Archive for October, 2006

ROK ministry claims Kaesong take-home wages at $10/month

Monday, October 23rd, 2006

From the Choson Ilbo:
10/23/2006

N.Korean Party ‘Takes 60 Percent of Kaesong Wages’
 
More than half the salaries paid to North Koreans working at the inter-Korean Kaesong Industrial Park go to the North Korean Workers’ Party, a document written by a team in charge of inter-Korean economic cooperation at the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy shows. The team reported to the unification minister.

Grand National Party lawmaker Kim Gi-hyeon made the document public on Sunday. According to the memo, US$30 out of the monthly pay of $57.50 goes to the Workers’ Party. With $17.50 spent on insurance and other costs, North Korean workers at the complex are left with only $10 a month.

The Unification Ministry has publicly claimed that workers get $66 on average, with 30 percent spent on benefit packages of workers, like housing and medial expenses, and 70 percent going to the workers. A Unification Ministry official on Sunday denied the report. “It is the first I’ve heard about $30 going to the party,” he said. “How could the Industry Ministry know about something that the Unification Ministry didn’t know? We have no idea.”

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DPRK raises funds the same way as US local governments-tickets

Sunday, October 22nd, 2006

From the Korea Times:
10/22/2006
Kim Sue-young

Fines on Mt. Kumgang Tourists Rise

An increasing number of tourists have been fined this year at Mt. Kumgang in North Korea, the Ministry of Unification reported yesterday.

Some 1,177 fines were levied by North Korea from January to July, the highest figure to date with $16,800, being paid to the North’s officials according to the report. (more…)

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North Korean economy hard to gauge

Sunday, October 22nd, 2006

USA Today
Barbara Slavin
10/22/2006

At a kindergarten in Hyangsan, a small city near North Korea’s capital, dozens of colorfully dressed children put on a calisthenics display this month for visitors from the U.N. World Food Program.

The children, full of corn porridge and high-protein biscuits provided daily by the aid agency, jumped, stretched briskly and looked healthy, said Jean-Pierre DeMargerie, the top program official in North Korea. Kids in the front rows looked especially good, he said. “Those 20-30 yards back were not as well groomed or dressed.”

“It’s always difficult to get a clear picture,” DeMargerie said. “The North Koreans don’t like to expose those that might be sick or weak. You build your assumptions on a relatively small sample.”

North Korea, one of the world’s most isolated nations, is a hard society to fathom even for the few foreigners who visit regularly. Whether it is on the verge of economic collapse or resilient in the face of decades of adversity and deprivation remains a matter of conjecture.

Little can be seen clearly

The shroud that keeps North Korea hidden makes it virtually impossible to judge whether the limited sanctions the United Nations imposed in retaliation for an apparent nuclear weapons test Oct. 9 will have any effect on the regime of Kim Jong Il.

The Bush administration hopes the sanctions and international rebuke, particularly from China, North Korea’s main source of trade and investment, will prompt Kim to halt his nuclear program and resume negotiations on a diplomatic solution. “I think (the North Koreans) were surprised by a 15-0” vote on sanctions by the U.N. Security Council, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Saturday. “We’ll see whether or not they are prepared.”

DeMargerie and a half-dozen others who visited North Korea recently say it is better off than a few years ago and may be able to withstand sanctions.

The sanctions could reduce the amount of hard currency North Korea receives, but market reforms in place since 2002 and stockpiling of excess cash, food aid and fuel may give Kim a cushion to defy the U.N.

In 2005, North Korea “received a surplus of a half-million to 600,000 tons of grain” from China and South Korea, said Kenneth Quinones, a former U.S. intelligence expert on North Korea who teaches at Akita International University in Japan. “It looks like most of that went into storage.” North Korea also had a decent harvest this year after two consecutive bumper crops, he said.

Marcus Noland, a Korea specialist at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, said millions of dollars in Chinese investment went into North Korea during the first half of 2006, more than the country could absorb.

Signs of progress are evident to Steve Linton, 56, who has made more than 50 trips to North Korea in the last 15 years. The son and grandson of Christian missionaries, Linton heads the Eugene Bell Foundation, which has delivered medical equipment to about 70 hospitals throughout the country.

“It used to be that people were visibly thinner in the spring,” when food from the previous year’s harvest had run out and new crops were about to be planted, said Linton, who last visited North Korea in May. Now, he said, “that distinction has pretty much disappeared.”

Linton has noticed that North Koreans are better dressed and that there are more bicycles in a country where a decade ago, nearly everyone traveled on foot. “It’s not lightning speed, but it’s gradual change,” he said.

Emerging markets

Pyongyang, a gloomy capital of bland concrete high-rises and little commerce a decade ago, has a few dozen shops and many sidewalk stalls selling ice cream, cookies, flowers, even videocassettes, said Simon Cockerell, manager for Beijing-based Koryo Tours, which organizes trips to North Korea.

