85% of homes have access to running water and about 55% have a flush toilet.
The census provided only a glimpse of the country’s economic structure, but even that produced some surprises. The occupation that provides the most employment—farming—has more women, 1.9 million, than men, 1.5 million.
The second-biggest occupation, working for the government or the military, employs 699,000 people. The census doesn’t break that group down further, but the figure suggests North Korea’s military isn’t as large as had been thought.
The military is often portrayed by outside military analysts and media as a force of one million people, mostly conscripts who are required to serve 10 years.
The third-largest employment sector by number of workers is education, followed by machinery manufacturing, textiles and coal mining. About 40,000 people work in computer, electronic or optical-product manufacturing.
North Korea hasn’t shared meaningful information about its economy or its financial system with the outside world since the early 1960s.
Outside estimates of its economic performance, most prominently an annual estimate by the South Korean central bank, the Bank of Korea, are filled with assumptions that even their authors say render them almost meaningless.
Read the full article here:
Pyongyang Reports an Aging, Less Healthy Population
Wall Street Journal
Evan Ramstad
2/20/2010
UPDATE 1: Oikono did some good work analyzing the census data here.
ORIGINAL POST: Thanks to a responsive employee at the UNFPA, I obtained a summary of the DPRK’s census findings. You can download the summary here.
Thanks to a reader I was able to obtain a copy of the entire census. You can download it here.
Both documents have been added to the “DPRK Economic Statistics” Page.
Happy reading.
February 15th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
NKEW,
How accurate do you think these census statistics are? To what degree do you think the UN vetted these figures, if at all?
A quick glance at the summary spurs the question. First, the English is just slightly awkward at points, suggesting it may not have been written by a UN official. Second, some results seem questionable. The assertion that “school attendance rate among children between 5 and 16 was also nearly 100 percent,” for example, does not match accounts offered in other sources, such as Barbara Demick’s new book.
February 15th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
To be honest I have not even looked at it yet. I have been so busy lately that it has been a lot if work just keeping up with posts. That is why I have not commented on it.
-Curtis
February 17th, 2010 at 10:15 am
It looks as if the census was led by the Central Bureau of Statistics — the same people behind the country’s economic numbers. Does this bode well or ill for the document’s accuracy?
Also, do you know where a copy of the 1993 census might be available?
February 21st, 2010 at 5:44 am
Regular Reader, if I’m not mistaken the 1993 census data is discussed extensively, if not reprinted in its entirety, in the immense 2003 version of Yonhap’s _North Korea Handbook_ ( http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/2486241 ).
February 21st, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Thanks for the link Adam.
February 21st, 2010 at 9:27 pm
[...] the recently released DPRK 2008 census figures, I have constructed a “rough” guide to the different living standards in different [...]
February 26th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
Cheers — Thanks for the lead.
And an update on the question of accuracy: According to Evan Ramstad, the UN had five teams of observers monitoring the census.
See:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703791504575078821926146904.html
March 19th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
[...] Here is some more thoughtful analysis of the census data by the Wall Street Journal and links to the…. [...]
March 20th, 2010 at 11:50 pm
[...] the recently released DPRK 2008 census figures, I have constructed a “rough” guide to the different living standards in different [...]
March 23rd, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Can you tell me when the UNPFA report was first posted about here? The Feb 20 WSJ article cites NK Econ Watch “last week”, but this post is dated Feb 21 (but comments begin Feb 15)?
March 28th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
It was posted on the 14th or 15th. The dates are messed up because I updated the post and did not keep the original date.
July 12th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
[...] In cooperation with the UNPF, the DPRK government conducted the first nationwide census in 1993 and … [...]