According to the FAO (Prodstat) estimates, DPRK’s Rice yields and production in 2007 were 3.8MT/ht. and 2.17MMT, the lowest since 2002. Total grain production in 2007 was estimated as 4.24MMT, also the lowest level since 2002 (roughly 184kg/head, 505g/person/day, or ~1490kcal/person/day). This indicates that there is precious little domestic grain in reserves. If 60% of calories are derived from cereals as in 2001-2003 (FAO), and no grain is diverted towards livestock or alcohol (unlikely), then the total intake should be 2475kcal/person/day near to what it was in 1989-1991 (FAO). Should the FAS projections prove true, rice production will be highly insufficient relative to the year 2007, which was historically low in and of itself.

If increased food aid is called for, I would like to remind advocates of foreign assistance of the case of fertilizers in Malawi. The provision of subsidized fertilizers there yielded far more grain at a lower cost than direct food aid. With fertilizer application and yields far lower in the North than in the South, it is possible for the North to feed itself more readily through fertilizers or energy aid than food aid. However, for those who see food aid as a rare lever to control a despotic regime, food has a greater ability of creating dependency than fuel virtue of its being directly consumed without stimulating industry or trade.