Cockerell said there are four or five billboards for cars, the first commercial advertising in the country. Electricity blackouts, once common, are rare in the capital, he said.

Other indicators of an economic cushion include:

•A resumption of a state-run rationing system that hands out about half a pound of grain daily to city residents, who make up 70% of North Korea’s 22 million people. DeMargerie said North Korean officials told his organization that rationing, which collapsed during a famine in the 1990s, resumed last year. It provides corn or rice to make porridge, a mainstay of the North Korean diet.

•Diversification of oil suppliers. China provides about 80% of North Korean fuel, and Iran and Indonesia supply most of the rest, Quinones said. That gives supply alternatives should China carry out threats to restrict deliveries. Noland said North Korea also may have stockpiled diesel fuel that South Korea provided in 2004.

Noland, who spent several weeks in China last summer along the 880-mile border with North Korea, said economic progress is notable for one group of new entrepreneurs: managers of shuttered state-owned factories who are trading coke, coal and iron ore for cheap Chinese consumer goods and food, which they then sell to fellow North Koreans.

“A lot of small-scale activity in North Korea is done by state-owned enterprises,” Noland said. “They have transformed themselves into retailers. I call it the ‘Wal-Martization’ of the North Korean economy.”

Troubles remain

On the negative side, trade with China, which totaled more than $1.5 billion last year, is down about 30% this year because of the difficulty of transferring funds to North Korean bank accounts, said Nam Sung Wook, head of North Korean Studies at Korea University in Seoul. The problem stems from U.S. action last year to freeze North Korean accounts in a bank in the Chinese enclave of Macau linked to counterfeiting and money laundering.

“There is some confusion among traders in Dandong,” a Chinese city across the Yalu River from North Korea that has become a center of cross-border commerce, Nam said. He forecasts negative growth for the North Korean economy this year after 2.2% growth last year. Even so, new sanctions “will not collapse the North Korean economy,” he said.

Those likely to suffer most are salaried urban professionals, said Nam, who visited Pyongyang in July. He said he heard grumbling from technocrats and professors, whose average monthly pay comes out to about $33 at the official exchange rate but only $5 on the black market.

North Korea also has massive infrastructure needs that make it difficult to sustain economic gains. DeMargerie said only 20%-25% of households have access to clean running water, and the sanitation system is becoming a serious health hazard.

Still, Noland predicted, “They can make it through the winter. They are hunkering down and believe they can survive until the world accepts them as a nuclear power.”

Rice conceded that sanctions are no certain solution. “I think we’ll be at this for a while,” she said. “I can’t tell you how long.”

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China closes three customs offices along Sino-N. Korean border: newspaper

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

Yonhap:
10/19/2006

China has closed three customs offices in northeastern China that handle trade with North Korea following Pyongyang’s nuclear test on Oct. 9, a report by the Communist Party-owned Global Times said Thursday.

The daily said the closures involved border offices in Donggang and Shanghekou, both in Liaoning Province, and one in the city of Tumen, in Jilin Province. Before the actions were taken, Beijing formally operated a total of four customs points with its neighbor.

It said at present only the customs point of Dandong, facing the North’s border city of Shinuiju across the Amnok River, was open to handle bilateral trade.

The paper also said that as of Tuesday, the number of vehicles coming over to Dandong stood at under three, compared to between 20 and 30 in the past.

The Global Times did not say if the closure or lack of vehicle traffic is due to the tensions surrounding North Korea’s nuclear weapons test. It added that Chinese merchants have started to ask for money in advance before shipping goods to North Korea, which is different from past practices when the delivery was sometimes made in advance of payment.

China, which is one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, signed off on a resolution last week authorizing economic sanctions to be imposed on North Korea. Pyongyang had disregarded warnings by Beijing not to test its nuclear device, which has raised speculation that the close ties that existed between them may have become frayed.

Related to the strained business ties, another Chinese weekly magazine claimed that a Chinese bank that provides funds to construction firms has stopped transactions with North Korea’s trade bank starting this year. The United States had been urging financial institutions around the world not to make transactions with North Korea that could help that country’s illicit trade and alleged money-laundering practices.

Another Chinese newspaper claimed that authorities have tightened their inspection of all cargo leaving North Korea since last week.

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Mount Kumgang tour struggles amid criticism

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

From the Joong Ang Daily:
10/19/2006
Seo Ji-eun

Hyundai Asan Corp. is facing another tough challenge to its Mount Kumgang tour operation amid mounting pressure to suspend business due to suspicions that it has inadvertantly helped North Korea develop nuclear weapons.

So far the company is still in business, but it may be forced to withdraw.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said on Tuesday that the Mount Kumgang tour “seems to be designed to give money to the North Korean authorities.”

According to Hyundai Asan, North Korea has received up to $457 million since 1999 in return for allowing Mount Kumgang tours.

Experts point out that the reason the United States opposes the tourism business while not objecting to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, also operated by Hyundai Asan, is because the majority of payments from the tour company go directly to the North Korean government. Kim Sung-han, head researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs & National Security, said, “The United States views the Kaesong Industrial Complex as acceptable in that the major portion of capital injected into that project consists of labor costs of the North Korean workforces in actual operation there. However, Mount Kumgang is understood as being mainly for the sake of the regime.”

Political critics speculate that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a meeting with the President Roh Moo-hyun scheduled for today, may officially request a halt for the program. There is speculation of a second North Korean nuclear test, which would likely increase international sanctions against the North.

Officials at Hyundai Asan are discussing ways to retain the tour business, which accounted for 40 percent of revenue last year. Tourists to the scenic resort in the North have sharply decreased of late, making it hard for Hyundai Asan to achieve its annual goal of 350,000 visitors.

The North Korean business arm of Hyundai Group is mulling the delivery of rice, medicine and fertilizer to sustain cash flow and quell notions that it is aiding North Korea.

An executive from Hyundai Motor Co. said, “We are afraid consumers in the United States might be confused. We have no choice but to explain that Hyundai Motor and Hyundai Asan belong to different groups.”

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Railways damaged by nuclear blast

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

From the Daily NK:
Kang Jae Hyok
10/19/2006

An inside source in North Korea told the Daily NK that operation of the railroads near Kilju area, where the U.S. and South Korean authorities suspected the nuclear test was conducted, was stopped due to fractures on the tunnels after the test.

And it is also informed that the cement sent by South Korea as part of the economic aid package was used to repair the cracked tunnels, indirectly contributing the nuclear test.

The source told the Daily NK in a telephone interview on Wednesday that “Railroad from Kilju to Baekam stopped carrying trains. And repair operation in the tunnels on the line started.” He said the train operation was interrupted because of fractures inside of tunnels, created after the nuclear test.

North Korean railroad tunnels are constructed strong enough to sustain shocks from trains moving through and earthquakes. Also tunnels are designed to provide shelters for trains in case of emergency.

According to the source, currently there are many tunnels in the Kilju area under repair and the cement aided by South Korea for reconstruction of flood damage is being used to repair the tunnels.

Kilju is located in the southernmost part of North Hamkyung Province. In the north, it borders with Ryangkang Province along the Mt. Mantap, which is indicated to be the site of nuclear test this month.

Also, Kilju is a transportation center at which railroads and highways cross; railroads include Pyong-Ra line from Pyongyang to Rajin, the northernmost port city in NK, and the Youth Baekdu line from Kilju to Hyesan. Near the Kilju station, there are many tunnels. In each railroad tunnel, KPA Railroad Guard is on sentry 24/7, and strangers are forbidden to enter into tunnels. The Railroad Guard is part of KPA organization and under authority of the National Security Agency, because Kim Jong-Il habitually rides train when inspecting the provinces.

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With Cash, Defectors Find North Korea’s Cracks

Thursday, October 19th, 2006

New York Times:
10/19/2006
Norimitsu Onishi
Su-hyun Lee

Last March, Lee Chun-hak, a 19-year-old North Korean, went to the Chinese border to meet with a North Korean money trafficker. Using the trafficker’s Chinese cellphone, Mr. Lee talked to his mother, who had defected to South Korea in 2003. She told him she was going to get him out.

Mr. Lee missed his mother and his sister and brother, and he had a persistent, if half-formed, desire. “I wanted to go to a country that is more developed,” he said, “even more developed than South Korea.”

In June, a young North Korean man appeared suddenly at his home with a message: “Mother is looking for you.” The man then took him by bicycle and foot to the border and handed him over to a North Korean soldier. At the soldier’s direction, Mr. Lee was ordered to leave his identification card and his Kim Il-sung badge, which is worn by all North Koreans to honor the nation’s founder.

The soldier then escorted Mr. Lee across the Tumen River, where on the other side two Chinese men in plainclothes handed the soldier his bribe. Mr. Lee was free to go.

The increasing ease with which people are able to buy their way out of North Korea suggests that, beneath the images of goose-stepping soldiers in Pyongyang, the capital, the government’s still considerable ability to control its citizens is diminishing, according to North Korean defectors, brokers, South Korean Christian missionaries and other experts on the subject. Defectors with relatives outside the country are tapping into a sophisticated, underground network of human smugglers operating inside North and South Korea, China and Southeast Asia.

Learning anything about such a secretive and unpredictable country as North Korea, which isolated itself further by carrying out a nuclear test on Oct. 9, is difficult. Scraps of information provided by defectors often prove unreliable, influenced as they can be by the organizations that shelter and support them while also championing political or religious causes.

But snapshots of life inside the North, and a picture of this smuggling network, emerged from interviews with 20 North Koreans in Bangkok, as well as with brokers, Christian missionaries, government officials and people working in private organizations, in both Thailand and South Korea. The North Koreans in Bangkok were interviewed independently and had all recently arrived in Thailand.

Pieced together, the accounts provide glimpses of a government that, while still a repressive police state, is progressively losing the paramount role it used to enjoy in society, before it found itself incapable of feeding its own people in the famine of the 1990’s. The power of ideology appears to be waning in this nation of about 22.7 million as people have been left to scrounge for themselves, and as information has begun to seep in from the outside world.

The effects of money and corruption appear to have grown sharply in recent years, as market liberalization has allowed ordinary people to run small businesses and has enabled people with connections to prosper in the booming trade with China.

In a country whose borders were sealed until a decade ago, defectors once risked not only their own lives but those of the family members they left behind, who were often thrown into harsh prison camps as retribution. Today, state security is no longer the main obstacle to fleeing, according to defectors, North Korean brokers, South Korean Christian missionaries and other experts. Now, it is cash.

“Money now trumps ideology for an increasing number of North Koreans, and that has allowed this underground railroad to flourish,” said Peter M. Beck, the Northeast Asia project director in Seoul, South Korea, of the International Crisis Group, which has extensively researched the subject in several Asian countries and is publishing a report. “The biggest barrier to leaving North Korea is just money. If you have enough money, you can get out quite easily. It speaks to the marketization of North Korea, especially since economic reforms were implemented in 2002. Anything can be bought in the North now.”

“The state’s control is weakening at the periphery,” Mr. Beck said, explaining that most refugees came out of the North’s rural areas but few from around Pyongyang, where the state’s grip remained strong.

During the North’s great famine in the mid- to late 1990’s, a tide of 100,000 to 300,000 North Koreans is believed to have simply washed into China, and tens of thousands are still believed to be living there illegally, according to human rights organizations. These days, the number of refugees is believed to be much smaller, though there are few reliable figures.

According to the South Korean government, of the 8,740 North Koreans who are known to have fled to the South since the end of the Korean War in 1953, nearly 7,000 arrived in the last four years alone.

But the cost of getting out is significant, according to experts, defectors, brokers and missionaries. There are bribes for the soldiers stationed at the heavily guarded border, a regular cut to their supervisors, money handed to a chain of officials. And that is just on the North Korean side.

At the high end, $10,400 will buy a package deal to get someone out of North Korea and, armed with a fake South Korean passport, on a plane or boat to South Korea within days, according to brokers and a 40-year-old North Korean woman now in South Korea who recently extracted her 14-year-old son. But most North Koreans in South Korea pay on average about $3,000 to get relatives out through China and then Southeast Asia or Mongolia.

Some exits are short-term. One 37-year-old North Korean in Seoul, an employee at a large auto parts maker, said he went to China in April to meet a friend, a journalist in North Korea whom he had not seen in 10 years. For a few hundred dollars, smugglers took the journalist to Yanji, a bustling Chinese town on the border with North Korea, where the two spent the weekend drinking and catching up, the man said in an interview in Seoul.

Like many interviewed for this article, he asked that his name be withheld, for fear of reprisals against friends and relatives still in North Korea. He carried stacks of a South Korean newspaper, The Chosun Ilbo, for the journalist, who had no interest in reading the political stories. Instead, he devoured the business pages, though he puzzled over words like “online,” and marveled at how far the South had outpaced the North economically.

At the end of the weekend, the defector returned to Seoul and his journalist friend to North Korea.

“Doing this would have been unimaginable a few years ago,” he said. “This kind of corruption didn’t exist back then. Now, everything revolves around money.”

Escaping a Shaky Economy

After the end of the cold war, North Korea’s economy collapsed and its leaders adopted a strategy of trying to secure its energy and other essentials by threatening to become a nuclear power. They have adhered to this strategy even as they put into effect economic reforms in 2002, adopting market prices, allowing citizens to run small businesses and joining with South Korea in economic projects.

Though still shaky, the North’s economy has improved thanks to trade with China and South Korea. It grew by 2.2 percent in 2004, the sixth consecutive year of expansion, according to the Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank. Defectors and brokers said North Koreans were fleeing their country to rejoin relatives in the South or to look for economic opportunities — not because they were starving, as they were in the 1990’s. The threat of political persecution remains, of course.

In Seoul, Do Sung-hak, 39, a North Korean who came to the South in 2002, said his older brother was sent to prison three years ago after someone reported the brother’s private comments that North Korea was not opening its economy fast enough.

A few months after his release early this year, the brother fled the North with Mr. Do’s help. He is now in Thailand.

Mr. Do, who works as a security guard, said he had arranged to get about 20 people out of the North, using ethnic Korean-Chinese contacts he had made while living for six years in northeast China.

After receiving a request, Mr. Do said he would call a Korean-Chinese intermediary, who would then call a North Korean with a Chinese cellphone that works inside North Korea near the border. The North Korean or a partner would then travel to the relative’s hometown — the price of the service varying according to the distance — and take that person back to the border, where he or she would then talk to the relative in South Korea on a cellphone and make arrangements.

“It doesn’t matter if the person lives in the middle of the country — of course, it takes longer, maybe 10 days,” Mr. Do said. “It’s only a question of money.”

North Koreans living in the South also send money to their relatives back home through the same method, with the brokers taking at least a 20 percent fee, brokers and North Korean defectors said.

A 49-year-old broker in Seoul — nine of whose clients have arrived in Thailand recently — said she operated the same way, adding that those involved in the business in North Korea were Communist Party members.

“You can do that kind of work — being able to travel freely inside North Korea — only if you’re a party member,” said the woman, who added that she earned $2,500 to $3,000 a month.

The demand for this smuggling service has risen along with the increasing number of North Koreans living in South Korea. The North Koreans in the South pay to get their relatives out by working to pay for the fees, borrowing money or using resettlement money awarded to them by South Korea.

One River, Many Hardships

The case of Lee Chun-hak, the 19-year-old who fled the North on June 28, is a typical one. For the past two months, he has been in the Immigration Detention Center in Bangkok, where his mother, Kim Myung-shim, 46, visited him from Seoul the other day.

Mrs. Kim fled to South Korea in 2003, remarried and began working to arrange the defection of Mr. Lee and her two other children, who lived with her former husband in a province bordering China.

The three children were set to leave in late 2005. But before crossing the Tumen River into China, Mr. Lee balked — he did not want to leave his father and grandmother. His older sister and younger brother went ahead and, thanks to the $5,200 paid to brokers, were smuggled into Mongolia and arrived in South Korea last February.

Mr. Lee returned to his everyday life, going to school and, like many others, earning a little money by working at a nearby gold mine. People farmed corn and beans in the area where the surrounding mountains have been stripped bare for firewood.

The economy had improved in recent years, as the authorities allowed people to moonlight at places like the gold mine and to start small businesses. Local residents ate regularly, Mr. Lee said, though the portions were small. Still, he saw perhaps only two or three cars a day, and most people walked or rode bicycles.

After a few months, his sister in Seoul persuaded him to leave. Mr. Lee was now an adult and would find it hard to keep living with his father, who had remarried, Mrs. Kim said.

So on June 27, after his sister had made arrangements with a broker, the North Korean man picked Mr. Lee up in his hometown and took him by bicycle to a spot near the border, where he spent the night, he said. The next afternoon, they rode the bicycle and then walked to the Tumen River. Mr. Lee waded across, accompanied by the soldier.

“As long as you pay the soldiers, you can cross,” Mrs. Kim said, adding that she had paid $3,600 to the brokers for her son’s escape — $1,000 for the North Korea leg and $2,600 for China.

He found his way through China and Laos to Thailand where, following the advice of the brokers, he gave himself up to the authorities. Thailand does not repatriate North Korean refugees, incarcerating them instead while their cases are processed through the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Bangkok. The process takes about three to four months, after which the North Koreans are sent to South Korea, though the United States recently accepted nine North Korea refugees.

Having learned that news in Bangkok, Mr. Lee said he no longer wanted to go to South Korea. “I want to go to the United States to study and become a scientist.”

Doubts About an Ideology

Many of the North Koreans interviewed in Thailand said they wanted to go to the United States, even though they were reared in a country that has demonized America for decades. In school in the North, one defector said, she had had been taught that Americans were “inhuman, promiscuous and dictatorial.”

“Even today, I still sometimes refer to the United States as ‘Imperialist America,’ ” she said, laughing.

But as a fourth grader, the woman said, she began to have doubts about that image of America, after she happened upon a photograph in a magazine. As she recalled, it showed a tightrope walker balanced on a wire between high-rise buildings in Washington. The implicit message was that the United States was such an inhumane country that it forced people to perform such jobs, she said.

“But what I remembered about that photo was the tall buildings,” she said. “There was also a beautiful park and clean, wide streets. It was fascinating. There was nothing like that where I grew up.”

North Korea still unleashes daily attacks against the United States through its official media, but the desire of many of the defectors interviewed to go to the United States suggests that the power of ideology is waning.

“After spending a few months in China, they change their minds about the United States,” said a South Korean missionary who regularly visits the North Koreans at the detention center. “In China, they have access to so much information. They look at Web sites and exchange instant messages with people in South Korea.”

Lee Chan, 36, who fled North Korea one year ago and entered Thailand in June, agreed that anti-American ideology was not as strong as it was in the past.

“People’s perceptions of the United States have changed inside North Korea,” he said. “I’ll give you one example. If you’re caught watching an American movie, the authorities will just swear at you — nothing else.”

In Bangkok, where South Korean Christian missionaries care for the defectors while trying to convert them, Lee Chun-hak’s mother, Mrs. Kim, was worried that her son had become too friendly with Mr. Lee, the defector who had emerged as a leader of the detainees. She was angry that her son had started smoking under Mr. Lee’s influence.

“Please look after Chun-hak,” the mother said to Mr. Lee, adding that her son had birthmarks on his head and face that foretold a great future. “That’s why I’m sending him to America.”

“Please guide my son,” she said, “even though he’s doing well alone.”

Mr. Lee, showing her a pack of Marlboros, said, “He’s doing well — he doesn’t smoke expensive cigarettes like I do.”

“Stop smoking!” the mother said.

A missionary began praying for Lee Chun-hak.

“Pray to God to send you to America,” the mother exhorted her son.
 

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ROK has transferred approx. $1B since 1998

Wednesday, October 18th, 2006

From the Joong Ang:
Ministry: North got $1 billion since 1998
10/18/2006
Lee Young-jong
Ser Myo-ja

The Unification Ministry yesterday defended itself against accusations that the Roh Moo-hyun administration and its predecessor, that of Kim Dae-jung, were at least partly responsible for giving the North the cash it needed to fund its nuclear weapons programs.

Ministry data released yesterday said that South Korea sent nearly $1 billion in cash to the North from March 1998 until August of this year. The ministry said those payments were in connection with “legitimate economic activities.” Nearly half of that cash flow, it said, was from tourism receipts at North Korea’s Mount Kumgang resort, and almost all the remainder was a $500 million payment by Hyundai Group to North Korea for exclusive rights to run the tours.

When Hyundai Group first began the tour program in 1998, Lim Dong-won, then the Blue House senior secretary for security affairs, ordered the Unification Ministry to devise ways of monitoring the payments to ensure that they were not diverted to military uses. But a Unification Ministry official recently admitted the obvious: “There was and is no way to see how the North spent the money,” he said.

The same is true in the other inter-Korean programs, although the amounts are relatively smaller. Nearly $21 million has been paid to the North in the Kaesong Industrial Complex project, including the wages of 800 North Korean workers there. The few million dollars remaining in the total were payments for South Koreans to attend events such as the annual Arirang Festival.

The ministry’s statement yesterday said the Hyundai payment of $500 million was made in August 2000. In fact, it was made in June, just before the first inter-Korean summit that month, and a special counsel who looked into the then-secret payment described it as an inducement for North Korea to agree to the summit. Seven persons were later convicted of violating Korea’s foreign exchange laws in connection with the matter.

Critics on the right believe the ministry’s estimates are woefully incorrect; the Grand National Party, for example, has put the amount at $8.4 billion over the past eight years.

The ministry also challenged the Grand National Party’s argument that South Korea had spent nearly 2.2 trillion won ($2.3 billion) for a failed light-water reactor project in North Korea.

The ministry said the figure was only about 1.4 trillion won.

It also noted that that project was an international one and had begun under the Kim Young-sam administration in 1994. Only a tiny part of that funding involved cash payments to North Korea, the ministry said.

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“Crossing the Line” makes its debut

Tuesday, October 17th, 2006

From the New York Times:
10/17/2006

Even at 64 years old and in failing health, James Dresnok projects an imposing figure. Six-foot-five with a huge frame and giant jowls, he speaks into the camera with a firm, distinct Southern accent. Metal teeth glint as he talks. “I will give you the truth; I’ve never told anyone before,” says Mr. Dresnok, a former soldier, a defector and, for the last 44 years, a resident of Pyongyang, North Korea.

Mr. Dresnok is at the center of Daniel Gordon’s documentary “Crossing the Line,” along with the stories of three other American defectors who crossed the 2.5-mile, landmine-strewn demilitarized zone to live in North Korea. The documentary is Mr. Gordon’s third look inside the secretive Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The first, “The Game of Their Lives,” examined the 1966 World Cup soccer team that defeated the Italian team and made it, against all odds, to the Cup’s quarterfinals. Then “A State of Mind” followed two young girls participating in the North’s overwhelming Mass Games.

The director met his co-producer, Nick Bonner, in 1997 while researching the North Korean soccer team. Mr. Bonner has been working with North Korea from Beijing for 14 years as the director of Koryo Tours, a travel agency. “The Game of Their Lives” made the two men minor celebrities in North Korea. “We have taken an apolitical viewpoint, with interviews from both sides of the spectrum,” Mr. Gordon wrote in an e-mail message. “Our previous films have been shown both in North and South Korea,” a testament to the neutrality of the films, he wrote.

But “Crossing the Line,” which had its world premiere on Monday night at the Pusan International Film Festival in South Korea, explores more political and controversial territory. “This was the story that we thought we could never tell,” Mr. Bonner said in an interview after the film’s premiere. “But we said to the North Koreans, if someone does not make this film soon, you won’t ever have any record.”

Mr. Dresnok was born poor in Norfolk, Va., in 1941. His parents divorced when he was 9. His father then abandoned him, and he ended up bouncing through a series of foster homes. On his 17th birthday he enlisted in the Army. When he returned from service in Germany, his wife wanted a divorce. Even now, decades later, the memory makes him cry. “I’m just thankful we never had any kids, because I swore I would never leave my children,” he says as he breaks down in the film.

Soon after, he re-enlisted and was assigned to South Korea, but his bitterness led him to spend his money on prostitutes and drinking. “I was fed up. If I died or I lived, I didn’t care.” At noon on Aug. 15, 1962, with a court martial looming for forging a pass, Pfc. James Dresnok took the 12-gauge shotgun he was cleaning and, wearing his fatigues, walked across the DMZ in broad daylight.

Once in the North, he joined Pvt. Larry Allen Abshier, who had defected three months earlier. In December 1963, Specialist Jerry Wayne Parrish also defected, and then Sgt. Charles Robert Jenkins in January 1965. Together, the four became propaganda heroes for the North.

After a couple of years in North Korea, though, the cultural differences felt overwhelming, so in 1966 the four fled to the Soviet Embassy in Pyongyang, asking for asylum. But the Russians turned them over to the North Koreans. Mr. Dresnok braced for a horrible punishment. But, he says, none came. They were ordered to undergo more “education,” Mr. Dresnok said, and he decided he would try to fit in. “Man is the master of his life, and little by little I came to understand the Korean people,” he said.

By 1972, Mr. Dresnok was considered rehabilitated and was granted North Korean citizenship. He married an Eastern European woman and had two children. After that wife died, he remarried and had another child. He started appearing in propaganda films in 1978 and acted in more than a dozen over the next decade. Many North Koreans still call him Mr. Arthur, after a character he played in one film.

Mr. Dresnok could barely contain his disgust when he talked about Mr. Jenkins, who left North Korea in 2004 and gave a series of high-profile interviews about the wretched life he endured in his four decades there. Mr. Dresnok calls him a liar and bore. As for Mr. Jenkins’s claim that Mr. Dresnok used to beat him sadistically, Mr. Dresnok responds that they once fought, but there were only two punches: “I hit him and he hit the ground.” After a few minutes he becomes visibly agitated and asks to change the subject.

Mr. Dresnok says he is a true believer in the North Korean system. “I wouldn’t trade it for nuthin’,” he states emphatically. He is proud that two of his three sons attend the prestigious Foreign Language School in Pyongyang, saying he could never have afforded such an education in the United States. “I don’t want my sons to be an illiterate old man like me.” But he is a celebrity in North Korea, and although Pyongyang is poor by Western standards, it is the city of the elite for North Koreans. “Anyone living in Pyongyang is privileged,” Mr. Bonner said. “But the main force behind us was human interest.”

But privilege is probably not the answer to understanding why Mr. Dresnok and the other American defectors decided to build their lives in North Korea; belief is. Three of the four American defectors, with the exception of Mr. Jenkins, came from broken homes, with missing or abusive fathers. They made homes in the most extreme totalitarian state in the world, where Kim Il-sung is portrayed at the ultimate father figure for the entire nation. Even though Mr. Dresnok has numerous health problems (mostly related to his smoking and drinking, which he refuses to stop), the North Korean government provides for him and his family.

Which leads into the second time Mr. Dresnok cries in the film. While talking about the North Korean famines of the 1990’s, he says that despite the hundreds of thousands who died, the North Koreans never cut his rations. “Why? Why do they let their own people starve to death to feed an American?” he asks as he tears up. “The Great Leader has given us a special solicitude. The government is going to take care of me until my dying day.”

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Is DPRK preparing for another ‘Arduous March’?

Tuesday, October 17th, 2006

From the Daily NK:
If a Second Tribulation March Arrives?
10/17/2006
Han Young Jin

On the 14th, the Rodong Shinmun, a N. Korean state newspaper, urged “We must take a strong conviction in regards to socialism and go out to fight with faith and optimism.” On the 13th, the Minju Chosun (Democratic Korea), the government organ, claimed “Even if we have to face the second and third ‘Tribulation March,’ you need not worry. Rather we must fight with overt confidence and audacity.”

Ever since the nuke experiments government channels have been using this propaganda This suggests that North Korean authorities were already prepared for sanctions by the international community.

People’s mentality “If you trust the nation, you will die of starvation”

During the first “Tribulation March” in the mid-90’s, about 300,000 people died over a period of 3 years from starvation. What would happen if the second tribulation march was to occur as a result of the U.N. North Korea resolution? How would it differ from the first?

The reason that 300,000 people died from starvation lies in the fundamental man-made disaster, where Kim Jong Il’s political ideology of “government teachings” and development of reform were abandoned after his death to “revival of one’s own strength.”

Beginning with munitions workers, about 50,000 people who trusted and were loyal to the government, including many intellectuals such as scientists and technicians died of starvation.

When comparing the past to the present, the people of the 90’s trusted only in their government as they did not have any other knowledge. Thus they were hit with a sudden blow, however this time it is different, as the North Korean people are already filled with “immunity.”

Above all, North Korean people are now aware of their own existence and are saying “If you trust the nation, you will die from starvation.” At the time, people tacitly in trade knew that they would not die of hunger. Today, high officials have changed their mentality and have abandoned the ideology of being the “People’s emissary” to ‘I must devise a plan to live, while I have the power.’

Since 2000, irrespective of whether or not the nation distributed rations in the fall, people have begun to devise their own ways to live. While city dwellers are living off their trade, villagers are providing their own rations through cultivation and farming off mountains.

After the 7.1 economic measures, capitalism was steadily introduced and the people’s spontaneity increased. Hence, this time it seems that the mass starvation of the mid-90’s may be escaped.

However, as a result of long term malnutrition, it is possible that many deaths will occur from disease and infectious epidemics.

A complete breakdown in industry and infrastructure

According to data from the World Food Program (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), North Korea’s output of grain in 95~96 was 4,070,000 tons and 2,874,000 tons in 96~97. This is a significantly low figure compared to the necessary amount of 6,400,000 tons.

Even today, little has changed. Last year, the typhoon caused an output of 4,800,000 tons of crop. Hence, the insufficient rations of the 90’s ‘Tribulation March’ period, is similar to this time.

During the first tribulation march, there was no electricity so factories ceased operations and workers began to sell equipment taken from their workplace in trade of rations. What happened was a collapse in the main infrastructure of factories.

The worker’s riot in 1996 that arose from suppression of operations at the Yellow Sea Iron Works, also originated from workers taking factory materials to trade for food. A defector from ‘September Iron Works’ in Pyongan said “During the tribulation march, everyone took materials from work to trade. If it occurs again, people will most probably dig up the main support.”

The infrastructure collapse of the 90’s was near to impossible to rebuild by North Korea alone. Since 1998, the economy has somewhat stabilized, however full reconstruction has never been acheived and rather only parts of the country has recovered.

The key point will be when China participates in the North Korea sanctions

If the second tribulation march was to occur, the main point will be commerce with China. Last March, Professor Xuwenji of Northeast Asia Research and Development Institute, Jilian University visited North Korea. He said “About 70% of North Korean markets are made up of Chinese products, 20% of products are made in North Korea and the remaining 10% is either Japanese or Russian products.”

Currently, daily necessary products such as toothbrushes, toothpaste, and soap, welding rods and even tires at North Korean markets are all made in China. In the case that the trade of daily necessities is disconnected, this will undoubtedly affect North Korea dramatically. In the end, the key point is to what extent China will compliantly follow the North Korea resolution.

The number of Chinese enterprises trying to evade North Korean investments is also variable. After North Korea’s nuclear experiment, rumors spread that Chinese banks beginning from Dandong had ceased remitting funds to North Korea and that many Chinese businesses had begun to suspend or terminate North Korean investments.

If commerce is suspended between North Korea and China, North Korea will not be able to satisfy all of its necessary daily products by relying on illicit trade.

There are also rumors that barbed wire will be placed bordering the region of the Yalu River, which will further affect smuggling of goods. As official trade between the two countries becomes illegal and daily necessities cannot be supplied from China through smuggling, the North Korean people will experience yet another fatal blow to their lives.

Furthermore, if North Korea does proclaim its second tribulation march and returns to the times of the mid-90’s, the Kim Jong Il regime could be greatly affected.

Above all, as the mentality of the people has changed, no longer will they listen submissively to the government. Rather, they will be more inclined to find ways to sustain their own life existence and make all attempts to defect to China. Amongst these circumstances, there may even be bloodshed between soldiers and the people.

Also, if high ranking military officials and soldiers decide that they cannot possibly live amongst these circumstances, it is possible that they will abandon their barracks. One thing is certain they will not simply sit around and wait to die from starvation. If high ranking military officials and soldiers did withdraw from their barracks on the mass, it is possible that the Kim Jong Il regime will face a threat to destruction.

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